Comments ayesha siddiq General bajwa,Taliban ,USA, Afghanistan

1. Is Pakistan’s General Bajwa the new
Musharraf? His latest London visits
hold the answer
If Musharraf could understand, even after Kargil, that a comprehensive dialogue
could be had then so can Bajwa.
AYESHA SIDDIQA Updated: 2 July, 2019 10:25 am IST
COMMEMTS BY
MAJOR A.H
AMIN
(RETIRED IN
BOLD BLACK

2. YELLOW
HIGHLIGHTS
Pakistan Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa | File photo: Flickr

3. Pakistan’s army chief, General Qamar Bajwa
was recently in London to meet his counterpart and many other
bigwigs of the security establishment of the UK ostensibly to discuss
issues of strategic cooperation. However, the visit – his second in nine
months – was more than the usual tête-à-tête.
FIRST GEN BAJWA WAS IN LONDON BECAUSE IT WAS
SIMPLER TO GO TO THE UK AND NOT AROUSE TOO
MUCH SPECULATION INTERNATIONALLY BUT ABOVE
ALL IN PAKISTAN.
If anything, there were fourobjectives of the tour: find a via-media to
improve relations with the US that would relieve the immediate
financial pressure on Pakistan; reduce pressure of poor India-Pakistan
relations from the latter; recruit the British government to play the
role of a strategic intermediary, and use London as platform to
convince the international community that the general could do the
job of turning Pakistan around, especially as far as delivering Taliban
to the American negotiation table and cleaning the country of jihadis,
and peace with India was concerned.
DON’T AGREE WITH THE AUTHOR HERE (1) BRITISH
GOVERNMENT HAS EXTREMELY LIMITED LEVERAGE
STRUCK WITH ITS BREXIT FAUX PAS (2) USA WOULD
NOT REDUCE FINANCIAL PRESSURE ON PAKISTAN AS
THIS WOULD BE FUNDAMENTALLY AGAINST THE
STRATEGY THAT IT IS PURSUING (3) DELIVERING
TALIBAN TO NEGOTIATING TABLE IS ALSO A FAR
FETCHED ASSERTION--- ALL THE US PRESIDENT WANTS

4. IS TO DO THE PEACE MAKING TILL US ELECTIONS AND
ONCE TRUMP WINS THE 2020 ELECTIONS (A)
AFGHANISTAN WILL BE THROWN UNDER THE BUS (B) A
NEW CIVIL WAR WOULD START IN AFGHANISTAN (C)
AFGHANISTAN WILL BE DIVIDE IN NORTH AND SOUTH
WITH SOUTH BEING A PAKISTANI VASSAL UNDER
TALIBAN AND NORTH BEING A US VASSAL WITH US
BASES
CLEANING PAKISTAN OF JIHADIS IS ALSO
UNACHIEVABLE FOR GENERAL BAJWA AS IT IS TOO
STRATEGIC A REVERSAL—THIS WOULD TAKE DECADES
AND WOULD NOT STAND THE GEOPOLITICAL
PRESSURES OF TIME. BAJWA CANNOT DO IT AS THERE
ARE LIMITS EVEN TO PAKISTAN ARMY CHIEFS POWERS
After all, even after Kargil, Pervez Musharraf understood that a
comprehensive dialogue could be had then, why can’t Bajwa do the
same? The difference is that Musharraf had the longevity of tenure on
his side, Bajwa doesn’t. London is abuzz with rumours of a year’s
extension, which may not be enough to turn things around. A new
chief would come with his own ideas.
IT WONT BE EASY FOR IMRAN KHAN NOT TO GIVE
EXTENSION TO HIS BENEFACTOR AND AMERICANS
WOULD LIKE GENERAL BAJWA IN CHAIR AS LONG AS
AFGHANISTAN PEACE PROCESS WHICH MAY BE
INDEFINITE DOES NOT CONCLUDE—SO GEOPOLITICS AS
WELL AS PAKISTANS INTERNAL DYNAMICS MAKE
GENERAL BAJWAS EXTENSION A WIN WIN CASE

5. Also read: Imran Khan backers fear return to Musharraf era in
Pakistan: We were sold a fake dream
While private conversations were held with the British national
security adviser and Prime MinisterTheresa May’s special
representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, the army chief also
addressed a larger audience of over a hundred people in an off-the-
record meeting at the International Institute for Strategic Studies
(IISS).
IISS HAS A LIMITED GEOPOLITICAL VALUE AND IS OF NO
CONSEQUENCE --- MUCH OF AFGHANISTANS FUTURE
DEVELOPMENTS ARE EVEN BEYOND BAJWA OR ISIs
PROJECTIONS- AYESHA SIDDIQA IS IN HABIT OF
MAKING FAR FETCHED CLAIMS
General Bajwa had good news for his audience – the army was
committed to putting an end to all militants, a target that would be
better achieved once the newly elected (popularly known as
“selected”) Imran Khan government settled down in its job.
ANOTHER UTOPIAN CLAIM BY AYESHA SIDDIQA—THE
INDO PAK MUSLIM LEADERS HAVE USED ISLAM AS A
GALVANISING TOOL RIGHT FROM 1858 AND
ABANDONING IT WOULD NO NO MEAN TASK EVEN FOR
BAJWA. AND HOW CAN IMRAN KHANS GOVERNMENT BE
ALLOWED TO SETTLE DOWN IN ITS JOB BY THE USA
BECAUSE STRATEGIC CHAOS IN PAKISTAN IS THE MOST
IMPORTANT ULTERIOR AIM OF US STRATEGY-THEY
WANT REVENGE FOR BEUNG TAKEN FOR A RIDE IN
AFGHANISTAN ON PART OF THE PAKISTANI STATE—
FREE FALL OF PAKISTANI RUPEE IS A PART OF THIS US

6. STRATEGY OF CHATISEMENT AND STRATEGIC ARM
TWISTING-THE PAKISTANI STATE IS LIKE A MAN
HOLDING TWO YEARS OF A WOLF KNOWN AS ISLAMIC
MILITANCY AND DOES NOT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
KILL THE WOLF AND ALSO CANNOT AFFORD TO LEAVE
ITS EARS---THIS IS GENERAL BAJWAS DILEMMA IN A
RUMOUR MONGERING STATE WITH RUMOURS ALWAYS
RIFE ABOUT GENERAL BAJWAS RELIGIOUS BELIEFS
The general also expressed his intention to talk peace with India for
which, he claimed he was not in a hurry but was willing to let the Modi
government come around to the idea of peace at its own pace. The
interestingpart of the entire show was that he had the British believe
that he means business just like Pervez Musharraf did. It could be that
faced with the grim prospects of Brexit, the British bureaucracy feels it
has a chance to create a legacy of brokering peace between India and
Pakistan.
PEACE BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN IS NOT LIKE
CROSSING A FIELD MEASURING 25 ACRES SQUARE !
BRITAIN CANNOT DEAL WITH ITS IMMEDIATE ISSUES
LIKE BREXIT BUT OUR UTOPIAN AYESHA SIDDIQA
MAKES FAR FETCHED CLAIMS ABOUT BRITAINS
POTENTIAL OF BROKERING AN INDIA PAKISTAN PEACE
WHICH IS IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AND
WHY SHOULD INDIA MAKE PEACE WITH PAKISTAN
WHEN PAKISTAN IS SO PRECARIOUSLY ON THE BRINK
OF A STRATEGIC CRISIS – BOTH INTERNAL AS WELL AS
EXTERNAL--- PAKISTANS CENTRAL ISSUE IS TAX
EVASION AND PAKISTANI STATE DOES NOT HAVE THE
MUSCLE TO DO TAX COLLECTION --- NOTE THAT THE
GREAT REBELLION OF 1857 HAD A DEEP CONNECTION
WITH BRITISH EAST INDIA COMPANYS ATTACKS ON

7. FEUDAL PRIVILEGES--- TO TAX PAKISTAN IS AN
IMPOSSIBLE JOB AND IF PAKISTANI STATE DOES NOT
TAX PAKISTAN IT WOULD SLIDE INTO CHAOS AND FACE
A MAKOR BREAKDOWN--- AT THIS STAGE IN TIME WHY
WOULD INDIA GIVE PAKISTAN ANY RESPITE OR BREAK ?
The emerging understanding in London is that financial pressures
may have awoken the army leadership to the need to change its
attitude. Somethinghas certainly happened in speeding up the Afghan
peace process; Ashraf Ghani’s visit to Islamabad, Pakistan government
facilitating a round of talks between Kabul and Taliban at the hill
resort in Murree, and increased possibility of an Imran Khan-Donald
Trump meeting in July this year.
DONALD TRUMPS MAIN AIM IS WINNING 2020
ELECTIONS SO HUMOURING IMRAN KHAN IS PART OF
HIS GAME PLAN LIKE DALLYING WITH NORTH KOREAN
DICTATOR. TALKS WITH TALIBAN WOULD ONLY DELAY
AFGHAN CIVIL WAR BY FEW MONTHS BUT IS NOT AN
ACHIEVABLE SOLUTION EVEN FOR SO CALLED DIVINE
PLAYERS LIKE GEN BAJWA.SEEN IN THIS CONTEXT
ASHRAF GHANIS VISIT WOULD ALSO BE A NON
STARTER.
PAKISTAN ARMY LEADERSHIP AFTER DECADES OF
SLEEPING WITH ISLAMISTS CANNOT JUST JUMP OUT OF
THE GREEN BED AND FIND A NEW SLEEPING PARTNER
LIKE TRUMP ? ITS NOT AS SIMPLE AS THAT MISS
AYESHA ?
So, will Bajwa apply his new perspective on India as well? Post-
London, Pakistan’s army chief spoke at his military university about
the need for regional connectivity.

8. There are two issues here – timing and intent.
Also read: New ISI chief Faiz Hameed a manipulator picked by army
chief Bajwa to be his master’s voice
The possibility of a shift in attitude depends on how consistent and
hard the pressure from outside is. Bringing about a fundamental shift
in thinkingtowards New Delhi at a time when India is changing itself
to become more ideological means Pakistan will need greater clarity
about its future goals and how it wants to build itself regionally. It will
also require consensus amongst domesticstakeholders. What we have
learnt from the Musharraf episode in the past is that while Delhi
couldn’t reach out to the Pakistani general on time, there was also a
lack of consensus in Pakistan regarding the outcome. It was after
Musharraf left that his generals started to speak about how they did
not see eye-to-eye with his Kashmir formula.
Selling the idea of peace-with-India inside the military’s corridors is
not easy – back then or now. For one, it is a new India where minority
relations will continue to raise concerns. Moreover, given the
consistent propaganda about this new India in Pakistan, where every
dissenting voice is viewed as funded by RAW against Pakistan’s
interests, the general’s claim to be open about relations with India is
nothing but fallacy. While General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani was popular
for supporting trade with India, he left no stone unturned to ensure
that it wouldn’t happen. One of the reasons for pushing
Nawaz Sharif out was the army’s concern that the prime minister
would encourage trade and normalisation of relations with
neighbours. The Europeans are certainly unable to understand the
logic but the fact is that any evidence of change in the attitude of
Pakistan’s army will start with how they treat domestic stakeholders.

9. Despite feelinghopeful, the British at least understand that improving
ties will also call for some progress on the Kashmir issue. The
perception is that since the present movement in Kashmir is
operationally indigenous, the Indians could be convinced to return to
the Musharraf Kashmir formulain return for an end to Pakistan’s
jihad policy. General Bajwa, it is believed, would take action against
the jihadis to be verified by a third party. For instance, the CIA or MI6
will verify a rumourof JeM’s Masood Azhar getting injured or killed.
Of course, the underlying assumption is that western intelligence
capacity has increased from the days when they could not find Osama
bin Laden in Abbottabad. It took a Pakistan army officer, who now
lives comfortably in California, to walk into the US embassy and spill
the beans.
FAR FETCHED CLAIMS AS OBL WAS NEVER THE
CENTRAL PLAYER--- THE CENTRAL PLAYER WAS
ALWAYS THE PAKISTANI STATE, SO NOTHING HAS
CHANGED --- OBL WAS A PAWN SOLD LIKE AN
OVERGROWN OLD LABRADOR BY THE PAKISTANI STATE
TO OBAMA SO THAT OBAMA MAY WIN THE 2012
ELECTIONS WHICH HE DID – AYESHA SIDDIQA IS IN
HABIT OF MAKING EXTREMELY FAR FETCHED
STATEMENTS.
THE US INTELLIGENCE EXPERIENCED ITS GREATEST
STRATEGIC INTEL FAILURE IN AFGHANISTAN
WHEN GENERAL MUSHARRAF COMPLETELY
FOOLED THE AMERICANS IN SECRETLY
SUPPORTING THE AFGHAN TALIBAN—THIS IS A
TRAUMA THE US CIA CAN NEVER OVERCOME--- THE
FRUSTRATION AND ANGER AT BEING TOTALLY
DUPED.

10. A third party verification of this kind is a complex idea especially when
all voices inside are being silenced. The fact that General Bajwa lost
his cool at the mention of the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) is
not just because he genuinely thinks, as he claimed in his response,
that PTM is an extension of the TTP (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan) or
that it is a Western/Afghan conspiracy, but because the movement
exposes the lack of progress on the Taliban. The British may consider
the Pakistani voices and civil society irrelevant but the Indians would
ignore it at their own peril.
THE PAKISTANI STATE HAD SUCCESSFULLY USED
PASHTUNS AS STRATEGIC PAWNS BUT THIS HAS BEEN
NOW PUT TO SEVERE STRAIN BECAUSE OF GENERAL
MUSHARRAFS WAZIRISTAN DECEPTION AND THE
RESULTANT FATA WARS WHICH HAVE NOT ENDED BY
ANY DEFINITION- FATA WARS WOULD OUTLAST EVEN
GENERAL BAJWA EVEN IF HE GETS TWO MORE THREE
YEAR EXTENSIONS.
It is not that General Bajwa doesn’t know that changing attitude
regarding India is not a decade-long project, at least. His hurry to start
talks as demonstrated by keenness to open up the Kartarpur corridor
is tactical, not strategic.
Also read: What Pakistani generals want from PM Imran Khan –
career advancement
Unlike Musharraf,Bajwa is not out there to create a legacy for himself
but to buy time for the army to get back on its feet vis-à-vis the US. He
understands that improvement of the Pakistan-US bilateral relations
partly depends on Washington not seeing Islamabad from Delhi’s lens.

11. AGAIN FAR FETCHED – PAKISTAN CANNOT AFFORD TO
REVERSE THE STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP BEGUN WITH
CHINA AND THE WEST HAS NOT MUCH TO OFFER TO
PAKISTAN--- THE WEST AS A MATTER OF FACT WANTS
THE PAKISTANI STATE TO COLLAPSE AND WANTS TO
DESTROY PAKISTAN LIKE IRAQ OR LIBYA OR SYRIA—
ONLY THE PAKISTANI NUCLEAR STRATEGIC DETERRENT
IS STOPPING THE WEST—SO GENERAL BAJWA
ACHIEVING ANY UNDERSTANDING WITH WEST IS AN
IMPOSSIBLE POSSIBILITY.
Bajwa also seems willing to play the long game of engagement with the
US, which is why in London he insisted that Pakistan was more
naturally inclined towards the West than China. He had said the same
even during his visit of October 2018. The fact that Pakistan’s
intelligence is allowing media to print stories about the sorry state of
Pakistani women in China or the fact that Islamabad is not signing off
its copper treasures to Beijing is not a strategic shift in relations but
signalling to the US. Improving ties with Washington, it is hoped,
could convince the world that while Rawalpindi is ready to change, it
is India that must mend its ways. China, on the other hand, has its fate
tied with Pakistan due to BRI.
THE USA IS NOT INTERESTED IN A LONG TERM
STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP WITH PAKISTAN SINCE IT
HAS ALREADY LOST THE STRATEGIC GAME IN
PAKISTAN. GENERAL BAJWA CANNOT REVERSE THE
STRATEGIC PROCESS IN MOTION OF PAKISTAN
BECOMING A CHINESE VASSAL—THIS PROCESS IS LIKE
MOVEMENT OF A CELSTIAL BODY WHICH A MEAN
MORTAL LIKE BAJWA CANNOT CHALLENGE.

12. General Bajwa is certainly happy to play the intense game of nerves.
Question is if he can take his men along, will Delhi play its own game,
or Donald Trump’s, in case Bajwa can stay on for another year?
THE SCENE IS SET FOR CHAOS AND THINGS WILL
NORMALISE ONLY AFTER THE FLOOD OF HISTORY
DESTROYS ALL DAMS AND DYKES BUILT BY THE
PAKISTANI STATE . ONCE THIS HAPPENS THE RIVERS OF
HISTORY IN HIGH FLOOD WOULD SETTLE DOWN. NO
DOUBT PAKISTAN IS FACING A GRAND STRATEGIC
HISTORIC CRISIS AND THE PROBLEM WITH BAJWA AND
TRUMP IS THAT THEY THINK THAT THEY ARE
INFALLIBLE. BOTH WILL COME TO STRATEGIC GRIEF.
The author is research associate at the School of Oriental and African
Studies, London and author of Military Inc. Views are personal.
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