Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050      Catalyzing Action: EU Sustainable Lifestyles Roadmap and      Action Plan t...
http://www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu/fileadmin/images/content/D4.1_FourFutureScenarios.pdf                                ...
Local Loops is a scenario in which a radical energy crisis forces societies to re-evaluate fundamentally the foundations o...
Peak-oilgame-changerRediscoveryof local resourcesLocal turnCraftsman attitude                     www.sustainable-lifestyl...
Peak-oilgame-changerRediscoveryof local resources                           Open kitchens promoting                       ...
Peak-oilgame-changerRediscoveryof local resourcesLocal turnCraftsman attitude                     www.sustainable-lifestyl...
!Peak-oil                 2023: Oil prices continue to rise beyond belief,game-changer                         pushing gre...
Peak-oilgame-changerRediscoveryof local resourcesLocal turnCraftsman attitude                     www.sustainable-lifestyl...
Peak-oilgame-changer                     I love living in myRediscovery          Danish town. Weof local resources   haven...
Peak-oilgame-changerRediscoveryof local resourcesLocal turnCraftsman attitude                     www.sustainable-lifestyl...
Peak-oilgame-changerRediscoveryof local resourcesLocal turn                     Green doorkeepers                     are ...
Peak-oilgame-changerRediscoveryof local resourcesLocal turnCraftsman attitude                     www.sustainable-lifestyl...
Pandemic technologyMeritocracy                         Human-centrism              Endemic technology                     ...
Why backcasting scenarios?                             www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Others                         900 kg          Leisure time          1500 kgProductconsumption2600 kg                     ...
Others                         900 kg          Leisure time          1500 kgProductconsumption2600 kg                     ...
Others                         900 kg          Leisure time          1500 kgProduct                                       ...
Others                                900 kg                 Leisure time                 1500 kg       Product           ...
Others                                900 kg                 Leisure time                 1500 kg       Product           ...
Others                                                                                 900 kg                             ...
Others                                                                                    900 kg                          ...
Others                                                                                    900 kg                          ...
Elements of disruptive change                                                                                             ...
Elements of disruptive change                                                                                             ...
Alternative future for sustainable lifestyles                                        www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Alternative futures for sustainable lifestyles                                        www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technologyMeritocracy                         Human-centrism              Endemic technology                     ...
Pandemic technologyMeritocracy                         Human-centrism              Endemic technology                     ...
Pandemic technologyMeritocracy                         Human-centrism              Endemic technology                     ...
Pandemic technologyMeritocracy                         Human-centrism              Endemic technology                     ...
Pandemic technologyMeritocracy                         Human-centrism              Endemic technology                     ...
Pandemic technologyMeritocracy                         Human-centrism              Endemic technology                     ...
Pandemic technologyMeritocracy                         Human-centrism              Endemic technology                     ...
Pandemic technologyMeritocracy                         Human-centrism              Endemic technology                     ...
Pandemic technologyMeritocracy                         Human-centrism              Endemic technology                     ...
Pandemic technologyMeritocracy                         Human-centrism              Endemic technology                     ...
Pandemic technologyMeritocracy                         Human-centrism              Endemic technology                     ...
Pandemic technologyMeritocracy                         Human-centrism               Endemic technology                    ...
Pandemic technologyMeritocracy                         Human-centrism               Endemic technology                    ...
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technologyMeritocracy                         Human-centrism              Endemic technology                     ...
Pandemic technologyMeritocracy                         Human-centrism               Endemic technology                    ...
The EuropeanGreen New DealTransparency gets  the prices rightThe upcycling economyLearning not earning
The EuropeanGreen New DealTransparency gets  the prices rightThe upcycling economy                                     “Ed...
The EuropeanGreen New DealTransparency gets  the prices rightThe upcycling economyLearning not earning
The EuropeanGreen New Deal                        I eat only food that’s hyper-                        efficient in terms ...
The EuropeanGreen New DealTransparency gets  the prices rightThe upcycling economyLearning not earning
The EuropeanGreen New DealTransparency gets  the prices rightThe upcycling economy                        I returned my ol...
The EuropeanGreen New DealTransparency gets  the prices rightThe upcycling economyLearning not earning
In the scenario Singular Super Champions Europe has made    the leap to a new type of sustainable, competitive and        ...
Pandemic technologyMeritocracy                         Human-centrism              Endemic technology                     ...
The 3rd industrial   revolutionUbitech economyBetter work creates    well-beingWikidemocracy
The 3rd industrial    My son never buys   revolution         anything that is mass-                      produced. He want...
The 3rd industrial   revolutionUbitech economyBetter work creates    well-beingWikidemocracy
The 3rd industrial   revolutionUbitech economy                                                          Local citizenship ...
The 3rd industrial   revolutionUbitech economyBetter work creates    well-beingWikidemocracy
The 3rd industrial   revolution         Sensors and                      feedback systems                                 ...
The 3rd industrial   revolutionUbitech economyBetter work creates    well-beingWikidemocracy
Governing the Commons is a scenario mostlyin digital reality that helps people to break free from many cultural         co...
Pandemic technologyMeritocracy                         Human-centrism              Endemic technology
The system breaks downThe “We can” generation     works togetherPublic, private and people (PPP)   – the new welfare model...
The system breaks downThe “We can” generation            Mix of new active                                        “I know ...
The system breaks downThe “We can” generation     works togetherPublic, private and people (PPP)   – the new welfare model...
! The system breaks down                                       2026: In many countries governments resign                 ...
The system breaks downThe “We can” generation     works togetherPublic, private and people (PPP)   – the new welfare model...
The system breaks down                                   Health is of the highest                                   import...
The system breaks downThe “We can” generation     works togetherPublic, private and people (PPP)   – the new welfare model...
The system breaks downThe “We can” generation     works together                                                          ...
The system breaks downThe “We can” generation     works togetherPublic, private and people (PPP)   – the new welfare model...
Empathetic Communities is a scenario where Western societiesfaced a crisis they had long dreaded, and how the change turne...
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Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles in 2050

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Presentation was held in "Catalyzing Action: EU Sustainable Lifestyles Roadmap & Action Plan to 2050" conference on Nov 26th 2012, Brussels, Belgium. It presents the structure and findings of "Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops" report by Demos Helsinki and the SPREAD project partners (available in http://www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu/fileadmin/images/content/D4.1_FourFutureScenarios.pdf)

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Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles in 2050

  1. 1. Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050 Catalyzing Action: EU Sustainable Lifestyles Roadmap and Action Plan to 2050. SPREAD 2050 26-27 November 2012Aleksi NeuvonenDemos Helsinkiwww.demos.fialeksi.neuvonen@demos.fiTwitter: @leksis www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  2. 2. http://www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu/fileadmin/images/content/D4.1_FourFutureScenarios.pdf www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  3. 3. Local Loops is a scenario in which a radical energy crisis forces societies to re-evaluate fundamentally the foundations of their well-being. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  4. 4. Peak-oilgame-changerRediscoveryof local resourcesLocal turnCraftsman attitude www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  5. 5. Peak-oilgame-changerRediscoveryof local resources Open kitchens promoting local gastronomy Food lessonsLocal turn of green cooking I returned my old shoes to the shoe store and got my store credit returned byCraftsman attitude doing so. I can now get brand new shoes and I “For my husband and me, leisure it’s great for the know that means visiting one the Local Gastronomy Guilds around, who are environment as well! reinventing new recipes from local seasonal food.” www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  6. 6. Peak-oilgame-changerRediscoveryof local resourcesLocal turnCraftsman attitude www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  7. 7. !Peak-oil 2023: Oil prices continue to rise beyond belief,game-changer pushing great numbers of logistics companies out of the market or forcing them to sell their operations to the few remaining large ones. AsRediscovery a result, a small number of firms dominateof local resources transport markets in many countries, which ultimately leads to significant price increases.Local turnCraftsman attitude www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  8. 8. Peak-oilgame-changerRediscoveryof local resourcesLocal turnCraftsman attitude www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  9. 9. Peak-oilgame-changer I love living in myRediscovery Danish town. Weof local resources haven’t had to worry about buying energy in ages. I know lots of other towns that enjoy the same situation.Local turnCraftsman attitude www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  10. 10. Peak-oilgame-changerRediscoveryof local resourcesLocal turnCraftsman attitude www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  11. 11. Peak-oilgame-changerRediscoveryof local resourcesLocal turn Green doorkeepers are a specialized guild that controls, monitors and ensuresCraftsman attitude the energy efficiency of buildings and blocks. They serve as links between the neighbourhoods. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  12. 12. Peak-oilgame-changerRediscoveryof local resourcesLocal turnCraftsman attitude www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  13. 13. Pandemic technologyMeritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  14. 14. Why backcasting scenarios? www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  15. 15. Others 900 kg Leisure time 1500 kgProductconsumption2600 kg Food 7300 kg Housing: building 2400 kg Housing:Mobility (daily and tourism) electricity11 000 kg 3300 kg www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  16. 16. Others 900 kg Leisure time 1500 kgProductconsumption2600 kg Food 7300 kg Housing: building 2400 kg Housing:Mobility (daily and tourism) electricity11 000 kg 3300 kg 30 000 kg www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  17. 17. Others 900 kg Leisure time 1500 kgProduct Leisureconsumption time Others2600 kg 300 kg Food 7300 kg Product consumption Food 2500 kg Housing: building 2400 kg Mobility (daily and tourism) 2800 kg Housing: Housing:Mobility (daily and tourism) electricity building11 000 kg 3300 kg 1300 kg Housing: electricity 300 kg 30 000 kg 8000 kg www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  18. 18. Others 900 kg Leisure time 1500 kg Product Leisure consumption time Others 2600 kg 300 kg Food 7300 kg Product consumption Food 2500 kg Housing: building 2400 kg Mobility (daily and tourism) 2800 kg Housing: Housing: Mobility (daily and tourism) electricity building 11 000 kg 3300 kg 1300 kg Housing: electricity 300 kg 30 000 kg 8000 kg2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  19. 19. Others 900 kg Leisure time 1500 kg Product Leisure consumption time Others 2600 kg 300 kg Food 7300 kg Product consumption Food 2500 kg Housing: building 2400 kg Mobility (daily and tourism) 2800 kg Housing: Housing: Mobility (daily and tourism) electricity building 11 000 kg 3300 kg 1300 kg Housing: electricity 300 kg 30 000 kg 8000 kg 37 years = one generation2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  20. 20. Others 900 kg Leisure time 1500 kg Leisure time Others Product 300 kg consumption 2600 kg Food Product 7300 kgconsumption Food 2500 kg Mobility Housing: building (daily and tourism) 2400 kg 2800 kg Housing: building Housing: 1300 kg Mobility (daily and tourism) electricity 11 000 kg 3300 kg Housing: electricity 300 kg2050 2040 2030 2020 2012 www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  21. 21. Others 900 kg Leisure time 1500 kg Leisure time Others Product 300 kg consumption 2600 kg Food Product 7300 kgconsumption Food 2500 kg Mobility Housing: building (daily and tourism) 2400 kg 2800 kg Housing: building Housing: 1300 kg Mobility (daily and tourism) electricity 11 000 kg 3300 kg Housing: electricity 300 kg Assumption on sustainable lifestyles as a doable goal2050 2040 2030 2020 2012 www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  22. 22. Others 900 kg Leisure time 1500 kg Leisure time Others Product 300 kg consumption 2600 kg Food Product 7300 kgconsumption Food 2500 kg Mobility Housing: building (daily and tourism) 2400 kg 2800 kg Housing: building Housing: 1300 kg Mobility (daily and tourism) electricity 11 000 kg 3300 kg Housing: electricity 300 kg Assumption on sustainable lifestyles as a doable goal2050 2040 2030 2020 2012 www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  23. 23. Elements of disruptive change Others 900 kg Leisure time 1500 kg Leisure time Others Product 300 kg consumption 2600 kg Food Product 7300 kgconsumption Food 2500 kg Mobility Housing: building (daily and tourism) 2400 kg 2800 kg Housing: building Housing: 1300 kg Mobility (daily and tourism) electricity 11 000 kg 3300 kg Housing: electricity 300 kg Assumption on sustainable lifestyles as a doable goal2050 2040 2030 2020 2012 www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  24. 24. Elements of disruptive change Others 900 kg Leisure time 1500 kg Leisure time Others Product From quantitative decline in resource use 300 kg consumption 2600 kg Food Product 7300 kgconsumption to qualitative bits of lifestyles Food 2500 kg Mobility Housing: building (daily and tourism) 2400 kg 2800 kg Housing: building Housing: 1300 kg Mobility (daily and tourism) electricity 11 000 kg 3300 kg Housing: electricity 300 kg Assumption on sustainable lifestyles as a doable goal2050 2040 2030 2020 2012 www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  25. 25. Alternative future for sustainable lifestyles www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  26. 26. Alternative futures for sustainable lifestyles www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  27. 27. Pandemic technologyMeritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  28. 28. Pandemic technologyMeritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  29. 29. Pandemic technologyMeritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  30. 30. Pandemic technologyMeritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  31. 31. Pandemic technologyMeritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  32. 32. Pandemic technologyMeritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  33. 33. Pandemic technologyMeritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  34. 34. Pandemic technologyMeritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  35. 35. Pandemic technologyMeritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  36. 36. Pandemic technologyMeritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  37. 37. Pandemic technologyMeritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  38. 38. Pandemic technologyMeritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  39. 39. Pandemic technologyMeritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  40. 40. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  41. 41. Pandemic technologyMeritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  42. 42. Pandemic technologyMeritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  43. 43. The EuropeanGreen New DealTransparency gets the prices rightThe upcycling economyLearning not earning
  44. 44. The EuropeanGreen New DealTransparency gets the prices rightThe upcycling economy “Education is everywhere in daily life. Kids can log in Diffused learning to any object andLearning not earning embedded in everyday products access the so- School programs integrating in daily activities called ‘situated education programmes’ and learn flexibly all through the day.”
  45. 45. The EuropeanGreen New DealTransparency gets the prices rightThe upcycling economyLearning not earning
  46. 46. The EuropeanGreen New Deal I eat only food that’s hyper- efficient in terms of nutritionTransparency gets the prices right levels. Cabbages, lentils and berries are key elements in my diet. It just makes sense!The upcycling economyLearning not earning
  47. 47. The EuropeanGreen New DealTransparency gets the prices rightThe upcycling economyLearning not earning
  48. 48. The EuropeanGreen New DealTransparency gets the prices rightThe upcycling economy I returned my old shoes to the shoe store and got my store credit returned by doing so. I can now getLearning not earning brand new shoes and I know that it’s great for the environment as well!
  49. 49. The EuropeanGreen New DealTransparency gets the prices rightThe upcycling economyLearning not earning
  50. 50. In the scenario Singular Super Champions Europe has made the leap to a new type of sustainable, competitive and equitable economy. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  51. 51. Pandemic technologyMeritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  52. 52. The 3rd industrial revolutionUbitech economyBetter work creates well-beingWikidemocracy
  53. 53. The 3rd industrial My son never buys revolution anything that is mass- produced. He wants to customise it all byUbitech economy himself. I think all of his clothes are custom made.Better work creates well-beingWikidemocracy
  54. 54. The 3rd industrial revolutionUbitech economyBetter work creates well-beingWikidemocracy
  55. 55. The 3rd industrial revolutionUbitech economy Local citizenship Deliberative processes on networks local governanceBetter work creates well-beingWikidemocracy “I often log on to these participative governance programs in order to meet people with whom I share common interests. We regularly propose initiatives that later become the basis of new policies.”
  56. 56. The 3rd industrial revolutionUbitech economyBetter work creates well-beingWikidemocracy
  57. 57. The 3rd industrial revolution Sensors and feedback systems Situated advise on energy consumptionUbitech economyBetter work creates well-being “Our Active House is constantly optimising the way we live, from suggesting green cooking recipes andWikidemocracy automatically preventing food waste to implementing Energy Watcher dieting programs for the family.”
  58. 58. The 3rd industrial revolutionUbitech economyBetter work creates well-beingWikidemocracy
  59. 59. Governing the Commons is a scenario mostlyin digital reality that helps people to break free from many cultural constraints and, eventually, to reach sustainability. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  60. 60. Pandemic technologyMeritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology
  61. 61. The system breaks downThe “We can” generation works togetherPublic, private and people (PPP) – the new welfare model Communitisation of urban planning
  62. 62. The system breaks downThe “We can” generation Mix of new active “I know a lot about constructions works together Insulation based easy and cost-efficient on DIY solutions Retrofitted passive housing energy retrofitting jobs such as insulation. Our co-operative isPublic, private and people (PPP) – the new welfare model very good at these quick fixes and we enjoy sharing our knowledge with the Communitisation community.” of urban planning
  63. 63. The system breaks downThe “We can” generation works togetherPublic, private and people (PPP) – the new welfare model Communitisation of urban planning
  64. 64. ! The system breaks down 2026: In many countries governments resign and it turns out to be impossible to form new coalitions, which paralyzes national politics and public investments.The “We can” generation works togetherPublic, private and people (PPP) – the new welfare model Communitisation of urban planning
  65. 65. The system breaks downThe “We can” generation works togetherPublic, private and people (PPP) – the new welfare model Communitisation of urban planning
  66. 66. The system breaks down Health is of the highest importance in local administration and in everyThe “We can” generation works together municipality here in the Netherlands, as it is in all other European countries.Public, private and people (PPP) – the new welfare model Communitisation of urban planning
  67. 67. The system breaks downThe “We can” generation works togetherPublic, private and people (PPP) – the new welfare model Communitisation of urban planning
  68. 68. The system breaks downThe “We can” generation works together Provides “I love the fact Minor streetsPublic, private and people (PPP) transformed and complementary food resources that the old for houses and – the new welfare model divided into local neighbourhood apartments nearby streets are now gardens turned into Re-appropriation urban farming of public space regenerates plots while still local social life Communitisation maintaining of urban planning plenty of space for walking and cycling.” Former sidewalks maintained for local mobility
  69. 69. The system breaks downThe “We can” generation works togetherPublic, private and people (PPP) – the new welfare model Communitisation of urban planning
  70. 70. Empathetic Communities is a scenario where Western societiesfaced a crisis they had long dreaded, and how the change turned out to be easier and more fruitful than anyonead expected. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu

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