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Financial Analysis - J.C. Penney Company, Inc., through a subsidiary, operates department stores in the United States and Puerto Rico

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Financial Analysis - J.C. Penney Company, Inc., through a subsidiary, operates department stores in the United States and Puerto Rico

Financial Analysis - J.C. Penney Company, Inc., through a subsidiary, operates department stores in the United States and Puerto Rico

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  • 1. 04.03.2013 Company Analysis - Overview J.C. Penney Company, Inc., through a subsidiary, operates department stores in theTicker: JCP UN JC Penney Co Inc Benchmark: United States and Puerto Rico. The Company provides merchandise and services toCurrency: New York: JCP, Currency: USD S&P 500 INDEX (SPX) consumers through department stores, catalog departments, and the Internet. JCPenney markets primarily family apparel, jewelry, shoes, accessories, and homeSector: Consumer Discretionary Industry: Multiline Retail Year: furnishings.Telephone 1-972-431-1000 Revenue (M) 12985 Business Segments in USD Sales (M) Geographic Segments in USD Sales (M)Website www.jcpenney.com No of Employees #N/A N/A Department Stores 12985 United States 12985Address 6501 Legacy Drive Plano, TX 75024-3698 United StatesShare Price Performance in USDPrice 17.69 1M Return -8.5%52 Week High 39.50 6M Return -31.9%52 Week Low 15.70 52 Wk Return -54.3%52 Wk Beta 1.21 YTD Return -10.2%Credit RatingsBloomberg HY3S&P CCC+ Date 28.02.2013 Outlook NEGMoodys - Date - Outlook NEGFitch B- Date 28.02.2013 Outlook NEGValuation Ratios 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14E 1/15E 1/16EP/E 19.9x 19.3x 59.2x - - - -EV/EBIT 9.4x 9.8x 23.5x - - - -EV/EBITDA 5.4x 6.1x 10.9x - - 16.4x 11.0xP/S 0.3x 0.4x 0.5x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3xP/B 1.2x 1.4x 2.2x 1.4x 1.5x 1.6x 2.3xDiv Yield 3.2% 2.5% 1.9% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100%Profitability Ratios % 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14E 1/15E 1/16EGross Margin 39.4 39.2 36.0 31.3 35.2 36.7 36.4EBITDA Margin 6.6 7.6 5.6 -3.6 -0.6 2.7 3.8Operating Margin 3.8 4.7 2.6 -7.8 -4.1 -1.0 0.5 Department StoresProfit Margin 1.4 2.2 -0.9 -7.6 -3.1 -1.2 -0.3 United StatesReturn on Assets 2.0 3.0 -1.2 -9.3 -6.1 -3.9 -3.1Return on Equity 5.6 7.6 -3.2 -27.4 -16.2 -7.3 -6.0Leverage and Coverage Ratios 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13Current Ratio 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.4 Current Capitalization in USDQuick Ratio 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.4 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 219.3EBIT/Interest 2.5 3.6 2.0 -4.5 Market Capitalization (M) 3881.2Tot Debt/Capital 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 Cash and ST Investments (M) 930.0Tot Debt/Equity 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 Total Debt (M) 2894.0Eff Tax Rate % 38.2 34.9 - - Preferred Equity (M) 0.0 LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0 Investments (M) 0.0 Enterprise Value (M) 5845.2 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 2. Company Analysis - Analysts RatingsJC Penney Co IncTarget price in USDBroker Recommendation Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price Price Brokers Target Price 50 35 100% 18% 17% 16% 16% 14% 14% 15% 15% 45 30 25% 25% 30% 25 80% 36% 40 20 35 15 60% 30 53% 56% 58% 58% 57% 60% 60% 10 62% 25 5 55% 55% 55% 20 40% 50% 0 Telsey Advisory Group Morgan Stanley BMO Capital Markets Maxim Group LLC Barclays Piper Jaffray S&P Capital IQ Atlantic Equities LLP Gilford Securities Macquarie Credit Suisse JPMorgan Oppenheimer & Co Nomura Argus Research Corp EVA Dimensions Northcoast Research Deutsche Bank Buckingham Research Group Robert W. Baird & Co 15 20% 10 29% 28% 26% 26% 29% 25% 25% 24% 20% 20% 5 15% 14% 0% 0 mars.12 avr.12 mai.12 juin.12 juil.12 août.12 sept.12 oct.12 nov.12 déc.12 janv.13 févr.13 Buy Hold Sell Price Target Price Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date 28-Feb-13 14% 50% 36% 4-Mar-13 17.69 18.00 Gilford Securities BERNARD SOSNICK sell 1-Mar-13 31-Jan-13 15% 55% 30% 1-Mar-13 17.69 18.00 Morgan Stanley KIMBERLY GREENBERGER Underwt/Cautious 13.00 28-Feb-13 31-Dec-12 20% 55% 25% 28-Feb-13 17.57 18.00 Argus Research Corp CHRISTOPHER GRAJA buy 25.00 28-Feb-13 30-Nov-12 20% 55% 25% 27-Feb-13 21.16 18.25 Robert W. Baird & Co ERIKA K MASCHMEYER neutral 20.00 28-Feb-13 31-Oct-12 25% 60% 15% 26-Feb-13 21.02 18.40 Macquarie LIZABETH DUNN neutral 19.00 28-Feb-13 28-Sep-12 25% 60% 15% 25-Feb-13 21.51 18.40 Buckingham Research Group DAVID J GLICK neutral 15.00 28-Feb-13 31-Aug-12 24% 62% 14% 22-Feb-13 22.47 18.47 Oppenheimer & Co BRIAN NAGEL outperform 30.00 28-Feb-13 31-Jul-12 29% 57% 14% 21-Feb-13 21.55 18.47 S&P Capital IQ JASON ASAEDA hold 20.00 28-Feb-13 29-Jun-12 26% 58% 16% 20-Feb-13 20.19 18.47 Maxim Group LLC RICK SNYDER sell 10.00 28-Feb-13 31-May-12 26% 58% 16% 19-Feb-13 19.61 18.47 Atlantic Equities LLP DANIELA NEDIALKOVA neutral 22.00 28-Feb-13 30-Apr-12 28% 56% 17% 18-Feb-13 19.80 18.47 Piper Jaffray ALEX J FUHRMAN neutral 16.00 28-Feb-13 30-Mar-12 29% 53% 18% 15-Feb-13 19.80 18.47 Telsey Advisory Group DANA TELSEY no rating system 20.00 28-Feb-13 14-Feb-13 19.94 18.71 Northcoast Research JEFFERY STEIN sell 14.00 28-Feb-13 13-Feb-13 19.61 18.56 Credit Suisse MICHAEL B EXSTEIN underperform 15.00 27-Feb-13 12-Feb-13 19.27 18.94 JPMorgan MATTHEW BOSS neutral 15.00 27-Feb-13 11-Feb-13 19.53 18.94 Barclays ROBERT S DRBUL equalweight 20.00 27-Feb-13 8-Feb-13 19.28 18.94 Deutsche Bank PAUL TRUSSELL hold 17.00 15-Feb-13 7-Feb-13 19.50 18.94 BMO Capital Markets WAYNE HOOD market perform 18.00 7-Feb-13 6-Feb-13 19.38 18.94 EVA Dimensions CRAIG STERLING underweight 15-Jan-13 5-Feb-13 19.81 18.94 Nomura PAUL LEJUEZ neutral 18.00 13-Nov-12 4-Feb-13 19.34 20.06 1-Feb-13 19.88 20.06 31-Jan-13 20.33 20.05 30-Jan-13 20.63 20.05 29-Jan-13 21.01 20.05 28-Jan-13 19.22 20.05 25-Jan-13 19.35 20.05 24-Jan-13 19.12 20.05 23-Jan-13 18.35 20.05 22-Jan-13 18.73 20.05 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 3. 04.03.2013JC Penney Co Inc Company Analysis - Ownership Ownership TypeOwnership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution Geographic Ownership 1%Shares Outstanding (M) 219.3 United States 82.73% 20% 2% 1% 1% 3%Float 64.5% Unknown Country 5.06% 3%Short Interest (M) 59.7 Switzerland 3.11% 3%Short Interest as % of Float 42.24% Britain 2.94%Days to Cover Shorts 7.28 Germany 1.75% 5%Institutional Ownership 132.31% Canada 0.99%Retail Ownership -33.89% Bermuda 0.87%Insider Ownership 1.58% Others 2.55% 79% Institutional Ownership Distribution 82% Investment Advisor 64.49% Hedge Fund Manager 19.21% Other 11.49% United States Unknown Country Switzerland Institutional Ownership Retail Ownership Insider Ownership Pension Fund (Erisa) 1.97% Britain Germany CanadaPricing data is in USD Others 2.84% Bermuda OthersTop 20 Owners: TOP 20 ALL Institutional OwnershipHolder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source CountryPERSHING SQUARE CAPI 39075771 0 691250389 17.81% 03.01.2013 13D UNITED STATES 2% 3%PERSHING SQUARE CAPI 39075771 0 691250389 17.81% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATESVORNADO REALTY TRUST 23400000 0 413946000 10.67% 08.10.2012 13D UNITED STATES 11%DODGE & COX 20225200 -91350 357783788 9.22% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATESSTATE STREET 17912237 -183174 316867473 8.16% 01.03.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATESFMR LLC 15837049 -2098177 280157397 7.22% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATESBLACKROCK 14568513 0 257716995 6.64% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES 19%WELLINGTON MANAGEMEN 13954793 11139515 246860288 6.36% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES 65%HOTCHKIS & WILEY CAP 13877917 4899442 245500352 6.33% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATESEVERCORE TRUST COMPA 11948829 -239556 211374785 5.45% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATESJ C PENNEY PROFIT SH 11699816 0 206969745 5.33% 31.12.2012 13G n/aVANGUARD GROUP INC 9378824 506396 165911397 4.27% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATESUBS 9131960 3226159 161544372 4.16% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGGGLENVIEW CAPITAL MAN 7299112 2841900 129121291 3.33% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES Investment Advisor Hedge Fund Manager Other Pension Fund (Erisa) OthersSASCO CAPITAL INCORP 6418093 -80520 113536065 2.93% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATESDEUTSCHE BANK AG 5179819 125546 91630998 2.36% 31.12.2012 13F GERMANYHSBC HOLDINGS PLC 4548097 1002775 80455836 2.07% 31.12.2012 13F BRITAINORBIS HOLDINGS LIMIT 2718408 -1200182 48088638 1.24% 31.12.2012 13F BERMUDASUSQUEHANNA INTERNAT 2211294 1124663 39117791 1.01% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATESDIMENSIONAL FUND ADV 2180139 -6281 38566659 0.99% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATESTop 5 Insiders:Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date SourceULLMAN III MYRON E 927101 -56148 16400417 0.42% 26.01.2012 Form 4JOHNSON RONALD B 883330 15626108 0.40% 27.01.2012 Form 4KRAMER MICHAEL W 872405 15432844 0.40% 05.12.2012 Form 4TERUEL JAVIER G 158869 856 2810393 0.07% 03.12.2012 Form 4DHILLON JANET L 143794 -4277 2543716 0.07% 18.05.2012 Form 4 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 4. Company Analysis - Financials I/IVJC Penney Co IncFinancial information is in USD (M) Equivalent EstimatesPeriodicity: Fiscal Year 1/03 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14E 1/15E 1/16EIncome StatementRevenue 32347 17786 18096 18781 19903 19860 18486 17556 17759 17260 12985 12665 13169 13808 - Cost of Goods Sold 22573 11166 11107 11405 12078 12189 11571 10646 10799 11042 8919Gross Income 9774 6620 6989 7376 7825 7671 6915 6910 6960 6218 4066 4452 4838 5032 - Selling, General & Admin Expenses 8760 5830 5702 5799 5903 5783 5780 6247 6128 5769 5078 (Research & Dev Costs) 0 0 0 0Operating Income 1014 790 1287 1577 1922 1888 1135 663 832 449 -1012 -522 -138 67 - Interest Expense 388 261 373 280 270 278 268 260 233 228 226 - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) 42 -17 -91 -147 -140 -113 -43 0 18 450 298Pretax Income 584 546 1005 1444 1792 1723 910 403 581 -229 -1536 -673 -458 -299 - Income Tax Expense 213 182 348 467 658 618 343 154 203 -77 -551Income Before XO Items 371 364 657 977 1134 1105 567 249 378 -152 -985 - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax -34 1292 133 -111 -19 -6 -5 -2 -11 0 0 - Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Diluted EPS Before XO Items 1.25 1.21 2.20 3.83 4.96 4.90 2.54 1.07 1.59 (0.70) (4.49)Net Income Adjusted* 256 339 679 925 567 291 397 154 -766 -390 -155 -41EPS Adjusted 0.95 1.21 2.31 3.63 2.54 1.25 1.67 0.70 (3.49) (2.29) (1.06) (0.15)Dividends Per Share 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.72 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 Payout Ratio % 46.8 47.5 23.3 12.8 14.6 16.1 31.3 74.5 50.3Total Shares Outstanding 269 274 271 233 226 222 222 236 237 216 219Diluted Shares Outstanding 293 297 307 255 232 225 223 233 238 217 219EBITDA 1681 1184 1646 1949 2311 2314 1604 1158 1343 967 -469 -74 357 530*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges. Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 5. Company Analysis - Financials II/IVPeriodicity: 1/03 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14E 1/15E 1/16EBalance SheetTotal Current Assets 8353 6513 8232 6702 6648 6751 6220 6652 6370 5081 3683 + Cash & Near Cash Items 2388 2907 4586 2951 2747 2471 2352 3011 2622 1507 930 + Short Term Investments 86 87 63 65 0 0 + Accounts & Notes Receivable 705 233 274 270 263 430 447 0 0 0 0 + Inventories 4945 3156 3142 3210 3400 3641 3259 3024 3213 2916 2341 + Other Current Assets 229 130 167 206 238 209 162 617 535 658 412Total Long-Term Assets 9514 11787 5895 5759 6025 7558 5791 5929 6672 6343 6098 + Long Term Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gross Fixed Assets 8154 5637 5607 5845 6277 7178 7806 8058 8085 8141 Accumulated Depreciation 3253 2122 2032 2097 2115 2219 2439 2701 2854 2965 + Net Fixed Assets 4901 3515 3575 3748 4162 4959 5367 5357 5231 5176 5353 + Other Long Term Assets 4613 8272 2320 2011 1863 2599 424 572 1441 1167 745Total Current Liabilities 4159 3754 3297 2762 3492 3338 2794 3249 2647 2756 2583 + Accounts Payable 3791 2551 1143 1171 1366 1472 1194 1226 1133 1022 1162 + Short Term Borrowings 288 260 459 21 434 203 0 393 0 231 26 + Other Short Term Liabilities 80 943 1695 1570 1692 1663 1600 1630 1514 1503 1395Total Long Term Liabilities 7338 9121 5974 5692 4893 5659 5062 4554 4935 4658 4027 + Long Term Borrowings 4940 5114 3464 3444 3010 3505 3505 2999 3099 2871 2868 + Other Long Term Borrowings 2398 4007 2510 2248 1883 2154 1557 1555 1836 1787 1159Total Liabilities 11497 12875 9271 8454 8385 8997 7856 7803 7582 7414 6610 + Long Preferred Equity 333 304 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Share Capital & APIC 3423 3531 4176 3479 3542 3564 3610 3985 4043 3807 + Retained Earnings & Other Equity 2614 1590 680 528 746 1748 545 793 1417 203 3171Total Shareholders Equity 6370 5425 4856 4007 4288 5312 4155 4778 5460 4010 3171Total Liabilities & Equity 17867 18300 14127 12461 12673 14309 12011 12581 13042 11424 9781Book Value Per Share 22.44 18.69 17.92 17.20 18.97 23.93 18.72 20.25 23.04 18.57 14.46 12.12 10.72 7.54 Tangible Book Value Per Share 12.04 18.54 17.76 17.20 18.97 23.93 18.72 20.25 23.04 18.57 14.46 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 6. Company Analysis - Financials III/IVPeriodicity: 1/03 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14E 1/15E 1/16ECash FlowsNet Income 405 -928 524 1088 1153 1111 572 251 389 -152 -985 -409 -184 67 + Depreciation & Amortization 667 394 359 372 389 426 469 495 511 518 543 + Other Non-Cash Adjustments 76 1338 -879 58 -303 -69 35 439 8 313 -316 + Changes in Non-Cash Capital 181 -56 315 -99 27 -211 81 388 -316 141 748Cash From Operating Activities 1329 748 319 1419 1266 1257 1157 1573 592 820 -10 + Disposal of Fixed Assets 0 0 20 26 13 13 14 15 526 + Capital Expenditures -658 -373 -398 -535 -772 -1243 -969 -600 -499 -634 -810 -775 -767 -700 + Increase in Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Decrease in Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Other Investing Activities 38 120 4437 127 -32 -25 -1 0 0 -251 -9Cash From Investing Activities -620 -253 4039 -408 -784 -1242 -957 -587 -485 -870 -293 + Dividends Paid -161 -160 -150 -131 -153 -174 -178 -183 -189 -178 -86 + Change in Short Term Borrowings 25 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Increase in Long Term Borrowings 607 0 0 0 980 0 0 392 0 0 + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings -939 -450 -856 -474 -21 -746 -203 -113 -693 0 -250 + Increase in Capital Stocks 30 52 248 205 174 62 5 4 10 78 71 + Decrease in Capital Stocks -30 -29 -1901 -2252 -750 -400 0 0 0 -900 0 + Other Financing Activities 34 -14 8 -1 -8 -4 -35 -16 -65 -9Cash From Financing Activities -1041 25 -2673 -2644 -751 -286 -380 -327 -496 -1065 -274Net Changes in Cash -332 520 1685 -1633 -269 -271 -180 659 -389 -1115 -577Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) 671 375 -79 884 494 14 188 973 93 186 -820 -639 -283 -216Free Cash Flow To Firm 917 549 165 1073 665 192 355 1134 245Free Cash Flow To Equity -300 483 -1251 410 493 274 -2 873 -194 201 -544Free Cash Flow per Share 2.51 1.38 -0.28 3.49 2.16 0.06 0.85 4.19 0.39 0.86 -3.74 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 7. Company Analysis - Financials IV/IVPeriodicity: 1/03 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14E 1/15E 1/16ERatio AnalysisValuation Ratios Price Earnings 15.5x 21.6x 18.3x 15.5x 17.5x 10.2x 6.8x 19.9x 19.3x 59.2x EV to EBIT 8.2x 12.5x 8.2x 8.6x 10.2x 6.4x 4.3x 9.4x 9.8x 23.5x EV to EBITDA 4.9x 8.3x 6.4x 7.0x 8.5x 5.2x 3.0x 5.4x 6.1x 10.9x 16.4x 11.0x Price to Sales 0.2x 0.4x 0.6x 0.8x 1.0x 0.5x 0.2x 0.3x 0.4x 0.5x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x Price to Book 0.9x 1.4x 2.3x 3.3x 4.4x 2.0x 0.9x 1.2x 1.4x 2.2x 1.4x 1.5x 1.6x 2.3x Dividend Yield 2.6% 1.9% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 1.6% 4.8% 3.2% 2.5% 1.9% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Profitability Ratios Gross Margin 30.2% 37.2% 38.6% 39.3% 39.3% 38.6% 37.4% 39.4% 39.2% 36.0% 31.3% 35.2% 36.7% 36.4% EBITDA Margin 5.2% 6.7% 9.1% 10.4% 11.6% 11.7% 8.7% 6.6% 7.6% 5.6% -3.6% -0.6% 2.7% 3.8% Operating Margin 3.1% 4.4% 7.1% 8.4% 9.7% 9.5% 6.1% 3.8% 4.7% 2.6% -7.8% -4.1% -1.0% 0.5% Profit Margin 1.3% -5.2% 2.9% 5.8% 5.8% 5.6% 3.1% 1.4% 2.2% -0.9% -7.6% -3.1% -1.2% -0.3% Return on Assets 2.3% -5.1% 3.2% 8.2% 9.2% 8.2% 4.3% 2.0% 3.0% -1.2% -9.3% -6.1% -3.9% -3.1% Return on Equity 6.4% -17.1% 10.3% 24.6% 27.8% 23.1% 12.1% 5.6% 7.6% -3.2% -27.4% -16.2% -7.3% -6.0%Leverage & Coverage Ratios Current Ratio 2.01 1.73 2.50 2.43 1.90 2.02 2.23 2.05 2.41 1.84 1.43 Quick Ratio 0.76 0.86 1.49 1.19 0.86 0.87 1.00 0.93 0.99 0.55 0.36 Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) 2.61 3.03 3.44 5.59 6.99 6.56 4.08 2.51 3.57 1.97 -4.48 Tot Debt/Capital 0.45 0.50 0.45 0.46 0.45 0.41 0.46 0.42 0.36 0.44 0.48 Tot Debt/Equity 0.82 0.99 0.81 0.86 0.80 0.70 0.84 0.71 0.57 0.77 0.91Others Asset Turnover 1.80 0.98 1.12 1.41 1.58 1.47 1.40 1.43 1.39 1.41 1.22 Accounts Receivable Turnover 46.11 37.92 71.38 69.05 74.68 57.32 42.16 78.55 Accounts Payable Turnover 6.23 2.96 6.01 9.92 9.67 8.76 8.39 8.60 9.32 9.97 7.64 Inventory Turnover 4.57 2.76 3.53 3.59 3.65 3.46 3.35 3.39 3.46 3.60 3.39 Effective Tax Rate 36.5% 33.3% 34.6% 32.3% 36.7% 35.9% 37.7% 38.2% 34.9% Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 8. Company Analysis - Peers Comparision WAL-MART COSTCO BED BATH J.C. PENNEY CO MACYS INC KOHLS CORP NORDSTROM INC TARGET CORP SAKS INC SEARS HOLDINGS GAP INC/THE DILLARDS INC-A TJX COS INC ROSS STORES INC BON-TON STORES STORES WHOLESALE &BEYONDLatest Fiscal Year: 01/2013 01/2013 01/2013 01/2013 01/2013 01/2013 01/2013 01/2013 08/2012 01/2013 01/2013 01/2013 01/2012 01/2012 02/201252-Week High 39.72 42.17 55.25 58.44 65.80 77.60 12.14 77.21 104.35 37.85 89.42 46.67 70.82 14.99 75.8452-Week High Date 08.03.2012 02.05.2012 01.11.2012 30.08.2012 21.09.2012 16.10.2012 03.04.2012 16.03.2012 01.02.2013 05.10.2012 15.02.2013 29.08.2012 20.08.2012 12.09.2012 19.06.201252-Week Low 15.70 32.31 41.35 46.27 54.68 57.18 9.24 38.40 76.56 24.17 57.20 36.68 52.01 3.50 54.3352-Week Low Date 16.11.2012 12.07.2012 03.01.2013 05.06.2012 17.05.2012 25.04.2012 13.11.2012 28.12.2012 08.05.2012 05.03.2012 05.03.2012 06.03.2012 27.12.2012 23.05.2012 20.12.2012Daily Volume 1768894 6094561 3322487 2316529 6536059 8902516 2212078 1166289 1790052 8480874 581586 6794205 2234168 95386 2483694 Current Price (3/dd/yy) 17.69 40.68 46.17 54.07 64.13 71.74 11.28 44.36 101.42 33.87 80.27 44.98 58.13 10.73 56.93 52-Week High % Change -55.5% -3.5% -16.4% -7.5% -2.5% -7.6% -7.1% -42.5% -2.8% -10.5% -10.2% -3.6% -17.9% -28.4% -24.9% 52-Week Low % Change 12.7% 25.9% 11.7% 16.9% 17.3% 25.5% 22.1% 15.5% 32.5% 40.1% 40.3% 22.6% 11.8% 206.6% 4.8%Total Common Shares (M) 219.3 387.7 227.0 207.6 645.3 3340.0 145.3 106.4 432.4 479.4 47.8 737.9 226.9 19.7 235.5 Market Capitalization 3881.2 15771.6 10619.6 10651.8 41383.1 239611.6 1639.0 4719.9 44182.3 16237.9 3783.1 32801.8 12927.0 215.7 12873.9Total Debt 2894.0 6930.0 4553.0 3131.0 17648.0 54136.0 359.6 3120.0 1382.0 1246.0 624.0 774.6 150.0 883.4 -Preferred Stock - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Minority Interest - - - - - 5395.0 - - 157.0 - - - - - -Cash and Equivalents 930.0 1836.0 537.0 1285.0 784.0 7781.0 80.4 609.0 4854.0 1510.0 124.1 2047.8 650.5 14.3 1759.6 Enterprise Value 5845.2 20865.6 14635.6 12497.8 58247.1 291361.6 1918.2 7230.9 40151.3 15973.9 4283.0 31528.6 12451.6 1230.1 12089.2 ValuationTotal Revenue LFY 12985.0 27686.0 19279.0 12148.0 73301.0 469162.0 3147.6 39854.0 99137.0 15651.0 6751.6 25878.4 8608.3 2953.5 9499.9 LTM 12985.0 27686.0 19280.0 12148.0 73301.0 469162.0 3147.6 39854.0 101224.0 15651.0 6748.9 25878.4 9358.3 2953.9 10245.4 CY+1 12664.5 28314.7 19495.4 12944.2 75452.9 492408.8 3230.9 36244.5 106397.7 16186.6 6817.3 27230.8 9697.2 2985.0 10909.9 CY+2 13169.2 29159.8 19893.1 13974.6 80606.4 516301.8 3379.3 35608.5 115492.0 16831.5 6960.0 29130.6 10304.3 3004.0 11629.9EV/Total Revenue LFY 0.5x 0.7x 0.8x 1.1x 0.8x 0.6x 0.6x 0.2x 0.4x 1.0x 0.7x 1.2x 1.5x 0.4x 1.3x LTM 0.5x 0.7x 0.8x 1.1x 0.8x 0.6x 0.6x 0.2x 0.4x 1.0x 0.7x 1.2x 1.4x 0.4x 1.3x CY+1 0.5x 0.7x 0.7x 0.9x 0.7x 0.6x 0.6x 0.2x 0.4x 0.9x 0.7x 1.2x 1.3x 0.4x 1.1x CY+2 0.4x 0.7x 0.7x 0.8x 0.7x 0.6x 0.5x 0.2x 0.4x 0.9x 0.6x 1.1x 1.2x 0.4x 1.0xEBITDA LFY (469.0) 3715.0 2723.0 1774.0 7352.0 36302.0 271.1 (146.0) 3667.0 2425.0 800.1 3615.4 1223.4 165.4 1752.2 LTM (469.0) 3715.0 2722.0 1774.0 7353.0 36302.0 271.1 (146.0) 3774.0 2425.0 799.9 3615.4 1382.2 147.5 1782.2 CY+1 (74.0) 3831.3 2732.1 1851.1 7458.0 37856.6 277.1 605.0 4101.7 2571.5 842.0 3854.6 1473.6 165.7 1846.4 CY+2 357.1 4027.4 2828.2 2023.1 8258.4 39832.9 305.6 678.0 4480.8 2735.6 793.0 4239.4 1594.6 192.7 1966.6EV/EBITDA LFY -13.5x 5.5x 5.3x 7.5x 7.7x 7.9x 6.8x -51.9x 10.5x 6.4x 5.7x 8.9x 10.7x 7.6x 7.3x LTM 26.2x 5.5x 5.3x 7.5x 7.7x 7.9x 6.8x 115.5x 10.2x 6.4x 5.7x 8.9x 9.5x 8.5x 7.2x CY+1 - 5.3x 5.1x 6.6x 7.4x 7.6x 6.8x 11.8x 10.6x 6.0x 5.4x 8.2x 8.4x 6.9x 6.4x CY+2 16.5x 4.9x 4.9x 5.8x 6.8x 7.2x 5.9x 10.3x 9.6x 5.4x 5.7x 7.4x 7.7x 5.8x 5.8xEPS LFY -3.49 3.46 4.17 3.56 4.76 5.02 0.46 -2.03 3.89 2.33 6.36 2.55 2.86 -1.02 4.06 LTM -3.65 3.51 4.20 3.56 4.56 5.02 0.43 -2.54 4.12 2.30 6.33 2.55 3.31 -1.40 4.38 CY+1 (2.29) 3.92 4.38 3.82 4.72 5.35 0.44 (2.90) 4.50 2.62 7.10 2.81 3.53 (0.43) 4.56 CY+2 (1.06) 4.43 4.91 4.26 5.56 5.88 0.52 (2.26) 5.01 2.92 7.85 3.16 3.88 0.47 5.06P/E LFY - 11.6x 11.0x 15.2x 14.1x 14.3x 26.2x - 24.6x 14.7x 12.7x 17.6x 17.6x - 13.0x LTM - 11.6x 11.0x 15.2x 14.1x 14.3x 26.2x - 24.6x 14.7x 12.7x 17.6x 17.6x - 13.0x CY+1 - 10.4x 10.6x 14.2x 13.6x 13.4x 25.7x - 22.5x 12.9x 11.3x 16.0x 16.5x - 12.5x CY+2 - 9.2x 9.4x 12.7x 11.5x 12.2x 21.7x - 20.2x 11.6x 10.2x 14.2x 15.0x 22.9x 11.3xRevenue Growth 1 Year (24.8%) 4.9% 2.5% 11.7% 4.9% 5.0% 4.4% (4.1%) 11.5% 7.6% 5.5% 11.6% 9.4% (3.1%) 8.5% 5 Year (8.8%) 1.9% 3.1% 7.7% 2.8% 3.6% 0.2% (4.1%) 8.5% 0.5% (0.3%) 7.6% 9.1% (3.2%) 8.7%EBITDA Growth 1 Year - 7.0% (7.3%) 9.5% (1.4%) 4.7% (2.1%) (131.7%) 11.0% 24.7% 17.5% 23.3% 14.6% (30.8%) 19.0% 5 Year (16.0%) 1.9% 3.8% 3.9% 1.2% 5.1% 2.3% - 10.9% 5.4% 11.7% 13.9% 19.7% (10.3%) 11.4%EBITDA Margin LTM (3.6%) 13.4% 14.1% 14.6% 10.0% 7.7% 8.6% (0.4%) 3.7% 15.5% 11.9% 14.0% 14.8% 5.0% 17.4% CY+1 (0.6%) 13.5% 14.0% 14.3% 9.9% 7.7% 8.6% 1.7% 3.9% 15.9% 12.4% 14.2% 15.2% 5.5% 16.9% CY+2 2.7% 13.8% 14.2% 14.5% 10.2% 7.7% 9.0% 1.9% 3.9% 16.3% 11.4% 14.6% 15.5% 6.4% 16.9% Leverage/Coverage RatiosTotal Debt / Equity % 91.3% 114.5% 75.3% 163.7% 106.6% 70.9% 31.3% 98.4% 11.2% 43.1% 31.7% 21.1% 10.0% 671.2% 0.0%Total Debt / Capital % 47.7% 53.4% 42.9% 62.1% 51.6% 39.8% 23.8% 49.6% 9.9% 30.1% 24.1% 17.4% 9.1% 87.0% 0.0%Total Debt / EBITDA 9.690x 1.865x 1.673x 1.765x 2.400x 1.491x 1.327x 44.000x 0.365x 0.514x 0.780x 0.214x 0.109x 6.934x 0.000xNet Debt / EBITDA 7.974x 1.371x 1.475x 1.041x 2.293x 1.277x 1.030x 37.165x -1.112x -0.109x 0.625x -0.352x -0.344x 6.879x -0.440xEBITDA / Int. Expense -2.075x 8.803x 8.277x 11.088x 9.648x 16.127x 7.290x -0.547x 34.924x 29.938x 11.496x 123.922x 113.044x 1.835x - Credit RatingsS&P LT Credit Rating CCC+ BBB BBB+ A- A+ AA BB CCC+ A+ BB+ BB A BBB+ B- BBB+S&P LT Credit Rating Date 28.02.2013 10.04.2012 20.09.2007 03.02.2011 20.11.2007 09.07.1999 18.08.2011 05.01.2012 28.11.2012 17.11.2006 14.03.2012 18.09.2002 08.06.2011 10.01.2012 30.06.2011Moodys LT Credit Rating - Baa3 Baa1 Baa1 A2 Aa2 B1 - A1 Baa3 B1 A3 - Caa3 -Moodys LT Credit Rating Date - 09.01.2012 24.09.2007 11.02.2011 27.11.2007 06.03.1996 19.01.2012 - 26.03.2012 07.04.2011 22.06.2012 17.09.1998 - 05.06.2012 - Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |