Longnow 16 Jan 09
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

Longnow 16 Jan 09

on

  • 13,211 views

 

Statistics

Views

Total Views
13,211
Views on SlideShare
5,120
Embed Views
8,091

Actions

Likes
3
Downloads
116
Comments
0

11 Embeds 8,091

http://blog.wattzon.com 8033
http://www.ashwinupadhyaya.com 18
http://ashwinupadhyaya.com 16
http://www.wattzon.com 9
http://www.google.com 6
http://translate.baiducontent.com 3
https://twitter.com 2
http://www.google.co.uk 1
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com 1
https://www.google.com 1
http://www.slideshare.net 1
More...

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

Longnow 16 Jan 09 Longnow 16 Jan 09 Presentation Transcript

  • The Long Now Foundation : January 02009 Climate Change Recalculated Saul Griffith. Makanipower.com Wattzon.com
  • Would you prefer a glass of wine every evening, or an annual business trip?
  • would you prefer your taxes spent on schools or roads?
  • would you prefer a hot shower every day or eating meat?
  • you have heard about... climate change
  • you have heard about... carbon footprint
  • you have heard about... energy independence
  • let us have a look at these things as though: we are reconciling the short term us... with the 10000 year future of us...
  • and hopefully we'll answer two questions... how do your personal actions effect climate? can there be a global solution for climate change?
  • a big pile of numbers to show you that... climate change and energy issues are aesthetic issues. what is a quality life?
  • Two stories : one global, one personal.
  • HOW MUCH POWER DO I USE?
  • Energy is measured in Joules (J) Lifting an apple from the ground to the table. ~ 1 Joule
  • Power is measured in Watts (W). 1 Watt = 1 Joule / second Lifting one apple from the ground to the table each second. ~ 1 Watt.
  • 40 apples per second from the ground to the table = 40 Watts.
  • Running this Apple laptop takes 40 Watts.
  • Power 100 W = You, sitting there, reading. 1000 W 1kW = Domestic kettle 1 kilowatt (kW) = 1000 W 1000000 W 1MW = Diesel locomotive / wind turbine. 1 megawatt (MW) = 1000 kW 1000000000 W 1GW = Hoover dam 1 gigawatt (GW) = 1000 MW 1000000000000 W 1TW = World power consumption, 1890 1 terawatt (TW) = 1000 GW
  • "Watts per always" - your life in light bulbs. 100W A 12,000 Watt lifestyle is 120 x 100 watt light bulbs burning permanently. ( Or 920 Compact Fluorescents )
  • Why watts ? Allows you to compare activities on different timescales. Allows you to consider non-carbon effects of using so much power. If you do something yearly (like fly 105,000 miles), it contributes: 168,207 kilometers 1 year 1.40 megajoules Joules 1 year � 31,536,000 seconds � 1 kilometer � 7,462 second = 7,462 Watts If you do something monthly (like your electricity bill), it contributes: 122 kilowatt ·hours 1 month 3.6 megajoules Joules 1 month � 2,952,000 seconds � 1 kilowatt · hour � 170 second = 170 Watts If you do something daily (like drink 1 Energy drink), it contributes: 1 energy drink 1 day 7.84 megajoules Joules 1 day � 86,400 seconds � 1 bottle � 90 second = 90 Watts Yearly things + Monthly things + Daily things = your lifestyle in watts.
  • Flight Saul Griffith in 2007: 112,000 Miles 7,992 Watts equivalent. 18.500 kg CO2
  • Driving 4500 Mi/yr 10,000 Miles Honda Insight 1,500 Watts 55 mpg 2000 Mi/yr 81.82 gallons spent other (avg. rental) 9,900,000,000 J Seattle 16 mpg 313.71 Watts 125 gallons spent 15,125,000,000 J 479.28 Watts Boston 1000 Mi/yr Dune Buggy (VW) Chicago New York 25 mpg San Francisco 40 gallons spent 4,840,000,000 J 1200 Mi/yr 153.37 Watts Toyota Tacoma 18 mpg 66.67 gallons spent 8,066,666,667 J 255.62 Watts San Diego Tucson Atlanta Jacksonville 700 Mi/yr Toyota Hilux 17 mpg 600 Mi/yr Key West 41.18 gallons spent Sprinter Diesel 4,982,352,941 J 20 mpg 157.88 Watts 30 gallons spent 4,128,000,000 J 130.81 Watts
  • Domestic energy consumption 2 person stand alone house, 2br, Mission District, SF. Home Gas and Electric breakdown625W 1400 GAS shower GAS cooking GAS heat ELEC fridge 1200 ELEC computer ELEC toothbrush ELEC phone chargers ELEC laptop1 1000 ELEC laptop2 ELEC stereo ELEC lights&other 800 600 400 200 0 JANUARY FEBRUARY NOVEMBER JULY DECEMBER AUGUST SEPTEMBER MAY JUNE MARCH OCTOBER APRIL
  • Work Power Consumption... 18,400² Foot Office, 40 People sharing 1250 Gas : 201 Watts Electric : 411 Watts 1000 750 500 250 0 Jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec
  • My 2007 diet. 772 Watts Milk Cheese: 30 W Wine: 76 W Vegetables: 100 Farming: 100 W Transportation: 120 W Fertilizer: 125 W Meat & Fish: 221 W
  • Society - my 1/300 000 000th share of the US infrastructure... US Military: 94 W US Nuclear protection: 50 W US Government: 18 W NASA: 1.1 W USPS: 5 W * Published fuel and electricity numbers.
  • Insight up gy ick g bu ne ap Honda du ot en toy g wa ks er H l d dd trip er vo or la e rs ov re e y k nc ep ast tre we ec la r hisl ke io st s po honpatuolletlbow ot w p AS ns m istm tma te uin na r ex m alch hrisrry g alu tur ialc ca eba ic e c tif as n ar uitc fere lla st ne s n re e co mb lChpho boo chrina u oo sk m ru llp ers intr snwuga ce bb pa ndgklmkrkr n taateo e laean ictenn vinlebne inlscmo n c n eta nstaakp Fr b ing oo mduhuspp r itc s sp wosec apee pp baok g r upe ceixc so yc K ll kit u in s fr r b eesappk nn e etep intchffh Wmoleaaic h id wcttn odbcueitc ma ed tele tao repin sb kec slaeinn tesareg tus hfo lagcteolo tt aoelaceif e ol sg te d peeurif laoo pdkleten k t le sbs ll aabmns sprlaskan Greope gulop creotanif o o b rk eproeiv o P sto ed TR T de ba somp es pr es coo c plantp pla ots rge ofab ing ntpotla s irdin ble tin gk din a ta ch ing itc he n sit g fallow oorru h nc So pi nfl f be l e ole he ram wo oksfutonf ame Boodenlfutonfr ss ttre nma wo eta m futo ChairWood) ( er it beltleath crocsshoes Table oolSu MenW opants menso t cks carg llaredar rtst- shirat t ensco erwe nshocks woolh ebrimha d me shir tm enunhoes so wid Shoes m rs oots leathe Hat et uggb s len pant Woocoatjack lls per oachveralls overa axedpa Watch-C il clingwrapsaran w erroll co fo toiletpap aluminum d er washingpow detergent teacandle Book conditionerthpaste sheetsofpaper too framed se rt Papercup a hampoo (mhbrush l) CDjewelca e ardgam Toot lfball bo ll tennisba go lftee go d tennisrac ket surfb cycle oar r motogerbag n esse le lephantet BikemGolfClubinflaotabrcyeclehelm s rs m to e Pap ws Ne e s in an az e ag in ar Re M o uter gaz m ly a th m m n ee p on ta rly m Dr Oveerahine cr ns Co frig ac p r r tio te n to p ec m Ca e kto oj ar pr on es g t qu Ph D p s PHYSICAL STUFF ye cle La ile ob hin M y as Bic House W ~2500 Watts
  • SFO TO LHR 41 W W W 60 LHR- 3 W 4 SF 30 TS 29 SFO ER ATL HE 3 O-A H TH DS LIG ED SFO L-A -ATL 60 W O - SF A TL ET 1 W W NT O O M R RE -CP A 4 OU S- 410 W O1 K- ST ASA CE 4 W 160 AT O 0W H5 CC G TI Y L- G N S SF -H G 4W N-A W 10 O JU ER W W 3 O N N ER W 3 W NO -O 57 E H S A 1 S IR W OT S LE FA 0 SF K W 5 W O- 56 H 2 IC AF E H H - IC BO BO 0 SA .VE NS S- S W G V A RV W SF 21 O ER -SE 0 OA O 21 0 W G T L 10 OA K DC -DC 8W VE STA E K-O 0W NS RD -M -O AK 18 0 DS 0 W PO FE ON 18 W OO 34 DE -QU EG N QU E-D E2 0W HIT ATIO 0 W TW 10 W UC 6 -SF W ED ANCE O2 BUR-O SFO 10 W FIN -JFK W AK 20 W OAK-BUR 200 680 20 W JFK-SFO ARE W LTHC 200 W HEA SFO-BO W BOS-ORD S 210 W TION 110 70 W RECREA ORD-SFO 14 0W HOUSE 260 W SFO-JFK 200 W JFK-SFO 200 W 230 W MISCSTU SJC-SJO FF1000 W 0W JC 23 SJO-S 0W BOO IJ 28 KS S JC-V W WA 130 80 STE W C2 BIK DIS -SJ NE ES PO TEXT VIJ WS 6 WW SA L 9 ILES EL 18 A EC 0 W TER 1 W T 90 W TR 60 RAN W ON W SPO 1 40 CO IC S2 RTT OM D1 M PU 50 E 4 SY W 0W O- TE SF RS BO W 70 0 AT 0 CA 31 W W S RS R 0 50 0W WO -D 31 56 0W W O WO ERTI 28 O SF RK 0W AG IN 0 SF HILU 150 W 28 TE W 0W RK K HE W 0W - .F OA SHOWERS GAS 70 W 0W COOKING GAS 30 W DR RN 31 EL AT FO 100 X 16 ET O- MA 24 HT EC 20 TAXIORRENTAL 47 K-S W SF 70 SIG LIZ TER 0W TR YV OA W IC MY 2007 LIFE: ER A IN UGG A TACO PRIN 41 OTA 50 ND 0W EB GE S W TOY 17027 Watts HO DUN TOYOT AG ELEC CIDE AG PEST 0 W 0 W DOD . FO AG . CO . BE SS FF SU ER CE ILF OTHER EE LIGHTS GA TR STERE FR LAPTOP COMPU &W W I RE FRIDGE DA UE HEATIN IC R UIT 50 W S 3 2 FA AL IRY LS ME INE 20 40 TS ,V S& S ELEC 8 O ELEC AT 80 ELEC 7 EG AN GGS W 10 6 TER EL ELEC 1 G GAS 4 GR TS 9 ELEC 3 &E W DO &N W AIN U IL 0W W S 1W EC 10 16 0W 10 00 W W 0W 0W 0W W W
  • Me
  • Me and my ladyfriend
  • 1000 people
  • 1 000 000 People
  • Per capita power use 2003 Per Capita Energy Use 2003 30 16 Belgium 17 Saudi Arabia 18 Singapore 19 Gibraltar 20 Netherlands 21 Oman 1 Qatar 22 France 23 Russian Federation 25 2 Iceland 24 New Zealand 3 United Arab Emirates 25 Korea, Rep 26 Czech Rep 4 Bahrain 27 Germany 28 Austria 5 Luxembourg 29 Japan 6 Netherlands Antilles 30 United Kingdom 31 Denmark 7 Kuwait 32 Ireland 20 8 Trinidad and Tobago 33 Switzerland 34 Estonia 9 Canada 35 Turkmenistan 36 Slovenia 10 United States 37 Slovakia 11 Brunei Darussalam 38 Kazakhstan 39 Cyprus kilowatts 12 Finland 40 Spain 41 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 13 Norway 15 42 Israel 14 Sweden 43 Italy 44 Ukraine 15 Australia 45 Greece 46 Belarus 47 Lithuania 48 South Africa 49 Hungary 50 Bulgaria US Average. 10 5 Global Average 0 10 20 30 40 50
  • World Power Consumption by Country, 1965-2005 USA Canada Mexico Argentina 15 Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Peru Venezuela Other S. & Cent. America Austria Azerbaijan Belarus Belgium & Luxembourg Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland 10 Republic of Ireland Italy Kazakhstan Lithuania Netherlands Norway Poland terawatts Portugal Romania Russian Federation Slovakia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine United Kingdom Uzbekistan Other Europe & Eurasia 5 Iran Kuwait Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Other Middle East Algeria Egypt South Africa Other Africa Australia Bangladesh China China Hong Kong SAR India Indonesia Japan Malaysia New Zealand Pakistan 0 Philippines Singapore South Korea 1970 1980 1990 2000 Taiwan Thailand Other Asia Pacific
  • Energy (TW) 0 1 2 3 4 5 Ele c tri city Ge n Tra n sp ort ati on Ind us try Co ok ing Air H ea tin Ind g us tri Ag a lS ric tea ult m ure &F ore str y Wa te rH ea ti ng Oil Lig Bio ht Coal Tidal Wind Solar Hydro Dis Nuclear tri bu tio n Geothermal Natural Gas Mi nin g 2007 Energy Consumption - Primary use by fuel type
  • Which has led to this problem : 380 370 360 CO2 Level (ppm) CO concentration (ppm) 350 340 Mauna Loa Direct Measurement Hawaii 330 320 Ice Core 20 year Average Law Dome Antarctica 310 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 year Year
  • Cumulative National CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cumulative national CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning, ce- ment manufacture, andand Gas Flaring: 1751-2004 Cement Manufacture, gas flaring: 1751-2004 90 80 1 UNITED_STATES_OF_AMERICA 16 AUSTRALIA 17 CZECHOSLOVAKIA 2 USSR 18 BELGIUM 3 CHINA_MAINLAND 19 SPAIN 4 GERMANY_COMBINE 20 BRAZIL 5 JAPAN_COMBINE 21 REPUBLIC_OF_KOREA 70 6 UNITED_KINGDOM 22 NETHERLANDS 23 ISLAMIC_REPUBLIC_OF_IRAN giga metric tons of carbon 7 YUGOSLAVIA_COMBINE 24 SAUDI_ARABIA 8 FRANCE_INCLUDING_MONACO 25 INDONESIA 26 ROMANIA 9 INDIA 27 DEMOCRATIC_PEOPLES_REPUBLIC_OF_KOREA 60 10 CANADA 28 ARGENTINA 11 POLAND 29 VENEZUELA 12 RUSSIAN_FEDERATION 30 TURKEY 31 UKRAINE 13 ITALY_INCLUDING_SAN_MARINO 32 TAIWAN 14 SOUTH_AFRICA 33 AUSTRIA 50 15 MEXICO 34 SWEDEN 35 HUNGARY 36 THAILAND 37 DENMARK 38 ALGERIA 39 BULGARIA 40 40 EGYPT 41 GREECE 42 SWITZERLAND 43 NIGERIA 44 MALAYSIA 45 FINLAND 30 46 UNITED_ARAB_EMIRATES 47 KAZAKHSTAN 48 IRAQ 49 COLOMBIA 50 PAKISTAN 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50
  • Out of equilibrium Atmosphere Atmosphere ~700 GtC to Ocean +2 / yr 2 GtC/year Soils Carbon to 3000 GtC Atmosphere 8 GtC/year Oceans 40000 GtC Accessible Fossil Fuels 1600 GtC Vegetation 700 GtC
  • Temperature Changes around the world in the last quarter of the 20th century Trends in °C per decade -1 - 0.8 - 0.6 - 0.4 - 0.2 0 + 0.2 + 0.4 + 0.6 + 0.8 +1 -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 +0.2 +0.4 +0.6 +0.8 +1
  • What temperature do we choose? ? ? ? ? ?
  • Choose your target 1000 ppm 750 ppm 6.0 650 5.5 ppm 5.0 Temperature Rise, degrees Celsius 4.5 550 Entire cities and countries lost to sea level Temperature Rise, degrees Celsius. ppm 4.0 500 ppm 3.5 20-50% Species Lost 3.0 450 1-4 Billion people face water shortages ppm 2.5 400 15-40% Species Lost ppm 2.0 2.0 1.5 10% Species Lost 1.0 0.5 Scenarios A1B 0.0 A1T A1FI -0.5 A2 B1 -1.0 B2 IS92a 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
  • "Business As Usual" : 800+ ppm Stern Report / EU : 550 ppm This material : 450 ppm Where we are today : 385 ppm James Hansen, NASA : 350 ppm ! Pre - Industrial : 290 ppm
  • What temperature did I choose? 650 550 450ppm +2oC (year2000) 368 Preindustrial 280
  • What is implied by a 450ppm CO² target? Atmosphere Atmosphere 600 Gt. to Ocean +0 1-2 GtC/year Soils Carbon to 3000 Gt. Atmosphere 1-2 GtC/year Oceans 40000 Gt. Accessible Fossil Fuels 1600 Gt Vegetation 700 Gt.
  • Effect on CO2 PPM 1 Billion Tons Carbon +0.26 Terawatt Years (COAL) +0.198 Terawatt Years (OIL) +0.155 Terawatt Years (GAS) +0.112 60 PPM to go (to 450)... around 400 TW years of fossil fuel burning... 40 years at 10TW, 20 years at 20TW ...
  • How much power from that much carbon? 1-2 GtC means around: 2.5 TW - if its all coal 4.4 TW - if its all gas 3.2 TW - if its all oil *30 TW - nuclear is not entirely CO2 free... 2º C (3.6º F) → 450 ppm → 2-3 TW from carbon fuels.
  • Energy production Humanity Units shown in Terawatts (TW) 18 TW Gas: 3.2 Coal: 3.6 Nuclear: 1 Hydro: 0.36 Wind: 0.06 Solar: 0.016 Geothermal: 0.03 Tidal: 0.0005 Plants: 5.2 Oil:5
  • Global Energy Consumption Global Exergy Consumption Humanity Units shown in Terawatts Units shown in Terawatts (TW) 18 TW Agriculture 3.8 Electricity 1.7 Manufacturing & Industrial 3 Forestry 3 Other 2.5 Chemicals Metabolism Lighting Heating Road Refrigeration & Cooking 2.3 & Rail 2.1
  • that wont last 10000 years... what other options are there ?
  • Global consumption Sources of renewable energy. 16 TW 85 000 TW Surface Solar 3.5 TW Tidal 41 000 TW 38 000 TW 31 000 TW Evaporation Land & Water heating Atmospheric Absorption 300 TW Hydro Clouds 3600 TW Wind 25 TW Hydro Land 32 TW Geo thermal 7.2 TW Hydro Rivers 62 TW Ocean surface waves 90 TW Photosynthesis 25 TW Ocean 65 TW Land 3 TW Coastal waves 100 TW Ocean thermal gradient
  • What is the challenge? Current Demand: 16 TW Fossil Fuel: 3 TW Existing non-carbon: 1.5 TW New Clean Energy: 16-(3+1.5)= 11.5 TW
  • 2033 Energy Mix 15 TW Units shown in Terawatts (TW) (carbon-free) Nuclear: 3 ear Other 2 Geothermal New Nu cl Biofuels: 0.5 0.5 TW Ne w W 3T s uel 2 lF ssi Fossil Fuels: 2TW Fo Existing Nuclear: 1 other m w Ge Ne 2TW Existing Hydro / cl ear Renewables: 0.5 Exi sting Nu 1TW s a ble enew /R Photo Voltaic ydr H o ng 0. Ex isti 5TW Solar 2 Ne wW ind ola r 2TW S ltaic o-Vo ma l hot r Solar Thermal: 2 Wind:2 P The w Ne olar 2TW wS Ne 2TW
  • that looks workable... what do we have to build?
  • 2 TW New Photo Voltaic Photo Voltaic 100m² 100m² 100m² ² ² 100m m² 100m m ² ² m² 0m 100 100 m² m² 0 10 ² 00 10 0m 0 ² m 10 1 ² 0 m 10 ² 10 m 0 ² ² 0 10 m 10 m 0 . 0 10 sec ² ² 10 0m m 1 00 m² 10 m² 1 00 00 1 1 ² ² 0m 0m 10 10 m² m² 100 100 ² ² 100m 100m 100m² 100m² 100m² 100m² 100 m² of solar cells 100m² 100m² ² 100m 100m ² every second for the next 100 100 m m ² 25 years. 15% efficiency, ² 10 10 0 0 m² m² 10 10 0 0 m² good sitting. m² 10 10 0 0 10 m m 10 ² ² 0 0 m m 10 ² 10 ² 0 1 0 m 10 00 m 1 ² 10 00 0 ² m 10 10 m ² 100 0 100 m² ² 100m 0m 100m m² 100m² 100m² 100m² 0m² m² ² ² m ² ²
  • 2 TW New Solar Thermal Solar Thermal 50m² 50 m ² 50 m ² ² ² 50 m ² 50 m ² 50 m 50 m m² m² ² 50 m² m 50 ² 50 m ² 50 m 50 ² 50 m ² m 0 ² ² 0 . 5 m sec m 5 0 0 5 ² ² 5 0m 1 m 50 5 m² m² 50 50 m² m² 50 50 ² ² 50 m 50 m ² ² 50 m 50 m 50 m ² 50 m ² 50m² 50 m ² 50m² 50 m ²  25 years 50 m² of solar thermal ² 50 m 50 m ² mirrors every second for 50 m 50 m ² ² 50 the next 25 years. 30% 50 m² m² 50 50 m² m² 50 efficiency, well sited. 50 m m 5 ² ² 5 0 0 m m ² 5 ² 5 0 0 m 50 50 m ² 50 ² m 50 m 50 ² 50 m² ² 50 m m² 50 m 50 m 50 m m² 50 m ² 50 m ² 50m² m² ² ² ² ²
  • 2 TW New Wind Wind ter er met me Dia Dia m m 100 100 er et er et am Di am Di m 0 m 10 0 10 . 6 min 100m Diameter 100m Diameter 10 10 0 12 3MW wind turbines in m m 0 Di great locations every hour. Di am am et et er er Or one 100m diameter 100 100 m m Dia Dia turbine every 5 minutes… me met ter er
  • 3 TW New Nuclear Nuclear March SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 1x 3GW Nuclear plant every 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 week for the next 25 years. 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
  • 2 TW Geothermal Geothermal March SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 3x 100MW steam turbines 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 every day for 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 next 25 years. 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
  • 0.5 TW carbon (net zero) biofuels?. Biofuel 1250m² 1250m² 1250m² m² m² ² ² 0m 0m ² 1250 1250 m² 0m m² 125 m² 125 50 25 ² 50 0m 50 ² 12 m 1 12 ² 50 12 5 m ² m 12 0 ² 12 0 25 ² m 25 m 0 1 0 25 ² . 1 25 sec ² 0m m 1 1 50 5 12 m² 12 m² 1 50 50 12 12 m² ² 50 0m 12 1 25 m² ² 250 0m 125 1 m² m² 1250 1250 1250m² 1250m² 1250m² 1250m² 1250 m² or 1 olympic 1250m² 1250m² m² 1250 1250 m² swimming pool of algae 125 125 0m 0m ² every second for the next ² 12 12 50 50 m² m² 12 12 50 50 12 m² 25 years. 12 m² 50 50 1 1 25 m 25 m ² ² 0 0 1 m m 1 25 ² ² 25 12 12 0 0 12 m 50 12 m 50 ² 12 12 ² 5 m 125 50 125 m 0m 1250 ² 50 1250 1250m² 1250m² 1250m² 50 ² m² ² m² 0m m² 0m m² m² ² ²
  • Is that industrially possible? what should Detroit do?
  • 110 bn cans / year... = 200 GW solar thermal / year.
  • 9 Nokia phones every second. Nokia + INTEL + AMD + + for solar PV?
  • GM = 1 car every 2 minutes. GM + FORD = 1 wind turbine every 5 minutes?
  • Retooling for WWII. More than 300 000 aircraft were built in the US between 1939 and 1945.
  • GLOBAL POWER CONSUMPTION, TW 15 10 10 TW in last 40 years! 5 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
  • Awesome. We can do it. Long Thinking thinks ahead...
  • EARTH’S SOLAR FLUX = 2 1270 Watts / m . ATMOSPHERIC LOSSES. DAY / NIGHT LOSSES. CLOUD / WEATHER LOSSES. GEOGRAPHY (LATITUDE). TERRESTRIAL SOLAR FLUX = 2 90-300 Watts / m . TECHNOLOGY EFFICIENCY 10 - 40%. PV : 50% CST : 25% LAND AREA COVERAGE ACTUAL SOLAR PHOTONS TO ELECTRONS = 10-20 Watts / m2.
  • 100m diameter = 3MW rated. 33% capacity factor = 0.33 x 3 = 1MW Spacing = 10 diameters apart. Actual power density by land area = 1MW / 1km2 1-2W/m2 of land.
  • Hydroelectricity: Lake Mead : 639km2 Hoover Dam : 1860MW 1860000000 / 639 000 000 = 2.9 W/m2
  • Bio-fuels Lake Mead : 639km2 Algae, 3% efficient photo-conversion. 2-3 W/m2
  • Land area by country represented as scaled stripes
  • Land area per person in USA 160 140 equal land area per person globally represented as square Land area per person globally 120 100 meters 80 60 Average US of land required land required for watts by solar sauls squarecitizen square of for his watts generatedgenerated by solar 40 Land area required to produce my power consumption with solar. Land area for average US citizen by solar. 20 global average persons square of land to generate their energy with renewables Land area for average global citizen by solar. 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 meters
  • Choose carefully. Quickly. Possible. We must be wise.
  • Put yourself back into the picture : 16 000 000 000 000 Watts = 2 400 Watts per person. 6 650 000 000 People
  • SFO TO LHR 41 W W W 60 LHR- 3W 4 SF 30 TS 29 SF O ER ATL HE 3 O-A H TH DS LIG ED SFO L-A -ATL O -SF A TL T NT O W W O EE 1 M R -CP A 4 OU S- 410 W O1 K- TR A 160 AT O E W 0W S AS H5 CC G IC 4 60 L- N G ST GY S -H W N-A W 10 JU ER W FO 4 W O W 3 N N ER W 3 W NO -O 57 E H S A 1 S IR W OT S LE FA 0 SF K W 5 W 56 2 C F BO O- BO 0 HH A E HI S-A ICE W S V V S- S G V. AN R W SF 21 O ER -SE 0 OA O 21 0 W G T L 10 OA K DC -DC V E TA E K-O 0W 8W S NS RD -O 18 S PO FE -M ON AK 18 W 0 OD 40 W E -QU GO 3 D QU E-D E2 0W ITE ION TW 10 WH UCAT 60 W -SF W ED ANCE O2 BUR-O SFO 10 W FIN AK 20 -JFK 80 W W OAK-BUR 200 RE 6 20 W JFK-SFO W HCA 200 W H EALT SFO-BO W BOS-ORD S 210 W TION 110 70 W RECREA ORD-SFO 14 0W HOUSE 260 W SFO-JFK 200 W JFK-SFO 200 W 230 W MISCSTU SJC-SJO FF1000 W 0W JC 23 SJO-S 0W BOO IJ 28 KS S JC-V W WA 130 80 STE W C2 BIK DIS -SJ NE ES PO TEXT VIJ WS 6 WW SA L 9 ILES EL 18 A EC 0 W TER 1 W T 90 W TR 60 RAN W ON W SPO 1 40 CO IC S2 RTT OM D1 M PU 50 E 4 SY W 0W O- TE SF RS BO W 70 0 AT 0 CA 31 W W S RS R 0 50 0W WO -D 31 56 W W O WO ERTI 28 FO SF RK 0W AG IN 0 80 HILU 150 W -S TE W 0W RK AK HE W 0W O2 .F SHOWERS GAS 70 W 0W COOKING GAS 30 W DR RN 31 -O EL AT 100 X 16 ET F O MA 24 HT EC 20 TAXIORRENTAL 47 K-S W SF 70 SIG LIZ TER 0W TR YV OA W IC MY 2007 LIFE ER A IN UGG A TACO PRIN 41 OTA 50 ND 0W EB GE S W TOY 17027 W HO DUN TOYOT AG ELEC CIDE AG PEST 0 W 0 W DOD . FO AG . CO (pre tax) . BE SS FF SU ER CE ILF OTHER EE LIGHTS GA TR STERE FR LAPTOP COMPU &W W I RE FRIDGE DA UE HEATIN IC R UIT 50 W S 3 2 FA AL IRY LS ME INE 20 40 TS ,V S& S ELEC 8 O ELEC AT 80 ELEC 7 EG AN GGS W 10 6 TER EL ELEC 1 G GAS 4 GR TS 9 ELEC 3 &E W DO &N W AIN U IL 0W W S 1W EC 10 16 0W 10 00 W W 0W 0W 0W W W
  • My New Life LOCAL STEP 4 My New Life air travel: 983 2291 Watts car: 258 food: 376 stuff: 254 bike ferry: 158 home heating: 25 home electric: 90 work heat: 25 work electric: 100 society: 22
  • Saul Griffith. 2010: LOCAL STEP 4 13,777 Mi. 2,000 kg CO2 My New Life Saul Griffith. 2010 : 13,777 Miles. 983 Watts Watts 2,000 kg CO2 983 equivalent. Previous Air Travel
  • Saul's new driving habits LOCAL STEP 4 My New Life 258 Watts Previous Driving 6 Trips / year in-Laws, Sebastopol Hybrid Honda 55 MPG 2 Trips / Month Alameda Hybrid Honda 55 MPG 1 Trips / Month Mountain View Diesel Sprinter 18 MPG 2 Trips / year Waddell Creek, Surfing Dune Buggy 25 MPG
  • Saul’s new life LOCAL STEP 4 My New Life 376 Watts Previous Food Milk Cheese: 15 W 772 Watts Fertilizer: 31 W Meat & Fish: 32 W Wine: 38 W Farming: 50 W Transportation: 60 W Vegetables: 150 W
  • Saul's stuff, old life vs. new life LOCAL STEP 4 My New Life 1/10th as much stuff lasting 10 times as long. Old stuff: 2500 W New stuff: 250 W 369
  • Insight up gy ick g bu ne ap Honda du ot en toy g wa ks er H l d dd trip er vo or la e rs ov re e y k nc ep ast tre we ec la r hisl ke io st s po honpatuolletlbow ot w p AS ns m istm tma te uin na r ex m alch hrisrry g alu tur ialc ca eba ic e c tif as n ar uitc fere lla st ne s n re e co mb lChpho boo chrina u oo sk m ru llp ers intr snwuga ce bb pa ndgklmkrkr n taateo e laean ictenn vinlebne inlscmo n c n eta nstaakp Fr b ing oo mduhuspp r itc s sp wosec apee pp baok g r upe ceixc so yc K ll kit u in s fr r b eesappk nn e etep intchffh Wmoleaaic h id wcttn odbcueitc ma ed tele tao repin sb kec slaeinn tesareg tus hfo lagcteolo tt aoelaceif e ol sg te d peeurif laoo pdkleten k t le sbs ll aabmns sprlaskan Greope gulop creotanif o o b rk eproeiv o P sto ed TR T de ba somp es pr es coo c plantp pla ots rge ofab ing ntpotla s irdin ble tin gk din a ta ch ing itc he n sit g fallow oorru h nc So pi nfl f be l e ole he ram wo oksfutonf ame Boodenlfutonfr ss ttre nma wo eta m futo ChairWood) ( er it beltleath crocsshoes Table oolSu MenW opants menso t cks carg llaredar rtst- shirat t ensco erwe nshocks woolh ebrimha d me shir tm enunhoes so wid Shoes m rs oots leathe Hat et uggb s len pant Woocoatjack lls per oachveralls overa axedpa Watch-C il clingwrapsaran w erroll co fo toiletpap aluminum d er washingpow detergent teacandle Book conditionerthpaste sheetsofpaper too framed se rt Papercup a hampoo (mhbrush l) CDjewelca e ardgam Toot lfball bo ll tennisba go lftee go d tennisrac ket surfb cycle oar r motogerbag n esse le lephantet BikemGolfClubinflaotabrcyeclehelm s rs m to e Pap ws Ne e s in an az e ag in ar Re M o uter gaz m ly a th m m n ee p on ta rly m Dr Oveerahine cr ns Co frig ac p r r tio te n to p ec m Ca e kto oj ar pr on es g t qu Ph D p s PHYSICAL STUFF ye cle La ile ob hin M y as Bic House W ~2500 Watts
  • What about products?
  • Consumption Facts Container Mass 1.58oz (44.9g) Components per container 3 Embodied Energy Per Container Total 4,609,420 Joules PETE 38.81g 3,962,400 Joules HDPE 4.83g 497,500 Joules Cellulosic 1.34g 149,520 Joules Recycle rate 23% Landfill rate 43% Energy recovery rate 16% Lost to environmental waste 18% Personal Energy Footprint % Daily Value* Total 4.54% Transport (avg.estimated) 0.69% Manufacture 0.46% Embodied Energy 2.67% Refrigeration (avg.estimated) 0.71% * Personal Energy Footprint is based on a recommended 2000 Watt lifestyle. The average US consumer has a 11400 Watt lifestyle. ! Consuming this product daily is equivalent to increasing your energy footprint by 90 Watts. Also contains per bottle Plasticizers 43mg† Estrogen 0.12mg† Carcinogenic Dye 0.19mg† † Safe daily values not yet established.
  • we forgot... a couple more things...
  • We have to turn off the current CO2 emitters.
  • and stop deforestation...
  • US energy consumption (TeraWatts) 3.5 Sep.11.2001. 3 Recession. 2.5 Oil Crises. 2 1.5 Depression. 1 0.5 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 "The Game Plan" slideset release 1.01, March 21 2008 67
  • 2255 Watt thinking: 100 mpg ? 20 Miles per day. 500Watts.
  • 55 100 mph kph
  • What to do ourselves If we do what we want to do already, the goals can be achieved: Eat less and more healthily, Exercise more, Spend more time with my family, Live closer together, Spend less time commuting, Less business travel, Have higher quality, better designed products. Breathe cleaner air, Drink cleaner water.
  • wattzon.com Measure what is measureable, make measure- able what is not. - Galileo