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Defining reference points for the
        Precautionary Approach:
persistent attempts to neatly arrange the
 boundary between science and policy




            Martin Pastoors
How has ICES operated in defining
 precautionary reference points?
Three conclusions
1. Reference points are not science and were
   never intended to be science
2. Uncertainty was hidden instead of at the
   center
3. Boundary between science and policy
   remains contested
The precautionary approach as a
          political decision

Rio declaration (1992)

   (Principle 15) “lack of full scientific certainty shall
   not be used as a reason for postponing cost-
   effective measures to prevent environmental
   degradation.”
Making the political decision more
              operational
UN Straddling Fish Stock and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks
agreement (1995)

  “Two types of precautionary reference points should
  be used: conservation, or limit, reference points and
  management, or target, reference points.”
1997: EC asks ICES to investigate reference
  points with 95, 90 and 80% risk levels
ICES assumed a probability level


“The precautionary basis for advice given by ACFM
will be that, for a given stock, the probability of
exceeding the limit should be no more than 5% in
any given year.”




                              Source: ICES PA Study Group, 1997
2. Uncertainty was hidden
 instead of at the center
How could policy-makers could have
  made a decision on risk-levels?
Presentation was not transparent


“Fpa = Flim e-1.645 σ
where σ is a measure of uncertainty in the total F
estimate, typically taken as 0.2-0.3”.




                              Source: ICES PA Study Group, 1998
Table with reference points in 1998
A choice in risk-tolerance was never
presented. Precaution was scientifized
3. Boundary between science and
     policy remains contested
Original idea for boundary science-policy

                            “but fisheries management
                         agencies should be involved in
                            decisions on precautionary
                                      reference points”
                                                Policy
Science
“It is in ACFM’s
mandate to make
final decisions on
limit reference point”
But science could not give the answers:
ongoing struggles to refine reference points
Precautionary approach is really a boundary
concept: different meaning to different groups
Boundary science-policy is dynamic
  and needs awareness of roles
What have we learned?

1. Precautionary approach reference points are
   not science and were never intended to be
   science
2. Uncertainty was hidden instead of at the
   center
3. Boundary between science and policy
   remains contested; needs awareness
Yes, it is difficult to neatly arrange the
boundary between science and policy

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ICES and precautionary approach

  • 1. Defining reference points for the Precautionary Approach: persistent attempts to neatly arrange the boundary between science and policy Martin Pastoors
  • 2.
  • 3. How has ICES operated in defining precautionary reference points?
  • 4. Three conclusions 1. Reference points are not science and were never intended to be science 2. Uncertainty was hidden instead of at the center 3. Boundary between science and policy remains contested
  • 5. The precautionary approach as a political decision Rio declaration (1992) (Principle 15) “lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost- effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.”
  • 6. Making the political decision more operational UN Straddling Fish Stock and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks agreement (1995) “Two types of precautionary reference points should be used: conservation, or limit, reference points and management, or target, reference points.”
  • 7. 1997: EC asks ICES to investigate reference points with 95, 90 and 80% risk levels
  • 8. ICES assumed a probability level “The precautionary basis for advice given by ACFM will be that, for a given stock, the probability of exceeding the limit should be no more than 5% in any given year.” Source: ICES PA Study Group, 1997
  • 9. 2. Uncertainty was hidden instead of at the center
  • 10. How could policy-makers could have made a decision on risk-levels?
  • 11. Presentation was not transparent “Fpa = Flim e-1.645 σ where σ is a measure of uncertainty in the total F estimate, typically taken as 0.2-0.3”. Source: ICES PA Study Group, 1998
  • 12. Table with reference points in 1998
  • 13. A choice in risk-tolerance was never presented. Precaution was scientifized
  • 14. 3. Boundary between science and policy remains contested
  • 15. Original idea for boundary science-policy “but fisheries management agencies should be involved in decisions on precautionary reference points” Policy Science “It is in ACFM’s mandate to make final decisions on limit reference point”
  • 16. But science could not give the answers: ongoing struggles to refine reference points
  • 17. Precautionary approach is really a boundary concept: different meaning to different groups
  • 18. Boundary science-policy is dynamic and needs awareness of roles
  • 19. What have we learned? 1. Precautionary approach reference points are not science and were never intended to be science 2. Uncertainty was hidden instead of at the center 3. Boundary between science and policy remains contested; needs awareness
  • 20. Yes, it is difficult to neatly arrange the boundary between science and policy

Editor's Notes

  1. Undercover.Writing a PhD on the role of Science in Policy making before I came to RIVO and ICES.Participant observation for 10 yearsMy new topic: ICES advisory science in relation to fisheries managementSpecific: MBAL, Precautionary approach, MSY and MSE. Social science perspective (boundarywork between science and policy). Hopefully finished: 2012.
  2. and re-arranging the boundary between science and policy
  3. Show the three main lessons with a social science perspective: (1) reference points are not science and were not intended to be science, (2) undertainty is hidden instead of at the center and (3) boundary between science and policy can not be neatly drawn
  4. Biological reference points are not science and were never intended to be scienceRefer to FAO and UN.
  5. Biological reference points are not science and were never intended to be scienceRefer to FAO and UN.
  6. Sustainable, precaution, conservation,
  7. Show the three main lessons with a social science perspective: (1) reference points are not science and were not intended to be science, (2) undertainty is hidden instead of at the center and (3) boundary between science and policy can not be neatly drawn
  8. More to come in the paper.