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    Lfl presentation Lfl presentation Presentation Transcript

    • Seamus Sullivan (LFL)
    • The Company Recommendation: Buy Price Target - $21.11 Current Price 15.68 52-week range 25.15 – 11.50 Shares outstanding 545MM Market Cap 8,619.7MM P/E (2013) N/A EV/EBITDA (2013) 8.9x
    • Company Profile • Founded 1929 • Headquarters: Santiago, Chile • Enrique Cueto, CEO • Operates in approximately 27 countries • 52,000 employees • Sector: Airlines LATAM is the largest airline group in South America. Founded in 1929 the current LATAM management and controlling shareholders acquired control of LAN Chile in 1994. After restoring stability, management began acquiring and fixing airlines across South America. By the time LAN acquired TAM, it already had separate airlines, separate for regulatory reasons, based in Chile, Peru, Argentina, Ecuador, and Colombia, all now operating under the LAN brand and all acquired and successfully integrated by the current LAN management. • LATAM is one of the largest airline groups in the world in terms of network connections, providing passenger transport services to about 135 destinations in 22 countries and cargo services to about 144 destinations in 27 countries, with a fleet of 328 aircraft.
    • Investment Thesis • Industry Leader • Industry Consolidation • Merger Synergies • CASK* Reduction • Fleet Capacity Reduction and Yield Improvement • Improvement in RASK** • Macro Tailwinds • Capital Structure Improvements – Rights offering to raise equity (~$750-1,000MM) • Shareholder Alignment * Cost per Available Seat Kilometer ** Revenue per Available Seat Kilometer
    • Industry Leader Passenger operations • Domestic Brazil: – ~33% of LATAM passenger capacity – 43.7% total domestic brazil market share • International – ~35% of LATAM passenger capacity – Within South America LATAM has international capacity share of 54.9% • Spanish Speaking Countries (SSC): LAN Chile, LAN Peru, LAN Ecuador, LAN Argentina, and LAN Columbia – ~32% LATAM passenger capacity – Largest carrier in Chile, Peru, and Ecuador – Second largest in Columbia and Argentina LAN is a leader in the Latin America Market South American operations ranked by capacity to/from/within South America, as of 10/11/13
    • Industry Consolidation Passenger (Domestic) Market Share by Airline/Region in % Key M&A In Latin America
    • Merger Synergies • LATAM expects to achieve $600-700M in merger synergies by 2016 LATAM Estimated Synergies In US$mn, unless otherwise stated
    • • Even if merger synergies are half ($300-350MM) of what is expected, LATAM is still trading below its intrinsic valuation • Operational improvements to domestic TAM are not included within merger synergy guidance – Capacity cuts in 3Q13 drove RASK up 19% from 3Q12 levels Merger Synergies Domestic Brazil: Successful turnaround
    • • Fuel costs are ~ 35% of LFL costs • I believe we are at a turning point in the 30yr secular bull market in oil for the following reasons: – Technological advances in the energy sector (specifically E&P) – Highest level of oil production in U.S. history (future supply to outpace demand) – Iran and Libya can’t get much worse in terms of impact in lack of production – Further innovation in battery/electric (car) technology • Each car replaced today with a new car is 25% more efficient in terms of oil consumption • Airlines have adapted to be profitable with $102 per barrel in oil • Despite producing ~80% of aviation fuel domestically (Brazil), Petrobras prices aviation fuel based on prices in Houston (USA) and adjusts these by an import tariff. This practice leads to higher fuel prices but also makes Brazilian airlines fuel costs much more tied to USA oil prices CASK Reduction Cost Breakdown in % Fuel Price Evolution in R$/liter
    • • LATAM has decided to reduce fleet commitments between 2013 and 2015 to approximately $1.1bn. This reduction represents a 17% decrease from the combined fleet plan at the time of the merger. • The updated fleet plan allows for flexibility to adjust capacity between 3.0-6.0% per year in 2014 and 2015 • Modernization of fleet (new efficient aircraft expected to reduce unit costs by ~10%) Fleet Capacity Reduction LATAM Airlines Group: Diversified passenger capacity growth
    • • LATAM has reduced total employees by .7% September 2013 vs. December 2012 – As a result, wages decreased 3.6% over the same time period • Potential improvements in Ancillary revenue opportunities • Q3 revenue trends within domestic Brazil improved significantly from year ago levels and suggest management is continuing to be proactive in restructuring the domestic Brazil. Capacity reductions in domestic Brazil drove improved load factors and improved domestic Brazil RASK of 14% vs. a year ago LATAM Airlines Group: Diversified passenger capacity growth Improvement in RASK Labor Costs as % of Total Costs
    • • Reduction in oil prices will spur disposable income – Airlines are significantly exposed to per capita GDP – Increasing real wages and greater formalization rates will allow many Brazilians to travel more • Brazilian airport capacity improvement – Currently only 13 (65%) of the 20 main airports are operating at full capacity – R$25-30bn in investments are going to be made in the sector. ~R$7bn will be deployed through 2010-2014 in preparation of the 2014 World Cup and Summer Olympics 2016 Travel Expenses by Social Class, 2002-12 In R$ bn Travel Intentions by Social Class, 2012 In mn people Macro Tailwinds Bus vs. Plane Passengers In mn passengers
    • • 62MM share rights offering – Shareholders/Management, which own ~40% of the shares outstanding pre-agreed to purchase up to half of the 62MM shares – Total raise (~$1 billion) will be used to: • 50% pre-pay short-term financial liabilities, improve equity and liquidity • 50% to replace older and less efficient aircraft • Goal towards reestablishing investment grade status – LAN held investment grade prior to TAM acquisition – LATAM has stated that cash flows will be used to pay down debt – Each 100bps reduction in cost of debt would increase EPS ~20% • LATAM has reduced debt exposure to the Brazilian Real from US$4.1 billion on June 30, 2012 to US$2.1 billion 3Q13 and expects to further reduce it to US$1.6 billion by the end of 2013 and to eliminate this exposure by June 2014 • Current Debt/EBITDAR declined from 6.3x in December 2012 to 5.8x in September 2013 • Liquidity position improved from 8.5% in December 2012 to 13.2% in September 2013 Capital Structure Improvement
    • Shareholder alignment • The Cueto Group is entitled to elect three of the nine members of our board of directors and is in a position to direct the management of the Company • In addition to these shareholders, there are two other major shareholder groups. Bethia Group, which includes LATAM director Carlos Heller Solari, and the Eblen Group, which includes LATAM director Ramón Eblen Cádiz • Significant ownership (~40%) is concentrated within the controlling shareholders of LAN and TAM Latest Holders Holder Common Stock Equivalent Held % Of CSO Costa Verde Aeronautica SA (SNSE:CVA) 111,901,866 23.142 Includes: Mr. Jan Jose Cueto Plaza (Director) Mr. Ignacio Cueto Plaza (CEO LAN) Mr. Enrique Cueto Plaza (CEO LATAM) Tep Chile S. A. 65,554,075 13.557 Bethia S.A. 13,152,718 2.72 Includes: Heller Solari (Director) 6.24% Betlan Dos S.A. 13,152,516 2.72 Banchile E. C. De B.S.A. 10,314,524 2.133 Eblen Kadis, Ramón (Director, Member of Directors Committee, Member of Leadership Committee and Member of Brand, Product & Frequent Flyer Program Committee) 9,489,354 1.962 Cueto Group 4,058,181 0.839 de la Fuente Goic, Alejandro (Former Chief Financial Officer) 70,000 0.014 Valdivieso Montes, Armando (Senior Vice-President of Passenger Business-Spanish Speaking Countries) 59,704 0.012
    • • Crude oil and jet fuel prices increase • Regulatory risks • Economic headline risk • Currency fluctuations • Aircraft accident • Merger implementation and synergy issues Risks
    • My view is based on the fact that airlines have been benefiting from some of the lowest borrowing costs since the1960s as debt investors have a better understanding or appreciation for the financial improvement and significant structural change in the airline industry such as: • Consolidation • Rising barriers to entry • Improving mix in variable vs. fixed costs • Capacity reduction This view has been supported by upgrades of airline credit ratings by the credit agencies over the prior 12 months. In conjunction with the aforementioned tailwind, I believe the longer-term reduction in operating costs will be driven by: • Lower fuel costs • Employee count reduction • More fuel efficient aircraft • Broader improvement in GDP per capita in SSC and Brazil The airline market shows a high correlation to GDP per capita. As income increases, so does disposable income and the consumption of “non-essential” goods such as air travel. Why Now?
    • $0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00 $14.00 $16.00 $18.00 $20.00 $22.00 $24.00 $26.00 $28.00 $30.00 $32.00 $34.00 StockPrice LATAM Airlines Risk Reward Close Price Target $25.00 (+59%) $21.11 (+35%) $12.00 (-23.5%)
    • Financials x Enterprise Value Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate Cumulative Present Value of FCF $2,798.0 Enterprise Value $19,558.6 Terminal Year Free Cash Flow (2017E) $884.0 Less: Total Debt (9,854.4) WACC 6.9% Less: Preferred Securities - Terminal Value $23,427.8 Terminal Year EBITDA (2017E) $2,928.5 Less: Noncontrolling Interest Exit Multiple 8x Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 1,800.0 Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate 6.4% Terminal Value $23,427.8 Discount Factor 0.72 Implied Equity Value $11,504.2 Implied EV/EBITDA Present Value of Terminal Value $16,760.5 Enterprise Value $19,558.6 % of Enterprise Value 85.7% Number of Shares 545.0 LTM 10/31/2013 EBITDA 1,185.4 Enterprise Value $19,558.6 Implied Share Price $21.11 Implied EV/EBITDA 16.5x Terminal Value Implied Equity Value and Share Price Assumptions xSales (% growth) NA 24.8% 203.2% (0.7%) 2.4% 2.9% 1.5% 2.0% 1.4% COGS (% sales) 71.7% 68.6% 72.6% 78.1% 74.3% 72.3% 71.7% 71.3% 70.1% SG&A (% sales) 17.0% 16.2% 11.5% 12.9% 11.5% 10.3% 10.2% 10.0% 9.8% Depreciation & Amortization (% sales) 8.4% 6.8% 8.4% 8.2% 7.8% 7.5% 7.4% 7.2% 7.1% Capital Expenditures (% sales) 15.3% 23.4% 10.3% 18.1% 11.0% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% Tax Rate 35.0% 34.0% 34.0% 32.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% Working Capital (% sales) (5.0%) (5.0%) (5.0%) (5.0%) (4.9%) LATAMLATAM Discounted Cash Flow Analysis ($ in millions, fiscal year ending March 30) Operating Scenario Base Operating Scenario 1 xMid-Year Convention N Historical Period CAGR CAGR 2009 2010 2011 ('09 - '11) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ('13 - '17) Sales $3,519.2 $4,390.5 $13,311.0 94.5% $13,222.0 $13,537.0 $13,926.0 $14,134.2 $14,423.6 $14,631.7 2.0% % growth NA 24.8% 203.2% (0.7%) 2.4% 2.9% 1.5% 2.0% 1.4% COGS 2,522.8 3,012.7 9,658.0 10,332.1 10,062.8 10,062.7 10,137.6 10,282.6 10,263.2 Gross Profit $996.4 $1,377.8 $3,653.0 91.5% $2,889.9 $3,474.2 $3,863.2 $3,996.6 $4,141.0 $4,368.5 5.9% % margin 28.3% 31.4% 27.4% 21.9% 25.7% 27.7% 28.3% 28.7% 29.9% SG&A 596.6 712.5 1,526.3 1,711.6 1,557.2 1,435.0 1,435.8 1,440.0 1,440.0 EBITDA $399.8 $665.3 $2,126.7 130.6% $1,178.3 $1,917.0 $2,428.2 $2,560.8 $2,701.0 $2,928.5 11.2% % margin 11.4% 15.2% 16.0% 8.9% 14.2% 17.4% 18.1% 18.7% 20.0% Depreciation & Amortization 295.9 296.6 1,116.0 1,087.0 1,061.8 1,040.0 1,040.0 1,040.0 1,040.0 EBIT $103.9 $368.7 $1,010.6 211.8% $91.3 $855.2 $1,388.3 $1,520.8 $1,661.0 $1,888.4 21.9% % margin 3.0% 8.4% 7.6% 0.7% 6.3% 10.0% 10.8% 11.5% 12.9% Taxes 36.4 125.4 343.6 29.2 299.3 485.9 532.3 581.4 660.9 EBIAT $67.6 $243.4 $667.0 214.2% $62.1 $555.9 $902.4 $988.5 $1,079.7 $1,227.5 21.9% Plus: Depreciation & Amortization 295.9 296.6 1,116.0 1,087.0 1,061.8 1,040.0 1,040.0 1,040.0 1,040.0 Less: Capital Expenditures (538.6) (1,029.2) (1,367.0) (2,389.4) (1,489.1) (1,323.0) (1,342.7) (1,370.2) (1,390.0) Less: Increase in Net Working Capital 364.8 12.9 8.6 13.0 6.4 Unlevered Free Cash Flow $493.4 $632.3 $694.4 $762.4 $884.0 WACC 6.9% Discount Period 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Discount Factor 0.94 0.87 0.82 0.76 0.72 Present Value of Free Cash Flow $461.4 $553.0 $568.0 $583.2 $632.4 Projection Period * * Pro Forma consolidated numbers *
    • Summary • Largest and most diversified South American Airline • Industry Consolidation • Merger Synergies • CASK Reduction • Fleet Capacity Reduction and Yield Improvement • Improvement in RASK • Macro Tailwinds • Capital Structure Improvements – Rights offering to raise equity (~$750-1,000MM) • Positive management and shareholder alignment. Management owns ~40% of outstanding shares
    • Appendix
    • Income Statement LATAM Airlines Group S.A. Consolidated Pro Forma Income Statement (in thousands of US Dollars) 2011 2012 2013E 1Q14E 2Q14E 3Q14E 4Q14E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Revenue Net Passenger Revenue 10960.7 11017.0 11255.2 2984.5 2667.9 2912.4 3012.0 11576.8 11781.1 12030.2 12197.3 Net Cargo Revenue 2067.6 1939.8 1942.4 492.1 479.5 495.2 542.5 2009.2 2013.1 2053.4 2094.4 Other 283.0 265.4 339.5 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 340.0 340.0 340.0 340.0 Total Operating Revenues 13311.3 13222.1 13537.0 3561.6 3232.4 3492.6 3639.4 13926.0 14134.2 14423.6 14631.7 2.01% EXPENSES Wages and Benefits 2508.4 2596.3 2594.8 701.8 669.8 684.9 679.3 2735.9 2791.4 2847.2 2904.1 Aircraft fuel 4244.8 4780.3 4458.1 1117.7 1052.9 1079.1 1030.1 4279.8 4280.4 4316.4 4185.6 Commissions to agents 462.9 417.1 378.6 105.3 95.7 95.9 103.7 400.5 418.7 427.1 435.6 Depreciation and Amortization 1116.0 1087.0 1061.8 260.0 260.0 260.0 260.0 1040.0 1040.0 1040.0 1040.0 Other Rental and Landing Fees 1357.2 1377.1 1412.5 365.0 331.7 356.1 371.9 1424.7 1451.5 1480.5 1510.1 Passenger Services 336.2 314.9 342.0 87.7 79.7 85.6 89.4 342.5 348.9 355.9 363.0 Aircraft Rentals 400.3 422.0 399.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 400.0 400.0 400.0 400.0 Aircraft maintenance 348.2 424.4 477.5 122.8 111.6 119.9 125.1 479.5 446.6 455.5 464.7 Other Operating Expenses 1526.3 1711.6 1557.2 340.0 350.0 385.0 360.0 1435.0 1435.8 1440.0 1440.0 Total Operating Expenses 12300.4 13130.7 12681.7 3200.3 3051.6 3166.5 3119.5 12537.8 12613.3 12762.6 12743.2 Operating Income (Loss) 1,010.9 91.4 855.3 361.3 180.8 326.2 520.0 1,388.2 1,520.9 1,661.0 1,888.6 Operating Margin 7.6% 0.7% 6.3% 10.1% 5.6% 9.3% 14.3% 10.0% 10.8% 11.5% 12.9% EBITDA 2,127.0 1,178.4 1,917.1 621.3 440.8 586.2 780.0 2,428.2 2,560.9 2,701.0 2,928.6 EBITDAR 2,527.3 1,600.4 2,316.3 721.3 540.8 686.2 880.0 2,828.2 2,960.9 3,101.0 3,328.6 Other Income (Expense) Interest Income 160.6 117.2 60.7 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 44.0 44.0 40.0 23.9 Interest Expense -452.6 -444.2 -445.4 -109.0 -109.0 -109.0 -109.0 -436.0 -432.0 -428.0 -420.0 Others Income/(Expense) -558.2 -328.9 -349.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total -850.2 -655.9 -733.7 -98.0 -98.0 -98.0 -98.0 -392.0 -388.0 -388.0 -396.1 Profit Before Tax & Minority Interest 160.7 -564.5 121.5 263.3 82.8 228.2 422.0 996.2 1132.9 1273.0 1492.4 Income Tax Expense 71.1 -69.7 91.1 92.2 29.0 79.9 147.7 348.7 399.3 445.5 522.4 Profit Before Minority Interest 89.6 -494.9 30.4 171.2 53.8 148.3 274.3 647.6 733.6 827.4 970.1 Minority Interest 60 26 18 9 3 7 14 32 37 41 49 Net Income 30 (521) 12 163 51 141 261 615 697 786 922 Net Margin 0.2% -3.9% 0.1% 4.6% 1.6% 4.0% 7.2% 4.4% 4.9% 5.4% 6.3% Basic EPS $0.06 ($1.09) $0.02 $0.30 $0.09 $0.26 $0.48 $1.13 $1.28 $1.44 $1.69 Diluted EPS $0.06 ($1.09) $0.02 $0.30 $0.09 $0.26 $0.48 $1.13 $1.28 $1.44 $1.69 Shares O/S (Basic) 474.5 476.3 483.6 545.0 545.0 545.0 545.0 545.0 545.0 545.0 545.0 Shares O/S (Diluted) 474.5 476.3 483.6 545.0 545.0 545.0 545.0 545.0 545.0 545.0 545.0
    • 2011 2012 2013E 1Q14E 2Q14E 3Q14E 4Q14E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Operating Statistics Operating Statistics: Available Seat Kilometers (ASKs) 126,565 132,186 134,456 35,091 31,898 34,244 35,755 136,987 139,568 142,359 145,206 Yr/Yr ASK Increase/(Decrease) 4.4% 1.7% 2.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs) 96,081 103,886 107,725 28,424 26,156 27,737 27,889 110,206 112,701 114,574 116,165 Load Factor 75.9 78.6 80.1 81.0 82.0 81.0 78.0 80.4 80.7 80.5 80 Yield 11.4 10.6 10.4 10.5 10.2 10.5 10.8 10.5 10.5 10.5 PRASK 8.7 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.5 8.4 Yr/Yr PRASK Increase/(Decrease) -3.8% 0.4% 1.9% 4.3% -0.3% -1.6% 1.0% -0.1% 0.1% -0.6% Total RASK 10.5 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.1 Yr/Yr TRASK Increase/(Decrease) -4.9% 0.7% 2.4% 2.8% 0.1% -1.1% 1.0% -0.4% 0.0% -0.5% CASK 9.7 9.9 9.4 9.1 9.6 9.2 8.7 9.2 9.0 9.0 8.8 CASK (ex. Fuel) 6.4 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.3 6.1 5.8 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 Fuel Consumption (gallons) 1,261 1,295 1,293 335 322 330 315 1,302 1,309 1,320 1,254 Fuel Price 337 369 1,378 334 327 327 327 1,315 1,308 1,308 1,256 Gallons/ASK 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Available Ton Kilometers (ATKs) 7,683 7,646 7,855 1,996 1,945 1,986 2,175 8,102 8,264 8,429 8,598 Yr/Yr ATK Increase/(Decrease) -0.5% 2.7% 2.0% 2.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2% Revenue Ton Kilometers (RTKs) 4,598 4,488 4,532 1,158 1,128 1,152 1,262 4,699 4,793 4,889 4,987 Load Factor 59.8 58.7 57.7 58.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 58 58 Yield 45.0 43.2 42.9 42.5 42.5 43.0 43.0 42.8 42 42 Tons Transported 1,165 1,154 1,255 315 315 315 315 1,260 1,260 1,264 1264 Operating Expenses/ASM Wages and Benefits 1.98 1.96 1.93 2.00 2.10 2.00 1.90 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 Aircraft fuel 3.35 3.62 3.32 3.19 3.30 3.15 2.88 3.12 3.07 3.03 2.88 Commissions to agents 0.37 0.32 0.28 0.30 0.30 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.30 Depreciation and Amortization 0.88 0.82 0.79 0.74 0.82 0.76 0.73 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 Other Rental and Landing Fees 1.07 1.04 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 Passenger Services 0.27 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 Aircraft Rentals 0.32 0.32 0.30 0.28 0.31 0.29 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28 Aircraft maintenance 0.28 0.32 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.32 0.32 Other Operating Expenses 1.21 1.29 1.16 0.97 1.10 1.12 1.01 1.05 1.03 1.01 0.99 Total CASM 9.72 9.93 9.43 9.12 9.57 9.25 8.72 9.15 9.04 8.97 8.78 CASM (Ex-fuel) 6.36 6.32 6.12 5.93 6.27 6.10 5.84 6.03 5.97 5.93 5.89 Yr/Yr CASM (Ex-Fuel) Increase/(Decrease) 0.1% 2.7% -8.2% 2.6% 2.2% -4.5% 1.6% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% Operating Margin 8.2% 0.7% 6.7% 11.3% 5.9% 10.3% 16.7% 11.1% 12.1% 13.0% 14.8% Net Margin (Ex-Items) 0.2% -3.9% 0.1% 4.6% 1.6% 4.0% 7.2% 4.4% 4.9% 5.4% 6.3% Minority Interest 66.7% -5.3% 60.6% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Tax Rate 44.3% 12.3% 74.9% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.2% 35.0% 35.0%
    • NWC LATAM Working Capital Projections ($ in millions) Historical Period 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sales $3,519.2 $4,390.5 $13,311.0 $13,222.0 $13,537.0 $13,926.0 $14,134.2 $14,423.6 $14,631.7 Cost of Goods Sold 2,522.8 3,012.7 9,658.0 10,332.1 10,062.8 10,062.9 10,137.6 10,282.7 10,263.3 Current Assets Accounts Receivable 383.5 481.4 532.2 1,441.5 1,298.1 1,335.4 1,355.3 1,383.1 1,403.0 Inventories 46.6 53.2 72.8 181.3 179.2 179.2 180.5 183.1 182.8 Prepaid Expenses and Other 6.0 6.5 8.0 12.6 13.5 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.6 Total Current Assets $436.0 $541.1 $612.9 $1,635.4 $1,490.8 $1,528.5 $1,550.0 $1,580.6 $1,600.4 Current Liabilities Accounts Payable 97.0 134.2 170.5 425.6 413.5 413.5 416.6 422.6 421.8 Accrued Liabilities 338.9 424.0 429.2 1,295.0 1,353.7 1,392.6 1,413.4 1,442.4 1,463.2 Other Current Liabilities 121.4 204.1 142.5 232.6 406.1 417.8 424.0 432.7 439.0 Total Current Liabilities $557.3 $762.4 $742.2 $1,953.2 $2,173.3 $2,223.9 $2,254.1 $2,297.6 $2,323.9 Net Working Capital ($121.2) ($221.3) ($129.3) ($317.8) ($682.5) ($695.4) ($704.1) ($717.0) ($723.5) % sales (3.4%) (5.0%) (1.0%) (2.4%) (5.0%) (5.0%) (5.0%) (5.0%) (4.9%) (Increase) / Decrease in NWC $100.1 ($92.0) $188.5 $364.8 $12.9 $8.6 $13.0 $6.4 Assumptions Days Sales Outstanding 39.8 40.0 14.6 39.8 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 Days Inventory Held 6.7 6.4 2.8 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 Prepaids and Other CA (% of sales) 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Days Payable Outstanding 14.0 16.3 6.4 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 Accrued Liabilities (% of sales) 9.6% 9.7% 3.2% 9.8% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Other Current Liabilities (% of sales) 3.5% 4.6% 1.1% 1.8% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Projection Period
    • WACC LATAM Weighted Average Cost of Capital Analysis ($ in millions) Target Capital Structure Predicted Market Market Debt/ Marginal Unlevered Debt-to-Total Capitalization 55.0% Company Levered Beta Value of Debt Value of Equity Equity Tax Rate Beta Equity-to-Total Capitalization 45.0% Avianca Holdings S.A. (BVC:PFAVH) 1.00 $2,163.20 $2,000.2 108.1% 34.0% 0.58 Copa Holdings SA (NYSE:CPA) 1.10 $1,131.00 $6,669.4 17.0% 34.0% 0.99 GOL Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes S.A. (BOVESPA:GOLL4) 1.02 $2,558.90 $1,402.4 182.5% 34.0% 0.46 Cost of Debt Grupo Aeromexico SAB de CV (BMV:AEROMEX *) 1.00 $590.00 $1,023.3 57.7% 34.0% 0.72 Cost of Debt 6.0% Tax Rate 37.5% - After-tax Cost of Debt 3.8% Mean 1.03 91.3% 0.69 Median 1.01 82.9% 0.65 Cost of Equity Risk-free Rate 2.9% Mean Target Target Market Risk Premium 6.5% Unlevered Debt/ Marginal Relevered Levered Beta 1.22 Beta Equity Tax Rate Beta Size Premium - % Relevered Beta 0.69 122.2% 37.5% 1.22 Cost of Equity 10.8% WACC 6.9% 0.1 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 34.0% 6.7% 6.8% 6.9% 7.0% 7.1% 44.0% 6.5% 6.6% 6.7% 6.9% 7.0% 54.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.6% 6.8% 6.9% 64.0% 6.1% 6.3% 6.5% 6.7% 6.9% 74.0% 5.8% 6.1% 6.3% 6.5% 6.8% Pre-tax Cost of DebtDebt-to-Total Capitalization WACC Calculation Comparable Companies Unlevered Beta ValueCo Relevered Beta WACC Sensitivity Analysis