Jacinto Estima gave a presentation on solar energy potential at the 2015 International School on Solar Energy in Brazil. He discussed how to define and measure renewable energy technical potential using GIS analysis and factors like system performance, land constraints, and environmental protections. He then explained different solar technologies like photovoltaics and concentrated solar power, and factors that determine their potential like solar irradiance levels and ability to incorporate storage. Finally, he highlighted opportunities to reduce soft costs of solar through standardized designs, training programs, and innovative financing mechanisms.

1. Putting in place the
solar potential
Jacinto Estima
GIS Developer and Coordinator
Research Center for Renewable Energy Mapping and
Assessment
Masdar Institute of Science and Technology
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
2015 International School on Solar Energy
University of Brasilia, Brazil
23 February 2015

2. • Jacinto Estima
• Portuguese
• Research Center for Renewable Energy Mapping and
Assessment at the Masdar Institute of Science and
Technology – Abu Dhabi, UAE
• Partners with IRENA for the development and
management of the Global Atlas for Renewable
Energy programme
• jestima@masdar.ac.ae

3. POTENTIAL

4. Potential
Renewable energy technical potential as defined
in the report “U.S. Renewable Energy Technical
Potentials: A GIS-Based Analysis” represents the
achievable energy generation of a particular
technology given system performance, topographic
limitations, environmental, and land-use
constraints.
Source: http://www.nrel.gov/gis/re_potential.html

5. Potential
Source: http://www.nrel.gov/gis/re_potential.html
How competitive is it?
How much can it cost?
Where can it be
harvested? How much
power?
Where is the resource?

6. PhotoVoltaics (PV)
grid-tied and off grid
• PV produces electricity
• works anywhere
• no tracking required
• electrochemical storage possible
Courtesy of RENAC

7. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
• Only for Sunbelt areas with high DNI
• Tracking is mandatory
• Hybrid operation possible (with CCP)
• Molten salt storage possible
Courtesy of RENAC

8. Three component radiation model
• Global radiation is composed of
 direct radiation (coming directly from sun, casting shadows)
 diffuse radiation (scattered, without clear direction), and,
 reflected radiation (albedo).

9. 9

10. UAE Solar Atlas Maps: Final Results

11. UAE Solar Atlas Maps: Final Results

12. • Version 1.0 launched in January 2013
• Version 2.0 launched in January 2015
• www.irena.org/globalatlas
• http://irena.masdar.ac.ae
• Global Spatial Data Infrastructure
• Enables users to visualize information on renewable
energy resources and overlay additional information
(Population, topography, etc.)
• As of January, 2015, 67 countries and more than 50
institutes and partners were contributing to the initiative

14. 1,000 datasets. 45+ national atlases.

15. Data
bankability
Investor’s
interest
PUBLIC
SECTOR
EFFORT
Local
measurements
PRIVATE
SECTOR
EFFORT
Existing local
measurements
Data quality
Zoning

16. 3TIER GHI global dataset

17. HelioClim3v4-MC GHI dataset

18. Meteotest GHI global dataset

19. INPE 10km GHI Brazil dataset

20. NASA 1 Degree DNI global dataset

21. INPE 10km DNI Brazil dataset

22. Technical potential

23. Technical constrains
• Topography (technology dependent)
• System performance (technology dependent):
 Configuration
 System losses
• modules, transmission, Inverters, etc. (PV)
• Solar field, Heat transmission, power cycle, etc. (CSP)
 How much of the radiation are actually being converted into
electricity (%)??????
• Protected areas
• Land Use and Land Cover
• Distance to infrastructures (grid network, transportation
network, water, etc.)
• Water availability

24. Protected areas

25. Land Use / Land Cover

26. Demonstration on ECOWAS within GEOSS AIP-6
Presented at the GEO-X Ministerial Summit
Geneva, Jan. 14-17th, 2014
http://irena.masdar.ac.ae/?map=507

27. Economic and Market potential

28. Costs – elements of a PV system
Hard Balance of
System Costs
 Racking, mounting
hardware
 Inverters/Trackers
 Wiring
 Monitoring equipment
 Shipping
 Land
 Modules, R&D for modules
Soft Balance of
System Costs
 Business process costs
• Financing
• Installation
• Customer acquisition
• Permitting
• Interconnection and
inspection
 System developer profit
 System design and
engineering

29. Costs – PV Highlights in 2014
• Solar PV module prices 75% lower than 2009
• Total installed costs of utility-scale PV systems
fallen by 29% to 65% (depending on region)
• Global average of LCOE of utility-scale solar PV
has fallen by half in four years

30. IRENA Costing Alliance:
Renewable Power Competing

31. The levelised cost of electricity from
utility-scale renewable technologies,
2010 and 2014
Source: IRENA Renewable Cost Database

32. PV module prices VS efficiency

33. Wind and Solar Projections
(IEA World Energy Outlook)

34. Global Growth in PV Capacity

35. Installed RE capacity by region

36. Module and BoS “Soft-Costs” Vary
• Global module & hardware prices have declined 60% to 70% in the
last two years… but “soft” balance of system prices have not:
 BoS costs in Q2 2012 were around three times higher in the United
States than in Germany by some measures.
• Elements present in countries with balanced price declines:
 Competitive markets, skilled labor force, good information.
 Well-designed policies: incentives aligned with market needs.
• Tax policies, local requirements for permitting and inspection,
installation costs, and customer acquisition costs have substantial
effects on PV system costs in residential and commercial buildings
and hence on the growth of PV markets.
• Future cost reduction in the balance of system costs – soft
costs and reduced finance costs

37. Soft Costs for Residential PV in Germany
Are ~$2.7/W Lower than in the U.S.
Total soft costs for residential PV in Germany, including margin, are just
19% of the implied soft costs for U.S. residential PV ($0.62/W vs. $3.34/W)
Source: Joachim Seel, Galen Barbose, and Ryan Wiser, “Why Are Residential PV Prices in Germany So Much Lower Than in the United States?: A Scoping
Analysis,” Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 9/2012
* Notes: US module and inverter prices are based on average factory gate
prices for Q4 2010-Q3 2011 as reported by GTM/SEIA with an adder of
10% to account for supply chain costs. Inverter efficiency is assumed to be
85%.

38. Costs for Customer Acquisition, permitting,
Installation Labor and Overhead are Key
Source: Seel, Barbose and Wiser at LBNL (Feb. 2013), “Why are Residential
PV Prices in Germany So Much Lower Than in the United States?”

39. CSP cost breakdown
Note: Total installed cost breakdown for 100 MW parabolic through and solar tower CSP plant in South Africa

40. Barriers: MAJOR COMPONENTS OF SOFT
COSTS ARE DUE TO regulatory or market
factors that are hard to address
• Profit and Overhead (rent, utilities, inventory costs, insurance,
administrative fees and general administrative costs)
• Installation Labor (lack of standard system design, scarcity of skills
or competition in labor markets, requirements to utilize more highly
skilled labor than needed, lack of easy-to-install systems)
• Customer Acquisition (development of clear and accurate product
information, marketing, advertising, system design, arrangement of
financing for which building owners qualify, sales calls, bid
preparation, site visits, and collection of payments)
• Permitting and Inspection (inconsistent national, provincial and local
regulations; labor costs of completing permits; costs of idle labor
while waiting for inspections to be conducted; costs to connect
building PV systems with utility distribution lines)

41. Potential Solutions:
Target the Most Important Soft Costs for
Policy Action and Innovative Financing
The biggest targets for reducing soft costs of PV systems
are:
 Customer Acquisition Costs (residential buildings)
• Related to availability of information on PV options
• Related to quality/availability of energy audits including PV
 Installation Labor Costs (residential and small commercial)
• Related to labor productivity (training, capacity building)
• Related to ease of installing devices
 Fees and Labor for Permits and Inspection
• Related to number of forms, complexity of regulations
 Overhead and Profit Margins
• Related to market competition (multiple available contractors)
• Related to price supports (keeping pace with cost reductions)

42. Potential Solutions: Policies That Target
Opportunities for Soft Cost Reductions
• Promote competitive markets and reduce price
supports in line with equipment costs to reduce
supply chain margins (profit and overhead).
• Streamline installation and improve vocational
education and training to reduce labor costs.
• Develop standards, market information exchange
databases, and embed PV cost calculators in audit
processes to reduce customer acquisition costs.
• Address policy and regulatory barriers to reduce
costs of permitting and inspecting, connecting PV
systems.
• Innovate financing to manage high up-front costs
of installing PV systems in ways that reduce
margins, labor costs, customer acquisition costs
and permitting and inspection costs in tandem.
National
Provincial

43. Potential Solutions:
Financial Mechanisms to Reduce Up-Front
Residential PV Costs and Acquire Customers
Third-party ownership models
•Reduces the up-front costs through discounts on bulk purchases
•Eliminates operations and maintenance responsibilities
Property tax assessment models
•Allows long-term financing at lower interest rates with taxes as
collateral
•Allows transfer of system ownership when the property is sold
Monetizing the PV environmental value
•Links sale of renewable energy certificates (SREC) to national or
international carbon markets
Shared-ownership models
•Allows for communities to jointly finance large PV systems
Utility-based models
•Allows for the finance of new, large-scale, local PV projects
•Provides benefits of economies of scale

44. Potential Solutions: Innovate Ownership
Structure through Leases and
Purchased Power Agreements
• Experienced private firms install PV systems on many roofs,
reducing overall costs for customer acquisition, permitting, and
installation labor.
 Lease Option: Customer pays for use of PV equipment.
 PPA Option: Customer pays for solar energy produced.
• Customers see immediate savings on their electric bills without the
effort of choosing and installing a PV system themselves.
• Suppliers earn good rates of return on PV system investment.
• Finance companies link investors with private firms:
 Firms sell service agreements to customers and install equipment.
 Finance companies charge a fee for processing the service agreements
and for monitoring and maintaining the equipment.
 Buyout options are available to building owners when the term of the
service agreement ends or when owners sell their house or office.

45. Potential Solutions: Roof Leasing Model
Applied by Narni Municipality in Italy
Public Administration and Roof Leasing:
• Italian Legislative decree No. 28/2011 states «[…] public
authorities can grant third persons leasehold estate in order to
enable them to install RES plants for electricity generation,
pursuant to legislative decree 2006, April 12 No. 163. This
provision also applies to military areas and army sites […]»
• As a result of this decree, many Italian municipalities started
initiatives providing private entrepreneurs with the access to
roofs (e.g., Narni Municipality).
Main Features
• Public notice seeks private sector expressions of
interest;
• Annual payment for leasehold estate right is based on
the amount of installed capacity;
• Private party pays for roof maintenance and for
design, construction and management of the PV plant;
and
• Municipality owns the PV plant, manages RES
subsidies, and sells electricity at expiration of the 20-
year contract.

46. Potential Solutions: Long-Term Investments
to Reduce Installation Labor Costs
•Installation labor is large portion of soft costs for all PV projects
• Larger systems benefit from construction labor scale economies
Training & Certification
Protect Safety, Improve
Performance AND Reduce
Total Costs
 Training, Professional
(international)
certifications
 Standardization of
equipment and designs,
development of local firms
 big opportunities
Source: Ardani, K et al. (2012) “WREF 2012: Benchmarking non-hardware balance of
system costs for PV systems in the United States using a bottom-up approach”

47. Potential Solutions: Streamlining Design and
Installation Processes
Use of international standards
to design and install PV
systems:
• Reduces transaction costs
• Provides access to best
practices worldwide
• Assures quality
• Increases workforce efficiency
• Develops local capacity for
designers and installers
• Provides a detailed technical
basis for laws and regulations
• Supports public and private
tendering processes
• Gives confidence to financing
sources (bankable projects)

48. Potential Solutions: Modular Assembly,
“Plug-and-Play” Design Efforts Reduce
Installation Labor & Overhead Cost
Micro-inverter,
mounting and
grounding assembly
are incorporated into
each panel.
Panels snap
together with
no extra wiring.

49. Potential Solutions: Italy’s Catalogue of Building-
Integrated PV Options Reduces Information Costs and
Customer Acquisition Costs, Boosts Competition
• The Catalogue makes it easy to
find the right technology with
samples of innovative building-
integrated PV solutions that have
been granted a higher feed-in
tariff:
• Innovative modules:
• Flexible PV modules
• Rigid PV modules
• Thin film layer on rigid support
• Photovoltaic tiles
• Transparent modules
• Innovative components
• Facades

50. Potential Solutions: Solarize Initiative
Reduces Soft Costs in U.S. Communities
through Group Sales)
“Solarize” model at community
level targets residential PV
challenges:
• Costs: high up-front costs
• Complexity: PV system
purchase process with hard
choices on technical issues
• Customer inertia: No clear
deadline for customer action
Basic program elements:
• Competitive contractor
selection process led by
community volunteers
• Community-led outreach and
education by a trusted local
organization
• Limited-time offer of just six
months vs. typical two-year
period from initial customer
inquiry to system installation
Source: US Department of Energy (2012) “THE SOLARIZE
GUIDEBOOK: A community guide to collective purchasing of
residential PV systems”

51. Environment – CO2 emissions

52. Energy security (world diversity)

53. Energy security (south America
diversity)

54. Jobs in selected countries in 2013

55. Global RE employment by
technology

56. Opportunities for Progress
• Promote innovative financing mechanisms to:
 Encourage firms that specialize in installation of building PV
 Make it easier for building owners to decide to install PV
 Grow the PV building market and achieve scale economies
• Develop cooperative initiatives to reduce installation labor costs:
 International standards for easily-installed PV modules
 Self-guided distance learning tools for building contractors
 Better information to help building owners select contractors
• Cooperate to promote low-net-energy city building standards:
 Build on existing networks of low-carbon communities to provide the
demand-pull that will build scale and lower costs

57. Analytic Issues to Consider
• How much new solar capacity might appear in
regional generating plans by 2030?
• What enhancements to the power grid might
make sense as solar capacity grow?
• Would distributed solar projects create a need
for enhancements to local distribution grids?
• How can we optimize the grid for cost savings,
electric supply security and sustainable growth?

58. Facilitating Variable RE
• Zoning: renewable power development zones to cluster
development and plan cost-effective transmission links to
load centers
• Planning: integrated resource planning at country and
regional level to incorporate a greater share of cost-
effective renewables
• Enabling: open markets, reduce financial risks to boost
renewable power investment
• Capacity Building: to plan and operate power grids with
higher share of renewables

59. Thank you for listening
Jacinto Estima
jestima@masdar.ac.ae