More Related Content Similar to Presentation_1364050565342 Similar to Presentation_1364050565342 (20) More from Alexander Nevidimov More from Alexander Nevidimov (20) Presentation_13640505653421. Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman
The ARENA Genome: Harmonic Strategic Planning
Refinement Stages:
Arena, Focus, Action
Create Strategy
Corporate Layer:
Portfolio Businesses
Arena Layers: Maximize Value
Corporate, Business Layer:
Business
Business Positioning Products by
Function- Market Strategy ACTION
Define Hierarchy Function Layer:
Process, Project and Product
Agile value drive
Dynamic Vectors:
Change, Vision, Scenario.
Leader Navigates
Prof. Jacob A. Frankel, Chairman of Sovereign Advisory Group and Global Financial Institutions Group,
Merrill Lynch: JIT inventory management will help quick recovery.
Alex@coman.org Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -1- Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA
2. Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman
Business Action: Skimming (Type I disruptive
Focus: Returning R&D investment, Innovation) production capacity, Limited demand
Constrained
PC Processors VCRs Cell Phone
$ D $ D $ D
Matsushita
Orange
Cellcom
Cyrix K6 Sony
P III
VHS
Celeron Beta
Chasm
486 Niche
Products Satellite
Athlon P IV Beeper Iridium`
$819->$352 Ampex
Power PC Cost Pelephone
Diversification, $50K
Cow Cannibalization
Advantage
Adoption Rate Skim
Utility Follower
Capacity
Cost
Learning Curve Niche Distributors IBM
Leader
Effect
Moor’s Law Hong Kong
Effect
Gillette /Time Mass
Costs-4%/Y Quantity Market /Time
Quantity
Hedged Skimming:
Tang, RDC, Velcro
Alex@coman.org Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -2- Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA
3. Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman
Business Action:
Focus: Maximizing revenues during patent duration; Rigid demand
Storming
Storming Storming Storming
Pharmaceutical
$ D $ D 2.Follower: IBM effect
$ D 3. Open Architecture
Sensor
Mach3 Me Too:No Name
Divide
2. Excel Outsourcing
1. +35% Hong Kong Effect Compaq
Generic Ethical (+60%) Devoted Follower
Viagra
Prozak Atra 1.Leader: Apple
Closed Architecture
Self sufficient
Motorola Intel
Patent
Price
1st Mac OS Apple Apple MS, Lotus IBM
50% 2nd SW Computer Peripherals DOS/SW Computer Peripherals
50% Digital
Time Apple IBM++ Compaq
Distributors HP Dealers
IBM Cluster
Education Business
Alex@coman.org Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -3- Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA
4. Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman
Business Action:
Focus: Market share leadership (Eyeballs, Hits); Lock-in+Oligopoly+Value added
Flooding
Sony: $279+ Leveraged
Flooding RealNetworks Dumping
Nintendo: Dolphin Dumping
$ D IBM+3D by ArtX $ D $ D
Ford MS Xbox
Levittown 1. Server
$299.99 Navigator
Diners’ ($125) Sony 1. Client
Zara Launch: 2.
Navigator Acrobat
IKEA 800K games, Explorer
McDonalds 1.5M@2001 NT
$500M marketing budget
Hybrid Car
Dumping Economies of Scale
$ D Utility/User
2.Toyota
Honda
Total Cost
Users
Bob Metcalf’s
1.
I Network Externalities
B
M
W
Alex@coman.org Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -4- Fax:(972)3-516-8960
hi www.coman.org ARENA
5. Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman
Market
consolidationWeb surfing in US, 50% of time:
March 1999, 50B Mins: 11 sites (60%=110)
March 2001, 73B Mins: 4 sites (60%= 14)
32% America Online Time Warner
1918 Oil Foreign 7.5% Microsoft
Model T Crisis 1/3 7.2% Yahoo
3.6% Napster
10 Disk drive Market
0
Competitors
80
60
40
20
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1991
Alex@coman.org Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -5- Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA
6. Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman
Low Cost Positive
Loop
Differentiation Low
Cost Price Cost/unit
Market Demand: Production Function:
Price Elasticity 3 2 Economies of Scale
1:Skimming 5
Dumping
Quantity 4 Quantity
Sold Manufactured
Alex@coman.org Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -6- Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA
7. Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman
Business Action: Piercing / Guerilla (Type II disruptive
Focus: Penetrating through niche, transforming non-entity into recognized brand
Innovation)
S.E. Asian Guerilla Linux Guerilla
$ D $ D
2.Red Hat
1.Shareware
Copy Left: Gnu, Ada
Dependable-Quality Earth-Moving-Equipment
Strong service and Support
Worldwide Availability
Strong, Loyal Full Line of Local Global Premium
Dealer Network Quality Products Assembly Volume Price
High R&D High Plant Low
Retail Margins Investment Investment Cost
Low Low
Dividends Debt High
Margins
Alex@coman.org Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -7- Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA
8. Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman
Business Action: Komatsu’s strategic Roll-out – Skinning the
Maru-C: “Encircle Caterpillar”
Cat
Protect home market against Caterpillar (’81:50% world earth-moving equipment vs.16%)
Licensing deals with: Cummins Engine, International Harvester.
Acquire technology and establish benchmarks.
Project Ace: Advance quality of small and medium-sized bulldozers above Caterpillar’s
Quality Circles companywide to provide training for all employees
Reduce cost while maintaining quality
Cost Down
Total Cost Down
Make Komatsu an international enterprise and build export markets
Develop Eastern bloc countries
Komatsu Europe marketing subsidiary established
Komatsu America established
Project B to improve durability and reliability and reduce cost of large bulldozers
Project C to improve payloaders
Project D to improve Hydraulic excavators
Establish presale and service department to assist construction projects in newly
industrializing countries
Respond to external shocks that threaten markets
V-10 program to reduce costs by 10%; reduce parts by 20%.
¥180 program to budget companywide for ¥180/$ when exchange rate was ¥240/$
Response to Oil Crisis: Project E establish teams to redouble cost and quality efforts.
Create new products and markets
Accelerate product development to expand line.
Future and Frontiers program to identify new businesses based on society’s needs
and company know-how.
EPOCHS: reconcile greater product variety with improved production efficiencies.
Alex@coman.org Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -8- Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org
(’84:Caterpillar=43% world earth-moving equipment vs.Komatsu=25%) ARENA
9. Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman
Business Action
How Has Compaq Stayed on Top of the Server Industry?, HBR
ProLiant 1000 ProLiant 1000
SystemPro ProSignia Rack Mountable
High
Relative
Level
Low Tim
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 e
Configurability
Manageability
Expandability
Application Compatibility
File and Print Compatibility
Performance
Price
Expandability
Application Compatibility
File and Print Compatibility
Performance
Price
Storability
Servicability
Security
Reliability
Alex@coman.org Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -9- Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA
10. Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman
Business Action: Strategic
Grid
US Office of Patents commissioner: “Everything that can be invented has been invented”,
1899 recommendation that his office be abolished.
Factory Strategic
High
Present ATM, Airline Bank
Strategic
Impact of Support Turnover
Technology Low Restaurant, Municipality, Bookstore, Insurance,
Hospital Broker
Low High
Strategic Grid Future
Strategic Impact of Technology
Disa
er
s
l P ow
tion
Strategic R ea
Importance
Importance
ppo
ct a
Fa
r
xpe
ve
ct
intm
or
o
Window of
tE
y
rn
ent
Tu
a
Support Opportunity
Gre
Time Time
Alex@coman.org Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -10- Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA
11. Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman
Qualcomm 1999 annual Report p. 23
Mobile-Station-Modem Phone Chipsets 6th Generation MSM
50% Smaller; 300Hrs Sand by
Mixed signal; USB data interface
Features MSM3100
MSM5000
2x voice capacity
Faster data rates<153.6kbps
iMSM Family
High Data Rate technology<2.4Mbps
Internet; support3rd party OS/Apps
5th Generation MSM
200 hours standby
Faster data rates<86kbps
IS-95A/95B Compliant
MSM3000
4th Generation MSM
Highly cost effective
MSM2300
3rd Generation MSM
Used in QCP800 phone
MSM2
2nd Generation MSM
Chipset Developed
1st Generation MSM MSM1
R&D begins
Time/
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 Release
Alex@coman.org Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -11- Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA
12. Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman
Wave PLM
Features/
Function Points
NT: Most Demanding Tasks
Windows CE User/Info Dir, Intelli-mirror
NT4.0: Large Data Proc.
1997 update: Cluster
1.6M copies
NT3.51: Web Server
No need for special SW
NT3.5: Faster, Stable
SOHO 2000: Premium,
93 NT3.1: 32 bit Professional,
29K copies Small Business
98: HTML editor
95: TCP/IP
Apr 92: Win 3.1: Screensaver,
TrueType
Mar 93:MS-DOS 6
4.1 5 Disk Backup & Compression
88: DOS 4
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 Time/Release
Alex@coman.org Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -12- Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA
13. Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman
Business Action: Float-glass process substitution
W.Europe
Alex@coman.org Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -13- Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA
14. Management-Of-Technology Copyright © 2001 Alex Coman
Business Action: Supply/Demand Chasm
20Typical Time Horizons by Industry, Mid-to-Late 1980s
Transportation
Transportation
Systems
Communications
Systems
Development Cycle (years)
16
Military &Forestry, Oil
12 Weapons Gas Reserves
Pharmaceuticals
Biotechnology
,Chemicals Mining
8 Paper
Photographic
Metal Products
Automobile
4 Medical&Dental Lodging
Computers Hotels
&Fashion Electronics Publishing Foods
Software
Textiles
Silicon Retailing&EntertainmentTobacco
Foundries
00
Financial 4 8 12 16 20
-Services Approximate Life Cycle of Products (years)
Alex@coman.org Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -14- Fax:(972)3-516-8960 www.coman.org ARENA
Editor's Notes יהודה זיסאפל Management-by-exceptions, by-walking-around. Jack Weltch, Stock market fluctuations, share splits. Hierarchy: accounting -> Hypertext: zoom in/out: resolution management. Professional, geographic concentration. Arena: Focus Action Haaretz, Yuval dror, 29.4.01, G6: Typical processor launch price>$600. Nov. 2000 P4 Launch $/1000 units: 1.4GHz @$644 , 1.5GHz@$819. Last week: 1.7GHz@$352 : -58% (1.5Ghz more expensive@$519!)+0.18 μ(micron) much more expensive. First Quiriat Gat then 2 plants in US. AMD Q12001sales@$1.2B=increase of 9% vs. last year. Intel market share: 81.5%->77.1, AMD: 17.1%->22.2%. Q42001: Intel@2GHz.2001 Fab investment: $7.5B, R&D: $4.2B. Price of Ampex VCR>$50,000 W.C. Kim and R. Mauborgne, “Knowing a winning business idea when you see one, HBR Sept-Oct 2000: “In 1998, motorola rolled out a product that was supposed to redefine the world of mobile telephony. The iridium, declared the company, would be the first mobile phone to provide uninterrupted wireless communication anywhere in the world, no matter what the terrain our country. …Heavy, needed a host of attachments, couldn’t be used in a car or building. Price: $3,000. Kodak Fortune, 29.3.99 Power struggle. Intel: Pentium from ’93. Celeron vs. AMD, Cyrix. Xeon: modified Pentium II for servers&workstations. AMD K6 & K6-2 K6-3for sub$1,000 PCs: Compaq, HP, IBM, NEC. Cyrix MII (subsidiary of NAS). Power Haaretz, 20.5.01, G8” War games: MS vs. Sony”, Xbox: Intel: 733MHz, 8GB Disk. Merrill: $-125/box. IDC: Sony will probably reduce price to $279. “how to charge money from kids?”: Monthly payment for game channel.MS: 200 developers, Sony:300 experienced. Jupiter Media Matrix:Web surfing in US. 50% of time, Click and Mortar HBR, March-April 1997. Based on data collected by Disk/Trend and analyzed by Jonathan Freeman in “The Determinants of Exit from High Growth, High Technology Markets”, Unpublished, Warwick Business School, Coventry, England, 1994. Skinning the cat Skinning the cat. HBR, Hypercompetition, Chris Bartlett Stafan Sigfried, Understanding Object Oriented Software Engineering , IEEE Press, NJ 1996. “ Special Report – Software – The Long and Winding Windows NT Road”, Business Week, February 22, 1999, P. 54 Daily Build Economist, September 20 1997 Business, p. 78 Innovation Explosion , p. 294, Fig. 11.2: “Approximate mid-1980’s time horizons (based on industry interviews) represent an average of the major planning cycles for these industries. Each company and project may vary…Some development cycles have dropped radically since 1990.