BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY i Economics of Adaptation to Climate ChangeBANGL ADESH
ii E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G EEACC Publications and Reports1. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Synthesis Report2. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Social Synthesis Report3. The Cost to Developing Countries of Adapting to Climate Change: New Methods and EstimatesCountry Case Studies:1. Bangladesh: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change2. Bolivia: Adaptation to Climate Change: Vulnerability Assessment and Economic Aspects3. Ethiopia : Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change4. Ghana: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change5. Mozambique: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change6. Samoa: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change7. Vietnam: Economics of Adaptation to Climate ChangeDiscussion Papers:1. Economics of Adaptation to Extreme Weather Events in Developing Countries2. The Costs of Adapting to Climate Change for Infrastructure3. Adaptation of Forests to Climate Change4. Costs of Agriculture Adaptation to Climate Change5. Cost of Adapting Fisheries to Climate Change6. Costs of Adaptation Related to Industrial and Municipal Water Supply and Riverine Flood Protection7. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change-Ecosystem Services8. Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Global Hydrology and Water Availability9. Climate Change Scenarios and Climate Data10. Economics of Coastal Zone Adaptation to Climate Change11. Costs of Adapting to Climate Change for Human Health in Developing Countries12. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Bangladesh13. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Bolivia14. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia15. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ghana16. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Mozambique17. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Vietnam18. Participatory Scenario Development Approaches for Identifying Pro-Poor Adaptation Options19. Participatory Scenario Development Approaches for Pro-Poor Adaptation: Capacity Development Manual
BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY iEconomics of Adaptationto Climate ChangeBANG L ADESH Ministry of Foreign Affairs Government of the Netherlands
BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY iiiContentsAcronyms viiAcknowledgments ixExecutive Summary xiClimate hazards: a risk to achieving development objectives xiAdaptation essential for development xiiObjectives and scope of study xiiiResults xvLessons and recommendations xx1 Introduction 1Motivation and context for the EACC study 1Context for the Bangladesh case study 1Climate change and Bangladesh 4Scope of this report 42 Existing Climate Variability and Climate Change 7Existing climate variability 7Climate change 103 Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surges 17Historical vulnerability to tropical cyclones and storm surges 18Adaptation measures currently in place 19Estimating potential damage and adaptation cost 25Implications for Adaptation Strategy 424 Inland Flooding 47Historical Vulnerability of Inland Flooding 47Estimating adaptation cost 50Implications for adaptation strategy 63
iv E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E5 Agriculture and Food Security 67Background 67Projected future climatic conditions 68Direct impacts on agriculture 69Economy-wide impacts and responses 73Implications for adaptation strategy 756 Local Perspectives on Adaptation 79Background 79Overview of hotspots 79Vulnerability to Climate Change 82Adaptation practices 83Preferred Adaptation Options 85Implications for adaptation strategy 867 Limitations of the Study 898 Summary of Findings 93References 100Annexes (available on line at www.worldbank.org/eacc)Annex 1. Major cyclones crossing Bangladesh coast (1960–2009) Annex 2. Tracks for major cyclones that crossed the Bangladesh coast, 1960–2009 Annex 3. Cyclone Tracks used to simulate inundation risk under the Climate Change Scenario Annex 4. Description of Cyclone and Bay of Bengal Model Annex 5. Polders Likely to be overtopped in the Baseline and Climate Change Scenarios Annex 6. Estimated cost to prevent overtopping of embankments by 2050 Annex 7. Earthwork Computation with an illustrative Example Annex 8. Determining additional vents required to reduce drainage congestion in coastal polders Annex 9. Floods in Bangladesh Annex 10. Spatial Vulnerability of Bangladesh to various types of floods Annex 11. Classification of floods in Bangladesh Annex 12. Flood-affected areas in Bangladesh, 1954–2007 Annex 13. Chronology of above normal floods in Bangladesh Annex 14. Damages from major floods in Bangladesh Annex 15. Models used for flood hydrology Annex 16. Social component methodology
BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY vTablesTable ES.1 Scope of study in the context of programs and activities included in the xiv Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan Table ES.2 Cost of adapting to tropical cyclones and storm surges by 2050 ($ millions) xviTable ES.3 Total adaption cost for inland flooding by 2050 ($ millions) xviiTable 2.1 Peak discharge and timing during extreme flood years 8Table 2.2 Water level trends at different stations along the coastline 9Table 2.3 Estimated average change (%) in discharge 12Table 2.4 Sea level rise impacts on flood land types 15Table 3.1 Typical storm surge characteristics for cyclones in Bangladesh 19Table 3.2 Economic indicators Bangladesh: Current and 2050 25Table 3.3 Potential Inundation Risk Exposure Area (sq km) 29Table 3.4 Population exposed to inundation risk (million) 29Table 3.5 Road exposed to inundation risk (km) 29Table 3.6 Area affected in a single cyclone with a 10-year return period (sq km) 31Table 3.7 Population affected in a single cyclone with a 10-year return period (millions) 31Table 3.8 Roads affected in a single cyclone with a 10-year return period (km) 31Table 3.9 Damages and losses during a single Super cyclonic storm by economic sector 32Table 3.10 Cropped area exposed to inundation risk in the baseline and 34 climate change scenarios (ha) Table 3.11 Damages and losses from Cyclone Sidr (2007) by economic sector 37Table 3.12 Additional damages and losses due to climate change in 2050 37Table 3.13 Estimated cost for height enhancement of coastal polders ($ millions) 40Table 3.14 Cost to increase geographic precision of cyclone and surge warnings 43Table 3.15 Cost of adapting to climate change by 2050 ($ millions) 43Table 3.16 Sequencing of adaption options for tropical cyclones/storm surges 44Table 4.1 Flood classification in Bangladesh 48Table 4.2 Impacts and losses for recent exceptional or catastrophic floods 48Table 4.3 Growth trends in total GDP and agricultural GDP in relation to major flood events 51Table 4.4 Flood land classes (based on 24 hour duration inundation) 54Table 4.5 Rural Population Exposed to Inundation risk 54Table 4.6 Rural population density by flood land class (people per sq km) 55Table 4.7 Areas with changes in inundation depth due to climate change 56Table 4.8 Length of road by type at additional inundation risk from climate change in 2050 (km) 58Table 4.9 Adaptation cost for roads by type of road (Tk millions) 59Table 4.10 Railway track at risk of additional inundation due to climate change by 2050 (km) 59Table 4.11 Cost per kilometer to raise different railway tracks upto 0.5 meters ($/km) 60Table 4.12 Cost of earthwork ($ per km) by type of rail track and inundation depth (m) 60Table 4.13 Adaptation cost for railways ($ millions) 60Table 4.14 Embankments exposed to additional inundation risk due to climate change (km) 60Table 4.15 Itemized cost for raising embankments ($ millions) 61Table 4.16 Total adaption cost for inland flooding ($ millions) 64Table 6.1 Location of eight hotspots selected for based of hazard 81
vi E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G EFiguresFigure 1.1 Poverty and climate hazards 3Figure 2.1 Annual and seasonal (mm) precipitation averaged across meteorological stations by year 8Figure 2.2 Monthly, annual, and seasonal temperature changes 10Figure 2.3 Monthly, annual, and seasonal precipitation changes 10Figure 2.4 Total change in national flooded area for 2050 in the A2 and B1 scenarios 13Figure 3.1 Location of coastal polders in Bangladesh 20Figure 3.2 Location of cyclone shelters in coastal areas 23Figure 3.3 Population density in coastal areas in relation to areas of inundation risk 24Figure 3.4 Inundation risk exposure map—baseline scenario 27Figure 3.5 Inundation risk exposure map—climate change scenario 28Figure 3.6 Population under povery in relation to inundation risk 30Figure 3.7 Location of overtopped polders 38Figure 4.1 Extent of above-normal flooding in Bangladesh, 1950–2009 49Figure 4.2 Growth trends in total GDP and agricultural GDP in relation to major flood events 49Figure 4.3 Flood map – 24 Hour Duration Flood (baseline scenario) 52Figure 4.4 Flood map – 24 Hour Duration Flood (climate change scenario) 53Figure 4.5 Change in inhundation depth due to climate change 56Figure 5.1 Percentage change in national potential production due to temperature, precipitation, and CO2 70Figure 5.2 Percentage change in national potential production from flood damages only 71Figure 5.3 Percentage change in national potential production combined effects 72Figure 5.4 National rice production (Metric tons) 73Figure 5.5 Share of discounted GDP 73Figure 5.6 Net revenues and overall social preference of adaption measures 77Figure 6.1 Poverty and climate hazards 80Figure 6.2 Map of Bangladesh showing the eight hotspots 81Figure 6.3 Livelihood capital assets in eight hotspots 83
BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY viiAcronymsAR4 Fourth Assessment Report IWM Institute of Water ModelingBARI Bangladesh Agricultural Research MJO Madden-Julien OscillationBBS Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics MSL Mean sea levelBCAS Bangladesh Center for Advanced Studies NCA Net cultivable areaBMD Bangladesh Meteorology Department NGO Nongovernmental organizationBRRI Bangladesh Rice Research Institute RCM Regional climate modelCEGIS Center for Environmental and Geographic SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Information Services TAR Third Assessment ReportCGE Computable general equilibrium TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measurement MissionCO2 Carbon dioxide USGS United States Geologic SurveyDAE Department of Agriculture ExtensionDEM Digital elevation modelDSSAT Decision support system for UNITS OF MEASURE agro-technology transfer ac acresENSO El Nino-Southern Oscillation ha hectaresFAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the kg kilograms United Nations MT metric tonsFCDI Flood control and drainage infrastructureFFWC Flood Forecast and Warning CenterGBM Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna CURRENCY EQUIVALENTSGCM Global circulation (or climate) model US $1.00 = Tk 70.00GDP Gross domestic product (unless otherwise noted, all dollars are U.S. dollars)GOB Government of BangladeshGTOPO Global topography FISCAL YEAR (FY) July 1–June 30HYV High-yielding varietyIFPRI International Food Policy Research InstituteIMD Indian Meteorological DepartmentIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY ixAcknowledgmentsThe EACC study has been conducted as a partner- Fankhauser, Ravi Kanbur, and Joel Smith; andship among the World Bank, which led its technical to the study’s peer reviewers, Proditpo Gosh,aspects; the governments of the United Kingdom, Michael Steen Jacobsen, Ravi Kanbur, SanjayNetherlands, and Switzerland, which provided fund- Kathuria, Lalita Moorty, and David Wheeler.ing; and the participating case study countries. Numerous comments and suggestions were alsoThis report has been prepared by a team led by received from a large number of colleaguesKiran Pandey (Coordinator EACC country stud- during the course of the study, and the team isies) and comprising Susmita Dasgupta, Anne thankful to all of them. From the World Bank,Kuriakose, Khawaja M. Minnatullah, Winston they include Ian Noble, Apurva Sanghi, andYu, Nilufar Ahmad (former TTL), and Shakil Maria Sarraf. From outside the Bank, theyFerdausi (World Bank), Mainul Huq, Zahirul Huq include Gordon Hughes, Robert Schneider, JoelKhan, Manjur Murshed Zahid Ahmed, Ainun Smith and James Thurlow. The team is alsoNishat, Malik Fida Khan, Nandan Mukherjee, grateful for the timely feedback by participantsM. Asaduzzaman, S. M. Zulfiqar Ali, and Iqbal in three consultations in Dhaka—held in MayAlam Khan (consultants). The team was sup- 2009, November 2009, and May 2010—andported by Janet Bably Halder, Angie Harney, and two case study workshops in Washington in JuneHawanty Page. 2009 and January 2010.The study team is grateful for the general guid- We would also like to thank Robert Livernash forance of Sergio Margulis (TTL) of the Economics editorial services, Jim Cantrell for editorial inputof Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) proj- and production coordination, and Hugo Mansillaect. EACC includes a global track and six other for editorial and production support.country cases studies. The EACC team also ben-efited from ongoing interaction with the Environ- The study team is also grateful for the financialment Department’s management, particularly support provided by the partners of the EACCJames Warren Evans and Michelle de Nevers. study, the governments of the United King- dom, Netherlands, and Switzerland and theThe team is grateful to the advisory committee government of the Bangladesh for facilitatingfor the overall EACC study, comprising Sam the study.
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BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY xiExecutive SummaryClimate Hazards: rural poor in low-lying coastal areas are also dev-A Risk to Achieving astated by saline water intrusion into aquifers and groundwater and land submergence. In addition,Development Objectives seasonal droughts occasionally hit the northwest- ern region.Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerablecountries in the world to climate risks. Investments during the past 50 years haveTwo-thirds of the nation is less than 5 meters increased the resilience of Bangladesh toabove sea level and is susceptible to river and climate-related hazards. Since the sixties,rainwater flooding, particularly during the mon- the government of Bangladesh has invested $10soon. Due to its location at the tail end of the billion on structural (polders, cyclone shelters,delta formed by the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and cyclone-resistant housing) and non-structuralMeghna (GBM) rivers, the timing, location, and (early warning and awareness raising systems)extent of flooding depends on the precipitation in disaster reduction measures and enhanced itsthe entire GBM basin, not just on the 7 percent disaster preparedness systems. These investmentsof the basin that lies within the country. Nearly have significantly reduced damages and losses80 percent of the country’s annual precipita- from extreme climatic events over time, especiallytion occurs during the summer monsoon season, in terms of deaths and injuries. In addition, ruralwhen these rivers have a combined peak flow of households have adapted their farming systems180,000 m3/sec, the second highest in the world. to the “normal floods” that typically inundateOnce every three to five years, up to two-thirds about a quarter of the country by switching fromof Bangladesh is inundated by floods that cause low-yielding deepwater rice to high-yielding ricesubstantial damage to infrastructure, housing, crops. As a result, agricultural production hasagriculture, and livelihoods. Low-lying coastal actually risen over the past few decades. Risingareas are also at risk from tidal floods and severe incomes have also enabled an increasing propor-cyclones. On average once every three years, a tion of households to live in homes that are moresevere cyclone makes landfall on the Bangladesh resilient to cyclones, storm surges, and floods.coastline, either before or after the monsoon, cre-ating storm surges that are sometimes in excess Despite the increased resilience, climate-of 10 meters. Crops and the livelihoods of the related disasters continue to result in
xii E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G Elarge economic losses — reducing eco- originating in the Bay of Bengal are also expectednomic growth and slowing progress in to occur more frequently as a result of warmerreducing poverty. The 1998 monsoon flood ocean surface temperatures. Cyclone-inducedinundated over two- thirds of Bangladesh and storm surges are further exacerbated by a poten-resulted in damages and losses of over $2 billion, tial rise in sea level of over 27 cm by 2050. Mostor 4.8 percent of GDP. The losses were evenly GCMs predict precipitation increases of up to 20split among agriculture, infrastructure, and indus- percent during July, August, and September fortry/commerce. Similarly, Cyclone Sidr resulted in the GBM basin. As a result, median dischargesdamages and losses of $1.7 billion, or 2.6 percent in the three rivers during the summer months areof GDP in 2007. About half the losses were in the expected to increase between 6 and 18 percent byhousing sector, followed by agriculture and infra- the 2050s. Unlike temperature changes, the pre-structure. When averaged over the past decade, dicted changes in precipitation (and discharges)the direct annual costs from natural disasters to through 2050 are not distinct from the historicallythe national economy—in terms of damages to observed variability for all months and seasons,infrastructure and livelihoods and losses from reflecting the large variability in precipitationforgone production—have been estimated at 0.5 levels historically and even larger uncertainty inpercent to 1 percent of GDP. These statistics do future precipitation predictions.not include the significant loss of life that has alsooccurred during these events. These damagesand losses are geographically concentrated in Adaptation Essentialareas that also have higher concentrations of the for Developmentpoor, affecting them disproportionately. They livein thatch or tin houses that are more susceptibleto direct damages from cyclones, storm surges, The Bangladesh Climate Change Strat-and floods. Additionally, most rural households egy and Action Plan, adopted by the gov-depend on weather-sensitive sectors—agricul- ernment of Bangladesh in 2009, seeks toture, fisheries, and other natural resources—for guide activities and programs related totheir livelihood. Destruction of their assets and climate change in Bangladesh. Until thelivelihoods leaves the poor with a limited capacity past few years, climatic risks have been poorlyto recover. reflected in national policies and programs Ban- gladesh. The country launched the NationalA warmer and wetter future climate that Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) in 2005,goes beyond historical variations will which identified 15 priority activities that wereexacerbate the existing climatic risks subsequently updated to 45 programs in 2009.and increase vulnerability by increasing The first sectoral policy to explicitly include cli-the extent and depth of inundation from mate change impacts and actions—the Coastalflooding and storm surges and by reduc- Zone Policy—was adopted in 2005. Climateing arable land due to sea level rise and change has been a key concern in the redraft-salinity intrusion. The median predictions ing of the National Water Management Planfrom the general circulation models (GCMs) are (NWMP). Recognizing that a wide range of poli-for Bangladesh to be 1.5°C warmer and 4 percent cies have the potential to address climate-relatedwetter by the 2050s. The median temperature hazards and vulnerability, the government devel-predictions exceed the 90th percentile of his- oped and adopted through a consultative pro-torical variability across GCMs for July, August, cess the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategyand September by the 2030s. Severe cyclones and Action Plan 2009 to guide economywide
BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY xiiiefforts to adapt to climate change and to miti- Objectives and Scopegate greenhouse gases. It identifies three climatehazards—tropical cyclones/storm surges, inland of Studyflooding, and droughts. The strategy contains44 programs formulated around six themes— The objective of this study is to helpfood security/social protection/health, com- decision makers in Bangladesh to betterprehensive disaster management, infrastructure, understand and assess the risks posedresearch/knowledge management, mitigation/ by climate change and to better designlow carbon development, and capacity build- strategies to adapt to climate change. Theing/institutional strengthening (see Table ES.1). study takes as its starting point the BCCSAP. ItThirty-four programs listed under five themes builds upon and strengthens the analytical mod-are wholly or partially focused on adaptation. els and quantitative assessment tools alreadyThe BCCSAP includes an implementation time- in use in Bangladesh in support of the researchframe for the 44 identified programs and is esti- and knowledge management theme of BCCSAP.mated to require $500 million in the first two These tools are used to (a) examine the potentialyears and about $5 billion in the first five years for physical impacts of climate change; (b) assess thefull implementation. The government allocated associated damages and losses in key economic$100 million of its own resources in FY 2009–10 sectors, on vulnerable populations, and in theand has budgeted $100 million in FY2010–11 overall economy; (c) estimate spatially disaggre-toward actions contained in the strategy; it is gated costs of adaptation options that can reduceactively seeking additional resources to imple- these impacts; and (d) sequence the adaptationment the full strategy. actions over time.In a fiscally constrained environment, The scope of this study is more limitedsequencing of adaptation actions is a than the BCCSAP, so the reported costsnecessity, particularly given the large represent a lower bound on the total adap-uncertainties about the magnitude and tation costs in Bangladesh. As highlighted intiming of the added risks from climate Table ES.1, this study encompasses about 21 ofchange. The fundamental problem of policy the identified adaptation actions, of which 11 aremaking in the face of climate change is one of examined quantitatively as well. Some importantuncertainty with regard to climate outcomes. and likely expensive adaptation activities thatShifting resources toward more productive uses have not been included in this study are urbanand away from less productive ones in the context drainage, river training works, dredging andof uncertainty is already a principal aim of devel- desiltation, and protection of ecosystems.opment for a fiscally constrained government.Climate change makes this task more complex. The study was developed in four discreteUncertainty has important effects in any assess- and somewhat independent componentsment of the impacts of climate change and on with varying degrees of analytical depththe selection and ranking of adaptation actions. and quantification. When feasible, commonThese include prioritizing adaptation actions with assumptions and similar methodologies were usedmore certain outcomes with the greatest near- to increase comparability and cohesion amongterm benefits, while also investing to develop the the components. The first two components ofinformation base that can reduce the uncertain- the study focus on two of the hazards identifiedties and guide the evolution of adaptation actions in the BCCSAP—tropical cyclones/storm surgesover time. and inland flooding. They assess the added risk
xiv E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Table ES.1 Scope of study in the context of programs and activities included in the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan* Theme Immediate Short Term Medium to Long TermFood, Water and sanitation program in Institutional capacity and researchsecurity, climate vulnerable areas towards climate-resilient cultivars andsocial their dissemination Livelihood protection inprotection and ecologically fragile areas Development of climate-resilienthealth cropping systems Livelihood protection of vulnerable socioeconomic groups Adaptation against drought, salinity (including women) submergence and heat Adaptation in fisheries sector Adaptation in livestock sector Adaptation in health sectorComprehensive Improvement of floods forecasting Risk management against loss ofdisaster and early warning system income and propertymanagement Improvement of cyclone and storm- surge warning Awareness raising and public educa- tion towards climate resilienceInfrastructure Repair and maintenance of existing Planning, design, and implementation Repair and maintenance of existing flood embankments of resuscitation of networks of rivers coastal polders and khals through Repair and maintenance of existing Improvement of urban drainage dredging and de-siltation work cyclone shelter Adaptation against floods Adaptation against future cyclones and storm-surges Planning, design, and construction of river training worksResearch, and Establishment of a center for research, Preparatory studies for adaptation Monitoring of ecosystem andknowledge knowledge management, and training against sea level rise (SLR) and its biodiversity changes and their impactsmanagement climate change impacts Macroeconomic and sectoral Climate change modeling at national economic impacts of CC and sub-national levels Monitoring of internal and external migration of adversely impacted popu- lation and providing support to them through capacity building for their rehabilitation in new environment Monitoring of impact on various issues related to management of tourism in Bangladesh and implementation of priority action planMitigation and Renewable energy development Rapid expansion of energy saving Improved energy efficiency in produc-low carbon devices e.g. (CFL) tion and consumption of energy Management of urban wastedevelopment Improving in energy consumption Gas exploration and reservoir Afforestation and reforestation pattern in transport sector and management programme options for mitigation Development of coal mines and coal- fired power station(s) Lower emissions from agricultural land Energy and water efficiency in built environmentCapacity Revision of sectoral policies for climate Strengthening human resourcebuilding and resilience capacityinstitutional Mainstreaming climate change in Strengthening gender consideration instrengthening national, sectoral and spatial develop- climate change management ment programs Strengthening institutional capacity for climate change management Mainstreaming climate change in the media* Quantitative and Quantitative Analysis, Qualitative Analysis only, Not covered
BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY xvof these hazards due to climate change relative all 19 severe cyclones that have made landfallto the existing risks, identify specific assets and in Bangladesh during the past 50 years indicateactivities that are at risk, and estimate the cost that they would overtop 43 of the existing pol-of adaptation actions to protect against these ders. Further, super-cyclonic storms (with windsrisks. Sequencing of these actions is facilitated by greater than 220 km/hr) have a return period ofdetailed spatially disaggregated identification of around 10 years; currently, a single such stormadaptation options and associated cost estimates. would result in damages and losses averaging 2.4In addition, the future economic damages from percent of GDP. Climate change is expected toa single super cyclonic event are also estimated, increase the severity of cyclones and the surgesboth with current risks and with the added risks they induce by 2050. When combined with anfrom climate change to provide a point of refer- expected rise in sea level, cyclone-induced stormence for comparing the cost of adapting to this surges are projected to inundate an additional 15risk. The third component of the study focuses percent of the coastal area. The depth of inun-on both the direct and economy-wide impacts dation is also expected to increase. While eco-of climate change on agriculture and food secu- nomic expansion is expected to expose additionalrity from a full range of climate risks, includ- assets to inundation risk by 2050, expected struc-ing droughts (the third hazard identified in the tural shifts in the economy away from climate-BCCSAP), floods, sea level rise, warmer tempera- sensitive sectors, increases in urbanization, andtures, and increased CO2 concentrations. While a greater affordability of cyclone-resilient housingfull set of adaptation options and the public sector is expected to limit the damages and losses fromcosts to address these impacts are not quantita- a single severe storm in 2050 to around $9.2 bil-tively analyzed, the relative desirability of trans- lion, or 0.6 percent of GDP. About half of theseferring existing coping strategies to newly affected damages and losses would occur even without theareas is examined. The final component provides added risks from climate change, so the incremen-local perspectives on adaptation as seen by the tal damages from the added risk from a changingpoor and most vulnerable population. It exam- climate are around $4.6 billion.ines the determinants of the adaptive capacity ofthe vulnerable populations and solicits from local, Adaptation. Existing investments, which haveregional and national stakeholders—through the reduced the impacts of cyclone-induced stormuse of participatory scenarios—the types of pub- surges, provide a solid foundation upon which tolic support that would best enable the vulnerable undertake additional measures to reduce potentialpopulation to cope with potential climate change damages now and in the future. However, theseimpacts. investments are not sufficient to address the exist- ing risks, much less the future risk from climate change. By 2050, total investments of $5,516 mil-Results lion and $112 million in annual recurrent costs will be needed to protect against storm surge risk,The impacts of climate change and adaptation including that from climate change (Table ES.2).options analyzed and the cost of these options fromeach study component are summarized below. Of this, strengthening 43 polders against existing risks requires investments of $2,462 million and(1) Tropical cyclones and storm surges annual recurrent costs of $49 million. Even if theImpacts. The risk from cyclones and the storm numerous cyclone shelter construction programssurges they induce spans the entire Bangladesh provide sufficient capacity to protect all currentcoastline. Most of it is currently protected by 123 coastal area residents in at-risk areas, an additionalpolders constructed since the 1960s. Analyses of 2,930 shelters will need to be constructed by 2050
xvi E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Table ES.2 Cost of adapting to tropical cyclones and storm surges by 2050 ($ millions) CC Scenario Baseline Scenario (additional risk due (total risk= (existing risks) to CC) existing + CC) Adaptation Option IC ARC IC ARC IC ARC Polders 2,462 49 893 18 3,355 67 Afforestation 75 75 Cyclone shelters 628 13 1,219 24 1,847 37 Resistant housing 200 200 Early warning system 39 8 39 8 Total 3,090 62 2,426 50 5,516 112 CC = climate change; IC = investment cost; ARC = annual recurrent costat an estimated cost of $628 million to accommo- even under current risks, and (c) upgrading thedate the expected population growth in coastal spatial and temporal resolution of forecasting andareas even under existing risk. Design innovations early warning systems. These actions should beand targeted subsidies can reduce the private cost accompanied by research to improve knowledgeof cyclone-resistant housing and hence the need about the timing and spatial distribution of addedfor an even larger number of shelters. risks from climate change, which can guide the pace of additional adaptation efforts.Protecting against the added risks from climatechange will require further strengthening of 59 (2) Inland monsoon floodingpolders; afforesting sea-facing polders to reduce Impacts. Bangladesh has been incurring signifi-the hydraulic load of storm surges; constructing cant damages in terms of crop losses, destruction5,702 additional cyclone shelters; providing incen- of roads and other infrastructure, disruption totives to increase affordability of cyclone resistant industry and commerce, and injuries and losseshousing; improving the spatial and temporal reso- in human lives from severe inland monsoonlution of forecasting and early warning systems; floods once every three to five years. The 1998and expanding disaster preparedness programs flood inundated over two-thirds of Bangladeshin 19 additional districts. These additional mea- and resulted in damages and losses of over $2 bil-sures are expected to require an additional $2,426 lion, or 4.8 percent of GDP. Increased monsoonmillion in investments and $50 million in annual precipitation, higher transboundary water flows,recurrent costs. and rising sea levels resulting from climate change are expected to increase the depth and extent ofRecognizing the uncertainties in the timing and inundation. The impacts of climate change aremagnitude of the added risks from climate change, measured by comparing the inundation levelsa prudent strategy would begin by addressing the predicted by simulations using the MIROC 3.2existing risks that current coastal residents face Global Circulation Model predictions under thethrough (a) continued support for the construction A2 emission scenario (this simulation predicts theof an adequate number of multipurpose shelters largest increase in runoff) with the inundation lev-to protect the current populations from the exist- els in the 1998 floods. Climate change places aning risks, (b) upgrading and strengthening 43 exist- additional 4 percent of land area at risk of inunda-ing polders that are at risk of being overtopped tion. Further, inundation depth increases in most
BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY xviiareas currently at risk, with increases greater than ES.3). The full cost of protection in 2050 will also15 cm in about 544 km2, or 0.4 percent of the require addressing the existing risks of flooding,country. These are underestimates of the actual which are likely to be of the same of order ofincreased risk from climate change, as they do not magnitude. Recognizing the uncertainties in theaccount for the frequent river course changes. timing and magnitude of the added risks from cli-The total inundation risks in 2050 are actually mate change, a prudent strategy would begin bysubstantial, considering the increased risks are addressing the existing risks of monsoon floodingmeasured relative to the 1998 flood. Despite together with research on improving the temporalthe higher risks, the rural population exposed and spatial resolution of flood predictions, whichto flooding, however, is expected to decline from can guide additional actions.current levels due to the rural-to-urban migrationthat is projected to occur by 2050. 3) Agriculture and food security Impacts. The combined effects of rising tempera-Adaptation. Rural households have adapted their tures, higher precipitation, CO2 fertilization,farming systems to the “normal floods” that typi- severe flooding, occasional seasonal droughts, andcally inundate about a quarter of the country loss of arable land in coastal areas resulting fromevery year by switching to high-yielding rice crops climate change are expected to result in declinesinstead of low-yielding deepwater rice. As a result, in rice production of 3.9 percent each year, or aagricultural production has actually risen over cumulative total of 80 million tons over 2005–50.the past few decades. High-magnitude, low-fre- Overall, climate change is expected to decreasequency floods such as the 1998 floods, however, do agricultural GDP by 3.1 percent each year—aresult in significant damages. The cost of protect- cumulative $36 billion in lost value-added—dur-ing against the existing risks of severe monsoon ing 2005–50. The economic losses increase byflooding was not estimated largely because of data threefold—to a cumulative $129 billion—whenlimitations. The additional cost to protect (a) road the indirect impacts on complementary industriesnetworks and railways, (b) river embankments to and the dynamic effects on asset formation andprotect highly productive agricultural lands, (c) productivity growth are included. This is equiva-drainage systems, and (d) erosion control measures lent to an average of $2.9 billion per year—andfor high-value assets such as towns against the as high as $5.1 billion per year under more pes-higher inundation depths due to climate change simistic climate scenarios—with economic lossesare estimated at $2,671 million in investment costs rising in later years. Around 80 percent of totaland $54 million in annual recurrent costs (Table losses fall directly on household consumption and Table ES.3 Total adaption cost to address increased risk of inland flooding from climate change by 2050 ($ millions) Adaptation Option Investment Cost Annual Recurrent Cost Transport – Road height enhancement 2,122 42 Transport – Road cross-drainage 5 - Transport – Railway height enhancement 27 1 Embankment – height enhancement 96 2 Coastal Polders – cross drainage 421 8 Erosion Control Program 1 Total Costs 2,671 54
xviii E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G Ehence have severe household welfare implications; partial cost estimates. In addition, longer termthe southern coastal regions and the northwest- adaptation has to also include development ofern regions are expected to experience the largest alternatives, particularly to the boro crop in theincome declines. southern region.Adaptation. While the public sector cost of adap- (4) Poverty and local-leveltation in the agriculture sector was not quantita- perspectivestively estimated, the relative merits of a number Impacts. The risks from tropical cyclones, stormof short-term adaptation measures—namely surges, floods, and other climatic hazards are geo-the extension of currently available options into graphically concentrated in specific regions of thenew areas—are examined from the farmer’s country, which also have higher concentrations ofperspective. These measures primarily exam- the poor. The poor and the socially most vulner-ine the merits of promoting existing crops from able are disproportionately affected, as they haveone area to another as the climate regime shifts. the lowest capacity to cope with these losses. TheThey provide low-cost options for adapting to most vulnerable population includes those withsmall changes in the climatic regime and may few assets, subsistence farmers, the rural landless,be suitable for some areas in the near term. Part the urban poor, fishing communities, women,of the medium-term adaptation strategy will be children, and the elderly. They do not have suf-to control the damages from inland floods; the ficient resources to invest in preventive and pro-study’s inland floods component included some tective measures such as disaster-resilient housing,
BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY xixmaking them more vulnerable to the full effects teams in Char areas. While they are similar toof these hazards. Their access to public ser- adaptation options identified in the BCCSAP,vices, which might buffer them from some of the they do provide a greater emphasis on softerimpacts, is also limited. In addition, their ability approaches (governance), include more gen-to better prepare themselves in the longer term eral options (education), and are more directlyis also often limited by the destruction of their targeted to the community level (use of mobileasset base. These effects are further compounded medical teams).if vulnerable households suffer from multipleextreme-event shocks one after the other, without Some caution is advisable in reviewingsufficient time for recovery in between the shocks. these study results.To the extent that it increases the frequency ofthese events, climate change will only exacerbate The mathematical tools and models used in thisthese impacts. study impose intellectual discipline; allow for the estimation of impacts, costs, and benefits ofAdaptation. The adaptive capacity of households is adaptation actions; and facilitate prioritizationgenerally low, with poor urban dwellers the most of actions. These strengths can also be limitingdisadvantaged due to the limited opportunities if the most important questions depend on insti-for livelihood diversification and low social capi- tutional, political, or cultural factors that aretal. The most common forms of private adap- not amenable to such tools; for example, howtation activities among surveyed households are to locate residents and economic activity awaytemporary migration of adult men for day labor, from high-risk or increasingly unproductiveconstruction of platforms to protect livestock, areas, how to improve the allocation of waterand storage of food and drinking water prior to and land, or how to improve the quality of edu-extreme events. The preferred public adaptation cation. Within the limitations imposed by theactivities from a local perspective—as identified modeling frameworks, important limitations ofby participants in local and national participa- this study derive from three sources of uncer-tory scenario development workshops—include tainty: climate, economic growth, and technol-(a) environmental management (mangrove pres- ogy. The climate scenarios used in the analysiservation, afforestation, coastal greenbelts, waste are predicated on future global economic growthmanagement); (b) water resource management and global efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases(drainage, rainwater harvesting, drinking water (GHGs). Whereas predicted changes in climateprovision, and flood control); (c) infrastructure through 2050 largely depend on current and(roads, cyclone shelters); (d) livelihood diversi- past emissions, future global mitigation effortsfication and social protection for fishers during will increasingly determine the extent of warm-the cyclone season; (e) education; (e) agricul- ing toward the latter half of this century. Whileture, including development of salt-tolerant and it is unlikely that technological breakthroughshigh-yield varieties and crop insurance; (f) fisher- can greatly reduce the costs of adaptation, dra-ies, including storm-resistant boats and conflict matic reductions in the cost of mitigation areresolution between shrimp and rice farmers; (g) possible over the next few decades. A highergovernance, especially access to social services return on investment in mitigation would in turnfor urban poor; (h) gender-responsive disas- reduce the amount of adaptation that would beter management, including separate rooms for required in the longer term. Nevertheless, it iswomen in cyclone shelters, mini-shelters closer essential to invest in adaptation to at least meetto villages, and the use of female voices in early the unavoidable warming.warning announcements; and (i) mobile medical
xx E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G ELessons and is expected to currently overtop 43 existing pol- ders. The expected damages from a single severeRecommendations cyclone currently is of the same order of magni- tude as the total cost of strengthening all 43 pol-Despite significant investments over the past 50 ders that would currently be overtopped. Futureyears, climate-related disasters continue to have damages are expected to be higher for two rea-significant damages. Without additional actions, sons: (a) higher risks as sea level rise and stormsthese damages will certainly persist into the fore- become more intense due to climate change; andseeable future. While there is great uncertainty (b)an increase in the value of assets that wouldabout the magnitude and the timing of the added be located in at-risk areas as incomes rise. Stepsrisk from climate change, the risks and hence the taken to strengthen these 43 polders would notpotential damages are expected to increase. In a only protect against future risks, but also pro-fiscally constrained environment with competing vide immediate benefits by preventing damagespriorities, climate adaptation actions have to be from current risks, and hence are a near-termprioritized and sequenced, particularly given the priority.1large costs required to prevent and protect againstthese risks. The BCCSAP provides a starting point During cyclonic events, existing multipurposefor doing so. This study examines the key drivers— shelters have also effectively protected the coastalthe degree of certainty, the timing of the benefits, population. The ongoing development benefitsand the cost of action—to enable further substan- of these shelters—as clinics, schools, or com-tiation and refinement of the sequencing envi- munity centers—easily offset (fully or partially)sioned in the BCCSAP. A good near-term strategy the construction cost of these facilities. Numer-would be to protect populations and assets against ous programs are already under way to constructcurrent climate risks while investing to reduce the additional multipurpose shelters. A near-termuncertainties about the magnitude and timing of priority is to assess the adequacy of the currentfuture risks. The future risks can then be addressed construction programs to provide sufficient shel-in the medium to long term as the risks and the ter capacity to accommodate the current popula-potential damages become more certain. tion living in areas currently at risk of cyclones and storm surges, and to develop a plan for con-Near term structing additional shelters as necessary.(1) Addressing current climate-related Detailed analyses were not carried out to exam-risks: a current priority ine the costs of addressing current risks for otherRehabilitating polders currently at risk of being climate hazards such as inland monsoon flood-overtopped during a typical severe cyclone not ing or droughts. Nevertheless, the large damagesonly protects against the increased future risks associated with current climate variability makesfrom climate change but also provides immediate it prudent to start by addressing the known cur-benefits by reducing the damages from current rent risks in the near term before beginning tostorms. This study assessed the risk that polders address the less certain future risks. Shoring upmight be overtopped during cyclone-induced river embankments, elevating roads, or addingstorm surges currently and with the added risk culverts to accommodate drainage requirementsof climate change. The polder-specific coststo prevent overtopping under these two condi- 1 If needed, these polders can be further prioritized throughtions were determined from detailed engineering further analyses that compare the assets and activities that would be protected by each polder with the costs of strengthening thatanalysis of each polder. A typical severe storm polder.
BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY xxifor severe monsoon floods that exist today wouldnot only provide immediate benefits, but also pro-tect against increased future flood risks that areexpected with climate change.Similarly, given the large impacts of current cli-mate variability on the agriculture sector, a pru-dent near-term strategy would be to promoteactivities and policies that help households andthe government build resilience to existing climateshocks affecting crop yields, particularly becauseof the lead time needed to strengthen researchsystems and to transfer and adapt findings fromthe lab to the field. This effort better prepares thecountry and households for whichever future cli-mate materializes.(2) Research and Knowledge Building: keyto improved targeting of future actionsGiven the high cost of infrastructure investments,and the expected gradual increase in climate riskover decades, it is prudent to adapt infrastructureincrementally in response to the added risk of cli-mate change. This is especially true because ofthe large uncertainties regarding the magnitudeand timing of the added risk from climate change.In this regard, research and knowledge focusedon improving the spatial and temporal precisionof current climate-related risk forecasts and asso-ciated early warning systems would enable bet- institutions that (a) gradually integrate new knowl-ter targeting of future adaptation actions. These edge about climate risks into new infrastructureactions not only provide immediate benefits, investments; (b) reduce perverse incentives thatbut also improve the capacity to address climate are often associated with these investments; (c)risks in the future. Supplemental research activi- develop new, more resilient varieties of crops; (d)ties focused on reducing the large uncertainties improve governance and local stakeholder partici-about future climate risks can also guide the pation to increase effectiveness of the hard invest-extent of adaptation that will be needed and its ments; and (e) facilitate regional cooperation forprioritization. the equitable sharing of commonly shared water resources.Medium to Long Term (3) Sound development policies:A good medium- to long-term strategy has to the foundation for an adaptation agendabegin with effective development. Other elements Sound development policies provide the founda-of a longer term strategy include investments in tion for adaptation action in the medium to longprograms and the creation or strengthening of term. Adaptation takes place in the context of
xxii E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G Edevelopment, which defines both the opportuni- costs. As research makes the risk of flooding in aties to adapt and generates the means for adapting location more apparent, the design standards forto climate change. Expected structural changes roads in these areas need to be increased accord-in the economy—away from climate-sensitive ingly. Similarly, polders need to be strengthenedsectors such as agriculture toward industry and beyond their current protective capacity as theservices—reduce exposure to climate risks, while added risk from storm surges becomes more cer-urbanization concentrates risks but also provides tain. Applying the standards to infrastructurenew opportunities to manage them better. Invest- investments as they are replaced not only pro-ments to expand the road system and increase vides a flexible way to integrate the most updatedthe share of paved roads lowers transport costs, research outcomes but also provides a natural wayenhances the ability of farmers to respond to mar- to modulate adaptation efforts, scaling up adapta-ket changes and expand markets, while lessening tion efforts if the risks are increasing or limitingthe impacts of floods. Poverty exacerbates vulner- efforts if the risks are stable or declining.ability to weather variability as well as climatechange, so reducing poverty is central to both (5) Reducing perverse incentives:development and adaptation. Rising incomes a necessity to increase effectiveness ofenable households to autonomously adapt and infrastructure investmentsbetter cope with climate-related disasters—for As a general rule, investments—such as floodinstance, by increasing the affordability of cli- embankments or polders—designed to protectmate-resilient housing, which can dramatically vulnerable assets should be subjected to carefulreduce the number of shelters that are necessary consideration. Strengthening an embankment isto protect coastal residents. The effectiveness of followed, almost by definition, by an accumulationadaptation programs can be also be improved of physical capital in the shadow of the embank-through the targeting of adaptation actions that ment because it is considered “safe.” However, asdirectly assist the poor, such as early warning and the tragedy of New Orleans dramatically illus-evacuation services, basic education (particularly trated, a sufficiently extreme event will breach afor women), and subsidized insurance programs. polder. The combination of the increasing sever- ity of extreme events, the high costs of provid-(4) Adjustment of design standards ing physical protection, and the accumulation offor infrastructure: essential for future capital behind such barriers can mean that theresilience expected value of losses, including human suffer-Infrastructure investments are long-lived and ing, may not be reduced—either at all, or by asexpensive and yield large benefits when designed much as expected by investments in protection.appropriately. It is essential to institutionalizethe development of appropriate standards com- The long-term challenge is to move people andmensurate with the likely climate risks over the economic activity into less climate-sensitive areasexpected lives of the assets and to update them and to seek a strategic balance between protect-over time based on new research results that ing existing populations and encouraging thebecome available. For example, the prospect of mobility of future populations. In 2050, the num-more intense precipitation has implications for ber of people living in cities will triple, while theunpaved roads, especially in rural areas, which rural population will fall by 30 percent. Currentare vulnerable to being washed away by floods policies will determine where this urban popula-and heavy rainfall. Single-lane sealed roads have tion settles and how prepared it is to adapt to aa higher capital cost, but they provide a more reli- changed climate. Many households have movedable all-weather network with lower maintenance further inland, partly due to higher perceived risk,
BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY xxiiibut strengthened embankments may change these (7) Improved governance and stakeholderperceptions, leading to increased exposure. Good participation: a complement to hardpolicy needs to encourage future populations to investmentsmove away from naturally high risk areas, avoid- The effectiveness of hard investments depends oning perverse incentives to remain in high-risk both the ability of targeted populations to accessareas and adopting positive incentives to promote them and on their uptake. Improved governancesettlements and urban growth in low-risk areas. and local stakeholder participation are oftenStrengthened education in rural areas is critical key determinants of access and uptake. Reach-for rural migrants to be prepared for productive ing women requires gender-sensitive designs oflives in new urban areas. interventions such as the provision of separate facilities for women in cyclone shelters. Pro-poorSimilar concerns apply to efforts to maintain the adaptation investments include social protec-welfare of populations in areas where climate tion, livelihoods diversification, and investmentschange alters the comparative advantage of agri- in human and social capital (including training,culture and other resource-intensive activities. education, and community-based disaster riskShort-term measures to prevent suffering must management) in order to strengthen local resil-be complemented by long-term measures such as ience to climate change.education, job training, and migration designedto reduce reliance on resources and assets whose (8) Strengthened regional cooperation: anvalue may be eroded by climate change. Adapta- essential option in the long termtion should not attempt to resist the impact of cli- Climate change may greatly increase the need formate change, but rather it should offer a path by regional cooperation. Cooperation on the sharingwhich accommodation to its effects is less disrup- of water resources with neighboring countries intive and does not fall disproportionately on the the GBM basin is not a new issue for Bangladesh,poor and the vulnerable. but it is one whose importance may be greatly increased by climate change. Recognizing its(6) Development of climate-resilient cul- importance, Bangladesh has been meeting sincetivars and cropping: an option for long- 2006 with six other neighboring countries—term food security including India, Nepal, and China—as part ofAdditional research will also be necessary for the Abu Dhabi Dialogue. These dialogues havethe development of climate-resilient cultivars resulted in a consensus vision of a “cooperativeand cropping patterns that are more suited to and knowledge-based partnership of states fairlythe future climatic conditions, particularly in the managing and developing the Himalayan riversouthern coastal regions, which are expected to systems,” as well as agreements on specific actionsbe affected the most by climate change. Bangla- to advance the water cooperation agenda. As thedesh already has an active network of agricul- stakes rise, effective steps taken now to promotetural research institutes that develop and test new and strengthen the cooperative programs suchcrop varieties to increase national production as the Abu Dhabi Dialogue can not only provideand resilience against climate risks. The magni- immediate benefits to all parties, but can also pre-tude of the additional effort and the direction it vent the need for expensive and possibly disrup-takes will depend on the specific future climate tive solutions in the future.that materializes.
xxiv O NE E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY 1IntroductionMotivation and Context for initial findings were that developing countries willthe EACC Study need $70 to $100 billion per year between 2010 and 2050 to adapt to a world that is approximately 20C warmer in 2050 (World Bank 2010).The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change(EACC) study has two specific objectives. The first Each country case study under the countryis to develop a “global” estimate of adaptation costs track consists of a series of studies that exam-to inform the international community’s efforts to ine the impacts of climate change and the costshelp those developing countries most vulnerable to of adapting to them for select major economicclimate change to meet adaptation costs. The sec- sectors. Most case studies also included vulner-ond objective is to help decision makers in devel- ability assessments and a participatory scenariooping countries to better understand and assess the workshop to highlight the differential impact ofrisks posed by climate change and to better design climate change on vulnerable groups and to iden-strategies to adapt to climate change. The study tify the types of adaptation strategies that cancomprises a global track to meet the first study benefit those that are most vulnerable. Finally, theobjective and a country case study track to meet the sectoral analyses were integrated into analyticalsecond objective. The country track comprises seven tools—such as a computable general equilibriumcountry case studies: Bangladesh, Bolivia, Ethiopia, model—to identify cross-sectoral constraints andGhana, Mozambique, Samoa, and Vietnam. effects such as relative price changes. The findings from each of the seven countries—as well as aUsing data sets with global coverage at the country final synthesis report covering both the global andlevel, the global track estimated adaptation costs the country tracks—will be available in 2010.for all developing countries by major economicsectors, including agriculture, forestry, fisheries,infrastructure, water resources, coastal zones, and Context for the Bangladeshhealth. Adaptation for ecosystem services is also Case Studydiscussed qualitatively. The study also consideredthe cost implications of changes in the frequency ofextreme weather events, including the implications Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable coun-for social protection programs. The global track’s tries in the world to climate risks. Two-thirds of
2 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G Ethe nation is less than 5 meters above sea level related hazards. Agricultural production hasand is susceptible to river and rainwater flood- actually risen over the past few decades as ruraling, particularly during the monsoon. Due to its households have adapted their farming systems tolocation at the tail end of the delta formed by the the “normal floods” that typically inundate aboutGanges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna (GBM) riv- a quarter of the country by switching from low-ers, the timing, location, and extent of flooding yielding deepwater rice to high-yielding rice crops.depends on the precipitation in the entire GBM Higher incomes have also enabled an increas-basin, not just on the 7 percent of the basin that ing proportion of households to live in homeslies within the country. Nearly 80 percent of the that are more resilient to cyclones, storm surges,country’s annual precipitation occurs during the and floods. In addition, the government of Ban-summer monsoon season, when these rivers have gladesh has invested $10 billion since the sixtiesa combined peak flow of 180,000 m3/sec, the on disaster reduction measures—both structuralsecond highest in the world. Once every three to (polders, cyclone shelters, cyclone-resistant hous-five years, up to two-thirds of Bangladesh is inun- ing) and non-structural (early warning and aware-dated by floods that cause substantial damage to ness raising systems) measures—and enhanced itsinfrastructure, housing, agriculture, and liveli- disaster preparedness systems. These investmentshoods. The performance of the agriculture sector have significantly reduced damages and lossesis in turn heavily dependent on the characteristics from extreme climatic events over time, especiallyof the annual floods. Low-lying coastal areas are in terms of deaths and injuries.also at risk from tidal floods and severe cyclones.Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable coun- Large damages and losses, reduced economictries to climate risks, and is the most vulnerable growth and slowed progress in reducing povertyto tropical cyclones. Between 1877 and 1995, following recent climate-related disasters, how-Bangladesh was hit by 154 cyclones—including ever, indicate that these measures are insufficient43 severe cyclonic storms and 68 tropical depres- to protect the exposed population and assetssions— or one severe cyclone every three years, against existing risks. The 1998 monsoon floodeither before or after the monsoon, creating inundated over two- thirds of Bangladesh andstorm surges that are sometimes in excess of 10 resulted in damages and losses of over $2 billion,meters. The largest damages from a cyclone result or 4.8 percent of GDP. The losses were evenlyfrom the induced-storm surges, and Bangladesh is split among agriculture, infrastructure, and indus-on the receiving end of about 40 percent of the try/commerce. Cyclone Sidr resulted in damagesimpact of total storm surges in the world. Crops and losses of $1.7 billion, or 2.6 percent of GDPand the livelihoods of the rural poor in low-lying in 2007. About half the losses were in the housingcoastal areas are also devastated by saline water sector, followed by agriculture and infrastructure.intrusion into aquifers and groundwater and land When averaged over the past decade, the directsubmergence. In addition, seasonal droughts annual costs from natural disasters to the nationaloccasionally hit the northwestern region. economy—in terms of damages to infrastructure and livelihoods and losses from forgone produc-Addressing the impacts of climate and non-cli- tion—have been estimated at 0.5 percent to 1mate natural disasters has been an integral part percent of GDP. These statistics do not includeof the nation’s development plans. Investments the significant loss of life that has also occurredmade over the past 50 years have made Bangla- during these events.desh more resilient to climate-related hazards, butadditional steps are necessary to reduce potential These damages and losses are geographicallydamages from both existing and future climate- concentrated in areas that also have higher
BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY 3concentrations of the poor, affecting them dis- and Action Plan in 2009 to guide its actions in allproportionately (Figure 1.1). They live in thatch areas related to climate change. Until the past fewor tin houses that are more susceptible to direct years, climatic risks have been poorly reflected indamages from cyclones, storm surges, and floods. major national policies and programs in Bangla-Additionally, most rural households depend on desh. The country launched the National Adap-weather-sensitive sectors—agriculture, fisheries, tation Program of Action (NAPA) in 2005, whichand other natural resources—for their livelihood. identified 15 priority activities that were subse-Destruction of their assets and livelihoods leaves quently updated to 45 programs in 2009. The firstthe poor with a limited capacity to recover. The sectoral policy to explicitly include climate changeimportance of adapting to these climate risks to impacts and actions—the Coastal Zone Policy—maintain economic growth and reduce poverty is was adopted in 2005. Climate change has beenthus very clear. a key concern in the redrafting of the National Water Management Plan (NWMP). RecognizingIn a fiscally constrained environment, with com- that a wide range of policies have the potential topeting priorities, efforts to address climate related address climate-related hazards and vulnerability,risks can easily be set-aside. Recognizing these the government developed and adopted throughcomplexities, the government of Bangladesh a consultative process the Bangladesh Climateadopted the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy Change Strategy and Action Plan 2009 to guide Figure 1.1 Poverty and climate hazardsSource: BBS, World Bank, and WFP 2009
4 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G Eeconomy-wide efforts to adapt to climate change median discharges in the three rivers during theand to mitigate greenhouse gases. It identifies summer months are expected to increase betweenthree climate hazards—tropical cyclones/storm 6 and 18 percent by the 2050s. These climaticsurges, inland flooding, and droughts. The strat- changes are expected to exacerbate existing cli-egy contains 44 programs formulated around six mate hazards — such as cyclones/storm surges,themes—food security/social protection/health, different floods, droughts, salinity, waterlogging,comprehensive disaster management, infrastruc- and drainage congestion — increasing theirture, research/knowledge management, miti- severity and frequency.gation/low carbon development, and capacitybuilding/institutional strengthening (see TableES.1). Thirty-four programs listed under five Scope of This Reportthemes are wholly or partially focused on adap-tation. The strategy includes an implementation This report synthesizes the series of studies thattimeframe for each program and is estimated to constitute the EACC Bangladesh case study.require $500 million in the first two years and The study is intended to assist the governmentabout $5 billion in the first five years for full of Bangladesh in its efforts to understand howimplementation. The government allocated $100 climate change may alter the physical and eco-million from its own resources in FY 09-10 and nomic impacts of existing climate-related haz-has budgeted $100 million in FY10–11 toward ards, as well as the effectiveness and costs ofactions contained in the strategy. It is actively available adaptation options. The study takesseeking additional resources to implement the full as its starting point the BCCSAP. It builds uponstrategy. and strengthens the analytical models and quan- titative assessment tools already in use in Bangla- desh in support of the research and knowledgeClimate Change and management theme of BCCSAP. This study usesBangladesh these tools to (a) examine the potential physical impacts of climate change; (b) assess the associ- ated damages and losses in key economic sec-A warmer and wetter future climate that goes tors, vulnerable populations, and in the overallbeyond historical variations will exacerbate exist- economy; (c) estimate spatially disaggregateding climatic risks and increase vulnerability by costs of adaptation options that can reduce theseincreasing the extent and depth of inundation impacts; and (d) sequence the adaptation actionsfrom flooding and storm surges and by reducing over time. The study is not a substitute for thearable land due to sea level rise and salinity intru- BCCSAP, instead it is designed to provide moresion. The median predictions from the general precise cost estimates actions in the BCCSAPcirculation models (GCMs) are for Bangladesh and approaches to sequencing these actions in ato be 1.5oC warmer and 4 percent wetter by the fiscally constrained environment.2050s. Severe cyclones originating in the Bay ofBengal are also expected to occur more frequently The scope of the study is more limited, encom-as a result of warmer ocean surface temperatures. passing about 21 of the adaptation actions identi-Cyclone-induced storm surges are further exac- fied in BCCSAP (as highlighted in Table ES.1).erbated by a potential rise in sea level of over 27 Some important and likely expensive adaptationcm by 2050. Most GCMs predict precipitation activities—such as urban drainage, river trainingincreases of up to 20 percent during July, August, works, dredging and desiltation, and protection ofand September for the GBM basin. As a result, ecosystem services—are not included in the study,
BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY 5so the reported costs represent a lower bound of provide a point of reference for comparing thethe total adaptation costs in Bangladesh. cost of adapting to this risk. The third compo- nent of the study focuses on both the direct andThe study was developed in four discrete and economy-wide impacts of climate on agricul-somewhat independent components with varying ture and food security from a full range ofdegrees of analytical depth and quantification. climate risks, including droughts (the third haz-When feasible, common assumptions and similar ard identified in the BCCSAP), floods, sea levelmethodologies were used to increase compara- rise, warmer temperatures, and increased CO2bility and cohesion among the components. The concentrations. While a full set of adaptationfirst two components of the study focus on two of options and their public sector costs to addressthe hazards identified in the BCCSAP—tropi- these impacts are not analyzed, the relativecal cyclones/storm surges and inland desirability of transferring existing coping strat-flooding. They assess the added risk of these egies to newly affected areas is examined. Thehazards due to climate change in the context final component provides local perspectivesof the existing risks, identify specific assets and on adaptation as seen by the poor and mostactivities that are at risk, and estimate the cost vulnerable population. It examines the determi-of adaptation actions to protect against these nants of the adaptive capacity of the vulnerablerisks. Sequencing of these actions is facilitated by populations and solicits from local, regional anddetailed spatially disaggregated identification of national stakeholders—through the use of par-adaptation options and associated cost estimates. ticipatory scenarios—the types of public supportIn addition, the future economic damages from a that would best enable the vulnerable populationsingle super cyclonic event are also estimated to to cope with potential climate change impacts.
6 T WO E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E
BA N G L A D E S H CO U N T RY ST U DY 7Existing Climate Variabilityand Climate ChangeMost of Bangladesh consists of extremely low land. mm of rain. The hydrometeorological character-Dhaka, the capital city with a population of over 12 istics of the three river basins make the countrymillion, is about 225 km from the coast but within vulnerable to a range of climate risks, including8 meters above mean sea level (MSL). Land eleva- severe flooding and periodic droughts.tion increases toward the northwest and reaches anelevation of about 90 meters above MSL. The high- This chapter characterizes the risks that Bangla-est areas are the hill tracts in the eastern and Chit- desh is currently facing due to variability in thetagong regions. The lowest parts of the country are current climate and how these are expected toin the coastal areas, which are vulnerable to tidal and change based on projections of the future climatecyclone-induced storm surges and sea level rise. through 2050. It is largely based on a comple- mentary World Bank study focused on climateBangladesh is situated at the confluence of three change and food security that has recently beengreat rivers—the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, and completed (Yu et al. 2010).the Meghna. Over 90 percent of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin lies outsidethe boundaries of the country. The country is Existing Climate Variabilityintersected by more than 200 rivers, of which54 rivers enter Bangladesh from India. Like the Historical precipitation levelsrest of the GBM basin, Bangladesh has a humid Figure 2.1 shows trends in the annual and sea-subtropical climate. The year can be divided into sonal precipitation levels averaged across 32four seasons: the relatively dry and cool winter rainfall stations (both BMD and BWDB stations)from December to February, the hot and humid in Bangladesh between 1960 and 2001. Thesummer from March through May, the southwest national mean annual rainfall during this periodsummer monsoon from June through Septem- was 2,447 mm, with a maximum of 4,050 mm (inber, and the retreating monsoon from October Sylhet) and minimum of 1450 mm (in Rajshahi).to November. The southwest summer monsoon The maximum rainfall occurs during the June,is the dominating hydrologic driver in the GBM July, and August monsoon months (JJA). Neitherbasin. More than 80 percent of annual precipita- the annual nor seasonal precipitation time seriestion occurs during this period. Some areas of the show any statistically significant changes over thisSouth Asia subcontinent can receive up to 10,000 time period.
8 E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E Figure 2.1 Annual and seasonal (mm) precipitation averaged across meteorological stations by year350030002500200015001000 500 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 DJF MAM JJA SON ANNNote: DJF = December, January, February; MAM = March, April, May; JJA = June, July, August;SON = September, October, November.Source: Yu, W.H., et al. (2010) TABLE 2.1 PEAK DISCHARGE AND TIMING DURING EXTREME FLOOD YEARS Brahmaputra Ganges Meghna Return Return Extreme period period Years Date m3/s Date m3/s Date m3/s (area) (vol) 1974 7-Aug 91,100 3-Sep 50,700 - 21,100 7 7 1980 20-Aug 61,200 22-Aug 57,800 7-Aug 12,400 2 2 1984 20-Sep 76,800 17-Sep 56,500 17-Sep 15,400 2 4 1987 16-Aug 73,000 20-Sep 75,800 4-Aug 15,600 9 10 1988 31-Aug 98,300 4-Sep 71,800 18-Sep 21,000 79 34 1998 9-Sep 103,100 11-Sep 74,280 - 18,600 100 52 2004 12-Jul 83,900 19-Jul 77,430 - 16,300 10 20 Average 67,490 51,130 13,370 Min 40,900 31,500 7,940 Source: BWDB