During the 2016 National Regional Transportation Conference, Pat Steed shared the Heartland Regional Transportation Planning Organization's innovative approach to including economic and land use forecasting in its transportation model.
4. Where Will Our Future Take Us?
Source: 1000 Friends of Florida
Developed land
Conserved land
20602005
5. Sources: 2009 BEBR and the 2010 Census Release at http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/index.php, US Census Bureau
County/Area 1990 2000
% Change 1990-
2000 2010
% Change 2000-
2010
DeSoto 23,865 32,209 34.96% 34,862 8.24%
Hardee 19,499 26,938 38.15% 27,731 2.94%
Highlands 68,432 87,366 27.67% 98,786 13.07%
Okeechobee 29,627 35,910 21.21% 39,996 11.38%
Polk 405,382 483,924 19.37% 602,095 24.42%
Five County Region 546,805 666,347 21.86% 803,470 20.58%
Glades 7,591 10,576 39.32% 12,884 21.82%
Hendry 25,773 36,210 40.50% 39,140 8.09%
Seven County Region 580,169 713,133 22.92% 855,494 19.96%
Florida 12,938,071 15,982,824 23.53% 18,801,310 17.63%
Nation 248,718,302 281,424,603 13.15% 308,745,538 9.71%
Heartland 2060 Population Change
6. Business retention and
attraction
Topic areas:
Opportunities for youth
Meeting future industry
skills needs
Mix of employment
opportunities
Task Force:
Economic
Diversification
Infrastructure to
Support Diversified
Economy
Early Learning, K-16,
Lifelong Education
Key Issues:
Opportunities for
children of the
Heartland to learn and
work locally
Expand access to adult
education, alternative
learning, and lifelong
improvement
Creating a 2060
workforce today and
tomorrow
Utilities (including
broadband)
Topic areas:
Transportation
Energy infrastructure
Business climate
Improve low graduation
and achievement rates
Education, Workforce, and Economic Development
7. Water supply
Topic areas:
Water quality
Conservation, drought
protection, and water
storage
Restoration and
management
Task Force:
Water
Sustainable and Viable
Natural Systems
Agriculture
Energy/Climate Change
Key Issues:
Sustainability
Changing markets
Linkage to conservation
Conservation (species
and habitat)
Topic areas:
Management (fire,
water, habitat,
recreational)
Integrity of natural
systems (preservation
and restoration)
Future energy
production
Clean energy
Carbon impacts
Migration from the
coast
Way of life
Task Force: Environment and Natural Resources
8. Promote healthy
communities
Topic areas:
Improve access to and
quality of health care
Expand health care
industry
Task Force:
Health Care
Cultural Identity
Key Issues:
Topic areas:
Maintain existing strong
sense of community
Maintain rural character
with access to desirable
urban amenities
Expand cultural
opportunities to
increase retention of
youth
Community Resources
9. Balance in urban land
uses and conservation
land uses
Topic areas:
Transportation systems
prevent fragmentation
of natural systems
Infrastructure supports
sustainable agriculture
Land use supports a
sustainable economy
and a sustainable
environment
Task Force:
Integrating with
Natural Resources
Planning
Supporting Economic
Development
Ensuring Multimodal
Connectivity
Enhancing and
Creating Sustainable
Communities
Key Issues:
Creating multimodal
corridors
Connecting the
Heartland with other
regions
Moving people by rail,
roads, and transit
Land use to support
2060 economy
Topic areas:
Moving people to
support 2060 economy
Moving goods to
support 2060 economy
Promoting energy
efficient land use
patterns
Supporting
redevelopment
Housing affordability
and sense of place
within established
communities
Improvements to serve
the needs of new
communities
Moving freight by rail,
roads, and air
Linking transportation
and land use to support
2060 economy
Transportation and Land Use
10. Linking Land Use & Transportation
• Connections between
growth and development
and transportation access
• Planning land use and
transportation to sustain
viable natural systems
• Enhancing mobility while
preserving community
character
• Linking visioning to land use
and transportation planning
11. Heartland 2060 Consortium Grant Activities
• Natural Resource
Database
• Transportation Model
• LUCIS Land Use
Model
• Population
Projections
• Employment
Projections
• Scenarios Modeling
• Public Engagement
• 5-Year Strategic
Action Plan
12. Goals of the Five-Year
Comprehensive Economic
Development Strategy (CEDS)
19 Goals
Sorted by Pillar
Heartland
Modeling
14. Metrics Used:
• Average Annual Wage
• High School
Graduation Rates
• 8th Grade Math
Performance
• Gross Domestic
Product
• Bed Tax Collections
• Trade Exports And
Imports
• Annual Building
Permits
• Vehicle Miles
Traveled
• Per Lane Mile
• Average Annual
Unemployment
Rates
• Employment By
Industry
• Wages By
Industry
• Millage Rates
• Registered Nonprofit
Organizations (501
(C)(3) Only)
• Voter Participation
• Per Capita Income
• House Cost Index
• Persons Living In
Poverty
• Population Counts,
Estimates And
Projections
16. Where Will Future Jobs Be Located?
• Regional employment centers—existing & new
• Economically
productive rural lands
– Agriculture
– Renewable energy
– Mining
– Military
18. Principles Inherent in Each “Future”
• Heartland Core Values – #1
priority
• Regional employment centers –
Emphasizes regional strengths
• Differs significantly from other
“Futures” in measurable ways
• Minimizes negative impacts on
environment
• Decisions based on good data
19. Economic Diversification:
Employers clustered in healthcare and natural resources
DeSoto
Wal-Mart Distribution (502) DeSoto Medical Hospital (300)
Peace River Citrus
(140)
Bethel Farms
(87)
Sorrels Bros Packing
(75)
Glades
Moore Haven Correctional
(219)
Lykes Bros
(100)
Brighton Seminole Bingo (80)
Glades Electric Co-op
(65)
A Duda & Sons
(25)
Hardee
Florida Institute for
Rehabilitation (550)
Walmart
(288)
MOSAIC
(277)
C.F. Industries
(175)
Peace River Electric
(137)
Hendry
US Sugar Corp
(1,800)
Southern Gardens
(261)
A Duda & Sons
(250)
Hendry Hospital Authority
(140)
Alico Citrus/Cattle
(128)
Highlands
Florida Hospital Heartland
(1,300)
Highlands Regional Medical
Center (500)
Cross Country Auto Services
(500)
Wal-Mart
(450)
Medical Data Systems (387)
Okeechobee
Columbia Raulerson Hospital
(365)
Walpole, Inc.
(300)
Larson Dairy, Inc.
(225)
McArthur Farms, Inc.
(160)
Okeechobee Health (140)
Polk
Publix Super Markets (9,500)
Wal-mart
(5,100)
Lakeland Regional Medical
Center (4,600)
MOSAIC
(4,500)
Winter Haven Hospital
(2,500)
Healthcare Sector Natural Resources Sector
Source: Enterprise Florida, 2008. Top Private Employers by County.
22. Cluster Analysis
Renewable
Energy
Research &
Developme
nt
Agriculture Logistics
Life
Sciences &
Healthcare
Tourism &
Ecotourism
Alternativ
e Fuels
Energy
Productio
n
Agricultur
e Business
&
Technolog
y
Manufacturing
Advanced
Manufacturi
ng
Healthcare
Agriculture
Services
TODAY
TOMORROW
23. Employment Projections
County
DeSoto
Glades
Hardee
Hendry
Highlands
Okeechobee
Polk
Employment projections (REMI PI+ using custom population
projections) for each Future by…
• Accommodation and Food
Services
• Administrative and Waste
Management Services
• Arts, Entertainment, and
Recreation
• Construction
• Educational Services
• Farm
• Federal Civilian
• Federal Military
• Finance and Insurance
• Forestry, Fishing, and Related
Activities
• Health Care and Social
Assistance
• Information
• Management of Companies
and Enterprises
• Manufacturing
• Mining
• Other Services, except Public
Administration
• Professional, Scientific, and
Technical Services
• Real Estate and Rental and
Leasing
• Retail Trade
• State and Local Government
• Transportation and
Warehousing
• Utilities
• Wholesale Trade
Year
2010
2011
2012
2013…
2060
Industry
25. A future that…
Resembles the Present.
“If we continue with business-as-usual, including
healthcare, natural resources, and ecotourism, then we
can expect our future to look like…”
• Following current and
historical trends in:
o population
o employment
o land use
• Continuing economic
prominence of
agriculture, healthcare,
mining, warehousing,
ecotourism, and
service industries
27. “If we focus on supplying technologies and goods that
create energy and become energy exporters, then we
can expect our future to look like…”
A future that is…
Focused on Energy.
• Developing an
alternative fuels
industry based on
agriculture
• Manufacturing and
installing renewable
energy technologies
• Using high-tech energy
technologies to
become an energy
exporter
• Energy efficiency and
conservation
technologies
28. Renewable
Energy
Research &
Development
Healthcare &
Life Sciences
Tourism &
Ecotourism
Energy
Production
Agriculture
Agriculture
Business &
Technology
Alternative
Fuels
Logistics
Manufacturing
Advanced
Manufacturing
…logistics &
manufacturing
Regional Economic Engines:
29. A future that is…
Making & Moving Goods.
“If we focus on employment hubs for manufacturing,
transportation, and warehousing, then we can expect
our future to look like…”
• Using current and
future industrial areas
and logistics and trade
networks
• Maintaining high
capacity transportation
networks for moving
goods
• Enhancing distribution
of air cargo
• Connecting ports
• Establishing advanced
manufacturing and
warehousing facilities
30. Futures Modeling
Employment projections are necessary to:
• Spatially allocate projected future employment
• Determine associated land use requirements
• Understand impacts to other aspects of scenario
modeling (i.e. – traffic analysis, housing demand,
land use, infrastructure, etc.)
31. Future: [ example – “Energy Economy” ]
< Brief description of the Future being assessed, such as: “a future making and exporting energy
and renewable energy technologies…” >
<Relative advantage #1>
<Relative advantage #2>
Positive impacts: (opportunities)
<Relative disadvantage #1>
<Relative disadvantage #2>
Negative impacts: (risks)
Community
Resources
Transportation &
Land Use
Environment &
Natural Resources
Education, Workforce,
& Economic
Development
<Some qualitative
comparison of this
Future relative to
the others>
Example assessment of Future(s)
32.
33. Future 1:
Current
Economy
Future 2:
Energy
Economy
Future 3:
Logistics
Economy
Future 4:
Health-based
Economy
Heartland
Future
Visioning
Scenario Planning vs. Resilient Region
Planning
Our
current
path
Potential
different
futures:
How are
they
different?
What do
we gain?
What are
the
tradeoffs?
Resilient Region:
A tool for decision-makers:
• Where do all futures agree?
• Where do they disagree?
• Maximize potential opportunities?
• Minimize potential risks?
44. LUCIS and Scenario
Modeling
Land Use Conflict Identification and
Subsequent Spatial Allocation of Future
Development
Heartland
Modeling
45. LUCIS Land Use Conflict Identification Strategy
Main Purpose
– highlight where potential conflicts may occur in the
future between competing uses of the land – agriculture,
conservation, urban
– scenario planning and visioning tool
Incorporates
– Land use suitability analysis
• a process of identifying the most appropriate location and
distribution of future land uses
– Community and expert input
• to establish goals, objectives and sub-objectives
• prioritize model outputs in the final analysis
46. Review: Scenarios and Scenario Planning
Present
Business-as-Usual, Trend
Scenario
Alternative Future
48. Review: Alternative Future Scenario Modeling
Ecological significance
(examples)
Water recharge
Large mammal corridors
Watershed protection
Bird and animal habitat
Etc.
The weighting
process happens
here.
Suitability becomes
local Preference.
49. LUCIS: Area-based and Economic Weights
Three weights combine: Land Use, Economic, and Technical
50. Combine into Aggregate Suitability
Surface
35.2% 8.3%11.1%12.7%15.7%6.4%10.5%
Note: These are the
actual weights for urban
suitability
*
( TIP: Follow the
asterisk through the
next few slides. )
60. Standard Transportation Model
• Cube Voyager
• Zonal Data from Heartland 2060 (interim 2040)
– Employment Forecast—spatial GIS
– Population Forecast—spatial GIS
– Land Use Availability
– Environmental Avoidance
• Modal Options
All from models developed under
61. 10.2 Miles of regional
roadway were over
capacity in 2014.
65. Public engagement on LRTP
+5,800 website visits
44 workshop participants
38 committee members
+14 media stories
48 focus group participants
+10,000 reach on
Facebook
The lists at the top represent different data layers within each major grouping (Ag, Urban, Ecological Significance). These data layers are then combined into one single dataset for each grouping. This happens through the weighting process.
These are the Area-based and Economic weights for Urban Areas, as determined by coverage (for area-based) and just value per area (for economic). These represent relative importance between the land uses.
Combining the area, economic, and community weights creates the Aggregate Subject Matter Preference Map. There are three of these total: Agriculture, Urban, and Ecological Significance.
Each maps have values that range from 1-9, signifying increasing levels of preference for that land use type. It is important to note that by incorporating the weights, we have transformed a suitability map into a preference map. Does that make sense to everyone?
Follow the blue asterisk into the next slide.
These are the Aggregated Subject Matter Preference maps and how LUCIS detects “conflict”. Each preference map’s original 1-9 ranking is compressed into a more simplified 1-3 ranking. <Explain how>
This allows a quick determination of conflict between different land use preferences.
LUCIS compares the three Aggregate Subject Matter Preference Maps to determine the appropriate location for land use allocation in future scenarios.
This is an example.
<Explain this example and how each bit is iterated to the next “least conflict area”.>
<Explain how this is also carried out for Agriculture and Ecological Significance areas, too. >
This is where the criteria that determine the difference between alternative future scenarios come into play, in determining how much of each land use will be allocated in each iteration, and which one will have preference over another (as in the case
of “high conflict” areas).
