Preliminary Analysis:
Impact of Weather on March 2009 Retail Sales

March 2009 Summary Analysis
• In March 2009 weather represented a marginal net positive for retail
sales
• Weather conditions were warmer than during the same period in 2008
across a large portion of the US
• Warmer temperatures in March are a significant positive driver of
demand. In 2009, this resulted in greater physical demand for
seasonal merchandise than during March 2008
• While the marginally better weather was not enough to offset the
Easter shift and continuing headwinds from the economic downturn,
final sales results may be slightly less bad than anticipated due to the
more favorable physical sales environment
March 2009 Temperature Compared to Normal
Map Source: NOAA
• On a relative basis, retailers that are best positioned to benefit from
this include: Gap Inc, Dillards, Wal*Mart/Sams Club, Kohls, Costco,
and BJs.
© Copyright 2009 All Rights Reserved, G2 Weather Intelligence, LLC

March 2009 Temperatures
March 2009 Temperature Compared to Normal March 2008 Temperature Compared to Normal
Map Source: NOAA Map Source: NOAA
© Copyright 2009 All Rights Reserved, G2 Weather Intelligence, LLC

Weather Impact on March Sales
• Example of the influence of
temperature on retail sales in
March
• Old Navy same store sales
change compared to the change
in a nationally weighted Cooling
Degree Index (weather source:
NOAA)
• Warmer temperatures correlates
to demand for spring apparel
– ~40% correlation
© Copyright 2009 All Rights Reserved, G2 Weather Intelligence, LLC

March Weather Sensitivity by Retailer
• Estimated percentage of
March same store sales
changes explained by
changes in March
temperature
• Provides a relative ranking
of the weather exposure by
retailer during the month of
March.
• Based on the period 2001 –
2008
© Copyright 2009 All Rights Reserved, G2 Weather Intelligence, LLC

Weather Impact on April Sales
• Example of the influence of
temperature on retail sales in
April
• National temperature change
against the average comp store
sales of a basket of 53 retailers
(source: Global Hunter Securities
and NOAA)
© Copyright 2009 All Rights Reserved, G2 Weather Intelligence, LLC

April Weather Outlook
• Long-range projections for April
indicate mostly seasonal to
warmer than seasonal conditions
in April
• Some challenges in early April in
the northeast mainly due to a
difficult comp against
unseasonably warm weather last
year
• Easter shift and the onset of the
economic stimulus both positive
factors in addition to the generally
favorable environmental
conditions
• Maps courtesy of AccuWeather
Inc.
© Copyright 2009 All Rights Reserved, G2 Weather Intelligence, LLC

Contact Information
Paul Walsh, Managing Principal
– Email: Paul.Walsh@g2weather.com
– Direct: +1.917.463.4238
– Mobile: +1.610.246.0623
© Copyright 2009 All Rights Reserved, G2 Weather Intelligence, LLC