1. www.kurtosis.co.uk
Boiling a frog
Changing demographics in NHS Anywhere
The boiling frog story is a widespread anecdote describing a
frog slowly being boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is
placed in boiling water, it will jump out, but if it is placed in cold
water that is slowly heated, it will not perceive the danger and
will be cooked to death. The story is often used as a metaphor
for the inability of people to react to significant changes that
occur gradually. According to contemporary biologists the
premise of the story is not literally true; a frog submerged and
gradually heated will jump out. However, some 19th-century
experiments suggested that the underlying premise is true,
provided the heating is sufficiently gradual.
1 / 58

2. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
1981
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
2 / 58

3. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
1982
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
3 / 58

4. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
1983
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
4 / 58

5. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
1984
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
5 / 58

6. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
1985
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
6 / 58

7. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
1986
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
7 / 58

8. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
1987
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
8 / 58

9. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
1988
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
9 / 58

10. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
1989
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
10 / 58

11. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
1990
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
11 / 58

12. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
1991
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
12 / 58

13. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
1992
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
13 / 58

14. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
1993
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
14 / 58

15. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
1994
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
15 / 58

16. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
1995
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
16 / 58

17. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
1996
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
17 / 58

18. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
1997
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
18 / 58

19. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
1998
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
19 / 58

20. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
1999
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
20 / 58

21. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2000
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
21 / 58

22. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2001
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
22 / 58

23. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2002
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
23 / 58

24. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2003
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
24 / 58

25. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2004
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
25 / 58

26. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2005
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
26 / 58

27. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2006
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
27 / 58

28. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2007
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
28 / 58

29. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2008
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
29 / 58

30. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2009
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
30 / 58

31. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2010
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
31 / 58

32. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2011
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
32 / 58

33. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2012
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
33 / 58

34. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2013
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
34 / 58

35. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2014
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
35 / 58

36. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2015
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
36 / 58

37. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2016
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
37 / 58

38. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2017
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
38 / 58

39. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2018
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
39 / 58

40. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2019
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
40 / 58

41. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2020
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
41 / 58

42. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2021
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
42 / 58

43. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2022
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
43 / 58

44. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2023
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
44 / 58

45. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2024
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
45 / 58

46. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2025
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
46 / 58

47. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2026
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
47 / 58

48. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2027
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
48 / 58

49. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2028
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
49 / 58

50. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2029
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
50 / 58

51. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2030
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
51 / 58

52. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2031
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
52 / 58

53. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2032
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
53 / 58

54. NHS ANYWHERE
Population by age and sex
2033
Source: General Register Office for Scotland Mid-
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 year population estimates
54 / 58

55. 15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000
55 / 58

56. 1981:
 11,000 Over 75s
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000
56 / 58

57. 1981:
 11,000 Over 75s
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000
57 / 58

58. 1981: 2033:
 11,000 Over 75s  40,000 Over 75s
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000
58 / 58