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The Long Now Foundation : January 02009




Climate Change
Recalculated
Saul Griffith.
Makanipower.com
Wattzon.com
Would you prefer
a glass of wine
every evening, or
an annual business
trip?
would you prefer
your taxes spent
on schools or
roads?
would you prefer a
hot shower every
day or eating
meat?
you have heard about...



climate change
you have heard about...


carbon footprint
you have heard about...


energy
independence
let us have a look at these things as though:


we are reconciling the
short term us...

with the 10000 year
future of us...
and hopefully we'll answer two questions...


how do your personal
actions effect climate?

can there be a global
solution for climate
change?
a big pile of numbers to show you that...

climate change and
energy issues are
aesthetic issues.

what is a quality life?
Two stories : one global, one personal.
HOW MUCH POWER
   DO I USE?
Energy is measured in Joules (J)




                      Lifting an apple from
                      the ground to the
                      table. ~ 1 Joule
Power is measured in Watts (W).
1 Watt = 1 Joule / second



                      Lifting one apple from
                      the ground to the table
                      each second. ~ 1 Watt.
40 apples per second
from the ground to the
table = 40 Watts.
Running this Apple laptop takes 40 Watts.
Power

                       100 W               = You, sitting there, reading.



                    1000 W            1kW = Domestic kettle
           1 kilowatt (kW) = 1000 W




             1000000 W                1MW = Diesel locomotive / wind turbine.
        1 megawatt (MW) = 1000 kW




        1000000000 W                  1GW = Hoover dam
        1 gigawatt (GW) = 1000 MW




    1000000000000 W                   1TW = World power consumption, 1890
         1 terawatt (TW) = 1000 GW
"Watts per always" - your life in light bulbs.




                           100W




  A 12,000 Watt lifestyle is 120 x 100
  watt light bulbs burning permanently.
  ( Or 920 Compact Fluorescents )
Why watts ?
Allows you to compare activities on different timescales.

Allows you to consider non-carbon effects of using so much power.

If you do something yearly (like fly 105,000 miles), it contributes:
168,207 kilometers                    1 year              1.40 megajoules                 Joules
      1 year
                          �
                              31,536,000 seconds
                                                    �
                                                            1 kilometer
                                                                               � 7,462
                                                                                          second
                                                                                                   = 7,462 Watts



If you do something monthly (like your electricity bill), it contributes:
122 kilowatt ·hours                1 month                 3.6 megajoules                 Joules
     1 month
                          �
                              2,952,000 seconds
                                                    �
                                                           1 kilowatt · hour
                                                                                 � 170
                                                                                          second
                                                                                                   = 170 Watts



If you do something daily (like drink 1 Energy drink), it contributes:
1 energy drink                1 day                7.84 megajoules               Joules
    1 day
                      �
                          86,400 seconds
                                               �
                                                        1 bottle
                                                                          � 90
                                                                                 second   = 90 Watts


Yearly things + Monthly things + Daily things = your lifestyle in watts.
Flight

Saul Griffith in 2007: 112,000 Miles
7,992 Watts equivalent. 18.500 kg CO2
Driving
                                        4500 Mi/yr
10,000 Miles                            Honda Insight
1,500 Watts                             55 mpg
                                                                           2000 Mi/yr
                                        81.82 gallons spent
                                                                           other (avg. rental)
                                        9,900,000,000 J
           Seattle                                                         16 mpg
                                        313.71 Watts
                                                                           125 gallons spent
                                                                           15,125,000,000 J
                                                                           479.28 Watts



                                                                                                                        Boston
                     1000 Mi/yr
                     Dune Buggy (VW)                                              Chicago                            New York
                     25 mpg
  San Francisco      40 gallons spent
                     4,840,000,000 J             1200 Mi/yr
                     153.37 Watts                Toyota Tacoma
                                                 18 mpg
                                                 66.67 gallons spent
                                                 8,066,666,667 J
                                                 255.62 Watts
         San Diego

                          Tucson                                                            Atlanta



                                                                                                      Jacksonville



            700 Mi/yr
            Toyota Hilux
            17 mpg
                                                                       600 Mi/yr                      Key West
            41.18 gallons spent
                                                                       Sprinter Diesel
            4,982,352,941 J
                                                                       20 mpg
            157.88 Watts
                                                                       30 gallons spent
                                                                       4,128,000,000 J
                                                                       130.81 Watts
Domestic energy consumption
2 person stand alone house, 2br, Mission District, SF.
                                    Home Gas and Electric breakdown625W

1400                                                                                                                 GAS shower
                                                                                                                     GAS cooking
                                                                                                                     GAS heat
                                                                                                                     ELEC fridge
1200                                                                                                                 ELEC computer
                                                                                                                     ELEC toothbrush
                                                                                                                     ELEC phone chargers
                                                                                                                     ELEC laptop1
1000                                                                                                                 ELEC laptop2
                                                                                                                     ELEC stereo
                                                                                                                     ELEC lights&other


800




600




400




200




  0
       JANUARY


                 FEBRUARY




                                                                                               NOVEMBER
                                                         JULY




                                                                                                          DECEMBER
                                                                AUGUST


                                                                         SEPTEMBER
                                            MAY


                                                  JUNE
                            MARCH




                                                                                     OCTOBER
                                    APRIL
Work Power Consumption...
   18,400² Foot Office, 40 People sharing
1250

                                                 Gas : 201 Watts
                                                 Electric : 411 Watts




1000




750




500




250




  0
       Jan   feb   mar   apr   may   jun   jul          aug      sep    oct   nov   dec
My 2007 diet.

                            772 Watts
    Milk Cheese:     30 W

             Wine:   76 W

        Vegetables:   100

      Farming:      100 W

Transportation:     120 W

      Fertilizer:   125 W

  Meat & Fish:      221 W
Society - my 1/300 000 000th share of the US infrastructure...



US Military: 94      W

US Nuclear protection: 50           W

US Government: 18           W

NASA: 1.1      W

USPS: 5     W

* Published fuel and electricity numbers.
Insight




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Me
Me and my ladyfriend
1000 people
1 000 000 People
Per capita power use 2003
                 Per Capita Energy Use 2003


            30
                                                                           16 Belgium
                                                                           17 Saudi Arabia
                                                                           18 Singapore
                                                                           19 Gibraltar
                                                                           20 Netherlands
                                                                           21 Oman
                                             1 Qatar                       22 France
                                                                           23 Russian Federation
            25                               2 Iceland                     24 New Zealand
                                             3 United Arab Emirates        25 Korea, Rep
                                                                           26 Czech Rep
                                             4 Bahrain                     27 Germany
                                                                           28 Austria
                                             5 Luxembourg                  29 Japan
                                             6 Netherlands Antilles        30 United Kingdom
                                                                           31 Denmark
                                             7 Kuwait                      32 Ireland
            20                               8 Trinidad and Tobago         33 Switzerland
                                                                           34 Estonia
                                             9 Canada                      35 Turkmenistan
                                                                           36 Slovenia
                                             10 United States              37 Slovakia
                                             11 Brunei Darussalam          38 Kazakhstan
                                                                           39 Cyprus
kilowatts




                                             12 Finland                    40 Spain
                                                                           41 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
                                             13 Norway
            15
                                                                           42 Israel
                                             14 Sweden                     43 Italy
                                                                           44 Ukraine
                                             15 Australia                  45 Greece
                                                                           46 Belarus
                                                                           47 Lithuania
                                                                           48 South Africa
                                                                           49 Hungary
                                                                           50 Bulgaria
                                                                                                       US Average.
            10




            5
                                                                                                       Global
                                                                                                       Average


                 0          10               20               30      40                          50
World Power Consumption by Country, 1965-2005
                                                                 USA
                                                                 Canada
                                                                 Mexico
                                                                 Argentina
            15                                                   Brazil
                                                                 Chile
                                                                 Colombia
                                                                 Ecuador
                                                                 Peru
                                                                 Venezuela
                                                                 Other S. & Cent. America
                                                                 Austria
                                                                 Azerbaijan
                                                                 Belarus
                                                                 Belgium & Luxembourg
                                                                 Bulgaria
                                                                 Czech Republic
                                                                 Denmark
                                                                 Finland
                                                                 France
                                                                 Germany
                                                                 Greece
                                                                 Hungary
                                                                 Iceland
            10                                                   Republic of Ireland
                                                                 Italy
                                                                 Kazakhstan
                                                                 Lithuania
                                                                 Netherlands
                                                                 Norway
                                                                 Poland
terawatts




                                                                 Portugal
                                                                 Romania
                                                                 Russian Federation
                                                                 Slovakia
                                                                 Spain
                                                                 Sweden
                                                                 Switzerland
                                                                 Turkey
                                                                 Turkmenistan
                                                                 Ukraine
                                                                 United Kingdom
                                                                 Uzbekistan
                                                                 Other Europe & Eurasia
            5                                                    Iran
                                                                 Kuwait
                                                                 Qatar
                                                                 Saudi Arabia
                                                                 United Arab Emirates
                                                                 Other Middle East
                                                                 Algeria
                                                                 Egypt
                                                                 South Africa
                                                                 Other Africa
                                                                 Australia
                                                                 Bangladesh
                                                                 China
                                                                 China Hong Kong SAR
                                                                 India
                                                                 Indonesia
                                                                 Japan
                                                                 Malaysia
                                                                 New Zealand
                                                                 Pakistan
            0                                                    Philippines
                                                                 Singapore
                                                                 South Korea
                    1970        1980         1990        2000    Taiwan
                                                                 Thailand
                                                                 Other Asia Pacific
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Longnow 16 Jan 09

  • 1.
  • 2. The Long Now Foundation : January 02009 Climate Change Recalculated Saul Griffith. Makanipower.com Wattzon.com
  • 3. Would you prefer a glass of wine every evening, or an annual business trip?
  • 4. would you prefer your taxes spent on schools or roads?
  • 5. would you prefer a hot shower every day or eating meat?
  • 6. you have heard about... climate change
  • 7. you have heard about... carbon footprint
  • 8. you have heard about... energy independence
  • 9. let us have a look at these things as though: we are reconciling the short term us... with the 10000 year future of us...
  • 10. and hopefully we'll answer two questions... how do your personal actions effect climate? can there be a global solution for climate change?
  • 11. a big pile of numbers to show you that... climate change and energy issues are aesthetic issues. what is a quality life?
  • 12. Two stories : one global, one personal.
  • 13. HOW MUCH POWER DO I USE?
  • 14. Energy is measured in Joules (J) Lifting an apple from the ground to the table. ~ 1 Joule
  • 15. Power is measured in Watts (W). 1 Watt = 1 Joule / second Lifting one apple from the ground to the table each second. ~ 1 Watt.
  • 16. 40 apples per second from the ground to the table = 40 Watts.
  • 17. Running this Apple laptop takes 40 Watts.
  • 18. Power 100 W = You, sitting there, reading. 1000 W 1kW = Domestic kettle 1 kilowatt (kW) = 1000 W 1000000 W 1MW = Diesel locomotive / wind turbine. 1 megawatt (MW) = 1000 kW 1000000000 W 1GW = Hoover dam 1 gigawatt (GW) = 1000 MW 1000000000000 W 1TW = World power consumption, 1890 1 terawatt (TW) = 1000 GW
  • 19. "Watts per always" - your life in light bulbs. 100W A 12,000 Watt lifestyle is 120 x 100 watt light bulbs burning permanently. ( Or 920 Compact Fluorescents )
  • 20. Why watts ? Allows you to compare activities on different timescales. Allows you to consider non-carbon effects of using so much power. If you do something yearly (like fly 105,000 miles), it contributes: 168,207 kilometers 1 year 1.40 megajoules Joules 1 year � 31,536,000 seconds � 1 kilometer � 7,462 second = 7,462 Watts If you do something monthly (like your electricity bill), it contributes: 122 kilowatt ·hours 1 month 3.6 megajoules Joules 1 month � 2,952,000 seconds � 1 kilowatt · hour � 170 second = 170 Watts If you do something daily (like drink 1 Energy drink), it contributes: 1 energy drink 1 day 7.84 megajoules Joules 1 day � 86,400 seconds � 1 bottle � 90 second = 90 Watts Yearly things + Monthly things + Daily things = your lifestyle in watts.
  • 21. Flight Saul Griffith in 2007: 112,000 Miles 7,992 Watts equivalent. 18.500 kg CO2
  • 22. Driving 4500 Mi/yr 10,000 Miles Honda Insight 1,500 Watts 55 mpg 2000 Mi/yr 81.82 gallons spent other (avg. rental) 9,900,000,000 J Seattle 16 mpg 313.71 Watts 125 gallons spent 15,125,000,000 J 479.28 Watts Boston 1000 Mi/yr Dune Buggy (VW) Chicago New York 25 mpg San Francisco 40 gallons spent 4,840,000,000 J 1200 Mi/yr 153.37 Watts Toyota Tacoma 18 mpg 66.67 gallons spent 8,066,666,667 J 255.62 Watts San Diego Tucson Atlanta Jacksonville 700 Mi/yr Toyota Hilux 17 mpg 600 Mi/yr Key West 41.18 gallons spent Sprinter Diesel 4,982,352,941 J 20 mpg 157.88 Watts 30 gallons spent 4,128,000,000 J 130.81 Watts
  • 23. Domestic energy consumption 2 person stand alone house, 2br, Mission District, SF. Home Gas and Electric breakdown625W 1400 GAS shower GAS cooking GAS heat ELEC fridge 1200 ELEC computer ELEC toothbrush ELEC phone chargers ELEC laptop1 1000 ELEC laptop2 ELEC stereo ELEC lights&other 800 600 400 200 0 JANUARY FEBRUARY NOVEMBER JULY DECEMBER AUGUST SEPTEMBER MAY JUNE MARCH OCTOBER APRIL
  • 24. Work Power Consumption... 18,400² Foot Office, 40 People sharing 1250 Gas : 201 Watts Electric : 411 Watts 1000 750 500 250 0 Jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec
  • 25. My 2007 diet. 772 Watts Milk Cheese: 30 W Wine: 76 W Vegetables: 100 Farming: 100 W Transportation: 120 W Fertilizer: 125 W Meat & Fish: 221 W
  • 26. Society - my 1/300 000 000th share of the US infrastructure... US Military: 94 W US Nuclear protection: 50 W US Government: 18 W NASA: 1.1 W USPS: 5 W * Published fuel and electricity numbers.
  • 27. Insight up gy ick g bu ne ap Honda du ot en toy g wa ks er H l d dd trip er vo or la e rs ov re e y k nc ep ast tre we ec la r hisl ke io st s po honpatuolletlbow ot w p AS ns m istm tma te uin na r ex m alch hrisrry g alu tur ialc ca eba ic e c tif as n ar uitc fere lla st ne s n re e co mb lChpho boo chrina u oo sk m ru llp ers intr snwuga ce bb pa ndgklmkrkr n taateo e laean ictenn vinlebne inlscmo n c n eta nstaakp Fr b ing oo mduhuspp r itc s sp wosec apee pp baok g r upe ceixc so yc K ll kit u in s fr r b eesappk nn e etep intchffh Wmoleaaic h id wcttn odbcueitc ma ed tele tao repin sb kec slaeinn tesareg tus hfo lagcteolo tt aoelaceif e ol sg te d peeurif laoo pdkleten k t le sbs ll aabmns sprlaskan Greope gulop creotanif o o b rk eproeiv o P sto ed TR T de ba somp es pr es coo c plantp pla ots rge ofab ing ntpotla s irdin ble tin gk din a ta ch ing itc he n sit g fallow oorru h nc So pi nfl f be l e ole he ram wo oksfutonf ame Boodenlfutonfr ss ttre nma wo eta m futo ChairWood) ( er it beltleath crocsshoes Table oolSu MenW opants menso t cks carg llaredar rtst- shirat t ensco erwe nshocks woolh ebrimha d me shir tm enunhoes so wid Shoes m rs oots leathe Hat et uggb s len pant Woocoatjack lls per oachveralls overa axedpa Watch-C il clingwrapsaran w erroll co fo toiletpap aluminum d er washingpow detergent teacandle Book conditionerthpaste sheetsofpaper too framed se rt Papercup a hampoo (mhbrush l) CDjewelca e ardgam Toot lfball bo ll tennisba go lftee go d tennisrac ket surfb cycle oar r motogerbag n esse le lephantet BikemGolfClubinflaotabrcyeclehelm s rs m to e Pap ws Ne e s in an az e ag in ar Re M o uter gaz m ly a th m m n ee p on ta rly m Dr Oveerahine cr ns Co frig ac p r r tio te n to p ec m Ca e kto oj ar pr on es g t qu Ph D p s PHYSICAL STUFF ye cle La ile ob hin M y as Bic House W ~2500 Watts
  • 28. SFO TO LHR 41 W W W 60 LHR- 3 W 4 SF 30 TS 29 SFO ER ATL HE 3 O-A H TH DS LIG ED SFO L-A -ATL 60 W O - SF A TL ET 1 W W NT O O M R RE -CP A 4 OU S- 410 W O1 K- ST ASA CE 4 W 160 AT O 0W H5 CC G TI Y L- G N S SF -H G 4W N-A W 10 O JU ER W W 3 O N N ER W 3 W NO -O 57 E H S A 1 S IR W OT S LE FA 0 SF K W 5 W O- 56 H 2 IC AF E H H - IC BO BO 0 SA .VE NS S- S W G V A RV W SF 21 O ER -SE 0 OA O 21 0 W G T L 10 OA K DC -DC 8W VE STA E K-O 0W NS RD -M -O AK 18 0 DS 0 W PO FE ON 18 W OO 34 DE -QU EG N QU E-D E2 0W HIT ATIO 0 W TW 10 W UC 6 -SF W ED ANCE O2 BUR-O SFO 10 W FIN -JFK W AK 20 W OAK-BUR 200 680 20 W JFK-SFO ARE W LTHC 200 W HEA SFO-BO W BOS-ORD S 210 W TION 110 70 W RECREA ORD-SFO 14 0W HOUSE 260 W SFO-JFK 200 W JFK-SFO 200 W 230 W MISCSTU SJC-SJO FF1000 W 0W JC 23 SJO-S 0W BOO IJ 28 KS S JC-V W WA 130 80 STE W C2 BIK DIS -SJ NE ES PO TEXT VIJ WS 6 WW SA L 9 ILES EL 18 A EC 0 W TER 1 W T 90 W TR 60 RAN W ON W SPO 1 40 CO IC S2 RTT OM D1 M PU 50 E 4 SY W 0W O- TE SF RS BO W 70 0 AT 0 CA 31 W W S RS R 0 50 0W WO -D 31 56 0W W O WO ERTI 28 O SF RK 0W AG IN 0 SF HILU 150 W 28 TE W 0W RK K HE W 0W - .F OA SHOWERS GAS 70 W 0W COOKING GAS 30 W DR RN 31 EL AT FO 100 X 16 ET O- MA 24 HT EC 20 TAXIORRENTAL 47 K-S W SF 70 SIG LIZ TER 0W TR YV OA W IC MY 2007 LIFE: ER A IN UGG A TACO PRIN 41 OTA 50 ND 0W EB GE S W TOY 17027 Watts HO DUN TOYOT AG ELEC CIDE AG PEST 0 W 0 W DOD . FO AG . CO . BE SS FF SU ER CE ILF OTHER EE LIGHTS GA TR STERE FR LAPTOP COMPU &W W I RE FRIDGE DA UE HEATIN IC R UIT 50 W S 3 2 FA AL IRY LS ME INE 20 40 TS ,V S& S ELEC 8 O ELEC AT 80 ELEC 7 EG AN GGS W 10 6 TER EL ELEC 1 G GAS 4 GR TS 9 ELEC 3 &E W DO &N W AIN U IL 0W W S 1W EC 10 16 0W 10 00 W W 0W 0W 0W W W
  • 29. Me
  • 30. Me and my ladyfriend
  • 32. 1 000 000 People
  • 33. Per capita power use 2003 Per Capita Energy Use 2003 30 16 Belgium 17 Saudi Arabia 18 Singapore 19 Gibraltar 20 Netherlands 21 Oman 1 Qatar 22 France 23 Russian Federation 25 2 Iceland 24 New Zealand 3 United Arab Emirates 25 Korea, Rep 26 Czech Rep 4 Bahrain 27 Germany 28 Austria 5 Luxembourg 29 Japan 6 Netherlands Antilles 30 United Kingdom 31 Denmark 7 Kuwait 32 Ireland 20 8 Trinidad and Tobago 33 Switzerland 34 Estonia 9 Canada 35 Turkmenistan 36 Slovenia 10 United States 37 Slovakia 11 Brunei Darussalam 38 Kazakhstan 39 Cyprus kilowatts 12 Finland 40 Spain 41 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 13 Norway 15 42 Israel 14 Sweden 43 Italy 44 Ukraine 15 Australia 45 Greece 46 Belarus 47 Lithuania 48 South Africa 49 Hungary 50 Bulgaria US Average. 10 5 Global Average 0 10 20 30 40 50
  • 34. World Power Consumption by Country, 1965-2005 USA Canada Mexico Argentina 15 Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Peru Venezuela Other S. & Cent. America Austria Azerbaijan Belarus Belgium & Luxembourg Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland 10 Republic of Ireland Italy Kazakhstan Lithuania Netherlands Norway Poland terawatts Portugal Romania Russian Federation Slovakia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine United Kingdom Uzbekistan Other Europe & Eurasia 5 Iran Kuwait Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Other Middle East Algeria Egypt South Africa Other Africa Australia Bangladesh China China Hong Kong SAR India Indonesia Japan Malaysia New Zealand Pakistan 0 Philippines Singapore South Korea 1970 1980 1990 2000 Taiwan Thailand Other Asia Pacific