• Share
  • Email
  • Embed
  • Like
  • Save
  • Private Content
Cruise 2009 Presentation
 

Cruise 2009 Presentation

on

  • 1,050 views

 

Statistics

Views

Total Views
1,050
Views on SlideShare
1,047
Embed Views
3

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
2
Comments
0

2 Embeds 3

http://www.slideshare.net 2
http://192.168.10.100 1

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Microsoft PowerPoint

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    Cruise 2009 Presentation Cruise 2009 Presentation Presentation Transcript

    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Grain Price Outlook and Market Strategies Cruise The Crop Markets by John Roach January 18 - 24, 2009 Day 1
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Why were grain prices so high?
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Population Growth Rates Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Global Meat beef + pork + chickens & turkeys Production, per capita consumption, and population Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017.
      • Dollar Index
      © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Dollar Value Down 40% Since 2002 Peak
      • DJ / AIG Commodity Index
      © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Index Up 180% Since 2002 Low
      • DJ / AIG Commodity Index
      © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Index Up 180% Since 2002 Low
      • DJ / AIG Commodity Index Composition
      © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
      • Energy: 37.6%
      • Livestock: 6.97%
      • Grains: 16.57%
      • Base Metals: 19.54%
      • Precious Metals: 8.99%
      • Softs: 7.59%
      • Soybean Oil: 2.74%
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. What happened to cause prices to drop?
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. USDA 2008 World Corn Yields 6/10/08 149.0 Bu/Acre U.S. 87.6 Bu/Acre Chinese 78.1 Bu/Acre World 60.1 Bu/Acre Non – U.S.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. There will not be enough money to raise crops this big next year
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. There will not be enough money to raise crops this big next year
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
      • World coarse grain ending stocks tight
      • U.S. ending stocks are tight
      • Exports off to slow start
      • Ethanol demand slowing
      • We still need a big corn crop every year
      • Price peak due in Mar – June in 2009
      Corn Situation and Price Outlook
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
      • World soybean ending stocks not as tight as corn or wheat, but demand is solid.
      • US stocks very tight
      • Look for shrinking 2009 crop in S. America
      • Prices currently tied to China demand and S. American weather
      Bean Situation and Price Outlook
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
      • World wheat ending stocks burdensome in 2009
      • US stocks adequate
      • Look for shrinking 2009 world crop
      • Prices currently and likely to be dominated by former Soviet Union production
      Wheat Situation and Price Outlook
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. How Should I Market My Crops?
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sales Plan
      • Make as many of your sales as possible during the months of March, April, May and June. Avoid October and November
      • Sell in increments to take advantage of several market peaks using Roach Ag Sell Signals
      • Buy puts on unsold new crop production with either profit goal or insurance goal
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
      • Focus the majority of sales in the 1 st half of the year
      • March through June is usually best
      Rule # 1
      • December 2007 Corn
      © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Both Lines Over 75 = Roach Ag Sell Signal
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell & Buy Signals Your Digital Thermometer For Prices
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell Signals When Both Lines Are Above 75 = Sell Signal
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag 2007 Corn Sell Signals 56 Days of Sell Signals ($3.91) and 272 Days Without ($3.71)
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
      • Sell only when markets are giving us a Roach Ag Sell Signal
      Rule # 2
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
      • Figure out the percentage of bushels you are comfortable selling each and every spring and tie that % to the your crop insurance policy coverage level
      Rule # 3
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
      • Make sure you have enough on-farm or other owned storage to hold the balance of a crop using your best ever yields
      Rule # 4
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
      • Make sure you sell enough in the spring prior to harvest to generate necessary cash-flow from harvest through February
      Rule # 5
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
      • Split your old crop bushels and new crop contracts into between 3 and 5 increments and sell one increment of each on each Sell Signal
      Rule # 6
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing Plan Worksheet
    • © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. 7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL 33487 800-622-7628 [email_address] http://www.roachag.com