Investment Opportunity, Renewable Power Generation in Indonesia 2017

lintas ebtke
Information & Investment Service
Investment
opportunityof renewable power generation
indonesia, 2017
DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF NEW, RENEWABLE ENERGY,
AND ENERGY CONSERVATION

Investment Opportunity
Of Renewable Power Generation Indonesia 2017
DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF NEW, RENEWABLE ENERGY,
AND ENERGY CONSERVATION

Published by :
Directorate General of New Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation (NREEC)
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (EMR) Republic of Indonesia
Supervisory Committee
Wawan Supriatna, Secretary of the Directorate General of NREEC
Dadan Kusdiana, Head of Bureau for Communication Information Services, and Cooperation
Faisal Rahadian, Ministers’s Expert for NREEC
Steering Committee
Yunus Saefulhak, Director of Geothermal
Sudjoko Harsono Adi, Director of Bioenergy
Maritje Hutapea, Director of Various New and Renewable Energy
Ida Nuryatin Finahari, Director of Energy Conservation
Coordinator Team
Linda Agustina, Head of Legal Affairs
Qatro Romandhi, Head of Planning and Reporting Section
Bintara, Head of Subdirectorate for Investment and Geothermal Cooperation
Elis Heviati, Head of Subdirectorate for Investment and Bioenergy Cooperation
Andriah Feby Misna, Head of Subdirectorate for Various New and Renewable Energy,
Investment and Cooperation
Gita Lestari, Head of Subdirectorate for Energy Conservation Cooperation and Technical
Guidance
Executive Team
PIC Coordination : Bambang Wijiatmoko, Rakhma Wardani
PIC Geothermal : Roy Hendra, Annisa Hasanah
PIC Bioenergy : Nita Apriliani Puteri, Citra Wanurmarahayu
PIC Various New and Renewable Energy : Tony Susandy, Fazri Aditya Pramadya
PIC Data : Abdurrahman Arum, Luna Mutiara, Agung
Feinnudin, Tasya Kamila, Adinda Permatasari, Rudi
Irawan, Akhmad Unggul Priantoro
Design and Lay Out : Okto Rudy

TABLE OF CONTENS
TABLE OF CONTENS.......................................................................................................5
PREFACE .......................................................................................................................9
Part 1................................................................................................................10
BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY OF RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION IN INDONESIA.....10
1. Catching an Opportunity....................................................................................11
A. Renewable Opportunity in Indonesia ...............................................................11
B. Start from Macro ...............................................................................................11
C. Compiling Elements ..........................................................................................12
D. Fossil and Renewables (NRE) ...........................................................................18
2. Preference..........................................................................................................19
A. First, Price Preference; Price is the Key ............................................................20
B. Second, Capacity Preference; Size Is the Key ...................................................21
C. Third, Combined Pricing and Capacity ..............................................................22
D. Price Recommendation .....................................................................................23
3. Graphic Description ..........................................................................................25
A. Planning Graph..................................................................................................25
B. Plan And Potential Graph ..................................................................................28
C. Fossil And NRE Planning Table .........................................................................29
D. Local BPP And Isolated Area Graph ..................................................................30
4. PRIORITY DEVELOPMENT AND JAVA BALI .........................................................31
A. Geothermal .......................................................................................................31
B. Hydro..................................................................................................................32
Part 2................................................................................................................34
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY OF RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION IN INDONESIA
PER PROVINCE ............................................................................................................34
1. EAST NUSA TENGGARA (NTT)............................................................................35
A. Additional Capacity Plan...................................................................................35
B. BPP System Isolated NTT..................................................................................36
2. MALUKU.............................................................................................................37
B. BPP System Isolated Maluku.............................................................................39
3. NORTH MALUKU.................................................................................................40
5
Lintas | EBTKE Investment Opportunity

B. BPP System Isolated Maluku.............................................................................41
4. WEST NUSA TENGGARA (NTB)...........................................................................43
B. BPP System Isolated NTB..................................................................................44
5. BANGKA BELITUNG ISL......................................................................................45
6. PAPUA.................................................................................................................47
B. BPP System Isolated papua...............................................................................48
7. WEST PAPUA......................................................................................................50
B. BPP System Isolated WEST PAPUA....................................................................51
8. NORTH SULAWESI..............................................................................................53
B. BPP System Isolated NORTH SULAWESI...........................................................55
9. CENTRAL SULAWESI..........................................................................................56
B. BPP System Isolated CENTRAL SULAWESI.......................................................57
10. GORONTALO.......................................................................................................58
B. BPP System Isolated Gorontalo.........................................................................59
11. WEST KALIMANTAN............................................................................................60
12. ACEH...................................................................................................................62
B. BPP System Isolated Aceh.................................................................................63
13. EAST KALIMANTAN............................................................................................64
14. NORTH KALIMANTAN.........................................................................................66
15. RIAU....................................................................................................................68
B. BPP System Isolated Riau.................................................................................69
16. RIAU ISL..............................................................................................................70
B. BPP System Isolated RIAU ISL...........................................................................71
17. NORTH SUMATERA.............................................................................................72
B. BPP System Isolated NORTH SUMATERA..........................................................74
18. SOUTH KALIMANTAN.........................................................................................75
6

19. CENTRAL KALIMANTAN.....................................................................................77
20. SOUTH SULAWESI..............................................................................................79
B. BPP System Isolated SOUTH SULAWESI...........................................................81
21. SOUTHEAST SULAWESI......................................................................................82
B. BPP System Isolated SOUTHEAST SULAWESI...................................................83
22. WEST SULAWESI................................................................................................84
B. BPP System Isolated WEST SULAWESI.............................................................85
23. WEST SUMATERA...............................................................................................86
B. BPP System Isolated WEST SUMATERA............................................................87
24. SOUTH SUMATERA.............................................................................................88
B. BPP System Isolated SOUTH SUMATERA..........................................................89
25. JAMBI.................................................................................................................90
B. BPP System Isolated Jambi...............................................................................91
26. BENGKULU.........................................................................................................92
B. BPP System Isolated Bengkulu.........................................................................93
27. LAMPUNG...........................................................................................................94
28. BALI....................................................................................................................96
B. BPP System Isolated Bali...................................................................................97
29. EAST JAWA.........................................................................................................98
B. BPP System Isolated EAST JAWA.....................................................................100
30. DKI JAKARTA.....................................................................................................101
A. Additional Capacity Plan.................................................................................101
31. BANTEN............................................................................................................103
32. WEST JAWA.......................................................................................................105
33. CENTRAL JAWA................................................................................................108
B. BPP System Isolated CENTRAL JAWA..............................................................110
REFERENCE ..............................................................................................................111
ANNEX .......................................................................................................................112
7

PREFACE
9
Thank God we pray to God Almighty over the abundance of His mercy and grace, so the Directorate
General of EBTKE of ESDM Ministry can publish book of Investment Opportunity of Indonesia
Renewable Power Plant 2017.
In collaboration with the Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA), DG EBTKE established
a one stop information and investment service regarding new and renewable energy and energy
efficiency which well known as Lintas EBTKE. Lintas EBTKE provide a fast, efficient, complete, and
accurate one-stop information services to public and prospective developers in particular about
renewables and energy efficiency and the investment opportunities. One of them is an investment
book, Investment Opportunity of Indonesia Renewable Power Plant 2017. Thus involve many
contribution of all parties in Directorate General of EBTKE, Research and Development Board of
KESDM, PT PLN (Persero), DANIDA, and BPPT.
The book use preference system, by arranging all investment opportunities from the highest priority to
the lower. This preference system to assist prospective developers in “search and find” the appropriate
power plants to develop. In the next 10 years, Indonesia will built hundreds of renewable power plants
throughout Indonesia. This information may assist prospective developersto make a fast and accurate
decision.
This book is made in two versions, soft copy and printed versions. The difference is, in the soft copy
version, data of potency is presented per province. While the print version data of potency is made per
nation. There are some paragrafs removed to make printed version more simple but still informative.
We recognize that there are still shortcomings in this book. Therefore, we are open to criticism and
input from any parties. Hopefully the Investment Opportunity of Indonesia Renewable Power Plant
2017 would be very useful and provide a comprehensive information for stakeholders and potential
investors.
Jakarta, September 2017
Director General of EBTKE
Rida Mulyana

PART 1
BUSINESS
OPPORTUNITY
OF RENEWABLE
POWER
GENERATION IN
INDONESIA

1. Catching an Opportunity
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty
(Winston Churcil).
A. Renewable Opportunity in Indonesia
With a very large RE potential (443 GW) and very small usage (8 GW), the investment opportunity
of RE power plant in Indonesia is still widely open. The Government has issued various regulations
to accelerate RE development. Potency mapping is continuously conducted by either government
agencies or by research centers. PT PLN (Persero) as the state-owned company of electricity
development in Indonesia has issued detailed BPP (Biaya Pokok Penyediaan - Cost of Power
Generation) in each region even to the grid level so that it can be a benchmark price. Developers may
self-assess which areas of BPP prices are profitable in their business calculations and which are not.
With all the information available today, the investment opportunities of RE power plants in Indonesia
are widely open to anyone.
B. Start from Macro
Before engaging detailed investment opportunities, let’s start from the big picture first. Because these
information show where the RE policy in Indonesia will go in the long run.
In 2017, the Government issued Presidential Regulation No. 22 of 2017 on the General Plan of National
Energy (RUEN – Rencana Umum Energi National). RUEN is a long term plan of energy use in Indonesia
up to 2050. One of the contents is that Indonesia will develop RE replacing fossil energy significantly,
gradually, and long term. With RUEN, Indonesia insists on sustainable development. Thus, Indonesia
is a big opportunity for RE developers in the world. Every new wave of change, always followed by new
opportunity.
0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Other Renewables Potential Project
Other Renewables Committed Project
Wind Potential Project
Wind Committed Project
Photovoltaic Potential Project
Photovoltaic Committed Project
Bioenergy Potential Project
Bioenergy Committed Project
Hydro Potential Project
Hydro Committed Project
Geothermal Potential Project
Geothermal Committed Project
KEN (Total Target)
Figure 1 NRE power plant development plan
up to 2050 in RUEN
11

Indonesian population is 258 million people in 2016, growing at 1.3% per year, GDP near to a thousand
billion USD in 2016, and economic growth at 5% per year with an increasing, each opportunities exist
in Indonesia is a huge opportunity, even for a large company. With such conditions, the RE investment
opportunity in Indonesia is a huge.
GDP 2016
Figure 2 Indonesia’s macroeconomic and demographic conditions
With consistent growth, by 2050 Indonesia will operate of 443 GW power plant which 167.6 GW is
renewables. That means, Indonesia will build about 160 GW of RE power plants until 2050.
C. Compiling Elements
This book compile the elements of business opportunities available today, assemble systematically,
and business opportunities on RE look brighter. We hope, entrepreneurs can get a complete picture on
the “first look”.
This complete picture will greatly help entrepreneurs to narrow their choices in an accurate way. When
deciding, the basic information is complete and comprehensive. This will help them to decide more
quickly, efficiently, and effectively.
The following is an overview how this book work on the RE opportunity in Indonesia:
950billion USD
67.5
million3,690 USD
218 TWH
258
million
People
Electricity Consumption
51,915 MW
Installed Capacity
HouseholdPercapita
12

Figure 3 Data integration available in the elements of NRE business opportunities in Indonesia
Elements of RE business opportunities in Indonesia are organized into 3 parts, the need (need), ability
to meet the needs, and the ability to create profit from the those process.
The three main data available (RUPTL, Potency, and Price - in dark green hexagon), are presented
to illustrate and construct elements in the NRE business opportunity. In order to provide optimal
benefits, we recommend that the data and internal capabilities of potential developers (capital,
technology, and accurate cost calculation - in bright green hexagon) are well prepared. The
combination of available data and capabilities of prospective developers makes RE business
opportunities can be calculated and targeted highly accurat.
13

1. Needs
Needs are the first element of opportunity. The need for electricity in all modern societies in the world
today is a basic need. Our daily activities are almost totally dependent on electricity. When there was
a one-day power outage, all modern daily activities will be paralyzed and cause economic, social, and
security uncountable losses.
Electrical needs and clean energy needs are actually two different things. Clean energy at first is a
discourse on environmental degradation resulting from the use of dirty energy resulting in a common
awareness to switch to clean energy. So at first, clean energy is a discourse, not a necessity.
Then the discourse turned into real action and plan (the process of clean energy discourse into a real
action takes decades and initiated by developed countries), then clean energy eventually becomes
a necessity. Thus, despite the need for electricity as a whole, there is also a need for electricity
derived from clean energy, as a mandate of “the necessity of all countries” to take part in large and
sustainable efforts to save the environment from degradation. This book is focused on the electricity
needs of clean energy. The need in this book is RE electricity need.
In the open business environment, entrepreneurs must find out about this electricity need. But in
Indonesia, it is not necessary. PT PLN (Perusahaan Listrik Negara - Indonesian state owned company
on electricity) and ESDM Ministry (Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Republic of Indonesia)
have made it. PT PLN is the only company granted the right by the state to distribute electricity to the
public, together with KESDM has conducted an assessment of this need and has made a general plan
to fulfill the need. This general plan is RUPTL (Rencana Umum Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik – General
Electricity Plan).
RUPTL
RUPTL is a long-term (10 year) development plan for electricity infrastructure developed by PLN and
ESDM Ministery. In terms of authority, as compiled by government and the only body has the authority
to build electricity infrastructure, RUPTL is the most applicable national electricity development
plan. In terms of volume, RUPTL also covers more than 90% of power plans in Indonesia. So it can be
simplified, RUPTL is the most complete and applicable national electricity development plan.
RUPTL is the capitalization of electricity needs throughout Indonesia. Private companies no longer
need to identify and quantify these needs, as some one has made it in the form of an applicable plan.
So the need which is the main and first element in RE business opportunity in Indonesia, can be
represented by RUPTL.
RUPTL is widely published by PLN and ESDM Ministery and can be downloaded by anyone. In
addition as a mandate of public information disclosure, this open-to-public RUPTL is intended for all
stakeholders (especially prospective developers) easyly to take a part in infrastructure development of
electricity in Indonesia. This public access will make the synergy of the private and public better and
more efficient.
14

Although compiled for 10 years, RUPTL is updated and published annually. Changes may occure each
year to accommodate changes in conditions encountered or progress achieved.
Will potential developers affect changes in RUPTL? Or can prospective developers propose a power
plant project outside RUPTL to PT PLN and the government?
In principle PT PLN and KESDM open opportunities for changes in RUPTL change the proposals or
initiatives from the outside. In the year 2016 for example, PT PLN and KESDM received proposals
and inputs for mine-mouth power plant development. This type of power plant is more efficient than
ordinary generators in mining areas. The proposal for mine-mouth power plant development was
submitted after the issuance of the Minister of ESDM Regulation No. 19 year 2017 which regulates the
utilization of coal for power plant and purchase of excess power. Several other new proposals will be
incorporated into the RUPTL by 2018.
This means that PT PLN and KESDM receive power plant development plans as inputs from outside
(private or other party) as far as the proposal is better or more efficient than previously planned plans.
Therefore, it is important for prospective developers to study RUPTL and conduct a more in-depth
study of the possibility of building a renewable energy based power plant, and propose it to PT PLN
and KESDM, if it can be proved that the plan is more efficient than the existing plan.
Other Plan
In addition of RUPTL there are some other long term energy development plans in Indonesia. Among
others are :
RUKN : Rencana Umum Ketenagalistrikan National or National General Planning on Electricity. It
is a long-term (20 year) electricity development plan developed by the government, in this case the
Directorate General of Electricity of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources.
RUEN : Rencara Umum Energi National or National General Planning on Energy. It is an energy
development plan (including electricity) formulated by DEN (Dewan Energi National or National Energy
Council). RUEN is the master plan of all energy projects in Indonesia for a very long time. RUEN covers
energy planning timeline until 2050.
Figure 4 Hierarchy of RUEN, RUKN, and RUPTL
15

It’s important for developers to learn about RUEN and RUKN besides RUPTL. Although RUPTL is more
detailed, but in the long run, RUPTL will move closer to or lead to a more general plan, namely RUEN.
From RUEN, the forward direction of RUPTL can be seen. The three general plan hierarchies, in order
from the most common, are RUEN, RUKN, and RUPTL.
In the long run, RUPTL will lead to or follow RUEN. So prospective developers can make their business
development plans far ahead with a higher level of credibility, even if the plan is not included in the
RUPTL, as long as the plan is still within the scope of RUEN.
2. Ability to Meet the Needs
After the first element (needs) is available, the next element to be considered is whether the needs
can be fulfilled or not. To meet these needs, prospective developers must have resources internally,
namely investment capital and technology. These two basic assets are internal assets that should be
owned by all prospective developers and will not be discussed in this book.
Since energy (electricity) can not be created or destroyed and can only be converted from one form of
energy to another, then we need to find the available new and renewable energy (NRE) resources in
nature. Indonesia is a country with considerable renewable resources compared to its needs. In fact,
without considering the cost and technical aspects, Indonesia’s current electricity needs, can actually
be filled 100% with new and renewable resources available in nature.
Below is the data of NRE resources in Indonesia:
Table 1 NRE potential resources in
Indonesia
NO NRE
TYPE POTENTIAL
(MW)
1 Geothermal 29,544

2 Hydro 94,476

3 Bioenergy 32,654

4 Wind 207,898

5 Solar 60,647

6 Ocean
Current 17,989

TOTAL 443,208

For ocean energy, its utilization is still in a development stage. Technically, the prototypes of ocean
energy utilization have shown encouraging results. However, economically, the electricity cost per kwh
is still relatively high so there is still a need for further development in order to enter the global NRE
market.
In general, NRE potential in Indonesia is abundant, with the number of 443 GW, more than 7 times
greater than all power plants installed throughout Indonesia (fossils and NRE). That means, if we are
able to utilize 10% of that potential, then it already covers more than 70% of total installed power
plants in Indonesia. From the potential side, there is no problem with the amount of percentage
targetted for NRE in national energy mix.
16

Due to the scatteered need for electricity in various regions, it is important to present data on the
distribution of NRE resources so that it can be compared with the distribution of electricity needs.
In principle, electricity can be sent anywhere as long as there is electricity grid present. However, the
grid requires expense for development, maintenance costs, in addition to the cost of electricity losses.
The farther the distance from the power plant to the load center, the higher the network cost and the
greater the loss rate. Therefore it is important to build a plant that is not too far from the load center.
Thus, it is also important to know the distribution of NRE resources throughout Indonesia.
This book presents the potential of NRE and its partial distribution across the region. This potential
distribution is also aligned (compared) with the power plant’s (plan) development needs to illustrate
the degree of potential adequacy. With these comparisons, it is expected that potential developers can
easily link and match between development plans and potential resources.
3. Ability to Create Benefit
The purpose of business is to gain profit as a reward from providing added value or meeting the
public needs. Profit is a reciprocal advantage from entrepreneurs for services in meeting those
needs. The economic environment gets the added value of the process of fulfilling the needs made
by entrepreneurs. In return entrepreneurs get the profit from the process. The economic environment
acquires benefits from businesses and entrepreneurs earn profit.
In terms of NRE based electricity supply, this profit can only be obtained by electricity providers if
their electricity price (purchase price by PT PLN, because PT PLN is the sole buyer) is higher than its
production cost and added with risk. Production costs and risk calculations, are entirely within the
scope of prospective developers. Beyond the data presented here, it is very important for prospective
developers to have their own cost and business risk calculations accurately.
The data provided here is the BPP (Electricity Production Cost - Generation) that is used as the
benchmark purchase price by PT PLN. With the existence of BPP PLN, then the selling price of
electricity has been clearly illustrated in each region. To get a quick and accurate review on economic
feasibility, prospective developers are required to compare this selling price with the cost per
electricity production (kWh) and business risks.
Broadly speaking, this book presents the 3 main elements mentioned above, which are an important
part of the 3 stages before potential developers are able to seize the NRE business opportunity in
Indonesia.
17

D. Fossil and Renewables (NRE)
In the Minister of ESDM Regulation No. 50 of 2017 and No. 19 of 2017, the government gives priority
to the development of NRE power plants above fossil (coal). Purchase price for NRE based electricity
is higher by 10% compared to coal based electricity purchase price. For regions with local BPP larger
than national BPP, the general fossil electricity benchmark price is 75% of local BPP, while NRE based
electricity benchmark price is 85% of local BPP. Meanwhile for areas with local BPP below the national
BPP, the difference is higher because NRE based electricity tariff is possibly higher than the local BPP
(negotiable). That means 10% of the price of NRE based electricity is “subsidized” by fossil energy.
The 10% price difference is an NRE incentive over fossils and is expected to foster the growth of NRE
power plants. In addition, 3 priority types of NRE (geothermal, hydro, and municipal waste) bench mark
price are higher than other NRE resources, namely 100% of local BPP.
Figure 5 NRE Incentives above fossils
In addition, the government has also set a 23% NRE mix to be achieved by 2025 and 30% by 2050 from
the total national energy mix. If the 10% price difference mechanism in this market is not enough to
give a strong response and the target mix can not be achieved, it is possible for the government to
revise the regulation or to provide incentives in other forms.
Beyond the government’s efforts to prioritize the development of NRE over fossils, there is
actually a comparative advantage of NRE in Indonesia over fossils in certain areas. In areas where
transportation infrastructure is still very limited, or even no roads exist, fossil power plants operation
will be constrained by fuel accommodation. Fossil power plants require fuel (fuel oil, gas, or coal) that
need handling with adequate transportation system. If this facility is not available, then the cost of
transportation will be expensive or even not economically feasible at all.
While NRE (other than bioenergy) based power plants do not require any fuel, so it is not too
dependent on transportation. Geothermal, hydro, wind, and solar resources do not require fuel
and thus do not require fuel transportation. In areas where transportation systems are difficult or
18

expensive, NRE resources have a comparative advantage when compared to fossils, even without
incentives
2. PREFERENCE
We need an effective and efficient way to choose between hundreds or thousands of choices
IN THIS BOOK, THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES,
THOUSANDS OF ENERGY POTENTIAL,
TENS OF BENCHMARK PRICES, AND IN A 10-YEAR RANGE OF TIME.
THEN, IT REQUIRES AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO SORT THEM SO THAT
ENTREPRENEURS CAN DO A QUICK AND EFFICIENT SELECTION WAY, IN REGARD TO
THEIR PREFERENCES. MEANWHILE, EACH ENTERPRISE, IN GENERAL HAS
DIFFERENT PREFERENCES
There are 3 preferences that can be used in this book from the priority side. These preferences are
common preferences that can be used to assess economic priorities by prospective developers.
A. First, Price Preference; Price is the Key.
Price preference is used because the price determines the margin. The higher the price the higher the
margin and the economy. This price preference generally applied to all types of prospective developers.
The price preference can be seen from two perspectives. First, from the perspective of prospective
developers, high prices indicate that the opportunity for investment is high, so it should be a priority.
There are two reasons why price is the main preference. First, at a high price, spaces for cost and risk
compensation are greater. This means that prospective developers have better discretion to cultivate
risks, as well as to determine a more secure and sustainable technology. Second, high prices will add
a high margin as well. All financial measures or valuations (IRR, NPV, BEP) will improve when margins
are high.
Secondly from public perspective (which in this case is represented by PLN), the high price (from
a public perspective is BPP) indicates that the electricity generation system in the region is less
efficient. Making an area where higher price (BPP) as a priority means making opportunity for better
competitiveness of new power plants.
SOME NRE DO NOT REQUIRE FUELS, THEREFORE DO NOT NEED
FUEL TRANSPORTATION. IN REGIONS WITH INADEQUATE
TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE, NRE HAS COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
COMPARED TO FOSSILS, EVEN WITHOUT SUBSIDIES
19

High price (BPP) priority for public (PLN) will open up bigger opportunities for the grid system to get
larger supply of electricity with wider range of potential developers. From public perspectives (PLN),
regions with high BPP are the regions that need new electricity supply the most to reduce the local
BPP.
Therefore, price priority (BPP) is important both for prospective developers and for the public (PLN).
By using the price preference, the order of regional preference is pictured as follows :
Figure 6 Priority area by price and BPP

-‐

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

NTT

M
ALUKU

NTB
BANGKA
PAPUA

SULUTTENGGO
KALBAR

BELITUNG

NAD

KALTIM
RA

RIAU
&
KEP
RIAU
SUM
UT

KALSELTENG

SULSELRABAR

SUM
BAR

SUM
SEL
JAM
BI
BENGKULU

LAM
PUNG

BALI
JATIM

DKI
JABAR
JATENG

BPP
USc/Kwh

BPP
85%
BPP
BPP
Rate

B. Second, Capacity Preference; Size Is the Key.
For large prospective developers, size is very important because they have a lower size limit or
minimum capacity that economically feasible. Below the minimum capacity, any investment
opportunity at any price, will not be feasible. They make volume or size or capacity as a preference. In
general, the greater the volume the more efficient the system can build. Or, the bigger the volume, the
better the economic feasibility.
From the perspective of prospective developers, the volume or capacity of the proposed plant is the
market size. The larger the size the more economically efficient the project is. For large prospective
developers, capacity can be a top priority, even above the price, because they have the minimum
capacity as a condition before deciding to get involved.
20

Figure 7 Priority area based on volume of power plant development until 2026
From public’s perspective (PLN), capacity is a measure of electricity needs. Making large capacity as
a priority means putting the opportunity to get a more competitive energy source, for areas with high
electricity needs.
For public (PLN) with high electricity needs, they should be able to get electricity more efficiently than
areas with smaller electricity needs. Large markets area have the opportunity to get a cheaper and
better supply of goods. The opportunity of more efficient electricity penetration will increase when
this large electricity demand measure becomes a priority.
By using capacity preference, the region priority is as follows :
C. Third, Combined Pricing and Capacity.
The two priorities mentioned above, only use one side or one measure. Every time we use a single
measure we tend to ignore the other. Though the two measures (price and capacity) are both important
and accurately measured. Both are crucial to the economic and business feasibility of a business
opportunity. It is necessary to create a priority system that can accommodate or combine both, the
price x (times) capacity.
If price and capacity are combined into one priority (price x capacity), the order of regional preference
is pictured as follows :

-‐

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Jawa
Barat

Jawa
tengah

Banten

Sumatera
Utara

Jawa
Timur

Sumatera
Selatan

Sulawesi
Selatan

Aceh

Jambi

Kalimantan
Timur

Kalimantan
Barat

DKI
Jakarta

Riau

Kalimantan
Tengah

Kalimantan
Selatan

NTB

Kalimantan
Utara

Sulawesi
Utara

Ulawesi
Tengah

Bengkulu

Lampung

Sumatera
Barat

Papua

NTT

Maluku

Sulawesi
Tenggara

Kepulauan
Riau

Bangka
Belitung

Maluku
Utara

Papua
Barat

Gorontalo

Sulawesi
Barat

Bali

Priority
development
based
on
volume
unNl
2026
(in
MW)

21

The numbers in the Y-axis (vertical) do not give any meaning except only as the scale of the projection.
In this combined priority (price x capacity), there is no striking difference with the capacity priority.
This is due to the capacity difference that is much more significant than the price difference so that
the influence of capacity is far more greater than influence of price.
These three approaches can be used to make an accurate investment priorities. All three can be
used, depending on the priority options that are closer to the target and the priorities of the potential
developers. Most small or novice potential developers might be more comfortable using price
priorities while large prospective developers can be more comfortable using capacity priorities.
Although that is not always the case.
Since this book can not use all three priorities at once, one option will be chosen as the formulating
system. Price priority is chosen because they will help many starter entrepreneurs and smaller
entrepreneurs, who may need more of this book than larger companies with more resources, to get
complete information.
However, the second (capacity) and third (capacity x price) priorities can still be used by looking
at the priority set of areas in each priority approach, and then continued by looking at investment
opportunities in each of the areas that will be described in the second part of this book.
D. Price Recommendation
Based on Ministerial Regulation No. 50 year 2017, the type of NRE power plant can be grouped into two
groups based on the price benchmark.
Figure 8 Priority area based on price x capacity

-‐

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Jawa
Barat

Jawa
tengah

Sumatera
Utara

Banten

Jawa
Timur

Sumatera
Selatan

Sulawesi
Selatan

Aceh

Kalimantan
Barat

Kalimantan
Timur

NTB

Jambi

Riau

Sulawesi
Utara

NTT

Kalimantan
Tengah

Ulawesi
Tengah

Kalimantan
Utara

Kalimantan
Selatan

Maluku

Papua

DKI
Jakarta

Maluku
Utara

Bengkulu

Sumatera
Barat

Lampung

Bangka
Belitung

Kepulauan
Riau

Sulawesi
Tenggara

Papua
Barat

Gorontalo

Sulawesi
Barat

Bali

Priority
based
on
combinaQon
price

x
volume
unQl
2026
(in
point)

22

The first group comprised of geothermal, hydro, and municipal waste. This group has the maximum
purchase price of 100% from local BPP for region with local BPP above national BPP. For region with
local BPP below the national BPP, mainly Java, Bali, and Sumatera, the purchase price will be based on
agreements between stakeholders (prospective developer and PLN).
The second group comprised of bioenergy (excluding municipal waste), wind, solar, and ocean energy.
This group has the maximum purchase price of 85% from local BPP for region with local BPP above
national BPP. For region with local BPP below the national BPP, mainly Java, Bali, and Sumatera, the
purchase price will be based on agreements between stakeholders (prospective developer and PLN).
Figure 9 The maximum purchase price
of electricity from NRE by PT PLN based
on the Minister ESDM Regulation No 50
Year 2017
In areas where local BPP is above the national BPP, NRE resources that become the development
priorities are geothermal, hydro, and municipal waste (100% of local BPP). Whereas in areas where
BPP is below the national BPP, priority prices for all types of NRE are treated equally.
The price stipulation by stakeholder agreement (prospective developer and PLN) does not mean that
there is no benchmark at all. Because it is not possible for the purchase price in Java and Bali to be
higher than other regions. It is also not possible for Java-Bali purchase price to drop lower than 100%
of local BPP.
Therefore, based on these restrictions, the closest price recommendation from Regulation No. 50
year 2017 (which is a revision of Regulation No. 12 and 43 Year 2017) for the Sumatra-Java-Bali
or any region with local BPP below the national BPP is illustrated in the graph below. The price
recommendation is presented in green areas, that are located between local BPP and national BPP.
23

Figure 10 Recommendations on geothermal, hydro and municipal waste prices
Figure 11 Recommendations for bioenergy, wind, solar and ocean energy prices
24

3. GRAPHIC DESCRIPTION
Visualization and match making assist a quick and efficient understanding and preparation processes
A. Planning Graph
The planning graph is a graph that visually illustrates the plans for the construction NRE and fossil
power plants until 2026.
In accordance with the development stages presented in RUPTL, the stages of development here
are divided into 4 stages, namely: construction stage, commitment stage or PJBL (PPA), procurement
stage, and planning stage (including potential). The stage classification is performed to give an idea
of the probability that potential developers to seize a specific oportunity, and to enter the market.
The probability to enter the market is inversely proportional to the progress of the development. This
means that the more the progress of the development, the smaller the probability of prospective new
developers can enter. And vice versa.
Construction stage
The construction stage is where the physical construction of the plant is on going. Construction stage
usually begins after the prospective developers obtain IUPTL (Electricity Supply Business Permit)
from DGE or BKPM and complete other licenses for construction requirements. At this stage, new
prospective developers are not allowed to enter unless the current developer fails to complete the
construction and PT PLN opens opportunities for new prospective developers to enter.
Commitment stage or PPA
At this stage, PT PLN has signed the PPA or has committed to prospective developers for the
construction of NRE power plants. In RUPTL, this stage is sometimes written by “committed” or “PPA”.
At this stage, new prospective developers can not enter unless the current developer fails to meet the
next steps before construction.
Procurement stage
The procurement stage is the stage of the on going auction process. At this stage, prospective
developers with well prepared groundwork can enter. Meanwhile, prospective developers who are just
starting to perform a prospect study, are not possible to enter because of time constraints, except to
partner with other potential developers who have had the initial preparation.
Planning or potential stage
The planning or potential stage points at projects that are still in the planning phase for future
development. At this stage, all prospective developers with exquisite preparations or those who are
still conducting studies or prospects can enter. Projects that are still in the planning phase are open to
all prospective developers. In addition to the planning phase, there is also the potential stage. And this
is only for NRE projects. What is meant by “potential” here, is not the potential in terms of potential
data as listed in the data / table / potential map. This “potential” means the possibility for NRE
25

projects which PT PLN has considered to be built and incorporated into a power plant development
plan in their grid. So the “potential” in this case can be referred to as a plan in the form of potential
that still requires further study.
Figure 12 Illustration of the existing projects addition in the planning phase when the development grow
THE MORE THE PROGRESS, THE LESS POSSIBLE IT IS TO BE TAKEN BY THE
PROSPECTIVE DEVELOPERS. THEREFORE, THE AUTHOR RECOMMENDS THE
PROSPECTIVE DEVELOPERS TO AIM FOR PROJECTS THAT ARE STILL IN THE
PLANNING AND POTENTIAL STAGES
These stages are based on the progress of development. The further progress, the less likely it can
be taken by prospective developers. The construction phase for example, can not be taken by other
prospective developers unless the construction is stalled and PLN opens opportunities for other
investors to continue the construction.
Therefore, the author recommends new prospective developers that are still in the exploratory or
prospect stage to focus on aiming for projects that are still in the planning and potential stages. At
that stage, there is enough space and time for all types of prospective developers to enter.
Each year, according to the progress of development, there are projects stBPPing up from the planning
stage to procurement stage, from procurement stage to committed stage, from committed stage
to construction stage, and from construction stage to COD. On the other hand, although there are
numbers of projects in the planning stage that proceed to procurement or commitment stage, at the
same time there are always new development project plans coming in. The additional number of new
projects is generally larger than the number of developed projects. This is due to our consistent growth
in electricity demand every year. This means investment opportunities for prospective developers will
always grow larger each year.
26

Renewables and Fossils
All development plans for both NRE and fossil power plants are included in this book. This is because,
projects that are still in the planning stage (which is the target of opportunity for prospective
developers) are always dynamic every year. This means that there are still possibilities for PT PLN
to change the composition of NRE and fossil power plant planning in the coming year, as long as the
proposed projects are better or more efficient than the previous plan, whether the plan or proposal
came from PT PLN itself or prospective developers.
NRE and fossil based power plant planning are both included in the upcoming tables so that potential
developers get the picture of how big the whole system will be built without ruling out the possible
chance in composition. Prospective developers can even propose to PT PLN to include projects based
on their studies, if it can be proved that their projects are more efficient for the whole system, rather
than the original planning composition in RUPTL.
Figure 13 Explanation of the plan table
An example of power plant development planning graph for East Nusa Tenggara province until 2016 in
MW is presented below.
Source: RUPTL PT PLN 2017-2026. Data in table form is processed and classified based on
development stage and presented in graphs. The unit for Y axis is in mega watt (MW).
THERE ARE STILL POSSIBILITIES FOR PLN TO CHANGE THE COMPOSITION OF
NRE AND FOSSIL DEVELOPMENT PLANS, IF THERE ARE PLANS WITH BETTER
FEASIBILITY THAN THE PREVIOUS PLAN
27

B. Plan And Potential Graph
The plan and potential graphs are further elaboration of the planning graphs which are then compared
with the NRE potential graphs in each region. This graph is intended to provide a comparative picture
of the overall magnitude of both fossil and NRE plans that will be the target of prospective developers,
and comparing them to the available NRE potential.
With this graph, prospective developers can measure the difficulties to find potential energy sources
that can be used to meet the plan. The smaller the ratio of NRE potential to NRE plan (potential: plan)
means the more difficult it is to find its resources. In contrast, the greater the comparison between
potential and planning, the easier it is to find its potential. Because it means that the potential is
abundant.
This assumption of ease is a general assumption that may be different if in a follow-up study the
potential location is scattered, or away from the load center, or there are other obstacles that
complicate the potential utilization.
Of all the areas written in this book, almost all regions have abundant potential of NRE resources
compared to their needs. Although of course this still requires further potential study because the
available potential data is still very general. Further studies are still needed.
An example of planning and potential comparison graph for East Nusa Tenggara province is presented
below:
Figure 14 Explanation of benchmark table between plans and resources
28

C. Fossil And NRE Planning Table
This planning table only includes the development of power plants in Indonesia that are still in the
planning and potential stage or projects with large availability for prospective developers to take.
In this planning list, all types of power plants including fossils are included. As explained above,
the fossil power plant planning is also included to give an overall description of total development
plan. In addition, the NRE / fossil composition at the regional level is still dynamic and is open for
modification. Planning table for fossil power plant development are colored in yellow while NRE power
plant development are colored in green.
An example of the fossil and NRE power plants planning table until 2026 in Bangka Belitung is
presented below.
Table 2 Explanation of NRE and fossil generator plan tables
With a detailed planning table, it is expected that potential developers can learn and at the same time
determine which project options have the best or closest to the target they want. In the table, the title
of available data are mostly taken from the location name, type of generator, prospective developer,
size (generating capacity), as well as the target COD (year). As preliminary data, this information is
enough to serve as a consideration for prospective developers, before starting a more detailed study.
For more details about these projects, prospective developers can visit central or regional PLN.
Source: RUPTL PLN 2017-2026. Data in table form is processed and classified based on development
stage and generator type.
29

Figure 15 Explanation graph BPP System Isolated
D. Local BPP And Isolated Area Graph
In this graph, in addition to local BPP, BPP for isolated area in the region are also presented. The local
BPP stated in the region’s brief description (description at the beginning of each region / province) is
the region’s weighted average BPP. In one particular area not all plants are connected to the regional/
main grid. Many areas have separate grids (isolated).
These separate grids actually have their own cost compositions that are different from the cost of the
main grid. Therefore, these grids have their own BPP and need to be included in their respective BPP
separately.
In the graphic above, the weighted average BPP for East Nusa Tenggara are US¢17.52 per kwh (100%)
and US¢14.89 (85%). For Sumba Grid (separate), the weighted average BPP are US¢14.18 per kwh
(100%) and US¢12.05 (85%). Likewise with other separate grids. Not all of the separate grids data are
available (peak load, installed generator capacity, and actual capacity).
Electricity purchase price from all independent power producer shall follow the local BPP of their
respective grid connection as their benchmark price. For example, if the prospective developer
connects their plant to Sumba grid then the BPP benchmark used is BPP of Sumba grid, which are
US¢14.18 per kwh (100%) and US¢12.05 (85%). If the power plant is connected to the main grid, the
BPP benchmark used is BPP of East Nusa Tenggara Province. So the BPP used is the BPP of the grid
that will be connected to the plant, not the BPP of the entire region, or the main grid.
The list of official electricity purchase price is released by PT. PLN in the Attachment of the Minister of
ESDM Decree No. 1404 on the amount of Cost of Provision of Electricity Generation of PT PLN (Persero)
Year 2016. This data is available in table form and processed into graph.
30

Figure 16 Additional Geothermal Capacity Plan upto 2050 based on RUEN
4. PRIORITY DEVELOPMENT AND JAVA BALI
The government prioritizes two types of NRE resources which are abundance in terms of potential and
availability (reliability)
Taking into account the potential and availability of NRE resources, the Indonesian government gives
priority to the development of large NRE power plants using Geothermal and Hydro energy sources.
In addition to the matured technology which development in Indonesia had started since tens of
years ago, the two types of energy potential is very abundant and is suitable for large scale electricity
generation.
A. Geothermal
Indonesia is a country that has the largest geothermal reserves in the world. Approximately 40% of the
world’s geothermal potential is owned by Indonesia. However, the utilization is still low. By the end of
2016, total geothermal power plant operating in Indonesia reached 1,643 MW, placed third as country
with the highest geothermal utilization in the world after USA (3,450 MW) and Philippines (1,870 MW).
By 2018 it is estimated that Indonesia will surpass the Philippines, and by 2023 Indonesia will become
the country with the world’s largest geothermal utilization surpassing the USA.
With a total potential of more than 28 GW, Indonesia has sufficient space to develop large number of
geothermal power plant projects. Based on RUEN, Indonesia will develop 7,239 MW (total installed)
in 2025 and 16,524 MW (total installed) by 2050. This development opens up huge private investment
opportunities.
PROSPECTIVE DEVELOPERS SHOULD BE PROACTIVE IN SEIZING OPPORTUNITIES
OR SUBMITTING THEIR PROJECT PLANS TO PT. PLN ESPECIALLY GEOTHERMAL AND
HYDRO PROJECTS TO BE PRIORITIZED AMONGST OTHER NRE PROJECTS
2016
2025
2050

1,643

7,239

16,524

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1
2
3

Geothermal
development
plan
upto
2050
(in
MW)

31

Figure 17 Hydro power development plan up to 2050 based on RUEN
The government’s efforts to develop Indonesia’s geothermal potential are very progressive by issuing
these following policies:
1. The geothermal electricity tariff is the highest among other NRE resources. For areas with local
BPP above national BPP, other NRE purchase price are rated at 85%, while Geothermal is 100%.
2. Preliminary survey and exploration are done in a package thus the developer with Assignment
of Preliminary Survey and Exploration (APSE or PSPE) permit can simultaneously perform
exploration process while getting prioritized in limited tenders.
3. Currently, the government is drafting the procedure so while performing exploration, the
prospective developer already have the assurance that PT. PLN will buy their electricity.
The goverment’s policies are moving progresively to push prospective developers which are interested
to invest in geothermal sector.
B. Hydro
As the country with the highest precipitation rate in the world, Indonesia has considerable hydro
energy potential spreading out almost in all areas. The total potential of large hydro in Indonesia is
more than 75 GW, much larger than the total installed capacity of the current power plant. Hydro
power plant is largest installed capacity of all renewable power plants. By 2016 the total hydro power
plant in Indonesia reach 4,827 MW. But when compared with the available potency, the total of the
operated plant is very small.
Base on RUEN, Indonesia will operate 18,068 MW of hydropower in 2025 and 45,379 MW by 2050. This
development plan open huge investment opportunities for any private investors.
2016
2025
2050

4,827

18,068

45,379

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

1
2
3

Hydro
power
development
plan
upto
2050
(in
MW)

32

Since the large hydropower plant generally uses reservoirs and requires a large amount of land,
it should involve public-private partnership (PPP) system. For private companies interested in
hydropower development, it is recommended to cooperate with PT PLN or other state-owned
companies. The process of land acquisition and other things involving public interest will be easier
when handled by the government or state-owned company. The private companies can focus on
technical and financing.
Untuk mendorong investasi pembangkit hidro, pemerintah menyiapkan System partnership serta
sharing cost dan operation dengan fungsi waduk untuk listrik, pengairan, dan air baku, sehingga bisa
berbagi biaya pembangunan dan biaya operasional.
To encourage hydro-power investments, the government prepares a partnership system as well as
reservoirs sharing cost and operation for electricity, irrigation and drink water, so that it can share
costs and operation.
33

Part 2
Investment
Opportunity of
renewable power
generation in
indonesia per
Province

1. EAST NUSA TENGGARA (NTT)
Capital : Kupang
Population 2015 : 5,120,000
Peak 2016 : 176 MW
Total installed capacity 2016 : 392.6 MW (Installed) 211.2 MW (Net)
Total additional capacity up to 2026 : 731.5 MW
BPP PLN 2016 : Rp2,332 US¢17.52
85% BPP PLN 2016 : Rp1,982 US¢14.89
A. Additional Capacity Plan
Figure 19 Plan and potential of NRE in East Nusa Tenggara Province (NTT)
Figure 18 East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) power plant development plan
35

NO NAME TYPE DEVELOPER MW COD
1 MPP
NTT Gas/MG PLN 30.0

2018
2 Lembata MG PLN 10.0

2018
3 Waitabula MG PLN 30.0

2019
4 Timor
1 Steam
Coal PLN 100.0

2019/20
5 Kupang
2 MG PLN 50.0

2021
6 Rote
3 MG PLN 5.0

2022
7 Timur
1 MG Unallocated 40.0

2022
8 Timur
2 Steam
Coal Unallocated 100.0

2025/26
TOTAL 365.0

1 Ulumbu
5 Geothermal PLN 20.0

2019
2 Mataloko
(FTP
2) Geothermal PLN 20.0

2020
3 Atadei
(FTP

2020
4 Rote
2 Minihydro PLN 5.0

2020
5 Ulumbu
6 Geothermal PLN 20.0

2021
6 Wae
Rancang
I
-‐
Manggarai Hydro PLN 10.0

2021
7 Wac
Rancang
II
Manggarai Hydro PLN 6.5

2022
8 Bondohula Biomass IPP 1.0

2018
9 Harunda Minihydro IPP 1.6

2019
10 Kupang Wind IPP 20.0

2021
11 Oka
Ile
Ange
(FTP
2) Geothermal IPP 10.0

2024
12 Waisano Geothermal Unallocated 10.0

2025
13 Lesugolo Geothermal Unallocated 5.0

2025
14 Gunung
Sirung Geothermal Unallocated 5.0

2025
TOTAL 144.1

FOSSIL
AND
NRE
POWER
PLANT
DEVELOPMENT
PLANS
B. BPP System Isolated NTT
Table 3 The development of power plants (fossils and NRE) in the planning stage in East Nusa Tenggara Province
Gambar 20 BPP System Isolated Provinsi EAST NUSA TENGGARA (NTT) (NTT)
36

Figure 21 Additional Capacity Plan for electricity Maluku Province
Figure 23 Plan and potential of NRE Maluku Province
2. MALUKU
Capital : Ambon
Population 2015 : 1,687,000
Peak 2016 : 87.2 MW
Total installed capacity 2016 : 151 MW (Installed) 104 MW (Net)
Total additional capacity up to 2026 : 536 MW
BPP PLN 2016 : Rp2,305 US¢17.32
85% BPP PLN 2016 : Rp1,959 US¢14.72
37

1 Bula MG PLN 10.0

2018
2 Namrole MG PLN 10.0

2018
3 MPP
Maluku MG PLN 10.0

2018
4 Langgur
2 MG PLN 10.0

2019
5 Masela MG PLN 20.0

2019
6 Saumlaki MG PLN 10.0

2019
7 Dobo MG PLN 10.0

2019
8 Ambon MG PLN 40.0

2022
9 Seram
2 MG PLN 20.0

2019
10 Seram
Utara MG PLN 20.0

2019
11 Saparua MG PLN 5.0

2020
12 Langgur
3 MG PLN 10.0

2020
13 Namlea
2 MG PLN 10.0

2020
14 Ambon
2 Gas/MG/SG PLN 100.0

2020/21
15 Ambon MG PLN 30.0

2024
16 Langgur
4 MG PLN 10.0

2026
TOTAL 325.0

1 Nua
(Masohi) Minihydro PLN 8.8

2019
2 Sapalewa Minihydro PLN 7.8

2022
3 Wai
Tala Hydro PLN 54.0

2023/24
4 Ambon Wind IPP 20.0

2019
5 Ambon Wind IPP 15.0

2021
6 Nusa
Saumlaki Wind IPP 5.0

2021
7 Keikecil Wind IPP 5.0

2021
8 Wai
Tina Minihydro IPP 12.0

2022
9 Piru Biomass IPP 6.0

2022
TOTAL 133.6

FOSSIL
AND
NRE
POWER
PLANT
DEVELOPMENT
PLANS
Table 4 The development of power plants (fossils and NRE) in the planning stage in Maluku Province
38

B. BPP System Isolated Maluku
Figure 24 BPP System isolated Maluku Province (1)
39

3. NORTH MALUKU
Capital : Ternate
Population 2015 : 1,162,000
Peak 2016 : 60.3 MW
Total additional capacity up to 2026 : 411 MW
BPP PLN 2016 : Rp2,305 US¢17.32
85% BPP PLN 2016 : Rp1,959 US¢14.72
Figure 27 Plan and potential of NRE in North Maluku Province
Figure 26 North Maluku Province power plant development plan
40

1 Ternate
2 Gas/MG PLN 10.0

2018
2 Ternate
2 Gas/MG PLN 20.0

2019
3 Bacan MG PLN 10.0

2018
4 Sanana MG PLN 10.0

2018
5 Malifut
2 MG PLN 20.0

2018
6 Morotai MG PLN 10.0

2019
7 Maba MG PLN 10.0

2019
8 Tidore MG PLN 20.0

2020
9 Tobelo MG PLN 20.0

2019
10 Bacan
2 MG PLN 10.0

2020
11 Sanana
2 MG PLN 5.0

2023
12 Halmahera
1 Gas/MG/SG Unallocated 60.0

2020
13 Halmahera

2021
14 Tidore Gas/MG/SG Unallocated 50.0

2024/25
TOTAL 295.0

1 Songa
Wayaua
(FTP2) Geothermal PLN 10.0

2020
2 Gunung
Hamiding Geothermal Unallocated 20.0

2025
3 Telaga
Ranu Geothermal Unallocated 5.0

2025
TOTAL 35.0

FOSSIL
AND
NRE
POWER
PLANT
DEVELOPMENT
PLANS
Table 5 The development of power plants (fossils and NRE) in the planning stage in North Maluku Province
B. BPP System Isolated Maluku
41

Figure 29 BPP System isolated Maluku Utara Province (2)
42

Figure 30 West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) power plant development plan
Figure 31 Plan and potential of NRE in West Nusa Tenggara Province (NTB)
4. WEST NUSA TENGGARA (NTB)
Capital : Mataram
Population 2015 : 4,836,000
Peak 2016 : 310.8 MW
Total additional capacity up to 2026 : 1,164.63 MW
BPP PLN 2016 : Rp1,821 US¢13.68
85% BPP PLN 2016 : Rp1,547 US¢11.63
43

Table 6 The development of power plants (fossils and NRE) in the planning stage in West Nusa Tenggara Province
Figure 32 BPP System isolated West Nusa Tenggara Province
B. BPP System Isolated NTB
1 MPP
Sambelia MG 30.0

2018
2 Bima
2 MG PLN 30.0

2019
3 Sumbawa
2 MG PLN 30.0

2019
4 Lombok
2 Steam
Coal PLN 100.0

2020
5 Sumbawa
3 MG PLN 50.0

2025
6 Lombok
1 SG Unallocated 150.0

2022
TOTAL 390.0

1 Brang
Beh
1 Hydro PLN 12.0

2023
2 Brang
Beh
2 Hydro PLN 6.0

2024
3 Sembalun
(FTP2) Geothermal PLN 20.0

2024
4 Pringgabaya Solar IPP 5.0

2017
5 Selong Solar IPP 5.0

2017
6 Kuta Solar IPP 5.0

2017
7 Sengkol Solar IPP 5.0

2017
8 Dompu Solar IPP 1.0

2018
9 Sape Solar IPP 1.0

2018
10 Lombok
Biomass IPP 15.0

2021
11 Kokok
Babaq Minihydro IPP 2.3

2022
12 Brang
Rea
2 Minihydro IPP 3.8

2022
13 Brang
Rea
1 Minihydro IPP 2.5

2022
14 Bintang
Bano Minihydro IPP 8.8

2022
15 Sumbawa
2 Steam

2021/22
16 Lombok
3 Steam

2023/24
17 Hu'u
(FTP2) Geothermal IPP 20.0

2025
TOTAL 312.5

FOSSIL
AND
NRE
POWER
PLANT
DEVELOPMENT
PLANS
44

Figure 33 Plans for the development of the Bangka Belitung Islands Province power plant
Figure 34 Plan and potential of NRE in Bangka Belitung Islands Province
5. BANGKA BELITUNG ISL
Capital : Pangkal Pinang
Population 2015 : 1,373,000
Peak 2016 : - MW
Total installed capacity 2016 : 378.6 MW (Installed) 340.5 (Net)
BPP PLN 2016 : Rp1,817 US¢13.66
85% BPP PLN 2016 : Rp1,544 US¢11.61
45

1 Belitung Gas/MG IPP 40.0

2019/2020
2 Bangka-‐IA Steam
Coal PLN 100.0

2020
3 Belitung-‐2 Gas/MG PLN 60.0

2022&2023
4 Bangka-‐IB Steam
Coal IPP 100.0

2024
TOTAL 300.0

1 Cengkong Biogas IPP 2.0

2017
2 PLTBg
(spread) Biogas JP 14.0

2017-‐2026
3 PLTBm
(spread) Biomass IPP 30.0

2017-‐2026
4 PLTBn
(spread) Biomass IPP 10.0

2017-‐2026
5 PLTS
(spread) Solar IPP 5.0

2017-‐2026
TOTAL 61.0

FOSSIL
AND
NRE
POWER
PLANT
DEVELOPMENT
PLANS
Table 7 The development of power plants (fossils and NRE) in the planning stage in the province of Bangka Belitung Islands
46

Figure 35 Development plan of Papua Province power plant
6. PAPUA
Capital : Jayapura
Population 2015 : 3,149,000
Peak 2016 : 145.9 MW
BPP PLN 2016 : Rp1,802 US¢13.54
85% BPP PLN 2016 : Rp1,531 US¢11.51
Figure 36 Plan and potential of NRE in Papua Province
47

1 MPP
Timika Gas/MG PLN 10.0

2018
2 Nabire
2 MG PLN 10.0

2018
3 Merauke
2 MG PLN 20.0

2018
4 Biak
2 Gas/MG PLN 20.0

2018
5 MPP
Papua Gas/MG PLN 10.0

2018
6 Timika
2 Gas/MG PLN 30.0

2018
7 Timika
2 Gas/MG PLN 10.0

2019
8 Sarmi MG PLN 5.0

2019
9 Nabire
2 MG PLN 10.0

2019
10 Serui
2 MG PLN 10.0

2019
11 Jayapura MG PLN 50.0

2019
12 Timika
3 MG PLN 20.0

2019
13 Biak
2 MG PLN 40.0

2021
14 Merauke
3 MG PLN 20.0

2022
15 Serui
3 MG PLN 10.0

2021
16 Timika
4 MG PLN 20.0

2022
17 Jayapura
2 MG PLN 100.0

2020/21
18 Jayapura

2025/26
TOTAL 495.0

1 Digoel Minihydro PLN 3.0

2019
2 Amai Minihydro PLN 1.4

2020
3 Walesi
Blok
II Minihydro PLN 6.0

2022
4 Orya
2 Hydro PLN 14.0

2023
5 Baliem Hydro PLN 50.0

2023-‐2025
6 Merauke Biomass IPP 3.5

2018
TOTAL 77.9

FOSSIL
AND
NRE
POWER
PLANT
DEVELOPMENT
PLANS
Table 8 The development of power plants (fossils and NRE) are still in the planning phase in Papua Province
B. BPP System Isolated papua
Figure 37 BPP System isolated Papua and West Papua Provinces (1)
48

49

7. WEST PAPUA
Capital : Manokwari
Population 2015 : 872,000
Peak 2016 : 70.2 MW
Total installed capacity 2016 : 132 MW (Installed) 98.9 MW (Net)
Total additional capacity up to 2026 : 321.3MW
BPP PLN 2016 : Rp1,802 US¢13.54
85% BPP PLN 2016 : Rp1,531 US¢11.51
Figure 40 West Papua Province power plant development plan
Figure 41 Plan and potential of NRE in West Papua Province
50

Figure 42 The development of power plants (fossils and NRE) in the planning stage in West Papua Province
B. BPP System Isolated WEST PAPUA
1 Kaimana Gas/MG PLN 10.0

2018
2 Sorong Gas/MG PLN 30.0

2018
3 Sorong Gas/MG PLN 20.0

2019
4 Bintuni MG PLN 10.0

2018
5 Raja
Ampat MG PLN 10.0

2018
6 Manokwari
2 MG PLN 20.0

2019
7 Fak-‐Fak MG PLN 10.0

2020
8 Kaimana
2 MG PLN 10.0

2020
9 Sorong

2021/22
10 Sorong

2025
11 Manokwari
3 MG Unallocated 20.0

2024
TOTAL 290.0

1 Waigo Minihydro PLN 1.3

2022
TOTAL 1.3

FOSSIL
AND
NRE
POWER
PLANT
DEVELOPMENT
PLANS
51

Figure 44 System isolated Papua and West Papua Provinces (2)
Figure 45 System isolated Papua and West Papua Provinces (3)
52

Figure 46 Development plan of North Sulawesi power plant
8. NORTH SULAWESI
Capital : Manado
Population 2015 : 2,412,000
Peak 2016 : 274 MW
Total installed capacity 2016 : 483 MW (Installed) 352 MW (Net)
Total additional capacity up to 2026 : 1,095.4MW
BPP PLN 2016 : Rp1,696 US¢12.75
85% BPP PLN 2016 : Rp1,441 US¢10.84
Figure 47 Plan and potential of NRE in North Sulawesi Province
53

Table 9 The development of power plants (fossils and NRE) in the planning stage in North Sulawesi Province
1 Minahasa Gas/MG PLN 150.0

2018
2 Tahuna MG PLN 10.0

2018
3 Sulut
1 Steam
Coal PLN 100.0

2019

2020

2024
6 Sulbagut
1 SG Unallocated 150.0

2023
7 Sulbagut
2 Steam

2025/26
TOTAL 630.0

1 Sawangan Hydro PLN 12.0

2020
2 Kotamobagu
I
(FTP

2025
3 Kotamobagu
II
(FTP

2025
4 Kotamobagu
III
(FTP

2025
5 Kotamobagu
IV
(FTP

2025
6 Kilotiga Microhydro IPP 0.6

2019
7 Sulut Solar IPP 20.0

2019
8 Tincep
1 Minihydro IPP 0.4

2019
9 Tincep
4 Minihydro IPP 0.4

2019
10 Lahendong
Small
Scale
1 Geothermal IPP 5.0

2019
11 Lahendong

2020
12 Totabuan
1 Minihydro IPP 5.0

2021
13 Poigar
2 Hydro IPP 30.0

2021
14 Tincep
2 Minihydro IPP 1.1

2021
15 Tincep
3 Minihydro IPP 2.2

2021
16 Lahendong

2021
17 Lahendong
Small
Scale

2021
18 Pidung Minihydro IPP 2.0

2022
19 Ranowangko Minihydro IPP 2.2

2022
TOTAL 205.9

FOSSIL
AND
NRE
POWER
PLANT
DEVELOPMENT
PLANS
54

B. BPP System Isolated NORTH SULAWESI
Figure 48 BPP System isolated North Sulawesi Province
55

9. CENTRAL SULAWESI
Capital : Palu
Population 2015 : 2,877,000
Peak 2016 : 229 MW
BPP PLN 2016 : Rp1,696 US¢12.75
85% BPP PLN 2016 : Rp1,441 US¢10.84
Figure 49 Development plan of Central Sulawesi Province power plant
Figure 50 Plan and potential of NRE in Central Sulawesi Province
56

Table 10 The development of power plants (fossils and NRE) is still in the planning stage in Central Sulawesi Province
B. BPP System Isolated CENTRAL SULAWESI
Figure 51 BPP System isolated North Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, and Gorontalo Provinces
1 MPP
Sulteng Gas/MG PLN 60.0

2018
2 Palu
3 Steam
Coal PLN 100.0

2019
3 Luwuk SG PLN 150.0

2020
4 Tolitoli Steam
Coal PLN 50.0

2022
TOTAL 360.0

1 Poso
1 Hydro IPP 70.0

2018
2 Bambalo
2 Minihydro IPP 1.8

2019
3 Dako Minihydro IPP 1.4

2019
4 Sampaga Minihydro IPP 1.2

2019
5 Koro
Kabalo Minihydro IPP 2.2

2020
6 Lobu Minihydro IPP 5.0

2021
7 Banasu Minihydro IPP 9.0

2021
8 Batu
Nobota Minihydro IPP 5.0

2021
9 Kilo Minihydro IPP 10.0

2021
10 Paddumpu Minihydro IPP 5.0

2021
11 Yaentu Minihydro IPP 10.0

2021
12 Ponju Minihydro IPP 3.0

2021
13 Bengkoli Minihydro IPP 2.5

2021
14 Bongkasoa Minihydro IPP 1.4

2022
15 Pono Minihydro IPP 6.0

2022
16 Bongka
Hydro IPP 280.0

2024/25
17 Marana
(FTP
2) Geothermal Unallocated 20.0

2025
18 Bora
Pulu
(FTP
2) Geothermal Unallocated 40.0

2025
TOTAL 473.5

FOSSIL
AND
NRE
POWER
PLANT
DEVELOPMENT
PLANS
57

10. GORONTALO
Capital : Gorontalo
Population 2015 : 1,133,000
Peak 2016 : 83.5 MW
Total installed capacity 2016 : 176 MW (Installed) 149.8 MW (Net)
BPP PLN 2016 : Rp1,696 US¢12.75
85% BPP PLN 2016 : Rp1,441 US¢10.84
Figure 52 Gorontalo Province power plant development plan
Figure 53 Plan and potential of NRE in Gorontalo Province
58

Investment Opportunity, Renewable Power Generation in Indonesia 2017

Investment Opportunity, Renewable Power Generation in Indonesia 2017

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