Prices for San Francisco single family homes and condos climbed in October, and then fell back in November and December. Single family home values ended the year up in comparison to where they were at the beginning of 2016, while condo values were down a bit overall for the year.

1. san francisco Market recap
Fourth quarter 2016 Report
Annie Williams
Top 1% San Francisco Realtors
415.819.2663
awilliams@hill-co.com
www.AnniewilliamsHomes.com
BRE License #01393923
Home Price Appreciation Over the Last 10 Years
Prices for San Francisco single family homes and condos
climbed in October, and then fell back in November and
December. Single family home values ended the year up
in comparison to where they were at the beginning of 2016,
while condo values were down a bit overall for the year.
The rate of home value appreciation has slowed since the
Spring of 2015, but it might be worth looking back some for
perspective on where the market is, and where it has been.
The three charts below help illustrate the point. They depict
Median Sales Price for single family homes (in orange)
and condos and lofts (in purple).
The chart on the left presents the last five years. In February
of 2011, the median price for a single family home in the
City was just $621,000. The median price for a condo was
$563,500. At the end of December 2016, those figures had
increased to $1,315,000 and $1,015,000, respectively.
While property values for much of the rest of the
country are just now catching up to their pre-downturn
highs, SF values have been climbing dramatically, as
the chart for price gains over the last ten years (top
right) indicates. With that in mind, the slow down in
appreciation that we’ve seen over the past 18 months
is not unexpected.Office: (415) 921-6000
gdemartini@hill-co.com
Garey De Martini (CAL BRE #)
Hill & Co.
Each data point is one month of activity. Data is from January 10, 2017.
All data from the San Francisco MLS. InfoSparks © 2017 ShowingTime.
Median Sales Price - By Property Type
San Francisco County
1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016
$0.6M
$0.8M
$1.0M
$1.2M
$1.4M
$1.6M
$0.4M
Single Family Condo & Loft
Office: (415) 921-6000
gdemartini@hill-co.com
Garey De Martini (CAL BRE #)
Hill & Co.
Each data point is one month of activity. Data is from January 10, 2017.
All data from the San Francisco MLS. InfoSparks © 2017 ShowingTime.
Median Sales Price - By Property Type
San Francisco County
1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016
$0.6M
$0.8M
$1.0M
$1.2M
$1.4M
$1.6M
$0.4M
Single Family Condo & Loft
Office: (415) 921-6000
gdemartini@hill-co.com
Garey De Martini (CAL BRE #)
Hill & Co.
Each data point is one month of activity. Data is from January 10, 2017.
All data from the San Francisco MLS. InfoSparks © 2017 ShowingTime.
Median Sales Price - By Property Type
San Francisco County
1-2015 1-2016
$0.9M
$1.0M
$1.1M
$1.2M
$1.3M
$1.4M
$1.5M
$0.8M
Single Family Condo & Loft
Median Sales Price Over Past 5 Years
Median Sales Price Over Past 10 Years
Median Sales Price Over Past 2 Years

2. As the new administration assumes office, a question
many homeowners and buyers are asking is, “how will
this impact home prices?”
There actually seems to be some consensus among
industry executives and analysts on this particular
matter. All seem to agree that while some uncertainty
exists, some trends and developments appear to be
more foreseeable based on current market conditions.
Perhaps it’s worth noting first that Jonathan Smoke,
chief economist at Realtor.com, analyzed five
presidential elections that took place in the past 20
years and found that they had no consistent impact on
home sales or prices - beyond a three-mile radius of
Capitol Hill where there was a great deal of turnover as
would be expected when administrations change.
Other factors such as economic booms and busts, and
interest rates, have had a greater influence.
The trends we’ve noted recently will likely continue
unabated. Interest rates will still rise - though
remaining low in comparison to where rates have been
in the past. Affordability and a low inventory of homes
for sale will continue to be major challenges. On the
plus side, the fundamentals favor improvement in the
housing market, as population and income growth should
support housing demand going forward.
The financial markets seem to favor the new administration,
which means that the housing market is bound to react
in a similar manner. In fact, the National Association of
Home Builders announced that confidence among the
residential construction sector is at a nine-year high.
That said, a number of analysts are nevertheless simply
brushing off the idea of the new administration having
a profound effect on the market. This rationale is
based on the fact that the housing market should have
reacted negatively to the rough and tumble nature of
the 2015-2016 political scene. Yet nothing of the sort
happened; this can be construed as the housing market
operating independently from political sentiment.
The New Administration and Home Prices
Fourth Quarter Home Sales By Neighborhood*
*Single family homes and condos combined per the San Francisco Association of REALTORS®. Does not include off market sales. These figures present
a snapshot of the market to give you a sense of what is taking place. A single home’s value may be higher or lower than what is presented here, and
the appreciation or depreciation you see may not apply. For example, median sale price means half the homes in that neighborhood sold under that
amount, and half sold over. There can be dramatic differences between the high value and the low value, and the median figure does not show that.

3. Hard to spot concrete trends in these
fourth quarter numbers. Prices were
higher in October, and then fell off
a bit in November and December
for both single family homes and
condominiums. The volume of sales
increased year over year in November,
but decreased in October and
December for both property types.
It’s important to keep in mind that
these are aggregate figures for the City
as a whole. Homes on your block may
have sold more or less quickly, for more
or less money.
Districts 5, 7 and 8 include some of
the City’s pricier neighborhoods - Noe
Valley, Pacific Heights, Nob Hill, Russian
Hill and the like. We include this chart
to give residents in these districts a
truer representation of their property
values and to provide them with a
better picture of the activity that has
taken place in their neighborhoods over
the past three months.
The prices you see in these
neighborhoods are dramatically higher
than the prices you see in the City
overall, but the trends are typically very
similar.
Fourth Quarter Snapshot: All of San Francisco
Fourth Quarter Snapshot: Districts 5, 7 and 8
What to Expect from Chinese Buyers in 2017
You may have heard that China’s foreign exchange
regulator announced a new policy on January 1, 2017,
that affects all individuals who are looking to buy
overseas real estate. Chinese citizens will now have to
fill out an application form stating the purpose of their
foreign purchase.
China is so worried about its falling currency that it is
hoping to monitor the purpose of every individual Chinese
citizen who is looking to transfer money overseas.
What does this mean in terms of their propensity for
U.S. real estate investments? According to a piece
written for the real estate news provider Inman.com,
the impact may be negligible.
It seems that Chinese investors will continue to find
ways around the controls, just as they have done in
recent years with less stringent regulations. However,
the new restrictions may lengthen the time it takes to
complete an overseas property purchase. It may take
more than six months to get a close.
Ironically, the new regulations may cause demand for
overseas real estate to increase, as the Chinese upper
class is getting increasingly nervous about both the
currency weakening and tightening restrictions.
Concerned about these same issues, the Chinese middle
class is also now interested in investing overseas. However,
they will likely focus on second and third-tier U.S. cities.

4. Listings from around the World
Ono Island, Fiji: 4BD/2BA
Offered at $1,495,000
ASIA, AUSTRALIA, AND THE SOUTH PACIFIC
Europe
Caribbean
Arquà Petrarca, Italy: 6BD/4BA
Offered at $2,639,486
Turks and Caicos Islands: 4BD/2BA
Offered at $1,595,000
Vanua Levu, Fiji: 11BD/11BA
Offered at $13,888,000
Mykonos, Greece: 4BD/3BA
Offered at $633,477
Dominical, Costa Rica: 5BD/7BA
Offered at $3,000,000
Kerikeri, New Zealand: 4BD/4BA
Offered at $2,027,099
Moraira, Spain: 5BD/3BA
Offered at $3,695,281
San Pedro Town, Belize: 8BD/5BA
Offered at $1,499,000
To see more homes like this, visit www.hill-co.com
and click on our “International” tab.