SicuroIMS report detailing the security environment across Pakistan in April 2014.

1. PAKISTAN
T H R E A T A S S E S S M E N T APRIL 2014
The attack on Hamid Mir on April 19 highlighted the issue of journalist safety in Pakistan

2. SECURITY SITUATION
OVERVIEW
PAKISTAN
• In April, the security situation in Pakistan deteriorated due to the increase in the
number of incidents in Balochistan and the TTP’s decision not to extend the
ceasefire past April 10. The overall number of incidents increased by 19%, while the
number of casualties saw an almost 50% increase. The number of pro-government
security operation in April reduced, but the number of casualties saw a significant
increase.
• On April 16, the TTP spokesman Shahidullah Shahid announced the group’s decision
not to extend the ceasefire that expired on April 10, because the government
ignored the TTP’s demands. However, the group remained committed to the peace
talks. This increases the likelihood of the Taliban attacks, as the ceasefire is officially
over. Any major attacks are unlikely, while the Taliban is still interested in the peace
talks. A major attack will result in a strong military response and subsequent
breakdown of the talks.
• The end of the ceasefire increases the likelihood of attack on the government
targets. The TTP spokesman suggested that while there will be no attacks on the
public places, the group considers government sites to be fair targets. This,
however, does not mean that public places should be considered safe, as the TTP
splinter groups interested in the breakdown of the talks would attempt to interfere
with any peace plans by attacking civilians. Baloch-associated groups, such as UBA,
also consider civilians to be fair targets.
• The most impactful incident in April was registered in Islamabad on April 9, when 24
people were killed by a blast at a fruit market. The United Baloch Army (UBA) took
responsibility for this attack and the April 8 attack at Sibi railway station that killed
17 people. The UBA, one of the Baloch separatist groups, claimed that the attack
was carried out in response to the governments’ actions in Balochistan. The
Pakistani government rejected the claim of UBA’s involvement in the attacks.
However, no other group has claimed responsibility.
• The security situation in Karachi does not show any signs of improvement, despite of
the ongoing targeted operation. Sindh Chief Minister directed the police to intensity
the operation following the attack on a Geo TV journalist, Hamid Mir.
• The attack on Hamid Mir once again highlighted that Pakistan is a dangerous place
for journalists. In addition to that, it empathized the complex relationship between
the media, the military and the government in Pakistan, as Hamid Mir blamed the ISI
for the attack.
PAKISTANHEATMAPKARACHHEATMAP

3. The security situation in Karachi does not show any signs of improvement despite of the
ongoing targeted operation. In the end of April, Sindh Chief Minister Syed Qaim Ali Shah
directed the police to intensify the targeted operation, accepting that a lot more needs to be
done to see any improvements in the city.
In 2013, 80% of murders in Karachi could be classified as targeted killings. In 2014, this trend
continues. On a daily basis, armed men on motorcycles open fire at their victims, before
escaping. The vast majority of targeted killings remain unsolved. Most victims tend to be
members of a religious group and/or have some affiliation with a political party. While the
criminal landscape of Karachi is very complex, with the Taliban, Lyari gangs and other groups
involved in violence in the city, the militant wings of political parties are responsible for the
majority of targeted killings. This makes the targeted operation extremely complex and
unlikely to succeed, as those responsible for political decision making are often indirectly
involved in tit-for-tat targeted killings.
In April, Karachi saw a number of targeted killings that involved political workers (i.e. Apr 5 –
ASWJ worker shot dead in Malir, Apr 10 – lawyer and Karachi VP for PML-N shot dead, Apr 14
– 3 people affiliated with ASWJ and PST shot dead), religiously motivated attacks (i.e. Apr 25 –
4 killed by IED targeting a mosque in Delhi colony; Apr 28 – 3 children killed in a hand grenade
attack targeting a seminary in SITE) and attacks against policemen (i.e. Apr 7 – militants
attacked police post in Sohrab Goth, injuring Deputy Superintendent, Apr 24 – suicide attack
killed a senior police offices and several others in Old Sabzi Mandi area).
The most impactful targeted attack was registered on April 19, when unknown gunmen
opened fire at Hamid Mir, a prominent television presenter for Geo TV and strong critic of
Pakistan’s military. While nobody took responsibility for the attack, Hamid Mir suggested that
the ISI were behind the incident, as he has previously received threats from the intelligence
agency. The investigation is ongoing, but few expect it to be successful.
The kidnapping of two local UNICEF employees on Arp 17 also attracted a lot of attention. The
victims were reportedly kidnapped when returning from a picnic on the outskirts of the city.
They have been recovered following a joint venture by Citizens Police Liaison Committee and
Anti-Violent Crime Cell. The victims are belied to be safe and well, but their kidnappers
managed to escape. There are no confirmed reports stating the exact reason for their
kidnapping, but it is suspected that they were kidnapped for ransom.
SECURITY SITUATION
KARACHI
KARACHI
1
2 3
4
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
A
B C
D
E
F
5 6
7
Karachi South
1. Lyari Town
2. Saddar Town
3. Jamshed Town
Karachi Central
8. Liaquatabad
Town
9. North
Nazimabad Town
10. Gulberg Town
11. New Karachi
Town
Karachi East
4. Gulshan Town
5. Korangi Town
6. Landhi Town
7. Shah Fiscal Town
Karachi West
12. Kemari Town
13. SITE Town
14. Baldia Town
15. Orangi Town
Malir
16. Malir Town
17. Bin Qasim
Town
18. Gadap Town
Cantonments
A. Karachi Cantonment
B. Clifton Cantonment
C. Korangi Creek
Cantonment
D. Faisal Cantonment
E. Malir Cantonment
F. Manora Cantonment
2 UNICEF employees
were kidnapped on Apr
17. They have been
recovered on Apr 21
26 pound IED was
defused by BDS in
PECHS area of Karachi
on Apr 9
Hamid Mir was
attacked and injured
by unidentified
gunmen on Apr 19
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi
(LeJ) commander
killed by Rangers in
Lyari on Apr 26
3 children killed by a
hand grenade
targeting a seminary
in SITE on Apr 28
3 separate grenade
attacks injured 4
people in Karachi on
Apr 8
3 people affiliated
with ASWJ and PST
were shot dead on
Apr 14
4 killed by IED
targeting a mosque in
Delhi colony on Apr
25
High crime areas of Karachi (2013)
Senior police inspector
& 2 others killed, 15
injured by IED on Apr
24
Lawyer & PML-N VP
in Karachi was shot
dead by unknown
gunmen on Apr 10
PAKISTAN

4. SECURITY SITUATION
LAHORE, RAWALPINDI AND OTHER
LAHORE:
• The majority of incidents registered in Lahore in April were related to domestic issues
or petty crime, with the notable exception of a blast targeting Ichra area of the city,
which left 12 people injured. The explosion was conducted by extortionists, who
threatened one of the shops in the area.
• The majority of casualties were caused by clashed between criminals and police (Apr 2
– police shot dead a thief, Apr 28 – police killed 2 accused, etc.).
PAKISTAN
Pakistani army
conducted air strike,
killing 15 militants in
Khyber on Apr 24
At least 12 people
were injured by
explosion in Ichhra
on Apr 11
Several deaths
attributed to swine flu
were registered in
Lahore in April
20 killed, 70 wounded
by a bomb targeting a
market in Islamabad on
Apr 9 – UBA responsible
4 killed, 33 injured by
explosion targeting
police in Charsadda on
Apr 22
9 people killed in 2
separate attacks in
Peshawar on Apr 22
17 killed, 50 wounded
by a bomb on Jaffar
Express near Sibi on Apr
8 – UBA responsible
100 villages kidnapped
from Khyber area in a
suspected Taliban
attack on Apr 12
Countrywide protests
followed the attack on
Hamid Mir in Karachi
At least 5 killed in a
shooting incident in a
hotel in Kot Khadak
area on Apr 9
Six high-profile Lashkar-
e-Jhangvi terrorists
arrested in Lahore on
Apr 19
xx At least 42 people were
injured by gas balloons
exploding in Lahore on
Apr 20
A lawyer and his
nephew shot dead
outside district court
in Pindi on Apr 11
OTHER:
• In April, the highest number of incidents was took place in Balochistan, closely followed
by Sindh and KP.
• The TTP accused the government of violating the ceasefire and ignoring the group’s
demands. The TTP announced their decision not to extend the ceasefire past Apr 10. As
a result, the military are slowly restarting their operations (i.e. Apr 24 the military
airstrikes killed at least 35 TTP insurgents in Khyber agency). Any major operations are
unlikely while the peace talks are still on the agenda. There are also reports of foreign
militants based in and around North Waziristan preparing to leave Pakistan for
Afghanistan or Syria, as they fear the government offensive that would follow if the
peace talks were to break down.
• Balochistan violence intensified, with at least 50 people killed in April. The most
impactful incident took place near Sibi train station, with 17 people killed and 50
wounded.
• The LoC tensions are back on the agenda, as both India and Pakistan accused one
another of several incidents of unprovoked firing.
RAWALPINDI/ISLAMABAD:
• On April 9, an IED went off at a vegetable market in Islamabad, killing 24 people and
injuring 116 others. The UBA has claimed responsibility for the attack, claiming that it
was carried out in retaliation to a military operation in Kalat district, Balochistan on
April 7. The TTP condemned the attack. Pakistan’s security agencies suspect that the
UBA had nothing to do with the attack and some suggest that the attack was ordered
by high-ranking members of the TTP to ‘convince’ the government to fulfill their
demands. Either scenario is concerning. If the attack was carried out by the UBA, it
demonstrated that Baloch separatist groups are highly capable of carrying out major
attacks outside of Balochistan. If the attack was indeed ordered by the TTP, it shows
that the group was willing to manipulate the government with violence even during the
ceasefire.
• Rawalpindi was put on high alert following the incident in Islamabad.

5. SECURITY SITUATION
TRENDS & GRAPHS
PAKISTAN
• The security situation in Pakistan deteriorated due to the end of the
ceasefire between the government and the TTP and the increase in
the number of incidents in Balochistan. The level of activity is now
close to the one seen in February, with the exception Waziristan.
The number of incidents North and South Waziristan saw a slight
increase following the decision not to extend the ceasefire, but it
still remains lower than usual
• The number of incidents and pro-government security operations
increased after the TTP announced their decision not to extend the
ceasefire
• Targeted killings accounted for the majority of incidents in Pakistan.
As expected, the majority of targeted killings were registered in
Karachi, where the security situation remains poor
HEAT MAPS INCIDENT TYPE
FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL
INCIDENT FREQUENCY
MARCH - APRIL
COMMENTS

6. SECURITY SITUATION
TRAVEL ADVISORY
PAKISTAN
It is advised not to travel to some areas of Pakistan. Security situation is unpredictable and there is a high threat from terrorism, kidnap and sectarian violence
throughout the country.
Many attacks over the last year have focused on Pakistani Government targets, places of worship and religious sites.
Karachi continues to experience high levels of political and sectarian violence. A Rangers-lead security operation is currently taking place in various areas of the
city.
Violent crime is a problem, particularly in Karachi. Armed robbery, shootings and armed carjackings often occur in major cities.
Petty crime is common. Ensure that your personal belongings, passports and other travel documents are secure at all times.
Avoid large gatherings that may turn violent.
The situation in North Waziristan remains unpredictable.
Travellers are charged a cash-only departure fee.
Ensure you have the correct visa for travel and work in Pakistan. Carry copies of your passport and visa at all times.
Heightened security measures are currently in place throughout the country. Checkpoints may be set up without warning.

7. POLITICAL SITUATION PAKISTAN
Hamid Mir, a famous Pakistani news anchors and investigative journalist associated with the Geo TV network, was attacked by a group of men on motorcycles in
Karachi on April 19. He was on his way to the Geo TV offices, when four gunmen on motorcycles shot him six times in a typical for Karachi incident scenario. The
victim was shifted to the hospital and his is believed to be out of danger. The attack on Hamid Mir caused widespread protests across the country. This was not
the first attack on the journalist. In 2012, the Taliban attempted to assassinate him by planting a car bomb, which failed to go off.
This incident once again highlighted that Pakistan is a dangerous country for journalists. In 2013, five journalists lost their lives; in 2014, one journalist and three
media workers were killed. Journalists are often threatened by the Taliban and the ISI, Pakistan’s main intelligence agency known for trying to ‘control’ the
media.
Both the Taliban and the ISI denied responsibility for carrying out the attack. However, Geo TV, Pakistan’s largest private news channel and Hamid Mir’s
employer, directly accused the ISI of attempting to murder the journalist, claiming that he was being threatened by the intelligence agency shortly before the
incident. Hamid Mir is known for exploring controversial topics. He has recently generated a lot of publicity by covering the cases of “forced disappearances” in
Balochistan and Pervez Musharraf’s treason trial. Both of these topics are extremely sensitive in the eyes of the military and the intelligence services. The ISI are
known for brining in journalists for questioning that sometimes involves beatings and torture. They are also suspected of occasionally murdering journalist.
Considering the ISI methods and potential motives, it is plausible that the attack on Hamid Mir was ordered by the ISI.
The reaction to the attack highlighted the complex relationship between the private media, the military and the government. Following the Geo TV’s accusations
against the ISI, the defence department filed a complain against the channel seeking the suspension of its licence and accusing it of conducting "a vicious
campaign, libellous and scandalous in nature... against a state institution tasked to work for the defence, sovereignty and integrity of Pakistan“. While the
complaint is being considered, the Jang Group (incl. Geo TV) owner, claimed that the ISI has long been seeking for a reason to shut down Geo and promote the
ISI sponsored TV station, Bol. The Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharis, has publically condemned the attack on Hamid Mir. However, shortly after the Geo TV accused
the ISI of ordering the attack, Nawaz Sharif sided with the agency by publically praising the ISI for "ensuring protection and defence of the country“.
The attack on Hamid Mir highlighted that Pakistan is a dangerous place to be a journalist. If the ISI were in fact behind the attack, it means that the military and
the government share ”the odds justify the means” mentality, when it comes keeping uncomfortable issues buried. Following the attack, Hamid Mir once again
blamed the ISI and the ISI Chief for ordering the attack and stated that “some elements of ISI harbor extreme hostility against me for my opinion, views and
stance on Pervez Musharraf and issues of Balochistan.” This shows that there are journalists in Pakistan willing to rise difficult questions, but the future of the
private media in Pakistan is unclear. The military are seeking the closure of the Geo TV network and it remains to be seen if the government sides with them
once again.
ATTACK ON HAMID MIR HIGHLIGHTED THE COMPLEX RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE MEDIA, THE MILITARY AND THE GOVERNMENT

8. SOCIAL MEDIA PAKISTAN
On the Hamid Mir attack…
On the United Baloch Army…
On the explosion in Islamabad…
VIDEO: Aftermath of the explosion in Islamabad
http://vimeo.com/91487893#at=0

9. SOCIAL MEDIA PAKISTAN
#TWITTER TRENDS IN PAKISTAN
#BanGeo
#AfghanElections
#FakeDemocracy
The #BanGeo campaign restarted after Geo TV aired accusations that
the ISI were behind the attack on Hamid Mir. Geo TV came under
criticism for these remarks from rival TV channels.
Surprisingly, the Afghan elections received very limited attention on
twitter, with the #AfghanElections trend occupying one of the top-20
positions for two days only. In comparison, cricket matches attracted a
lot more attention.
Those, who decided to comment on the Afghan elections were
dissatisfied with the negative attitude towards Pakistan during the
campaign.
#FakeDemocracy was first mentioned in December 2013, when
Muhammad Tahir-ul-Qadri used it to describe the lack of accountability
in politics. It regained popularity in mid-April, following the allegations
that the ISI were behind the attack on Hamid Mir. The hashtag remained
popular until the end of April.

10. PAKISTAN
APRIL 2014T H R E A T A S S E S S M E N T
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