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Web 2.0: Lies, Mystery, and Opportunity

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  • This, probably is the first 100+slider that I have paid attention to! Brilliantly explained..Rolf, thanks for the insights.
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  • I really enjoyed the presentation, the message, the structure and the format.
    I don't regret my 403 mouse clicks. in fact, I made it 404 and voted up.
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  • Like it - voted 'UP'
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  • The topic web 2.0 has gone over the board to be very honest...anyways, nice presentation....keep it up
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  • anyone else doing what slide 317 (or others) suggest?

    Love to hear about it and I might include it in updates to this deck!
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  • 1. Web 2.0: Lies, Mystery, and Opportunity Rolf Skyberg [email_address] Disruptive Innovator for eBay, Inc. Monday, 16 June 2008
  • 2. I often get asked:
  • 3. “ what exactly does a disruptive innovator do? ”
  • 4. I am tempted to say,
  • 5. I innovate,
  • 6. disruptively.
  • 7. but that’s simplifying things.
  • 8. I do innovate disruptively,
  • 9. but I also have the roots of an evangelist,
  • 10. and it’s in the combination of the two,
  • 11. that I can be most effective.
  • 12. sometimes, my disruption is the innovation
  • 13. sometimes, my innovation is the disruption
  • 14. more to the point,
  • 15. the wider I can spread new ways of looking at the world,
  • 16. the more disruption I can cause, by proxy.
  • 17. and hopefully, that disruption
  • 18. starts with you.
  • 19. last year I told you about
  • 20. horses,
  • 21. radios,
  • 22. birds,
  • 23. dishwashers,
  • 24. and France.
  • 25. this year will be
  • 26. no different.
  • 27. I also told you
  • 28. that you should sell hotdogs,
  • 29. imagine the social aspects of your business eat shop
  • 30. and to stop being fascinated
  • 31. that your toilet is internet enabled.
  • 32. of course, not to mention,
  • 33. my favorite slide
  • 34. the electric jock strap.
  • 35.  
  • 36. this year I'm going to tell you a new story
  • 37. twice as shocking as the electric jockstrap,
  • 38. and no less important.
  • 39. it starts, now:
  • 40. The Lie (we all wanted to believe)
  • 41. the title of my presentation last year was:
  • 42. "Web 2.0: Why We Got Here and What's Next"
  • 43. I remember thinking as I stood before you
  • 44. "well isn't Web 2.0 a little dated?
  • 45. “ isn't it kinda already over?"
  • 46. but based on the reception I received,
  • 47. the message that I gave was right on target.
  • 48. I'm going to start this presentation
  • 49. by reminding you of last year's message,
  • 50. "Web 2.0 is great and all,
  • 51. but it can be even better if you fulfill needs.”
  • 52. perhaps the part of the previous sentence left off
  • 53. is the why .
  • 54. of course it's implied:
  • 55. by fulfilling needs, you increase your business
  • 56. and therefore profit.
  • 57. but what if you're not generating any profit in the first place?
  • 58. what if you’re just starting out?
  • 59. is Web 2.0 still the path to riches?
  • 60. this morning I'm going to paint you a picture
  • 61. of where others have left off
  • 62. and your opportunity begins.
  • 63. maybe I should have entitled this session:
  • 64. Web 2.0: show me the money
  • 65. so let's start with a story:
  • 66. since ancient times
  • 67. it was known that rubbing a piece of amber jewelry
  • 68. with a patch of fur
  • 69. could create an electric shock
  • 70. specifically, the rubbing would create static electricity.
  • 71. an imbalance of electrons
    • +
    + + + + + + _ _ _ _ _ _ + _ _
  • 72. wanting to “jump back” from where they came from. + + + + + + + _ _ _ _ _ _ + _ _
  • 73. you've probably been shocked
  • 74. when exiting your car
  • 75. even though your seat is not made of amber,
  • 76. and your backside is not covered in fur.
  • 77. for a long while,
  • 78. static electricity was regarded as a curiosity:
  • 79. something known, but not understood.
  • 80. in the 1700's experiments started in earnest
  • 81. and scientists got pretty adept at creating a charge
  • 82. but they still didn't know what to do with it.
  • 83. so, they took turns igniting tins of alcohol,
  • 84. shocking themselves and each other,
  • 85. lining up monks in a mile-long row
  • 86. and shocking them,
  • 87. shocking birds and beasts at a distance,
  • 88. and even lining up 900 soldiers
  • 89. having them hold hands
  • 90. and shocking the wits out of them
  • 91. for the amusement of the royalty.
  • 92. electrity was great,
  • 93. a fun party game
  • 94. but what to do with it?
  • 95. they made all sorts of fascinating devices
  • 96. some for shocking
  • 97. some for sending sparks shooting across the room
  • 98. one was a tiny cannon you filled with swamp gas,
  • 99. corked the end, and ignited with a spark.
  • 100. heady with passion of the era,
  • 101. embracing both the ducats
  • 102. and the time's discoveries,
  • 103. these illustrious researchers
  • 104. created a series of fantastic contraptions.
  • 105. their elaborate machines
  • 106. were financed by the kings and queens,
  • 107. or lords and barons
  • 108. (some of whom they were themselves)
  • 109. and often drew a large audience,
  • 110. or at least the consternation of popes.
  • 111. and yet, electricity was still a novelty:
  • 112. while these machines might be good
  • 113. at making dead frogs dance,
  • 114. hardly was this a path to riches.
  • 115. the real value of electricity
  • 116. wouldn't be known for another 150 years,
  • 117. when someone figured out how
  • 118. to turn it into a reliable light source.
  • 119. shocking each other was amusing
  • 120. for a century and a half,
  • 121. but darkness itself was the problem electricity was to eventually solve.
  • 122. let me tell you another story
  • 123. with a similar beginning,
  • 124. and a twist near the end.
  • 125. in the dark days following the first dot-com bust
  • 126. the world was flush with opportunity:
  • 127. massive investment
  • 128. in internet-delivered dog food
  • 129. was now sunk cost
  • 130. and the raw materials for growth
  • 131. were abundant.
  • 132. one raw material was the trained professionals
  • 133. and as you would expect:
  • 134. with no dot-com to boom,
  • 135. they were bored.
  • 136. the curious among them started picking up the pieces
  • 137. mashing them together in interesting ways
  • 138. and creating new fantastic machines.
  • 139. eventually they needed help,
  • 140. and additional dollars,
  • 141. and it wasn't long before the engineers and VCs came
  • 142. attracted by a hunger
  • 143. to be part of the next big thing.
  • 144. the gadgets with promise
  • 145. attracted the most attention,
  • 146. and collectively began to take shape.
  • 147. whatever that thing was with the old web,
  • 148. this new one is awesom r !
  • 149. instead of watching dead frogs dance
  • 150. you could view numa numa dance on YouTube
  • 151. let your friends know through Digg,
  • 152. bookmark it with del.icio.us,
  • 153. spam your contacts on their myspace wall
  • 154. all while snapping photos of their reaction
  • 155. to then post on Flickr
  • 156. and what was the twist?
  • 157. lumbering giants of the first internet age awoke
  • 158. reached for their wallets
  • 159. and plonked down fat stacks of cash.
  • 160. these new startups should fit nicely
  • 161. with their existing cash streams.
  • 162. suddenly, the new exit strategy wasn't an IPO
  • 163. it was getting bought out.
  • 164. create a machine that's fantastic enough
  • 165. and somebody wealthier than you
  • 166. will step in and make your dreams come true.
  • 167. yippeee!
  • 168. massing their arsenal,
  • 169. the remaining entrepreneurial among them
  • 170. smelled the fortune and dove in with both feet.
  • 171. the lie we all wanted to believe
  • 172. was that all it takes is a quirky idea,
  • 173. grab some pieces,
  • 174. and a whole lot of pastel graphics.
  • 175. then,
  • 176. step 4 profit!
  • 177. and perhaps it wasn't a lie really,
  • 178. nobody told us that we'd attain fame and fortune
  • 179. but we hoped,
  • 180. we believed.
  • 181. we watched a lucky few come up all cherries
  • 182. in round two of the web.
  • 183. yet some held back
  • 184. “ I don't get it,” they'd say
  • 185. “I don't believe it,” said others.
  • 186. the skeptics were unswayed by the new web
  • 187. at lunch time, the old guard and new guard would spar:
  • 188. "how are you going to make money showing videos on the internet?"
  • 189. "doesn't matter!” they reply,
  • 190. "we'll just put some ads on it!"
  • 191. and therein lay the mystery:
  • 192. if the coffers of Web 1.0
  • 193. wouldn't cough up the cash for all of their projects
  • 194. how were they going to make money?
  • 195. it's wonderful if you can create: the next social network around categorizing and tagging media via your mobile phone
  • 196. but is anybody going to pay to use it?
  • 197. The Mystery (of what to do next)
  • 198. problem was,
  • 199. many of these fantastic machines
  • 200. were novel toys,
  • 201. stunning in their own right,
  • 202. but still largely
  • 203. flights of fancy.
  • 204. they were solutions without problems,
  • 205. or at least:
  • 206. solutions without problems people would be willing to pay for,
  • 207. yet.
  • 208. how do you monetize something never designed to make money?
  • 209. if cash flow wasn't part of your original objectives,
  • 210. it's unlikely it will exist in the final product.
  • 211. to understand the future, we must look to the past,
  • 212. the pieces that I've been mentioning
  • 213. are ones you should all recognize,
  • 214. in fact, I mentioned most of them last year.
  • 215. what's interesting is to understand how they fit in context.
  • 216. Web 1.0 pushed our technology hard
  • 217. and we saw giant improvements in big databases and cheap connectivity.
  • 218. the databases gave us a place to put all our stuff,
  • 219. and the connectivity let us get it back out again.
  • 220. the ability for users to upload created a flood
  • 221. from niche markets,
  • 222. amassing us something to "put" in our new services,
  • 223. and creating a sense of purpose.
  • 224. surely all these people
  • 225. with all this stuff
  • 226. must need services!
  • 227. throw in the next generation of
  • 228. synchronous and asynchronous communication
  • 229. and you've got some "life" around stuff,
  • 230. there are people here and it's interesting!
  • 231. these five pieces laid the groundwork for the next five:
  • 232. major websites built names around the voting and ranking of content,
  • 233. delivering the "best" stuff to the most people.
  • 234. on the fast, cheap storage
  • 235. we had plenty of space to squirrel away
  • 236. rich resources like photos and video.
  • 237. and once we had the interesting stuff to watch and view,
  • 238. the technological cleverness of AJAX
  • 239. let us achieve this without hassle
  • 240. and also stream this across the web,
  • 241. via embedded widgets.
  • 242. other major building blocks
  • 243. are the creation of reputation over time,
  • 244. mass-user editable content,
  • 245. social networking functionality,
  • 246. pushing info out through feeds,
  • 247. or aggregating it in,
  • 248. and embracing the mobile world.
  • 249. so imagine this petri dish of a world
  • 250. and what happens when you let it grow…
  • 251. flickr is built of these parts
  • 252. so is YouTube,
  • 253. Wikipedia,
  • 254. Digg,
  • 255. and Facebook.
  • 256. they all share a common DNA
  • 257. and their success would have been impossible without it.
  • 258. this world was flush with investment and enthusiam,
  • 259. everyone pumping the environment with hopes and dreams
  • 260. it's not suprising to assume,
  • 261. "surely you could do something with these pieces?"
  • 262. and of course you can build fantastic machines
  • 263. and they can solve real-world problems,
  • 264. but this isn't quite the real world, is it?
  • 265. these fantastic machines,
  • 266. these weird creatures,
  • 267. evolved in a world
  • 268. where they didn't have to make money
    • ?
  • 269. where the bottom line, was more of a
  • 270. "hazy area".
  • 271. so where do you come in?
  • 272. what hope are we left with to make a buck?
  • 273. The Opportunity (before you)
  • 274. in the wake of 2.0 fervor,
  • 275. opportunities have multiplied.
  • 276. while some might regard Web 2.0 as an interesting,
  • 277. if ultimately over-hyped era,
  • 278. the clever among us don’t see the opportunity lost,
  • 279. but found.
  • 280. if you attempt to extrapolate
  • 281. the current group of Web 2.0 products,
  • 282. you get a very skewed conception of making money.
  • 283. lack of monetization pathways
  • 284. doesn't signal there's no future,
  • 285. but it does signal that the present is not a good indicator
  • 286. of what's to come.
  • 287. just like web 1.0,
  • 288. the 2.0 era included massive investment,
  • 289. and some of the work of our generation's best minds.
  • 290. the relative rarity of new millionaires
  • 291. doesn't imply the work done was for naught.
  • 292. because as the hopeful were toiling away
  • 293. crafting elegant and useful solutions
  • 294. to problems in their own special spheres,
  • 295. they were also sharing their solutions
  • 296. though open source and open platforms.
  • 297. and what we're left with is an incredible wealth,
  • 298. of potential solutions.
  • 299. so let's examine a few of the pieces
  • 300. to give you an idea of what I'm talking about:
  • 301. RSS feeds
  • 302. what we think they do: keep us updated on the latest news
  • 303. what they actually do: represent a uniform, user-controlled method of staying informed by providing a conduit to share information asynchronously across multiple platforms
  • 304. (this is a big deal!)
  • 305. opportunity fields: marketing, CRM, inventory management, metrics reporting
  • 306. voting
  • 307. what we think it does: allow users to rank the "most popular" of items
  • 308. what it actually does: with the right algorithm, separate the good from the bad
  • 309. opportunity fields: spam filtering, fraud detection, market research, collaborative creation, data normalization, taxonomy bootstrapping
  • 310. AJAX
  • 311. what we think it does: cool stuff on the web
  • 312. what it actually does: reduces operator fatigue, reduces wasted bandwidth, is a bridging tool between the document-based web and the next
  • 313. opportunity fields: personalized experience, live data integration, visualization and creation, navigation and click-through activity tracking, web-application creation
  • 314. social networking
  • 315. what we think it does: spam your inbox with vampire invites
  • 316. what it actually does: create "protected spaces" with in-built relationship roles and de-facto whitelists where members express themselves in often machine-parseable ways
  • 317. opportunity areas: CRM, marketing, opinion research
  • 318. mobile
  • 319. what we think it does: shows me tiny, painful little websites
  • 320. what it actually does: provides an always-on real-time bi-directional portal to the rest of the world, usually within 36 inches of the user, capable of monitoring physical location, capturing voice, video and photo
  • 321. opportunity areas: (can you even begin to imagine?)
  • 322. your opportunity
  • 323. is to find the problems
  • 324. these solutions solve.
  • 325. everyone in this room should know
  • 326. who wants these solutions.
  • 327. the people who want the answers,
  • 328. want the processes,
  • 329. are the people who can afford to pay
  • 330. because it's not an expenditure to them,
  • 331. its an investment.
  • 332. a rich new set of problems is waiting to be solved,
  • 333. and two major types of opportunity abound.
  • 334. if you want this all as a simple graph
  • 335. get out your pencils:
  • 336. we start with a line:
  • 337. now add web 2.0, draw your favorite fantastic machine
  • 338. and there are two stops in the middle:
  • 339. let’s label them for now:
  • 340. let’s label them for now:
    • ? !
  • 341. oh, and we need a goal. ? !
  • 342. add in your favorite of your choice: ? !
  • 343. ? !
  • 344. on one side, we have the fantastic machines ? !
  • 345. on the other side, we have the businesses with problems. ? !
  • 346. notice how far apart Web 2.0 and the money are ? !
  • 347. because we forgot about that detail in our excitement. ? !
  • 348. businesses will reward you, ? !
  • 349. if you can flow through points one and two. ? !
  • 350. so what’s Point One?
  • 351. disassemble the fantastic creations of crazy inventors
  • 352. test the parts independently
  • 353. and characterize their output,
  • 354. then implement them again,
  • 355. and make them your own.
  • 356. technological sophistication has increased at a such a rate,
  • 357. few (if any) know the latest and greatest
  • 358. in scope or capability.
  • 359. bridging the gap between the unknown and known
  • 360. is a valuable ability worth paying for.
  • 361. after we know what the pieces are capable of
  • 362. we can speak of their abilities with familiarity and confidence
  • 363. “ I know that if we did X on our site, it would be so much better,”
  • 364. “ do you know how to do X? Can you do it for us?”
  • 365. “ Absolutely ,”
  • 366. you reply with a swagger.
  • 367. but Point One and a swagger only gets us half way there.
  • 368. Point Two is where the real brilliance shows up.
  • 369. after you know what these parts can do
  • 370. its your opportunity to find the problems they fix.
  • 371. “ I know that if we did X for your company, it would be great,”
  • 372. “ and it would make you Y dollars,”
  • 373. “ all it takes is for you to sign here…”
  • 374. anticipating the needs of your clients
  • 375. and delivering on them
  • 376. because you understand their business
  • 377. can create profound loyalty
  • 378. (and revenue)
  • 379. there’s no need to seek new Web 2.0 dragons to slay
  • 380. when there are plenty of yaks to be shaved right nearby.
  • 381. and remember,
  • 382. because a lot of these technologies
  • 383. came from the creative minds of people with no money
  • 384. they often solve problems in uniquely cost effective ways.
  • 385. not only do the latest gadgets add the shiny-shiny to your site,
  • 386. there’s also the opportunity for massive return on investment.
  • 387. so to the web(!) my ladies and gentlemen,
  • 388. start accepting those vampire invites,
  • 389. (but only to dissect them)
  • 390. voting on that news,
  • 391. (to see if you can game the algorithm)
  • 392. and sign up for a Twitter account,
  • 393. so you can “Tweet” and not feel funny about it.
  • 394. the world awaits,
  • 395. and some of them have the cash to distribute,
  • 396. if you can make them more.
  • 397. Thank you for attending, (especially after lunch)
  • 398. my best of luck in attacking points One and Two,
  • 399. and I hope you create some fantastic money-making machines in the process.
  • 400. The End.
  • 401. Rolf Skyberg Disruptive Innovation, Team Lead [email_address] http://rolfsky.com twitter: @rolfsky
  • 402. Thank you to: Lawrence Lessig, for the presentation style Dick Hardt, for the inspiration Inkscape, for a wonderful vector graphics tool my lovely wife and you, (yes you), for coming
  • 403. Slide #
  • 404. Rolf Skyberg [email_address] http://rolfskyberg.wordpress.com Share, reuse, and remix this talk These slides are available under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License.

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