Presented by L.A.OGALLO at the Biennial Conference 2012.

1. CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPLICATIONS ON FOOD
AND AGRICUTURE IN
AFRICA
L.A.OGALLO
IGAD CLIMATE AND APPLICATIONS
CENTRE (ICPAC)
www.icpac.net
and Department of Meteorology,
University of Nairobi

2. IGAD CLIMATE AND
APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC)
8 IGAD MEMBERS PLUS TANZANIA, RWANDA AND BURUNDI
30
Sudan Eritrea
20
Djibouti
10
Ethiopia
0
Somalia
Uganda
-1 0
-2 0
Kenya
Rwanda Burundi
-3 0 Tanzania
-1 0 0 10 20 30 40 50

3. Key issues
• Climate change and food / Agriculture
• Tomorrow’s Climate (2030; 2070, 2100, 2300,--- )
Africa (Climate change) and potential
implications
• Past / present climates and impacts on food /
Agriculture? (Natural vs Anthropogenic Climate
Change)
• Building resilient climate smart systems for
climate proofing food and agriculture in Africa
• Roles of universities and research institutions

4. Today’s climate ( Current Baselines of
the African climate)
•Most of the Continent has arid and
semi arid climates (climate key risk)
•Most livelihoods are rain dependent
•Water key stress (most water sources
from under ground, rain , rivers from glacial
mountains and wetter areas; inter territorial
rivers (Shared river basins)

5. ARID AND SEMI ARID lands(ASALs) cover over 70%

6. Examples of past and
present climates in Africa

8. Mean African compared to other regions, IPCC

9. Min Temperature at one location, Kenya Seasonal rainfall
16
14
12
Minimum Temperature(Deg. C)
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jan-62
Jan-68
Jan-72
Jan-78
Jan-04
Jan-60
Jan-64
Jan-66
Jan-70
Jan-74
Jan-76
Jan-80
Jan-82
Jan-84
Jan-86
Jan-88
Jan-90
Jan-92
Jan-94
Jan-96
Jan-98
Jan-00
Jan-02
Month/Year
Zone 14 (Kabete)
Seasonal rainfall
60
50
Mean MAM decadal rainfall (mm)
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
years
Decadal variability

10. Kilimanjaro glaciers melting
Complete disappearance of
Kilimanjaro’s glaciers by 2020

11. Summary of past / present
climates in AFICA
•Warming trends
•Changes in space-time patterns
of the rainfall
•Changes in Climate extremes eg
frequency, severity, on set /
cessation dates, etc.
•Serious Data / knowledge gaps

12. IMPACTS OF PAST /
PRESENT CLIMATES on
•Food and
Agriculture (+ Livestock)
(IPCC Assessments and special
report on extremes) ; Agriculture
experts have more strengths

14. DISATERS AND DEVELOPMENT TODAY
14

15. Hazards frequency Affected society: Drought,
epidemics, floods
Affected
Drought leads
Frequency
epidemics
,drought
floods
Deaths
Epidemics
Drought

16. CAUSES OF NEGATIVE
IMPACTS
•Hazards droughts, floods, and
other climate extremes real
•High level of vulnerability
•Low capacity
•Most hazards turn to Disasters
•Future change will be
devastation with out adaptation

17. CLIMATE OF TOMORROW in Africa
WILL BE DETERMINED BY:
• Population
• Economic development
• Energy production and energy
consumption
• Science and Technology
• Land use
• Policies, etc

18. Desertification; environment degradation patterns;
etc
Population;
urbanization, etc.

20. Temperature and Precipitation Changes over Africa
Temperature and precipitation changes over Africa.
Differences between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099, averaged over 21 GCMs

22. Vulnerability of the African Continent

23. Vulnerability of the African Continent

24. Roles of Universities and
research institutions
(research)
•Local Knowledge of climate
and EXTREMES and their
interactions with vulnerability
and capacity factors

25. Research Gaps
•Development and diffusion of Science
and technology innovations required to
address the regional climate changes
needs and Gaps including regional
climate science / local scenarios
required for climate risk reduction
(impacts, vulnerability, mitigation and
adaptation) eg Geoengineering
• Resources for research , S & T
innovations (1% investment)

26. Climate proofing of Agriculture
– Research, knowledge, S $ T innovations
– Drought Resistant Varieties; livestock, forestry
– Intercropping and diversification
– Crop / Seed varieties
– Diversification of livelihood options
– Climate Hot spots mapping
– Integration of climate information in Food and
Agriculture Prediction and early warning
– Water , agriculture and related policies
– Disaster risk reduction and climate change
adaptation strategy
– Capacity building / Community Based

27. Other key issues
•Observations and Data base
•Local scenarios ; Monitoring, and Early Warning
Systems
•Capacity (human, technical, Computing,
Risk modelling, ---)
•Policies / implementation
•Education, awareness, networking
•Weak national Institutions
•Networking, Coordination and Collaboration
•Roles of local / indigenous knowledge
•Water availability

28. Opportunities on
CLIMATE CHANGE
Studies AVAILABLE
AT ICPAC