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Enabling model based decision support[1]
 

Enabling model based decision support[1]

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    Enabling model based decision support[1] Enabling model based decision support[1] Document Transcript

    • Enabling Model-Based Decision Support for PlantOptimizationAn Industry White PaperStephen Sarafian, Research & Development, Aspen Technology, Inc.Ken Dooley, Industry Marketing, Aspen Technology, Inc.© 2012 Aspen Technology, Inc. AspenTech®, aspenONE®, the aspenONE® logo, the Aspen leaf logo, and OPTIMIZE are trademarks of Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. All othertrademarks are property of their respective owners. 11-1969-0612
    • About AspenTechAspenTech is a leading supplier of software that optimizes process manufacturing—for energy, chemicals,pharmaceuticals, engineering and construction, power & utilities, mining, pulp and paper, and other millproducts industries that manufacture and produce products from a chemical process. With integratedaspenONE® solutions, process manufacturers can implement best practices for optimizing theirengineering, manufacturing, and supply chain operations. As a result, AspenTech customers are betterable to increase capacity, improve margins, reduce costs, and become more energy efficient. To see howthe world’s leading process manufacturers rely on AspenTech to achieve their operational excellencegoals, visit www.aspentech.com.
    • Enabling Model-Based Decision Support for Plant OptimizationExecutive SummaryCompanies in the process industries worldwide are experiencing increased volatility in their performance while operatingin a challenging and competitive environment. These challenges include: economic uncertainty, global demand shifts,fluctuating feedstock and production prices, eroding margins and developing and retaining a talent pool. Meeting thesechallenges requires making complex business decisions with the agility to adapt to dynamic market conditions. Solutionsthat enable the optimization of the decision-making process provide significant value, contributing to the success ofoperations and increased profitability.Decision-support tools have been developed for specific business functions such as process modeling, design, simulationand optimization, production planning and scheduling, performance monitoring, energy management and more. Thesesolutions lead to improved decision-making and operating efficiencies. This paper will examine an easy-to-use tool thatextends decision-support capabilities to a wide variety of stakeholders in the design and operation of plant facilities.Industrial applications implemented by various companies will also be presented to illustrate practical use of this solution. Excel Model End Users Aspen Plus Model Author Aspen HYSYSFigure 1: Aspen Simulation Workbook (ASW) enables Excel users to rapidly run scenarios using the underlyingrigorous models to analyze plant data, monitor performance, and make better decisions.© 2012 Aspen Technology, Inc. AspenTech®, aspenONE®, the aspenONE® logo, the Aspen leaf logo, and OPTIMIZE are trademarks of Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. All othertrademarks are property of their respective owners. 11-1969-0612 1
    • Enabling Model-Based Decision Support for Plant OptimizationIntroductionImproving operations is critical for process plants to remain competitive. Leading companies around the world are usingmodel-based decision support as an operations best practice to achieve their goals. Some of the benefits include:• 2-6% improvement in plant capacity• Up to 10% reduction in energy consumption• Better product consistency• Increased safety and reliability• Labor savingsModel-based decisions are dependent on process simulation models that are developed by users familiar with theunderlying simulation tools. However, many companies fail to leverage models beyond the design process because plantengineers and operators may not have sufficient knowledge of and experience in the use of the process simulators. On theother hand, most users are comfortable with Microsoft Excel®. To address this gap, AspenTech offers a solution that easilylinks process models with Excel worksheets to enable use of the models by a broader range of users including operationspersonnel. Putting models into the hands of operations staff provides them with a decision-support tool based on rigorousChemical Engineering principles.Need for Integrating Simulation Models with ExcelAspen HYSYS® and Aspen Plus® are industry-leading process simulators that have been proven over decades forconceptual design, optimization, business planning, asset management and performance monitoring in process industries.These process simulators feature:• Best-in-class physical property methods and data• Comprehensive library of unit operation models• An efficient workflow for process design, equipment sizing, and preliminary cost estimationProcess simulation models contain valuable information such as plant targets, equipment performance and inferredproperties. However, often there are relatively few users that can manipulate these models to access this valuableinformation. Aspen Simulation Workbook (ASW) provides integration between process simulators such as Aspen Plusand Aspen HYSYS and Microsoft Excel that enables model authors to deploy process models to a wider range of modelusers (Figure 1). Model authors follow a simple copy/paste workflow to attach model variables to tables in Excel, enablingmodel users to interact with the model using Excel. The ASW tab in Excel provides easy-to-use controls to enhance theExcel interface with unit operation icons, tables, buttons and other form control actions, resulting in a convenient andinteractive environment for model usage. Models can also be linked to online plant data for monitoring, generating reportsand on-demand decision making.© 2012 Aspen Technology, Inc. AspenTech®, aspenONE®, the aspenONE® logo, the Aspen leaf logo, and OPTIMIZE are trademarks of Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. All othertrademarks are property of their respective owners. 11-1969-0612 2
    • Enabling Model-Based Decision Support for Plant OptimizationAspen Simulation WorkbookAspen Simulation Workbook provides easy and robust integration between AspenTech’s process simulators and MicrosoftExcel, allowing you to rapidly deploy models to a wider range of users without writing a single line of code. During modelbuilding it is important to ensure that the models are robust over a reasonably wide range of conditions. Appropriateengineering judgment must be applied to keep the model as simple as possible for the intended application or purpose,resulting in a robust and interactive experience for the casual Excel-based user.Excel-based Conditional FormattingSeveral features of Microsoft Excel are especially convenient to use with Aspen Simulation Workbook. For example, the“conditional formatting” feature can be used to change the font, background color, and other formatting associated with acell based on the value of the data in that cell or based on a user-specified criteria (Figure 2).Figure 2: Conditional Formatting can be used to make your Aspen SimulationWorkbook model interface more visually appealing and easier to use.Links to Plant DataLinking simulation models to plant data within the same Excel sheet allows the model user to:• Populate simulation cases with measured plant data• Send simulation results back to the plant information system using tags• Overlay model predictions with plant data in plots and tablesPlant data tags can be linked to Excel using the standard features of most process historians such as Aspen InfoPlus. 21®.The tuned models are then used in a predictive mode for what-if studies and other operational improvement scenarios.ASW provides an easy mechanism for Excel connectivity to plant databases, allowing plant data to be retrieved ondemand and applied to the simulation model (Figure 3).Plant data tags can be updated each time a process simulation case is run from within Aspen Simulation Workbook. Afterthe simulation is complete, the tags mapped to model variables are updated with calculation results from the simulation.© 2012 Aspen Technology, Inc. AspenTech®, aspenONE®, the aspenONE® logo, the Aspen leaf logo, and OPTIMIZE are trademarks of Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. All othertrademarks are property of their respective owners. 11-1969-0612 3
    • Enabling Model-Based Decision Support for Plant Optimization Figure 3: ASW links simulation models to plant data. Aspen Plus Aspen HYSYS Excel ASW Aspen InfoPlus.21 and other historiansScenario Analysis and Performance MonitoringAspen Simulation Workbook makes it easy to run hundreds of scenarios through your model to analyze historical data,analyze process sensitivity, check design cases, evaluate operating conditions, or evaluate a range of feedstocks. TheScenario feature sets up a table where the user can enter the values of several model inputs (columns) for several cases(rows). The scenarios are executed sequentially, with key simulation results filling in additional columns. The resultingtable makes it very easy to compare a large number of cases. When used with historical plant data, the Scenario featuremakes it easy to identify changes in plant performance (e.g., changes caused by exchanger fouling over weeks or months),monitoring equipment, inferring properties, and more.Workflow OptimizationWorkflows can be optimized to easily automate repetitive tasks, such as extracting data from simulations to rapidlygenerate reports and charts using Excel (Figure 4). Figure 4: Results from disparate locations are consolidated into a single report showing linked plant historian data.© 2012 Aspen Technology, Inc. AspenTech®, aspenONE®, the aspenONE® logo, the Aspen leaf logo, and OPTIMIZE are trademarks of Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. All othertrademarks are property of their respective owners. 11-1969-0612 4
    • Enabling Model-Based Decision Support for Plant OptimizationDynamic AnalysisAspen Simulation Workbook provides full support for the use of dynamic models (Figure 5). It allows development ofinterfaces to batch models or dynamic models of continuous processes, and displays the model results in profile tables orExcel-based strip charts. Users can interact with the models as they run and see the results in real or faster-than-real time.Figure 5: Aspen Simulation Workbook supports use of dynamics such as this dynamic crude unit model.Links to Third-Party ToolsAspen Simulation Workbook also recognizes the need to link models to third-party tools. Typical applications includelinking models to risk management software, equipment design tools, Monte-Carlo optimization engines, or costestimation tools. Aspen Simulation Workbook supports linking your models to these tools using Excel as an integrationenvironment.Aspen Simulation Workbook is tightly integrated with the aspenONE® Engineering solutions identified below, enablingseamless interoperability between AspenTech’s engineering tools and Microsoft Excel.• Aspen Plus, including Aspen Polymers, Aspen Rate-Based Distillation, and Aspen Plus Dynamics• Aspen HYSYS, including Aspen HYSYS Dynamics and Aspen HYSYS Upstream• Aspen HYSYS Petroleum Refining, including reactor calibration environments• Aspen Custom Modeler® and related products including Aspen Adsorption, Aspen Model Runner, and Aspen Chromatography (all run modes are supported)• Aspen Exchanger Design and Rating products including Aspen Shell and Tube Exchanger, Aspen Air Cooled Exchanger, Aspen Plate Fin Exchanger, Aspen Shell and Tube Mechanical, and Aspen Fired Heater© 2012 Aspen Technology, Inc. AspenTech®, aspenONE®, the aspenONE® logo, the Aspen leaf logo, and OPTIMIZE are trademarks of Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. All othertrademarks are property of their respective owners. 11-1969-0612 5
    • Enabling Model-Based Decision Support for Plant OptimizationCase StudiesCompanies have successfully used ASW to improve plant operations with robust simulation models for improved decisionmaking, knowledge transfer from experts to less experienced plant personnel, and reduced engineering time through theautomation of complex workflows.ValeroValero, a large independent North American refiner, was challenged to achieve optimal performance whenever crudeswere switched. They needed to determine key plant operating targets quickly and achieve faster steady state operationwith a goal to reducing operating costs. An ASW interface driven by an Aspen HYSYS-based model was developed. Themodel was made available to operating personnel through an Excel interface, enabling them to make faster and betterdecisions. The resulting improvements reduced analysis times for new feedstock and operating scenarios using the powerof modeling. This company was able to get a much better understanding of their crude unit operation and achieveconsistent and improved performance (Figure 6).1Figure 6: ASW-enabled Excel interface with Aspen HYSYSimproves operations decision-making.ConocoPhillipsConocoPhillips needed to develop a business application to optimize their feedstock selection decisions. However, theyhad disparate custom models from multiple software programs which their business team was not accustomed to using.The company decided to implement an Aspen HYSYS-based solution to leverage the power of rigorous models with anExcel-based interface using Aspen Simulation Workbook. The Excel interface provided a single, easy-to-use environmentwith access to input and results (Figure 7). The refinery was able to make rapid, accurate and profitable feedstockpurchase decisions based on the true understanding of current refinery operations, demand and economics.2© 2012 Aspen Technology, Inc. AspenTech®, aspenONE®, the aspenONE® logo, the Aspen leaf logo, and OPTIMIZE are trademarks of Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. All othertrademarks are property of their respective owners. 11-1969-0612 6
    • Enabling Model-Based Decision Support for Plant Optimization Aspen Simulation Workbook Feed rates and composition in Excel R&D yield validation model in Excel Economic/Profitability Functions in Excel Fractionation model in Aspen HYSYSFigure 7: A business application to leverage the power of rigorous models with an Excel-based interface using Aspen Simulation Workbook.KurarayKuraray is a leading Japanese chemical company which needed to optimize their synthetic fiber manufacturing plant.Kuraray used Aspen Custom Modeler (ACM) to model the fixed bed reactor; this detailed reactor model includedmain/side reactions, heat transfer, catalyst deactivation, and fouling. The reactor model was linked to Excel with ASW tobuild an off-line decision-support system. The rigorous model was able to simulate dynamic plant performance withinminutes to predict plant conversion and yield, resulting in significantly improved plant operation.HPCLHPCL, an Indian refiner, needed to reduce energy in the naphtha stabilizer column, reduce steam consumption, andmaintain the Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) of the naphtha. Using ASW, engineers created an online plant performancemonitoring application linking their plant real-time database with an Aspen HYSYS model of the plant. Critical plantvalues and model results were displayed continuously to operators in both a table and graphical format, providingguidance to a larger operational staff that was not familiar with Aspen HYSYS and resulting in a significant reduction insteam consumption and improved product quality.Turbine Air Systems (TAS)Turbine Air Systems is a manufacturer of large modular systems for power, industrial and commercial HVAC industries.They were faced with the challenge of having several complex customized systems which needed a thorough designanalysis; however they only had a few design experts, and this was the limiting factor to their growth. TAS used AspenHYSYS models linked to Excel with ASW, enabling even more model users to evaluate projects using standardized designs.ASW ensured model-based rigorous decision making by non-engineers (model users) with the same high level ofconfidence as decisions made by expert model authors. The ASW application, which leveraged existing validated AspenHYSYS models, resulted in improved internal operations, better productivity, departmental interactions, distribution ofresponsibility, and faster project execution — leading to more projects, more clients, and increased revenue andprofitability.3© 2012 Aspen Technology, Inc. AspenTech®, aspenONE®, the aspenONE® logo, the Aspen leaf logo, and OPTIMIZE are trademarks of Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. All othertrademarks are property of their respective owners. 11-1969-0612 7
    • Enabling Model-Based Decision Support for Plant OptimizationSummaryEconomic uncertainty coupled with changing market dynamics have forced the process industries to take a closer look attheir plant design and operations to cut costs and compete better in an increasingly global environment. Processindustries have already made a significant investment in building detailed process models of their plants. Processsimulation experts can now quickly create Excel access to their models that enable the sharing of information andknowledge with a wider group of users. ASW extends the value of existing process simulation models from conceptualengineering to plant operations. ASW saves time and eliminates the need for complex programming while enabling casualusers to make educated decisions by leveraging rigorous simulation models resulting in optimized operations. Numerouscompanies have successfully utilized ASW to improve product yield and quality, lower energy consumption, executeprojects faster, save time and labor — ultimately leading to increased profitability.© 2012 Aspen Technology, Inc. AspenTech®, aspenONE®, the aspenONE® logo, the Aspen leaf logo, and OPTIMIZE are trademarks of Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. All othertrademarks are property of their respective owners. 11-1969-0612 8
    • Enabling Model-Based Decision Support for Plant OptimizationReferences1Schumann, David and Gregory Davis, Valero Energy Company, and Piyush Shah, Aspen Technology, Inc., “Application ofSimulation Models in Operations – A Success Story,” Paper AM-09-23, NPRA Annual Meeting, San Antonio, TX, March2009.2Gislason, Jason, ConocoPhillips, “Using Aspen Simulation Workbook to Make Confident Feedstock Selections,”AspenTech User Conference, Houston, TX, April 2008.3Brown, Duane and Shawn Lee, Turbine Air Systems, and Livia Wiley, Aspen Technology, “Using Aspen SimulationWorkbook to Screen Prospective Business Opportunities,” AspenTech User Conference, Houston, TX, April 2008.Robertson, Elliott, Burns & McDonnell Engineering, “FEL-2 Optimization of Capital Cost of an NGL Facility Revamp,”OPTIMIZE 2011 AspenTech Global Conference, Washington, D.C., May 2011.© 2012 Aspen Technology, Inc. AspenTech®, aspenONE®, the aspenONE® logo, the Aspen leaf logo, and OPTIMIZE are trademarks of Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. All othertrademarks are property of their respective owners. 11-1969-0612 9
    • Worldwide Headquarters Aspen Technology, Inc. 200 Wheeler Road Burlington, MA 01803 United States phone: +1–781–221–6400 fax: +1–781–221–6410 info@aspentech.com Regional Headquarters Houston, TX | USA phone: +1–281–584–1000 São Paulo | Brazil phone: +55–11–3443–6261 Reading | United Kingdom phone: +44–(0)–1189–226400 Singapore | Republic of Singapore phone: +65–6395–3900 Manama | Bahrain phone: +973–17–50–3000© 2012 Aspen Technology, Inc. AspenTech®, aspenONE®, the aspenONE® logo, the Aspen leaf logo, and OPTIMIZE are trademarks of Aspen For a complete list of offices, please visitTechnology, Inc. All rights reserved. All other trademarks are property of their respective owners. 11-1969-0612 www.aspentech.com/locations