Transformation and Vulnerability in Ethiopia Symposium 2016

1. ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT
RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Diet Transformation in Ethiopia
Ibrahim Worku, Mekdim Dereje, Bart Minten and Kalle Hirvonen
IFPRI ESSP
Transformation and vulnerability in Ethiopia: New evidence to inform
policy and investments
May 27, 2016
Getfam Hotel, Addis Ababa
1

2. 2
Outline
1. Introduction
2. Food versus non-food expenditures
3. Cereals versus non-cereals
4. Non-cereal foods
5. Urban versus rural
6. Sources of food expenditures
7. Income and the share of food/cereals
8. Income and cereal expenditures
9. Calorie consumption
10. Prices per calorie
11. Calorie growth determinants
12. Conclusions and implications
Type
Food vs Non food
Location
Urban vs Rural
Food
Cereals vs Non Cereals
Source
Produced vs
Market
Income
Poor vs Non poor
Calorie
Calorie Consumption
Calorie Price
Calorie Growth
Cereals Non cereals
Consumption Pattern

3. 3
Introduction
• Rapid changes in Ethiopia’s economy (Ethiopia one of the fastest
growing economies in the world)
• Important increases in agricultural production in last decade
• Despite improvements in economy and in agricultural production,
still important nutritional problems in the country
• Purpose of the analysis: Explore patterns and changes in
Ethiopia’s food economy, based on nationally representative data
(HICES), Central Statistical Agency (CSA).

4. 4
Food versus non-food expenditures
1) Important welfare
improvements
• Increasing real expenditures
overall
• Food expenditures grew by 19%
between 2011 and 2000
• Increasing share of non-food
- 2000: 37%
- 2005: 46%
- 2011: 52%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000 2005 2011
Birr/capita
Food
Non-food

5. 5
Cereals versus non-cereals
2) Increasing diversification in the
food basket
• However, quantities of cereals
consumed is increasing:
- 1996: 127 kgs/capita
- 2000: 141 kgs/capita
- 2005: 150 kgs/capita
- 2011: 155 kgs/capita
• Share of cereals in expenditures
on the decline
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2005 2011
Shareinfoodexpenditures
(%)
cereals non-cereals

6. 6
Non-cereal foods
3) Diversification into high-value
food types
• Non-cereal foods on the rise:
- animal products
- oils and fats
- F&V
- Coffee/tea/chat
0
5
10
15
2000 2005 2011
%foodexpenditures
animal products oil and fat
F&V enset/kocho
coffee/tea/chat

7. 7
Cereals
4) Considerable variation within cereal
consumption
• In kg terms, maize most important
cereals
• Maize consumption increasing over
time (37 kgs in 2000 ; 51 kgs in 2011)
• In expenditure terms, teff, wheat
and maize equally important (each
about 7.5% of expenditures)
• Processed cereals not important yet
overall (4.6% of expenditures)
0
50
100
150
2000 2005 2011
kg/capita/year
teff wheat barley
maize sorghum other

8. 8
Urban versus rural
5) Important difference between
urban and rural
• Urbanization low in Ethiopia but
taking off
• Has implication on Ethiopia’s food
economy
• Urban residents have different food
basket:
- More consumption of teff and
meat
- Lower consumption of maize and
sorghum 0 5 10 15
teff
sorghum
maize
processed cereals
animal products
enset/kocho
F&V
% food expenditures
Rural
Urban

9. 9
Sources of food expenditures
6) Food markets becoming more
important
• Food in rural areas mostly
acquired through own
consumption (42%)
• However, food markets (sales of
food for food purchase (34%))
already important in rural areas
and very high in urban areas
• Salaries/wages, sales of non-ag.
products, and remittances
important in urban areas
0 20 40 60
Auto-consumption
Sale ag. products
Sale non-ag. products
Salary/wage
Remittances
Others
% food expenditures
Urban
Rural

10. 10
Income and the share of food/cereals
7) Important difference between the poor and non-poor
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Poorest q2 q3 q4 Richest
Shareoffoodintotalexp.(%)
2011 2005 2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Poorest q2 q3 q4 richest
Shareofcerealsinfoodexp.
(%)
2011 2005 2000

11. 11
Income and cereal expenditures
• Share of cereals going down for
richer households
• Teff (9.1% versus 4.4%) and
processed cereals (8.9% versus
2.6%) more eaten by the rich
than by poor
• Maize (13.0% versus 2.6%) and
sorghum (6.9% versus 1.8%)
more eaten by the poor than by
the rich
0
10
20
30
40
Poorest q2 q3 q4 Richest
%foodexpenditures
teff wheat
barley maize
sorghum processed cereals

12. 12
Income and non-cereal expenditures
• Share of non-cereals going up
for richer households
• Animal products (17.6% versus
6.6%) more eaten by the rich
than by poor
• Enset/kocho (6.4% versus 1.7%)
and pulses (10.1% versus 7.6%)
more eaten by the poor than by
the rich
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Poorest q2 q3 q4 Richest
%foodexpenditures
animal products pulses
oil and fat F&V
enset/kocho coffee/tea/chat
other

13. 13
Calorie consumption
8) Average calorie consumption
improving
• Average calorie consumption 9%
higher in last decade
• Cereals stays major source of
calories:
- 2000: 65%
- 2005: 61%
- 2011: 62%
• Maize makes up 20% of calorie
consumption in 2011
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2005 2011
Kcal/day/adultequivalent
cereals non-cereals

14. 14
Prices per calorie
9) Large variation in prices paid
per calorie
• Maize is the cheapest source of
calories (followed closely by
enset, sorghum, and root crops)
• Processed cereals four times as
expensive as non-processed
• Cereals half the price of non-
cereals 0 0.2 0.4 0.6
maize
enset/kocho
sorghum
root crops
barley
teff
wheat
sugar and salt
oil and fat
processed cereals
Birr/kcal

15. 15
10) Increase in calorie consumption is mainly due to growth in income
Decomposition of the changes in calorie intakes
Overall
Year 2011 7.99***
Year 1996 7.73***
difference 0.26***
explained 0.256***
unexplained 0.005
explained
(log) real expenditure (aeu) 0.22***
(log) real calorie cost per day 0.05***
Other controls Yes
observations 39,748

16. 16
Conclusions
• Important food diet transformation in the last decade:
1/ Average quantity (+23%) and calorie (+9%) consumption has improved
significantly
2/ Share of cereals in expenditures on the decline (43% in 2000; 35% in 2011)
3/ Consumption of more expensive foods on the rise (animal foods; processed
foods; coffee/tea/chat)
• Large differences in food consumption by income levels and between urban
and rural populations
4) Growth in calorie consumption is mainly explained by growth in income

17. 17
Implications
1/ Agricultural policy successful in promoting cereal productivity in the past;
however, more demand for diversified foods; more emphasis required in the
future on diversification in non-cereal production
2/ Agricultural markets play more important role in food economy; further
stimulate these markets and better understand constraints in their functioning
3/ While average improvements, part of the population no adequate diets;
further continuation and strengthening of nutrition-sensitive safety nets
required