Case study giz transwater SADC

Case study ‘Transboundary
Water Management in SADC’
Regional Program
Donor
Coordination
German Focal Area
Coordination
www.giztranswatersadc.org Horst M. Vogel

LOGO
Confluence management of a
complex regional program
The essentials of broad
impact and scaling-up of
SADC Water
Everything flows!
Horst M. Vogelwww.giztranswatersadc.org

The complexity of a regional program such as ‘SADC Water’ is
characterized by such a large number and big diversity of variables
that its overall behaviour cannot be fully appreciated even if the
information about all variables and their interactions was known.
In general, one needs to distinguish between structural and dynamic
complexity.
Structural complexity (e.g. organisations) results from the relationship
between individual variables.
Dynamic complexity (e.g. processes) is the result of changes of
variables and their relationships over time.

If a system grows by the factor
10, then it becomes 1023 times
more complex!
n is the number of elements
growing, e.g. staff members
Atlas of economic complexity
(Ricardo Hausmann et al.)
Deutsche Exportströme
Complexity is the opposite of understanding at first sight

The tangible practical challenge of a complex program (relational structure, set
of interactions, system) to a large extent is that its successful operational and
strategic planning must not be one-dimensional, mono-causal and linear (A to B)
but n-dimensional, poly-causal and circular that is lateral and dynamic.
William Ashby formulated a cybernetic law that has quasi natural authority over
strategy formulation. According to the Law of Ashby, complexity can only be
coped with complexity.
Complexity requires integrative networking, which deals with the program as a
whole. As a rule of thumb, any solution strategy meant to cope with complexity
must be as complex as its environ.
The paradox of complexity is that it requires both reduction
(modulation, modelling) and escalation (multi-dimensional
diversity, experimenting) that is confluence.

The cognitive abilities of the
human brain cannot fully
comprehend the complexity
of our world, i.e. there
exists a cognitive threshold.
Creation of islands of
lower complexity
through the formation
of effective structures!
How can we close the gap
between complexity and
human perception?

Structure formation
Building stones of ‘SADC Water’

Leadership means responsibility and ethics is its key!
Cognition
Cognitive flexibility,
social reasoning
Coordination
Target setting for self-
organised processes
Cooperation
Inspiration, confluence of
stakeholder interests
Competence
Professional instruction
and methodological as
well as solution expertise
Leadership
Communikation
Transparency, USP,
trustworthyness
Consensus
Arrival at acceptable
solutions

Success isn‘t a zero-sum game!
Leadership that copes with
complexity is based on a mix of
‘Enabler’ and ‘Navigator’
as well as
‘Laissez-faire en route’
D
o
o
r
o
p
e
n
e
r

Capacity WORKS is GIZ’s
management model for
structured sustainable
development.
Capacity WORKS
How often and according to what
kind of structure and rules is up
to program management.
The key points of departure
for Capacity WORKS are
the objectives and results
jointly agreed with partners.
The actual implementation
process is lined up against
Five Success Factors that
have to be
monitored, evaluated and
adjusted on an iterative
basis.

Management
Core (Teamleader)
organises complexity,
provides strategic
objectives & tactical-
operational impulses
Network (Team)
poly-centric organisation and
practical implementation

Electronic toolbox:
Gantt chart
traffic-light system
online M&E system

“If the only tool you have is
a hammer, you tend to see
every problem as a nail.”
(A. Maslow, M. Twain, P. Watzlawick)

INTERVENTION
LEVELS
STRATEGIC
FOCUS AREAS
CAPACITY
DEVELOPMENT Organisational consulting
Staff training
Institutional promotion
Water governance
Water management
Infrastructure development
Shared
Watercourses
Municipalities
SADC Region
Capacity Cube
aimed at the optimisation of
implementation processes
Concept

„Our cognitive model of reality is a low-
dimensional projection of the unconceivably
richer physcial reality in which we live.“
(Thomas Metzinger, Neuroethics)
Awareness creation for a sound cognitive model of reality!
Cube model: All staff employ the same
terminology based on the same meaning and
thus employ the most important means of
communication that is a common language.
The Sapir-Whorf hypothesis holds that the
structure of a language affects the perceptions
of reality of its speakers and thus influences their
thought patterns and worldviews.

The Cube Model
(Morphological/Zwicky box) is
a 3-dimensional construction
plan (framework) aimed at the
results-oriented organisation of
structural and dynamic
complexity and meant for
programmatic prioritisation.

The cube model
keeps sight of the
relationships of
the 3 dimensions
Context
Synopsis
Orientation

Flexibility
... and the modes of action between all cells!
Interlocking
Structuring

The cube models also lends itself for
donor coordination!

www.giztranswatersadc.orgHorst M. Vogel
Additional
mechanism for the
reduction of donor
complexity!
• Be of good services,
• Communicate transparently,
• Act according to agreed ToR,
• Think abundance and win-win,
• Flow together (self-)interests.
Building stone „Herding Cats’

Practise
Stepping from theory into practice is always a challenge, ... because the
cube won‘t fill by itself!
Theoretical constructs such as the cube model are one side of the
coin, namely that of reduction. The practical implementation of concepts
and models on the ground is the other side of the coin.
Since complexity – just like the future – is inherently uncertain, we need to
stay mentally agile just like an athlete has to stay physically fit.
The successful management of a complex program including scaling up
also requires escalation that is the generation of solution possibilities and
the expansion of courses of action.
In the case of ‘SADC Water’ this was achieved through the consistent
application of three dynamic key principles.

The Principle of Execution: Culture of effective execution – i.e.
create comparative cost benefits and a unique selling proposition!
The Principle of Braided Rivers: Lots of parallel, incremental
approaches lead to success – i.e. lower tansaction costs!
The Principle of Serendipity: Create opportunities that turn into
solutions – i.e. avoid opportunity costs!
Key principles applied for
successful confluence
management at „SADC Water‟

The Principle of Execution
Planning on its own falls short of success; we simply need to do things
and based on an international compass (i.e. DAC criteria).
GIZ won‘t become the „Global Leader in Development Cooperation’
through the cap in hand attainment of cashflow figures but only through
entrepreneurial action.
What is needed is a culture of execution; we simply need to do things
with our partners, we need to continuously follow up and follow through!

The Principle of Braided Rivers
Implementation must be rich in ideas that is rather than getting stuck in
the doldrums, we need to follow the lead of natural rivers and spread out
along several interconnected destination channels!
Experimental-incremental path of development rather than command
economy; rigid planning templates and a bureaucratic corsett of control
mechanisms only cause high opportunity and transaction costs.
We cannot wait and see whether development path A is leading to
success before we embark on development path B too – what counts are
destination (potential solutions) and portfolio (courses of action)!

Success hardly comes easy; even if we follow our aims in a structured
modus operandi (see cube model) must we keep on thinking out of the
box and see ‘what is’.
The fog of complexity is dense. That is why we must always be on the
lookout for accidental good fortune, for additional courses of action.
The Principle of Serendipity also emphasises to search for upscaleable
business opportunities based on calculated risk and common sense!
The Principle of Serendipity

As „People of action‟ we also need to accept that holistic
thinking and action is not ‘whole’ if we do not ask the essential
question. And reflection inevitably leads into the realm of
philosophy!
Surely, a code of ethics (rules of conduct) is also part of
holistic thinking and action:
• Talk straight,
• Keep promises,
• Act based on values,
• Cooperate transparently,
• Maintain authenticity and integrity.

Results
Waterfall of
potential solutions
and causes of action
A crucial key to success is
up-to-date information and
relevant know-how.
... from which do spring
tangible and visible
results!

PPP Emfuleni (South Africa)
1 mill. € seed funding
results in
water savings of
3 mill. € per annum
and ringfencing of savings
increases this to 6 mill. €/year
Edna Molewa, Minister of Water
Affairs, regards Emfuleni as PPP prototype
to close the existing investment gap for
water infrastructure.

broad
impact
+
scaling-up
Choice rather than
gamble results in ...
Confluence of 1001
courses of action
and solutions

OCTOBER
2005
5 mill. EUR
OCTOBER
2008
5 mill. EUR
5 mill. GBP
DECEMBER
2010
2.5 mill. AUD
EARLY
2011
2.0 mill. GBP
6.0 mill. EUR
EARLY
2012
13.8 mill. GBP
15.0 mill. AUD
Good services translated into success!

www.giztranswatersadc.org Horst M. Vogel
SADC United Colours

Case study giz transwater SADC

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