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Notes by MS




              1
Business risk assessment refers to the assessment of
risks and opportunities affecting the achievements of
the organizational goals and objectives.
Business risk assessed at three levels. Business risk
assessment at all three levels is essential to identify the
THREATS, OPPORTUNITIES and ALTERNATIVES for action
to achieve the organizational goal and objectives:
  Strategic: guidance for a time period of 5 to 10 years
   and assessment performed by senior management.
   It is usually limited to assessment i.e. Identification,
   Measurement and prioritization of risk.




                                                              2
   Project/Program/Process: for current period of
    organizational activity. Project manager or process owner
    is responsible for initial assessment and monitoring or
    may also share with an oversight committee.
    It is a mixture/blend of risk assessment in the planning
    phase and risk management in the implementation phase.
   Operational: in everyday operations like health and safety
    issues. This performed by supervisory level or by
    individuals or work team tasked with a particular
    management.
    It is usually focuses on risk management i.e. standard
    workplace risks and hazards have been already identified
    in strategic process of assessment; the task is to manage
    risk to get the job done.




                                                                 3
Strategic Risk Assessment
1.  Understanding of overall goals and objectives by
    examining of fundamental documents and
    classification of indentified goals and objectives into
    SHORT, MEDIUM and LONG TERMS issues.
2.  Choosing of strategic risks that are likely to be of
    greatest importance:
  ◦ Operational risk is that entity will not meet its operational
    goals and objectives.
  ◦ Fiscal risk is that deficiencies in expenditure control and
    revenues will adversely affect agreed-up outcomes or
    objectives.
  ◦ Reputation risk is that some action by the entity will impair
    the ability to reach its goals and objectives.
  ◦ Other strategic risk, such as Policy, Regulatory etc.



                                                                    4
3.       Definition of various important and relevant
         environments and uncertainties:
     ◦   Political / Government
     ◦   Technological
     ◦   Legal and Regulatory
     ◦   Competitors
     ◦   Customers, Constituents and stakeholders
     ◦   Physical
     ◦   Markets
     ◦   Suppliers
     ◦   Economic/Financial


                                                        5
4.   Creation of series of matrices …… environments
     (step 3) X identification based on time (step 1)
5.   Using of various creative processes such as
     brainstorming, imagine scenario of possible
     threats and opportunities for each cell of matrix.
     Thinking outside the box as much as possible.
6.   Combining of the risk assessment for various
     goals and objectives for each of the three time
     horizon to get a composite strategic risk
     assessment.



                                                          6
Project Risk Assessment
It uses a different method to identifying risk
and opportunity. The method can be one or
combination from the following:
  ◦ Exposure analysis based on assets involved
  ◦ Environmental analysis based on study of changes
  ◦ Threats scenario by exploring various narrative
    scenarios under numbers of different conditions,
    especially for catastrophic events and frauds




                                                       7
Observation or/and measurement of risk is a difficult
subject, therefore, risk factors are used that are either
observable or measurable characteristics of conditions
at risk.

A standard set of risk factors and criteria should be
established to measure and rank projects according to
their perceived risk.

Each project, program or process to be formally
assessed for risk should be scored by the project
initiator with the established risk factors based on
understanding of the project, program or process and
the perception of risk as described.


                                                            8
Procedure of Project Risk Assessment
 ◦ Identify Risk: use one or more methods to identify
   risk i.e. Exposure, Environmental and/or Threat
   analysis.




                                                        9
Measure Risk/Develop Alternatives:
  ◦ Read each factor and sub-criteria for familiarization with aim of
    each.
  ◦ Consider the project, program or process using each of the
    factors/criteria.
  ◦ Score each factor for the project, etc. on a scale of 1 to 5 (lowest
    to highest) based on your subjective assessment of the
    strength/weakness or presence/absence of the criteria.
  ◦ Sum the scores for the each factor and divide by the number of
    factors to get the average score.
  ◦ High risk score are those with an average of 4.25 or more. Low
    risk scores are those with an average score less than 2.25. These
    are starting figures that can be adjusted for experience.
  ◦ Analyze high-risk areas and develop alternatives i.e. controls and
    other risk management techniques, to deal with each of the high
    risk components.
  ◦ Price out the alternatives and compare risk and cost.




                                                                           10
Control design: choose the most cost-effective
controls within reasonable prudence and
organizational tolerance for accepting risk.

Risk Management: monitor risk and hazards,
making adjustments to the project plan as
necessary to meet changing conditions.




                                                 11
Operational Risk Management
Operational risk is the day to day mitigation of safety
and health risks of employees performing their jobs.

Operational risk also covers visitors and temporary
workers in the workplace and risk to general public due
to operations.

The focus of operational risk is on risk management.
Risk assessment usually done by a specialist involved in
workplace risk:
  ◦ Health Risk
  ◦ Safety Risk
  ◦ Environmental Risk



                                                           12

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Business risk assessment

  • 2. Business risk assessment refers to the assessment of risks and opportunities affecting the achievements of the organizational goals and objectives. Business risk assessed at three levels. Business risk assessment at all three levels is essential to identify the THREATS, OPPORTUNITIES and ALTERNATIVES for action to achieve the organizational goal and objectives:  Strategic: guidance for a time period of 5 to 10 years and assessment performed by senior management. It is usually limited to assessment i.e. Identification, Measurement and prioritization of risk. 2
  • 3. Project/Program/Process: for current period of organizational activity. Project manager or process owner is responsible for initial assessment and monitoring or may also share with an oversight committee. It is a mixture/blend of risk assessment in the planning phase and risk management in the implementation phase.  Operational: in everyday operations like health and safety issues. This performed by supervisory level or by individuals or work team tasked with a particular management. It is usually focuses on risk management i.e. standard workplace risks and hazards have been already identified in strategic process of assessment; the task is to manage risk to get the job done. 3
  • 4. Strategic Risk Assessment 1. Understanding of overall goals and objectives by examining of fundamental documents and classification of indentified goals and objectives into SHORT, MEDIUM and LONG TERMS issues. 2. Choosing of strategic risks that are likely to be of greatest importance: ◦ Operational risk is that entity will not meet its operational goals and objectives. ◦ Fiscal risk is that deficiencies in expenditure control and revenues will adversely affect agreed-up outcomes or objectives. ◦ Reputation risk is that some action by the entity will impair the ability to reach its goals and objectives. ◦ Other strategic risk, such as Policy, Regulatory etc. 4
  • 5. 3. Definition of various important and relevant environments and uncertainties: ◦ Political / Government ◦ Technological ◦ Legal and Regulatory ◦ Competitors ◦ Customers, Constituents and stakeholders ◦ Physical ◦ Markets ◦ Suppliers ◦ Economic/Financial 5
  • 6. 4. Creation of series of matrices …… environments (step 3) X identification based on time (step 1) 5. Using of various creative processes such as brainstorming, imagine scenario of possible threats and opportunities for each cell of matrix. Thinking outside the box as much as possible. 6. Combining of the risk assessment for various goals and objectives for each of the three time horizon to get a composite strategic risk assessment. 6
  • 7. Project Risk Assessment It uses a different method to identifying risk and opportunity. The method can be one or combination from the following: ◦ Exposure analysis based on assets involved ◦ Environmental analysis based on study of changes ◦ Threats scenario by exploring various narrative scenarios under numbers of different conditions, especially for catastrophic events and frauds 7
  • 8. Observation or/and measurement of risk is a difficult subject, therefore, risk factors are used that are either observable or measurable characteristics of conditions at risk. A standard set of risk factors and criteria should be established to measure and rank projects according to their perceived risk. Each project, program or process to be formally assessed for risk should be scored by the project initiator with the established risk factors based on understanding of the project, program or process and the perception of risk as described. 8
  • 9. Procedure of Project Risk Assessment ◦ Identify Risk: use one or more methods to identify risk i.e. Exposure, Environmental and/or Threat analysis. 9
  • 10. Measure Risk/Develop Alternatives: ◦ Read each factor and sub-criteria for familiarization with aim of each. ◦ Consider the project, program or process using each of the factors/criteria. ◦ Score each factor for the project, etc. on a scale of 1 to 5 (lowest to highest) based on your subjective assessment of the strength/weakness or presence/absence of the criteria. ◦ Sum the scores for the each factor and divide by the number of factors to get the average score. ◦ High risk score are those with an average of 4.25 or more. Low risk scores are those with an average score less than 2.25. These are starting figures that can be adjusted for experience. ◦ Analyze high-risk areas and develop alternatives i.e. controls and other risk management techniques, to deal with each of the high risk components. ◦ Price out the alternatives and compare risk and cost. 10
  • 11. Control design: choose the most cost-effective controls within reasonable prudence and organizational tolerance for accepting risk. Risk Management: monitor risk and hazards, making adjustments to the project plan as necessary to meet changing conditions. 11
  • 12. Operational Risk Management Operational risk is the day to day mitigation of safety and health risks of employees performing their jobs. Operational risk also covers visitors and temporary workers in the workplace and risk to general public due to operations. The focus of operational risk is on risk management. Risk assessment usually done by a specialist involved in workplace risk: ◦ Health Risk ◦ Safety Risk ◦ Environmental Risk 12