Climate Change and Future Food Insecurity
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The document discusses the impacts of climate change on global food security. It notes that rising temperatures are expected to reduce agricultural productivity, especially in tropical and subtropical regions. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency of extreme heat waves that could devastate crop yields. This could lead to greater food insecurity and price volatility worldwide. While some debate the causes and impacts of climate change, the risks of inaction may be catastrophic for global stability.
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Climate Change and Future Food Insecurity
- 2. Overview IntroducBon • Weather Risk Management Overview • Climate Change Primer • The Next 100 Years: Climate “DisrupBon” and Food • Security • The Next Few Years: The Debate Heats Up • QuesBons
- 3. G2 Weather Intelligence, LLC Helping businesses make more money by proacBvely planning for the influence of weather on consumers and business © 2008 G2 Weather Intelligence, LLC. All Rights Reserved
- 4. “Always check the weather report before you pray for rain.” ‐ Mark Twain
- 5. Managing Weather‐Related Uncertainty Three components: 1. Understanding value at risk ($) 2. OperaBonal management (managing the knowable) Real‐Bme TacBcal Seasonal Very long‐lead (decades) Scenario Planning 3. Financial management (hedging the unknowable) Weather derivaBve hedging soluBons
- 6. Trust, but Verify: On Seasonal ForecasBng, Uncertainty, and Weather Risk Management • Seasonal forecasts useful for understanding climate trends and anomalies • Forecasts based on large scale interacBons between the ocean and atmosphere • Opera&onal/policy decisions shaped by probabili&es and odds vice absolutes • Financial hedging used to offset the uncertainty inherent in seasonal forecast
- 7. “Climate change poses clear, catastrophic threats. We may not agree on the extent, but we certainly can't afford the risk of inac5on.” Rupert Murdoch, CEO, News Corp “…the threat of catastrophic global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people,” U.S. Sen. James M. Inhofe (R‐Okla) Photo courtesy of Smiling Pug
- 8. Climate Change Primer from the President’s Science and Technology Advisor
- 11. Increased Frequency of Heat Waves 2003 2040 Source: John Holdren The Science of Climate DisrupBon
- 12. Warnings of Future Food Insecurity With Unprecedented Seasonal Heat “The food crisis of 2006 ‐ 2008 demonstrates the fragile nature of feeding the world’s human populaBon. “ ‐ David BafsB, University of Washington and Rosamond Naylor, Stanford
- 13. Higher Growing Season Temperatures Have DramaBc Impacts on Agriculture ProducBvity • Avoiding a perpetual food crisis under condiBons of global warming a serious future challenge • Direct yield losses in the tropics and sub‐ tropics esBmated at 2.5 to 16% for every 1°C increase in seasonal temperature Source: David BafsB, University of Washington and Rosamond Naylor, Stanford
- 14. >90% Probability Growing Season Temperatures in the tropics and subtropics by the end of the 21st century will exceed the most extreme seasonal temperatures recorded from 1900 to 2006 ‐ David BafsB, University of Washington and Rosamond Naylor, Stanford
- 15. Regional Examples: France • Summer 2003 heat wave in western Europe • >30K killed • 20% to 30% decreases in agriculture producBon • Projec5ons call for that level of heat to be the norm by the end of the century ‐ David BafsB, University of Washington and Rosamond Naylor, Stanford
- 16. Regional DisrupBons Have Global ImplicaBons • Countries respond to producBon and price volaBlity by restricBng trade or purchasing large quanBBes on internaBonal markets • Future heat stress on crops and livestock will occur in an environment of rising demand for food and animal feed making markets more vulnerable to price swings • Most damaging to poor households that spend the majority of their incomes on staple foods
- 17. World Bank Weather Risk Management Efforts in Malawi
- 18. World Bank Weather Risk Management Efforts in Malawi
- 19. World Bank Weather Risk Management Efforts in Malawi
- 20. World Bank Weather Risk Management Efforts in Malawi
- 21. HeaBng up the Climate Change Debate • Possible we could be entering into a period of cooling across the populated regions in the Northern Hemisphere • The Pacific Decadal Oscilla5on (PDO) is a pabern of Pacific climate variability that shiks phases on at least inter‐decadal Bme scales, usually about 20 to 30 years
- 22. A New Regime of Colder Weather? ? ? “In general, the climate regime no longer resembles the recent warm spell of the last 25 years. The persistence of the very cold Pacific Ocean of the the last couple of years has resulted in … paKerns more similar to the 1950s‐1970s. If this “old‐school” paKern persists much longer, the global oceans will conQnue to cool off, and we will likely head into a cooler mulQ‐decadal climate regime.” ‐‐ Dr Todd Crawford, WSI Seasonal Forecaster
- 23. Spring 2009 Weather Driver: La Nina Redux
- 25. Summary Points • Science: >90% likely (“virtually certain”) climate change will result in significant global food disrupBons this century • Tropics and sub‐tropics the most at risk for significant disrupBon; impacBng the most vulnerable populaBons • SoluBons likely to come in the form of adapBve technologies and increasing use of financial hedging instruments • PoliBcal debate re: climate change may be heaBng up over the next few years if the PDO phase shik results in a long‐term return to cooler temperatures • ComplicaBng the transformaBonal and adapBve changes needed to manage the coming challenges
- 26. QuesBons? Paul Walsh, G2 Weather Intelligence LLC – Paul.Walsh@G2Weather.com – Direct: +1.917.463.4238 – Mobile: +1.610.246.0623 – Blog/Website: www.G2Weather.com “Changing the way business thinks about the weather”