The Digital BiomeRe-engineering the Ecosystem to Survive and Thrive in the 21s CenturyRamez Naam							        @ramez
Welcome to the Anthropocene
Global problems, global risks
Ocean Acidification
CATCH SOARING
Depleted Fisheries
Fish Tons Per Unit Effort
Annual Rice Yields in China.  Source: 10.1146/annurev-arplant-042809-112206
Species Loss
Peak Oil: Projections
Pathogens and Antibiotic Resistance?(At M. Vassar’s Request)
Biology as Info Tech
Goal:  100,000 Genomes by 2020
2020: $10 Human Genome
Knowing is Half the Battle
The Other Half is Doing
If the Genome is Digital
Can We Edit It?
Tools from biology
“When you think of all the things that are made from oil and the chemical industry and the fuel industries — if in the future we could find cells to replace most if not all of these processes, the ideal way would be to do it by direct design.”  -- Craig Venter
Algae Based Biofuels
Tobacco Mosaic Virus
GM Eucalyptus Trees
5 Days
The fundamental limits
Fresh Water
13%
Increasing Photosynthetic Efficiency for Greater YieldXin-GuangZhu, Stephen P. Long, and Donald R. Ort, Annual Review of Plant BiologyTimeline of boosting photosynthetic efficiency.  Source: 10.1146/annurev-arplant-042809-112206
Winning the Race
US Energy Spending: One Trillion DollarsYou Are Here
SupplyPriceDemandBehavior
Garbage Data
Perceived Infinite Supply of:
Atmospheric CO2 Absorption
Ocean CO2 Absorption
Ocean Fish (at any given time)
Fresh Water Aquifers
Garbage Model:  Distortions
Clean Up Our Inputs
Clean Up Our Model
Price or Regulate Commons
Remove Distortions
Invest in R&D
Incentivize Conservation
Incentivize Efficiency
Incentivize Innovation
Maximize Odds of Success
Minimize Odds of Catastrophe
Ramez Naam      		            @ramez

The Digital Biome: Re-engineering Life on Earth to Survive and Thrive in the 21st Century

Editor's Notes

  • #17 Plankton are near the bottom of the food chain.Corals are responsible for 50% of ocean biodiversity.
  • #18 Reefs are responsible for about half of ocean biodiversity.
  • #19 Plenty of fish in the sea.
  • #23 Average American uses 1600 cubic meters of water per year.A cube 40’ on a side.
  • #25 Aral Sea spans Uzbekistan and Kazakstan: 1989-2003
  • #26 Aral Sea, 2009. Source: National Geographic
  • #27 Olagalla Aquifer
  • #31 Endangered species. As a computer scientist I see this as a loss of information with no backup.
  • #32 Extinction rate – log scale.
  • #37 SARS virus was sequenced in 5 days.At 1AM on April 7, 2003, an isolate of the SARS virus arrived at the Michael Smith Genome Sciences Centre. Five days later, the lab published the virus sequence for the first time.
  • #46 Dawkins: Biology in One Word: Digital
  • #48 Venter: Most Important Research Tool: The Computer
  • #50 George Church
  • #55 Just an example. Relatively few genes took us from wolves to this variety of dogs.In the wild we’ll sequence all sorts of organisms and learn what genes allow some to work in extreme heat, others in extreme cold, others in extreme radiation, and so on.
  • #60 Venter, artificial life = Gene Printing, 1.1 million bases
  • #63 Let’s start with energy.One of the proposed replacements for fossil fuels is biofuels, using photosynthesis to capture the sun’s energy and then refining it into fuel. After all, all fossil fuels are basically congealed solar energy.Unfortunately, current biofuels haven’t panned out. They’re expensive to refine, they compete with food crops.
  • #64 EnterCraig Venter. Why is he talking about fuels? Because Exxon paid his company Synthetic Genomics $600 million to work with them on genetically engineered organisms for biofuels.
  • #66 Cyanobacteria (blue green algae) for fuels. 3.5 B years old. Genetic modification to produce variants that produce ethanol, oil, or even hydrogen gas.Source:http://www.ecofriendlymag.com/sustainable-transporation-and-alternative-fuel/the-big-boys-of-industry-move-into-next-generation-algae-fuels/
  • #68 Proposed Algae Biofuel facility in Arizona. Doesn’t compete with food crops. Can use very brackish water not suitable for irrigation. Sucks CO2 out of the atmosphere.
  • #69 DARPA: Beginning production of biofuel from algae in 2013. Projected price of under $5 / gallon. Part of the goal is to be able to grow fuel in forward areas.
  • #70 Now, all of those biofuel pathways go through photosynthesis, which itself has a theoretical peak efficiency of 13%. A more efficient way would be to actually produce electricity.
  • #72 Can be harvested by chopping up the plants, and sprayed onto a conductive surface to create a very cheap photovoltaic surface.
  • #73 ArborGen GM Eucalyptus – grow twice as fast, less of a protein called lingin.
  • #74 What percent change is necessary to offset all industrial CO2 output
  • #75 GM Salmon from a company called Aquabounty, have genes inserted from a “pout fish”, grow about 50% faster than normal Salmon, fewer calories consumed vs. calories delivered. Could be our first genetically modified food animal.
  • #77 Not an alien probe, not a nanomachine – at least not how you may think of it. This is a Coccolithophore. They’re a family of species that account for about 30% of the calcification – the creation of new shells – that happens in the ocean. And unlike other calcifiers, they actually calcify *more* in high CO2 oceans. Can we borrow their genes?
  • #78 Not an alien probe, not a nanomachine – at least not how you may think of it. This is a Coccolithophore. They’re a family of species that account for about 30% of the calcification – the creation of new shells – that happens in the ocean. And unlike other calcifiers, they actually calcify *more* in high CO2 oceans. Can we borrow their genes?
  • #79 Most coral damage actually from fishing, sport, and other activities. We’ve been practicing ways to regenerate corals.
  • #80 Maldives. Corals were dying. But what we’ve discovered is that there are new growth, growing at 5x the rate of typical coral growth. The same thing happens in waters that are too hot. But not all corals do this. Only a subset. Some of the difference is probably environmental, but some genetic.
  • #81 So can we figure out the genes that make some corals regenerate, and transplant those into others?
  • #82 Spanish Ibex. Extinct. For 7 minutes were no longer extinct.
  • #88 Fresh water is an energy problem. We use a tiny tiny fraction of all water on the planet. Saltwater + energy, can be fresh water.Desalination = 0.77 kwh per cubic meter.Americans use 1600 cubic meters per capita per year.For 9 B people, would be 11 Trillion Kw Hours3 KilaMega9 Giga12 Tera15 Peta= 1.1 * 10^16 watt hoursSun delivers 350,000,000 * 10^12 = 3.5 * 10^20Current Energy Usage = 150,000 Twhours / year = 1.5 x 10^17
  • #91 What about food?
  • #92 So what about food? Can we further increase food production? C3 Crops: Wheat, rice, potatoes, barley.C4 Crops:  maize, sugar cane, millet, and sorghumCurrent photosynthetic efficiency of C3 and C4 plants. Source: 10.1146/annurev-arplant-042809-112206
  • #94 Theoretical max efficiency is 13%. Per James Bolton and David Hall. Must stress that we don’t know how to biologically design a system that reaches this efficiency. But that is what a perfect biotech could achieve with photosynthesis.Current photosynthetic efficiency of C3 and C4 plants. Source: 10.1146/annurev-arplant-042809-112206THE MAXIMUM EFFICIENCY OF PHOTOSYNTHESIS, JAMES R. BOLTON’? and DAVID O. HALL, Photochemistry und Photobiology Vol. 53, No. 4. pp. 545-548, 1991
  • #104 In addition to whatever tax funded dollars we have, we should also be looking to the free market to fund some of this R&D.
  • #108 Assumed that behind Supply and Demand are rational actors who make decisions. Someone with a shrinking supply starts charging more.