Conversion expectation is what conversion rate you would expect at any given point in time, assuming your marketing activities are what you would normally do.
This may not mean that much yet, but let’s break this down:
Conversion rate – as you would expect this is the ratio of people visiting your site or a section of your site compared to sales (or upgrades or leads, or requests)
Expect – lets leave this to the end
Any given point in time – Conversion rates are seasonal, and highly correlated with demand levels. More people have a propensity to convert in peak periods and less in lower periods. This means that conversion rates vary based on a point on the seasonal curve.
Your marketing activities – your marketing actually has a large impact on conversion. Key factors are (but not limited to):
Traffic levels – the more traffic you receive, the lower the conversion rate
Offers – the better the offer, the higher the conversion rate
Product changes – if your product improves, so does your conversion rate
Media mix – different media channels deliver different quality of inbound traffic and hence conversion rate
What you would normally do – if you took all of the above into account and factored out the influence of time and marketing activities – what would your conversion rate look like?
Coming back to the term expect: what would you expect your conversion rate to be if you standardised the influence of time and the influence of marketing activities. This becomes quite a powerful concept – it allows you to predict what your conversion rate would be at any given day or week of the year – and allows you to predict the impact if you were to factor back in marketing activities.