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The University of Texas at Dallas
2016 Spring
Securities Analysis Competition
NYSE: DPZ Recommendation: Sell
Industry: QSR – Pizza Current Price: $138.62
Sector: Consumer Discretionary Target Price: $112.47
This report is published for education purposes
only by students competing in the Spring 2016
Security Analysis Competition
*Target share price for the next 6 months
Closing Price: 138.62$
52- Week High-Low: $ 139.42- $ 98.60
Shares Outstanding: 50.32M
EPS (LTM): 3.55$
Market Cap: $ 6.98B
LTMDividend Yield: 1.10%
Short Interest: 7.45%
Beta: 0.80
EV/ EBITDA: 20.6 x
P/E: 39.1 x
Insitutional Holdings: 94.50%
Insider Holdings: 0.40%
Market Profile
Investment Highlights
We initiate our coverage on Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) with a Sell
recommendation derived from a price target of $112.47, representing a
potential downside of 19%. Our recommendation is primarily driven by the
following:
 It Started With the Turnaround. In 2010, Domino’s changed their
business model, revamping their recipes and increasing innovative
technology. Although not the first company to have online ordering,
Domino’s has adapted better and more quickly to consumers’ desire
for more easily accessible digital ordering. In addition, Domino’s
continues their innovation with the advent of the Domino’s Ultimate
Delivery Vehicle (DXP) and the Domino’s Robotic Unit (DRU).
 The Fleeting Nature of Same Store Sales Growth. Domino’s posted
strong domestic same store sales (SSS) growth of 12% in 2015 versus
SSS growth of 7.5% in 2014. The firm had international SSS growth of
7.8% in 2015 versus 6.9% in 2014. However, SSS growth has been
historically volatile; facing this record-high SSS growth will be
difficult for the company and future expectations of growth.
 High Debt Load on Their Shoulders. Since IPO, Domino’s has had a
large amount of debt. The company has refinanced three times in the
last ten years, increasing total debt to $2.24 billion. This is in addition
to their existing negative equity. Furthermore, Domino’s has low cash
flows and cash on hand, making it difficult for the company to pay
back debt without interrupting operations. There is a high probability
that they will have to refinance their debt, and at a higher interest rate.
Key Financials FY 2015 FY 2016E FY 2017E
Revenue: 2,217$ 2,419$ 2,661$
Op. Margin: 405 446 487
Net Margin: 193 207 235
EPS: 3.58 3.87 4.42
ROA: 36.3% 37.3% 37.3%
ROIC: 70.2% 81.2% 81.2%
Valuation Method Weight Price
DCF Valuation 50% 112.51$
P/E Valuation 50% 112.43$
Implied Valuation 112.47$
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
Historical Share Price
NYSE:DPZ - Share Pricing ^SPX - Share Pricing Price Target
2 | P a g e
Source: Bloomberg
Source: RestaurantNews
Source: Investor Presentation
Top Markets Store Count Potential Store Count % Saturation
U.K./ Ireland 881 1,200 73.4%
Australia/
New Zealand
653 900 72.6%
S. Korea 415 500 83.0%
Japan 384 850 45.2%
Canada 384 650 59.1%
France 250 1,000 25.0%
Netherlands 170 300 56.7%
Spain 153 350 43.7%
Taiwan 130 150 86.7%
Developed Markets
Top Markets Store Count Potential Store Count % Saturation
India 950 1,800 52.8%
Mexico 610 700 87.1%
Turkey 457 700 65.3%
Saudi Arabia 154 250 61.6%
Malaysia 142 350 40.6%
Brazil 129 500 25.8%
Emerging Markets
Source: Bloomberg, Team Research
Business Description
Domino’s Pizza Inc. (DPZ) is the second largest pizza chain in the world,
trailing behind Pizza Hut, but is the leader in pizza deliveries. The company
was established in 1960 by brothers Tom and James Monaghan, and was sold
to Bain Capital in 1998. Subsequently, in 2007, the company went public and
Bain Capital sold their interest in 2010. Domino’s is currently headquartered
near Ann Arbor, Michigan in the Domino’s Farms Office Park. Domino’s
currently has over 12,500 locations in approximately 80 countries worldwide,
with the largest international market being in India. Domestically, Domino’s
biggest revenue driver is their supply chain which accounts for 62% of
consolidated revenues, or $1.38 billion. This business model has allowed them
to oversee the quality, type of equipment, and food they serve on a consistent
basis. The company plans on expanding their international reach by offering
items specialized to the region they are in. In 2012, Domino’s started
incorporating mobile technology into their ordering system by introducing
their app in the Amazon, Apple, and Google online stores.
Company Strategies
 Supply Chain – Domino’s supply chain model, which accounts for
62% of consolidated revenues, enables the company to implement a
universal standardized product throughout all its stores, and create an
additional stream of revenue. Additionally, Domino’s incentivizes
franchisees to procure supplies from the company through a profit
sharing agreement of 50%.
 Keeping it Simple – Domino’s focuses their efforts on products they
currently serve, rather than spending their resources on launching and
promoting new products. Within the past 3 years, they have only
introduced 2 new items. Domino’s encourages their franchisees to
emphasize on the basics of quality pizza and quick delivery.
 Progress in Technology – Domino’s has progressively taken strides to
incorporate various forms of technology on their platforms, ranging
anywhere from apps to voice recognition software. Recently, they
launched AnyWare, a system where customers can order via text,
tweet, or voice on various platforms. Domino’s has capitalized on the
shift in consumer ordering preferences, with over 50% of orders made
digitally.
 Renovation of Stores – Domino’s has introduced a new Pizza Theater
design where customers can watch their pizza being made from order
to completion. This goes in line with the marketing concept of
complete transparency. These renovations allow them to
contemporize their image and keep up with changing trends.
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Source: Proxy Statement
Source: Proxy Statement
Source: Proxy Statement
Source: Proxy Statement
Source: Team Research
Management & Culture
Domino’s executive board consists of the Chairman of the Board of
Directors, CEO, CFO, presidents of U.S. operations, and international
operations followed by nine Executive Vice Presidents, and seven Directors.
The leadership team brings an extensive variety of experiences, which
allows them to lead the company in a positive direction.
Since CEO, J. Patrick Doyle, came in to leadership, shares in Domino’s have
considerably risen in value, as he pushed for rapid international expansion.
He was recognized as the
Number 1 Best CEO of 2011
by CNBC and his approval
ratings remain positive as
he transformed Domino’s from a pizza company to a technology company.
Russell J. Weiner, the Chief Marketing Officer and President of Domino’s
USA, came to Domino’s in 2008 from PepsiCo. Weiner saw a need in
Domino’s for a new marketing strategy when he arrived, and he came up with
an idea that Domino’s should use radical honesty to gain the trust of
consumers. Domino’s released a series of self-critical advertisements that used
this idea and they experienced improved results starting in the first quarter of
2010.
Industry Overview and Competitive Positioning
Threat of New Entrants (Moderate-High)
There is high domestic market saturation. In the previous three years, nearly
3,000 new pizza restaurants were created in the United States, bringing it to a
total of 74,812. There are few barriers to entry due to low capital requirements
and a low interest rate environment that provides easier access to funding.
Also, there is limited amounts of governmental regulations on local pizza
restaurants and small chains. The majority of regulations these restaurants
have to comply with are health and safety concerns, which are numerous but
low-cost.
However, there is still high pricing competition, as the trend in bigger chains
is to offer more discounts and deals. New entrants are forced to respond at
the cost of their revenues, which affects their return on investment and give
new entrants a cost disadvantage. There is a reliability on speedy distribution
channels and high quality ingredients, leading to increases in respect to the
cost-burden on small chain and independent stores. There is high brand
“Smart hustle and results-driven. Demanding and
customer-focused. Passionate and innovative. Fun
with a family feel.” - Domino’s Company Culture
Name Age Position
J. Patrick Doyle 52 President/CEO
Jeffrey D. Lawrence 42 CFO & EVP
Richard E. Allison, Jr 49 President
Scott R. Hinshaw 53 EVP
Russell J. Weiner 47 President
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Source: Bloomberg, Team Research
Source: WSJ, Team Research
Source: Investor Presentation
Source: Wired
awareness and brand loyalty. The pizza industry is primarily dominated by
established brands, such as Domino’s, Pizza Hut, Papa John’s, and Little
Caesars. These brands claim a large portion of customers due to the brand
recognition that consumers strongly recognize.
Bargaining Powers of Buyers (High)
There is high price sensitivity, especially in the aftermath of the recession.
Buyers want the best pizza for the cheapest price. Since there is low product
differentiation, buyers are willing to sacrifice quality for savings. With the
higher availability of digital ordering, buyers are able to easily assess which
restaurants offer better discounts.
Bargaining Powers of Suppliers (Low)
The switching costs to alternative suppliers is low, and there is a large number
of suppliers, thus putting pressure on them to be competitive in terms of
quality. Some buyers have contracts with fees for early termination, but these
fees are a small cost when compared to the purchased volume. Additionally,
many pizza chains have long-term relationships with suppliers, which brings
down costs for the buyers and also puts pressure on suppliers to keep this
consistent revenue stream. With a large labor supply and very few labor
unions in the pizza industry, the labor force does not have leverage against
their employers, resulting in relatively low labor costs that are reflected in
product prices.
Threat of Substitutes (High)
The pizza segment is a relatively small faction of the entire QSR sector which
results in readily available replacements for consumers. Many restaurants are
offering delivery options which cuts into the competitive edge of pizza
restaurants. There is also a growing trend towards fast-casual restaurants,
which is a disadvantage for most pizza chains, as they are quick-service
restaurants. There is a trend towards a healthier diet, negatively impacting the
pizza industry. In the pizza industry, there is low differentiation in products,
so consumers have a wide variety of choice.
Competitive Rivalry (High)
There is strong market competition between not only major brands, but also
between local chains. Smaller local and family-owned chains minimize the
profit share of the larger brands. In an attempt to grow customer loyalty, the
larger brands are launching loyalty programs to counteract the adverse effects
of the low switching cost. Pizza restaurants have traditionally low margins,
due to a high cost of sales and lower pricing in order to compete with other
restaurants. High concentration of pizza restaurants, up to 3.87 stores per
10,000 people, creates an even more competitive market where consumers
have many choices in their local areas.
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Percentage of Obese
Adults
Source: Investor Presentation
7%
5%
6%
7%
8%
4%
3%
5%
8%
12%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Same Store Sales Growth
International Domestic
Source: Bloomberg, Team Research
93%
7%
Revenue by Geographic Segment
Domestic International
Technological Trends
The pizza industry in 2015 had a decrease in total sales by .05%, based off
PMQ 2016 Pizza Power Report, and an average same store sales decrease of
2.34% This negatively impacts Independent chains (with fewer than 10 stores),
which had total sales drop by 5.01% and average sales drop by 3.21%. The
pizza market as a whole has seen a decrease in independent chains market
share from 41% to 39% from 2014 to 2015.
The negative shift in the demand for independent chains is attributable to the
positive shift of consumer spending to digital platforms. Millennials are the
largest share of the consumers of pizza, and they prefer ordering online. These
trends towards digital ordering are lost on independent chains that are slow
to adapt to this electronic environment. This coupled with the value priced
menu has increased Domino’s same store sales by 12%. Approximately half
of Domino’s orders now come through one of its twelve digital platforms,
even by tweeting an emoji of pizza. Domino’s CEO Patrick Doyle told
investors that digital ordering leads to higher volumes and repeat customers.
Digital ordering is growing 300% faster than dine-in traffic, and mobile
ordering is now 23% of all food ordering.
Health Trends
Consumers are also trending towards what they perceive as healthy foods.
This perception is based on the idea that food labels and ingredient lists
should be eligible to the layman. With growing trends towards organic, non-
GMO, and gluten free foods, restaurants that do not follow these trends are
less likely to get repeat customers. The best example of this is Chipotle, which
has created a menu of non-GMO and humanely-raised meat. This allows
consumers to believe that they are eating healthy food, even though the
average calorie count for a burrito is over 900 calories. An example of this
within the industry is with Papa John’s revealing that their vegetables are
freshly cut in restaurants and meats have no fillers. They even go so far as to
disclose the material that the pizza box is made out of. Although the essence
of the product hasn’t changed, the transparent disclosure of ingredient puts
Papa John’s in a good light with the customer. A study by Janet Polvy and
Peter Herman published in Science Direct found that when people perceive
the food as healthier, they eat 35% more than the food they perceive as
unhealthy. Rising health concerns lie primarily within the U.S., which is
where a significant portion of the companies’ revenue is generated.
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Team Research
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Source: Team Research
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Valuation Method Weight Price
DCF Valuation 50% 112.51$
P/E Valuation 50% 112.43$
Implied Valuation 112.47$
0
1
2
3
4
5
Opportunties
Strengths
Weaknesses
Threats
SWOT
Source: Team Research
Investment Summary
We initiate our report with a Sell recommendation on Domino’s Pizza with a
target price of $112.47. Our price target came from the use of a Discounted
Cash Flow Analysis and Relative Valuation. Our recommendation is based
upon Domino’s large amount of debt, changing consumer preferences
towards fast-casual, and high valuation multiples.
Adding Debt Through Refinancing – Since Domino’s went public in 2004,
they have had a large amount of debt on their balance sheet. Over time, this
debt has increased approximately 200% through three refinancing deals. This
debt is troublesome because of the lack of strong cash flows that Domino’s
generates. Only recently has the company had a positive net change in cash
over $20 million. Although the likelihood of refinancing remains high in the
future, if the deal were to not go through, Domino’s would be severely
negatively impacted, as it has the potential to decrease the company’s
earning’s power. Furthermore, the company has negative equity, and has had
a history of working with this retained deficit. Taking out additional debt,
while paying extremely high one-time special dividends during two of its
three recapitalization deals, seems to imply that Domino’s is taking needless
risks.
Fast-Casual Upwards Trend – The QSR industry has been growing slower in
the past several quarters because of changing consumer preferences. There
has been, and continues to be, a shift towards fast-casual restaurants. These
restaurants offer slightly higher quality food and no stigma attached to quick-
service, or “fast food.” This shift is based on how consumers perceive the fact
that a slight increase in price offers a better quality of food. Furthermore, these
restaurants offer an atmosphere that is generally not found in quick-service
restaurants, geared towards a more family-friendly environment.
Over-valued – In fiscal year 2015, Domino’s had its best record to date. Their
same-store sales growth for domestic companies reached a new high. Shortly
after the company released its earnings in Q4, the stock price shot up
approximately 30% in just a few days. This led to a higher P/E ratio of about
39x, when Domino’s usual P/E range is between 28x-32x, and their
competitors’ P/E’s are around 29x. In almost all other multiples, Domino’s is
trading at a significant premium relative to its competitors. Domino’s growth
factors seem to have been priced into the stock, but we do not see these factors
as being sustainable.
7 | P a g e
Source: Bloomberg, Team Research
Source: Bloomberg, Team Research
Source: Bloomberg, Team Research
Financial Analysis
The financial analysis table highlights Domino’s net income margin growth
and the EBITDA margin growth. The growth in net income margin stems
from continued Same Store Sales growth on both the domestic and
international fronts, as well as new store expansion. With these large net
income growths over the years, we expect that Domino’s will continue to hit
economies of scale and increase its EBITDA margin by lowering its average
costs. Improvements in SG&A margin is due to higher efficiency, as Domino’s
continues to digitalize their operations through their PULSE point of sale
system and online ordering access points.
We expect that the ROA and ROC will arrive at 37.3% and 89.2%, respectively,
next year. The firm has utilized its assets and capital more effectively over the
year, which, in turn, increased return for their shareholders. We expect these
to gradually improve with increased use of technology.
The low short term liquidity ratios indicates weakness in the company. A
majority of the cash is used to further growth operations, such as new store
creation and restructuring existing stores (Pizza Theater design). This
increases risk due to Domino’s high debt load and subsequent interest
payments. Without enough cash on hand, Domino’s will not be able to pay
back their debt when it all comes due. Thus, this long-term debt, while
financing current operations and reducing credit crunch risk, may negatively
impact future cash flows.
Financial Ratios FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E
Profitability Ratios
Return on Assets % 34.5% 36.8% 39.1% 39.2% 36.3% 37.3% 37.3% 37.3%
Return on Capital % 67.2% 75.6% 83.2% 83.3% 70.2% 81.2% 81.2% 81.2%
Efficiency Ratios
Accounts Receivable Turnover 19.7x 18.5x 18.0x 17.8x 17.7x 18.3x 19.1x 18.9x
Accounts Payable Turnover 18.7x 16.0x 15.6x 16.5x 15.9x 17.2x 17.2x 17.2x
Margin Analysis
Gross Margin % 28.5% 29.9% 30.5% 29.8% 30.8% 30.8% 30.8% 30.8%
SG&A Margin % 12.8% 13.0% 13.0% 12.2% 12.5% 12.4% 12.5% 12.6%
EBITDA Margin % 17.1% 18.1% 18.6% 19.1% 19.4% 19.6% 19.5% 19.5%
Net Income Margin % 6.4% 6.7% 7.9% 8.2% 8.7% 18.4% 18.3% 18.5%
Short Term Liquidity
Current Ratio 1.7x 1.3x 1.4x 1.6x 1.6x 1.1x 1.1x 1.1x
Cash Ratio 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x 0.7x 0.8x 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x
Coverage Ratios
Total Debt/EBITDA 5.1x 5.2x 4.6x 3.9x 5.2x 3.0x 3.0x 3.0x
Net Debt/EBITDA 5.0x 5.0x 4.5x 3.9x 4.9x 2.9x 2.9x 2.9x
EBITDA / Interest Exp. 3.1x 3.0x 3.8x 4.4x 4.3x 4.4x 4.4x 4.4x
Leverage Ratios
Total Debt/Capital 600.9% 692.9% 624.0% 532.9% 508.6% 417.9% 417.9% 417.9%
Total Liabilities/Total Assets 351.7% 379.3% 345.6% 304.5% 325.1% 248.6% 248.6% 248.6%
8 | P a g e
Source: Team Research
Source: Team Research
Source: Team Research
Source: Team Research
Perpetuity Growth Method
Terminal Value: 9,004,188
Terminal Growth Rate 2.5%
PV of Terminal Value 6,872,116
Present Value of FCFF: 1,254,319
Implied Enterprise Value 8,126,435
Less: Debt & Capital Leases (2,240,793)
Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalent 321,982
Less: Pension: -
Implied Equity Value 6,207,624
Dilued Share Outstanding 55,172
Implied Share Price 112.51$
Premium/(Discount) to Current -18.8%
One of the biggest risks is Domino’s high debt load, shown through the
historical Net Debt/EBITDA ratios. This multiple over 4x indicates concern for
a company. Our projections have this ratio decreasing to approximately 2.9x
due to an assumption that Domino’s would pay off a significant portion of
their debt in the near future.
Valuation
To value Domino’s, we primarily utilized two valuation methodologies. We
incorporated a Discounted Cash Flow Model, and a Company Comparable
Analysis in order to take advantage of both the intrinsic and relative valuation
methods. As a result, we reached our target share price subsequently.
DCF Model (50%) – Our valuation model projects FCF for the next 5 fiscal
years and assumes a terminal growth rate of 2.5%. As part of the quick-service
restaurant industry, Domino’s has revealed to be less cyclical and volatile
compared to the market. We used an effective tax rate of 37%. Additionally,
we project that Domino’s will grow in line with the expected U.S. GDP of
2.5%.
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) – For our calculation of WACC,
we used a risk-free rate of 2.2% as stated on the 20-year Treasury bond and a
5.2% market risk premium. The cost of equity is estimated using the CAPM
model using the rates from above. We obtained a beta of 0.8 because of the
less cyclical nature of the company as demonstrated through their historical
performance. Additionally, we based Domino’s cost of equity on their market
value, rather than their book value, as the company has negative common
equity on their balance sheet. To find the cost of debt, we used the BBB-
default spread and added it to the 20-year Treasury rate. By weighting debt
and equity by their market values, we calculated a WACC of 5.55%.
Relative Valuation (50%) – Our set of comparable companies consists of
Domino’s direct competitors in the QSR Pizza industry, as well as high-
growth companies in the overall QSR industry. We removed companies that
were incompatible with Domino’s business model. Our relative valuation
emphasized P/E multiples. We used the 75th percentile P/E for Domino’s due
to their outperformance against the industry average.
Comparable P/E 32.4 x
Diluted EPS (DPZ) 3.47$
Implied Price (DPZ) 112.43$
P/E Valuation
Multiple Turn Price
2016E EBITDA 13.0x 138.21
2017E EBITDA 11.8x 103.69
Comparable Valuation
9 | P a g e
Source: Team Research
Source: Team Research
Source: Capital IQ
Source: Team Research
FR
OR2
MR2 MR1
OR1
Impact
Probability
Sensitivity Valuation Factors
Investment Risks
Financial Risk:
Higher Availability of Liquidity (FR) – Domino’s, as of January 3rd, 2016, had
$2.24 billion dollars’ worth of debt. Without a recapitalization, Domino’s
would be forced to pay off their large debt all at once. However, if credit
availability remains high, and the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates,
Domino’s can continue to refinance their debt obligations with no significant
negative impact on operations.
Market Risks:
Bullish Global Economic Conditions (MR1) – If the global economy grows
quickly compared to the current sluggishness, people will have more
discretionary income. This could lead to an increase in income allocation
towards eating out, which, in turn, would increase traffic per store and
enhance the overall QSR industry performance.
Independent Chains Continue to Underperform (MR2) – Independent chains are
losing market share, and this market share is being absorbed by major chains.
This contributed to Domino’s stellar same store sales growth in the last year.
Operational Risks
Implementation of Technological Improvements (OR1) – If Domino’s recent
innovations in technology exceed expectations, it could improve operating
efficiency. It would enable them to take cost-cutting measures as human
capital would become less of a necessity.
Success from Pizza Theater Design (OR2) – Successful implementation of the
Pizza Theater Design could increase customer traffic in Domino’s stores,
leading to higher sales volume as well as increased same store sales growth.
Terminal FCF Growth Rate
11251.3% 1.5% 1.8% 2.0% 2.3% 2.5% 2.8% 3.0% 3.3% 3.5%
4.6% 124.47$ 136.96$ 151.91$ 170.10$ 192.72$ 221.64$ 259.88$ 312.82$ 390.98$
4.8% 111.05 121.42 133.65 148.27 166.08 188.22 216.52 253.95 305.77
5.1% 99.56 108.28 118.44 130.41 144.72 162.15 183.82 211.52 248.15
5.3% 89.63 97.05 105.59 115.52 127.24 141.25 158.31 179.52 206.64
5.6% 80.97 87.33 94.59 102.95 112.68 124.14 137.86 154.56 175.32
5.8% 73.35 78.85 85.08 92.19 100.37 109.89 121.12 134.54 150.89
6.1% 66.60 71.39 76.78 82.88 89.84 97.85 107.17 118.16 131.31
6.3% 60.58 64.79 69.48 74.76 80.73 87.54 95.38 104.51 115.27
6.6% 55.19 58.90 63.02 67.62 72.78 78.63 85.30 92.97 101.91
DiscountRate
(WACC)
10 | P a g e
Appendices
Table of Contents
Appendix 1: Management & Governance ........................................................................................................................... 11
Appendix 2: Shares Outstanding Ownership..................................................................................................................... 12
Appendix 3: 2016 Macro Outlook......................................................................................................................................... 13
Appendix 4: Income Statement............................................................................................................................................. 14
Appendix 5: Balance Sheet..................................................................................................................................................... 15
Appendix 6: Statement of Cash Flows ................................................................................................................................. 16
Appendix 7: Debt Schedule ................................................................................................................................................... 17
Appendix 8: Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement Drivers ........................................................................................ 10
Appendix 9: Expense Assumptions...................................................................................................................................... 19
Appendix 10: Revenue Assumptions................................................................................................................................... 20
Appendix 11: PULSE Point of Sale System.......................................................................................................................... 21
Appendix 12: Domino’s and Competitors SWOT.............................................................................................................. 22
Appendix 13: WACC.............................................................................................................................................................. 23
Appendix 14: DCF................................................................................................................................................................... 23
Appendix 15: Comparable Companies................................................................................................................................ 24
Appendix 16: Comprehensive Ratio Analysis .................................................................................................................... 25
Appendix 17: Recent Litigation............................................................................................................................................. 26
Appendix 18: Sensitivity Analyses....................................................................................................................................... 27
Works Cited ............................................................................................................................................................................. 28
11 | P a g e
Appendix 1: Management & Governance
Company Executives
Board of Directors
Name Age Position Compensation Role Start Date
David A. Brandon 63 Chairman of the Board of Directors 03/1999
J. Patrick Doyle 52 President, Chief Executive Officer and Director $3,644,550.00 03/2010
Jeffrey D. Lawrence 42 Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President $733,283.00 08/2015
Eric B. Anderson 43 Executive Vice President of International Operations 01/2016
Richard E. Allison, Jr 49 President, International $1,302,950.00 10/2014
Troy A. Ellis 50 Executive Vice President, Supply Chain Services 06/2015
Stanley J. Gage 49 Executive Vice President, Team USA 08/2014
Scott R. Hinshaw 53 Executive Vice President, Franchise Operations and Development $806,981.00 01/2008
Lynn M. Liddle 59 Executive Vice President, Communications, Investor Relations and Legislative Affairs 11/2002
Kenneth B. Rollin 49 Executive Vice President, General Counsel 01/2008
James G. Stansik 60 Executive Vice President, Franchise Relations 01/2008
J. Kevin Vasconi 55 Executive Vice President and Chief Information Officer 03/2012
Russell J. Weiner 47 President, Domino’s USA $1,302,950.00 09/2008
Judith L. Werthauser 50 Executive Vice President, PeopleFirst 01/2016
C. Andrew Ballard 43 Director 07/2015
Andrew B. Balson 49 Director 03/2009
Diana F. Cantor 58 Director 10/2005
Richard L. Federico 61 Director 02/2011
James A. Goldman 57 Director 03/2010
Vernon “Bud” O. Hamilton 73 Director 05/2005
Gregory A. Trojan 56 Director 03/2010
12 | P a g e
Appendix 2: Shares Outstanding Ownership
Ownership by shares outstanding held (top 15): Bloomberg
Ownership by country: Bloomberg
Board of Directors Bloomberg
13 | P a g e
Appendix 3: 2016 Macro Outlook
In 2015, global economic activity remained weak, as the U.S. economy increased GDP at a muted 2.4% while global
economies only grew at 3.1%. In the beginning of 2016, many countries were affected by the uncertainty affecting
China’s poor financial services and housing economy. However, according to the IMF, global growth is forecasted
to increase after 2017 and beyond. The macro environment has been impacted by much uncertainty from both
domestic and global factors, which predictably leads to an uncertain outlook.
Fluctuating Energy and Commodity Prices
Commodity prices declined sharply in the second half of 2015. Strong production of output from the members of
OPEC, Russia, and the United States have lowered the price of oil to under $30 per barrel in the last 3 months, and
the price is currently around $40. Energy spending by households that make less than $50,000 was 21% of earnings
in a study by Bank of America/Merrill Lynch in 2012. Households making more than $50,000 spent around 9% of
their earnings. Consumers making a lower income have a higher marginal propensity to consume and are more
likely to spend this extra income as oil prices remain low.
Strong Dollar and Interest Rates
Foreign currency conversion continues to be a major problem for domestic companies with international exposure.
Economies in Asia and Europe are looking to expand monetary policy to stimulate demand, driving a higher
variance between the U.S. dollar and other currencies. Both the Central Bank of Japan and the European Central
Bank implemented negative interest rates. This provides more uncertainty over the next year, as Goldman Sachs
continues its bullish-dollar stance. Domestically, the Federal Reserve System raised the interest rate by 0.25% at the
end of 2015, and had predicted four equal increases over the course of 2016. However, due to the economic
uncertainty in the global environment, the Fed agreed to hold off on increasing the interest rate in the foreseeable
future.
14 | P a g e
Appendix 4: Income StatementIncomeStatement
(Inthousands,exceptpershareamounts)FY06AFY07AFY08AFY09AFY10AFY11AFY12AFY13AFY14AFY15AFY16EFY17EFY18EFY19EFY20E
Revenues:
DomesticCompany-OwnedStores:$393,406$394,585$357,703$335,779$345,636$336,349$323,652$337,414$348,497$396,916402,537$418,709$432,564$450,029$455,357$
DomesticFranchise:157,741158,050153,858157,780173,345187,007195,000212,369230,192272,808292,223313,637335,976358,168379,971
DomesticSupplyChain:762,782783,330771,106763,733875,517927,904942,2191,009,851-------
InternationalFranchise--------152,621163,643192,006221,810257,176298,389349,428
International:123,390126,905142,447146,765176,396200,933217,568242,589-------
SupplyChain:--------1,262,5231,383,1611,532,1681,706,4801,897,4052,101,8922,307,728
TotalRevenue:1,437,3191,462,8701,425,1141,404,0571,570,8941,652,1931,678,4391,802,2231,993,8332,216,5282,418,9342,660,6362,923,1223,208,4773,492,484
CostofSales:
DomesticCompany-OwnedStores:312,130317,730298,857274,474278,297267,066247,391256,596267,385299,294307,173322,445327,059340,714347,480
DomesticSupplyChain:681,700710,894699,669680,427778,510831,665843,329899,860-------
International:58,95855,39263,32762,18075,49882,94686,38196,793-------
SupplyChain:--------1,131,6821,234,1031,365,5771,519,2301,686,3591,874,4072,055,657
TotalCostofSales:1,052,7881,084,0161,061,8531,017,0811,132,3051,181,6771,177,1011,253,2491,399,0671,533,3971,672,7501,841,6752,013,4182,215,1212,403,137
GeneralandAdministrative:170,334184,944168,231197,467210,887211,371219,007235,163249,405277,692300,657331,933368,637404,494440,965
TotalOperatingExpenses:1,223,1221,268,9601,230,0841,214,5481,343,1921,393,0481,396,1081,488,4121,648,4721,811,0891,973,4082,173,6082,382,0552,619,6152,844,102
GrossProfit:384,531378,854363,261386,976438,589470,516501,338548,974594,766683,131746,184818,961909,704993,3571,089,347
GrossMargin:36.5%34.9%34.2%38.0%38.7%39.8%42.6%43.8%42.5%44.6%44.6%44.5%45.2%44.8%45.3%
IncomeFromOperations:214,197193,910195,030189,509227,702259,145282,331313,811345,361405,439445,526487,028541,067588,863648,382
EBITMargin14.9%13.3%13.7%13.5%14.5%15.7%16.8%17.4%17.3%18.3%18.4%18.3%18.5%18.4%18.6%
OtherExpenses(Income):
InterestIncome:(1,239)(5,317)(2,746)(683)(244)(296)(304)(160)(143)(313)(432)(495)(614)(542)(423)
InterestExpense:55,011130,374114,906110,94596,81091,635101,44888,87286,88199,537117,621114,982112,886101,55786,390
Other:-13,294-(56,275)(7,809)----------
TotalOtherExpenses:53,772138,351112,16053,98788,75791,339101,14488,71286,73899,224117,188114,487112,271101,01585,967
Income(Loss)BeforeProvisionforIncomeTaxes:160,42555,55982,870135,522138,945167,806181,187225,099258,623306,215328,338372,541428,795487,848562,415
EBTMargin
ProvisionforIncomeTaxes:54,19817,67728,89955,77851,02862,44568,79582,11496,036113,426121,621137,994158,831180,705208,326
NetIncome(Loss)forthePeriod:106,22737,88253,97179,74487,917105,361112,392142,985162,587192,789206,717234,547269,964307,143354,089
EffectiveTaxRate:33.8%31.8%34.9%41.2%36.7%37.2%38.0%36.5%37.1%37.0%37.0%37.0%37.0%37.0%37.0%
BasicEarnings/(Loss)PerShare(EPS):$1.68$0.61$0.93$1.39$1.50$1.79$1.99$2.58$2.963.58$3.874.425.125.866.81
DilutedEarnings/(Loss)PerShare(EPS):$1.65$0.59$0.93$1.38$1.45$1.711.91$$2.48$2.863.47$3.754.284.965.686.59
WeightedBasicSharesOutstanding:63,139,07362,176,56857,755,51957,409,44858,467,76958,918,03856,419,64555,345,55454,918,47153,828,60953,467,91153,107,21252,746,51452,385,81652,025,117
WeightedDilutedSharesOutstanding:64,541,07963,785,12458,339,53557,827,69760,815,89861,653,51958,997,47657,720,99856,931,22655,532,95555,172,25754,811,55854,450,86054,090,16253,729,463
CashDividendsPerShare:$0.48$-$-$-$-$-$3.00$0.80$1.001.24$1.52$1.52$1.52$1.52$1.52$
HistoricalProjected
15 | P a g e
Appendix 5: Balance Sheet
BalanceSheet
(Inthousands,exceptpershareamounts)FY06AFY07AFY08AFY09AFY10AFY11AFY12AFY13AFY14AFY15AFY16EFY17EFY18EFY19EFY20E
ASSETS:
CurrentAssets:
CashandCashEquivalents:$38,222$11,344$45,372$42,392$47,945$50,292$54,813$14,383$30,855$133,449$199,575$276,995$357,989$150,000$165,000
RestrictedCash-80,95178,87191,14185,53092,61260,015125,453120,954180,940130,000130,000150,000150,000165,000
AccountsReceivable,NetofReserves:65,69768,44669,39076,27380,41087,20094,103105,779118,395131,582132,544145,788164,175180,202200,937
Inventories22,80324,93124,34225,89026,99830,70231,06130,32137,94436,86140,06844,11448,22853,05957,563
NotesReceivable,NetofReserves9944406301,0791,5099451,8581,823-------
PrepaidExpensesandOther:13,83511,0986,2366,1559,76012,23211,21018,37632,56920,64623,68126,08329,77634,05536,973
AdvertisingFundAssets,Restricted:18,88020,68320,37725,11636,13436,28137,91744,69572,05599,15999,15999,15999,15999,15999,159
DeferredIncomeTaxes:5,8748,9899,03310,62216,75216,57915,29010,7109,857-10,37110,37110,37110,37110,371
AssetHeld-For-Sale:--------5,732------
TotalCurrentAssets:166,305226,882254,251278,668305,038326,843306,267351,540428,361602,637635,398732,511859,697676,846735,003
Property,Plant,andEquipment:
LandandBuildings:21,83121,89922,06321,82523,21123,71424,46023,42325,85929,064
LeaseholdandOtherImprovements:83,50386,90983,36283,19083,45179,51880,27990,50899,804111,071
Equipment:162,142176,667167,470170,202175,125171,726168,452174,667178,378186,405
ConstructioninProgress:2,1322,3611,8814,4994,0286,0529,9678,9006,1799,633
TotalGrossProperty,PlantandEquipment:269,608287,836274,776279,716285,815281,010283,158297,498310,220336,173
AccumulatedDepreciationandAmortization:(152,464)(164,946)(166,346)(176,940)(188,431)(188,610)(191,713)(199,914)(196,174)(204,283)
NetProperty,PlantandEquipment:117,144122,890108,430102,77697,38492,40091,44597,584114,046131,890160,302191,552228,809269,703317,709
OtherAssets:
InvestmentsinMarketableSecurities,Restricted:1,3401,9241,2581,4061,1931,5382,0973,2694,5866,0546,0546,0546,0546,0546,054
NotesReceivables,LessCurrentPortion,NetofReserves:5767401,7421,9362,6685,0703,028894-------
DeferredFinancingCosts,NetofAccumulatedAmorization:8,77033,13924,45717,26612,27416,05134,78728,693-------
Goodwill:21,31920,77217,67517,60617,35616,64916,59816,59816,29716,09716,09716,09716,09716,09716,097
CapitalizedSoftware,NetofAccumulatedAmortization:16,14210,1303,6723,2337,7888,17611,38714,46420,56228,50528,50528,50528,50528,50528,505
OtherAssets,netofAccumulatedAmortization:8,62510,8779,2609,0248,4908,9588,6359,04610,0068,7979,1729,1729,1729,1729,172
DeferredIncomeTaxes:39,98245,81043,04921,8468,6464,8583,9533,1672,4755,8654,0644,0644,0644,0644,064
TotalOtherAssets:96,754123,392101,11372,31758,41561,30080,48576,13153,92665,31863,89163,89163,89163,89163,891
TotalAssets:380,203473,164463,794453,761460,837480,543478,197525,255596,333799,845859,591987,9541,152,3981,010,4401,116,604
LIABILITIESANDSTOCKHOLDER'SDEFICIT
CurrentLiabilities:
AccountsPayable:55,03660,41156,90664,12056,60269,71477,41483,40886,552106,92797,023106,821116,783128,482139,387
AccruedCompensation:21,69313,33010,38317,16827,41821,69121,84323,65323,61832,99929,87732,90836,06339,66043,059
AccruedInterest:19,49918,70017,83417,50016,02815,77515,03514,37514,00820,45924,35526,82629,39832,33035,100
AccruedIncomeTaxes:7861,5831,167183-----------
InsuranceReserves:8,9799,13410,05612,03213,76713,02312,96413,29714,46517,59714,46514,46514,46514,46514,465
DividendsPayable:------1,50211,84914,351557557557557557557
LegalReserves:----6,64810,0695,0254,959-------
AdvertisingFundLiabilities:18,88020,68320,37725,11636,13436,28137,91744,69572,05599,15999,15999,15999,15999,15999,159
OtherAccruedLiabilities:28,85136,35532,49132,93428,69429,71833,449.0034,23139,99438,95247,58552,41357,43963,16768,580
TotalCurrentLiabilities:153,724160,196149,214169,053185,291196,271205,149230,467265,043316,650313,021333,148353,864377,820400,307
Long-TermLiabilities:
Revolver:----------12,00025,79739,66753,79967,813
Long-TermDebt:741,5971,720,0831,704,7841,572,8331,452,1561,451,2731,560,7921,536,4431,501,1642,240,7932,180,9932,141,5932,102,1931,715,7121,531,991
InsuranceReserves:22,05420,45920,36915,12717,43821,33424,19525,52826,95123,31426,95126,95126,95126,95126,951
DeferredIncomeTaxes:--14,05017,742-5,0217,0017,8275,588-5,7235,7235,7235,7235,723
OtherAccruedLiabilities:27,72122,565--16,60316,38316,58315,19217,05219,33915,14415,14415,14415,14415,144
TotalLong-TermLiabilities:791,3721,763,1071,739,2031,605,7021,486,1971,494,0111,608,5711,584,9901,550,7552,283,4462,240,8112,215,2072,189,6781,817,3281,647,622
TotalLiabilities:945,0961,923,3031,888,4171,774,7551,671,4881,690,2821,813,7201,815,4571,815,7982,600,0962,553,8312,548,3552,543,5422,195,1482,047,929
Stockholders'Deficit:
CommonStock&APIC:134,5615972,42325,07346,1335772,2271,22730,1177,44021,64835,85650,06364,27178,479
PreferredStock:---------------
RetainedDeficit:(701,520)(1,444,938)(1,421,705)(1,341,961)(1,254,044)(1,207,915)(1,335,364)(1,289,445)(1,246,921)(1,804,143)(1,712,340)(1,592,708)(1,437,659)(1,245,431)(1,006,257)
AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveLoss:2,066(5,798)(5,341)(4,106)(2,740)(2,401)(2,386)(1,984)(2,661)(3,548)(3,548)(3,548)(3,548)(3,548)(3,548)
TotalStockholders'Deficit:(564,893)(1,450,139)(1,424,623)(1,320,994)(1,210,651)(1,209,739)(1,335,523)(1,290,202)(1,219,465)(1,800,251)(1,694,241)(1,560,401)(1,391,144)(1,184,708)(931,326)
TotalLiabilitiesandStockholders'Deficit:380,203473,164463,794453,761460,837480,543478,197525,255596,333799,845859,591987,9541,152,3981,010,4401,116,604
HistoricalProjected
16 | P a g e
Appendix 6: Statement of Cash FlowsCashFlowStatement
(Inthousands,exceptpershareamounts)FY06AFY07AFY08AFY09AFY10AFY11AFY12AFY13AFY14AFY15AFY16EFY17EFY18EFY19EFY20E
CashFlowsFromOperatingActivities:
NetIncome:$106,227$37,882$53,971$79,744$87,917$105,361$112,392$142,985$162,587$192,789$206,717$234,547$269,964$307,143$354,089
AdjustmentstoReconcileNetIncometoNetCashProvidedbyOperating
Activities:
DepreciationandAmortization:32,26631,17628,37724,06424,05224,04223,17125,78335,78832,43429,02731,92832,15435,29334,925
GainsonDebtExtinguishment:---(56,275)(7,809)----------
(Gains)LossesonSale/DisposalofAssets:(2,678)(766)(13,752)1,843403(2,436)540367(1,107)316-----
Provision(Benefit)forLossesonAccountsandNotesReceivable:(728)2,3587,7141,542641,428462(1,257)(570)(1,084)-----
Provision(Benefit)fordeferredIncomeTaxes:(615)(5,564)2,04619,4766,0278,1694,1936,055(132)1,713(2,846)----
AmortizationofDeferredFinancingCosts,DebtDiscountandOther:3,38038,61211,1039,6217,8376,19014,5966,0945,74612,393-----
Non-CashCompensationExpense:5,2188,4059,05917,25413,37013,95417,62121,98717,58717,62314,20814,20814,20814,20814,208
TaxImpactFromEquity-BasedCompensation:---(383)(2,100)(15,589)(16,220)(19,498)(27,583)(17,775)(9,915)(9,915)(9,915)(9,915)(9,915)
Other:------(531)--------
ChangesinOperatingAssetsandLiabilities:
Decrease(Increase)inAccountsReceivable:687(4,337)(10,304)(7,235)(3,395)(7,713)(6,917)(11,001)(12,710)(13,678)(962)(13,244)(18,387)(16,027)(20,735)
Decrease(Increase)inInventories,PrepaidExpensesandOther:1,039(1,503)1,245(1,050)(2,357)(4,904)(703)(242)(11,827)(2,262)(6,242)(6,449)(7,806)(9,111)(7,422)
Increase(Decrease)inAccountsPayableandAccruedLiabilities:(10,512)(20,983)(15,293)16,66651821,41924,91421,86722,77669,032(4,693)17,09617,56020,35919,089
Increase(Decrease)inInsuranceReserves:(1,281)(1,092)1,091(3,996)3,7983,1522,8028491,784285505----
NetCashProvidedbyOperatingActivities:133,00384,18875,257101,271128,325153,073176,320193,989192,339291,786225,800268,171297,778341,951384,239
CashFlowsFromInvestingActivities:
CapitalExpenditures:(20,204)(42,415)(19,411)(22,870)(25,421)(24,349)(29,267)(40,387)(70,093)(63,282)(57,439)(63,178)(69,411)(76,187)(82,931)
ProceedsfromSaleofAssets:14,36913,35428,8743,7302,7376,0312,9884,5189,16012,724-----
ProceedsfromSaleofEquityInvestment:---------------
ChangeinRestrictedCash:-(80,951)2,080(12,270)5,611(7,082)32,597(65,438)4,499(59,986)50,940-(20,000)-(15,000)
NetRepaymentsofNotesReceivable:868285-------------
Other:(965)258549(1,481)(1,307)(1,541)1,0301,574(1,009)1,252(375)4,8275,0265,7285,413
NetCashProvidedby(usedin)InvestingActivities:(5,932)(109,469)12,092(32,891)(18,380)(26,941)7,348(99,733)(57,443)(109,292)(6,874)(58,351)(84,385)(70,459)(92,518)
CashFlowsfromFinancingActivities:
ProceedsfromIssuanceofLong-TermDebt:100,0002,524,9383,00060,9952,861-1,575,000--1,305,000---492,819305,079
RepaymentsofLong-TermDebtandCapitalLeaseObligation:(95,284)(1,547,201)(18,312)(136,679)(116,760)(890)(1,465,509)(24,349)(12,332)(564,403)(59,800)(39,400)(39,400)(879,300)(488,800)
CashPaidforFinancingCosts:(250)(60,337)(278)(552)4,548563--9,0284,814-----
ProceedsfromIssuanceofCommonStock:4,6415,7244,4524,3769,45033,5248,9459,45127,58317,77512,00012,00012,00012,00012,000
ProceedsfromExerciseofStockOptions:4,9024,6691,0377582,10015,58916,22019,498(82,407)(738,557)-----
TaxBenefitfromStockOptions:5,07522,113272383(5,384)(165,007)(88,238)(97,132)(7,927)(7,431)-----
PurchaseofCommonStock:(145,000)(54,548)(42,976)-(1,082)(3,504)(5,845)(8,031)(52,843)(80,329)(85,000)(85,000)(85,000)(85,000)(85,000)
CommonStockDividendsandEquivalents:(29,841)(896,972)---(3,760)(185,484)(34,241)-(17,367)(20,000)(20,000)(20,000)(20,000)(20,000)
DividendPayable---------------
CapitalContributionandOther:--(726)(77)--(32,538)--(438)-----
NetCashusedinFinancingActivities:(155,757)(1,614)(53,531)(70,796)(104,267)(123,485)(177,449)(134,804)(118,898)(80,936)(152,800)(132,400)(132,400)(479,481)(276,721)
EffectofExchangeRateChangesonCashandCashEquivalents:(11)17210(567)(125)(300)(1,698)1184741,036-----
Increase(Decrease)InCashandCashEquivalents:(28,697)(26,878)34,028(2,980)5,5532,3474,521(40,430)16,472102,59466,12677,42080,994(207,989)15,000
CashandCashEquivalents,AtBeginningofPeriod:66,91938,22211,34445,37242,39247,94550,29254,81314,38330,855133,449199,575276,995357,989150,000
CashandCashEquivalents,AtEndofPeriod:$38,222$11,344$45,372$42,392$47,945$50,292$54,813$14,383$30,855$133,449$199,575$276,995$357,989$150,000$165,000
HistoricalProjected
17 | P a g e
Appendix 7: Debt ScheduleDebtSchedule
(Inthousands,exceptpershareamounts)FY06AFY07AFY08AFY09AFY10AFY11AFY12AFY13AFY14AFY15AFY16EFY17EFY18EFY19EFY20E
MinimumCashBalance130,000130,000150,000150,000165,000
NetchangeinCash,BeforeAdditionalBorrowing66,12677,42080,994(700,808)(290,079)
EndingCashBalance,BeforeAdditionalBorrowing199,575276,995357,989(342,819)(140,079)
AdditionalBorrowingRequired---492,819305,079
TotalBankLoans+FinanceLeases741,5971,720,0831,704,7841,572,8331,452,1561,451,2731,560,7921,536,4431,501,1642,240,7932,180,9932,141,5932,102,1931,715,7121,531,991
AverageBalanceNA1,230,8401,712,4341,638,8091,512,4951,451,7151,506,0331,548,6181,518,8041,870,9792,210,8932,161,2932,121,8931,908,9521,623,851
InterestExpenseNA130,374114,906110,94596,81091,635101,44888,87286,88199,537117,621114,982112,886101,55786,390
EffectiveInterestRateNA10.6%6.7%6.8%6.4%6.3%6.7%5.7%5.7%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%
TotalCash+Short-termInvestments38,22292,295124,243133,533133,475142,904114,828139,836151,809314,389329,575406,995507,989300,000330,000
AverageBalanceNA65,259108,269128,888133,504138,190128,866127,332145,823233,099321,982368,285457,492403,994315,000
InterestIncomeNA5,3172,746683244296304160143313432495614542423
EffectiveInterestRateNA8.1%2.5%0.5%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%
HistoricalProjected
18 | P a g e
Appendix 8: Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement Drivers
BalanceSheetandCashFlowStatementDrivers
FY06AFY07AFY08AFY09AFY10AFY11AFY12AFY13AFY14AFY15AFY16EFY17EFY18EFY19EFY20E
AccountsReceivable,NetofReserves%LTMRevenue:4.9%4.6%4.8%5.2%5.0%5.1%5.4%5.5%5.6%5.6%5.5%5.5%5.6%5.6%5.8%
DaysSalesOutstanding(DSO):17.816.717.718.918.218.519.720.220.520.620.020.020.520.521.0
ReceivablesTurnover:20.5x21.8x20.7x19.3x20.1x19.7x18.5x18.0x17.8x17.7x18.3x19.1x18.9x18.6x18.3x
CostofSales:1,052,7881,084,0161,061,8531,017,0811,132,3051,181,6771,177,1011,253,2491,399,0671,533,3971,672,7501,841,6752,013,4182,215,1212,403,137
Inventories:
Inventory%LTMCOGS:2.2%2.2%2.3%2.5%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%
DaysofInventoryonHand:8.28.08.59.08.58.99.68.98.98.98.78.78.78.78.7
InventoryTurnover:44.8x45.4x43.1x40.5x42.8x41.0x38.1x40.8x41.0x41.0x41.7x41.7x41.7x41.7x41.7x
PrepaidExpensesandOther%ofLTMOpEx:1.1%0.9%0.5%0.5%0.7%0.9%0.8%1.2%2.0%1.1%1.2%1.2%1.3%1.3%1.3%
DeferredIncomeTaxesAssetsOther:39,98245,81043,04921,8468,6464,8583,9533,1672,4755,8654,0644,0644,0644,0644,064
DeferredIncomeTaxesAssetsCurrent:5,8748,9899,03310,62216,75216,57915,29010,710-9,85710,37110,37110,37110,37110,371
AccountsPayable%LTMCOGS:5.5%5.3%5.5%5.9%5.3%5.3%6.2%6.4%6.1%6.3%5.8%5.8%5.8%5.8%5.8%
DaysPayableOutstanding(DPO)20.019.420.221.719.519.522.823.422.223.021.221.221.221.221.2
PayablesTurnover:18.3x18.8x18.1x16.8x18.8x18.7x16.0x15.6x16.5x15.9x17.2x17.2x17.2x17.2x17.2x
AccruedCompensation:21,69313,33010,38317,16827,41821,69121,84323,65332,99923,61829,87732,90836,06339,66043,059
%ofLTMOpEx1.8%1.1%0.8%1.4%2.0%1.6%1.6%1.6%2.0%1.3%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%
AccruedInterest:19,49918,70017,83417,50016,02815,77515,03514,37520,45914,00824,35526,82629,39832,33035,100
%ofLTMOpEx1.6%1.5%1.4%1.4%1.2%1.1%1.1%1.0%1.2%0.8%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%
AccruedIncomeTaxes:7861,5831,167183-----------
%ofLTMOpEx0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
OtherAccruedLiabilities:28,85136,35532,49132,93428,69429,71833,44934,23138,95239,99447,58552,41357,43963,16768,580
%ofLTMOpEx2.4%2.9%2.6%2.7%2.1%2.1%2.4%2.3%2.4%2.2%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%
TotalAccruedLiabilities:70,82969,96861,87567,78572,14067,18470,32772,25992,41077,620101,817112,146122,900135,157146,739
5.8%5.5%5.0%5.6%5.4%4.8%5.0%4.9%5.6%4.3%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.2%
DeferredIncomeTaxesLiabilities:--14,05017,742-5,0217,0017,827-5,5885,7235,7235,7235,7235,723
InsuranceReservesCurrent:8,9799,13410,05612,03213,76713,02312,96413,29717,59714,46514,46514,46514,46514,46514,465
InsuranceReservesLong-Term:22,05420,45920,36915,12717,43821,33424,19525,52823,31426,95126,95126,95126,95126,95126,951
HistoricalProjected
19 | P a g e
Appendix 9: Expense Assumptions
ExpenseAssumptions
FY06AFY07AFY08AFY09AFY10AFY11AFY12AFY13AFY14AFY15AFY16EFY17EFY18EFY19EFY20E
CostofSales:
DomesticCompany-OwnedStore:312318299275278267247257267299307322327341347
TotalDCOMargin79.3%80.5%83.6%81.7%80.5%79.4%76.4%76.1%76.7%75.4%76.3%77.0%75.6%75.7%76.3%
TotalDCOMarginImprovement(1.2%)(3.0%)1.8%1.2%1.1%3.0%0.4%(0.7%)1.3%(0.9%)(0.7%)1.4%(0.1%)(0.6%)
Food:10310399879595889399104109117115122128
MarginStoreRevenues26.2%26.1%27.6%25.8%27.4%28.3%27.1%27.6%28.3%26.1%27.1%27.9%26.7%27.2%28.1%
MarginImprovement1.8%0.1%(1.5%)1.8%(1.6%)(0.9%)1.2%(0.5%)(0.7%)2.2%(1.0%)(0.8%)1.2%(0.5%)(0.9%)
LaborandOtherRelated:11812211410810698929498115116.74121.01124.15127.81127.96
MarginStoreRevenues30.1%30.8%32.0%32.3%30.6%29.0%28.4%28.0%28.0%29.1%29.0%28.9%28.7%28.4%28.1%
MarginImprovement(0.5%)(0.7%)(1.2%)(0.3%)1.7%1.6%0.6%0.4%0.0%(1.1%)0.1%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.3%
OccupancyandOtherRelated:504743413835313132323233333434
MarginStoreRevenues12.6%11.9%12.1%12.2%10.9%10.3%9.5%9.3%9.2%8.1%7.9%7.8%7.7%7.5%7.4%
MarginImprovement(0.9%)0.7%(0.2%)(0.1%)1.3%0.6%0.8%0.2%0.1%1.1%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.1%
Insurance:1212121212121099161718192020
MarginStoreRevenues3.1%3.1%3.3%3.5%3.6%3.7%3.1%2.8%2.7%4.0%4.1%4.2%4.3%4.4%4.5%
MarginImprovement0.3%0.0%(0.2%)(0.2%)(0.1%)(0.1%)0.6%0.3%0.1%(1.3%)(0.1%)(0.1%)(0.1%)(0.1%)(0.1%)
Other:293431272827272830323334363737
MarginStoreRevenues7.3%8.6%8.6%7.9%8.0%8.1%8.3%8.4%8.5%8.1%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%
MarginImprovement(1.3%)0.1%0.6%(0.1%)(0.1%)(0.2%)(0.0%)(0.2%)0.4%(0.1%)0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
DomesticSupplyChain:682711700680779832843900-------
Margin89.4%90.8%90.7%89.1%88.9%89.6%89.5%89.1%-------
MarginImprovement(1.4%)0.0%1.6%0.2%(0.7%)0.1%0.4%-------
InternationalStores:5955636276838697-------
Margin47.8%43.7%44.5%42.4%42.8%41.3%39.7%39.9%-------
MarginImprovement4.2%(0.8%)2.1%(0.4%)1.5%1.6%(0.2%)-------
SupplyChain:7417667637438549159309971,1321,2341,3661,5191,6861,8742,056
Margin89.7%90.8%90.8%89.1%88.9%89.6%89.4%89.1%89.6%89.2%89.1%89.0%88.9%89.2%89.1%
MarginImprovement(1.1%)0.0%1.7%0.2%(0.7%)0.2%0.3%(0.6%)0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%(0.3%)0.1%
Total:1,0531,0841,0621,0171,1321,1821,1771,2531,3991,5331,6731,8422,0132,2152,403
Margin(TotalRevenue)73.2%74.1%74.5%72.4%72.1%71.5%70.1%69.5%70.2%69.2%69.2%69.2%68.9%69.0%68.8%
MarginImprovement(0.9%)(0.4%)2.1%0.4%0.6%1.4%0.6%(0.6%)1.0%0.0%(0.1%)0.3%(0.2%)0.2%
YoYGrowth:3.0%(2.0%)(4.2%)11.3%4.4%(0.4%)6.5%11.6%9.6%9.1%10.1%9.3%10.0%8.5%
General&Administrative:
Advertising:383935333029283029323333333740
Margin2.7%2.7%2.5%2.4%1.9%1.7%1.6%1.6%1.5%1.4%1.3%1.2%1.1%1.1%1.1%
MarginImprovement0.0%0.2%0.1%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%
YoYGrowth:1.3%(9.3%)(6.5%)(8.5%)(5.6%)(3.2%)7.2%(2.0%)10.3%1.6%1.8%1.0%9.8%8.9%
Other:132146133165181183191206220246268299335368401
Margin9.2%10.0%9.3%11.7%11.5%11.1%11.4%11.4%11.1%11.1%11.1%11.2%11.5%11.5%11.5%
MarginImprovement(0.8%)0.7%(2.4%)0.2%0.4%(0.3%)(0.0%)0.4%(0.0%)(0.2%)(0.1%)(0.2%)0.0%(0.0%)
YoYGrowth:10.7%(9.0%)23.8%9.8%1.2%4.6%7.4%7.2%11.5%9.1%11.4%12.2%9.7%9.0%
Total:170185168198211211219235249278301332369404441
Margin(TotalRevenue)11.8%12.6%11.8%14.1%13.4%12.8%13.0%13.0%12.5%12.5%12.4%12.5%12.6%12.6%12.6%
MarginImprovement(0.8%)0.8%(2.3%)0.6%0.6%(0.3%)(0.0%)0.5%(0.0%)0.1%(0.0%)(0.1%)0.0%(0.0%)
YoYGrowth:8.6%(9.0%)17.4%6.8%0.2%3.6%7.4%6.0%11.3%8.3%10.4%11.1%9.7%9.0%
TotalOperatingExpenses:1,2231,2691,2301,2151,3431,3931,3961,4891,6491,8111,9732,1742,3822,6202,844
Margin(TotalRevenue)85.1%86.7%86.3%86.5%85.5%84.3%83.2%82.6%82.7%81.7%81.6%81.7%81.5%81.6%81.4%
MarginImprovement(1.6%)0.4%(0.2%)1.0%1.2%1.1%0.6%(0.1%)1.0%0.1%(0.1%)0.2%(0.2%)0.2%
YoYGrowth:3.7%(3.1%)(1.3%)10.6%3.7%0.2%6.6%10.7%9.9%9.0%10.1%9.6%10.0%8.6%
HistoricalProjected
20 | P a g e
Appendix 10: Revenue AssumptionsRevenueAssumptions
FY06AFY07AFY08AFY09AFY10AFY11AFY12AFY13AFY14AFY15AFY16EFY17EFY18EFY19EFY20E
SameStoreSalesGrowth:
DomesticCompany-OwnedStores:
YoYGrowthRate(2.2%)1.0%(2.2%)0.9%9.7%4.1%1.3%3.9%6.2%12.2%3.5%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%
DomesticFranchiseStores:
YoYGrowthRate(4.4%)(2.1%)(5.2%)0.6%10.0%3.4%3.2%5.5%7.7%11.9%4.0%4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%
DomesticStores:
YoYGrowthRate(4.1%)(1.7%)(4.9%)0.5%9.9%3.5%3.1%5.4%7.5%12.0%3.5%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%
InternationalStores:
YoYGrowthRate4.0%6.7%6.2%4.3%6.9%6.8%5.2%6.2%6.9%7.8%6.5%5.5%5.5%5.0%5.5%
StoreCounts:
DomesticCompany-OwnedStore:571571489466454394388390377384376378379385382
YoYGrowthRate0.0%(14.4%)(4.7%)(2.6%)(13.2%)(1.5%)0.5%(3.3%)1.9%(2.0%)0.5%0.3%1.5%(0.8%)
DomesticFranchiseStores:4,5724,5844,5584,4614,4754,5134,5404,5964,6904,8164,9605,1195,2985,4845,676
YoYGrowthRate0.3%(0.6%)(2.1%)0.3%0.8%0.6%1.2%2.0%2.7%3.0%3.2%3.5%3.5%3.5%
DoemsticStores:5,1435,1555,0474,9274,9294,9074,9284,9865,0675,2005,3375,4975,6785,8696,058
YoYGrowthRate0.2%(2.1%)(2.4%)0.0%(0.4%)0.4%1.2%1.6%2.6%2.6%3.0%3.3%3.4%3.2%
InternationalStores:3,2233,4693,7264,0724,4224,8355,2375,9006,5627,3308,0788,8459,72110,74111,923
YoYGrowthRate7.6%7.4%9.3%8.6%9.3%8.3%12.7%11.2%11.7%10.2%9.5%9.9%10.5%11.0%
TotalStores:8,3668,6248,7738,9999,3519,74210,16510,88611,62912,53013,41414,34215,39816,61017,981
YoYGrowthRate3.1%1.7%2.6%3.9%4.2%4.3%7.1%6.8%7.7%7.1%6.9%7.4%7.9%8.3%
AverageSalesPerStore:
DomesticCompany-OwnedStore:688,967691,068731,493720,601761,233853,553834,278865,128924,4031,033,5941,069,6661,107,1041,140,3181,168,8261,192,202
YoYGrowthRate0.3%5.8%(1.5%)5.6%12.1%(2.3%)3.7%6.9%11.8%3.5%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%
DomesticFranchiseStores:34,49334,49033,76535,37338,72641,43642,95246,21449,08356,64558,91061,26763,41165,31366,946
YoYGrowthRate(0.0%)(2.1%)4.8%9.5%7.0%3.7%7.6%6.2%15.4%4.0%4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%
DoemsticStores:107,155107,216101,367100,183105,275106,644105,256110,269114,210128,788133,332138,048142,240145,849148,820
YoYGrowthRate0.1%(5.5%)(1.2%)5.1%1.3%(1.3%)4.8%3.6%12.8%3.5%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%
DomesticSupplyChain:166,842170,877169,175171,195195,642205,606207,533219,735243,305260,901280,469302,906325,624348,418371,065
YoYGrowthRate2.4%(1.0%)1.2%14.3%5.1%0.9%5.9%10.7%7.2%7.5%8.0%7.5%7.0%6.5%
InternationalFranchiseStores:18,77119,11219,61919,00820,64722,31622,93322,661.0223,25522,31923,77025,07726,45727,77929,307
YoYGrowthRate1.8%2.7%(3.1%)8.6%8.1%2.8%(1.2%)2.6%(4.0%)6.5%5.5%5.5%5.0%5.5%
InternationalSupplyChain:19,51617,46918,59917,04319,24519,23518,61818,45818,50017,27117,44417,61917,70717,80316,913
YoYGrowthRate(10.5%)6.5%(8.4%)12.9%(0.1%)(3.2%)(0.9%)0.2%(6.6%)1.0%1.0%0.5%0.5%(5.0%)
InternationalStores:38,28736,58138,21836,05139,89141,55141,55141,11941,75639,59142,16444,48346,93049,27651,986
YoYGrowthRate(4.5%)4.5%(5.7%)10.7%4.2%(0.0%)(1.0%)1.5%(5.2%)6.5%5.5%5.5%5.0%5.5%
Total:171,803169,631162,442156,028167,982169,585165,125165,561171,451176,887180,323185,508189,833193,163194,236
YoYGrowthRate(1.3%)(4.2%)(3.9%)7.7%1.0%(2.6%)0.3%3.6%3.2%1.9%2.9%2.3%1.8%0.6%
TotalOperatingRevenue:
DomesticCompany-OwnedStore:393395358336346336324337349397403419433450455
YoYGrowthRate0.3%(9.4%)(6.1%)2.9%(2.7%)(3.7%)4.2%3.3%13.9%1.4%4.0%3.3%4.0%1.2%
DomesticFranchise:158158154158173187195212230273292314336358380
YoYGrowthRate0.3%(2.7%)2.5%9.8%7.9%4.3%8.9%8.4%18.5%7.1%7.3%7.1%6.6%6.1%
DoemsticStores:551553512494519523519550579670695732769808835
YoYGrowthRate0.3%(7.4%)(3.5%)5.1%0.8%(0.9%)6.0%5.3%15.7%3.7%5.4%4.9%5.2%3.4%
DomesticSupplyChain:7637837717648769289421,0101,1411,2571,3911,5511,7251,9112,106
YoYGrowthRate2.7%(1.6%)(1.0%)14.6%6.0%1.5%7.2%13.0%10.1%10.7%11.5%11.3%10.7%10.2%
InternationalFranchise:6166737791108120134153164192222257298349
YoYGrowthRate9.6%10.3%5.9%18.0%18.2%11.3%11.3%14.1%7.2%17.4%15.5%15.9%16.0%17.1%
InternationalSupplyChain:63616969859398109121127141156172191202
YoYGrowthRate(3.7%)14.4%0.1%22.6%9.3%4.8%11.7%11.5%4.3%11.3%10.6%10.4%11.1%5.5%
InternationalStores:123127142147176201218243274290333378429490551
YoYGrowthRate2.8%12.2%3.1%20.2%13.9%8.3%11.5%12.9%5.9%14.7%13.4%13.7%14.1%12.6%
Total:1,4371,4631,4251,4041,5711,6521,6791,8021,9942,2162,4192,6612,9233,2083,492
YoYGrowthRate1.8%(2.6%)(1.5%)11.9%5.2%1.6%7.4%10.6%11.2%9.1%10.0%9.9%9.8%8.9%
HistoricalProjected
21 | P a g e
Appendix 11: PULSE Point of Sale System
Domino’s computerized management information systems are designed to improve operating efficiencies, provide
corporate management with timely access to financial and marketing data and reduce store and corporate
administrative time and expense. Domino’s has installed Domino’s PULSE™, their proprietary point-of-sale
system, in every Company-owned store in the United States and significantly all of their domestic franchise stores.
Some enhanced features of Domino’s PULSE™ over their previous point-of-sale system include:
• Touch screen ordering, which improves accuracy and facilitates more efficient order taking;
• Delivery driver routing system, which improves delivery efficiency;
• Improved administrative and reporting capabilities, which enable store managers to better focus on store
operations and customer satisfaction; and
• Enhanced online ordering capability, including Pizza Tracker which was introduced in 2007.
30%
11%
59%
2015
43%
21%
36%
2011
22 | P a g e
Appendix 12: Domino’s and Competitors SWOT
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats Analysis
Dominos Pizza Hut Papa Johns
What are your business
advantages?
12 Ordering Platforms, 25%
marketshare for Delivery
Strong Brand name, High brand
loyalty
Strong brand reliability and loyalty
What are your core
competencies?
Fast Deliveries and Strong
marketing Strategies
Menu variety and consistent
quality
Higher quality toppings than
competitors (fresh dough, no meat
Where are you making the
most money?
Strong Global Supply Chain (64%)
fulfills 99% of Franchises orders
60% of money comes through
company sales and 40% through
Most of the revenue comes from
company-owned restaurant sales
What are you doing well?
U.S. same store sales 10.7%
International store count growth
Their emerging market sales
growth has been increasing by 4%-
Maintaining a high quality in food
provided
What areas are you
avoiding?
Avoiding limited time products,
only creating stable menu
Avoiding international expansion
in the African markets
Avoiding major international
expansion (low international store
What are you doing poorly?
Underpenetration in the Chinese
market and other developed
countries
Opened 355 stores in Chinese
market and same store sales in
China declined 5% for FY 15 and
Ineffective catering to
international markets
Where are you losing
money?
Large currency conversion
headwinds from international
Their franchises and licensing
fees revenues dropped by $4M in
Multiple historical lawsuits
(underpaying drivers, false
What needs improvement?
Further focus on markets with
strong demand
Further focus on the China
Division and other international
More rapid growth to keep up with
competitors
Any beneficial trends?
22 consecutive years of positive
same store sales internationally
Pizza searches in Google are
increasing
Population is growing more aware
of healthy/whole foods
Niches that competitors are
missing?
Growing market share by
acquiring and converting
The dessert menu is the strongest
among pizza chains, partnering
Responding well to a growing
health conscious market
New technologies?
New PULSE POS drives supply
chain effeciency
Innovating delivery technology
New eye tracking technology
creates pizza based on
subconcious desires and eye
Implementation of new payment
systems for iphone and android
that incorporates Google Wallet
New needs of customers?
Offering gluten free and thin crust
pizza for health conscious
consumer
Offering $5 flavor menu - provides
low prices on quality items
Big dinner boxes created for large
Offering "lighter choices" pizza
with less cheese, fresher
ingredients for health conscious
Aggressive competitors? QSR Market very competitive QSR Market very competitive QSR Market very competitive
Successful competitors?
Pizza hut has 14.8 % of pizza
shares
Dominos is the biggest
competator with an increasing
market share over the last 5 years
Pizza hut has 14.8 % of pizza
shares
Dominos has 13.5%
Negative economic
conditions?
High risk of commodities pricing
on cheese, which is their biggest
expense
Increasing minimum wage would
decrease profits on company
owned stores which make up a
High risk of commodities pricing
on cheese, which is their biggest
expense
Government regulation?
Government Regulation of
Labeling of food products could
increase costs
Government Regulation of
Labeling of food products could
increase costs
Government Regulation of
Labeling of food products could
increase costs
Changing business
climate?
Consumers seeking more fast-
casual/upscale dining options
Consumers seeking more fast-
casual/upscale dining options
Consumers seeking more fast-
casual/upscale dining options
Vulnerabilities?
Changing consumer preference
(healthy)
Supplier scandal over expired
meat sales lead to a decrease in
High royalty and advertising fees
could lower possibility of
StrengthsWeaknessesOpportunitiesThreats
23 | P a g e
Valuation Method Weight Price
DCF Valuation 50% 112.51$
P/E Valuation 50% 112.43$
Implied Valuation 112.47$
Perpetuity Growth Method
Terminal Value: 9,004,188
Terminal Growth Rate 2.5%
PV of Terminal Value 6,872,116
Present Value of FCFF: 1,254,319
Implied Enterprise Value 8,126,435
Less: Debt & Capital Leases (2,240,793)
Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalent 321,982
Less: Pension: -
Implied Equity Value 6,207,624
Dilued Share Outstanding 55,172
Implied Share Price 112.51$
Premium/(Discount) to Current -18.8%
Appendix 13: Cost of Capital
WACC – Domino’s Pizza Inc.
($ in Millions Except Per Share and Per Unit Data)
Appendix 14: Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Cost of Capital Weight
Risk-free rate 2.2%
Market Risk Premium 5.2%
Beta 0.80
Cost of Equity 6.3% 74.7%
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.3% 25.3%
Cost of Preferred Stock 0.0%
WACC 5.55%
Historical Projected
Cash Flow & DCF Model FY11 A FY12 A FY13 A FY14 A FY15 A FY16 E FY17 E FY18 E FY19 E FY20 E
After-tax EBIT 280,682 306,828 340,872 370,983 408,481
Depreciation 29,027 31,928 32,154 35,293 34,925
Net change in Working Capital (11,392) (2,596) (8,633) (4,778) (9,068)
Capital Expenditure (57,439) (63,178) (69,411) (76,187) (82,931)
FCFF 240,878 272,981 294,982 325,311 351,406
% Growth Rate 13.3% 8.1% 10.3% 8.0%
Present Value of FCFF 228,206 245,014 250,832 262,069 268,198
Sum of PV of FCFF 1,254,319
Terminal Value 9,004,188
Normal Discount Period 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Mid-year Convention Method 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5
24 | P a g e
OperatingStasticsCapitalizationProjectedProjectedProjected
ShareEquityEnterpriseRevenueEBITDANetIncomeRevenueEBITDANIEBITDAMarginEPS
CompanyNameTickerPriceValueValue20152016E2017E20152016E2017E20152016E2017EGrowthGrowthGrowth20152016E2017E
TheWendy'sCompanyWEN10.98$2,950$5,049$1,870$1,312$1,134$392$387$383$161$92$95$(13.5%)(1.0%)4.0%21.0%29.5%33.8%
ChipotleMexicanGrill,Inc.CMG469.0913,87213,2094,5014,3425,12389442178447617637818.0%86.2%114.5%19.9%9.7%15.3%
PaneraBreadCompanyPNRA210.115,0815,2492,6822,8093,0603944034521491571819.0%12.0%15.7%14.7%14.4%14.8%
JackintheBoxInc.JACK68.462,3743,1531,5401,6081,582288324337109123132(1.6%)4.2%7.8%18.7%20.1%21.3%
PapaJohn'sInternationalInc.PZZA57.422,1622,4181,6371,7161,8021771872027591985.0%8.1%7.8%10.8%10.9%11.2%
Yum!Brands,Inc.YUM81.8433,32336,62713,10513,47213,3172,7842,9653,1711,2931,4051,485(1.2%)7.0%5.7%21.2%22.0%23.8%
Domino'sPizzaDPZ138.62$6,911$9,018$2,217$2,419$2,661$438$475$519$193$207$235$10.0%9.3%13.5%19.8%19.6%19.5%
Maximum469.09$33,323$36,627$13,105$13,472$13,317$2,784$2,965$3,171$1,293$1,405$1,485$18.0%86.2%114.5%21.2%29.5%33.8%
75thPercentile274.8618,73519,0646,6526,6257,1721,3661,0571,38168048465511.2%30.5%40.4%21.0%23.9%26.3%
Median75.154,0165,1492,2762,2622,4313933954171551401571.9%7.6%7.8%19.3%17.3%18.3%
25thPercentile45.812,3212,9691,6131,5341,4702602903031009198(4.6%)2.9%5.2%13.7%10.6%13.9%
Minimum10.982,1622,4181,5401,3121,134177187202759195(13.5%)(1.0%)4.0%10.8%9.7%11.2%
ValuationStasticsCapitalizationEnterpriseValue/EnterpriseValue/
ShareEquityEnterpriseRevenueEBITDAP/EMultiple
CompanyNameTickerPriceValueValue20152016E2017E20152016E2017E20152016E2017E
TheWendy'sCompanyWEN10.98$2,950$5,049$2.7x3.8x4.5x12.9x13.0x13.2x22.4x31.4x27.5x
ChipotleMexicanGrill,Inc.CMG469.0913,87213,2092.9x3.0x2.6x14.8x31.4x16.8x31.1x79.6x36.4x
PaneraBreadCompanyPNRA210.115,0815,2492.0x1.9x1.7x13.3x13.0x11.6x36.3x32.4x27.4x
JackintheBoxInc.JACK68.462,3743,1532.0x2.0x2.0x11.0x9.7x9.3x24.0x19.3x16.9x
PapaJohn'sInternationalInc.PZZA57.422,1622,4181.5x1.4x1.3x13.7x13.0x12.0x30.4x24.2x21.5x
Yum!Brands,Inc.YUM81.8433,32336,6272.8x2.7x2.8x13.2x12.4x11.5x28.0x23.2x20.7x
Domino'sPizzaDPZ138.62$6,911$9,018$4.1x3.7x3.4x20.6x19.0x17.4x39.9x35.8x31.4x
Maximum469.09$33,323$36,627$2.9x3.8x4.5x14.8x31.4x16.8x36.3x79.6x36.4x
75thPercentile274.8618,73519,0642.8x3.2x3.2x14.0x17.6x14.1x32.4x44.2x29.7x
Median75.154,0165,1492.4x2.3x2.3x13.2x13.0x11.8x29.2x27.8x24.4x
25thPercentile45.812,3212,9691.8x1.8x1.6x12.4x11.7x11.0x23.6x22.2x19.7x
Minimum10.982,1622,4181.5x1.4x1.3x11.0x9.7x9.3x22.4x19.3x16.9x
Appendix 15: Comparable Companies
25 | P a g e
Appendix 16: Comprehensive Ratio Analysis
Financial Ratios FY06A FY07A FY08A FY09A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E
Profitability Ratios
Return on Assets 31.8% 29.1% 26.6% 25.8% 31.1% 34.5% 36.8% 39.1% 39.2% 36.3% 37.3% 37.3% 37.3% 37.3% 37.3%
Return on Invested Capital 66.4% 55.7% 45.3% 44.6% 57.7% 67.2% 75.6% 83.2% 83.3% 70.2% 81.2% 81.2% 81.2% 81.2% 81.2%
Efficiency Ratios
Accounts Receivable Turnover 20.5x 21.8x 20.7x 19.3x 20.1x 19.7x 18.5x 18.0x 17.8x 17.7x 18.3x 19.1x 18.9x 18.6x 18.3x
Days Sales Outstanding 17.7 16.7 17.6 19.2 18.2 18.5 19.7 20.2 20.5 20.9 20.0 20.0 20.5 20.5 21.0
Accounts Payable Turnover 18.3x 18.8x 18.1x 16.8x 18.8x 18.7x 16.0x 15.6x 16.5x 15.9x 17.2x 17.2x 17.2x 17.2x 17.2x
Days Payable Outstanding 20.0 19.4 20.0 21.7 19.5 19.5 22.8 23.4 22.2 23.0 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2
Inventory Turnover 44.8x 45.4x 43.1x 40.5x 42.8x 41.0x 38.1x 40.8x 41.0x 41.0x 41.7x 41.7x 41.7x 41.7x 41.7x
Days Inventory Outstanding 8.1 8.0 8.4 9.2 8.5 8.9 9.5 8.9 8.9 9.0 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7
Cash Conversion Cycle 5.9 5.4 5.9 6.4 7.3 8.0 6.5 5.7 7.4 6.5 7.5 7.5 8.0 8.0 8.5
Margin Analysis
Gross Margin 26.8% 25.9% 25.5% 27.6% 27.9% 28.5% 29.9% 30.5% 29.8% 30.8% 30.8% 30.8% 31.1% 31.0% 31.2%
SG&A Margin 11.9% 12.3% 11.5% 14.0% 13.4% 12.8% 13.0% 13.0% 12.2% 12.5% 12.4% 12.5% 12.6% 12.6% 12.6%
EBITDA Margin 16.7% 18.4% 16.4% 15.2% 16.1% 17.1% 18.1% 18.6% 19.1% 19.4% 19.6% 19.5% 19.5% 19.5% 19.6%
EBIT Margin 14.9% 13.6% 14.0% 13.5% 14.5% 15.7% 16.8% 17.4% 17.6% 18.3% 18.4% 18.3% 18.5% 18.4% 18.6%
Net Income Margin 7.4% 2.6% 3.8% 5.7% 5.6% 6.4% 6.7% 7.9% 8.2% 8.7% 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 7.4%
Short Term Liquidity
Current Ratio 1.1x 1.3x 1.7x 1.3x 1.6x 1.7x 1.3x 1.4x 1.6x 1.6x 1.1x 1.1x 1.1x 1.1x 1.1x
Quick Ratio 0.7x 0.5x 0.8x 0.5x 0.7x 0.7x 0.6x 0.5x 0.6x 0.7x 0.9x 0.9x 0.9x 0.9x 0.9x
Cash Ratio 0.9x 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x 0.7x 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x 0.7x 0.8x 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x
Coverage Ratios
Total Debt/EBITDA 3.1x 6.4x 7.3x 7.4x 5.8x 5.1x 5.2x 4.6x 3.9x 5.2x 3.0x 3.0x 3.0x 3.0x 3.0x
Net Debt/EBITDA 2.9x 6.4x 7.1x 7.2x 5.6x 5.0x 5.0x 4.5x 3.9x 4.9x 2.9x 2.9x 2.9x 2.9x 2.9x
EBITDA/Interest Expense 4.4x 2.1x 2.0x 1.9x 2.6x 3.1x 3.0x 3.8x 4.4x 4.3x 4.4x 4.4x 4.4x 4.4x 4.4x
EBIT/Interest Expense 3.9x 1.5x 1.7x 1.7x 2.4x 2.8x 2.8x 3.5x 4.0x 4.1x 3.9x 3.9x 3.9x 3.9x 3.9x
Leverage Ratios
Total Debt/Equity NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
Total Debt/Capital 419.7% 637.2% 608.5% 624.5% 601.3% 600.9% 692.9% 624.0% 532.9% 508.6% 419.7% 419.7% 419.7% 419.7% 419.7%
Total Liabilities/Total Assets 248.6% 406.5% 407.2% 391.1% 362.7% 351.7% 379.3% 345.6% 304.5% 325.1% 248.6% 248.6% 248.6% 248.6% 248.6%
26 | P a g e
Appendix 17: Recent Litigation
In August 2012, Ruth Christopher, 65, and her husband Devavaram Christopher, 70, were hit by a Domino's
delivery driver who had hydro-planed and crashed into their car on Major Drive. Police found that wet pavement
and a bald tire caused the delivery driver to hydroplane into traffic. Ruth later died and Devavaram is left with
permanent brain damage. Domino's was sued and was awarded 32 million dollars by a jury. This decision was
overturned by a higher court as Domino’s already paid the family 6 million dollars in a pre-trial settlement. This
along with the fact that Domino’s does not control the day to day operations of franchisees and has put in the
company handbook that drivers vehicles should be checked periodically.
27 | P a g e
Appendix 18: Sensitivity Analyses
FCF & WACC
Same Store Sales
28 | P a g e
Works Cited
Bowles, Danny. "Domino's Appoints New Head of Marketing." Domino’s Appoints New Head of Marketing.
Domino's Pizza Group Ltd, 28 Mar. 2013. Web. 17 Apr. 2016.
"Jeffrey Lawrence, Domino's Pizza Inc: Profile & Biography." Bloomberg.com. Bloomberg, n.d. Web. 17 Apr. 2016.
Lin, Kristin. "CFO Moves: Domino’s Pizza and MMA Capital Management." The CFO Report RSS. Wall Street
Journal, 16 July 2015. Web. 17 Apr. 2016.
Oches, Sam. "The Many Acts of Domino's Pizza." QSR Magazine. QSR Magazine, Aug. 2010. Web. 17 Apr. 2016.
Sullivan, Brian. "Best CEOs of 2011: Sullivan." CNBC. CNBC, 15 Dec. 2011. Web. 17 Apr. 2016.
Beer, Jeff. "How Domino's Became A Tech Company." Co.Create. N.p., 22 May 2014. Web. 17 Apr. 2016.
Pinsker, Joe. "Why Are Millennials So Obsessed With Food?" The Atlantic. Atlantic Media Company, 14 Aug. 2015.
Web. 17 Apr. 2016.
Schawbel, Dan. "10 New Findings About The Millennial Consumer." Forbes. Forbes Magazine, 20 Jan. 2015. Web.
17 Apr. 2016.
"Technical Difficulties." Our Pizza Better Ingredients. Better Pizza. Papa Johns, n.d. Web. 17 Apr. 2016.
<http://www.papajohns.com/company/how-we-make-better-pizza.html>.
Damodaran, Aswath. "Damodaran Online: Home Page for Aswath Damodaran." Damodaran Online: Home Page for
Aswath Damodaran. New York University, 2015. Web. 17 Apr. 2016. <http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/>.
Rai, Saritha. "How Domino's Reinvented Itself To Win In India." Fast Company. N.p., 13 Jan. 2015. Web. 17 Apr.
2016.
"U.S. Pizza Restaurant Sales 2015." Statista. N.p., 2015. Web. 17 Apr. 2016.
<http://www.statista.com/statistics/291403/us-pizza-restaurant-sales/>.
Provencher, Véronique, C. Peter Herman, and Janet Polivy. "Perceived Healthiness of Food. If It's Healthy, You
Can Eat More!" ScienceDirect. N.p., 11 Nov. 2008. Web. 17 Apr. 2016.
"Ratings, Interest Coverage Ratios and Default Spread." Ratings and Coverage Ratios. N.p., Jan. 2016. Web. 17 Apr.
2016. <http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ratings.htm>.
Jones, Adam. "Why Domino's Pizza Has So Much Debt." Market Realist. N.p., 25 Mar. 2015. Web. 17 Apr. 2016.
"DPZ:New York Stock Quote." Bloomberg.com. Bloomberg, 16 Apr. 2016. Web. 17 Apr. 2016.
Ferdman, Roberto A. "The Chipotle Effect: Why America Is Obsessed with Fast Casual Food." Washington Post.
The Washington Post, 02 Feb. 2015. Web. 17 Apr. 2016.
Koesterich, Russ. "The Dip In Oil Prices Led To Improved Consumer Spending." Market Realist. Market Realist, 05
Mar. 2015. Web. 17 Apr. 2016.
"Daily Treasury Long Term Rate Data." Resource Center. U.S. Department of the Treasury, 16 Apr. 2016. Web. 17
Apr. 2016. <https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-
rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=longtermrate>.
29 | P a g e
IMF. "IMF Survey : Global Economy Faltering from Too Slow Growth for Too Long." IMF Survey. International
Monetary Fund, 12 Apr. 2016. Web. 17 Apr. 2016.
<http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2016/NEW041216A.htm>.
"Shared Publication." Domino's 2015 Annual Report. Domino's Pizza, 17 Mar. 2016. Web. 17 Apr. 2016.
<https://materials.proxyvote.com/Approved/25754A/20160307/AR_274940/>.
"Shared Publication." Domino's 2015 Annual Report. Domino's Pizza, 05 Jan. 2016. Web. 17 Apr. 2016.
<https://materials.proxyvote.com/Approved/25754A/20160307/AR_274940/#/1/>.

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Domino's Equity Research Report

  • 1. The University of Texas at Dallas 2016 Spring Securities Analysis Competition
  • 2. NYSE: DPZ Recommendation: Sell Industry: QSR – Pizza Current Price: $138.62 Sector: Consumer Discretionary Target Price: $112.47 This report is published for education purposes only by students competing in the Spring 2016 Security Analysis Competition *Target share price for the next 6 months Closing Price: 138.62$ 52- Week High-Low: $ 139.42- $ 98.60 Shares Outstanding: 50.32M EPS (LTM): 3.55$ Market Cap: $ 6.98B LTMDividend Yield: 1.10% Short Interest: 7.45% Beta: 0.80 EV/ EBITDA: 20.6 x P/E: 39.1 x Insitutional Holdings: 94.50% Insider Holdings: 0.40% Market Profile Investment Highlights We initiate our coverage on Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) with a Sell recommendation derived from a price target of $112.47, representing a potential downside of 19%. Our recommendation is primarily driven by the following:  It Started With the Turnaround. In 2010, Domino’s changed their business model, revamping their recipes and increasing innovative technology. Although not the first company to have online ordering, Domino’s has adapted better and more quickly to consumers’ desire for more easily accessible digital ordering. In addition, Domino’s continues their innovation with the advent of the Domino’s Ultimate Delivery Vehicle (DXP) and the Domino’s Robotic Unit (DRU).  The Fleeting Nature of Same Store Sales Growth. Domino’s posted strong domestic same store sales (SSS) growth of 12% in 2015 versus SSS growth of 7.5% in 2014. The firm had international SSS growth of 7.8% in 2015 versus 6.9% in 2014. However, SSS growth has been historically volatile; facing this record-high SSS growth will be difficult for the company and future expectations of growth.  High Debt Load on Their Shoulders. Since IPO, Domino’s has had a large amount of debt. The company has refinanced three times in the last ten years, increasing total debt to $2.24 billion. This is in addition to their existing negative equity. Furthermore, Domino’s has low cash flows and cash on hand, making it difficult for the company to pay back debt without interrupting operations. There is a high probability that they will have to refinance their debt, and at a higher interest rate. Key Financials FY 2015 FY 2016E FY 2017E Revenue: 2,217$ 2,419$ 2,661$ Op. Margin: 405 446 487 Net Margin: 193 207 235 EPS: 3.58 3.87 4.42 ROA: 36.3% 37.3% 37.3% ROIC: 70.2% 81.2% 81.2% Valuation Method Weight Price DCF Valuation 50% 112.51$ P/E Valuation 50% 112.43$ Implied Valuation 112.47$ 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Historical Share Price NYSE:DPZ - Share Pricing ^SPX - Share Pricing Price Target
  • 3. 2 | P a g e Source: Bloomberg Source: RestaurantNews Source: Investor Presentation Top Markets Store Count Potential Store Count % Saturation U.K./ Ireland 881 1,200 73.4% Australia/ New Zealand 653 900 72.6% S. Korea 415 500 83.0% Japan 384 850 45.2% Canada 384 650 59.1% France 250 1,000 25.0% Netherlands 170 300 56.7% Spain 153 350 43.7% Taiwan 130 150 86.7% Developed Markets Top Markets Store Count Potential Store Count % Saturation India 950 1,800 52.8% Mexico 610 700 87.1% Turkey 457 700 65.3% Saudi Arabia 154 250 61.6% Malaysia 142 350 40.6% Brazil 129 500 25.8% Emerging Markets Source: Bloomberg, Team Research Business Description Domino’s Pizza Inc. (DPZ) is the second largest pizza chain in the world, trailing behind Pizza Hut, but is the leader in pizza deliveries. The company was established in 1960 by brothers Tom and James Monaghan, and was sold to Bain Capital in 1998. Subsequently, in 2007, the company went public and Bain Capital sold their interest in 2010. Domino’s is currently headquartered near Ann Arbor, Michigan in the Domino’s Farms Office Park. Domino’s currently has over 12,500 locations in approximately 80 countries worldwide, with the largest international market being in India. Domestically, Domino’s biggest revenue driver is their supply chain which accounts for 62% of consolidated revenues, or $1.38 billion. This business model has allowed them to oversee the quality, type of equipment, and food they serve on a consistent basis. The company plans on expanding their international reach by offering items specialized to the region they are in. In 2012, Domino’s started incorporating mobile technology into their ordering system by introducing their app in the Amazon, Apple, and Google online stores. Company Strategies  Supply Chain – Domino’s supply chain model, which accounts for 62% of consolidated revenues, enables the company to implement a universal standardized product throughout all its stores, and create an additional stream of revenue. Additionally, Domino’s incentivizes franchisees to procure supplies from the company through a profit sharing agreement of 50%.  Keeping it Simple – Domino’s focuses their efforts on products they currently serve, rather than spending their resources on launching and promoting new products. Within the past 3 years, they have only introduced 2 new items. Domino’s encourages their franchisees to emphasize on the basics of quality pizza and quick delivery.  Progress in Technology – Domino’s has progressively taken strides to incorporate various forms of technology on their platforms, ranging anywhere from apps to voice recognition software. Recently, they launched AnyWare, a system where customers can order via text, tweet, or voice on various platforms. Domino’s has capitalized on the shift in consumer ordering preferences, with over 50% of orders made digitally.  Renovation of Stores – Domino’s has introduced a new Pizza Theater design where customers can watch their pizza being made from order to completion. This goes in line with the marketing concept of complete transparency. These renovations allow them to contemporize their image and keep up with changing trends.
  • 4. 3 | P a g e Source: Proxy Statement Source: Proxy Statement Source: Proxy Statement Source: Proxy Statement Source: Team Research Management & Culture Domino’s executive board consists of the Chairman of the Board of Directors, CEO, CFO, presidents of U.S. operations, and international operations followed by nine Executive Vice Presidents, and seven Directors. The leadership team brings an extensive variety of experiences, which allows them to lead the company in a positive direction. Since CEO, J. Patrick Doyle, came in to leadership, shares in Domino’s have considerably risen in value, as he pushed for rapid international expansion. He was recognized as the Number 1 Best CEO of 2011 by CNBC and his approval ratings remain positive as he transformed Domino’s from a pizza company to a technology company. Russell J. Weiner, the Chief Marketing Officer and President of Domino’s USA, came to Domino’s in 2008 from PepsiCo. Weiner saw a need in Domino’s for a new marketing strategy when he arrived, and he came up with an idea that Domino’s should use radical honesty to gain the trust of consumers. Domino’s released a series of self-critical advertisements that used this idea and they experienced improved results starting in the first quarter of 2010. Industry Overview and Competitive Positioning Threat of New Entrants (Moderate-High) There is high domestic market saturation. In the previous three years, nearly 3,000 new pizza restaurants were created in the United States, bringing it to a total of 74,812. There are few barriers to entry due to low capital requirements and a low interest rate environment that provides easier access to funding. Also, there is limited amounts of governmental regulations on local pizza restaurants and small chains. The majority of regulations these restaurants have to comply with are health and safety concerns, which are numerous but low-cost. However, there is still high pricing competition, as the trend in bigger chains is to offer more discounts and deals. New entrants are forced to respond at the cost of their revenues, which affects their return on investment and give new entrants a cost disadvantage. There is a reliability on speedy distribution channels and high quality ingredients, leading to increases in respect to the cost-burden on small chain and independent stores. There is high brand “Smart hustle and results-driven. Demanding and customer-focused. Passionate and innovative. Fun with a family feel.” - Domino’s Company Culture Name Age Position J. Patrick Doyle 52 President/CEO Jeffrey D. Lawrence 42 CFO & EVP Richard E. Allison, Jr 49 President Scott R. Hinshaw 53 EVP Russell J. Weiner 47 President
  • 5. 4 | P a g e Source: Bloomberg, Team Research Source: WSJ, Team Research Source: Investor Presentation Source: Wired awareness and brand loyalty. The pizza industry is primarily dominated by established brands, such as Domino’s, Pizza Hut, Papa John’s, and Little Caesars. These brands claim a large portion of customers due to the brand recognition that consumers strongly recognize. Bargaining Powers of Buyers (High) There is high price sensitivity, especially in the aftermath of the recession. Buyers want the best pizza for the cheapest price. Since there is low product differentiation, buyers are willing to sacrifice quality for savings. With the higher availability of digital ordering, buyers are able to easily assess which restaurants offer better discounts. Bargaining Powers of Suppliers (Low) The switching costs to alternative suppliers is low, and there is a large number of suppliers, thus putting pressure on them to be competitive in terms of quality. Some buyers have contracts with fees for early termination, but these fees are a small cost when compared to the purchased volume. Additionally, many pizza chains have long-term relationships with suppliers, which brings down costs for the buyers and also puts pressure on suppliers to keep this consistent revenue stream. With a large labor supply and very few labor unions in the pizza industry, the labor force does not have leverage against their employers, resulting in relatively low labor costs that are reflected in product prices. Threat of Substitutes (High) The pizza segment is a relatively small faction of the entire QSR sector which results in readily available replacements for consumers. Many restaurants are offering delivery options which cuts into the competitive edge of pizza restaurants. There is also a growing trend towards fast-casual restaurants, which is a disadvantage for most pizza chains, as they are quick-service restaurants. There is a trend towards a healthier diet, negatively impacting the pizza industry. In the pizza industry, there is low differentiation in products, so consumers have a wide variety of choice. Competitive Rivalry (High) There is strong market competition between not only major brands, but also between local chains. Smaller local and family-owned chains minimize the profit share of the larger brands. In an attempt to grow customer loyalty, the larger brands are launching loyalty programs to counteract the adverse effects of the low switching cost. Pizza restaurants have traditionally low margins, due to a high cost of sales and lower pricing in order to compete with other restaurants. High concentration of pizza restaurants, up to 3.87 stores per 10,000 people, creates an even more competitive market where consumers have many choices in their local areas.
  • 6. 5 | P a g e 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Percentage of Obese Adults Source: Investor Presentation 7% 5% 6% 7% 8% 4% 3% 5% 8% 12% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Same Store Sales Growth International Domestic Source: Bloomberg, Team Research 93% 7% Revenue by Geographic Segment Domestic International Technological Trends The pizza industry in 2015 had a decrease in total sales by .05%, based off PMQ 2016 Pizza Power Report, and an average same store sales decrease of 2.34% This negatively impacts Independent chains (with fewer than 10 stores), which had total sales drop by 5.01% and average sales drop by 3.21%. The pizza market as a whole has seen a decrease in independent chains market share from 41% to 39% from 2014 to 2015. The negative shift in the demand for independent chains is attributable to the positive shift of consumer spending to digital platforms. Millennials are the largest share of the consumers of pizza, and they prefer ordering online. These trends towards digital ordering are lost on independent chains that are slow to adapt to this electronic environment. This coupled with the value priced menu has increased Domino’s same store sales by 12%. Approximately half of Domino’s orders now come through one of its twelve digital platforms, even by tweeting an emoji of pizza. Domino’s CEO Patrick Doyle told investors that digital ordering leads to higher volumes and repeat customers. Digital ordering is growing 300% faster than dine-in traffic, and mobile ordering is now 23% of all food ordering. Health Trends Consumers are also trending towards what they perceive as healthy foods. This perception is based on the idea that food labels and ingredient lists should be eligible to the layman. With growing trends towards organic, non- GMO, and gluten free foods, restaurants that do not follow these trends are less likely to get repeat customers. The best example of this is Chipotle, which has created a menu of non-GMO and humanely-raised meat. This allows consumers to believe that they are eating healthy food, even though the average calorie count for a burrito is over 900 calories. An example of this within the industry is with Papa John’s revealing that their vegetables are freshly cut in restaurants and meats have no fillers. They even go so far as to disclose the material that the pizza box is made out of. Although the essence of the product hasn’t changed, the transparent disclosure of ingredient puts Papa John’s in a good light with the customer. A study by Janet Polvy and Peter Herman published in Science Direct found that when people perceive the food as healthier, they eat 35% more than the food they perceive as unhealthy. Rising health concerns lie primarily within the U.S., which is where a significant portion of the companies’ revenue is generated. Source: Bloomberg Source: Team Research
  • 7. 6 | P a g e Source: Team Research Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Valuation Method Weight Price DCF Valuation 50% 112.51$ P/E Valuation 50% 112.43$ Implied Valuation 112.47$ 0 1 2 3 4 5 Opportunties Strengths Weaknesses Threats SWOT Source: Team Research Investment Summary We initiate our report with a Sell recommendation on Domino’s Pizza with a target price of $112.47. Our price target came from the use of a Discounted Cash Flow Analysis and Relative Valuation. Our recommendation is based upon Domino’s large amount of debt, changing consumer preferences towards fast-casual, and high valuation multiples. Adding Debt Through Refinancing – Since Domino’s went public in 2004, they have had a large amount of debt on their balance sheet. Over time, this debt has increased approximately 200% through three refinancing deals. This debt is troublesome because of the lack of strong cash flows that Domino’s generates. Only recently has the company had a positive net change in cash over $20 million. Although the likelihood of refinancing remains high in the future, if the deal were to not go through, Domino’s would be severely negatively impacted, as it has the potential to decrease the company’s earning’s power. Furthermore, the company has negative equity, and has had a history of working with this retained deficit. Taking out additional debt, while paying extremely high one-time special dividends during two of its three recapitalization deals, seems to imply that Domino’s is taking needless risks. Fast-Casual Upwards Trend – The QSR industry has been growing slower in the past several quarters because of changing consumer preferences. There has been, and continues to be, a shift towards fast-casual restaurants. These restaurants offer slightly higher quality food and no stigma attached to quick- service, or “fast food.” This shift is based on how consumers perceive the fact that a slight increase in price offers a better quality of food. Furthermore, these restaurants offer an atmosphere that is generally not found in quick-service restaurants, geared towards a more family-friendly environment. Over-valued – In fiscal year 2015, Domino’s had its best record to date. Their same-store sales growth for domestic companies reached a new high. Shortly after the company released its earnings in Q4, the stock price shot up approximately 30% in just a few days. This led to a higher P/E ratio of about 39x, when Domino’s usual P/E range is between 28x-32x, and their competitors’ P/E’s are around 29x. In almost all other multiples, Domino’s is trading at a significant premium relative to its competitors. Domino’s growth factors seem to have been priced into the stock, but we do not see these factors as being sustainable.
  • 8. 7 | P a g e Source: Bloomberg, Team Research Source: Bloomberg, Team Research Source: Bloomberg, Team Research Financial Analysis The financial analysis table highlights Domino’s net income margin growth and the EBITDA margin growth. The growth in net income margin stems from continued Same Store Sales growth on both the domestic and international fronts, as well as new store expansion. With these large net income growths over the years, we expect that Domino’s will continue to hit economies of scale and increase its EBITDA margin by lowering its average costs. Improvements in SG&A margin is due to higher efficiency, as Domino’s continues to digitalize their operations through their PULSE point of sale system and online ordering access points. We expect that the ROA and ROC will arrive at 37.3% and 89.2%, respectively, next year. The firm has utilized its assets and capital more effectively over the year, which, in turn, increased return for their shareholders. We expect these to gradually improve with increased use of technology. The low short term liquidity ratios indicates weakness in the company. A majority of the cash is used to further growth operations, such as new store creation and restructuring existing stores (Pizza Theater design). This increases risk due to Domino’s high debt load and subsequent interest payments. Without enough cash on hand, Domino’s will not be able to pay back their debt when it all comes due. Thus, this long-term debt, while financing current operations and reducing credit crunch risk, may negatively impact future cash flows. Financial Ratios FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E Profitability Ratios Return on Assets % 34.5% 36.8% 39.1% 39.2% 36.3% 37.3% 37.3% 37.3% Return on Capital % 67.2% 75.6% 83.2% 83.3% 70.2% 81.2% 81.2% 81.2% Efficiency Ratios Accounts Receivable Turnover 19.7x 18.5x 18.0x 17.8x 17.7x 18.3x 19.1x 18.9x Accounts Payable Turnover 18.7x 16.0x 15.6x 16.5x 15.9x 17.2x 17.2x 17.2x Margin Analysis Gross Margin % 28.5% 29.9% 30.5% 29.8% 30.8% 30.8% 30.8% 30.8% SG&A Margin % 12.8% 13.0% 13.0% 12.2% 12.5% 12.4% 12.5% 12.6% EBITDA Margin % 17.1% 18.1% 18.6% 19.1% 19.4% 19.6% 19.5% 19.5% Net Income Margin % 6.4% 6.7% 7.9% 8.2% 8.7% 18.4% 18.3% 18.5% Short Term Liquidity Current Ratio 1.7x 1.3x 1.4x 1.6x 1.6x 1.1x 1.1x 1.1x Cash Ratio 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x 0.7x 0.8x 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x Coverage Ratios Total Debt/EBITDA 5.1x 5.2x 4.6x 3.9x 5.2x 3.0x 3.0x 3.0x Net Debt/EBITDA 5.0x 5.0x 4.5x 3.9x 4.9x 2.9x 2.9x 2.9x EBITDA / Interest Exp. 3.1x 3.0x 3.8x 4.4x 4.3x 4.4x 4.4x 4.4x Leverage Ratios Total Debt/Capital 600.9% 692.9% 624.0% 532.9% 508.6% 417.9% 417.9% 417.9% Total Liabilities/Total Assets 351.7% 379.3% 345.6% 304.5% 325.1% 248.6% 248.6% 248.6%
  • 9. 8 | P a g e Source: Team Research Source: Team Research Source: Team Research Source: Team Research Perpetuity Growth Method Terminal Value: 9,004,188 Terminal Growth Rate 2.5% PV of Terminal Value 6,872,116 Present Value of FCFF: 1,254,319 Implied Enterprise Value 8,126,435 Less: Debt & Capital Leases (2,240,793) Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalent 321,982 Less: Pension: - Implied Equity Value 6,207,624 Dilued Share Outstanding 55,172 Implied Share Price 112.51$ Premium/(Discount) to Current -18.8% One of the biggest risks is Domino’s high debt load, shown through the historical Net Debt/EBITDA ratios. This multiple over 4x indicates concern for a company. Our projections have this ratio decreasing to approximately 2.9x due to an assumption that Domino’s would pay off a significant portion of their debt in the near future. Valuation To value Domino’s, we primarily utilized two valuation methodologies. We incorporated a Discounted Cash Flow Model, and a Company Comparable Analysis in order to take advantage of both the intrinsic and relative valuation methods. As a result, we reached our target share price subsequently. DCF Model (50%) – Our valuation model projects FCF for the next 5 fiscal years and assumes a terminal growth rate of 2.5%. As part of the quick-service restaurant industry, Domino’s has revealed to be less cyclical and volatile compared to the market. We used an effective tax rate of 37%. Additionally, we project that Domino’s will grow in line with the expected U.S. GDP of 2.5%. Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) – For our calculation of WACC, we used a risk-free rate of 2.2% as stated on the 20-year Treasury bond and a 5.2% market risk premium. The cost of equity is estimated using the CAPM model using the rates from above. We obtained a beta of 0.8 because of the less cyclical nature of the company as demonstrated through their historical performance. Additionally, we based Domino’s cost of equity on their market value, rather than their book value, as the company has negative common equity on their balance sheet. To find the cost of debt, we used the BBB- default spread and added it to the 20-year Treasury rate. By weighting debt and equity by their market values, we calculated a WACC of 5.55%. Relative Valuation (50%) – Our set of comparable companies consists of Domino’s direct competitors in the QSR Pizza industry, as well as high- growth companies in the overall QSR industry. We removed companies that were incompatible with Domino’s business model. Our relative valuation emphasized P/E multiples. We used the 75th percentile P/E for Domino’s due to their outperformance against the industry average. Comparable P/E 32.4 x Diluted EPS (DPZ) 3.47$ Implied Price (DPZ) 112.43$ P/E Valuation Multiple Turn Price 2016E EBITDA 13.0x 138.21 2017E EBITDA 11.8x 103.69 Comparable Valuation
  • 10. 9 | P a g e Source: Team Research Source: Team Research Source: Capital IQ Source: Team Research FR OR2 MR2 MR1 OR1 Impact Probability Sensitivity Valuation Factors Investment Risks Financial Risk: Higher Availability of Liquidity (FR) – Domino’s, as of January 3rd, 2016, had $2.24 billion dollars’ worth of debt. Without a recapitalization, Domino’s would be forced to pay off their large debt all at once. However, if credit availability remains high, and the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates, Domino’s can continue to refinance their debt obligations with no significant negative impact on operations. Market Risks: Bullish Global Economic Conditions (MR1) – If the global economy grows quickly compared to the current sluggishness, people will have more discretionary income. This could lead to an increase in income allocation towards eating out, which, in turn, would increase traffic per store and enhance the overall QSR industry performance. Independent Chains Continue to Underperform (MR2) – Independent chains are losing market share, and this market share is being absorbed by major chains. This contributed to Domino’s stellar same store sales growth in the last year. Operational Risks Implementation of Technological Improvements (OR1) – If Domino’s recent innovations in technology exceed expectations, it could improve operating efficiency. It would enable them to take cost-cutting measures as human capital would become less of a necessity. Success from Pizza Theater Design (OR2) – Successful implementation of the Pizza Theater Design could increase customer traffic in Domino’s stores, leading to higher sales volume as well as increased same store sales growth. Terminal FCF Growth Rate 11251.3% 1.5% 1.8% 2.0% 2.3% 2.5% 2.8% 3.0% 3.3% 3.5% 4.6% 124.47$ 136.96$ 151.91$ 170.10$ 192.72$ 221.64$ 259.88$ 312.82$ 390.98$ 4.8% 111.05 121.42 133.65 148.27 166.08 188.22 216.52 253.95 305.77 5.1% 99.56 108.28 118.44 130.41 144.72 162.15 183.82 211.52 248.15 5.3% 89.63 97.05 105.59 115.52 127.24 141.25 158.31 179.52 206.64 5.6% 80.97 87.33 94.59 102.95 112.68 124.14 137.86 154.56 175.32 5.8% 73.35 78.85 85.08 92.19 100.37 109.89 121.12 134.54 150.89 6.1% 66.60 71.39 76.78 82.88 89.84 97.85 107.17 118.16 131.31 6.3% 60.58 64.79 69.48 74.76 80.73 87.54 95.38 104.51 115.27 6.6% 55.19 58.90 63.02 67.62 72.78 78.63 85.30 92.97 101.91 DiscountRate (WACC)
  • 11. 10 | P a g e Appendices Table of Contents Appendix 1: Management & Governance ........................................................................................................................... 11 Appendix 2: Shares Outstanding Ownership..................................................................................................................... 12 Appendix 3: 2016 Macro Outlook......................................................................................................................................... 13 Appendix 4: Income Statement............................................................................................................................................. 14 Appendix 5: Balance Sheet..................................................................................................................................................... 15 Appendix 6: Statement of Cash Flows ................................................................................................................................. 16 Appendix 7: Debt Schedule ................................................................................................................................................... 17 Appendix 8: Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement Drivers ........................................................................................ 10 Appendix 9: Expense Assumptions...................................................................................................................................... 19 Appendix 10: Revenue Assumptions................................................................................................................................... 20 Appendix 11: PULSE Point of Sale System.......................................................................................................................... 21 Appendix 12: Domino’s and Competitors SWOT.............................................................................................................. 22 Appendix 13: WACC.............................................................................................................................................................. 23 Appendix 14: DCF................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Appendix 15: Comparable Companies................................................................................................................................ 24 Appendix 16: Comprehensive Ratio Analysis .................................................................................................................... 25 Appendix 17: Recent Litigation............................................................................................................................................. 26 Appendix 18: Sensitivity Analyses....................................................................................................................................... 27 Works Cited ............................................................................................................................................................................. 28
  • 12. 11 | P a g e Appendix 1: Management & Governance Company Executives Board of Directors Name Age Position Compensation Role Start Date David A. Brandon 63 Chairman of the Board of Directors 03/1999 J. Patrick Doyle 52 President, Chief Executive Officer and Director $3,644,550.00 03/2010 Jeffrey D. Lawrence 42 Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President $733,283.00 08/2015 Eric B. Anderson 43 Executive Vice President of International Operations 01/2016 Richard E. Allison, Jr 49 President, International $1,302,950.00 10/2014 Troy A. Ellis 50 Executive Vice President, Supply Chain Services 06/2015 Stanley J. Gage 49 Executive Vice President, Team USA 08/2014 Scott R. Hinshaw 53 Executive Vice President, Franchise Operations and Development $806,981.00 01/2008 Lynn M. Liddle 59 Executive Vice President, Communications, Investor Relations and Legislative Affairs 11/2002 Kenneth B. Rollin 49 Executive Vice President, General Counsel 01/2008 James G. Stansik 60 Executive Vice President, Franchise Relations 01/2008 J. Kevin Vasconi 55 Executive Vice President and Chief Information Officer 03/2012 Russell J. Weiner 47 President, Domino’s USA $1,302,950.00 09/2008 Judith L. Werthauser 50 Executive Vice President, PeopleFirst 01/2016 C. Andrew Ballard 43 Director 07/2015 Andrew B. Balson 49 Director 03/2009 Diana F. Cantor 58 Director 10/2005 Richard L. Federico 61 Director 02/2011 James A. Goldman 57 Director 03/2010 Vernon “Bud” O. Hamilton 73 Director 05/2005 Gregory A. Trojan 56 Director 03/2010
  • 13. 12 | P a g e Appendix 2: Shares Outstanding Ownership Ownership by shares outstanding held (top 15): Bloomberg Ownership by country: Bloomberg Board of Directors Bloomberg
  • 14. 13 | P a g e Appendix 3: 2016 Macro Outlook In 2015, global economic activity remained weak, as the U.S. economy increased GDP at a muted 2.4% while global economies only grew at 3.1%. In the beginning of 2016, many countries were affected by the uncertainty affecting China’s poor financial services and housing economy. However, according to the IMF, global growth is forecasted to increase after 2017 and beyond. The macro environment has been impacted by much uncertainty from both domestic and global factors, which predictably leads to an uncertain outlook. Fluctuating Energy and Commodity Prices Commodity prices declined sharply in the second half of 2015. Strong production of output from the members of OPEC, Russia, and the United States have lowered the price of oil to under $30 per barrel in the last 3 months, and the price is currently around $40. Energy spending by households that make less than $50,000 was 21% of earnings in a study by Bank of America/Merrill Lynch in 2012. Households making more than $50,000 spent around 9% of their earnings. Consumers making a lower income have a higher marginal propensity to consume and are more likely to spend this extra income as oil prices remain low. Strong Dollar and Interest Rates Foreign currency conversion continues to be a major problem for domestic companies with international exposure. Economies in Asia and Europe are looking to expand monetary policy to stimulate demand, driving a higher variance between the U.S. dollar and other currencies. Both the Central Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank implemented negative interest rates. This provides more uncertainty over the next year, as Goldman Sachs continues its bullish-dollar stance. Domestically, the Federal Reserve System raised the interest rate by 0.25% at the end of 2015, and had predicted four equal increases over the course of 2016. However, due to the economic uncertainty in the global environment, the Fed agreed to hold off on increasing the interest rate in the foreseeable future.
  • 15. 14 | P a g e Appendix 4: Income StatementIncomeStatement (Inthousands,exceptpershareamounts)FY06AFY07AFY08AFY09AFY10AFY11AFY12AFY13AFY14AFY15AFY16EFY17EFY18EFY19EFY20E Revenues: DomesticCompany-OwnedStores:$393,406$394,585$357,703$335,779$345,636$336,349$323,652$337,414$348,497$396,916402,537$418,709$432,564$450,029$455,357$ DomesticFranchise:157,741158,050153,858157,780173,345187,007195,000212,369230,192272,808292,223313,637335,976358,168379,971 DomesticSupplyChain:762,782783,330771,106763,733875,517927,904942,2191,009,851------- InternationalFranchise--------152,621163,643192,006221,810257,176298,389349,428 International:123,390126,905142,447146,765176,396200,933217,568242,589------- SupplyChain:--------1,262,5231,383,1611,532,1681,706,4801,897,4052,101,8922,307,728 TotalRevenue:1,437,3191,462,8701,425,1141,404,0571,570,8941,652,1931,678,4391,802,2231,993,8332,216,5282,418,9342,660,6362,923,1223,208,4773,492,484 CostofSales: DomesticCompany-OwnedStores:312,130317,730298,857274,474278,297267,066247,391256,596267,385299,294307,173322,445327,059340,714347,480 DomesticSupplyChain:681,700710,894699,669680,427778,510831,665843,329899,860------- International:58,95855,39263,32762,18075,49882,94686,38196,793------- SupplyChain:--------1,131,6821,234,1031,365,5771,519,2301,686,3591,874,4072,055,657 TotalCostofSales:1,052,7881,084,0161,061,8531,017,0811,132,3051,181,6771,177,1011,253,2491,399,0671,533,3971,672,7501,841,6752,013,4182,215,1212,403,137 GeneralandAdministrative:170,334184,944168,231197,467210,887211,371219,007235,163249,405277,692300,657331,933368,637404,494440,965 TotalOperatingExpenses:1,223,1221,268,9601,230,0841,214,5481,343,1921,393,0481,396,1081,488,4121,648,4721,811,0891,973,4082,173,6082,382,0552,619,6152,844,102 GrossProfit:384,531378,854363,261386,976438,589470,516501,338548,974594,766683,131746,184818,961909,704993,3571,089,347 GrossMargin:36.5%34.9%34.2%38.0%38.7%39.8%42.6%43.8%42.5%44.6%44.6%44.5%45.2%44.8%45.3% IncomeFromOperations:214,197193,910195,030189,509227,702259,145282,331313,811345,361405,439445,526487,028541,067588,863648,382 EBITMargin14.9%13.3%13.7%13.5%14.5%15.7%16.8%17.4%17.3%18.3%18.4%18.3%18.5%18.4%18.6% OtherExpenses(Income): InterestIncome:(1,239)(5,317)(2,746)(683)(244)(296)(304)(160)(143)(313)(432)(495)(614)(542)(423) InterestExpense:55,011130,374114,906110,94596,81091,635101,44888,87286,88199,537117,621114,982112,886101,55786,390 Other:-13,294-(56,275)(7,809)---------- TotalOtherExpenses:53,772138,351112,16053,98788,75791,339101,14488,71286,73899,224117,188114,487112,271101,01585,967 Income(Loss)BeforeProvisionforIncomeTaxes:160,42555,55982,870135,522138,945167,806181,187225,099258,623306,215328,338372,541428,795487,848562,415 EBTMargin ProvisionforIncomeTaxes:54,19817,67728,89955,77851,02862,44568,79582,11496,036113,426121,621137,994158,831180,705208,326 NetIncome(Loss)forthePeriod:106,22737,88253,97179,74487,917105,361112,392142,985162,587192,789206,717234,547269,964307,143354,089 EffectiveTaxRate:33.8%31.8%34.9%41.2%36.7%37.2%38.0%36.5%37.1%37.0%37.0%37.0%37.0%37.0%37.0% BasicEarnings/(Loss)PerShare(EPS):$1.68$0.61$0.93$1.39$1.50$1.79$1.99$2.58$2.963.58$3.874.425.125.866.81 DilutedEarnings/(Loss)PerShare(EPS):$1.65$0.59$0.93$1.38$1.45$1.711.91$$2.48$2.863.47$3.754.284.965.686.59 WeightedBasicSharesOutstanding:63,139,07362,176,56857,755,51957,409,44858,467,76958,918,03856,419,64555,345,55454,918,47153,828,60953,467,91153,107,21252,746,51452,385,81652,025,117 WeightedDilutedSharesOutstanding:64,541,07963,785,12458,339,53557,827,69760,815,89861,653,51958,997,47657,720,99856,931,22655,532,95555,172,25754,811,55854,450,86054,090,16253,729,463 CashDividendsPerShare:$0.48$-$-$-$-$-$3.00$0.80$1.001.24$1.52$1.52$1.52$1.52$1.52$ HistoricalProjected
  • 16. 15 | P a g e Appendix 5: Balance Sheet BalanceSheet (Inthousands,exceptpershareamounts)FY06AFY07AFY08AFY09AFY10AFY11AFY12AFY13AFY14AFY15AFY16EFY17EFY18EFY19EFY20E ASSETS: CurrentAssets: CashandCashEquivalents:$38,222$11,344$45,372$42,392$47,945$50,292$54,813$14,383$30,855$133,449$199,575$276,995$357,989$150,000$165,000 RestrictedCash-80,95178,87191,14185,53092,61260,015125,453120,954180,940130,000130,000150,000150,000165,000 AccountsReceivable,NetofReserves:65,69768,44669,39076,27380,41087,20094,103105,779118,395131,582132,544145,788164,175180,202200,937 Inventories22,80324,93124,34225,89026,99830,70231,06130,32137,94436,86140,06844,11448,22853,05957,563 NotesReceivable,NetofReserves9944406301,0791,5099451,8581,823------- PrepaidExpensesandOther:13,83511,0986,2366,1559,76012,23211,21018,37632,56920,64623,68126,08329,77634,05536,973 AdvertisingFundAssets,Restricted:18,88020,68320,37725,11636,13436,28137,91744,69572,05599,15999,15999,15999,15999,15999,159 DeferredIncomeTaxes:5,8748,9899,03310,62216,75216,57915,29010,7109,857-10,37110,37110,37110,37110,371 AssetHeld-For-Sale:--------5,732------ TotalCurrentAssets:166,305226,882254,251278,668305,038326,843306,267351,540428,361602,637635,398732,511859,697676,846735,003 Property,Plant,andEquipment: LandandBuildings:21,83121,89922,06321,82523,21123,71424,46023,42325,85929,064 LeaseholdandOtherImprovements:83,50386,90983,36283,19083,45179,51880,27990,50899,804111,071 Equipment:162,142176,667167,470170,202175,125171,726168,452174,667178,378186,405 ConstructioninProgress:2,1322,3611,8814,4994,0286,0529,9678,9006,1799,633 TotalGrossProperty,PlantandEquipment:269,608287,836274,776279,716285,815281,010283,158297,498310,220336,173 AccumulatedDepreciationandAmortization:(152,464)(164,946)(166,346)(176,940)(188,431)(188,610)(191,713)(199,914)(196,174)(204,283) NetProperty,PlantandEquipment:117,144122,890108,430102,77697,38492,40091,44597,584114,046131,890160,302191,552228,809269,703317,709 OtherAssets: InvestmentsinMarketableSecurities,Restricted:1,3401,9241,2581,4061,1931,5382,0973,2694,5866,0546,0546,0546,0546,0546,054 NotesReceivables,LessCurrentPortion,NetofReserves:5767401,7421,9362,6685,0703,028894------- DeferredFinancingCosts,NetofAccumulatedAmorization:8,77033,13924,45717,26612,27416,05134,78728,693------- Goodwill:21,31920,77217,67517,60617,35616,64916,59816,59816,29716,09716,09716,09716,09716,09716,097 CapitalizedSoftware,NetofAccumulatedAmortization:16,14210,1303,6723,2337,7888,17611,38714,46420,56228,50528,50528,50528,50528,50528,505 OtherAssets,netofAccumulatedAmortization:8,62510,8779,2609,0248,4908,9588,6359,04610,0068,7979,1729,1729,1729,1729,172 DeferredIncomeTaxes:39,98245,81043,04921,8468,6464,8583,9533,1672,4755,8654,0644,0644,0644,0644,064 TotalOtherAssets:96,754123,392101,11372,31758,41561,30080,48576,13153,92665,31863,89163,89163,89163,89163,891 TotalAssets:380,203473,164463,794453,761460,837480,543478,197525,255596,333799,845859,591987,9541,152,3981,010,4401,116,604 LIABILITIESANDSTOCKHOLDER'SDEFICIT CurrentLiabilities: AccountsPayable:55,03660,41156,90664,12056,60269,71477,41483,40886,552106,92797,023106,821116,783128,482139,387 AccruedCompensation:21,69313,33010,38317,16827,41821,69121,84323,65323,61832,99929,87732,90836,06339,66043,059 AccruedInterest:19,49918,70017,83417,50016,02815,77515,03514,37514,00820,45924,35526,82629,39832,33035,100 AccruedIncomeTaxes:7861,5831,167183----------- InsuranceReserves:8,9799,13410,05612,03213,76713,02312,96413,29714,46517,59714,46514,46514,46514,46514,465 DividendsPayable:------1,50211,84914,351557557557557557557 LegalReserves:----6,64810,0695,0254,959------- AdvertisingFundLiabilities:18,88020,68320,37725,11636,13436,28137,91744,69572,05599,15999,15999,15999,15999,15999,159 OtherAccruedLiabilities:28,85136,35532,49132,93428,69429,71833,449.0034,23139,99438,95247,58552,41357,43963,16768,580 TotalCurrentLiabilities:153,724160,196149,214169,053185,291196,271205,149230,467265,043316,650313,021333,148353,864377,820400,307 Long-TermLiabilities: Revolver:----------12,00025,79739,66753,79967,813 Long-TermDebt:741,5971,720,0831,704,7841,572,8331,452,1561,451,2731,560,7921,536,4431,501,1642,240,7932,180,9932,141,5932,102,1931,715,7121,531,991 InsuranceReserves:22,05420,45920,36915,12717,43821,33424,19525,52826,95123,31426,95126,95126,95126,95126,951 DeferredIncomeTaxes:--14,05017,742-5,0217,0017,8275,588-5,7235,7235,7235,7235,723 OtherAccruedLiabilities:27,72122,565--16,60316,38316,58315,19217,05219,33915,14415,14415,14415,14415,144 TotalLong-TermLiabilities:791,3721,763,1071,739,2031,605,7021,486,1971,494,0111,608,5711,584,9901,550,7552,283,4462,240,8112,215,2072,189,6781,817,3281,647,622 TotalLiabilities:945,0961,923,3031,888,4171,774,7551,671,4881,690,2821,813,7201,815,4571,815,7982,600,0962,553,8312,548,3552,543,5422,195,1482,047,929 Stockholders'Deficit: CommonStock&APIC:134,5615972,42325,07346,1335772,2271,22730,1177,44021,64835,85650,06364,27178,479 PreferredStock:--------------- RetainedDeficit:(701,520)(1,444,938)(1,421,705)(1,341,961)(1,254,044)(1,207,915)(1,335,364)(1,289,445)(1,246,921)(1,804,143)(1,712,340)(1,592,708)(1,437,659)(1,245,431)(1,006,257) AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveLoss:2,066(5,798)(5,341)(4,106)(2,740)(2,401)(2,386)(1,984)(2,661)(3,548)(3,548)(3,548)(3,548)(3,548)(3,548) TotalStockholders'Deficit:(564,893)(1,450,139)(1,424,623)(1,320,994)(1,210,651)(1,209,739)(1,335,523)(1,290,202)(1,219,465)(1,800,251)(1,694,241)(1,560,401)(1,391,144)(1,184,708)(931,326) TotalLiabilitiesandStockholders'Deficit:380,203473,164463,794453,761460,837480,543478,197525,255596,333799,845859,591987,9541,152,3981,010,4401,116,604 HistoricalProjected
  • 17. 16 | P a g e Appendix 6: Statement of Cash FlowsCashFlowStatement (Inthousands,exceptpershareamounts)FY06AFY07AFY08AFY09AFY10AFY11AFY12AFY13AFY14AFY15AFY16EFY17EFY18EFY19EFY20E CashFlowsFromOperatingActivities: NetIncome:$106,227$37,882$53,971$79,744$87,917$105,361$112,392$142,985$162,587$192,789$206,717$234,547$269,964$307,143$354,089 AdjustmentstoReconcileNetIncometoNetCashProvidedbyOperating Activities: DepreciationandAmortization:32,26631,17628,37724,06424,05224,04223,17125,78335,78832,43429,02731,92832,15435,29334,925 GainsonDebtExtinguishment:---(56,275)(7,809)---------- (Gains)LossesonSale/DisposalofAssets:(2,678)(766)(13,752)1,843403(2,436)540367(1,107)316----- Provision(Benefit)forLossesonAccountsandNotesReceivable:(728)2,3587,7141,542641,428462(1,257)(570)(1,084)----- Provision(Benefit)fordeferredIncomeTaxes:(615)(5,564)2,04619,4766,0278,1694,1936,055(132)1,713(2,846)---- AmortizationofDeferredFinancingCosts,DebtDiscountandOther:3,38038,61211,1039,6217,8376,19014,5966,0945,74612,393----- Non-CashCompensationExpense:5,2188,4059,05917,25413,37013,95417,62121,98717,58717,62314,20814,20814,20814,20814,208 TaxImpactFromEquity-BasedCompensation:---(383)(2,100)(15,589)(16,220)(19,498)(27,583)(17,775)(9,915)(9,915)(9,915)(9,915)(9,915) Other:------(531)-------- ChangesinOperatingAssetsandLiabilities: Decrease(Increase)inAccountsReceivable:687(4,337)(10,304)(7,235)(3,395)(7,713)(6,917)(11,001)(12,710)(13,678)(962)(13,244)(18,387)(16,027)(20,735) Decrease(Increase)inInventories,PrepaidExpensesandOther:1,039(1,503)1,245(1,050)(2,357)(4,904)(703)(242)(11,827)(2,262)(6,242)(6,449)(7,806)(9,111)(7,422) Increase(Decrease)inAccountsPayableandAccruedLiabilities:(10,512)(20,983)(15,293)16,66651821,41924,91421,86722,77669,032(4,693)17,09617,56020,35919,089 Increase(Decrease)inInsuranceReserves:(1,281)(1,092)1,091(3,996)3,7983,1522,8028491,784285505---- NetCashProvidedbyOperatingActivities:133,00384,18875,257101,271128,325153,073176,320193,989192,339291,786225,800268,171297,778341,951384,239 CashFlowsFromInvestingActivities: CapitalExpenditures:(20,204)(42,415)(19,411)(22,870)(25,421)(24,349)(29,267)(40,387)(70,093)(63,282)(57,439)(63,178)(69,411)(76,187)(82,931) ProceedsfromSaleofAssets:14,36913,35428,8743,7302,7376,0312,9884,5189,16012,724----- ProceedsfromSaleofEquityInvestment:--------------- ChangeinRestrictedCash:-(80,951)2,080(12,270)5,611(7,082)32,597(65,438)4,499(59,986)50,940-(20,000)-(15,000) NetRepaymentsofNotesReceivable:868285------------- Other:(965)258549(1,481)(1,307)(1,541)1,0301,574(1,009)1,252(375)4,8275,0265,7285,413 NetCashProvidedby(usedin)InvestingActivities:(5,932)(109,469)12,092(32,891)(18,380)(26,941)7,348(99,733)(57,443)(109,292)(6,874)(58,351)(84,385)(70,459)(92,518) CashFlowsfromFinancingActivities: ProceedsfromIssuanceofLong-TermDebt:100,0002,524,9383,00060,9952,861-1,575,000--1,305,000---492,819305,079 RepaymentsofLong-TermDebtandCapitalLeaseObligation:(95,284)(1,547,201)(18,312)(136,679)(116,760)(890)(1,465,509)(24,349)(12,332)(564,403)(59,800)(39,400)(39,400)(879,300)(488,800) CashPaidforFinancingCosts:(250)(60,337)(278)(552)4,548563--9,0284,814----- ProceedsfromIssuanceofCommonStock:4,6415,7244,4524,3769,45033,5248,9459,45127,58317,77512,00012,00012,00012,00012,000 ProceedsfromExerciseofStockOptions:4,9024,6691,0377582,10015,58916,22019,498(82,407)(738,557)----- TaxBenefitfromStockOptions:5,07522,113272383(5,384)(165,007)(88,238)(97,132)(7,927)(7,431)----- PurchaseofCommonStock:(145,000)(54,548)(42,976)-(1,082)(3,504)(5,845)(8,031)(52,843)(80,329)(85,000)(85,000)(85,000)(85,000)(85,000) CommonStockDividendsandEquivalents:(29,841)(896,972)---(3,760)(185,484)(34,241)-(17,367)(20,000)(20,000)(20,000)(20,000)(20,000) DividendPayable--------------- CapitalContributionandOther:--(726)(77)--(32,538)--(438)----- NetCashusedinFinancingActivities:(155,757)(1,614)(53,531)(70,796)(104,267)(123,485)(177,449)(134,804)(118,898)(80,936)(152,800)(132,400)(132,400)(479,481)(276,721) EffectofExchangeRateChangesonCashandCashEquivalents:(11)17210(567)(125)(300)(1,698)1184741,036----- Increase(Decrease)InCashandCashEquivalents:(28,697)(26,878)34,028(2,980)5,5532,3474,521(40,430)16,472102,59466,12677,42080,994(207,989)15,000 CashandCashEquivalents,AtBeginningofPeriod:66,91938,22211,34445,37242,39247,94550,29254,81314,38330,855133,449199,575276,995357,989150,000 CashandCashEquivalents,AtEndofPeriod:$38,222$11,344$45,372$42,392$47,945$50,292$54,813$14,383$30,855$133,449$199,575$276,995$357,989$150,000$165,000 HistoricalProjected
  • 18. 17 | P a g e Appendix 7: Debt ScheduleDebtSchedule (Inthousands,exceptpershareamounts)FY06AFY07AFY08AFY09AFY10AFY11AFY12AFY13AFY14AFY15AFY16EFY17EFY18EFY19EFY20E MinimumCashBalance130,000130,000150,000150,000165,000 NetchangeinCash,BeforeAdditionalBorrowing66,12677,42080,994(700,808)(290,079) EndingCashBalance,BeforeAdditionalBorrowing199,575276,995357,989(342,819)(140,079) AdditionalBorrowingRequired---492,819305,079 TotalBankLoans+FinanceLeases741,5971,720,0831,704,7841,572,8331,452,1561,451,2731,560,7921,536,4431,501,1642,240,7932,180,9932,141,5932,102,1931,715,7121,531,991 AverageBalanceNA1,230,8401,712,4341,638,8091,512,4951,451,7151,506,0331,548,6181,518,8041,870,9792,210,8932,161,2932,121,8931,908,9521,623,851 InterestExpenseNA130,374114,906110,94596,81091,635101,44888,87286,88199,537117,621114,982112,886101,55786,390 EffectiveInterestRateNA10.6%6.7%6.8%6.4%6.3%6.7%5.7%5.7%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.3% TotalCash+Short-termInvestments38,22292,295124,243133,533133,475142,904114,828139,836151,809314,389329,575406,995507,989300,000330,000 AverageBalanceNA65,259108,269128,888133,504138,190128,866127,332145,823233,099321,982368,285457,492403,994315,000 InterestIncomeNA5,3172,746683244296304160143313432495614542423 EffectiveInterestRateNA8.1%2.5%0.5%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1% HistoricalProjected
  • 19. 18 | P a g e Appendix 8: Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement Drivers BalanceSheetandCashFlowStatementDrivers FY06AFY07AFY08AFY09AFY10AFY11AFY12AFY13AFY14AFY15AFY16EFY17EFY18EFY19EFY20E AccountsReceivable,NetofReserves%LTMRevenue:4.9%4.6%4.8%5.2%5.0%5.1%5.4%5.5%5.6%5.6%5.5%5.5%5.6%5.6%5.8% DaysSalesOutstanding(DSO):17.816.717.718.918.218.519.720.220.520.620.020.020.520.521.0 ReceivablesTurnover:20.5x21.8x20.7x19.3x20.1x19.7x18.5x18.0x17.8x17.7x18.3x19.1x18.9x18.6x18.3x CostofSales:1,052,7881,084,0161,061,8531,017,0811,132,3051,181,6771,177,1011,253,2491,399,0671,533,3971,672,7501,841,6752,013,4182,215,1212,403,137 Inventories: Inventory%LTMCOGS:2.2%2.2%2.3%2.5%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4% DaysofInventoryonHand:8.28.08.59.08.58.99.68.98.98.98.78.78.78.78.7 InventoryTurnover:44.8x45.4x43.1x40.5x42.8x41.0x38.1x40.8x41.0x41.0x41.7x41.7x41.7x41.7x41.7x PrepaidExpensesandOther%ofLTMOpEx:1.1%0.9%0.5%0.5%0.7%0.9%0.8%1.2%2.0%1.1%1.2%1.2%1.3%1.3%1.3% DeferredIncomeTaxesAssetsOther:39,98245,81043,04921,8468,6464,8583,9533,1672,4755,8654,0644,0644,0644,0644,064 DeferredIncomeTaxesAssetsCurrent:5,8748,9899,03310,62216,75216,57915,29010,710-9,85710,37110,37110,37110,37110,371 AccountsPayable%LTMCOGS:5.5%5.3%5.5%5.9%5.3%5.3%6.2%6.4%6.1%6.3%5.8%5.8%5.8%5.8%5.8% DaysPayableOutstanding(DPO)20.019.420.221.719.519.522.823.422.223.021.221.221.221.221.2 PayablesTurnover:18.3x18.8x18.1x16.8x18.8x18.7x16.0x15.6x16.5x15.9x17.2x17.2x17.2x17.2x17.2x AccruedCompensation:21,69313,33010,38317,16827,41821,69121,84323,65332,99923,61829,87732,90836,06339,66043,059 %ofLTMOpEx1.8%1.1%0.8%1.4%2.0%1.6%1.6%1.6%2.0%1.3%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5% AccruedInterest:19,49918,70017,83417,50016,02815,77515,03514,37520,45914,00824,35526,82629,39832,33035,100 %ofLTMOpEx1.6%1.5%1.4%1.4%1.2%1.1%1.1%1.0%1.2%0.8%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2% AccruedIncomeTaxes:7861,5831,167183----------- %ofLTMOpEx0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A OtherAccruedLiabilities:28,85136,35532,49132,93428,69429,71833,44934,23138,95239,99447,58552,41357,43963,16768,580 %ofLTMOpEx2.4%2.9%2.6%2.7%2.1%2.1%2.4%2.3%2.4%2.2%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4% TotalAccruedLiabilities:70,82969,96861,87567,78572,14067,18470,32772,25992,41077,620101,817112,146122,900135,157146,739 5.8%5.5%5.0%5.6%5.4%4.8%5.0%4.9%5.6%4.3%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.2% DeferredIncomeTaxesLiabilities:--14,05017,742-5,0217,0017,827-5,5885,7235,7235,7235,7235,723 InsuranceReservesCurrent:8,9799,13410,05612,03213,76713,02312,96413,29717,59714,46514,46514,46514,46514,46514,465 InsuranceReservesLong-Term:22,05420,45920,36915,12717,43821,33424,19525,52823,31426,95126,95126,95126,95126,95126,951 HistoricalProjected
  • 20. 19 | P a g e Appendix 9: Expense Assumptions ExpenseAssumptions FY06AFY07AFY08AFY09AFY10AFY11AFY12AFY13AFY14AFY15AFY16EFY17EFY18EFY19EFY20E CostofSales: DomesticCompany-OwnedStore:312318299275278267247257267299307322327341347 TotalDCOMargin79.3%80.5%83.6%81.7%80.5%79.4%76.4%76.1%76.7%75.4%76.3%77.0%75.6%75.7%76.3% TotalDCOMarginImprovement(1.2%)(3.0%)1.8%1.2%1.1%3.0%0.4%(0.7%)1.3%(0.9%)(0.7%)1.4%(0.1%)(0.6%) Food:10310399879595889399104109117115122128 MarginStoreRevenues26.2%26.1%27.6%25.8%27.4%28.3%27.1%27.6%28.3%26.1%27.1%27.9%26.7%27.2%28.1% MarginImprovement1.8%0.1%(1.5%)1.8%(1.6%)(0.9%)1.2%(0.5%)(0.7%)2.2%(1.0%)(0.8%)1.2%(0.5%)(0.9%) LaborandOtherRelated:11812211410810698929498115116.74121.01124.15127.81127.96 MarginStoreRevenues30.1%30.8%32.0%32.3%30.6%29.0%28.4%28.0%28.0%29.1%29.0%28.9%28.7%28.4%28.1% MarginImprovement(0.5%)(0.7%)(1.2%)(0.3%)1.7%1.6%0.6%0.4%0.0%(1.1%)0.1%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.3% OccupancyandOtherRelated:504743413835313132323233333434 MarginStoreRevenues12.6%11.9%12.1%12.2%10.9%10.3%9.5%9.3%9.2%8.1%7.9%7.8%7.7%7.5%7.4% MarginImprovement(0.9%)0.7%(0.2%)(0.1%)1.3%0.6%0.8%0.2%0.1%1.1%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.1% Insurance:1212121212121099161718192020 MarginStoreRevenues3.1%3.1%3.3%3.5%3.6%3.7%3.1%2.8%2.7%4.0%4.1%4.2%4.3%4.4%4.5% MarginImprovement0.3%0.0%(0.2%)(0.2%)(0.1%)(0.1%)0.6%0.3%0.1%(1.3%)(0.1%)(0.1%)(0.1%)(0.1%)(0.1%) Other:293431272827272830323334363737 MarginStoreRevenues7.3%8.6%8.6%7.9%8.0%8.1%8.3%8.4%8.5%8.1%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2% MarginImprovement(1.3%)0.1%0.6%(0.1%)(0.1%)(0.2%)(0.0%)(0.2%)0.4%(0.1%)0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% DomesticSupplyChain:682711700680779832843900------- Margin89.4%90.8%90.7%89.1%88.9%89.6%89.5%89.1%------- MarginImprovement(1.4%)0.0%1.6%0.2%(0.7%)0.1%0.4%------- InternationalStores:5955636276838697------- Margin47.8%43.7%44.5%42.4%42.8%41.3%39.7%39.9%------- MarginImprovement4.2%(0.8%)2.1%(0.4%)1.5%1.6%(0.2%)------- SupplyChain:7417667637438549159309971,1321,2341,3661,5191,6861,8742,056 Margin89.7%90.8%90.8%89.1%88.9%89.6%89.4%89.1%89.6%89.2%89.1%89.0%88.9%89.2%89.1% MarginImprovement(1.1%)0.0%1.7%0.2%(0.7%)0.2%0.3%(0.6%)0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%(0.3%)0.1% Total:1,0531,0841,0621,0171,1321,1821,1771,2531,3991,5331,6731,8422,0132,2152,403 Margin(TotalRevenue)73.2%74.1%74.5%72.4%72.1%71.5%70.1%69.5%70.2%69.2%69.2%69.2%68.9%69.0%68.8% MarginImprovement(0.9%)(0.4%)2.1%0.4%0.6%1.4%0.6%(0.6%)1.0%0.0%(0.1%)0.3%(0.2%)0.2% YoYGrowth:3.0%(2.0%)(4.2%)11.3%4.4%(0.4%)6.5%11.6%9.6%9.1%10.1%9.3%10.0%8.5% General&Administrative: Advertising:383935333029283029323333333740 Margin2.7%2.7%2.5%2.4%1.9%1.7%1.6%1.6%1.5%1.4%1.3%1.2%1.1%1.1%1.1% MarginImprovement0.0%0.2%0.1%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0% YoYGrowth:1.3%(9.3%)(6.5%)(8.5%)(5.6%)(3.2%)7.2%(2.0%)10.3%1.6%1.8%1.0%9.8%8.9% Other:132146133165181183191206220246268299335368401 Margin9.2%10.0%9.3%11.7%11.5%11.1%11.4%11.4%11.1%11.1%11.1%11.2%11.5%11.5%11.5% MarginImprovement(0.8%)0.7%(2.4%)0.2%0.4%(0.3%)(0.0%)0.4%(0.0%)(0.2%)(0.1%)(0.2%)0.0%(0.0%) YoYGrowth:10.7%(9.0%)23.8%9.8%1.2%4.6%7.4%7.2%11.5%9.1%11.4%12.2%9.7%9.0% Total:170185168198211211219235249278301332369404441 Margin(TotalRevenue)11.8%12.6%11.8%14.1%13.4%12.8%13.0%13.0%12.5%12.5%12.4%12.5%12.6%12.6%12.6% MarginImprovement(0.8%)0.8%(2.3%)0.6%0.6%(0.3%)(0.0%)0.5%(0.0%)0.1%(0.0%)(0.1%)0.0%(0.0%) YoYGrowth:8.6%(9.0%)17.4%6.8%0.2%3.6%7.4%6.0%11.3%8.3%10.4%11.1%9.7%9.0% TotalOperatingExpenses:1,2231,2691,2301,2151,3431,3931,3961,4891,6491,8111,9732,1742,3822,6202,844 Margin(TotalRevenue)85.1%86.7%86.3%86.5%85.5%84.3%83.2%82.6%82.7%81.7%81.6%81.7%81.5%81.6%81.4% MarginImprovement(1.6%)0.4%(0.2%)1.0%1.2%1.1%0.6%(0.1%)1.0%0.1%(0.1%)0.2%(0.2%)0.2% YoYGrowth:3.7%(3.1%)(1.3%)10.6%3.7%0.2%6.6%10.7%9.9%9.0%10.1%9.6%10.0%8.6% HistoricalProjected
  • 21. 20 | P a g e Appendix 10: Revenue AssumptionsRevenueAssumptions FY06AFY07AFY08AFY09AFY10AFY11AFY12AFY13AFY14AFY15AFY16EFY17EFY18EFY19EFY20E SameStoreSalesGrowth: DomesticCompany-OwnedStores: YoYGrowthRate(2.2%)1.0%(2.2%)0.9%9.7%4.1%1.3%3.9%6.2%12.2%3.5%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0% DomesticFranchiseStores: YoYGrowthRate(4.4%)(2.1%)(5.2%)0.6%10.0%3.4%3.2%5.5%7.7%11.9%4.0%4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5% DomesticStores: YoYGrowthRate(4.1%)(1.7%)(4.9%)0.5%9.9%3.5%3.1%5.4%7.5%12.0%3.5%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0% InternationalStores: YoYGrowthRate4.0%6.7%6.2%4.3%6.9%6.8%5.2%6.2%6.9%7.8%6.5%5.5%5.5%5.0%5.5% StoreCounts: DomesticCompany-OwnedStore:571571489466454394388390377384376378379385382 YoYGrowthRate0.0%(14.4%)(4.7%)(2.6%)(13.2%)(1.5%)0.5%(3.3%)1.9%(2.0%)0.5%0.3%1.5%(0.8%) DomesticFranchiseStores:4,5724,5844,5584,4614,4754,5134,5404,5964,6904,8164,9605,1195,2985,4845,676 YoYGrowthRate0.3%(0.6%)(2.1%)0.3%0.8%0.6%1.2%2.0%2.7%3.0%3.2%3.5%3.5%3.5% DoemsticStores:5,1435,1555,0474,9274,9294,9074,9284,9865,0675,2005,3375,4975,6785,8696,058 YoYGrowthRate0.2%(2.1%)(2.4%)0.0%(0.4%)0.4%1.2%1.6%2.6%2.6%3.0%3.3%3.4%3.2% InternationalStores:3,2233,4693,7264,0724,4224,8355,2375,9006,5627,3308,0788,8459,72110,74111,923 YoYGrowthRate7.6%7.4%9.3%8.6%9.3%8.3%12.7%11.2%11.7%10.2%9.5%9.9%10.5%11.0% TotalStores:8,3668,6248,7738,9999,3519,74210,16510,88611,62912,53013,41414,34215,39816,61017,981 YoYGrowthRate3.1%1.7%2.6%3.9%4.2%4.3%7.1%6.8%7.7%7.1%6.9%7.4%7.9%8.3% AverageSalesPerStore: DomesticCompany-OwnedStore:688,967691,068731,493720,601761,233853,553834,278865,128924,4031,033,5941,069,6661,107,1041,140,3181,168,8261,192,202 YoYGrowthRate0.3%5.8%(1.5%)5.6%12.1%(2.3%)3.7%6.9%11.8%3.5%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0% DomesticFranchiseStores:34,49334,49033,76535,37338,72641,43642,95246,21449,08356,64558,91061,26763,41165,31366,946 YoYGrowthRate(0.0%)(2.1%)4.8%9.5%7.0%3.7%7.6%6.2%15.4%4.0%4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5% DoemsticStores:107,155107,216101,367100,183105,275106,644105,256110,269114,210128,788133,332138,048142,240145,849148,820 YoYGrowthRate0.1%(5.5%)(1.2%)5.1%1.3%(1.3%)4.8%3.6%12.8%3.5%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0% DomesticSupplyChain:166,842170,877169,175171,195195,642205,606207,533219,735243,305260,901280,469302,906325,624348,418371,065 YoYGrowthRate2.4%(1.0%)1.2%14.3%5.1%0.9%5.9%10.7%7.2%7.5%8.0%7.5%7.0%6.5% InternationalFranchiseStores:18,77119,11219,61919,00820,64722,31622,93322,661.0223,25522,31923,77025,07726,45727,77929,307 YoYGrowthRate1.8%2.7%(3.1%)8.6%8.1%2.8%(1.2%)2.6%(4.0%)6.5%5.5%5.5%5.0%5.5% InternationalSupplyChain:19,51617,46918,59917,04319,24519,23518,61818,45818,50017,27117,44417,61917,70717,80316,913 YoYGrowthRate(10.5%)6.5%(8.4%)12.9%(0.1%)(3.2%)(0.9%)0.2%(6.6%)1.0%1.0%0.5%0.5%(5.0%) InternationalStores:38,28736,58138,21836,05139,89141,55141,55141,11941,75639,59142,16444,48346,93049,27651,986 YoYGrowthRate(4.5%)4.5%(5.7%)10.7%4.2%(0.0%)(1.0%)1.5%(5.2%)6.5%5.5%5.5%5.0%5.5% Total:171,803169,631162,442156,028167,982169,585165,125165,561171,451176,887180,323185,508189,833193,163194,236 YoYGrowthRate(1.3%)(4.2%)(3.9%)7.7%1.0%(2.6%)0.3%3.6%3.2%1.9%2.9%2.3%1.8%0.6% TotalOperatingRevenue: DomesticCompany-OwnedStore:393395358336346336324337349397403419433450455 YoYGrowthRate0.3%(9.4%)(6.1%)2.9%(2.7%)(3.7%)4.2%3.3%13.9%1.4%4.0%3.3%4.0%1.2% DomesticFranchise:158158154158173187195212230273292314336358380 YoYGrowthRate0.3%(2.7%)2.5%9.8%7.9%4.3%8.9%8.4%18.5%7.1%7.3%7.1%6.6%6.1% DoemsticStores:551553512494519523519550579670695732769808835 YoYGrowthRate0.3%(7.4%)(3.5%)5.1%0.8%(0.9%)6.0%5.3%15.7%3.7%5.4%4.9%5.2%3.4% DomesticSupplyChain:7637837717648769289421,0101,1411,2571,3911,5511,7251,9112,106 YoYGrowthRate2.7%(1.6%)(1.0%)14.6%6.0%1.5%7.2%13.0%10.1%10.7%11.5%11.3%10.7%10.2% InternationalFranchise:6166737791108120134153164192222257298349 YoYGrowthRate9.6%10.3%5.9%18.0%18.2%11.3%11.3%14.1%7.2%17.4%15.5%15.9%16.0%17.1% InternationalSupplyChain:63616969859398109121127141156172191202 YoYGrowthRate(3.7%)14.4%0.1%22.6%9.3%4.8%11.7%11.5%4.3%11.3%10.6%10.4%11.1%5.5% InternationalStores:123127142147176201218243274290333378429490551 YoYGrowthRate2.8%12.2%3.1%20.2%13.9%8.3%11.5%12.9%5.9%14.7%13.4%13.7%14.1%12.6% Total:1,4371,4631,4251,4041,5711,6521,6791,8021,9942,2162,4192,6612,9233,2083,492 YoYGrowthRate1.8%(2.6%)(1.5%)11.9%5.2%1.6%7.4%10.6%11.2%9.1%10.0%9.9%9.8%8.9% HistoricalProjected
  • 22. 21 | P a g e Appendix 11: PULSE Point of Sale System Domino’s computerized management information systems are designed to improve operating efficiencies, provide corporate management with timely access to financial and marketing data and reduce store and corporate administrative time and expense. Domino’s has installed Domino’s PULSE™, their proprietary point-of-sale system, in every Company-owned store in the United States and significantly all of their domestic franchise stores. Some enhanced features of Domino’s PULSE™ over their previous point-of-sale system include: • Touch screen ordering, which improves accuracy and facilitates more efficient order taking; • Delivery driver routing system, which improves delivery efficiency; • Improved administrative and reporting capabilities, which enable store managers to better focus on store operations and customer satisfaction; and • Enhanced online ordering capability, including Pizza Tracker which was introduced in 2007. 30% 11% 59% 2015 43% 21% 36% 2011
  • 23. 22 | P a g e Appendix 12: Domino’s and Competitors SWOT Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats Analysis Dominos Pizza Hut Papa Johns What are your business advantages? 12 Ordering Platforms, 25% marketshare for Delivery Strong Brand name, High brand loyalty Strong brand reliability and loyalty What are your core competencies? Fast Deliveries and Strong marketing Strategies Menu variety and consistent quality Higher quality toppings than competitors (fresh dough, no meat Where are you making the most money? Strong Global Supply Chain (64%) fulfills 99% of Franchises orders 60% of money comes through company sales and 40% through Most of the revenue comes from company-owned restaurant sales What are you doing well? U.S. same store sales 10.7% International store count growth Their emerging market sales growth has been increasing by 4%- Maintaining a high quality in food provided What areas are you avoiding? Avoiding limited time products, only creating stable menu Avoiding international expansion in the African markets Avoiding major international expansion (low international store What are you doing poorly? Underpenetration in the Chinese market and other developed countries Opened 355 stores in Chinese market and same store sales in China declined 5% for FY 15 and Ineffective catering to international markets Where are you losing money? Large currency conversion headwinds from international Their franchises and licensing fees revenues dropped by $4M in Multiple historical lawsuits (underpaying drivers, false What needs improvement? Further focus on markets with strong demand Further focus on the China Division and other international More rapid growth to keep up with competitors Any beneficial trends? 22 consecutive years of positive same store sales internationally Pizza searches in Google are increasing Population is growing more aware of healthy/whole foods Niches that competitors are missing? Growing market share by acquiring and converting The dessert menu is the strongest among pizza chains, partnering Responding well to a growing health conscious market New technologies? New PULSE POS drives supply chain effeciency Innovating delivery technology New eye tracking technology creates pizza based on subconcious desires and eye Implementation of new payment systems for iphone and android that incorporates Google Wallet New needs of customers? Offering gluten free and thin crust pizza for health conscious consumer Offering $5 flavor menu - provides low prices on quality items Big dinner boxes created for large Offering "lighter choices" pizza with less cheese, fresher ingredients for health conscious Aggressive competitors? QSR Market very competitive QSR Market very competitive QSR Market very competitive Successful competitors? Pizza hut has 14.8 % of pizza shares Dominos is the biggest competator with an increasing market share over the last 5 years Pizza hut has 14.8 % of pizza shares Dominos has 13.5% Negative economic conditions? High risk of commodities pricing on cheese, which is their biggest expense Increasing minimum wage would decrease profits on company owned stores which make up a High risk of commodities pricing on cheese, which is their biggest expense Government regulation? Government Regulation of Labeling of food products could increase costs Government Regulation of Labeling of food products could increase costs Government Regulation of Labeling of food products could increase costs Changing business climate? Consumers seeking more fast- casual/upscale dining options Consumers seeking more fast- casual/upscale dining options Consumers seeking more fast- casual/upscale dining options Vulnerabilities? Changing consumer preference (healthy) Supplier scandal over expired meat sales lead to a decrease in High royalty and advertising fees could lower possibility of StrengthsWeaknessesOpportunitiesThreats
  • 24. 23 | P a g e Valuation Method Weight Price DCF Valuation 50% 112.51$ P/E Valuation 50% 112.43$ Implied Valuation 112.47$ Perpetuity Growth Method Terminal Value: 9,004,188 Terminal Growth Rate 2.5% PV of Terminal Value 6,872,116 Present Value of FCFF: 1,254,319 Implied Enterprise Value 8,126,435 Less: Debt & Capital Leases (2,240,793) Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalent 321,982 Less: Pension: - Implied Equity Value 6,207,624 Dilued Share Outstanding 55,172 Implied Share Price 112.51$ Premium/(Discount) to Current -18.8% Appendix 13: Cost of Capital WACC – Domino’s Pizza Inc. ($ in Millions Except Per Share and Per Unit Data) Appendix 14: Discounted Cash Flow Analysis Cost of Capital Weight Risk-free rate 2.2% Market Risk Premium 5.2% Beta 0.80 Cost of Equity 6.3% 74.7% After-tax Cost of Debt 3.3% 25.3% Cost of Preferred Stock 0.0% WACC 5.55% Historical Projected Cash Flow & DCF Model FY11 A FY12 A FY13 A FY14 A FY15 A FY16 E FY17 E FY18 E FY19 E FY20 E After-tax EBIT 280,682 306,828 340,872 370,983 408,481 Depreciation 29,027 31,928 32,154 35,293 34,925 Net change in Working Capital (11,392) (2,596) (8,633) (4,778) (9,068) Capital Expenditure (57,439) (63,178) (69,411) (76,187) (82,931) FCFF 240,878 272,981 294,982 325,311 351,406 % Growth Rate 13.3% 8.1% 10.3% 8.0% Present Value of FCFF 228,206 245,014 250,832 262,069 268,198 Sum of PV of FCFF 1,254,319 Terminal Value 9,004,188 Normal Discount Period 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Mid-year Convention Method 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5
  • 25. 24 | P a g e OperatingStasticsCapitalizationProjectedProjectedProjected ShareEquityEnterpriseRevenueEBITDANetIncomeRevenueEBITDANIEBITDAMarginEPS CompanyNameTickerPriceValueValue20152016E2017E20152016E2017E20152016E2017EGrowthGrowthGrowth20152016E2017E TheWendy'sCompanyWEN10.98$2,950$5,049$1,870$1,312$1,134$392$387$383$161$92$95$(13.5%)(1.0%)4.0%21.0%29.5%33.8% ChipotleMexicanGrill,Inc.CMG469.0913,87213,2094,5014,3425,12389442178447617637818.0%86.2%114.5%19.9%9.7%15.3% PaneraBreadCompanyPNRA210.115,0815,2492,6822,8093,0603944034521491571819.0%12.0%15.7%14.7%14.4%14.8% JackintheBoxInc.JACK68.462,3743,1531,5401,6081,582288324337109123132(1.6%)4.2%7.8%18.7%20.1%21.3% PapaJohn'sInternationalInc.PZZA57.422,1622,4181,6371,7161,8021771872027591985.0%8.1%7.8%10.8%10.9%11.2% Yum!Brands,Inc.YUM81.8433,32336,62713,10513,47213,3172,7842,9653,1711,2931,4051,485(1.2%)7.0%5.7%21.2%22.0%23.8% Domino'sPizzaDPZ138.62$6,911$9,018$2,217$2,419$2,661$438$475$519$193$207$235$10.0%9.3%13.5%19.8%19.6%19.5% Maximum469.09$33,323$36,627$13,105$13,472$13,317$2,784$2,965$3,171$1,293$1,405$1,485$18.0%86.2%114.5%21.2%29.5%33.8% 75thPercentile274.8618,73519,0646,6526,6257,1721,3661,0571,38168048465511.2%30.5%40.4%21.0%23.9%26.3% Median75.154,0165,1492,2762,2622,4313933954171551401571.9%7.6%7.8%19.3%17.3%18.3% 25thPercentile45.812,3212,9691,6131,5341,4702602903031009198(4.6%)2.9%5.2%13.7%10.6%13.9% Minimum10.982,1622,4181,5401,3121,134177187202759195(13.5%)(1.0%)4.0%10.8%9.7%11.2% ValuationStasticsCapitalizationEnterpriseValue/EnterpriseValue/ ShareEquityEnterpriseRevenueEBITDAP/EMultiple CompanyNameTickerPriceValueValue20152016E2017E20152016E2017E20152016E2017E TheWendy'sCompanyWEN10.98$2,950$5,049$2.7x3.8x4.5x12.9x13.0x13.2x22.4x31.4x27.5x ChipotleMexicanGrill,Inc.CMG469.0913,87213,2092.9x3.0x2.6x14.8x31.4x16.8x31.1x79.6x36.4x PaneraBreadCompanyPNRA210.115,0815,2492.0x1.9x1.7x13.3x13.0x11.6x36.3x32.4x27.4x JackintheBoxInc.JACK68.462,3743,1532.0x2.0x2.0x11.0x9.7x9.3x24.0x19.3x16.9x PapaJohn'sInternationalInc.PZZA57.422,1622,4181.5x1.4x1.3x13.7x13.0x12.0x30.4x24.2x21.5x Yum!Brands,Inc.YUM81.8433,32336,6272.8x2.7x2.8x13.2x12.4x11.5x28.0x23.2x20.7x Domino'sPizzaDPZ138.62$6,911$9,018$4.1x3.7x3.4x20.6x19.0x17.4x39.9x35.8x31.4x Maximum469.09$33,323$36,627$2.9x3.8x4.5x14.8x31.4x16.8x36.3x79.6x36.4x 75thPercentile274.8618,73519,0642.8x3.2x3.2x14.0x17.6x14.1x32.4x44.2x29.7x Median75.154,0165,1492.4x2.3x2.3x13.2x13.0x11.8x29.2x27.8x24.4x 25thPercentile45.812,3212,9691.8x1.8x1.6x12.4x11.7x11.0x23.6x22.2x19.7x Minimum10.982,1622,4181.5x1.4x1.3x11.0x9.7x9.3x22.4x19.3x16.9x Appendix 15: Comparable Companies
  • 26. 25 | P a g e Appendix 16: Comprehensive Ratio Analysis Financial Ratios FY06A FY07A FY08A FY09A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Profitability Ratios Return on Assets 31.8% 29.1% 26.6% 25.8% 31.1% 34.5% 36.8% 39.1% 39.2% 36.3% 37.3% 37.3% 37.3% 37.3% 37.3% Return on Invested Capital 66.4% 55.7% 45.3% 44.6% 57.7% 67.2% 75.6% 83.2% 83.3% 70.2% 81.2% 81.2% 81.2% 81.2% 81.2% Efficiency Ratios Accounts Receivable Turnover 20.5x 21.8x 20.7x 19.3x 20.1x 19.7x 18.5x 18.0x 17.8x 17.7x 18.3x 19.1x 18.9x 18.6x 18.3x Days Sales Outstanding 17.7 16.7 17.6 19.2 18.2 18.5 19.7 20.2 20.5 20.9 20.0 20.0 20.5 20.5 21.0 Accounts Payable Turnover 18.3x 18.8x 18.1x 16.8x 18.8x 18.7x 16.0x 15.6x 16.5x 15.9x 17.2x 17.2x 17.2x 17.2x 17.2x Days Payable Outstanding 20.0 19.4 20.0 21.7 19.5 19.5 22.8 23.4 22.2 23.0 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2 Inventory Turnover 44.8x 45.4x 43.1x 40.5x 42.8x 41.0x 38.1x 40.8x 41.0x 41.0x 41.7x 41.7x 41.7x 41.7x 41.7x Days Inventory Outstanding 8.1 8.0 8.4 9.2 8.5 8.9 9.5 8.9 8.9 9.0 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 Cash Conversion Cycle 5.9 5.4 5.9 6.4 7.3 8.0 6.5 5.7 7.4 6.5 7.5 7.5 8.0 8.0 8.5 Margin Analysis Gross Margin 26.8% 25.9% 25.5% 27.6% 27.9% 28.5% 29.9% 30.5% 29.8% 30.8% 30.8% 30.8% 31.1% 31.0% 31.2% SG&A Margin 11.9% 12.3% 11.5% 14.0% 13.4% 12.8% 13.0% 13.0% 12.2% 12.5% 12.4% 12.5% 12.6% 12.6% 12.6% EBITDA Margin 16.7% 18.4% 16.4% 15.2% 16.1% 17.1% 18.1% 18.6% 19.1% 19.4% 19.6% 19.5% 19.5% 19.5% 19.6% EBIT Margin 14.9% 13.6% 14.0% 13.5% 14.5% 15.7% 16.8% 17.4% 17.6% 18.3% 18.4% 18.3% 18.5% 18.4% 18.6% Net Income Margin 7.4% 2.6% 3.8% 5.7% 5.6% 6.4% 6.7% 7.9% 8.2% 8.7% 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% Short Term Liquidity Current Ratio 1.1x 1.3x 1.7x 1.3x 1.6x 1.7x 1.3x 1.4x 1.6x 1.6x 1.1x 1.1x 1.1x 1.1x 1.1x Quick Ratio 0.7x 0.5x 0.8x 0.5x 0.7x 0.7x 0.6x 0.5x 0.6x 0.7x 0.9x 0.9x 0.9x 0.9x 0.9x Cash Ratio 0.9x 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x 0.7x 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x 0.7x 0.8x 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x Coverage Ratios Total Debt/EBITDA 3.1x 6.4x 7.3x 7.4x 5.8x 5.1x 5.2x 4.6x 3.9x 5.2x 3.0x 3.0x 3.0x 3.0x 3.0x Net Debt/EBITDA 2.9x 6.4x 7.1x 7.2x 5.6x 5.0x 5.0x 4.5x 3.9x 4.9x 2.9x 2.9x 2.9x 2.9x 2.9x EBITDA/Interest Expense 4.4x 2.1x 2.0x 1.9x 2.6x 3.1x 3.0x 3.8x 4.4x 4.3x 4.4x 4.4x 4.4x 4.4x 4.4x EBIT/Interest Expense 3.9x 1.5x 1.7x 1.7x 2.4x 2.8x 2.8x 3.5x 4.0x 4.1x 3.9x 3.9x 3.9x 3.9x 3.9x Leverage Ratios Total Debt/Equity NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM Total Debt/Capital 419.7% 637.2% 608.5% 624.5% 601.3% 600.9% 692.9% 624.0% 532.9% 508.6% 419.7% 419.7% 419.7% 419.7% 419.7% Total Liabilities/Total Assets 248.6% 406.5% 407.2% 391.1% 362.7% 351.7% 379.3% 345.6% 304.5% 325.1% 248.6% 248.6% 248.6% 248.6% 248.6%
  • 27. 26 | P a g e Appendix 17: Recent Litigation In August 2012, Ruth Christopher, 65, and her husband Devavaram Christopher, 70, were hit by a Domino's delivery driver who had hydro-planed and crashed into their car on Major Drive. Police found that wet pavement and a bald tire caused the delivery driver to hydroplane into traffic. Ruth later died and Devavaram is left with permanent brain damage. Domino's was sued and was awarded 32 million dollars by a jury. This decision was overturned by a higher court as Domino’s already paid the family 6 million dollars in a pre-trial settlement. This along with the fact that Domino’s does not control the day to day operations of franchisees and has put in the company handbook that drivers vehicles should be checked periodically.
  • 28. 27 | P a g e Appendix 18: Sensitivity Analyses FCF & WACC Same Store Sales
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  • 30. 29 | P a g e IMF. "IMF Survey : Global Economy Faltering from Too Slow Growth for Too Long." IMF Survey. International Monetary Fund, 12 Apr. 2016. Web. 17 Apr. 2016. <http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2016/NEW041216A.htm>. "Shared Publication." Domino's 2015 Annual Report. Domino's Pizza, 17 Mar. 2016. Web. 17 Apr. 2016. <https://materials.proxyvote.com/Approved/25754A/20160307/AR_274940/>. "Shared Publication." Domino's 2015 Annual Report. Domino's Pizza, 05 Jan. 2016. Web. 17 Apr. 2016. <https://materials.proxyvote.com/Approved/25754A/20160307/AR_274940/#/1/>.