Eduprof Expertmeeting 14-15 April 2011 Groningen. Presentation on German Cohort Study on Work, Age and Health by Angela Rauch, Anita Tisch, Silke tophoven and Stefan Bender, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Germany

1. „lidA– leben in der Arbeit“ German Cohort Study on Work, Age and Health Angela Rauch, Anita Tisch, Silke Tophoven and Stefan Bender (IAB) Groningen April 14, 2011

2. Outline Motivation I and II Main Questions The lidA-cohorts Facts about lidA (Content, Sampling Design) Linkage with Administrative Data Related German surveys Conclusion 2

3. Motivation I Estimation of job displacement on Mortality (Sullivan/von Wachter 2010) Admin Data of male Pennsylvanian workers in 70s/80s matched to Social Security Administration death records 1980-2006. For high-seniority male workers, mortality rates in the year after displacement are 50-100% higher. The effect declines sharply over time, but even 20 years later still 10-15% increase in annual death hazards. A loss in life expectancy of 1.0-1.5 years for a worker displaced at age 40. Workers with larger losses in earnings tend to suffer greater increases in mortality (no causal effect). 3

4. Motivation II The working life of tomorrow will be characterised by higher intensity of work, much faster rate of change (technology and organisation), flexible working hours and arrangements, more interpersonal work/group work, higher proportion of immigrant workers etc. 4

5. Motivation II 5 Older work force as demographic changes prohibit early labour exit possibilities and incentives. Effective average retirement age may rise from just under 60 (2005) to almost 65 by 2050 (Börsch-Supan 2005). Source: Federal Statistical Office (2009). Results of the 12th coordinated population projection. Variant: “Medium“ population, lower limit .

6. Main questions Participation in the labour force among elderly persons depends on two main factors: Can the person work? (work ability). Functional ability (health) Does the person want to (continue to) work? (motivation, willingness). Psychological factors and positive qualities of work (may connected with health) Work affects health and health effects work!!! 6

8. The influence of socioeconomic status on health under the control of individual and work related factors

9. Gender-specific aspects of the relationship between work and health (different diseases, specific work aspects, non-work setting)7

10. Main factsandideas Deterioration of health begins after the age of 45 – especially among women and people with low educational levels The influences of age, cohort and time need to be separable in order to detect and forecast real developments. The application of a cohort-sequential design (known as Schaie's “Most Efficient Design”) allows for a tri-factor model isolating the impact of the factors age, cohort and time on work-related health. 8

11. German Baby Boomers 9 Births – Germany (West) Births – Germany (Total) Total fertility rate East Total fertility rate West Source: Federal Statistical Office 2010, BiB 2010; compiledbytheauthors.

12. Framework conditionsoflabourmarketentry – overalleconomicdevelopment 10 1959 cohortage 25 1965 cohortage 25 1965 cohortage 16 1959 cohortage16 Unemployment rate (ofdependentcilivianworkingpopulation - percentage) Gross domesticproduct (priceadjusted, GDP - yeartoyearpercentchange) Source: Federal Statistical Office 2011, compiledbytheauthors.

13. 11 The lidA-cohortsIn general German Baby Boomers 1959: 1.24 millionbirths (GDR +FRG) 1965: 1.33 millionbirths (GDR +FRG) Profiteers oftheeducationalexpansion in Germany Labour marketentryduringeconomiccrises Now: Atthethresholdtoolderworkingage 2008: 932,358 employeescoveredbysocialsecurityborn 1959; 1,048,788 employeescoveredbysocialsecurityborn 1965; aboutthe same proportionofmenandwomen In thefuture: A challengeforthesocialsecuritysystems

14. Study DesignSequential Cohort Design 46 2011 2013 2016 2019 1959 cohort 1965 cohort 1971 cohort cohort effects age effects period effects 52 48 54 51 45 57 48 54 60 12

15. Facts aboutthesurvey 6,000 randomly chosen persons in two cohorts: approx. 2,700 of the 59-cohort approx. 3,300 of the 65-cohort Duration of the questionaire: approx. 1 hour CAPI-interviews Follow-up after 3 years (panel design) 13

16. Work: Physical exposure and psychosocial work exposure Professional aspects: Work history, job satisfaction, work-home interference, employment status, retirement expectations, work ability Subjective health and health indicators: Interviewee’s own rating of physical and psychological health, health behaviour, restrictions in activity, cognitive functioning, anxiety, depression, fatigue, addictive behaviour Objective health indicators: Hand grip strength test Personal aspects: Lifestyle factors, activities of daily living, life satisfaction, self confidence, motivation Socio-demographic background: Age, gender, marital status, education level, occupational position, occupational biography 14

18. two-stage sampling design:

19. first stage: 222 sample points, drawn proportionately to the population

20. big cities are represented by more than one sample point

21. second stage: random selection of respondents within the sample points

22. the same amount of interviews in each sample point

24. Linkage with Administrative Data I Health Insurance Data Health insurance data* health insurance master data data on inpatient care data on outpatient care disablement data Work-Health-Matrix (aggregated data) * Preliminary information as of September 2010 17

26. number of full-time employees

27. number of female employees

28. employee age structure

29. wage structure

30. …

32. times of unemployment

33. information on job search

35. longitudinal data on a daily basis (west: 1975-2009; east: 1990-2009)

36. 19 The lidA-cohortsEmployment Status Men Employmentstatus byage, born 1959 Women Employmentstatus byage, born 1959

37. 20 The lidA-cohortsEmployment Status Men Employmentstatus byage, born 1965 Women Employmentstatus byage, born 1965

38. Maybetheother (short) presentation? 21

39. 22 Linkage with Administrative Data III First results of the pretest 2010 (n=200) Linkage between survey data and administrative data: 1. Agreement rates:

41. written agreement necessary

44. written agreement necessary

46. large and changing number of insurances in Germany (>160)

48. SHARE - Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe SHARE is a multidisciplinary and cross-national panel database of micro data on health, socio-economic status and social and family networks of more than 45,000 individuals aged 50 or over. In 2008 was selected as one of the projects to be implemented in the European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures (ESFRI). Eleven countries contributed data to the 2004 SHARE baseline study (Denmark, Sweden, Austria, France, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Italy and Greece). After 2005: Israel, Czech Republic, Poland and Ireland. 28

49. SHARE - content health variables bio-markers (e.g. grip strength, body-mass index, peak flow), psychological variables (e.g. well-being, life satisfaction), economic variables social support variables (e.g. assistance within families, transfers of income and assets, social networks, volunteer activities). For Germany: link between SHARE and administrative data from the German Pension System 29

50. Future data: The National Cohort The National Cohort will be an intensive investigation of the health, lifestyle and genetics of 200,000 people over 10 years. One hour survey and one additional our medical examination (for example biomarkers), follow-up after 5 years (plan: lifelong study). 40,000 participants will be scanned with advanced magnetic resonance imaging (early signs of common diseases). Main question: how chronic diseases are conditioned by lifestyle and environmental issues, as well as by genetic. Plan: Linkage to administrative data (agreement of the individuals). 30

51. Conclusion Labour marketandhealth will be a keytopicforresearch in thenextyears Linkageofsurveys, medicaltestdataandadministrateddata (agreementoftheindividuals) lidA will helpto unterstand therelationbetweenhealthandwork (hopeyouagree!) Same design forthe National Cohort Need for cross-national comparison (Share) 31

52. lidA - Konsortium Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung Angela Rauch (Projektleiterin) Stefan Bender Markus Promberger Patrycja Scioch Anita Tisch Silke Tophoven Mark Trappmann Bergische Universität Wuppertal Bernd Hans Müller (Projektleiter) Juliane Hardt Melanie Ebener Mario Iskenius Martin Willner Universität Magdeburg Enno Swart (Projektleiter) Stefanie March Dorothea Thomas Universität Ulm Richard Peter (Projektleiter) Jean-Baptist du Prel infas Helmut Schröder (Projektleiter) Jacob Steinwede Anne Kersting Töres Theorell Tage S. Kristensen associated partner: Hans Martin Hasselhorn, Uwe Rose (BAuA) 32

53. stefan.bender@iab.dewww.iab.dewww.lida-studie.de 33

54. Tage S. Kristensen 34 Backup

55. Employmentstatus byage, born 1959 35 The lidA-cohortsEmployment Status Employmentstatus byage, born 1965

56. 36 The lidA-cohortsEducation Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt 2009. Eigene Darstellung.