SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 6
Download to read offline
1
                                                                                                                            Company Comment
                                                                                                          Thursday, January 3, 2013, Pre-Market


Alicorp SAA                                                                                                                       (ALICORC1-LM PEN 8.40)


Two Acquisitions in Less Than One Week
Paul Figueroa Mantero, MSc, MBA                                                                             Juan Jose Guzman - +51 (1) 211 6000 x16851
+51 (1) 211 6040 x16474                                                                                            (Scotia Sociedad Agente de Bolsa SA)
(Scotia Sociedad Agente de Bolsa SA)                                                                                            juan.guzman@scotiabank.com.pe
paul.figueroa@scotiabank.com.pe

Rating: 1-Sector Outperform                            Target 1-Yr:          PEN 9.00         ROR 1-Yr:              9.2%      Div. (NTM)                     $0.07
Risk Ranking: Medium                                                                                                           Div. (Curr.)                   $0.07
Valuation: DCF @9.11%                                                                                                          Yield (Curr.)                   2.2%
Key Risks to Target: Commodity prices, political risk.

Event                                                                                                                          Pertinent Revisions
■ Alicorp announced that it has reached an agreement with the                                                                                       New         Old
  shareholders of Industrias TEAL S.A. (Teal) to acquire 99.11% of the                                                         Target:
  total common shares and 93.68% of the total investment shares (shares                                                        1-Yr                  9.00       8.60
  with no voting rights). The amount of the transaction is PEN 413.9                                                           EPS13E             US$0.16    US$0.15
  million ($160 million).
Implications
■ Through the acquisition, Alicorp seeks to consolidate its leadership
  within key segments such as bakery, pasta and cookies; and accelerate
  entry into adjacent categories, such as panettone, candies, and
  chocolates. We expect synergies through economies of scale, higher
  productivity and distribution efficiencies.
■ Industrias Teal is an important consumer staples company in Peru with
  LTM revenues of PEN 264 million (~$102 million) or approximately
  6.2% of our estimated consolidated revenue for Alicorp for 2012.
■ Alicorp did not disclosed Teal's net debt or EBITDA margin. However,
  taking into account industry standards (EBITDA margin of 12% for
  consumer staples companies in Peru for 2012); the transaction is
  estimated to be valued between 14x to 15x LTM EV/EBITDA.
Recommendation
■ We have increased our one-year target price to PEN 9.00 per share and
  we reiterate our rating of 1-SO for the common shares of Alicorp on the
  outlook of higher growth and a more consolidated position in the
  Consumer Goods business line underpinned by this recent acquisition.
Qtly EPS                                    Q1             Q2             Q3              Q4             Year           P/E     Capitalization
2010A                                   $0.03 A        $0.04 A        $0.03 A         $0.01 A           $0.12         18.9x     Shares O/S (M)                  854.6
2011A                                   $0.03 A        $0.04 A        $0.04 A         $0.03 A           $0.14         15.5x     Market Cap (M)              PEN 7,178
2012E                                   $0.05 A        $0.03 A        $0.04 A           $0.04           $0.15         22.4x     Float O/S (M)                   469.2
2013E                                     $0.04          $0.04          $0.04           $0.04           $0.16         21.0x     Float Value (M)             PEN 3,942

(FY-Dec.)                                               2009A          2010A           2011A          2012E          2013E
Earnings/Share                                           $0.09          $0.12           $0.14          $0.15          $0.16
Cash Flow/Share                                          $0.22          $0.24           $0.26          $0.23          $0.28
Price/Earnings                                           10.6x          18.9x           15.5x          22.4x          21.0x
Relative P/E                                               0.1x           1.1x            1.1x           1.4x           1.3x
Revenues (M)                                            $1,281         $1,332          $1,579         $1,653         $2,141
EBITDA (M)                                                $184           $201            $219           $200           $239
Current Ratio                                              1.4x           1.7x            2.1x           2.1x           1.8x
EBITDA/Int. Exp                                          11.7x          18.0x           14.7x          11.1x          13.1x
                                                   BVPS13E         $1.08                                                        ScotiaView Analyst Link
                                                    ROE13E         15.56%
Historical price multiple calculations use FYE prices. Source: Reuters; company reports; Scotiabank GBM estimates.
All values in US$ unless otherwise indicated. Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.




 For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures see Appendix A of this report. Analysts employed by non-U.S.
 affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
2




Two Acquisitions in Less Than One Week

■ Alicorp announced that it has reached an agreement with the shareholders of Industrial
  TEAL S.A. (Teal) to acquire the 99.11% of the total common shares and 93.68% of the total
  investment shares (shares with no voting rights). The amount of the transaction is of PEN
  413.9 million ($160 million). The transaction, which includes the purchase of the well-
  established brand SAYON, is expected to be completed in January 2013.
■ Industrias Teal is an important consumer staples company in Peru with a diversified portfolio
  of products which includes flour, pasta, cookies, panettone, chocolates, and candies. The
  company, which has more than 75 years of operations, owns one plant (20,000 m2) located in
  Lima and has the capacity to distribute its products throughout the entire country. Exports
  account to approximately 10% of production and are mainly sold within LatAm countries.
  Teal is also vertically integrated as it is engaged in the import of wheat and the milling
  process, manufacturing, and distribution mainly throughout wholesalers and bakeries.
■ Teal posted LTM revenues of PEN 264 million as of November 2012 which account to
  approximately 6.2% of our estimated consolidated revenue for Alicorp for 2012.
■ Alicorp did not disclosed Teal’s net debt or EBITDA margin. However, taking into account
  industry standards (EBITDA margin of 12% for consumer staples companies in Peru for
  2012); the transaction is estimated to be valued between 14x to 15x LTM EV/EBITDA.
■ Even though, in terms of current LTM multiples, the value of the transaction is above trading
  peers as they trade at ~13.2x (see our report on peer analysis), we do not believe Alicorp has
  paid top dollar for Teal. In our view, the transaction should be value accretive for Alicorp as
  it should add operating synergies through economies of scale, increasing pricing power,
  higher growth potential, and productivity.
■ We expect higher growth for Teal after the acquisition as it will not only benefit from
  Alicorp's strong and exclusive distribution system in Peru but from Alicorp’s presence in
  other countries such as Argentina. We also expect increasing margins, as a family run
  business such as Teal, should benefit from more efficient processes run by the leading
  consumer staples company in Peru.
■ We estimate that the transaction will help Alicorp to increase 5% of market share in its flour
  category and 10% to 12% in its cookies business line which should also help Alicorp to
  increase its pricing power as well as diversify its brands portfolio, taking advantage of the
  renowned products of the acquired company.
■ We have increased our one-year target price to PEN 9.00 per share and we reiterate our
  rating of 1-SO for the common shares of Alicorp on the outlook of higher mid-term growth
  and a more consolidated position in the Consumer Goods business line underpinned by the
  recent acquisition of Teal.

                                                                                                    ScotiaView Analyst Link
3




Appendix A: Important Disclosures
Company                                                                          Ticker              Disclosures (see legend below)*
Alicorp SAA                                                                      ALICORC1            M6, VS1

I, Paul Figueroa Mantero, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report in connection with securities or issuers that I analyze accurately
reflect my personal views and (2) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or
views expressed by me in this report.
This research report was prepared by employees of Scotia Capital Inc. and/or its affiliates who have the title of Analyst.
All pricing of securities in reports is based on the closing price of the securities’ principal marketplace on the night before the publication date,
unless otherwise explicitly stated.
All Equity Research Analysts report to the Head of Equity Research. The Head of Equity Research reports to the Managing Director, Head of
Institutional Equity Sales, Trading and Research, who is not and does not report to the Head of the Investment Banking Department.
Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets has policies that are reasonably designed to prevent or control the sharing of material non-public
information across internal information barriers, such as between Investment Banking and Research.
The compensation of the research analyst who prepared this report is based on several factors, including but not limited to, the overall
profitability of Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets and the revenues generated from its various departments, including investment banking.
Furthermore, the research analyst’s compensation is charged as an expense to various Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets departments,
including investment banking. Research Analysts may not receive compensation from the companies they cover.
Non-U.S. analysts may not be associated persons of Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. and therefore may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 restrictions
on communications with subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by the analysts.


For Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Research analyst standards and disclosure policies, please visit gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures.
Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Research, 40 King Street West, 33rd Floor, Toronto, Ontario, M5H 1H1.


*      Legend
M6     Paul Figueroa Mantero, an analyst, prepared this report and is an employee of the Research Department of Scotia Sociedad Agente
       de Bolsa S.A., which is a fully owned subsidiary of Scotiabank Peru.
VS1    Our Research Analyst visited Complejo Alicorp Callao, a plant that produces cookies, pasta, detergents, edible oils, and sauces, on
       October 9, 2012. Full payment was received from the issuer for the travel-related expenses incurred by the Research Analyst to visit
       this site.
4




                                                                                                             Alicorp SAA (ALICORC1)
                                                                                                              Closing                            Target-
                                                                                                 #   Date                       Rating
                                                                                                               Price                              1YR
                                                                                                 1 22-Oct-12 PEN 7.71    1-Sector Outperform         8.60
                                                                                                       * represents the value(s) that has changed.




Numbers are located to the left of the lines they represent.
Numbers indicated with a plus sign (+) have more than one target or rating change in the given
month.
5




Definition of Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Equity Research Ratings & Risk Rankings
We have a three-tiered rating system, with ratings of 1-Sector Outperform, 2-Sector Perform, and 3-Sector Underperform. Each analyst assigns a
rating that is relative to his or her coverage universe or an index identified by the analyst that includes, but is not limited to, stocks covered by the
analyst.
Our risk ranking system provides transparency as to the underlying financial and operational risk of each stock covered. Statistical and judgmental
factors considered are: historical financial results, share price volatility, liquidity of the shares, credit ratings, analyst forecasts, consistency and
predictability of earnings, EPS growth, dividends, cash flow from operations, and strength of balance sheet. The Director of Research and the
Supervisory Analyst jointly make the final determination of all risk rankings.
The rating assigned to each security covered in this report is based on the Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets research analyst’s 12-month view
on the security. Analysts may sometimes express to traders, salespeople and certain clients their shorter-term views on these securities that differ
from their 12-month view due to several factors, including but not limited to the inherent volatility of the marketplace.
Ratings                                                                             Risk Rankings
1-Sector Outperform                                                                 Low
The stock is expected to outperform the average 12-month total return of the        Low financial and operational risk, high predictability of financial
analyst’s coverage universe or an index identified by the analyst that              results, low stock volatility.
includes, but is not limited to, stocks covered by the analyst.                     Medium
2-Sector Perform                                                                    Moderate financial and operational risk, moderate predictability of
The stock is expected to perform approximately in line with the average             financial results, moderate stock volatility.
12-month total return of the analyst’s coverage universe or an index                High
identified by the analyst that includes, but is not limited to, stocks covered by   High financial and/or operational risk, low predictability of financial
the analyst.                                                                        results, high stock volatility.
3-Sector Underperform                                                               Caution Warranted
The stock is expected to underperform the average 12-month total return of          Exceptionally high financial and/or operational risk, exceptionally low
the analyst’s coverage universe or an index identified by the analyst that          predictability of financial results, exceptionally high stock volatility. For risk-
includes, but is not limited to, stocks covered by the analyst.                     tolerant investors only.
Other Ratings                                                                       Venture
Tender – Investors are guided to tender to the terms of the takeover offer.         Risk and return consistent with Venture Capital. For risk-tolerant investors
Under Review – The rating has been temporarily placed under review, until           only.
sufficient information has been received and assessed by the analyst.
Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Equity Research Ratings Distribution*
Distribution by Ratings and Equity and Equity-Related Financings*
                                                                                         Percentage of companies covered by Scotiabank, Global Banking
                                                                                         and Markets within each rating category.
                                                                                         Percentage of companies within each rating category for which
                                                                                         Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets has undertaken an
                                                                                         underwriting liability or has provided advice for a fee within the last
                                                                                         12 months.




Source: Scotiabank GBM.
For the purposes of the ratings distribution disclosure FINRA requires members who use a ratings system with terms different than “buy,”
“hold/neutral” and “sell,” to equate their own ratings into these categories. Our 1-Sector Outperform, 2-Sector Perform, and 3-Sector Underperform
ratings are based on the criteria above, but for this purpose could be equated to buy, neutral and sell ratings, respectively.
6




General Disclosures
This report has been prepared by analysts who are employed by the Research Department of Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets. Scotiabank,
together with “Global Banking and Markets,” is a marketing name for the global corporate and investment banking and capital markets businesses of
The Bank of Nova Scotia and certain of its affiliates in the countries where they operate, including Scotia Capital Inc.
All other trademarks are acknowledged as belonging to their respective owners and the display of such trademarks is for informational use only.
Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Research produces research reports under a single marketing identity referred to as “Globally-branded
research” under U.S. rules. This research is produced on a single global research platform with one set of rules which meet the most stringent
standards set by regulators in the various jurisdictions in which the research reports are produced. In addition, the analysts who produce the research
reports, regardless of location, are subject to one set of policies designed to meet the most stringent rules established by regulators in the various
jurisdictions where the research reports are produced.
This report is provided to you for informational purposes only. This report is not, and is not to be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer
to buy any securities and/or commodity futures contracts.
The securities mentioned in this report may neither be suitable for all investors nor eligible for sale in some jurisdictions where the report is distributed.
The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, however, Scotiabank, Global Banking
and Markets makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to their accuracy or completeness.
Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets has policies designed to make best efforts to ensure that the information contained in this report is current as
of the date of this report, unless otherwise specified.
Any prices that are stated in this report are for informational purposes only. Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets makes no representation that any
transaction may be or could have been effected at those prices.
Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary from the opinions
expressed by other departments of Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets or any of its affiliates.
Neither Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets nor its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of
this report or its contents.
Equity research reports published by Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets are available electronically via: Bloomberg, Thomson Financial/First
Call - Research Direct, Reuters, Capital IQ, and FactSet. Institutional clients with questions regarding distribution of equity research should contact us
at 1-800-208-7666.
This report and all the information, opinions, and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This report may not be reproduced in whole or
in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions, and conclusions contained in it be referred to without the prior
express consent of Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets.
Additional Disclosures
Canada: This report is distributed by Scotia Capital Inc., a subsidiary of The Bank of Nova Scotia. DWM Securities Inc. is a subsidiary of The Bank of
Nova Scotia and an affiliate of Scotia Capital Inc. Scotia Capital Inc. and DWM Securities Inc. are members of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund
and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. DWM Securities Inc. does not provide investment banking services.
Chile: This report is distributed by Scotia Corredora de Bolsa Chile S.A., a subsidiary of The Bank of Nova Scotia.
Hong Kong: This report is distributed by The Bank of Nova Scotia Hong Kong Branch, which is authorized by the Securities and Future Commission
to conduct Type 1, Type 4 and Type 6 regulated activities and regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
Mexico: This report is distributed by Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa S.A. de C.V., a subsidiary of the Bank of Nova Scotia.
Peru: This report is distributed by Scotia Sociedad Agente de Bolsa S.A., a subsidiary of The Bank of Nova Scotia.
Singapore: This report is distributed by The Bank of Nova Scotia Asia Limited, a subsidiary of The Bank of Nova Scotia. The Bank of Nova Scotia
Asia Limited is authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, and exempted under Section 99(1)(a),and (b), (c) and (d) of the
Securities and Futures Act to conduct regulated activities.
United Kingdom and the rest of Europe: Except as otherwise specified herein, this report is distributed by Scotiabank Europe PLC, a subsidiary of the Bank of
Nova Scotia. Scotiabank Europe PLC is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA). Scotiabank Europe PLC complies with all the
FSA requirements concerning research and the associated disclosures and these are indicated on the research where applicable.
United States: This report is distributed by Scotia Capital (USA) Inc., a subsidiary of Scotia Capital Inc., and a registered U.S. broker-dealer. All
transactions by a U.S. investor of securities mentioned in this report must be effected through Scotia Capital (USA) Inc.
Non-U.S. investors wishing to effect a transaction in the securities discussed in this report should contact a Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets
entity in their local jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise.

More Related Content

What's hot

eBay 2009q1 Earnings Slides
eBay 2009q1 Earnings SlideseBay 2009q1 Earnings Slides
eBay 2009q1 Earnings SlidesPhil Wolff
 
Raytheon Reports 2008 First Quarter Results
	Raytheon Reports 2008 First Quarter Results	Raytheon Reports 2008 First Quarter Results
Raytheon Reports 2008 First Quarter Resultsfinance12
 
HSBC 2006 Interim Results Presentation to Investors and Analysts
HSBC 	2006 Interim Results Presentation to Investors and AnalystsHSBC 	2006 Interim Results Presentation to Investors and Analysts
HSBC 2006 Interim Results Presentation to Investors and AnalystsQuarterlyEarningsReports2
 
oshkosh Q207_Slides
oshkosh   Q207_Slidesoshkosh   Q207_Slides
oshkosh Q207_Slidesfinance44
 
Yahoo Earnings Q3 2008
Yahoo Earnings Q3 2008Yahoo Earnings Q3 2008
Yahoo Earnings Q3 2008Keith Teare
 
Raytheon Reports 2008 Third Quarter Results
Raytheon Reports 2008 Third Quarter ResultsRaytheon Reports 2008 Third Quarter Results
Raytheon Reports 2008 Third Quarter Resultsfinance12
 
AES 2Q 2006 AE SFinancial
AES 2Q 2006 AE SFinancialAES 2Q 2006 AE SFinancial
AES 2Q 2006 AE SFinancialfinance19
 
kellogg annual reports 2005
kellogg annual reports 2005kellogg annual reports 2005
kellogg annual reports 2005finance23
 
kellogg annual reports 2003
kellogg annual reports 2003kellogg annual reports 2003
kellogg annual reports 2003finance23
 
pilgrim's pride Q1%20FY2008%20Slideshow
pilgrim's pride  Q1%20FY2008%20Slideshowpilgrim's pride  Q1%20FY2008%20Slideshow
pilgrim's pride Q1%20FY2008%20Slideshowfinance30
 
autozone 45E1C146-74DD-4D77-B8DB-AFBFCDEC97CA_ShareholdersMeeting_121708
autozone   45E1C146-74DD-4D77-B8DB-AFBFCDEC97CA_ShareholdersMeeting_121708autozone   45E1C146-74DD-4D77-B8DB-AFBFCDEC97CA_ShareholdersMeeting_121708
autozone 45E1C146-74DD-4D77-B8DB-AFBFCDEC97CA_ShareholdersMeeting_121708finance46
 

What's hot (12)

eBay 2009q1 Earnings Slides
eBay 2009q1 Earnings SlideseBay 2009q1 Earnings Slides
eBay 2009q1 Earnings Slides
 
Raytheon Reports 2008 First Quarter Results
	Raytheon Reports 2008 First Quarter Results	Raytheon Reports 2008 First Quarter Results
Raytheon Reports 2008 First Quarter Results
 
HSBC 2006 Interim Results Presentation to Investors and Analysts
HSBC 	2006 Interim Results Presentation to Investors and AnalystsHSBC 	2006 Interim Results Presentation to Investors and Analysts
HSBC 2006 Interim Results Presentation to Investors and Analysts
 
oshkosh Q207_Slides
oshkosh   Q207_Slidesoshkosh   Q207_Slides
oshkosh Q207_Slides
 
Yahoo Earnings Q3 2008
Yahoo Earnings Q3 2008Yahoo Earnings Q3 2008
Yahoo Earnings Q3 2008
 
Raytheon Reports 2008 Third Quarter Results
Raytheon Reports 2008 Third Quarter ResultsRaytheon Reports 2008 Third Quarter Results
Raytheon Reports 2008 Third Quarter Results
 
Munjal show ltd
Munjal show ltdMunjal show ltd
Munjal show ltd
 
AES 2Q 2006 AE SFinancial
AES 2Q 2006 AE SFinancialAES 2Q 2006 AE SFinancial
AES 2Q 2006 AE SFinancial
 
kellogg annual reports 2005
kellogg annual reports 2005kellogg annual reports 2005
kellogg annual reports 2005
 
kellogg annual reports 2003
kellogg annual reports 2003kellogg annual reports 2003
kellogg annual reports 2003
 
pilgrim's pride Q1%20FY2008%20Slideshow
pilgrim's pride  Q1%20FY2008%20Slideshowpilgrim's pride  Q1%20FY2008%20Slideshow
pilgrim's pride Q1%20FY2008%20Slideshow
 
autozone 45E1C146-74DD-4D77-B8DB-AFBFCDEC97CA_ShareholdersMeeting_121708
autozone   45E1C146-74DD-4D77-B8DB-AFBFCDEC97CA_ShareholdersMeeting_121708autozone   45E1C146-74DD-4D77-B8DB-AFBFCDEC97CA_ShareholdersMeeting_121708
autozone 45E1C146-74DD-4D77-B8DB-AFBFCDEC97CA_ShareholdersMeeting_121708
 

Viewers also liked

2014 Outlook Call
2014 Outlook Call2014 Outlook Call
2014 Outlook CallCNOServices
 
The best of SEO toturial
The best of SEO toturialThe best of SEO toturial
The best of SEO toturialboyfvn
 
Data mining-ieee-2014-projects
Data mining-ieee-2014-projectsData mining-ieee-2014-projects
Data mining-ieee-2014-projectsVijay Karan
 
M phil-computer-science-server-computing-projects
M phil-computer-science-server-computing-projectsM phil-computer-science-server-computing-projects
M phil-computer-science-server-computing-projectsVijay Karan
 
التوبة أو الهلاك 1-6- - 08ا-لقس كرم لمعى - منبر الكنيسه الإنجيليه بالإبراهيميه
التوبة أو الهلاك  1-6- - 08ا-لقس كرم لمعى - منبر الكنيسه الإنجيليه بالإبراهيميهالتوبة أو الهلاك  1-6- - 08ا-لقس كرم لمعى - منبر الكنيسه الإنجيليه بالإبراهيميه
التوبة أو الهلاك 1-6- - 08ا-لقس كرم لمعى - منبر الكنيسه الإنجيليه بالإبراهيميهIbrahimia Church Ftriends
 
M phil-computer-science-data-mining-projects
M phil-computer-science-data-mining-projectsM phil-computer-science-data-mining-projects
M phil-computer-science-data-mining-projectsVijay Karan
 
การทำโครงงานพัฒนาสื่อเพื่อการศึกษา
การทำโครงงานพัฒนาสื่อเพื่อการศึกษาการทำโครงงานพัฒนาสื่อเพื่อการศึกษา
การทำโครงงานพัฒนาสื่อเพื่อการศึกษาKhemjira_P
 
وتكونون لى شهود القس مايكل انور
وتكونون لى شهود   القس مايكل انوروتكونون لى شهود   القس مايكل انور
وتكونون لى شهود القس مايكل انورIbrahimia Church Ftriends
 
العقيده المسيحيه الكنيسه
العقيده المسيحيه   الكنيسهالعقيده المسيحيه   الكنيسه
العقيده المسيحيه الكنيسهIbrahimia Church Ftriends
 
Game wardenpowerpoint2
Game wardenpowerpoint2Game wardenpowerpoint2
Game wardenpowerpoint2TravisCramp
 
Sin With Sebastian introduction
Sin With Sebastian introductionSin With Sebastian introduction
Sin With Sebastian introductionClaudiaVonSinner
 
ประเภทของระบบสารสนเทศ
ประเภทของระบบสารสนเทศประเภทของระบบสารสนเทศ
ประเภทของระบบสารสนเทศKhemjira_P
 
M.Phil Computer Science Cloud Computing Projects
M.Phil Computer Science Cloud Computing ProjectsM.Phil Computer Science Cloud Computing Projects
M.Phil Computer Science Cloud Computing ProjectsVijay Karan
 
Content Hub "Robotik im Pflegesektor"
Content Hub "Robotik im Pflegesektor"Content Hub "Robotik im Pflegesektor"
Content Hub "Robotik im Pflegesektor"Maisberger2012
 
LLCprocessimprovement
LLCprocessimprovementLLCprocessimprovement
LLCprocessimprovementslidewayne
 
Így szelidítsd a designered! | HWSW App!Mobil 2013 konferencia
Így szelidítsd a designered! | HWSW App!Mobil 2013 konferenciaÍgy szelidítsd a designered! | HWSW App!Mobil 2013 konferencia
Így szelidítsd a designered! | HWSW App!Mobil 2013 konferenciamatamorphosis
 

Viewers also liked (20)

2014 Outlook Call
2014 Outlook Call2014 Outlook Call
2014 Outlook Call
 
The best of SEO toturial
The best of SEO toturialThe best of SEO toturial
The best of SEO toturial
 
кейсы ООО "Эдмаркет"
кейсы ООО "Эдмаркет" кейсы ООО "Эдмаркет"
кейсы ООО "Эдмаркет"
 
Data mining-ieee-2014-projects
Data mining-ieee-2014-projectsData mining-ieee-2014-projects
Data mining-ieee-2014-projects
 
M phil-computer-science-server-computing-projects
M phil-computer-science-server-computing-projectsM phil-computer-science-server-computing-projects
M phil-computer-science-server-computing-projects
 
التوبة أو الهلاك 1-6- - 08ا-لقس كرم لمعى - منبر الكنيسه الإنجيليه بالإبراهيميه
التوبة أو الهلاك  1-6- - 08ا-لقس كرم لمعى - منبر الكنيسه الإنجيليه بالإبراهيميهالتوبة أو الهلاك  1-6- - 08ا-لقس كرم لمعى - منبر الكنيسه الإنجيليه بالإبراهيميه
التوبة أو الهلاك 1-6- - 08ا-لقس كرم لمعى - منبر الكنيسه الإنجيليه بالإبراهيميه
 
M phil-computer-science-data-mining-projects
M phil-computer-science-data-mining-projectsM phil-computer-science-data-mining-projects
M phil-computer-science-data-mining-projects
 
การทำโครงงานพัฒนาสื่อเพื่อการศึกษา
การทำโครงงานพัฒนาสื่อเพื่อการศึกษาการทำโครงงานพัฒนาสื่อเพื่อการศึกษา
การทำโครงงานพัฒนาสื่อเพื่อการศึกษา
 
وتكونون لى شهود القس مايكل انور
وتكونون لى شهود   القس مايكل انوروتكونون لى شهود   القس مايكل انور
وتكونون لى شهود القس مايكل انور
 
العقيده المسيحيه الكنيسه
العقيده المسيحيه   الكنيسهالعقيده المسيحيه   الكنيسه
العقيده المسيحيه الكنيسه
 
Loutfy hamid madkour
Loutfy hamid madkourLoutfy hamid madkour
Loutfy hamid madkour
 
Game wardenpowerpoint2
Game wardenpowerpoint2Game wardenpowerpoint2
Game wardenpowerpoint2
 
Sin With Sebastian introduction
Sin With Sebastian introductionSin With Sebastian introduction
Sin With Sebastian introduction
 
ประเภทของระบบสารสนเทศ
ประเภทของระบบสารสนเทศประเภทของระบบสารสนเทศ
ประเภทของระบบสารสนเทศ
 
M.Phil Computer Science Cloud Computing Projects
M.Phil Computer Science Cloud Computing ProjectsM.Phil Computer Science Cloud Computing Projects
M.Phil Computer Science Cloud Computing Projects
 
Content Hub "Robotik im Pflegesektor"
Content Hub "Robotik im Pflegesektor"Content Hub "Robotik im Pflegesektor"
Content Hub "Robotik im Pflegesektor"
 
Autoloans
AutoloansAutoloans
Autoloans
 
LLCprocessimprovement
LLCprocessimprovementLLCprocessimprovement
LLCprocessimprovement
 
Így szelidítsd a designered! | HWSW App!Mobil 2013 konferencia
Így szelidítsd a designered! | HWSW App!Mobil 2013 konferenciaÍgy szelidítsd a designered! | HWSW App!Mobil 2013 konferencia
Így szelidítsd a designered! | HWSW App!Mobil 2013 konferencia
 
Que es el_amor
Que es el_amorQue es el_amor
Que es el_amor
 

Similar to Scotiabank. alicorp _02_jan2013_185807_ids_505

Tricumen / 4Q14 Capital Markets Result Review_open 050315
Tricumen / 4Q14 Capital Markets Result Review_open 050315Tricumen / 4Q14 Capital Markets Result Review_open 050315
Tricumen / 4Q14 Capital Markets Result Review_open 050315Tricumen Ltd
 
goodrich 2Q06_Slides
goodrich  2Q06_Slidesgoodrich  2Q06_Slides
goodrich 2Q06_Slidesfinance44
 
R.R.donnelley FixedIncomeInvestors05/07/08
R.R.donnelley FixedIncomeInvestors05/07/08R.R.donnelley FixedIncomeInvestors05/07/08
R.R.donnelley FixedIncomeInvestors05/07/08finance23
 
Claude Resources Inc. Q4 2012 Conference Call and Webcast Presentation
Claude Resources Inc. Q4 2012 Conference Call and Webcast PresentationClaude Resources Inc. Q4 2012 Conference Call and Webcast Presentation
Claude Resources Inc. Q4 2012 Conference Call and Webcast PresentationClaude Resources Inc.
 
.monsanto 10-10-07
.monsanto 10-10-07.monsanto 10-10-07
.monsanto 10-10-07finance28
 
Monsanto Q4 2007 Financial Results
Monsanto Q4 2007 Financial ResultsMonsanto Q4 2007 Financial Results
Monsanto Q4 2007 Financial Resultsearningsreport
 
monsanto 10-10-07
monsanto 10-10-07monsanto 10-10-07
monsanto 10-10-07finance28
 
monsanto supplemental_toolkit
monsanto supplemental_toolkitmonsanto supplemental_toolkit
monsanto supplemental_toolkitfinance28
 
supplemental_toolkit
supplemental_toolkitsupplemental_toolkit
supplemental_toolkitfinance28
 
monsanto supplemental_toolkit
monsanto  supplemental_toolkitmonsanto  supplemental_toolkit
monsanto supplemental_toolkitfinance28
 
.monsanto supplemental_toolkit
.monsanto  supplemental_toolkit.monsanto  supplemental_toolkit
.monsanto supplemental_toolkitfinance28
 
monsanto supplemental_toolkit
monsanto supplemental_toolkitmonsanto supplemental_toolkit
monsanto supplemental_toolkitfinance28
 
.monsanto supplemental_toolkit
.monsanto  supplemental_toolkit.monsanto  supplemental_toolkit
.monsanto supplemental_toolkitfinance28
 
Financial Analysis - J.C. Penney Company, Inc., through a subsidiary, operat...
 Financial Analysis - J.C. Penney Company, Inc., through a subsidiary, operat... Financial Analysis - J.C. Penney Company, Inc., through a subsidiary, operat...
Financial Analysis - J.C. Penney Company, Inc., through a subsidiary, operat...BCV
 
el paso C0A209DE-4313-4A81-8B00-54550DEAC9E8_Barclays_Fixed_Income_032509
el paso  C0A209DE-4313-4A81-8B00-54550DEAC9E8_Barclays_Fixed_Income_032509el paso  C0A209DE-4313-4A81-8B00-54550DEAC9E8_Barclays_Fixed_Income_032509
el paso C0A209DE-4313-4A81-8B00-54550DEAC9E8_Barclays_Fixed_Income_032509finance49
 
el paso C0A209DE-4313-4A81-8B00-54550DEAC9E8_Barclays_Fixed_Income_032509
el paso  C0A209DE-4313-4A81-8B00-54550DEAC9E8_Barclays_Fixed_Income_032509el paso  C0A209DE-4313-4A81-8B00-54550DEAC9E8_Barclays_Fixed_Income_032509
el paso C0A209DE-4313-4A81-8B00-54550DEAC9E8_Barclays_Fixed_Income_032509finance49
 
goodrich 1Q05_Slides
goodrich  1Q05_Slidesgoodrich  1Q05_Slides
goodrich 1Q05_Slidesfinance44
 
goodrich 1Q05_Slides
goodrich  1Q05_Slidesgoodrich  1Q05_Slides
goodrich 1Q05_Slidesfinance44
 

Similar to Scotiabank. alicorp _02_jan2013_185807_ids_505 (20)

Tricumen / 4Q14 Capital Markets Result Review_open 050315
Tricumen / 4Q14 Capital Markets Result Review_open 050315Tricumen / 4Q14 Capital Markets Result Review_open 050315
Tricumen / 4Q14 Capital Markets Result Review_open 050315
 
goodrich 2Q06_Slides
goodrich  2Q06_Slidesgoodrich  2Q06_Slides
goodrich 2Q06_Slides
 
R.R.donnelley FixedIncomeInvestors05/07/08
R.R.donnelley FixedIncomeInvestors05/07/08R.R.donnelley FixedIncomeInvestors05/07/08
R.R.donnelley FixedIncomeInvestors05/07/08
 
3 q12 presentation final
3 q12 presentation final3 q12 presentation final
3 q12 presentation final
 
3 q12 presentationfinal2
3 q12 presentationfinal23 q12 presentationfinal2
3 q12 presentationfinal2
 
Claude Resources Inc. Q4 2012 Conference Call and Webcast Presentation
Claude Resources Inc. Q4 2012 Conference Call and Webcast PresentationClaude Resources Inc. Q4 2012 Conference Call and Webcast Presentation
Claude Resources Inc. Q4 2012 Conference Call and Webcast Presentation
 
.monsanto 10-10-07
.monsanto 10-10-07.monsanto 10-10-07
.monsanto 10-10-07
 
Monsanto Q4 2007 Financial Results
Monsanto Q4 2007 Financial ResultsMonsanto Q4 2007 Financial Results
Monsanto Q4 2007 Financial Results
 
monsanto 10-10-07
monsanto 10-10-07monsanto 10-10-07
monsanto 10-10-07
 
monsanto supplemental_toolkit
monsanto supplemental_toolkitmonsanto supplemental_toolkit
monsanto supplemental_toolkit
 
supplemental_toolkit
supplemental_toolkitsupplemental_toolkit
supplemental_toolkit
 
monsanto supplemental_toolkit
monsanto  supplemental_toolkitmonsanto  supplemental_toolkit
monsanto supplemental_toolkit
 
.monsanto supplemental_toolkit
.monsanto  supplemental_toolkit.monsanto  supplemental_toolkit
.monsanto supplemental_toolkit
 
monsanto supplemental_toolkit
monsanto supplemental_toolkitmonsanto supplemental_toolkit
monsanto supplemental_toolkit
 
.monsanto supplemental_toolkit
.monsanto  supplemental_toolkit.monsanto  supplemental_toolkit
.monsanto supplemental_toolkit
 
Financial Analysis - J.C. Penney Company, Inc., through a subsidiary, operat...
 Financial Analysis - J.C. Penney Company, Inc., through a subsidiary, operat... Financial Analysis - J.C. Penney Company, Inc., through a subsidiary, operat...
Financial Analysis - J.C. Penney Company, Inc., through a subsidiary, operat...
 
el paso C0A209DE-4313-4A81-8B00-54550DEAC9E8_Barclays_Fixed_Income_032509
el paso  C0A209DE-4313-4A81-8B00-54550DEAC9E8_Barclays_Fixed_Income_032509el paso  C0A209DE-4313-4A81-8B00-54550DEAC9E8_Barclays_Fixed_Income_032509
el paso C0A209DE-4313-4A81-8B00-54550DEAC9E8_Barclays_Fixed_Income_032509
 
el paso C0A209DE-4313-4A81-8B00-54550DEAC9E8_Barclays_Fixed_Income_032509
el paso  C0A209DE-4313-4A81-8B00-54550DEAC9E8_Barclays_Fixed_Income_032509el paso  C0A209DE-4313-4A81-8B00-54550DEAC9E8_Barclays_Fixed_Income_032509
el paso C0A209DE-4313-4A81-8B00-54550DEAC9E8_Barclays_Fixed_Income_032509
 
goodrich 1Q05_Slides
goodrich  1Q05_Slidesgoodrich  1Q05_Slides
goodrich 1Q05_Slides
 
goodrich 1Q05_Slides
goodrich  1Q05_Slidesgoodrich  1Q05_Slides
goodrich 1Q05_Slides
 

More from gro77

Volcan
VolcanVolcan
Volcangro77
 
Reporte especial frontera o emergente (1)
Reporte especial   frontera o emergente (1)Reporte especial   frontera o emergente (1)
Reporte especial frontera o emergente (1)gro77
 
Reporte especial frontera o emergente (1)
Reporte especial   frontera o emergente (1)Reporte especial   frontera o emergente (1)
Reporte especial frontera o emergente (1)gro77
 
Cia. minera milpo s.a.a. resultados 2 t2014 - vf @ pen 2.52 - mantener
Cia. minera milpo s.a.a.   resultados 2 t2014 - vf @ pen 2.52 - mantenerCia. minera milpo s.a.a.   resultados 2 t2014 - vf @ pen 2.52 - mantener
Cia. minera milpo s.a.a. resultados 2 t2014 - vf @ pen 2.52 - mantenergro77
 
WWWBcp rs120814
WWWBcp rs120814WWWBcp rs120814
WWWBcp rs120814gro77
 
Situación perú-3 t142
Situación perú-3 t142Situación perú-3 t142
Situación perú-3 t142gro77
 
Southern copper corp actualización - vf @ usd 30.00 - mantener
Southern copper corp   actualización - vf @ usd 30.00 - mantenerSouthern copper corp   actualización - vf @ usd 30.00 - mantener
Southern copper corp actualización - vf @ usd 30.00 - mantenergro77
 
Graña y montero resultados 2 t2014 - vf @ pen 11.15 - comprar
Graña y montero   resultados 2 t2014 - vf @ pen 11.15 - comprarGraña y montero   resultados 2 t2014 - vf @ pen 11.15 - comprar
Graña y montero resultados 2 t2014 - vf @ pen 11.15 - comprargro77
 
Informe alibaba
Informe alibabaInforme alibaba
Informe alibabagro77
 
Kallpa . val southern24 set 2013
Kallpa . val  southern24 set 2013Kallpa . val  southern24 set 2013
Kallpa . val southern24 set 2013gro77
 
2013 2 t atacocha - credicorp capital
2013 2 t   atacocha - credicorp capital2013 2 t   atacocha - credicorp capital
2013 2 t atacocha - credicorp capitalgro77
 
Reporte mensual agosto.credicorp capital
Reporte mensual agosto.credicorp capitalReporte mensual agosto.credicorp capital
Reporte mensual agosto.credicorp capitalgro77
 
2 t 13 gramonc1 credicorp capital 9 set
2 t 13 gramonc1 credicorp capital 9 set2 t 13 gramonc1 credicorp capital 9 set
2 t 13 gramonc1 credicorp capital 9 setgro77
 
Rio alto . kallpa val 04 set 2013
Rio alto . kallpa val 04 set 2013Rio alto . kallpa val 04 set 2013
Rio alto . kallpa val 04 set 2013gro77
 
Milpo credicorp capital.2013 2 t -
Milpo   credicorp capital.2013 2 t -Milpo   credicorp capital.2013 2 t -
Milpo credicorp capital.2013 2 t -gro77
 
Cementos pacasmayo credicorp capital 2013 2 t -
Cementos pacasmayo   credicorp capital 2013 2 t -Cementos pacasmayo   credicorp capital 2013 2 t -
Cementos pacasmayo credicorp capital 2013 2 t -gro77
 
Volcan credicorp capital 2013 2 t -
Volcan   credicorp capital 2013 2 t -Volcan   credicorp capital 2013 2 t -
Volcan credicorp capital 2013 2 t -gro77
 
2013 2 t casa grande - credicorp capital
2013 2 t   casa grande - credicorp capital2013 2 t   casa grande - credicorp capital
2013 2 t casa grande - credicorp capitalgro77
 
2013 2 t luz del sur - credicorp capital
2013 2 t   luz del sur - credicorp capital2013 2 t   luz del sur - credicorp capital
2013 2 t luz del sur - credicorp capitalgro77
 
Kallpa irl val 21 agosto 13.
Kallpa irl val 21 agosto 13.Kallpa irl val 21 agosto 13.
Kallpa irl val 21 agosto 13.gro77
 

More from gro77 (20)

Volcan
VolcanVolcan
Volcan
 
Reporte especial frontera o emergente (1)
Reporte especial   frontera o emergente (1)Reporte especial   frontera o emergente (1)
Reporte especial frontera o emergente (1)
 
Reporte especial frontera o emergente (1)
Reporte especial   frontera o emergente (1)Reporte especial   frontera o emergente (1)
Reporte especial frontera o emergente (1)
 
Cia. minera milpo s.a.a. resultados 2 t2014 - vf @ pen 2.52 - mantener
Cia. minera milpo s.a.a.   resultados 2 t2014 - vf @ pen 2.52 - mantenerCia. minera milpo s.a.a.   resultados 2 t2014 - vf @ pen 2.52 - mantener
Cia. minera milpo s.a.a. resultados 2 t2014 - vf @ pen 2.52 - mantener
 
WWWBcp rs120814
WWWBcp rs120814WWWBcp rs120814
WWWBcp rs120814
 
Situación perú-3 t142
Situación perú-3 t142Situación perú-3 t142
Situación perú-3 t142
 
Southern copper corp actualización - vf @ usd 30.00 - mantener
Southern copper corp   actualización - vf @ usd 30.00 - mantenerSouthern copper corp   actualización - vf @ usd 30.00 - mantener
Southern copper corp actualización - vf @ usd 30.00 - mantener
 
Graña y montero resultados 2 t2014 - vf @ pen 11.15 - comprar
Graña y montero   resultados 2 t2014 - vf @ pen 11.15 - comprarGraña y montero   resultados 2 t2014 - vf @ pen 11.15 - comprar
Graña y montero resultados 2 t2014 - vf @ pen 11.15 - comprar
 
Informe alibaba
Informe alibabaInforme alibaba
Informe alibaba
 
Kallpa . val southern24 set 2013
Kallpa . val  southern24 set 2013Kallpa . val  southern24 set 2013
Kallpa . val southern24 set 2013
 
2013 2 t atacocha - credicorp capital
2013 2 t   atacocha - credicorp capital2013 2 t   atacocha - credicorp capital
2013 2 t atacocha - credicorp capital
 
Reporte mensual agosto.credicorp capital
Reporte mensual agosto.credicorp capitalReporte mensual agosto.credicorp capital
Reporte mensual agosto.credicorp capital
 
2 t 13 gramonc1 credicorp capital 9 set
2 t 13 gramonc1 credicorp capital 9 set2 t 13 gramonc1 credicorp capital 9 set
2 t 13 gramonc1 credicorp capital 9 set
 
Rio alto . kallpa val 04 set 2013
Rio alto . kallpa val 04 set 2013Rio alto . kallpa val 04 set 2013
Rio alto . kallpa val 04 set 2013
 
Milpo credicorp capital.2013 2 t -
Milpo   credicorp capital.2013 2 t -Milpo   credicorp capital.2013 2 t -
Milpo credicorp capital.2013 2 t -
 
Cementos pacasmayo credicorp capital 2013 2 t -
Cementos pacasmayo   credicorp capital 2013 2 t -Cementos pacasmayo   credicorp capital 2013 2 t -
Cementos pacasmayo credicorp capital 2013 2 t -
 
Volcan credicorp capital 2013 2 t -
Volcan   credicorp capital 2013 2 t -Volcan   credicorp capital 2013 2 t -
Volcan credicorp capital 2013 2 t -
 
2013 2 t casa grande - credicorp capital
2013 2 t   casa grande - credicorp capital2013 2 t   casa grande - credicorp capital
2013 2 t casa grande - credicorp capital
 
2013 2 t luz del sur - credicorp capital
2013 2 t   luz del sur - credicorp capital2013 2 t   luz del sur - credicorp capital
2013 2 t luz del sur - credicorp capital
 
Kallpa irl val 21 agosto 13.
Kallpa irl val 21 agosto 13.Kallpa irl val 21 agosto 13.
Kallpa irl val 21 agosto 13.
 

Scotiabank. alicorp _02_jan2013_185807_ids_505

  • 1. 1 Company Comment Thursday, January 3, 2013, Pre-Market Alicorp SAA (ALICORC1-LM PEN 8.40) Two Acquisitions in Less Than One Week Paul Figueroa Mantero, MSc, MBA Juan Jose Guzman - +51 (1) 211 6000 x16851 +51 (1) 211 6040 x16474 (Scotia Sociedad Agente de Bolsa SA) (Scotia Sociedad Agente de Bolsa SA) juan.guzman@scotiabank.com.pe paul.figueroa@scotiabank.com.pe Rating: 1-Sector Outperform Target 1-Yr: PEN 9.00 ROR 1-Yr: 9.2% Div. (NTM) $0.07 Risk Ranking: Medium Div. (Curr.) $0.07 Valuation: DCF @9.11% Yield (Curr.) 2.2% Key Risks to Target: Commodity prices, political risk. Event Pertinent Revisions ■ Alicorp announced that it has reached an agreement with the New Old shareholders of Industrias TEAL S.A. (Teal) to acquire 99.11% of the Target: total common shares and 93.68% of the total investment shares (shares 1-Yr 9.00 8.60 with no voting rights). The amount of the transaction is PEN 413.9 EPS13E US$0.16 US$0.15 million ($160 million). Implications ■ Through the acquisition, Alicorp seeks to consolidate its leadership within key segments such as bakery, pasta and cookies; and accelerate entry into adjacent categories, such as panettone, candies, and chocolates. We expect synergies through economies of scale, higher productivity and distribution efficiencies. ■ Industrias Teal is an important consumer staples company in Peru with LTM revenues of PEN 264 million (~$102 million) or approximately 6.2% of our estimated consolidated revenue for Alicorp for 2012. ■ Alicorp did not disclosed Teal's net debt or EBITDA margin. However, taking into account industry standards (EBITDA margin of 12% for consumer staples companies in Peru for 2012); the transaction is estimated to be valued between 14x to 15x LTM EV/EBITDA. Recommendation ■ We have increased our one-year target price to PEN 9.00 per share and we reiterate our rating of 1-SO for the common shares of Alicorp on the outlook of higher growth and a more consolidated position in the Consumer Goods business line underpinned by this recent acquisition. Qtly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year P/E Capitalization 2010A $0.03 A $0.04 A $0.03 A $0.01 A $0.12 18.9x Shares O/S (M) 854.6 2011A $0.03 A $0.04 A $0.04 A $0.03 A $0.14 15.5x Market Cap (M) PEN 7,178 2012E $0.05 A $0.03 A $0.04 A $0.04 $0.15 22.4x Float O/S (M) 469.2 2013E $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.16 21.0x Float Value (M) PEN 3,942 (FY-Dec.) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E Earnings/Share $0.09 $0.12 $0.14 $0.15 $0.16 Cash Flow/Share $0.22 $0.24 $0.26 $0.23 $0.28 Price/Earnings 10.6x 18.9x 15.5x 22.4x 21.0x Relative P/E 0.1x 1.1x 1.1x 1.4x 1.3x Revenues (M) $1,281 $1,332 $1,579 $1,653 $2,141 EBITDA (M) $184 $201 $219 $200 $239 Current Ratio 1.4x 1.7x 2.1x 2.1x 1.8x EBITDA/Int. Exp 11.7x 18.0x 14.7x 11.1x 13.1x BVPS13E $1.08 ScotiaView Analyst Link ROE13E 15.56% Historical price multiple calculations use FYE prices. Source: Reuters; company reports; Scotiabank GBM estimates. All values in US$ unless otherwise indicated. Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding. For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures see Appendix A of this report. Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
  • 2. 2 Two Acquisitions in Less Than One Week ■ Alicorp announced that it has reached an agreement with the shareholders of Industrial TEAL S.A. (Teal) to acquire the 99.11% of the total common shares and 93.68% of the total investment shares (shares with no voting rights). The amount of the transaction is of PEN 413.9 million ($160 million). The transaction, which includes the purchase of the well- established brand SAYON, is expected to be completed in January 2013. ■ Industrias Teal is an important consumer staples company in Peru with a diversified portfolio of products which includes flour, pasta, cookies, panettone, chocolates, and candies. The company, which has more than 75 years of operations, owns one plant (20,000 m2) located in Lima and has the capacity to distribute its products throughout the entire country. Exports account to approximately 10% of production and are mainly sold within LatAm countries. Teal is also vertically integrated as it is engaged in the import of wheat and the milling process, manufacturing, and distribution mainly throughout wholesalers and bakeries. ■ Teal posted LTM revenues of PEN 264 million as of November 2012 which account to approximately 6.2% of our estimated consolidated revenue for Alicorp for 2012. ■ Alicorp did not disclosed Teal’s net debt or EBITDA margin. However, taking into account industry standards (EBITDA margin of 12% for consumer staples companies in Peru for 2012); the transaction is estimated to be valued between 14x to 15x LTM EV/EBITDA. ■ Even though, in terms of current LTM multiples, the value of the transaction is above trading peers as they trade at ~13.2x (see our report on peer analysis), we do not believe Alicorp has paid top dollar for Teal. In our view, the transaction should be value accretive for Alicorp as it should add operating synergies through economies of scale, increasing pricing power, higher growth potential, and productivity. ■ We expect higher growth for Teal after the acquisition as it will not only benefit from Alicorp's strong and exclusive distribution system in Peru but from Alicorp’s presence in other countries such as Argentina. We also expect increasing margins, as a family run business such as Teal, should benefit from more efficient processes run by the leading consumer staples company in Peru. ■ We estimate that the transaction will help Alicorp to increase 5% of market share in its flour category and 10% to 12% in its cookies business line which should also help Alicorp to increase its pricing power as well as diversify its brands portfolio, taking advantage of the renowned products of the acquired company. ■ We have increased our one-year target price to PEN 9.00 per share and we reiterate our rating of 1-SO for the common shares of Alicorp on the outlook of higher mid-term growth and a more consolidated position in the Consumer Goods business line underpinned by the recent acquisition of Teal. ScotiaView Analyst Link
  • 3. 3 Appendix A: Important Disclosures Company Ticker Disclosures (see legend below)* Alicorp SAA ALICORC1 M6, VS1 I, Paul Figueroa Mantero, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report in connection with securities or issuers that I analyze accurately reflect my personal views and (2) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this report. This research report was prepared by employees of Scotia Capital Inc. and/or its affiliates who have the title of Analyst. All pricing of securities in reports is based on the closing price of the securities’ principal marketplace on the night before the publication date, unless otherwise explicitly stated. All Equity Research Analysts report to the Head of Equity Research. The Head of Equity Research reports to the Managing Director, Head of Institutional Equity Sales, Trading and Research, who is not and does not report to the Head of the Investment Banking Department. Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets has policies that are reasonably designed to prevent or control the sharing of material non-public information across internal information barriers, such as between Investment Banking and Research. The compensation of the research analyst who prepared this report is based on several factors, including but not limited to, the overall profitability of Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets and the revenues generated from its various departments, including investment banking. Furthermore, the research analyst’s compensation is charged as an expense to various Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets departments, including investment banking. Research Analysts may not receive compensation from the companies they cover. Non-U.S. analysts may not be associated persons of Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. and therefore may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 restrictions on communications with subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by the analysts. For Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Research analyst standards and disclosure policies, please visit gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures. Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Research, 40 King Street West, 33rd Floor, Toronto, Ontario, M5H 1H1. * Legend M6 Paul Figueroa Mantero, an analyst, prepared this report and is an employee of the Research Department of Scotia Sociedad Agente de Bolsa S.A., which is a fully owned subsidiary of Scotiabank Peru. VS1 Our Research Analyst visited Complejo Alicorp Callao, a plant that produces cookies, pasta, detergents, edible oils, and sauces, on October 9, 2012. Full payment was received from the issuer for the travel-related expenses incurred by the Research Analyst to visit this site.
  • 4. 4 Alicorp SAA (ALICORC1) Closing Target- # Date Rating Price 1YR 1 22-Oct-12 PEN 7.71 1-Sector Outperform 8.60 * represents the value(s) that has changed. Numbers are located to the left of the lines they represent. Numbers indicated with a plus sign (+) have more than one target or rating change in the given month.
  • 5. 5 Definition of Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Equity Research Ratings & Risk Rankings We have a three-tiered rating system, with ratings of 1-Sector Outperform, 2-Sector Perform, and 3-Sector Underperform. Each analyst assigns a rating that is relative to his or her coverage universe or an index identified by the analyst that includes, but is not limited to, stocks covered by the analyst. Our risk ranking system provides transparency as to the underlying financial and operational risk of each stock covered. Statistical and judgmental factors considered are: historical financial results, share price volatility, liquidity of the shares, credit ratings, analyst forecasts, consistency and predictability of earnings, EPS growth, dividends, cash flow from operations, and strength of balance sheet. The Director of Research and the Supervisory Analyst jointly make the final determination of all risk rankings. The rating assigned to each security covered in this report is based on the Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets research analyst’s 12-month view on the security. Analysts may sometimes express to traders, salespeople and certain clients their shorter-term views on these securities that differ from their 12-month view due to several factors, including but not limited to the inherent volatility of the marketplace. Ratings Risk Rankings 1-Sector Outperform Low The stock is expected to outperform the average 12-month total return of the Low financial and operational risk, high predictability of financial analyst’s coverage universe or an index identified by the analyst that results, low stock volatility. includes, but is not limited to, stocks covered by the analyst. Medium 2-Sector Perform Moderate financial and operational risk, moderate predictability of The stock is expected to perform approximately in line with the average financial results, moderate stock volatility. 12-month total return of the analyst’s coverage universe or an index High identified by the analyst that includes, but is not limited to, stocks covered by High financial and/or operational risk, low predictability of financial the analyst. results, high stock volatility. 3-Sector Underperform Caution Warranted The stock is expected to underperform the average 12-month total return of Exceptionally high financial and/or operational risk, exceptionally low the analyst’s coverage universe or an index identified by the analyst that predictability of financial results, exceptionally high stock volatility. For risk- includes, but is not limited to, stocks covered by the analyst. tolerant investors only. Other Ratings Venture Tender – Investors are guided to tender to the terms of the takeover offer. Risk and return consistent with Venture Capital. For risk-tolerant investors Under Review – The rating has been temporarily placed under review, until only. sufficient information has been received and assessed by the analyst. Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Equity Research Ratings Distribution* Distribution by Ratings and Equity and Equity-Related Financings* Percentage of companies covered by Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets within each rating category. Percentage of companies within each rating category for which Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets has undertaken an underwriting liability or has provided advice for a fee within the last 12 months. Source: Scotiabank GBM. For the purposes of the ratings distribution disclosure FINRA requires members who use a ratings system with terms different than “buy,” “hold/neutral” and “sell,” to equate their own ratings into these categories. Our 1-Sector Outperform, 2-Sector Perform, and 3-Sector Underperform ratings are based on the criteria above, but for this purpose could be equated to buy, neutral and sell ratings, respectively.
  • 6. 6 General Disclosures This report has been prepared by analysts who are employed by the Research Department of Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets. Scotiabank, together with “Global Banking and Markets,” is a marketing name for the global corporate and investment banking and capital markets businesses of The Bank of Nova Scotia and certain of its affiliates in the countries where they operate, including Scotia Capital Inc. All other trademarks are acknowledged as belonging to their respective owners and the display of such trademarks is for informational use only. Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Research produces research reports under a single marketing identity referred to as “Globally-branded research” under U.S. rules. This research is produced on a single global research platform with one set of rules which meet the most stringent standards set by regulators in the various jurisdictions in which the research reports are produced. In addition, the analysts who produce the research reports, regardless of location, are subject to one set of policies designed to meet the most stringent rules established by regulators in the various jurisdictions where the research reports are produced. This report is provided to you for informational purposes only. This report is not, and is not to be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities and/or commodity futures contracts. The securities mentioned in this report may neither be suitable for all investors nor eligible for sale in some jurisdictions where the report is distributed. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, however, Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to their accuracy or completeness. Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets has policies designed to make best efforts to ensure that the information contained in this report is current as of the date of this report, unless otherwise specified. Any prices that are stated in this report are for informational purposes only. Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets makes no representation that any transaction may be or could have been effected at those prices. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary from the opinions expressed by other departments of Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets or any of its affiliates. Neither Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets nor its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Equity research reports published by Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets are available electronically via: Bloomberg, Thomson Financial/First Call - Research Direct, Reuters, Capital IQ, and FactSet. Institutional clients with questions regarding distribution of equity research should contact us at 1-800-208-7666. This report and all the information, opinions, and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions, and conclusions contained in it be referred to without the prior express consent of Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets. Additional Disclosures Canada: This report is distributed by Scotia Capital Inc., a subsidiary of The Bank of Nova Scotia. DWM Securities Inc. is a subsidiary of The Bank of Nova Scotia and an affiliate of Scotia Capital Inc. Scotia Capital Inc. and DWM Securities Inc. are members of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. DWM Securities Inc. does not provide investment banking services. Chile: This report is distributed by Scotia Corredora de Bolsa Chile S.A., a subsidiary of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Hong Kong: This report is distributed by The Bank of Nova Scotia Hong Kong Branch, which is authorized by the Securities and Future Commission to conduct Type 1, Type 4 and Type 6 regulated activities and regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Mexico: This report is distributed by Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa S.A. de C.V., a subsidiary of the Bank of Nova Scotia. Peru: This report is distributed by Scotia Sociedad Agente de Bolsa S.A., a subsidiary of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Singapore: This report is distributed by The Bank of Nova Scotia Asia Limited, a subsidiary of The Bank of Nova Scotia. The Bank of Nova Scotia Asia Limited is authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, and exempted under Section 99(1)(a),and (b), (c) and (d) of the Securities and Futures Act to conduct regulated activities. United Kingdom and the rest of Europe: Except as otherwise specified herein, this report is distributed by Scotiabank Europe PLC, a subsidiary of the Bank of Nova Scotia. Scotiabank Europe PLC is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA). Scotiabank Europe PLC complies with all the FSA requirements concerning research and the associated disclosures and these are indicated on the research where applicable. United States: This report is distributed by Scotia Capital (USA) Inc., a subsidiary of Scotia Capital Inc., and a registered U.S. broker-dealer. All transactions by a U.S. investor of securities mentioned in this report must be effected through Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. Non-U.S. investors wishing to effect a transaction in the securities discussed in this report should contact a Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets entity in their local jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise.