1. A Model to Improve the
Estimation of Baseline Sales
Dr. Kurt Jetta•TABS Group, Inc.
President & CEO

2. 2
In This Session We Will Cover…
 What is Baseline?
 How The Current Baseline
Models are Flawed
 How Bad Baseline Estimates Translate Into
Bad Business Decisions
 Introduction of TABS AccuBase™, A More
Accurate Baseline Model

3. 3
What Is Baseline?
 Definition: An estimate of retail sales for a given time period in the absence of Retailer
Promotion
 Baseline sales are offered at a significant incremental cost by the syndicated data suppliers
 A Baseline Estimate Should…
 Be relatively stable from week-to-week. No excess volatility
 Reflect structural changes in sales over time. Seasonality, Distribution
Changes, Demand Shifts
 Not be correlated to retailer promotional activity. By definition

4. 4
The Current Industry Baselines Are Flawed
 The estimates are wrong during promotion weeks (Phantom Spikes)
 The estimates during non-promotion weeks exhibit excess volatility
 The estimates are only available to their tracked universe of retailers
 The estimates are expensive to acquire

5. 5
Examples Of Bad Baselines
SYNDICATED
Avg Base Units
Non-Promo Wk 7,953
Promo Wk 13,540
% Diff +70%
TABS
Avg Base Units
Non-Promo Wk 9,035
Promo Wk 8,993
% Diff ---
Source: Syndicated Baseline and TABS AccuBase™

6. 6
Bad Baseline: EXCESS VOLATILITY…
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2009W40
2009W44
2009W48
2009W52
2010W04
2010W08
2010W12
2010W16
2010W20
2010W24
2010W28
2010W32
2010W36
2010W40
2010W44
2010W48
2010W52
2011W03
2011W07
2011W11
2011W15
2011W19
2011W23
2011W27
2011W31
2011W35
2011W39
Actual Units AccuBase Units IRI Baseline Units
60% Off
18.3
20% Off
2.5
40% Off
7.3
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
1
7
13
19
25
31
37
43
49
55
61
67
73
79
85
91
97
103
AccuBase
Syndicated
AND A 15-20% OVERSTATEMENT, IN GENERAL…
WHAT SEEMS TO BE AN INCONSEQUENTIAL
DIFFERENCE BECOMES…
A BIG DIFFERENCE UPON A
CLOSER LOOK
TRAYS: Account 25
Actual and Base Units
TRAYS: Account 25
AccuBase™ vs. Syndicated Base

7. 7
Current Baseline Availability Also an Issue
Baseline Currently
Available
Baseline Sometimes
Available or TBD Baseline Not Available
Kroger, Safeway, SuperValu, Publix
& other larger Grocers
Meijer and HEB (each exclusive to
either SymphonyIRI or Nielsen)
Whole Foods
Target Walmart (TBD) Toys ‘R Us/Babies ‘R Us
Walgreens, CVS and Rite Aid Dollar General (Nielsen only) Staples
Family Dollar GNC, Vitamin Shoppe
Any Department Store
Dollar Tree
Best Buy and Electronics

8. 8
How a Bad Baseline Estimate Effects Your Business
51,500 49,800
125,000
50,000 47,300
51,020
49,880
50,125
49,600
400,000
51,500
48,600 50,000
50,000 50,000
60,000
50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000
70,000
50,000 50,000 50,000
50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000
50,000
50,000
50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
Actual Units Bad Baseline Good Baseline
2.1 WOS
2.5 WOS
5.7 WOS
8.0 WOS

9. 9
Promotional Effectiveness Evaluation
ROI ANALYSIS – 25% OFF FEATURE
Effect of Bad Baseline On:
1.1 65,000 $195,000
$168,750
1.2 87%
1.5
75,000 $225,000
$168,750
1.3
75%
INCREM WOS INCREM UNIT INCREM REV INCREM COST ROI MARGIN NEEDED
TO B/E
Bad Baseline Good Baseline
The difference
between
breakeven and
money loser

10. 10
BOGO Feature
4.7 330,000 $990,000
$375,000
2.6 38%
8.0
350,000 $1,050,000
$375,000
2.8
36%
INCREM WOS INCREM UNIT INCREM REV INCREM COST ROI MARGIN NEEDED
TO B/E
Bad Baseline Good Baseline
Huge Impact
For Future
Planning

11. 11
Predictive Modeling
Spending
Sales Lift
Bad Baselines Underestimate:
BASELINE
BAD GOOD DIFF INDEX
Baseline UNITS 52,308 50,000 (2,308) 96
Promo LIFT 5.7 8.0 2.3 140
Incremental UNITS 245,848 350,000 104,152 142
Incremental DOLLARS $737,543 $1,050,000 $312,457 142
Spending $373,156 $475,000 $101,844 127
ROI 2.0 2.2 0.2 112
Profit (50% Margin) ($4,384) $50,000 $54,384
Why Is The Forecast Bad?
1. Phantom Spikes over-
estimate Base Sales
estimates
2. Phantom Spikes under-
estimate the Lift
associated with specific
promotional tactics
3. Lower estimated Lifts
translate into lower sales
and spending estimates
 Budget overrun
 Out-of-stocks

12. 12
TABS AccuBase™
 More Accurate than current estimates
 Eliminates Phantom Spikes
 Captures Seasonality Better
 Eliminates excess Baseline volatility (80% reduction)
 Greatly Reduces Costs
 Requires only Dollars and Unit Sales
 Does Not require expensive data gathering infrastructure
 Does Not require the standard causal information (which is also flawed at
times)
 Extends to all retailers with scanner data, not just those in the Nielsen, IRI,
SPINS universe
A Better, Cheaper, more
Extendable Alternative

13. 13
TABS AccuBase™ Example
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2-28-09
3-28-09
4-25-09
5-23-09
6-20-09
7-18-09
8-15-09
9-12-09
10-10-09
11-7-09
12-5-09
1-2-10
1-30-10
2-27-10
3-27-10
4-24-10
5-22-10
6-19-10
7-17-10
8-14-10
9-11-10
10-9-10
11-6-10
12-4-10
1-1-11
1-29-11
Ttl UNITS Base Units
YAG Current
1. NO Phantom Spikes
2. NO Volatility
3. Migrates with structural changes in Baseline (Year 2 increase)

14. 14
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
6/4
7/2
7/30
8/27
9/24
10/22
11/19
12/17
1/14
2/11
3/11
4/8
5/6
6/3
7/1
7/29
8/26
9/23
10/21
11/18
12/16
1/13
2/10
3/9
4/6
5/4
TTL UNITS TABS BASE IRI BASE
YAG 52WKS 5/25/08
Head-To-Head Comparison
TABS AccuBase™ Industry Standard
VS.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
6/4
7/2
7/30
8/27
9/24
10/22
11/19
12/17
1/14
2/11
3/11
4/8
5/6
6/3
7/1
7/29
8/26
9/23
10/21
11/18
12/16
1/13
2/10
3/9
4/6
5/4
TTL UNITS TABS BASE IRI BASE
YAG 52WKS 5/25/08
Acct X
Segment A
Acct Y
Segment B
Non-Promo Wk 7,953
Promo Wk 13,540
% Diff +70%
Avg Base Units (Synd)
Non-Promo Wk 9,035
Promo Wk 8,993
% Diff ---
Avg Base Units (TABS)

15. 15
TABS AccuBase™: Published Peer-Review Research