Weichert, Princeton January Market Recap & Forecast

Princeton Area
Real Estate Market Update
January 2018
Josh Wilton
Managing Broker
Weichert Realtors
Princeton Office

Agenda
Review of the New Tax Law
The Market, State, County and Local
Process and Strategies for Buyers and Sellers
Real Estate Market Update
Agenda

Dec 22, 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
(TCJA) into law.
A Realtors Guide to U.S.
Tax Reform

Your should continue to get tax
advice from their accountant or
financial advisor, who can explain
the entire new tax code and how it
will impact their tax return and real
estate position.
A Realtors Guide to U.S.
Tax Reform

1. Changing the requirements for
the exclusion of gain on the sale
of a principal residence.
2. Reduction of the limit of the
Mortgage Interest Deduction
(MID).
3. Elimination of the State and Local
Tax deduction (SALT), which
includes property taxes.
Three Major Proposed
Changes

Exclusion of Gain on Sale
of Primary Residence
Although the House and Senate
were aligned throughout the tax
reform process, in the approved
bill, there are no modifications to
the rules under Internal Revenue
Code Section 121 governing how
the calculation of the gain on the
sale of a primary residence is
calculated.

As such, the current rules would
remain in effect, whereby an individual
must live in and own the property for
two out of the previous five years prior
to sale in order to qualify for the full
exclusion of the capital gain
($250,000/single; $500,000/married).
Exclusion of Gain on Sale
of Primary Residence

Original Proposal:
The elimination of the state and local tax deduction
(which includes property taxes).
The New Tax Code:
Allows an itemized deduction of up to $10,000 for
the total of state and local property taxes and
income or sales taxes.
Impact on the Market:
Most experts agree that higher taxed regions will
be impacted as those homeowners now have a
cap on their deductions.
State and Local Taxes
(SALT)

The deduction limit for mortgage
interest was reduced to $750,000
going forward. Mortgages taken
prior to Dec. 15, 2017, can still
claim mortgage interest
deductions on up to $1 million in
debt.
It is worth noting that the law will
revert back to a limit of $1 million
for all mortgages beginning in tax
Notes About Mortgage
Interest Deduction (MID)

As mentioned previously, state and
local property, sales and income
taxes are subject to a combined
cap of $10,000 for single or married
filers.
This means that individuals living in
high-tax states like California, New
Jersey and New York could see a
significant reduction to their
itemized deductions.
Likewise, individuals living in low-
or no-tax states like Texas or
Florida may see little or no impact
Notes About State and
Local Taxes (SALT)

•The new tax brackets are 10%, 12%,
22%, 24%, 32%, 35% and 37%.
•The highest tax rate was reduced
from 39.6% to 37%.
•For U.S. expats, outbounds tax
equalized to the U.S. will require a
recalculation of their hypothetical tax.
• Inbounds and permanent
relocations into the U.S. will
generally experience an overall
reduction in U.S. tax cost based on
the lower tax brackets.
• Individual circumstances need to
be considered.
Overall Reduction in
Individual Income Tax Rate

• IRS Publication 121, Exclusion of
Gain from Sale of Principal
Residence
• Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Bill Released
Dec. 15, 2017
• Government Affairs Update,
12/18/17: Tax Reform Set for
Enactment, Worldwide ERC
Sources

Economic factors
2010 to Current Comparisons
Now 2013 2010
Gas per gallon (NY area) $2.45 $3.81 $2.73
Stock market (Dow Jones) 25754.30 14,776 11,578
Avg. 30-year fixed rate 4.1%* 4.43% 4.71%
Consumer confidence rating 122.1 76.2 63.4
Household income $59,039** $53,046 $49,276
Unemployment rate 4.1% 7.4% 9.3%
Foreclosures 848,609 1,369 ,405 2,871,891

Market Update
Source: NAR Economic & Housing Outlook November 3, 2017; Lawrence Yun

Real estate experts and economists agree sellers will continue to hold the cards
 With inventory at historically low levels and demand for housing
skyrocketing in most markets, economic analysts and real estate experts
believe 2018 will be the Year of the Seller.
 Analysts forecasted yet another year in which a scarcity of homes for
sale will allow sellers to keep prices high, especially as a
growing segment of 1st
time millennial buyers take the homeownership
plunge.
 The inventory drought will continue to be enough of a factor to keep
supplies below normal. Most markets will continue to be sellers’ markets,
especially for entry-level homes, hotter markets and
markets where prices are high and new construction is costly
Will 2018 be a Buyer’s Market or a Seller’s Market
Market Update
Source: Inman.com 12/26/17

Listing Inventory
• Was a BIG deal in 2016
• BIGGER deal in 2017
• Even BIGGER Deal in 2018
• Existing inventory levels down 11% over a year
(nationally)

First-Time Homebuyers make up
Majority of 2017 (2018) Home buyers*
• 52% First Time Homebuyers
• 61% Millennial Buyers (35
years and under)

The boom….The New Jersey MarketThe Statewide Picture

The Local Markets
Real Estate is Local
It’s Local to the County
It’s Local to the Town
It’s Local to the Price Point
It’s Local to the Neighborhood/Development
It’s Local to the Street
Real Estate is Local

Online Estimates
If the estimate is accurate within 5% you’re
talking about a
$50,000 spread on a $500,000 estimate
The home value could be anywhere from
$475,000 - $525,000
And they’re only that close
a third of the time

The boom….The Local MarketThe Local Picture

Long Term Demand …
Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast
http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/pub/factbook/merfct.pdf
Long Term Demand for Housing

http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/content/njsdc/2013WU%20PopLFProj2030.pdf

Mercer/ Middlesex County
Real Estate Market Drivers
1. Trains/Schools/Affordability
2. Schools/Trains/Affordability
3. Convenience/Town Center/Lifestyle
4. Affordability
5. Schools
6. Trains

Plainsboro
Real Estate Market Drivers
1. Trains/Schools/Affordability
2. Schools/Trains/Affordability
3. Convenience/Town Center/Lifestyle
4. Affordability
5. Schools
6. Trains

Source: NJAR 10K Research Data
Plainsboro, Year over Year

Plainsboro Market Activity
Single Family Homes
Average Sale Price
Source: Middlesex MLS

Single Family Homes
Average Days on Market

Condos & Townhouses
Average Sale Price

Condos & Townhouses

Walker Gordon Farm
Average Sale Price

Walker Gordon Farm

Princeton Landing Condo/Townhouse
Average Sale Price

Princeton Landing Single Family Average Sales Price

West Windsor
Train
Schools
Lifestyle
Affordability

Source: NJAR 10K Research
WW, Year over Year

West Windsor Market Activity
Single Family Homes
Average Sale Price
Source: Trend MLS

Single Family Homes
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Trend MLS

Single Family Homes
List to Sale Price Ratio
Source: Trend MLS

Condos & Townhouses
Average Sale Price
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Trend MLS

Condos & Townhouses
Source: Trend MLS
2012 2013 2014 2015 20172015

Condos & Townhouses
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Trend MLS

Condo/ Townhouse– Canal Pointe
Average Sale Price
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Trend MLS

Days on Market
201
2
201
3
201
4
2015 2016 2017
Source: Trend MLS

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Trend MLS

Canal Pointe – Single Family
Average Sale Price
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Trend MLS

Source: Trend MLS

Single Family – Estates @ Princeton Jct
Average Sale Price
Source: Trend MLS

Source: Trend MLS

Single Family – 0-$650,000
Average Sales Price
Source: Trend MLS

East Windsor
Train
Schools
Lifestyle
Affordability

Source: NJAR 10K Research DataSource: NJAR 10K Research
EW, Year over Year

East Windsor
SF Average Sale Price
Source: Trend MLS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

East Windsor SF
Source: Trend MLS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

East Windsor CT
Average Sales Price
Source: Trend MLS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

East Windsor CT
Source: Trend MLS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

East Windsor CT
Single Family 0-$399,999 Average Sales Price
Source: Trend MLS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

East Windsor CT
0-$399 Average Days on Market
Source: Trend MLS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

East Windsor CT
0-$399 List to Sales Price Ratio
Source: Trend MLS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

East Windsor CT
$400-$699 Avg Sales Price
Source: Trend MLS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

East Windsor CT
$400-$699 Days on Market
Source: Trend MLS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

East Windsor CT
$400-$699 List to Sales Price Ratio
Source: Trend MLS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Lawrenceville
Train
Schools
Lifestyle
Affordability

Source: https://education.state.nj.us/pr/

Law, Year over Year

LawrencevilleMarket Activity
SingleFamily Homes
AverageSalePrice
2012 2013 2015
Source: TrendMLS
2014 2016 2017

SingleFamily Homes
AverageDayson Market
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 20152014 2016 2017

SingleFamily Homes
List to SalePriceRatio
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 20152014 2016 2017

Condos& Townhouses
AverageSalePrice
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 20152014 2016 2017

Condos& Townhouses
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 20152014 2016 2017

SingleFamily $500,000+
AverageSalePrice
Source: TrendMLS

Dayson Market
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 20152014 2016 2017

Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 20152014 2016 2017

Adult Communities
AverageSalePrice
Source: TrendMLS

Adult Communities
AverageDOM
Source: TrendMLS

Adult Communities
Source: TrendMLS

Yorkshire
AverageSalesPrice
Source: TrendMLS

Yorkshire
AverageDOM
Source: TrendMLS

EaglesChase
AverageSalesPrice
Source: TrendMLS

EaglesChase
AverageDOM
Source: TrendMLS

EaglesChase
Source: TrendMLS

Princeton
Train
Schools
Lifestyle
Affordability

Pton, Year over Year

Princeton Market Activity
Single Family Average Sale Price
Source: TrendMLS

Single Family Average Days on Market
Source: TrendMLS

Single Family List to Sale Price Ratio
Source: TrendMLS

Princeton Condo/ Townhouse
Average Sales Price
Source: TrendMLS

Princeton Condo/ Townhouses
Source: TrendMLS

Princeton Condo/Townhouse
Source: TrendMLS

Princeton Single Family
Under $1 million Average Sales Price
Source: TrendMLS

Princeton Single Family Homes
Under $1 million Average Days on Market
Source: TrendMLS

Under $1 million List to Sales Price Ratio
Source: TrendMLS

Littlebrook Neighborhood
Average Sold Price
Source: TrendMLS

Littlebrook Neighborhood
Source: TrendMLS

Riverside Neighborhood
Average Sales Price
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: TrendMLS

Witherspoon-Jackson Historic District
Average Sales Price
Source: TrendMLS

Washington Oaks
Condo Townhouse
List to Sales Price Ratio
Source: TrendMLS

Ewing
Train
Schools
Lifestyle
Affordability

https://www.niche.com/k12/d/ewing-township-public-schools-nj/#report-card
Source: NJAR 10K Research

Ewing, Year over Year

Ewing Market Activity
SingleFamily Homes
AverageSalePrice
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SingleFamily Homes
Source: TrendMLS

Condos& Townhouses
AverageSalePrice
Source: TrendMLS

Condos& Townhouses
Source: TrendMLS

Hamilton
Train
Schools
Lifestyle
Affordability

Hamilton, Year over Year

Hamilton Market Activity
SingleFamily Homes
AverageSalePrice
Source: TrendMLS

SingleFamily Homes
Source: TrendMLS

SingleFamily Homes
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 20152014 2016 2017

Condos& Townhouses
AverageSalePrice
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 2015 201720162014

Condos& Townhouses
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

https://www.niche.com/k12/d/hopewell-valley-regional-school-district-nj/
Hopewell

Hopewell, Year over Year, Jan – May

Hopewell Twp
Single Family Average Sale Price
Source: Trend MLS
2012 2013 2014 20162015 2017

Hopewell Twp
Single Family
Source: Trend MLS
2012 2013 2014 20162015 2017

Hopewell Twp
Condo/Townhouse
Average Sale Price
Source: Trend MLS
2012 2013 2014 20162015 2017

Hopewell Twp.
Condo/Townhouse
Source: Trend MLS
2012 2013 2014 20162015 2017

Hopewell Twp
Condo/Townhouse
Source: Trend MLS
2012 2013 2014 20162015 2017

Hopewell Twp
Brandon Farms All Styles
Average Sale Price
Source: Trend MLS
2012 2013 2014 20162015 2017

Hopewell Twp
Source: Trend MLS
2012 2013 2014 20162015 2017

Montgomery Twp, NJ
Real Estate Trends

Montgomery Woods
Average Sales Price
Source: Garden State MLS

Montgomery Woods
Days on Market

Montgomery Woods Market Activity

Montgomery Hills Market Activity
Average Sale Price

Princeton Village Market Activity
Average Sale Price

Average Days On Market

Montgomery Twp Market Activity
Cherry Valley
Average Sales Price

Cherry Valley

Prepared by:
Joshua D Wilton
Broker/Sales Associate
North Brunswick
Real Estate Trends
2012-2017

Prepared by:
Joshua D Wilton
Broker/Sales Associate

North Brunswick Market Activity
Single Family Homes
Average Sale Price
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017

Single Family Homes
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017

CT Average Sales Price
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017

Condos & Townhouses
Days on Market
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017

Strategies for
Buying and Selling
in Today’s Market

When’s the best time to Buy/Sell?
Source: Trend MLS

Princeton
All Styles
Style Active Listings
Under Contract in
30 Days
Absorption Rate
0-700 9 3 3
701-999 10 5 2
1000-1499 15 1 15
1499-1999 14 1 14

Lawrence
All Styles
Under Contract in
30 Days
Absorption Rate
0-500 83 12 6.9
Single Family
500-700 13 1 13
Single Family
700-999 4 0 99
Single Family
$1.0+ 8 0 99

$1-1.5 million Average Sales Price
Open House Traffic
Source: TrendMLS

West Windsor SF Market Activity
Pending in
last 30 Days
Absorption
Rate
SF
0-650 13 6 2.1
SF
650-799 5 3 1.6
SF
800-999 3 0 99
$1.0+ 2 0 99

Hopewell SF Market Activity
Pending in last 30
Days
Absorption Rate
SF
0-650 41 4 10.2
SF
650-799 14 1 14
SF
800-999 17 0 99
$1.0+ 15 0 99

Financial Services
Carlos A. Machado
Gold Services Manager
Princeton Office
NMLS #4384
Weichert Financial Services
908-307-8317
cmachado@weichertfinancial.com

•For Sellers: To make sure they have all the
information they need to choose an offer
•For Buyers: Buying Strategy, Buying Power &
Documentation
My Job…

As the seller, do I get to
see the pre-approval
letter?
• The Pre-approval letter must be with all the offers.
• Cash deals should be accompanied with a "proof of funds" which is a bank
statement or letter from the bank or escrow agent
• Make sure the letter is not a pre-qualification (this is only an opinion letter)
• Let me help you review and confirm the pre-approvals you have when you go to
select an offer

2018
Top Buyer Negotiating Strategies…
1.Get out now, before the Spring springs, Pay Now or Pay
More Later (based on core market, schools, trains and towns)
2.Don’t Wait to Offer on an ‘Over-Priced’ Home, its fun to
negotiate 1:1
3.Use an Escalation Clause in High-Demand Markets & in
multiple bid situations
4. ‘Thin Slice’ the Market. Get hyper local (ab rate,
inventory, pricing etc)

Buyer Negotiation Tips in a Fast Market
1. Understand the process before you start shopping.
2. Have mortgage pre-approval from a local, respected,
reliable lender
3. Put a significant amount in escrow if possible
4. Be as flexible as possible with your closing date
5. Remove as many contingencies as possible (inspection,
appraisel, etc)
6. Use an Escalation Clause

Weichert Financial
Carlos Alberto Machado
Gold Service Manager
cmachado@weichertfinancial.com
908-307-8317
Princeton Office
NMLS#4384

2018
Top Seller Strategies…
1.Stage it (Pretty it Up)
2.Fix it First (Pre Inspect)
3.Price it Right (Set the Market)
4.Stay in Control

All Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation
and control.
Home Pricing
Who is in control?

The process of preparing homes for sale
regardless of price, location, or condition
to achieve the maximum sales price in the
minimum marketing time.
The goal is to appeal to the broadest range of
BUYERS.
What is Home Staging?

“Wow…. I could live here!”

Buyers Only Know What They See …

… Not The Way It Is Going To Be.

Home Staging
*Based on a StagedHomes.com survey of over 400 homes across Canada & the Continental US prepared for sale by an Accredited Staging Professional (ASP™) from June 2007 through November 2007.
The average increase in sales price of an ASP
Staged vs. non-Staged home is
6.9%
That is an additional $31,050 on a
$450,000 sale
“The investment in home staging is always less than your first
price reduction!”

22 Dogwood Princeton
Non Staged Suggested
Price: $1.009m
Staged Suggested Price:
$1.323
Staged ($20k)
Sold: $1.326/ 12 days

and control.
Home Staging
Who is in control?

Fall Thru Analysis
Reason for Fall Thru Total # Fall Thrus % of Total Fall Thrus
Home Inspection 659 39.2%
Buyer Financing 416 24.8%
Buyer Changed Mind 185 11.0%
Attorney Review 72 4.3%
Appraisal 71 4.2%
Contingency of buyer/seller house purchase 44 2.6%
Short Sale Declined 39 2.3%
Another offer (buyer) came in 30 1.8%
Seller Changed Mind 23 1.4%
HOA Docs or Board not approved 21 1.3%
Buyer/Seller Passed Away or illness 14 0.8%
Foreclosure or Bankruptcy 14 0.8%
Title Issues 13 0.8%
Deal Came Back together & Closed or Set to Close 11 0.7%
Other 36 2.1%
Unknown 31 1.8%
Total 1679* 100%

The Impact of Inspection & Repairs
on the Salability of Your Home..…
A Certified Home Inspector’s report will review:
Condition of the home's HVAC, Plumbing and Electrical Systems
The roof, attic, and visible insulation
Walls, ceilings, floors, windows and doors
The foundation, basement, and visible structure
It will also advise if any potential environmental hazards were observed

• Why do a Pre-Inspection?
• Fix/ Disclose/ Permit EVERYTHING before going on market
• Removes buyer objections/ fears
• Reduce the risk of going ‘off market’ for a buyer who ends
up killing the deal
• You stay in control
Pre-Inspection

and control.
Pre - Inspection
Who is in control?

• Promotes a sense of urgency among buyers &
agents (fear of loss)
• Generates interest and showings
• Sets the stage for multiple offers in the first 30 days
• Offers tend to be higher in relation to list price
• Results in highest price in shortest time
Effects of “Right” Pricing

• Buyer excitement diminishes quickly
• Extends time house is on the market
• Results in price reductions
• May attract “bargain hunters” and discounted offers
• Results in a lower selling price
Effects of Over Pricing:

Negotiations are about leverage, use the listing
price as yours…
PTA suggested Market Value of
$840,000
Ab Rate of 12.5 months
Listed at $799,500
1 day on the market
4 Offers
Bidding wrapping up today
The seller had control
West Windsor

price as yours…
5 Lost Trail: listed by another Broker on
7/31/16 for $695,000. Decrease price
on 9/24/16 to $650,000. Listing with
Broker expired on 2/28/2017 after
being on the market for 216 days.
Wct listed their property on 4/7/2017 at
$680,000. Used Professional
photography & 3D Matterport,
recommended contractor work to be
done, used professional staging,
Property went to pending on 4-22-
17------closed on 5-19-17 at $10,000
over listed price $690,000 after
receiving multiple offers.
Lawrence

Princeton
36 Mercer St.
The Price Trend Analysis suggested Market Value of $1.250
We recommended listing at $1.1 million

Princeton
36 Mercer St.
• Pre-inspection
• Staged
• Right Pricing
Sold for $1.350 million, cash in 7 days. No contingencies.

Hamilton
1715 Silver Ct.
Hamilton N J 08690
2 Bedroom 1.5 Baths
Presented at $115,000
Listed 6/5/17---
1 open house 6/10/17 received multiple offers starting
6/11/17 at full asking and then at over asking contract
signed on 6/14/17---Closing date of 7/17/17

Hamilton
Two other units on the
market for sale in the
same community-1 at
$122,000 was on
originally at $129,000
so far for 166 days.
(listing broker placed this one
photo on the Internet)

Hamilton
---the other at
$112,900 so far on for
66 days
(listing broker placed
one photo on the MLS)

price as yours…
Listed at $544,900
Reduced to $535,000
Reduced to $509,000
Reduced to $499,000
96 Days on Market
1 Offer
Sold for $490,000
The buyer had control

Weichert Family of Companies
What will a real
estate company do
for me?

Making Your Purchase as
Smooth as Possible
Buying a home involves the careful
coordination of many people.
Choosing a real estate team you can
count on will make the process smoother
and easier.

Resource and Website ListResource and Website List
www.trendmls.com
www.realtor.org
www.njar.com
www.Otteau.com
www.Pre-listing-inspection.com
www.Housemaster.com
www.Stagingshoppingcenter.com
www.realtytrac.com
www.njar.com/10k
www.keepingcurrentmatters.com
https://education.state.nj.us/pr/

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