1. John R Bryan
Project Director, Rocky Mountain Secure Smart Grid Initiative
President, Secure Smart Grid Association
1 MW NaS Battery
V2G PHEV
Original SmartGridCity Team
Impact of Vehicle Electrification
Beware: there be maths here
November 17, 2009 @ E3 2009
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2. Some Assumptions
✤ Electric drive will be a standard (along with oil derivatives)
✤ We are only talking passenger cars
✤ Battery Prices don’t get more expensive
✤ 4 miles per 1 kWh in a sedan (2010 iMiEV gets 8 miles per kWh)
✤ Service cost per kWh is 11.55 cents (risen from 8.4 to 11.55 since 1995, or 2.3%)
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table5_3.html
✤ Links to Federal source data is linked in the shareable document
✤ I tend to present “eye charts”. Apologies in advance.
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3. $ / kwhr year / range 20 40 75 100 200 400
900 2002 $4,500.00 $9,000.00 $16,875.00 $22,500.00 $45,000.00 $90,000.00
250 2009 $1,250.00 $2,500.00 $4,687.50 $6,250.00 $12,500.00 $25,000.00
Battery Costs
220 2010 $1,100.00 $2,200.00 $4,125.00 $5,500.00 $11,000.00 $22,000.00
190 2011 $950.00 $1,900.00 $3,562.50 $4,750.00 $9,500.00 $19,000.00
160 2012 $800.00 $1,600.00 $3,000.00 $4,000.00 $8,000.00 $16,000.00
130 2013 $650.00 $1,300.00 $2,437.50 $3,250.00 $6,500.00 $13,000.00
100 2014 $500.00 $1,000.00 $1,875.00 $2,500.00 $5,000.00 $10,000.00
70 2015 $350.00 $700.00 $1,312.50 $1,750.00 $3,500.00 $7,000.00
For just Cells (Li-Ion)
✤ from $900 to $250 since 2002 to 2009
✤ 100 mile battery is $6,250 today
✤ 85% of USA trips are < 40 miles
✤ 40 mile pack is $2,500 today
✤ 400 mile pack is only $25,000 today
Lithium Ion Batteries for
Electric Transportation:
Costs and Markets
Haresh Kamath, EPRI
September 22nd, 2009
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4. PG&E has:
Energy services to 15 MM people:
How many EV?
✤
✤ 5.1 MM Electric accounts
✤ 4.2 MM Natural Gas accounts
The United States has:
✤ 142,120,902 Total Accounts or
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/esr/table5.html
✤ 27.86 times bigger
✤ Low: 6,102,838 by 2020
✤ Mid: 14,825,161 by 2020
✤ High: 23,547,483 by 2020
Andrew Tang, Sr Director, Smart Energy Web
Pacific Gas and Electric Company at
The Networked Grid, 11/04/2009 ✤ 2020 is 10 years away and
✤ Low 600,000 EV per year
✤ Mid 1,400,000 EV per year
✤ High 2,400,000 EV per year
✤ US Sales of 10,752,000 in 2007
✤ 5.5% to 21.8% annually
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5. What Size of
Interconnect?
✤ Nissan Leaf has 100 mile range
✤ Tesla Roadster has 240 miles
✤ Mitsubishi iMiEV has 100 miles
✤ Bigger the battery or range the
bigger the plug
✤ 6kW Dryer outlet seems right
✤ $200 - $400 without digging
✤ We’ll assume 6kW connection
Hours to Charge
Leaf Tesla iMiEV
volt amp NEMA Type kW / kWh 24 56 16
110 15 5-15R Normal 1.65 14.55 33.94 9.70
125 30 TT-30 RV Standard 3.75 6.40 14.93 4.27
240 30 6-30R Dryer 7.2 3.33 7.78 2.22
240 50 6-50R Farm Equipment 12 2.00 4.67 1.33 5

6. Figure 2
Power and Energy On a typical day, how many miles
one-way do you travel from home
to work?
✤ Power (kW) per year
✤ 1,400,000 times 6 kW
✤ 8.4 million kW
✤ 11.74 new average coal plants per year
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/page/capacity/existingunitsbs2008.xls http://www.bts.gov/publications/omnistats/
✤ @ $1/W, it could cost $6k per EV volume_03_issue_04/excel/figure_02.xls
Average Total Miles Aggregate Distribution
Commuter Results Margin Population Sample of Miles
Miles Miles
of Error Estimates Size
3 90,600,000 90,600,000 8.39%
1-5 29% 2.32 30.2 578
miles
6-10
miles
22% 2.06 22.3 431 8 178,400,000 269,000,000 16.51% ✤ Energy (kWh) per year
11-15 17% 1.90 17.2 314 13 223,600,000 492,600,000 20.69% ✤ 92% of all commutes are < 35 miles
miles
18 181,800,000 674,400,000 16.83%
✤ Of that 92%, average is 11.37 miles
16-20 10% 1.42 10.1 205
miles ✤ 1,400,000 for 11.37 miles is
23 161,000,000 835,400,000 14.90%
21-25
miles
7% 1.19 7.0 146 - 3,980,789 kWh for about 1.5 hours
26-30 5% 1.10 5.1 96 28 142,800,000 978,200,000 13.22% ✦ new utility sales of $459,781 per year
miles
31-35 3% 0.80 3.1 60 33 102,300,000 1,080,500,000 9.47%
✦ Cumulative
miles
> 35 8% 1.34 7.9 148
miles
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Total 100% 102.9 1,978 11.37 miles one way

7. Distribution Impact
A 6 kW EV is at least
one home and is 3+
homes in lower demand
areas.
At $600 per new
transformer, each
uncontrolled EV will
add new unexpected
load to the grid causing
disruptions to planning
and service.
* Never could find data
on number of homes per
Andrew Tang, Sr Director, Smart Energy Web
Pacific Gas and Electric Company at transformer. Trust me?
The Networked Grid, 11/04/2009
(It’s 3 - 5 with a spare.)
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8. Andrew Tang, Sr Director, Smart Energy Web
Pacific Gas and Electric Company at
The Networked Grid, 11/04/2009
JRB: This is Smart Grid
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9. Capital Deferral
For a 22.74 mile total commute only EV with V2G (charged with coal):
• $7,441 on fuel savings, $3,488 on generation, $682 on distribution, $3,112 on arbitrage, $247 in CO2
• Total of $14,971 saved by the presence of V2G while using on 22% of a 100 mile battery
• So who should own the battery if it can be used for the common good?
•Maybe rate base the 100 mile, 25 kWh, 6kW, $6,250 battery? 9

10. Renewables Integration
✤ US sells 10M vehicles per
year, so at 25% EV
✤ Average commute is 11.37
miles and would use 7,106
MWh / year
✤ 123,603 MWh of Wind and
✤
Solar in 2008
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table1_1.html
✤ EVs would use 29% of 2020
wind over 3 hours of
charging at night
✤ IF at 100% EV, all wind and
solar renewables have no
impact on the grid
✤ with 100% Passenger Sales
at Electric Vehicles = 20%
wind generation 10

11. John R Bryan
Conclusions
Project Director, Rocky Mountain Secure Smart Grid Initiative
President, Secure Smart Grid Association
john@securesmartgrid.net
303-997-2824
✤ EVs are coming
✤ Price of Batteries is still dropping
✤ 400 mile battery pack in sight
✤ Uncontrolled Charging is BAD
✤ Increased peaking generation
✤ Increased cost and outages
✤ Controlled Charging is GOOD
How can our transportation system contribute to ✤ Decreased capital costs could lead to
meeting energy standards and emission reduction
goals? lower $/kWh - higher utilization of
Go full electric drive for commuting.
fixed assets
How soon will we have an electric vehicle system in
✤ EVs only need to charge an average
place?
It’s there now. We only need utility
systems to control the charging (deploy a
of 2.8 hours overnight and can be
smart grid). used to “store wind”
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