1. Hans Rosling: Asia's rise -- how and when
ハンス・ロスリング：アジアの台頭は果たしていつか？
http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/
hans_rosling_asia_s_rise_how_and_when.html
PARAGRAPH 1 : Once upon a time…
1) When Hans Rosling was 24, where did he go to study?
He went to study in Bangalore, India.
2) What happened during that time which changed his mindset forever?
He realized that the Indian students were better than he was.
PARAGRAPH 2 : You see, I was a study nerd…
1) In Sweden, was Mr. Rosling one of the best students in class?
Yes, he was.
2) How about when he came to India?
In india, he was in the lower quarter (bottom 1/4) of the class.
3) Who studied more…Indian students or Swedish students?
The Indian students studied more.
PARAGRAPH 3: And that, to me, that personal experience…
1) What surprising realization did he have?
He realized that the Western world will not continue to dominate the world forever.
PARAGRAPH 4 : And I will now, here, onstage…
1) What is Hans Rosling trying to predict?
He is trying to predict when Asia will regain its dominant position as the leading part of the world.
2) Has Asia ever been the leading part of the world before?
Yes, for thousands of years it was.

2. PARAGRAPH 5 : But I will start with a historical background…
1) What new technology was available in 1858?
In 1858, the Transatlantic Telegraphic Cable made it’s debut.
2) What did President Buchanan say to Queen Victoria at the end of their “tweet”?
“This telegraph is a fantastic instrument to diffuse religion, civilization, liberty and law throughout the
world.”
PARAGRAPH 6 : Those are nice words…
1) What happened in India in 1858?
The uprising in India was defeated by the British forces.
2) After this event, for how many more years was India forced to be part of the British Empire?
India was part of the British empire for another 89 years.
PARAGRAPH 7 : 1858 in China was the victory…
1) What happened in China in 1858?
The British won the Opium War in China.
2) What did foreign people trade in order to get Chinese goods?
Foreign people were able to trade Opium for Chinese goods.
Think on your own…
3) Opium is a drug. What effect do you think this kind of trade had on Chinese society?
PARAGRAPH 8 : In 1858 in Japan…
1) What happened in Japan in 1858?
Japan was forced to sign the Harris Treaty and accept trade with the U.S.
2) How was Japan different from India and China?
Japan maintained its national sovereignty.

3. PARAGRAPH 9 : And let’s see how much…
1) Look at the Gapminder Graph.
2) What does the x-axis represent?
The x-axis represents income per person.
3) What does the y-axis represent?
It represents life expectency.
PARAGRAPH 10 : And we will see…
1) Were India and China ever richer than Europe?
Yes, they were.
2) Why does Mr. Rosling say that national sovereignty was good for Japan?
Japan is able to start to catch up with the U.S. and the United Kingdom.
PARAGRAPH 11 : And it’s the new century now…
1) What happens to life expectancy and economy when there is a war?
Life expectency becomes lower.
2) When did India become a sovereign nation again?
India became a sovereign nation again in 1947.
PARAGRAPH 12 : In 1949 we saw the emergence…
1) What happened after China became (more) independent in 1949?
Health started to improve, children started to go to school and health services were provided.
2) What happened during Mao Tse Tung’s Great Leap Forward (central planning)?
China fell down very far again on the graph.

4. PARAGRAPH 13 : And we came to 1978…
1) What did China’s new leader, Deng Xiaoping, want with India?
Deng Xiaoping wanted to cooperate with India to catch up with the United States and the UK.
2) Were the economic reforms in China and India successful?
Yes, they were successful.
PARAGRAPH 14 : Now what does it mean…
1) Are all areas in China’s economy growing at the same rate?
No, they are not.
PARAGRAPH 15 : And if I would also look at India…
1) Kerala and the United States are similar in what way?
Kerala and the United States are similar in health.
2) How are they different?
They are different economically.
PARAGRAPH 16 : No, there is one more inequity…
1) What is the business opportunity that Mr. Rosling suggests for the people of Kerala?
He says there is a business opportunity for Kerala in helping to fix the health system in the United States.
PARAGRAPH 17 : Now here we have…
1) What is happening with health and education in most of the world?
In most of the world, health and education is improving.

5. PARAGRAPH 18 : Now, back to my projections…
1) How does he change his graph now?
He puts income per person on the y-axis and time on the x-axis.
2) The projection for 2014 is based on data from what group?
The data is from the IMF.
PARAGRAPH 19 : Now, the question is…
1) How can you describe the recent growth in the United States and Great Britain? (rapid ・ humble)
PARAGRAPH 20 : I can compare to Japan…
1) What was Japan’s economic growth like when it was catching up?
Japan’s growth was very, very fast.
2) What is Japan’s economic growth like now?
Japan’s economic growth is more humble now.
PARAGRAPH 21 : I think I’m in a difficult position here…
1) What is the big obstacle (biggest challenge) to bringing all of the people in China and India into
growth and prosperity?
The biggest challenge is overcoming inequalities.
PARAGRAPH 22 : You know the climate…
1) Why do Indian climate experts say that action has to be taken to stop climate change?
They belive India and Chinal will suffer the most from climate change.

6. PARAGRAPH 23 : But what I’m really worried about…
1) What is Hans Rosling very worried about when/if power shifts away from the west and back to Asia?
He is worried that war might happen.
2) What are two reasons that he gives for why a big war might start?
One reason is that the former rich countries might not be able to accept the shift in power.
Another reason is that Asia might not be ready to be in charge of so much responsibility.
3) He says always avoid war… why? (other than the obvious fact that it’s not good to hurt other people)
War always pushes human beings backward.
4) If these problems that he mentions can be avoided, what does he say will happen?
If we can avoid these problems, we should be ready for a world in equity.
PARAGRAPH 24 : And that vision that I got…
When does he predict that Asia will rise to power again?*
He says that the 27th of July in 2048 is when it will happen.
*(Yes, he’s a little bit joking about the EXACT date, but generally he believes this projection…)
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