Product Managementthrough theUps and Downsof a Cyclical IndustryRay MartinSr. Director, Product MarketingAsyst Technologie...
In 1593, tulips were first broughtfrom Turkey to Holland.              SVPMA Dec 7, 2005      2
The market                    flourished.                    But, in 1637,                      the tulip                 ...
Many traded their             entire estate for a                single tulip.            They found out the           tul...
Agenda• Introduction• Product Management  Communication Enhancement• Analyzing Cyclicality• Guidelines for Product Manager...
Asyst Technologies Inc.    Introduction     Founded 1984     Revenues of ~$600M     850 employees     Provides automation ...
The Asyst Solution     For a modern Wafer Fabrication Facility           Isolation           Systems                      ...
Major End User Customers                                  Silterra8              SVPMA Dec 7, 2005
Major OEM Customers9             SVPMA Dec 7, 2005
Product Management     Communication Enhancement10               SVPMA Dec 7, 2005
Analyzing CyclicalitySomecycles arepredictable.                    SVPMA Dec 7, 2005   11
Some cycles are simple       SVPMA Dec 7, 2005   12
Combinations                    of cycles are                        more                      complex:SVPMA Dec 7, 2005  ...
There are technology cycles                       Moore’s Law                          SVPMA Dec 7, 2005   14Source: Ron L...
There is a Technology Adoption Cycle                    Pragmatists:                       Conservatives:                S...
The Chasm                                  Main Street                Tornado  Early  Market                Chasm         ...
There are Business CyclesSemiconductor Cycles 1973 - 2005                 SVPMA Dec 7, 2005                      17     So...
There are major trends                Population: 1750 - 2150Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 1998 ...
And there are Rogue Waves                                 Rare photo of                                 a Rogue Wave      ...
Guidelines for Product Managers1. Understand the cycles affecting your industry2. Understand the major trends affecting yo...
1. Understand the cycles and   your customers’ needs          SVPMA Dec 7, 2005    21
Semiconductor Industry Cycles           SVPMA Dec 7, 2005    22
Observations of Semiconductor          Industry Cycles• The Chip Industry cycles overshoot Electronic End  Equipment Cycle...
Semiconductor Cycles 1973 - 2005            SVPMA Dec 7, 2005   24
Global Semiconductor Revenue                  Jan-01 to Jul-05Billions of USD                     SVPMA Dec 7, 2005   25
Wafer Fab Equipment Orders         SVPMA Dec 7, 2005   26
Economy vs. Performance Model                                 Hi    Your Company’s Performance                            ...
2. Understand the major trends    affecting your industry           SVPMA Dec 7, 2005     28
Major Trends affecting Telecom"This may be the most exciting period in the  history of the telecommunications industry." -...
The Five Competitive Forces Model  Source: Michael E. Porters 1980 book “Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing  I...
3. Choose the Best Products &    Take Pets to the Pound           SVPMA Dec 7, 2005    31
4. Create alignment in your       organization         SVPMA Dec 7, 2005    32
5. Spend the time   to forecast well.     SVPMA Dec 7, 2005   33
Useful forecasting tools                          • Signs point to yes. Tasseography                          • Yes.    Th...
Spend time to forecast:       Find & Watch Leading Indicators                              Equipment and IC Book to Bill2....
IC Unit Shipment Trend       SVPMA Dec 7, 2005   36
6.Diversify into counter-cyclical           industries            SVPMA Dec 7, 2005       37
Performance of a highly cyclical and a non-cyclical company            SVPMA Dec 7, 2005      38
7. Unseat an incumbent       SVPMA Dec 7, 2005   39
Look for windows of opportunityto unseat an incumbent                SVPMA Dec 7, 2005   40
8. Manage mergers &acquisitions effectively        SVPMA Dec 7, 2005   41
9. Design simple processes that        survive turmoil           SVPMA Dec 7, 2005      42
The Copy Exactly! ProcessHelps Fabs Climb the Yield Curve Faster               SVPMA Dec 7, 2005                      43  ...
10. Be proactive with headcount         management           SVPMA Dec 7, 2005      44
11. Outsource intelligently    to respond quickly    to ups and downs         SVPMA Dec 7, 2005    45
Outsource Intelligently:• Freeze the product prior to transfer and  create complete documentation  – Don’t rely on tribal ...
Summary & Conclusion1. Understand the cycles affecting your industry2. Understand the major trends affecting your industry...
Thank you SVPMA Dec 7, 2005   48
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Product Management Through the Ups and Downs of a Cyclical Industry

194
-1

Published on

Product Management Through the Ups and Downs of a Cyclical Industry by
Ray Martin at SVPMA Monthly Event December 2005

Published in: Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
194
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Product Management Through the Ups and Downs of a Cyclical Industry

  1. 1. Product Managementthrough theUps and Downsof a Cyclical IndustryRay MartinSr. Director, Product MarketingAsyst Technologies, Inc SVPMA Dec 7, 2005
  2. 2. In 1593, tulips were first broughtfrom Turkey to Holland. SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 2
  3. 3. The market flourished. But, in 1637, the tulip market suffered a correctionSVPMA Dec 7, 2005 3
  4. 4. Many traded their entire estate for a single tulip. They found out the tulip was only worth the price of an onion.SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 4
  5. 5. Agenda• Introduction• Product Management Communication Enhancement• Analyzing Cyclicality• Guidelines for Product Managers SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 5
  6. 6. Asyst Technologies Inc. Introduction Founded 1984 Revenues of ~$600M 850 employees Provides automation solutions optimized for the needs of our global customers in the semiconductor, flat panel display, and related industries.6 SVPMA Dec 7, 2005
  7. 7. The Asyst Solution For a modern Wafer Fabrication Facility Isolation Systems RFID-based Asset ManagementAutomated Transport Connectivityand Loading System Software Substrate- Handling Robotics 7 SVPMA Dec 7, 2005
  8. 8. Major End User Customers Silterra8 SVPMA Dec 7, 2005
  9. 9. Major OEM Customers9 SVPMA Dec 7, 2005
  10. 10. Product Management Communication Enhancement10 SVPMA Dec 7, 2005
  11. 11. Analyzing CyclicalitySomecycles arepredictable. SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 11
  12. 12. Some cycles are simple SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 12
  13. 13. Combinations of cycles are more complex:SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 13
  14. 14. There are technology cycles Moore’s Law SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 14Source: Ron Leckie, Infrastructure
  15. 15. There is a Technology Adoption Cycle Pragmatists: Conservatives: Stick with the herd! Hold on! Visionaries: Get ahead of the herd! Skeptics: No way!Techies: Try it! Innovators Early Early Majority Late Majority Laggards Adopters Pragmatists create the dynamics of high-tech market development SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 15Source: Geoffrey Moore, Crossing the Chasm
  16. 16. The Chasm Main Street Tornado Early Market Chasm Bowling Alley Innovation strategy changes at each stage SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 16Source: Geoffrey Moore, Crossing the Chasm
  17. 17. There are Business CyclesSemiconductor Cycles 1973 - 2005 SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 17 Source: Infrastructure Advisors Copyright 2005
  18. 18. There are major trends Population: 1750 - 2150Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision; SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 18
  19. 19. And there are Rogue Waves Rare photo of a Rogue Wave On an oil freighter off the coast of Durban, South Africa This wave is about 35 feet high SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 19
  20. 20. Guidelines for Product Managers1. Understand the cycles affecting your industry2. Understand the major trends affecting your industry3. Choose the Best Products and Take Pets to the Pound4. Create Alignment in the organization5. Spend the time to forecast well6. Diversify into counter-cyclical industries7. Unseat an incumbent8. Manage mergers & acquisitions effectively9. Design simple processes that survive turmoil10. Be proactive with headcount management11. Outsource intelligently to respond to ups & downs SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 20
  21. 21. 1. Understand the cycles and your customers’ needs SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 21
  22. 22. Semiconductor Industry Cycles SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 22
  23. 23. Observations of Semiconductor Industry Cycles• The Chip Industry cycles overshoot Electronic End Equipment Cycles• Chip Industry cyclicality drives greater cyclicality in Semiconductor Equipment• The Semiconductor Equipment Industry gets whipped by the Changes in the Chip Industry• “Rogue Waves” randomly occur – 1973 Gas Crisis – 1982 Gas Crisis – First Gulf War (1991) – Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 – Y2K – Internet Bubble – September 11, 2001 SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 23
  24. 24. Semiconductor Cycles 1973 - 2005 SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 24
  25. 25. Global Semiconductor Revenue Jan-01 to Jul-05Billions of USD SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 25
  26. 26. Wafer Fab Equipment Orders SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 26
  27. 27. Economy vs. Performance Model Hi Your Company’s Performance Silver Gold Medal Medal Bronze Medal Low Low Hi The Economy’s Performance SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 27 Source: Paraphrased from Andy Grove, Intel
  28. 28. 2. Understand the major trends affecting your industry SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 28
  29. 29. Major Trends affecting Telecom"This may be the most exciting period in the history of the telecommunications industry." - Paul Johnson, Analyst• Convergence• The fiber optic revolution• From analog to digital• Bundling of services• The importance of data• The broadband opportunity• Domestic regulatory changes• International regulatory changes SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 29
  30. 30. The Five Competitive Forces Model Source: Michael E. Porters 1980 book “Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 30
  31. 31. 3. Choose the Best Products & Take Pets to the Pound SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 31
  32. 32. 4. Create alignment in your organization SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 32
  33. 33. 5. Spend the time to forecast well. SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 33
  34. 34. Useful forecasting tools • Signs point to yes. Tasseography • Yes. The Art of • Reply hazy, try again.Reading Tea Leaves • Without a doubt. • My sources say no. • As I see it, yes. • You may rely on it. • Concentrate and ask again. • Outlook not so good. There are • It is decidedly so. two types of • Better not tell you now. . Forecasts SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 34
  35. 35. Spend time to forecast: Find & Watch Leading Indicators Equipment and IC Book to Bill2.502.25 Equipment B:B2.00 IC B:B1.751.501.251.000.750.500.250.00 RESTRICTED DATA : for access and use only within your company, as per your companys agreement with VLSI Research Inc. Reprinted with permission of VLSI Research Copyright © 2005 by VLSI RESEARCH INC. A ll rights reserved. SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 35
  36. 36. IC Unit Shipment Trend SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 36
  37. 37. 6.Diversify into counter-cyclical industries SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 37
  38. 38. Performance of a highly cyclical and a non-cyclical company SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 38
  39. 39. 7. Unseat an incumbent SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 39
  40. 40. Look for windows of opportunityto unseat an incumbent SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 40
  41. 41. 8. Manage mergers &acquisitions effectively SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 41
  42. 42. 9. Design simple processes that survive turmoil SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 42
  43. 43. The Copy Exactly! ProcessHelps Fabs Climb the Yield Curve Faster SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 43 Source: Intel website
  44. 44. 10. Be proactive with headcount management SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 44
  45. 45. 11. Outsource intelligently to respond quickly to ups and downs SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 45
  46. 46. Outsource Intelligently:• Freeze the product prior to transfer and create complete documentation – Don’t rely on tribal knowledge• Documentation for ESL – English as Second Language• Configure the product appropriately – Customer Requirements evolve – Configure for Cost Reduction – Regulatory Requirements SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 46
  47. 47. Summary & Conclusion1. Understand the cycles affecting your industry2. Understand the major trends affecting your industry3. Choose the Best Products and Take Pets to the Pound4. Create Alignment in the organization5. Spend the time to forecast well6. Diversify into counter-cyclical industries7. Unseat an incumbent8. Manage mergers & acquisitions effectively9. Design simple processes that survive turmoil10.Be proactive with headcount management11.Outsource intelligently to respond to ups & downs SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 47
  48. 48. Thank you SVPMA Dec 7, 2005 48

×