A presentation of the Real-Time Delphi Futures Methodology

1. The Millennium Project October, 2007

9. No Questions Your Responses Group Reasons 1 When will Israel be recognized as a nation by the Palestinian Authority? Link go Your estimate: 2008 Num Responding: 16 Average: 2010 Your reasons: Conciliation is mandatory Things will happen fast when the suicide bombing stops Conciliation is mandatory 2 When will cell phones replace 75% of standard phones? Link go Your estimate: 2010 Num Responding: 15 Average:2010 Your reasons: Cells phones leap frog infrastructure Cells phones leap frog infrastructure Too many towers required 3 When will a method be found to denature spent uranium rods? Link go Your estimate: 2050 Num Responding:5 Average:2100 Your reasons DIFFERENT THAN AVERAGE Immensely valuable Tough to do

10. Number Possible Project Importance to the MP . 1 Promotion of 2007 SOF (translations, launchings, reviews, Foreign Affairs ad, mailings, etc.) Are there any new techniques that we have not tried that may prove effective? Should the Nodes have responsibility for selling in their countries? Should we print free copies for the General Assembly? Your answer has been entered, and you may change it at any time. The average group answer 6.1 Respondents: 8 Submit only this cell Reasons click here 2 Complete and issue a new CD ROM: Futures Research Methodology 3.0 (Jerry) We have the raw materials already in hand but not the time to complete. What else can we do to finish this project? The average group answer will appear after you have entered a value above Respondents: 5 Submit only this cell Reasons click here

11. 72 65 Submit Submit Number Possible Development Likelihood by 2030 (%) 1 National programs for improving collective intelligence Some richer as well as lower income countries have (by this year of 2030) made improving collective intelligence a national goal; this includes improving individual as well as intelligence for their nations-as-whole. Click here to see references Likelihood by 2030 The average group answer: 61,7 Respondents: 195 Comments on this possibility (page 2) click here 2 Just in time knowledge and learning Rote learning has diminished in importance. With ubiquitous computing and education for life-long learning, 'just in time knowledge' has become the norm. Reasoning, problem solving, and learning strategies form the core focus of public educational systems. Click here to see references Likelihood by 2030 The average group answer: 71.1 Respondents: 185 Comments on this possibility (page 2) click here

12. Variables What is the best plausible value this variable can achieve in 2016? What is the worst plausible value this variable can achieve in 2016? How important is this variable to the future of the world over the next 10 years (10= essential) How important is this variable to the future of your country over the next 10 years (10= essential) 1 Infant mortality (deaths per 1,000 births) World (1983)= 89.1 World (2005)= 50.0 Singapore (2005)= 2.29 Angola (2005)= 187.5 Click here to see references Best plausible global value in 2016? 38 The average group answer: 40.5 Respondents: 17 Reasons click here (after submitting a numerical answer above.) Worst plausible global value in 2016? 90.0 The average group answer: 100 Respondents: 11 Reasons click here (after submitting a numerical answer above.) Its importance to the future of the world? 7.0 The average group answer: 8.0 Respondents: 6 Reasons click here (after submitting a numerical answer above.) Its importance to the future of your country? 5.0 Respondents: 4 Reasons click here (after submitting a numerical answer above.) 2 Food availability (Cal/cap) World (1980)= 2549 World (2002)= 2798 Egypt (2002)= 3300 Eritrea (2002)= 1500 Click here to see reference Best plausible global value in 2016? 3000 The average group answer: 3,166.5 Respondents: 21 Reasons click here (after submitting a numerical answer above.) Worst plausible global value in 2016? 2300 The average group answer: 2,400.0 Respondents: 11 Reasons click here (after submitting a numerical answer above.) Its importance to the future of the world? 6 The average group answer: 4.5 Respondents: 21 Reasons click here (after submitting a numerical answer above.) Its importance to the future of your country? 7 Respondents: 11 Reasons click here (after submitting a numerical answer above.)

13. . No serious negative effects Likely to be effective Implement quickly Plausible Provides useful feedback Reasonable cost Weights Avg.: 4 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 4 Justify Avg.: 6 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 5 Justify Avg.: 7 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 6 Justify Avg.: 8 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 7 Justify Avg.: 3 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 4 Justify Avg.: 6 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 5 Justify Governments modify school curricula to remove cultural biases Avg.: 10 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 10 Justify Avg.: 6 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 1 Justify Avg.: 4 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 6 Justify Avg.: 5 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 4 Justify Avg.: 9 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 8 Justify Avg.: 9 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 10 Justify The world implements a vastly improved disease early warning system Avg.: 2 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 1 Justify Avg.: 3 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 2 Justify Avg.: 1 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 2 Justify Avg.: 5 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 7 Justify Avg.: 9 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 8 Justify Avg.: 2 Responses: 5 Reasons. Input 1 Justify