Objective Capital's Industrial Metals, Minerals & Investment Summit 2010
London Chamber of Commerce and Industry
3 November 2010
Speaker: Richard Poulden, Sirius Minerals
The Chinese agricultural revolution and building the new potash powerhouse
1. INDUSTRIAL METALS, MINERALS
AND MINEABLE ENERGY
INVESTMENT SUMMIT 2010
LONDON CHAMBER OF COMMERCE & INDUSTRY ● WEDNESDAY, 30 NOV 2010
www.ObjectiveCapitalConferences.com
The Chinese agricultural revolution
and building the new potash powerhouse
Richard Poulden – Deputy Chairman, Sirius Minerals
2. BUILDING THE NEW POTASH POWERHOUSE
Objective Capital Investment Summit– 3 November 2010
SIRIUS MINERALS PLC
3. Important Notice
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Neither the Company nor any other person makes any guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the
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4. • Potash is highly valuable and strategic
• Sirius is the only globally diversified potash development
company and the only potash company quoted in London
• Multiple projects in OECD countries
• Committed to becoming a major low cost and low risk
producer of potash
• 2nd value horizon in related environmental technology
• Experienced development team
Investment Overview
Globally diversified portfolio of potash projects
5. Board of Directors
Comprehensive spread of skills and experience
Former Chief Financial Officer and Business
Development Director of Fortescue Metals Group
during its major growth phase from start-up to
multi-billion dollar iron ore producer. Previously
Director of Consolidated Rutile, CFO Iluka
Resources.
Christopher Catlow, Chairman
Successful companies in natural resources,
healthcare, technology, venture investment. MA
Oxford, MBA London/Harvard, merchant banker,
Barrister.
Richard Poulden, Deputy Chairman
Project evaluation for Rio Tinto, Senior Geologist
Exploration North America. Experience in
copper, lead, zinc, gold, diamonds, iron ore
across Russia, Africa, and Europe.
Derek Stonley, Director
Chairman Z/Yen Group. Seismology, cartography
for oil & gas, then financial services. Created
global oil industry cartographic standard
databases Geodat and Mundocart.
Michael Mainelli, Non-Exec Director
Photo Photo
Photo
Photo
Intercontinental Hotels Africa and the Middle
East. Management buy-in of 25 hotels from
Queens Moat Houses plc with Duke Street
Capital. Floatation of Top Notch Health Clubs on
AIM.
Jonathon Harrison, Finance Director
Photo
6. • Boyd Petrosearch
– Global geophysics leaders specialising in Potash/Salt
exploration
– Seismic project management and data interpretation
experts
• North Rim Exploration
– Leading geoscience and engineering group specialising
in Potash development
– Assessment, verification and mine planning capabilities
• Schlumberger
– Global drilling expertise, subsurface engineering &
project development
Technical Partnerships
World leading expertise
7. • Potash is of critical importance and value
• Sirius is developing a globally diversified portfolio of potash
projects
• Committed to being a large-scale, low cost, reliable supplier
• Focused on low risk countries with access to reliable
infrastructure
Strategy to Create Shareholder Value
To become one of the world’s most important potash suppliers
8. • Plants require three primary nutrients above all others:
– Nitrogen (N): promotes protein formation, growth and yield
– Phosphorus (P): helps root development, photosynthesis, and drought
resistance
– Potassium (K): helps photosynthesis, strengthens cell, increases
resistance, and importantly speeds the absorption of N and P
• NPK fertilizers are vital to the global food supply
• Potassium has no substitute in plant physiological function
• Potash has no commercial substitute
Potash 101
One of life’s basic building blocks
9. Population Growth
• More People means
More Food
Less Land
• More Food from
Less Land
Decreasing Soil Quality
• More fertilisers needed to
maintain crop yields
= Potash Demand Growth
Megatrend: Food Security
Complex problem, simple equation, simple answer
WORLD WORLD
ASIA
AFRICA
WORLD
ASIA
AFRICA
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
pop.
millions World Population Growth Projection
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
ha/p Arable Land per Person
Source: United Nations
Source: FAO Statistics Division 2009
10. CHINA
INDIA
1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
(USD) GNI per Capita Growth in Asia
• The global diet is changing
• Increased demand for meat as
affluence rises
• Increased meat production requires
increased productivity of animal feed
Increased meat demand
= Increased potash demand
Added Demand Pressure: Protein Demand
Making the problem worse, but still a simple solution
0
2
4
6
8
Poultry Pork Beef
Common Feed Conversion Ratios
Approximate kg Grain Required per kg Meat
Source: FAO Statistics Division
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
kg/p Global Meat Consumption
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2009
Source: FAO Statistics Division
11. • Biofuels have emerged as a potential solution to climate change and
energy security
• Debate continues on lifecycle greenhouse gas reduction
• Forecasts vary but long-term targets of between 30% and 50% of
transportation fuel being replaced would significantly boost demands on
biofuel crops
• Key biofuels crops – sugar cane, corn, rape seed, palm oil, and soybean
are all major potash users
• Increased biofuel demand diverts further arable land away from food
production
Increased biofuel demand = Increased potash demand
Added Demand Pressure: Biofuels
Making the problem worse, but still a simple solution
12. Rest of World
USA
China
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Brazil
North America
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
Latin America
Middle East
East Asia
Global Supply and Demand for Potash
The browncharts show global percentage
of supplyfromkeyexporters
The blue charts show global percentage of
demandfromkeyimporters
• Asia represents a
large growing
demand market ~54%
• Production is
concentrated
between Canada and
Russia / Belarus
• Three marketing
groups control over
70% of supply
Market Structure
Asia and particularly China and India are key markets
• The concentration of supply over large consumers provides
opportunity for Sirius
Source: PotashCorp DataTool Markets Estimates
13. • Sirius and Sino-Agri signed an MOU in August
• This gives an extensible 180 days for the parties to
agree:
– An off take agreement for the Adavale potash
– A joint development agreement for Adavale
• Sino Agri is part of the second largest fertilizer distributor
in China
• They recently placed a potash mine in Laos into first
phase production
MOU Announced with Sino Agri
14. Saskatchewan/Williston Basin
• ~33% of the world’s Potash
comes from Williston Basin
• Estimates* of 50 billion tonnes
of Potash in North Dakota
• Sirius holds 50km2 of claims
• Close to rail, gas, and water
• 250km northwest of Bismark
• Known exploration targets
– Historic data on all properties from previous exploration
– High quality solution mining targets ready for drilling based on 2D seismic
– New drilling programme underway
North America
Dakota Salts Project – Williston Basin, North Dakota
* North Dakota State Government Geological Survey: https://www.dmr.nd.gov/ndgs/mineral/nd_saltnew.asp
15. • Sirius has undertaken a detailed reinterpretation of the
existing seismic and analysis of the existing core
• Prairie evaporate contains significant thicknesses of salts
principally:
– Halite (conventional salt)
– Sylvite (potash)
North America
Dakota Salts Project – Williston Basin, North Dakota
• Initial volumetric calculations based on
preliminary core:
– 6 to 10.7 metres thickness of Potash
– 18 to 25 % grade K2O
– Depending on grade: 2.1 to 5.2 million
metric tonnes per km2
– 2,450m to 2,750m deep
16. Boree salt in the Adavale Basin
• 602km2 of claims
• 50km south of Blackall
• Rail and water available
• Data from prior exploration
– Amoseas & Phillips-Kuny 1960’s
– Esso Australia and AAR 1980’s
– Poseidon 1983/84
– Denison Resources 1988/89
• Significant Potash known to exist in Boree from previous drillings
• Drilling sites identified from recently completed seismic interpretation
Australia
Adavale Project, Queensland
17. • Historical drilling and assay
results suggested 18% KCl in the
Boree
• Historical sampling and analysis
not focused on potash
• Photo’s of old core show good
quality potash
• Negotiations with Sino Agri
progressing
Australia
Adavale Project, Queensland
Historic Drilling
Bonnie 1 Core sample
from 2,244m.
Sylvite matric in
sylvinite interval
18. Canning Basin
• 1,250km2 of claims
• 200km SE of Broome
• Close to energy projects
• Existing data from prior
Rio Tinto exploration
• Mallowa salts underlay the
claims approx 450 metres
thick at a depth of 550 metres
• Identified as prospective for economic Potash mineralisation (RTX Report
No. 28456)
• Seismic and drilling targets currently being generated
Australia
Derby Salt Project, Western Australia
19. Barriers to Entry
Barriers shape corporate strategy
Globally diversified portfolio of projects in place
Sirius Strategic Response
Limited reserves outside control
of the existing producers
Common Views on Barriers to Entry
1 1
Untapped reserves often in
difficult locations
2
High development costs
3
Long lead times for greenfield
mines
4
Environmental opposition
5
Assumption that operating costs
of new supply will exceed existing
6
Projects in OECD countries and close to existing
infrastructure2
Build direct partnerships with major customers
that can assist financing – e.g. SinoAgri MOU3
Project pipeline, fast-track production, major long-
term customer partnerships4
Sirius’ 2nd horizon environmental technologies
potentially add value to potash5
Use low cost techniques and low cost finance
where possible6
20. • Sirius is developing key carbon and energy storage patents and technology
through its 100% acquisitions of:
– CO2 Energy Storage Pty Ltd (QLD, Australia),
– Bicarb Sequestration Pty Ltd, and
– CO2 Energy Storage Ltd (Nevada, USA)
• North Dakota is the most prospective of US states for wind power
– The US Government has expressed broad support for wind power initiatives
– The generation of wind power requires storage to conserve energy and smooth loads
– Sirius and the Electrical Power Research Institute (EPRI) are conducting a cost-benefit analysis for a Bulk Energy
Storage (BES) facility servicing a 134MW power plant
– Multiple potential value streams including load levelling – may also capture CO2 credits
• North Dakota Project is very close to significant hydrocarbon pipelines
– Salt caverns are a relatively efficient form of storage for hydrocarbons
• Queensland’s abundance of coal and emerging gasification industry also
presents opportunities for Sirius’ technologies
Environmental Technologies
A valuable 2nd horizon of value for Sirius
21. Sirius’ Place in the Industry
Deeply undervalued with a big opportunity
Company Sector Focus Location Status ‘08 Prodn Market Cap
Sirius
(AIM:SXX)
2 potash Australia, USA
Exploration, No
resources
N/A £51m
Western Potash
(TSX:WPX)
2 potash Canada
1 Exploration , 1
Resource
N/A C$66m
MagIndustries
(TSX:MAA)
1 potash &
Magnesium
Republic of Congo Resource, EPC & Funding N/A C$140m
Potash One
(TSX:KCL)
1 potash Canada 2.5Mtpa PFS N/A C$306m
Intrepid Potash
(NYSE:IPI)
3 potash USA Production ~ 1Mt US$2bn
Kali & Salz
(XETRA:SDF)
Multiple potash &
Magnesium
Europe Diversified ~ 3.6Mt €8.4bn
ICL
(TASE:ICL)
Multiple potash &
Phosphate
Israel, Europe, N/S
America & China
Diversified ~ 5Mt US$67bn
Mosaic Group
(NYSE:MOS)
Diversified N-P-K Canada, USA Diversified ~ 7.1Mt US$27bn
PotashCorp
(NYSE:POT)
Diversified N-P-K Canada, USA Diversified ~ 8.7Mt US$43bn
22. • Acquired a portfolio of Potash projects in OECD countries
• Undertaken comprehensive seismic and drilling data review in North Dakota
and Queensland, with Western Australia underway
• Advanced production protocols with Government and commenced drilling
programme in North Dakota
• Advanced commercial relationship with Sino Agri
• Commenced investigations of complementary environmental value-adding
technologies
Building The New Potash Powerhouse
Achievements to date
23. • Globally diversified potash developer
• Committed to becoming a long-term,
low-cost, low risk supplier
• Quality projects in the best locations
• Experienced Board
Investment Proposition
Building the New Potash Powerhouse
24. BUILDING THE NEW POTASH POWERHOUSE
Objective Capital Investment Summit– 3 November 2010
SIRIUS MINERALS PLC