Food
and
Water:

Basic
Challenges
to
Interna5onal
Stability



Climate
Change
and
Future
Food
Insecurity







Paul
E.
Wa...
Overview


   IntroducBon

• 
   Weather
Risk
Management
Overview

• 
   Climate
Change
Primer

• 
   The
Next
100
Years:
...
G2
Weather
Intelligence,
LLC





        Helping
businesses
make
more

        money
by
proacBvely
planning
for

        ...
“Always check
 the weather
report before
 you pray for
    rain.”

‐

Mark
Twain

Managing
Weather‐Related
Uncertainty


Three
components:


  1.  Understanding
value
at
risk
($)


  2.  OperaBonal
manage...
Trust,
but
Verify:

On
Seasonal
ForecasBng,

  Uncertainty,
and
Weather
Risk
Management

•  Seasonal
forecasts
useful
for
...
“Climate
change
poses
clear,
catastrophic
threats.
We
may

                                 not
agree
on
the
extent,
but
w...
Climate
Change
Primer
from
the
President’s

      Science
and
Technology
Advisor

The
Hockey
SBck





Source:

John
Holdren
The
Science
of
Climate
DisrupBon

The
Smoking
Gun





Source:

John
Holdren
The
Science
of
Climate
DisrupBon

Increased
Frequency
of

Heat
Waves







          2003
                        2040





Source:

John
Holdren
The
Scien...
Warnings
of
Future
Food
Insecurity
With

         Unprecedented
Seasonal
Heat






“The
food
crisis
of
2006
‐
2008
demons...
Higher
Growing
Season
Temperatures
Have

            DramaBc
Impacts
on
Agriculture
ProducBvity



       •  Avoiding
a
pe...
>90%
Probability
Growing
Season
Temperatures
in

       the
tropics
and
subtropics
by
the
end
of
the
21st

       century
...
Regional
Examples:

France


       •  Summer
2003
heat

          wave
in
western
Europe

       •  >30K
killed

       •...
Regional
DisrupBons
Have
Global
ImplicaBons




•  Countries
respond
to
producBon
and
price
volaBlity

   by
restricBng
tr...
World
Bank
Weather
Risk
Management
Efforts


                in
Malawi

World
Bank
Weather
Risk
Management
Efforts


                in
Malawi

World
Bank
Weather
Risk
Management
Efforts


                in
Malawi

World
Bank
Weather
Risk
Management
Efforts


                in
Malawi

HeaBng
up
the
Climate
Change
Debate


•  Possible
we
could
be

   entering
into
a
period
of

   cooling
across
the

   pop...
A
New
Regime
of
Colder
Weather?




                                                                                 ?
   ...
Spring
2009
Weather
Driver:



       La
Nina
Redux


Typical
January
–
March
Weather
During

Moderate
to
Strong
El
Nino
and
La
Nina

Summary
Points




•  Science:

>90%
likely
(“virtually
certain”)
climate
change
will
result
in
significant

   global
food...
QuesBons?



                 Paul
Walsh,
G2
Weather
Intelligence
LLC


                   –  Paul.Walsh@G2Weather.com

  ...
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Climate Change and Future Food Insecurity

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Slides from my presentation at the Food and Water Security Conference held at the Philadelphia Federal Reserve. Event was sponsored by the Global Interdependence Center and the Philadelphia CFA society.

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Climate Change and Future Food Insecurity

  1. 1. Food
and
Water:

Basic
Challenges
to
Interna5onal
Stability


 Climate
Change
and
Future
Food
Insecurity


 Paul
E.
Walsh
 Founder
and
Managing
Principal


 G2
Weather
Intelligence,
LLC
 Paul.Walsh@G2Weather.com

  2. 2. Overview
 IntroducBon
 •  Weather
Risk
Management
Overview
 •  Climate
Change
Primer
 •  The
Next
100
Years:

Climate
“DisrupBon”
and
Food
 •  Security
 •  The
Next
Few
Years:

The
Debate
Heats
Up
 •  QuesBons

  3. 3. G2
Weather
Intelligence,
LLC
 Helping
businesses
make
more
 money
by
proacBvely
planning
for
 the
influence
of
weather
on
 consumers
and
business
 ©
2008
G2
Weather
Intelligence,
LLC.

All

Rights
Reserved

  4. 4. “Always check the weather report before you pray for rain.” ‐

Mark
Twain

  5. 5. Managing
Weather‐Related
Uncertainty
 Three
components:
 1.  Understanding
value
at
risk
($)
 2.  OperaBonal
management
(managing
the
knowable)
 Real‐Bme
   TacBcal
   Seasonal
   Very
long‐lead
(decades)
Scenario
Planning
   3.  Financial
management
(hedging
the
unknowable)
   Weather
derivaBve
hedging
soluBons

  6. 6. Trust,
but
Verify:

On
Seasonal
ForecasBng,
 Uncertainty,
and
Weather
Risk
Management
 •  Seasonal
forecasts
useful
for
 understanding
climate
trends
 and
anomalies
 •  Forecasts
based
on
large
scale
 interacBons
between
the
 ocean
and
atmosphere
 •  Opera&onal/policy
decisions
 shaped
by
probabili&es
and
 odds
vice
absolutes
 •  Financial
hedging
used
to
 offset
the
uncertainty
inherent
 in
seasonal
forecast

  7. 7. “Climate
change
poses
clear,
catastrophic
threats.
We
may
 not
agree
on
the
extent,
but
we
certainly
can't
afford
the
 risk
of
inac5on.”

Rupert
Murdoch,
CEO,
News
Corp

 “…the
threat
of
catastrophic
global
warming
is
the
greatest
 hoax
ever
perpetrated
on
the
American
people,”



U.S.
Sen.
 James
M.
Inhofe
(R‐Okla)
 Photo
courtesy
of
Smiling
Pug

  8. 8. Climate
Change
Primer
from
the
President’s
 Science
and
Technology
Advisor

  9. 9. The
Hockey
SBck
 Source:

John
Holdren
The
Science
of
Climate
DisrupBon

  10. 10. The
Smoking
Gun
 Source:

John
Holdren
The
Science
of
Climate
DisrupBon

  11. 11. Increased
Frequency
of

Heat
Waves


 2003
 2040
 Source:

John
Holdren
The
Science
of
Climate
DisrupBon

  12. 12. Warnings
of
Future
Food
Insecurity
With
 Unprecedented
Seasonal
Heat

 “The
food
crisis
of
2006
‐
2008
demonstrates
the
fragile
nature
of
feeding
the
 world’s
human
populaBon.
“
 
‐

David
BafsB,
University
of
Washington
and
Rosamond
Naylor,
Stanford


  13. 13. Higher
Growing
Season
Temperatures
Have
 DramaBc
Impacts
on
Agriculture
ProducBvity


 •  Avoiding
a
perpetual
 food
crisis
under
 condiBons
of
global
 warming
a
serious
 future
challenge
 •  Direct
yield
losses
in
 the
tropics
and
sub‐ tropics
esBmated
at
2.5
 to
16%
for
every
1°C
 increase
in
seasonal
 temperature
 
Source:

David
BafsB,
University
of
Washington
and
Rosamond
Naylor,
Stanford


  14. 14. >90%
Probability
Growing
Season
Temperatures
in
 the
tropics
and
subtropics
by
the
end
of
the
21st
 century
will
exceed
the
most
extreme
seasonal
 temperatures
recorded
from
1900
to
2006
 
‐

David
BafsB,
University
of
Washington
and
Rosamond
Naylor,
Stanford


  15. 15. Regional
Examples:

France
 •  Summer
2003
heat
 wave
in
western
Europe
 •  >30K
killed
 •  20%
to
30%
decreases
 in
agriculture

 producBon

 •  Projec5ons
call
for
that

 level
of
heat
to
be
the
 norm
by
the
end
of
the
 century

 
‐

David
BafsB,
University
of
Washington
and
Rosamond
Naylor,
Stanford


  16. 16. Regional
DisrupBons
Have
Global
ImplicaBons


 •  Countries
respond
to
producBon
and
price
volaBlity
 by
restricBng
trade
or
purchasing
large
quanBBes
on
 internaBonal
markets
 •  Future
heat
stress
on
crops
and
livestock
will
occur
 in
an
environment
of
rising
demand
for
food
and
 animal
feed
making
markets
more
vulnerable
to
 price
swings

 •  Most
damaging
to
poor
households
that
spend
the
 majority
of
their
incomes
on
staple
foods


  17. 17. World
Bank
Weather
Risk
Management
Efforts

 in
Malawi

  18. 18. World
Bank
Weather
Risk
Management
Efforts

 in
Malawi

  19. 19. World
Bank
Weather
Risk
Management
Efforts

 in
Malawi

  20. 20. World
Bank
Weather
Risk
Management
Efforts

 in
Malawi

  21. 21. HeaBng
up
the
Climate
Change
Debate
 •  Possible
we
could
be
 entering
into
a
period
of
 cooling
across
the
 populated
regions
in
the
 Northern
Hemisphere
 •  The
Pacific
Decadal
 Oscilla5on
(PDO)
is
a
 pabern
of
Pacific
 climate
variability
that
 shiks
phases
on
at
least
 inter‐decadal
Bme
 scales,
usually
about
20
 to
30
years



  22. 22. A
New
Regime
of
Colder
Weather?
 ? ?
 “In
general,
the
climate
regime
no
longer
resembles
the
recent
warm
spell
of
the
last
 25
years.

The
persistence
of
the
very
cold
Pacific
Ocean
of
the
the
last
couple
of
years
 has
resulted
in
…
paKerns
more
similar
to
the
1950s‐1970s.


If
this
“old‐school”
 paKern
persists
much
longer,
the
global
oceans
will
conQnue
to
cool
off,
and
we
will
 likely
head
into
a
cooler
mulQ‐decadal
climate
regime.”
 



‐‐


Dr
Todd
Crawford,
WSI
Seasonal
Forecaster

  23. 23. Spring
2009
Weather
Driver:


 La
Nina
Redux


  24. 24. Typical
January
–
March
Weather
During
 Moderate
to
Strong
El
Nino
and
La
Nina

  25. 25. Summary
Points


 •  Science:

>90%
likely
(“virtually
certain”)
climate
change
will
result
in
significant
 global
food
disrupBons
this
century
 •  Tropics
and
sub‐tropics
the
most
at
risk
for
significant
disrupBon;
impacBng
the
 most
vulnerable
populaBons
 •  SoluBons
likely
to
come
in
the
form
of
adapBve
technologies
and
increasing
 use
of
financial
hedging
instruments
 •  PoliBcal
debate
re:
climate
change
may
be
heaBng
up
over
the
next
few
years
if
 the
PDO
phase
shik
results
in
a
long‐term
return
to
cooler
temperatures
 •  ComplicaBng
the
transformaBonal
and
adapBve
changes
needed
to
 manage
the
coming
challenges


  26. 26. QuesBons?

 Paul
Walsh,
G2
Weather
Intelligence
LLC
 –  Paul.Walsh@G2Weather.com
 –  Direct:



+1.917.463.4238
 –  Mobile:

+1.610.246.0623
 –  Blog/Website:

www.G2Weather.com
 “Changing
the
 way
business
 thinks
about
 the
weather”


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