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488 Project

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488 Project 488 Project Presentation Transcript

  • Comm 488 - Washington Post“Campaign 2012: Because its never too early to start thinking about it.”
  • WaPo general trends for 2012• The Washington Post is very unbiased in its writing, stating ideas and then reminding the public than anything can happen in the next year and a half• Common trends: • The battle for the Midwest is changing politics • Hispanic voters could be problematic for Republicans • Celebrity politics- Trump and Palin
  • Washington Post’s Republican Field “If no one is an immediate frontrunner, I think you might see a whole new cast of Republican candidates within the Mike Huckabee next couple months,” said DeMint, who reiterated that he will not run. He Sarah Palin Bobby Jindal declined to name anyone but said there were potentially good candidates among the nation’s Republican governors. Jeb Bush John Thune Mitch DanielsHaley Barbour Mitt Romney Newt Gingrinch Rick Santorum Marco Rubio Tim Pawlenty
  • Iowa Caucus• GOP presidential prospects court Iowa conservatives• Attack President Obama’s policies• Gauge the mood of the most conservative wing of the GOP base• Michele Bachmann lit up the gathering with a rapid-fire denunciation of the president• Most speakers had problems with statement by Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels who has called for a truce on cultural issues • Because of the need to focus on what he sees as a looming fiscal crisis
  • Evangelical Voters• Potential Republican presidential candidates court evangelicals• Must evangelical vote to win the caucus • Parishioners are listening closely to politicians’ stand on the issues, particularly marriage and abortion.• Tougher competition in Iowa for candidates like Huckabee • Potential candidates Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Sarah Palin also have appeal to evangelical voters
  • Other GOP Themes• Who is signing on with who • Aids that are signing on signal who will run • CAUTION: No formal decisions yet• Obama/ Economy and Government• Need for a unifier
  • Obama coverage in WaPo• Deficit problems - Obama’s misleading claim• Losing young voter interest • White House seeks to reconnect with young voters• In a generic PEW poll, Obama runs ahead • However, there’s still a year and a half to go, and 16% undecided.• The same poll also says Romney and Huckabee are leading Rep. candidates • Romney: older, wealthier Republicans • Huckabee: Evangelical Protestants• Libya
  • Politico• Cautious, broad approach to the Republican field, with an emphasis on states with early primaries • Cover many candidates in a “Candidate Hub” on the front of their “2012 LIVE” page. Under each name, Politico adds the most recent public event on their schedule, and then lists recent stories about the potential candidate. • In order of appearance: Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Donald Trump, Haley Barbour, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Chris Cristie, Gary Johnson, Barack Obama, Herman Cain, Rudy Giuliani, Mitch Daniels, Jim DeMint, John Bolton, George Pataki • “Early State Insider” pages for Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada• Covers recent statements from potential candidates, fundraising efforts and trips to early states, as well as gaffs or insider drama• Obama covered as a candidate differs from coverage as president - 2012 LIVE looks only at fundraising and polls• Obama also covered through attacks made by potential Republican candidates
  • Politico’s Republican Field Sarah Palin Tim Pawlenty Donald Trump Mike Huckabee Rudy Guliani Rick Santorum Ron Paul Jon Huntsman Haley Barbour Newt Gingrinch Mitt Romney Chris Cristie Michelle Mitch Daniels Herman Cain Gary Johnson George Pataki Jim DeMint John Bolton
  • What they’re saying now“President Obama gave his first national address on Libya Monday night.Heres what the GOP presidential hopefuls had to say.• Sarah Palin on Fox News: "He did not articulate really what our purpose was except some inconsistent humanitarian effort there. ... He did not make the case for this intervention."• John Bolton on Fox News: "The speech was a dogs breakfast as far as I was concerned. It wasnt much that was new and what was new was trivial. ... I thought it was pathetic."• Rudy Giuliani on CNN: "The presidents speech tonight has made things even murkier than they were before. The whole purpose of this was to clarify our mission. Our mission is just internally contradictory."• Donald Trump on CNN: "Well I think hes trying hard, hes under a lot of stress, its not an easy situation. I really do want to know these people were fighting for, who they are. ... "I hear theyre aligned with Iran."
  • FiveThirtyEight•Cautious coverage of polling data and national trends •There’s Nothing Special about Ohio •Models Can Be Superficial in Politics, Too•“Reads and Reactions” includes a weekly summary of Nate’s posts, and responses to them by other bloggers and news organizations, supporting the community of online news• Talks about candidates potential in early states - Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada - focuses on Romney, Palin, Pawlenty as frontrunners • Uses Intrade to assess possibility of frontrunners winning Iowa - The Talented Mr. Romney• Coverage of Obama looks at impact of recent administration decisions polling data • Libya
  • Hot Air• Less coverage of 2012 than Politico or FiveThirtyEight, dominant theme is that Obama is wrong• Headlines at the top, Hot Links to many other conservative oriented blogs and news sources - Reposts and adds commentary to stories from other sources•Comments on polling data on the large Republican field •Gallup: Huckabee leading a broad GOP pack•Seemingly less focused on Republican field than 538 or Politico - instead, mostly a collection of any negative story about Obama. •“Obamateurism of the Day”
  • Analog vs Digital• How does the tone differ between online and analog news? • FiveThirtyEight and Hot Air have a more casual tone than Washington Post or Politico - talk directly to readers and encourage comments and feedback • Tone is not necessarily a reflection of online or analog, so much as the goal of the organization• What is more or less compelling about the approach of the online sources? • Ability to start a conversation - both between readers and across blogs• If you were a candidate, where would you want to focus your efforts? • Blogs are more likely to attract niche readers • Washington “insiders” on Politico, statistics nerds on 538, conservative base on Hot Air • “Analog” news may still reach a greater number of swing voters • However, a good blog post can generate more news than a single news story • Reblogs with reactions and added commentary