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Jta conference2012
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Jta conference2012

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gsat csec and intervening assessments---policy without numbers? …

gsat csec and intervening assessments---policy without numbers?

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  • 1. A visual analysis of relationships between GSAT Grade 7 & 9 Diagnostic and CSEC performance insecondary schools in Jamaica 2008-2011 JTA Education Conference 2012 Robert Philips, Education Specialist e-Learning Jamaica Company April 2012 www.e-ljam.net
  • 2. Background• The e-Learning Jamaica Project is a collaboration between the Ministry of Science Technology Energy and Mining and the Ministry of Education to systematically strengthen inputs to instruction in high schools.• Information and communications technologies and instructor capabilities are being enhanced, with a view to increasing success of students at the CSEC level
  • 3. Glossary• GSAT-- the national terminal • GNDT—Grade 9 diagnostic examination for the primary test—an examination curriculum serving as the designed by CXC to provide placement tool for secondary planning and intervention school information to schools and• PSLE—the equivalent exam in individual students, adopted Singapore by the MOE for national• Communication task—the two implementation part writing component of the GSAT examination • All-Age Schools—schools• CXC—Caribbean with some secondary grades Examinations Council— in addition to full primary regional authority for school • Primary and Junior High— examinations another type of school with• CSEC—CXC exams typically secondary grades in addition done at the end of 11th grade to full primary providing a basis for college matriculation
  • 4. Project Components• Infrastructure• Materials• Assessment• Remediation• Training
  • 5. Organisation• Context• Vision• Practice• Results• Analysis• Lessons learned• Sustainability strategies
  • 6. Context • GOOGLE search on “GSAT ANXIETY” has 79,400 hits • Search on “PSLE ANXIETY” has 46,600 hits
  • 7. VisionIf you want to improve a system over time you will get surprises if you don’t have a tracking process
  • 8. Practice• Ministry of Education agreed to a National 9th grade Diagnostic implemented by e-Ljam• Caribbean Examinations Council contracted to organise and deliver – End-of-year multiple choice test with – Continuous internal assessment – Voluntary 7th grade assessment
  • 9. The roots of school performance r=0.99 !!!! Math Math Math 2009 vs Math 2008 GSATSchool Name 2008 2009Aabuthnott 120GallimoreHigh 58.88 53.13 100 Math GSAT 2009 80Albert Town 60High 46.73 44.73 40 20Annotto Bay 53.96 50.62 0Ardenne High 0 20 40 60 80 100 120School 94.39 93.63 Math GSAT 2008Ascot High 48.52 45.29
  • 10. A school perception index ? Math 2009 vs Math 2008 GSAT • Intake GSAT Math means for two consecutive years for high schools 120 100 • Explanation invited 80 • Submission that school perception 60 as indexed by selection and/or placement is the main determinantMath GSAT 2009 40 of future performance 20 • Visual anomalies are technical schools which became normal 0 clients of GSAT in 2009 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 • Source :MOE data Math GSAT 2008
  • 11. A school perception index ? Math 2009 vs Math 2008 GSAT 120 • Intake GSAT scores are 100 technically independent of 80 the internals of schools 60Math GSAT 2009 • Schools with lowest intake 40 GSAT scores have lowest 20 levels of academic success 0 • A new rationale for 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 placement may be required Math GSAT 2008
  • 12. Results of Assessment ComponentGrowth in participation2 7000 pilot grade 9 30 schools3 30000 national grade 9 150 schools4 64000 grade 9 and grade 7 173 schools *5 82000 projected 180 schools*10 Benchmark All-Age and Primary Jnr High included in 2011
  • 13. Scanning Technology • Examview • Use scanners supplied by project • Local, decentralised solution • Automatic Document feed • Powerful reporting suite • Replaced CXC registration strategy and MOE centralized scanning • 7 day turnaround
  • 14. Performance Trends 2010• 10% of schools don’t participate• 11% of students in participating schools miss exams• 81% of participants score 45% or greater on multiple choice test for English• 38% of participants score 45% or greater on Maths test
  • 15. 2010---Math—level 1 • Fairly good performance is seen on statistics items, with an average of 70%. • Many students missed items on Number & Computation such as: order of operations (70% of students), place value (5-digits (60%), decimal – hundredths (70%)) (easily Grades 6-7 objectives). • Students answered correctly, on average, only one-third of the items on Measurement & Geometry and Algebra. • Source Faulkner,D. CXC Exam Consultant •
  • 16. 2010—math level 1 • Females students performed better than male students in all sub-topics except in Measurement and Geometry. • The average difference is 2%. • The largest differences are in Statistics (7.6%) and Consumer Arithmetic (4.1%) • The difference in favour of males in Measurement and Geometry is 0.5%. • 36.4% of female students and 31.6 % of male students scored 45% or more. • Source Faulkner,D. CXC Exam Consultant
  • 17. Math 2010—level 2 • All sub-topics, except Algebra have mean percent scores above 40%. • Statistics, Consumer Arithmetic and Relations & Graphs have the highest mean percent scores. • Algebra has the lowest scores on this paper. • Students need more work in the following areas: Number and Computation, Measurement and Geometry and Algebra. • Source Faulkner,D. CXC Exam Consultant
  • 18. Select schools 2010• School A has been closed
  • 19. Select schools 2010• School B labelled as failing
  • 20. Select schools 2010School X a classic outlier GSAT scores >95 or +3 standard deviations
  • 21. Select schools 2010 • Ecological validity of the assessment system tested using six Catholic high schools • English > Math
  • 22. Select schools 2010 • Ecological validity of the assessment system tested using six Catholic high schools • “posh” vs “poor” * x,c vs a,b * after Miller
  • 23. Select schools 2010 • Ecological validity of the assessment system tested using six Catholic high schools • girls vs boys y,c vs z
  • 24. Summary results Grade 9 2011• Available cohort 41946• Patricipation 37362• Scoring less than 45% English 8816• National Means – Math 37.06 – English 54.99 – Integrated Science 44.65 – Social Studies 51.53
  • 25. Summary results Grade 7--2011• Available cohort est. 45000• Patricipation 27000• Scoring less than 45% English 6800• Scoring less than 45% Math 11900• National Means – Math 45.7 – English 55.8 – Integrated Science 50.6 – Social Studies 50.5
  • 26. Grade 9 Math vs English 2011 how schools math and language performance covary at grade 9 90 80• 140+ of 173 70 schools test mean for school 60 50• math_9_2011 Gap in raw scores 40 eng_9_2011 lowest for outliers 30 20 10 0 1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106 113 120 127 134 school no.
  • 27. GSAT scores 2008 vs Grade 9 2011 • Same cohort after 3 years • GSAT means of 80 give ca 100% probability of ninth grade success for English • Math performance would be interesting to track
  • 28. English GSAT vs Math GSAT 2010• Between school Chart Title y = 0.9262x + 5.2538 means of English 2 R = 0.9935 100 and Math 90 80 abnormally linear 70 english gsat 2010 60 egs2010 50• Explanation invited 40 30 Linear (egs2010)• Is reading the 20 10 common factor? 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 math gsat 2010• Is there a variable called test taking?
  • 29. GSAT means 2010 vs Gseven 2011 y = 0.7231x + 10.42 • Low contribution of gsat 2010 vs gseven 2011 R2 = 0.9327 instruction to the 90.0 80.0 variance after a year in 70.0 high school 60.0gseven 2011 50.0 40.0 • R (g6 vs g7) > .95 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 • Sources: MOE 2010 GSAT results and e- gsat 2010 Ljam grade 7 exams 2011
  • 30. GSAT communication task• Currently the only production test in GSAT• Divides schools into two quadrants• Communication task of 7 and below associated with lower overall performance• Planned for replacement by a book report• Sources: MOE 2010 GSAT results and e-Ljam grade 7 exams 2011
  • 31. GSAT communication task• Currently the only production test in GSAT• Divides schools into two quadrants• Communication task of 7 and below associated with lower overall performance• Planned for replacement by a book report• Sources: MOE 2010 GSAT results and e-Ljam grade 7 exams 2011
  • 32. GSAT communication task one year later• Urgent review of the future of the communication task is recommended• No evidence that book reports are going to represent students work given the behavior with CSEC SBAs• Sources: MOE 2010 GSAT results and e-Ljam grade 7 exams 2011
  • 33. Indices of CSEC performance• Bill Johnson—Ralph Thompson –Gleaner 2020 index• Adopted by e-Ljam ,with some reservations as a meaningful index• Simply – school score is 100 if every student in cohort scores a Grade 1• Grade 1 is valued at 4• Grade 2 is valued at 2• Grade 3 is valued at 1
  • 34. Tracking variables for six select schools tracking variables for selected schools 80 70 60 mgs2008 egs2008 • GSAT 50 math_9_2011 • GNINEpercent or index for gsat or gnine or csec 40 eng_9_2011 30 20 10 e10 m10 • CSEC english 0 o1 o2 b1 h1 s1 t1 avg_gsat av_g9 • CSEC math school
  • 35. Visual analysis—grade 7--2011 schools by comm task score 120 mgs2010 100 egs2010gsat gseven cxc index scigs2010 80 socgs2010 math_7_2011 eng_7_2011 60 sci_7_2011 soc_7_2011 40 eng-jt_2007 math-jt_2007 20 e09 m09 0 e10 1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 m10 school
  • 36. Visual analysis Grade 7--2011• CSEC indices m 10—math 2010 e 10---- english 2010• GSAT mgs 2010 egs 2010• Grade 7 –math_7_2011 eng_7_2011
  • 37. Visual analysis • Partially cross-sectional 2010 GSAT vs CSEC • partially longitudinal 2010—2011 GSAT vs G7 • Intake GSAT scores trend similarly to CSEC indices • Floor CSEC results for more than half the schools • GSAT placement reinforces a culture of failure in the majority
  • 38. Conclusions• GSAT intake means are a measure of the perception of schools• GSAT means forecast Grade 7 Grade 9 and CSEC performance with the robustness of physical science measures• Maths and English gap is evident from grade 7• Geometry and algebra weaknesses are evident Contrary to the view that GSAT is too hard, there are not enough moderate to high performance students to share among the 170+ schools• Students scoring less than 80 could be placed on geography and some of those above could receive advanced placement and seek to complete high school in four years• The GSAT communication task should be reviewed for retention as independent writing is encouraged• The communication task discriminates and is associated with varying levels of terminal secondary performance• Data is available to inform policy and strategy choices• An education system that does not acknowledge the foundations of literacy will have low levels of success
  • 39. Lessons learned• Jamaican teachers are eager to incorporate technology into their professional practice, including assessment• The consistent placement of weaker students in the same schools reinforces the culture of failure• Assessment at ninth grade indicates that even at current levels of primary school output quality, higher levels of success in CSEC Math and English are achievable
  • 40. Sustainability• The Ministry of Education has contracted a supplier for the strategic overhaul of the lower secondary curriculum and related assessment processes• E-Learning Jamaica has been requested to liaise with the supplier
  • 41. Question TimeRobert Philips, Education Specialist www.e-ljam.net

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