Upohan's PoV on the above topic

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SimplyBrilliant–HowGreatOrganizationsDoOrdinaryThingsIn
ExtraordinaryWays!
Redefining
Globalization:
CanAsialead
theworld?
19/01/2018

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AboutUpohan
AsiaataGlance
TheGlobalizationConundrum

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unearth
yourstrategy
unlock
yourprocesses
unite
humancapital
uplift
decisionmaking
unlearn
capabilities
Whatdowedo?

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UnitedStatesUnitedKingdomGermany
Mauritius
IndiaNigeria
SouthAfrica
15countriesandcounting…Workhastakenusfarandnear
SaudiArabia
UnitedArabEmirates
EgyptHongKong
Qatar
200 a year
10,000 a year
KM
SingaporeIndonesiaKuwait

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Wehaveworkedacross16citiesinIndia

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Ourconsultingworkspansacrossmultipleindustriesandsectors
ManufacturingAutomotive
Technology
ConsumerGoods&ServicesEducation
InsuranceRealEstateTelecommunication
MediaBankingFinancialServicesTrading

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FromSMEstolargeconglomerates,wehaveworkedwiththemall

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AboutUpohan
AsiaataGlance
TheGlobalizationConundrum

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Asiaisageographic,economicandculturalexpanseof48diverse
countries

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Withabludgeoningpopulationinexcessof4billion,Asiarepresents
nearly60%oftheworld’spopulation
Globalpopulation,ADB2017

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TheAsianeconomicblocofcountriesaccountsforoverathirdofglobal
GDP

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From12%ofglobalGDPinthe1960stoone-thirdtoday,Asia’s
economicgrowthhasbeenfueledbyJapan,Korea,ChinaandIndia
Japanre-established
itselfasaneconomic
powerhousetolead
Asiaintoaperiodof
growthandrecovery
postWorldWar2
TheRepublicof
Koreausheredthe
nextwaveby
pursuingpoliciesto
boostproduction
andexports
China’seconomic
growthtookoffin
the1980swith
domesticmarket
reformsandanopen
tradepolicy
Indiagradually
embracedeconomic
reformsin1991with
tradeliberalization
andabolishmentof
licenserajregime
ShareofGlobalGDP,ADB2017

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Asia’semergenceasaglobaleconomicheavyweightisslatedto
continue,withChinaandIndialeadingthebrigade
RebalancingofChina’seconomicgrowthmodelwilleaseitsgrowthtrajectory
Indiawillsurgeonthebackofreformsthatwillboostinvestmentandproductivity
RealGDPgrowth(y-o-y)

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Asiancompaniesnowmakeup40%oftheFortuneGlobal500list

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TheAsianregionishometosomeoftheeconomieswiththehighest
averagelifeexpectancyintheworld
TodayanewborninAsiaisexpectedtolivefor71years
LifeExpectancy,ADB2017

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However,Asia’srapidlyageingpopulationrunstheriskofgrowingold
beforebecomingrich
Japanissettobecomethefirstultra-agedcountrywith28%ofthepopulationover65yearsage
AfifthofthepeopleinSouthKoreaareexpectedtobe65by2030
Singaporelaboursupplyforecasttodeclineby1.7%inthe10yearsthrough2026

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AnopportunitydoesexisttoboostGDPbyclosingthegendergapinthe
Asianemploymentmarket
JapaneseGDPcanincreaseby9%
SouthKoreanGDPcanincreaseby10%
IndianGDPcanincreaseby27%

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Despitethepositiveindicatorsofeconomicrevival,Asia’sGDPgrowthis
expectedtomarginallydeclinefrom5.9%in2017to5.8%in2018
5.8%
5.9%
5.8%
201620172018

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Ontheflipside,astheregionhasprospered,itsgrowthhascomeata
cost;CO2emissionsfromAsiaarenearlyhalftheglobaltotal
China,IndiaandIndonesiaareguiltyofleadingtheAsianpackinemissions
CO2 Emissions, ADB 2017

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TheAsianjuggernautissurgingforward,butarethekeygrowthdrivers
inplace?
Strongdemographics
Robustmacrofundamentals
Tradeintegration
Geopoliticalstability

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AboutUpohan
AsiaataGlance
TheGlobalizationConundrum

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Theworldisincreasinglybecomingasombreplace,asevidentfromthe
responsestoarecentsurveyof19countriesbyTheEconomist
Doyouthink
theworldhas
gotbetteror
worseinthe
past12
months,or
hasthere
beenno
change?

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Globalizationisadouble-edgedswordandisadominantyet
controversialeconomicforceintheworldtoday

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Inthemidstofthecurrentscepticaltimes,globalizationisawordoft
usedbutlittleunderstood
Globalization1.0was
largelyconfinedtothe
cross-borderexchange
oftangiblegoods
Globalization2.0isfar
broader,including
growingtradeinmany
intangibleservices
GlobalizationhasNOTmadetheworldflat.Theworldmayhavebecomesmaller
butthepeaksandvalleysstillexist…

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…asvalidatedbyTheEconomist’slatestissuewhichprobesintothehole
thatexistsinplaceoftheIndianmiddleclass

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Globalization2.0ischaracterizedbythespeedoftechnologyabsorption
anddisruption

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Asiawillhavetoembracetechnologycautiouslyinitsquestforleading
theworldintoglobalization
Globalsupplychainswillbeadversely
impactedbyroboticsandAI
3DmanufacturingandJITproduction
capabilitiesargueforsmallersupplychains
andde-centralization

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SomebodyforgottoinstructChinatobringdownTheGreat(fire)Wallif
itwantstobetheposterboyforglobalization

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Globalization’srampantspreadwasfosteredbykeyfactorsthatworked
inunison
Migration
Communication
Corporations
Commerce
Energy
ClimateChange

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Globalizationisincreasinglylosingtheplottonationalistpopulism

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Theleaderofthefreeworldissinglehandedlythwartingglobalization

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Globalizationisgettingmiredingeopoliticalshifts
ChinaisassertingitselfinthePacific
MuddlingMiddleEasternevents
TheKoreanquandary
Exodusofrefugees

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Asiaislikelytoremainageopoliticalcauldronintheforeseeablefuture
Hotbedofterrorism
Territorialdisputesbetweenvirtuallyallcountries
Religiousandethnicconflicts
Biggestconcentrationofcurrentandpossible
futurenuclearpowers

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Globalizationisnowwellandtrulyengulfedinanairofsusceptibleand
vulnerablemalaise
Developedcountriesseemmore
intentonbreakinguptheirown
integratingstructuresthan
establishingnewglobalrelationships
Sanctions,cyberwarfare,
proliferationoffakenews,
‘alternativefacts’areall
hurtingglobalizationefforts

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Recenttrendsinglobaltradearealsoflashingwarningsigns
AccordingtotheInternationalMonetaryFund,
annualgrowthinthevolumeofworldtrade
hasaveragedjust3%overthe2009-2016
period–halfthe6%ratefrom1980to2008

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Japanesedeflationarywoesshownosignsofabatement

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TheReminbimayhavebeenincludedinIMF’sSDRcurrencybasketbut
sluggishgrowthanddebtservicinghaveweakenedthedragon’smight

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ThejuryisstilloutonwhetherIndiawillreapanysustainablebenefits
outoftherecentreforms

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Thereisnosingleconception,voiceoridentityofAsia
ConformistAdaptiveRevisionist

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Chinese,IndianandJapaneseforeignpolicieshaveevolvedbuthavenot
ledtogreaterleadershipinglobalgovernance
NationalAspirationsvs.GlobalGovernance

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SowhatcanAsiadototaketheleadandchampionthecauseof
globalization?
InstitutionslikeAIIBandADB
Movefromone-hubglobalizationto
multiple-hubglobalization
Digitalpushforovercominginfrastructure
hurdles

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SowhatcanAsiadototaketheleadandchampionthecauseof
globalization?
IntraregionalFDIinflows
Fightthewarfortalentandinnovation
Governmentintentbackedwithexecution

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ThelargerAsiangiantscantakealeafoutofSingaporegovernment’s
booktolookbeyondvalueaddingtovaluecreationatagloballevel

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Canacompanybeglobalintheabsenceofoffices,customersand
suppliersineverynookandcorneroftheworld?
CultureandDiversity
Thoughts
Processes
Relevance

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Globalizationisafactoflife,butdonotunderestimateitsfragility
REALITY?HYPE?

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ThankYou