Disaster management

1. WMO’S ROLE IN DISASTER MITIGATION
CHALLENGES AS WE PREPARE FOR WORLD CONFERENCE ON
NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Geneva, Switzerland
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2. El Niño
Weather, water and climate-related
hazards
Hail&Lightning
Avalanches
Flash floods
Tornadoes
Wildland fires
& haze
Hot & cold spells
Heavy precipitations
(rain or snow)
Droughts
Storm surges
Storm (winds)
River basin flooding
Mud & landslides
Ice Storms
Tropical cyclones
Dust storms
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3. Regional distribution of natural disasters
(1993-2002)
Africa
21%
Americas
20%
Asia
42%
Europe
14%
Oceania
3%
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4. Distribution of people killed
(1993-2002)
High human
development
2%
Medium
human
development
32%
Low human
development
66%
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5. Hydro-meteorological and geophysical
disasters (1993-2002)
0 20 40 60 80 100
1
2
3
1- Damage (US$billion) 2- Number affected
3- Number killed
Hydrometeorological disasters Geophysical disasters
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6. Evolution of natural disasters and their
impacts
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1970s 1980s 1990s
Nb of reported
disasters
Nb reported killed
(thousands)
Nb reported affected
(millions)
Damage (billions US$)
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7. Climate change - Third IPCC assessment
report - impacts
In 2100 half of the world population will be under
water stress
Subtropical zones: Less precipitations; increased
desertification
Tropical zones: Increased health risks
High latitudes: permafrost decrease
Coastal zones: coastal erosion; storm surges; salt water
intrusions
Cost of global warming in 2050: 300 billion US Dollars
per year (Munich Re)
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8. Role of WMO in disaster management
Response
Recovery
Mitigation
Prevention
Preparedness
Risk identification
Knowledge management
Risk management
applications (agriculture,
water resources, etc)
Preparedness and
emergency management
Governance support
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9. Risk Identification
Monitoring
Early warnings for weather water or climate
related disasters
Adaptation measures
Vulnerability assessment and Hazard analysis
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10. Risk Identification: monitoring (1)
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11. Risk Identification: monitoring (2)
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12. Risk Identification: monitoring (3)
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13. Risk Identification: monitoring (4)
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14. Risk Identification: monitoring (5)
900 Argo floats in operation by mid-2003. By 2005, some 3 000
floats are planned.
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15. Risk Identification: Early warnings (1)
Ensemble Pred.
tools
120
h
96 h 72 h 48 h 24 h
Global
models
Limited Area
models
Nowcasting tools
Global models
L.A. models
EPS, Probabilities
Warnings
Activities
Nowcasting
Time dependency of forecast methods used for the preparation and
maintenance of warnings at DWD (From Thomas Shuman –DWD)
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16. GLOBAL DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Risk Identification: Early warnings (2)
Strike probability
(within 65 nm) of
Typhoon Rusa over
the next 120 hours.
Starting time of the
forecast is 27
August 2002 12
UTC.
Full dots give the
observed position
over the period 27
August to
1 September 2002
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17. Risk Identification: Early warnings (3)
Observational data are needed for the study of
climate variability and issue of warnings for climate-
related disasters - issued from weeks to seasons in
advance if adequate climate predictions are
available
Regular assessments and authoritative statements on
climate variability
Climate alert system for early warnings on pending
significant climate anomalies
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18. Risk Identification: Early warnings (4)
WMO’s World Climate Programme (WCP) is
monitoring and issuing El Niño outlooks, which alerts
governments to prepare to El Niño related anomalies
Regional Climate Outlook – important development for
evaluation of seasonal forecasts
Forums have become regular meetings in some regions,
where NMHSs meet to discuss global climate model
outputs and develop consensus seasonal forecasts for
regional and local use
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19. Risk Identification: Adaptation measures
Adaptation is a response measure promoted by the
UNFCC and early warning systems are one way of
reducing vulnerability and enhancing adaptive capacity
to weather events and climate change.
Enhanced collaboration is needed between the climate
and disaster reduction communities to the
implementation of measures as environmental planning,
data and information pooling, improved observation
systems, best practices exchange, strengthened technical
cooperation, and close collaboration with policy makers.
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20. Risk Identification: Vulnerability
assessment
Linkage between climate and disaster databases to assess
different vulnerabilities.
A pilot project is on going in Chile linking climate with
flood disaster databases with the support of WMO
through the World Climate Programme as part of the
activities of IATF working Groups on Climate and
Disasters and on Risk, Vulnerability and Impact
Assessment
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21. Risk Identification: Hazard analysis
Improved hazard analysis and hazard mapping are
needed to be extended to all countries as a tool for risk
communication among policy makers and communities.
Hazard maps are essential to prepare evacuation
efficiently and to allow authorities to adjust land use
and city planning.
WMO will continue to assist NMHSs in developing and
managing climate databases, through the Data Rescue
and Climate Database Management Projects.
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22. Knowledge Management (1)
Many hazards associated with high-impact weather involve
smaller-scale atmospheric phenomena, which exhibit still
low predictive skills (e.g., localized heavy precipitation)
Further improvements in the prediction of high-impact
weather and in the full utilization of forecast information
WMO’s World Weather Research Programme
- support to cooperative international research projects
and experiments (e.g. THORPEX)
- translate research findings into policy and operational
actions for high impact weather phenomena
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23. Knowledge Management (2)
User education and awareness are essential:
to increase weather literacy and interest in meteorological
topics
to ensure that warnings and forecasts provided by the
NMHSs are understood by the intended users
to build up a high level of awareness of hazards and
preparedness
to enable emergency management authorities to make well-
informed decisions
WMO’s Public Weather Services Programme contributes to this
effort for the interpretation of forecasts and warnings
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24. Risk Management Applications (1)
The WMO’s Technical Commission for Hydrology conducts
a project on “Risk Management”
Aim to assist NHSs in implementing risk management
practices
Scope to encompasses the application of a set of guidelines
and best practice for use byNHSs on risk management
Is a demonstration project which will initially focus on
Africa and Asia
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25. Risk Management Applications (2)
The Associated Programme on Flood Management
Promotes the concept of Integrated Flood Management
across sectors
Collect case studies and conducts pilot projects to
mitigate flood-related disasters and to develop
community approaches to flood
management.
Application of a set of guidelines and best practice
for use by NHSs for existing and planned activities
in flood management
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26. Risk Management Applications (3)
WMO’s Agricultural Meteorology Programme
Provides guidance on the development of support systems
for sustainable land management and agro-climatic zoning
with the active participation of the Commission for
Agricultural Meteorology.
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27. Preparedness and emergency management
Timely and accurate forecasts and warnings of natural
hazards coupled with adequate local preparedness planning
are fundamental requirements for disaster reduction
Optimal response to natural disasters requires effective
coordination and cooperation between responsible agencies,
institutions, officials, the media, political leaders and other
players at local, national and international levels
WMO will support the NMHSs to establish and enhance
partnerships between NMHSs and the national authorities
and organizations involved in the natural disaster reduction
activities to improve preparedness and emergency planning
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28. Governance Support
Legislation and adequate normative framework are
essential to implement risk management.
Political commitment is crucial to allocate the
necessary resources.
Contributions of NMHSs need to be integrated in
national disaster management plans.
WMO is supporting NMHSs to promote natural
disaster reduction and mitigation as national priority
action by the Governments.
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29. Disaster Prevention and Mitigation
Programme (1)
Fourteenth WMO Congress (May 2003)
Recognized the significant role WMO and NMHSs play in
international disaster reduction activities concerning
mitigation of, and preparedness for, natural disasters of
meteorological or hydrological origin
Decided to initiate a new WMO major programme on
Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (building on all
relevant WMO Programmes and activities) as a
crosscutting programme to enhance international
cooperation and collaboration in the field of natural
disaster activities
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30. Disaster Prevention and Mitigation
Programme (2)
To develop an effective and efficient mechanism to
provide, in an integrated fashion, the WMO response
to the requirements and needs of Members and
international community concerning disaster
reduction in light of related developments
To encourage and assist Members in
developing/enhancing NMHSs contribution to national
disaster preparedness programmes in a more fully
integrated manner, especially in coordination with
national civil defence/disaster coordination offices
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31. Disaster Prevention and Mitigation
Programme (3)
To ensure that activities and results of relevant
WMO Programmes are fully used in the process of
the WMO’s participation in the International
Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR)
To enhance WMO’s role and recognition as one of
the leading international organizations dealing with
disaster reduction, in particular through active
participation in high-level global fora and related
activities
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32. International Framework (1)
Natural disasters affect all countries, but
burden falls disproportionately on developing
countries
Support to natural disaster reduction is both
an issue of sustainable development and a
matter of environmental justice requiring
international solidarity
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33. International Framework (2)
ISDR succeeded IDNDR
Several significant Declarations, Agendas and
Conventions:
Millennium Declaration
UNFCCC (climate change)
UNCCD (desertification)
Freshwater Agenda
World Summit on Sustainable Development
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34. Conclusions (1)
Need for an integrated approach
National and regional levels
Role of National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services
Cooperation across disciplines and agencies
Links with academic community
International level
Between IGOs and NGOs concerned
Capacity building and transfer of technology
activities
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35. Conclusions (2)
Need for an integrated approach
In multiple domains
observations
communications
data processing (incl. NWP)
…
Accross disciplines
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