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GRI 2009 A NEW BEGINNING North American Investors and Developers in Real Estate USA
2009 Economic and Financial Outlook Mickey D. Levy USA GRI New York, NY  February 26, 2009
Global Economic Recession ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Potential Growth Remains Healthy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Critical Characteristics of this US Recession ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Long Trends in Home Ownership Source: Census Bureau
The Rise in Indebtedness (percent of GDP) Source: Flow of Funds
The Composition of the Rise in Indebtedness  Source: Flow of Funds/BEA/Bank of America calculations
US Economy:  Deep Recession, Jarring Adjustments ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Global Economy Contracts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Prerequisites for Economic Rebound ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
US Consumer Trends
US Household Net Worth
Unemployment Rate
Corporate Operating Profits as a Share of GDP  Note: Profits before tax with IVA and CCA
Focus on US Housing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
New and Existing Single-Family Home Sales
Housing Inventories:  New and Existing Homes
Case-Shiller Home Prices
Regional Case-Shiller Home Prices
Business Fixed Investment
Real Exports and Imports
US Economic Outlook:  Stimulus Will Help ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Government Monetary and Financial Responses ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
US Fed Monetary Base (reserves plus currency)
Fiscal Policy Responses ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Global Economic Performance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Interest Rates and Financial Trends ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Federal Funds Rate and 10-Year Treasury Bond
Ten Year Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield Spread
Important Disclosures โ€œ BANAโ€ refers to Bank of America, N.A.  โ€œBofAโ€ includes BANA, Banc of America Securities LLC (โ€œBASโ€), Bank of America Securities Investments Inc. Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated (โ€œMLPF&Sโ€) and their respective affiliates. Individuals indentified as BANA economists are not and do not function as research analysts under U.S. law and reports prepared by them are not research reports under applicable U.S. rules and regulations. The views expressed in this report are those of the BANA economists. BANA economists are not part of the Banc of America Securities LLC- Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated Research Department (โ€œBAS-ML Research โ€) and this report is not a product of or distributed by BAS-ML Research. The views and opinions expressed herein may differ from the views and opinions expressed by BAS-ML research analysts and other BofA business units, and BANA is under no obligation to bring such other views or opinions to the attention of any receipient of this report.. BANA economists provide economic advice and information generally to the finance, treasury, risk-management and asset-liability functions within BANA, as well as to other businesses within BANA and its affiliates, and may have previously expressed some or all of the views reflected in this report to these one or more of these businesses within BANA.  [Mickey, should we be contemplating that this report will be distributed in the UK or elsewhere- if so, we need to confirm the rules re BANA distribution in those jurisdictions- in particular the FSA requirements]  This report is distributed electronically via email and hard copy by BANA to internal and external recipients in the United States,  General Investment Related Disclosures : This research report provides general information only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instrument or any derivative related to such securities or instruments (e.g., options, futures, warrants, and contracts for differences). This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies based on general economic matters discussed in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized.  Any decision to purchase or subscribe for securities in any offering must be based solely on existing public information on such security or the information in the prospectus or other offering document issued in connection with such offering and not on this report. You should assume that asset classes that might be mentioned in this report, and securities or other financial instruments related to such asset classes or otherwise  recommended, offered or sold by BofA, are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution (including, BANA).  Investments in general and, derivatives, in particular, involve numerous risks, including, among others, market risk, counterparty default risk and liquidity risk. No security, financial instrument or derivative is suitable for all investors.  In some cases, securities and other financial instruments may be difficult to value or sell and reliable information about the value or risks related to the security or financial instrument may be difficult to obtain.  Investors should note that income from such securities and other financial instruments, if any, may fluctuate and that price or value of such securities and instruments may rise or fall and, in some cases, investors may lose their entire principal investment.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.  Levels and basis for taxation may change. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or financial instrument mentioned in this report. Investors in such securities and instruments, including ADRs, effectively assume currency risk. BofA is a regular issuer of traded financial instruments linked to securities that may be impacted by economic developments discussed in this report.  BofA may, at any time, hold a trading position (long or short) in the securities and financial instruments  that may be impacted by economic developments discussed in this report.  .
Copyright, User Agreement and other general information related to this report:   Copyright 2009 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved. This report is prepared for the use of BAN clients and may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of BANA. BANA reports are distributed via email and in hard copy by BANA and are not publicly-available materials. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this report constitutes your agreement not to redistribute, retransmit, or disclose to others the contents, opinions, conclusion, or information contained in this report (including any investment recommendations, estimates or price targets) without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of BofA. Materials prepared by BANA personnel are based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of BANA, including investment banking personnel. To the extent this report discusses any law, regulation, legal proceeding or issues, it has not been prepared as nor is it intended to express any legal conclusion, opinion or advice. Investors should consult their own legal advisers as to issues of law relating to the subject matter of this report. The author of this report knowledge of legal proceedings in which any BofA entity and/or its directors, officers and employees may be plaintiffs, defendants, co-defendants or co-plaintiffs with or involving companies mentioned in this report is based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material that relate to any such proceedings have not been reviewed by, discussed with, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of BofA in connection with the legal proceedings or matters relevant to such proceedings. This report has been prepared independently of any issuer of securities mentioned herein and not in connection with any proposed offering of securities or as agent of any issuer of any securities. None of BofA or their personnel has any authority whatsoever to make any representation or warranty on behalf of the issuer(s). Any information relating to the tax status of financial instruments discussed herein is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. Investors are urged to seek tax advice based on their particular circumstances from an independent tax professional. The information herein (other than disclosure information relating to BofA) was obtained from various sources and we do not guarantee its accuracy. This report may contain links to third-party websites. BofA is not responsible for the content of any third-party website or any linked content contained in a third party website. Content contained on such third-party websites is not part of this report and is not incorporated by reference into this report. The inclusion of a link in this report does not imply any endorsement by or any affiliation with BofA. Access to any third-party website is at your own risk, and you should always review the terms and privacy policies at third-party websites before submitting any personal information to them. BofA is not responsible for such terms and privacy policies and expressly disclaims any liability for them. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. [Prices also are subject to change without notice] [Young Yoon, can you confirm that we can delete this given that it is economic only and will not have prices of any security]. BANA is under no obligation to update this report; therefore you should assume that BANA will not update any fact, circumstance or opinion contained in this report. Neither BofA nor any officer or employee of BofA accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents
GRI 2009 A NEW BEGINNING North American Investors and Developers in Real Estate USA

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Gri2009 u keynote

  • 1. GRI 2009 A NEW BEGINNING North American Investors and Developers in Real Estate USA
  • 2. 2009 Economic and Financial Outlook Mickey D. Levy USA GRI New York, NY February 26, 2009
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. Long Trends in Home Ownership Source: Census Bureau
  • 7. The Rise in Indebtedness (percent of GDP) Source: Flow of Funds
  • 8. The Composition of the Rise in Indebtedness Source: Flow of Funds/BEA/Bank of America calculations
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 15. Corporate Operating Profits as a Share of GDP Note: Profits before tax with IVA and CCA
  • 16.
  • 17. New and Existing Single-Family Home Sales
  • 18. Housing Inventories: New and Existing Homes
  • 22. Real Exports and Imports
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25. US Fed Monetary Base (reserves plus currency)
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29. Federal Funds Rate and 10-Year Treasury Bond
  • 30. Ten Year Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield Spread
  • 31. Important Disclosures โ€œ BANAโ€ refers to Bank of America, N.A. โ€œBofAโ€ includes BANA, Banc of America Securities LLC (โ€œBASโ€), Bank of America Securities Investments Inc. Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated (โ€œMLPF&Sโ€) and their respective affiliates. Individuals indentified as BANA economists are not and do not function as research analysts under U.S. law and reports prepared by them are not research reports under applicable U.S. rules and regulations. The views expressed in this report are those of the BANA economists. BANA economists are not part of the Banc of America Securities LLC- Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated Research Department (โ€œBAS-ML Research โ€) and this report is not a product of or distributed by BAS-ML Research. The views and opinions expressed herein may differ from the views and opinions expressed by BAS-ML research analysts and other BofA business units, and BANA is under no obligation to bring such other views or opinions to the attention of any receipient of this report.. BANA economists provide economic advice and information generally to the finance, treasury, risk-management and asset-liability functions within BANA, as well as to other businesses within BANA and its affiliates, and may have previously expressed some or all of the views reflected in this report to these one or more of these businesses within BANA. [Mickey, should we be contemplating that this report will be distributed in the UK or elsewhere- if so, we need to confirm the rules re BANA distribution in those jurisdictions- in particular the FSA requirements] This report is distributed electronically via email and hard copy by BANA to internal and external recipients in the United States, General Investment Related Disclosures : This research report provides general information only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instrument or any derivative related to such securities or instruments (e.g., options, futures, warrants, and contracts for differences). This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies based on general economic matters discussed in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Any decision to purchase or subscribe for securities in any offering must be based solely on existing public information on such security or the information in the prospectus or other offering document issued in connection with such offering and not on this report. You should assume that asset classes that might be mentioned in this report, and securities or other financial instruments related to such asset classes or otherwise recommended, offered or sold by BofA, are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution (including, BANA). Investments in general and, derivatives, in particular, involve numerous risks, including, among others, market risk, counterparty default risk and liquidity risk. No security, financial instrument or derivative is suitable for all investors. In some cases, securities and other financial instruments may be difficult to value or sell and reliable information about the value or risks related to the security or financial instrument may be difficult to obtain. Investors should note that income from such securities and other financial instruments, if any, may fluctuate and that price or value of such securities and instruments may rise or fall and, in some cases, investors may lose their entire principal investment. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Levels and basis for taxation may change. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or financial instrument mentioned in this report. Investors in such securities and instruments, including ADRs, effectively assume currency risk. BofA is a regular issuer of traded financial instruments linked to securities that may be impacted by economic developments discussed in this report. BofA may, at any time, hold a trading position (long or short) in the securities and financial instruments that may be impacted by economic developments discussed in this report. .
  • 32. Copyright, User Agreement and other general information related to this report: Copyright 2009 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved. This report is prepared for the use of BAN clients and may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of BANA. BANA reports are distributed via email and in hard copy by BANA and are not publicly-available materials. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this report constitutes your agreement not to redistribute, retransmit, or disclose to others the contents, opinions, conclusion, or information contained in this report (including any investment recommendations, estimates or price targets) without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of BofA. Materials prepared by BANA personnel are based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of BANA, including investment banking personnel. To the extent this report discusses any law, regulation, legal proceeding or issues, it has not been prepared as nor is it intended to express any legal conclusion, opinion or advice. Investors should consult their own legal advisers as to issues of law relating to the subject matter of this report. The author of this report knowledge of legal proceedings in which any BofA entity and/or its directors, officers and employees may be plaintiffs, defendants, co-defendants or co-plaintiffs with or involving companies mentioned in this report is based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material that relate to any such proceedings have not been reviewed by, discussed with, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of BofA in connection with the legal proceedings or matters relevant to such proceedings. This report has been prepared independently of any issuer of securities mentioned herein and not in connection with any proposed offering of securities or as agent of any issuer of any securities. None of BofA or their personnel has any authority whatsoever to make any representation or warranty on behalf of the issuer(s). Any information relating to the tax status of financial instruments discussed herein is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. Investors are urged to seek tax advice based on their particular circumstances from an independent tax professional. The information herein (other than disclosure information relating to BofA) was obtained from various sources and we do not guarantee its accuracy. This report may contain links to third-party websites. BofA is not responsible for the content of any third-party website or any linked content contained in a third party website. Content contained on such third-party websites is not part of this report and is not incorporated by reference into this report. The inclusion of a link in this report does not imply any endorsement by or any affiliation with BofA. Access to any third-party website is at your own risk, and you should always review the terms and privacy policies at third-party websites before submitting any personal information to them. BofA is not responsible for such terms and privacy policies and expressly disclaims any liability for them. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. [Prices also are subject to change without notice] [Young Yoon, can you confirm that we can delete this given that it is economic only and will not have prices of any security]. BANA is under no obligation to update this report; therefore you should assume that BANA will not update any fact, circumstance or opinion contained in this report. Neither BofA nor any officer or employee of BofA accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents
  • 33. GRI 2009 A NEW BEGINNING North American Investors and Developers in Real Estate USA