The Newsletter presents both an overview of European listed company valuations for the 9 months from July 2010 to March 2011 and analyses a few specific companies and deals in the European high tech space.
In this third release, the Clipperton Technology Index (CTI) is composed of the 684 technology companies listed in the UK (Main Market and AIM), France (Eurolist A, B, C and Alternext), and Germany (Regulated). We find the CTI evolution in line with the overall 20% gains of the major European indices, while NASDAQ strongly outperforms European market.
In terms of company focus, we profile Vivendi, Ubisoft Entertainment, and Delticom. We eventually zoom on the Software segment – introducing Sage and Dassault Systèmes and giving an overview of Misys acquisition of Sophis.
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Listed european technology companies
1. CTI - Hardware/Equipment 61%
CTI - IT Services 30%
CTI - Media/Web 23%
CTI - Telecom Operators 21%
Listed European Technology Companies
CTI - Software
CTI - Cleantech
17%
14% CTI - Hardware/Equipment 61%
Newsletter #3 - Jul.10-Mar.11
CTI - Life Sciences 5%
0 10 20
CTI - IT Services
30 40
CTI - Media/Web
50 60 70
23%
30%
80
CTI - Telecom Operators 21%
CTI - Software 17%
MARKET DATA HIGHLIGHT - JUL.10-MAR.11
CTI - Cleantech 14%
CTI - Life Sciences 5%
The CTI CTI - Mid Cap
(Clipperton Technology Index) is composed of the 684 technology companies listed in the UK (Main
29%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Market and- Small Cap France (Eurolist A, B, C and Alternext), and Germany (Regulated). Full details on CTI are shown
AIM),
CTI 22%
at the end of this document
CTI - Large Cap 19%
Evolution of main indices and CTI - Jul.10-Mar11
%
-13% CTI - Hardware/Equipment
NASDAQ 100 35% CTI - Mid Cap 29% 61%
Footsie 100 23% CTI - Small Cap 22% CTI - IT Services 30%
CTI 20% CTI - Large Cap CTI - Media/Web 23%
19%
CTI
DAX -9% -7%
20% CTI - Telecom Operators 21%
Dax
NASDAQ 100 CAC 40 0% 19% CTI - Software 17%
Footsie 100 1% -13% CTI - Cleantech 14%
NASDAQ 100 35%
CTI - Life Sciences 5%
CAC40 Footsie 100 23%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
CTI 20%
• European Tech stocks (CTI) in line with the overall 20% gains of the
-7%
20% DAX
major European indices 19% CAC 40
• NASDAQ strongly outperforms CTI: high valuations of US tech 29% CTI - Mid Cap
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
companies not fully tranposed in Europe 22% CTI - Small Cap
19% CTI - Large Cap
• Small Cap & Mid Cap Tech companies keep on outperforming Large
-9%
CTI
Dax
Caps 0% NASDAQ 100
1% -13% Footsie 100 NASDAQ 100
• Hardware/Equipment posts by far the best sectorial performance,
23%
35%
CAC40 Footsie 100
supported by strong positive evolution of Large Caps such as Alcatel
20% CTI
-7%
20% DAX
Lucent (+100%), Nexans (+42%) and STMicroelectronics (+37%)
19% CAC 40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
companies and deals covered
Vivendi ! p. 3 Sage ! p. 5
Ubisoft ! p. 3 Dassault Systèmes ! p. 5
Delticom ! p. 4 Misys acquires Sophis ! p. 6
1 Listed European Technology Companies – Clipperton Finance Newsletter #3 - Jul.10-Mar.11
2. 1. market data
Evolution of main indices and CTI
CTI NASDAQ 100 FOOTSIE 100 CAC 40 DAX After a stable H1-2010 period (see Newsletter # 2), all
140
Base 100 (Jul 1, 2010) indices showed a strong and steady performance to the
130
end of March 2011. In Europe, the major indices (FTSE,
CAC 40 and DAX) followed the same trends over the
120
period, gaining up to 20pts in late March 2011 compared
to early July 2010. The CTI, which was less affected by the
110
worries about Greek sovereign debt (see Newsletter # 2),
was on track with the “recovery” growth of the main
100
European indices. In the US, the NASDAQ outperformed
all European indices, especially since September 2010, and
90 posted a 35pts increase from July 2010. The NASDAQ
has seen the comeback of large IPOs while tech listings in
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CTI evolution by size of companies
CTI-LARGE CAP CTI-MID CAP CTI-SMALL CAP
140
Base 100 (Jul 1, 2010)
Large-caps (>€1bn market capitalisation) were
130 outperformed by both small-caps (market capitalisation
<€100m) and mid-caps (€100m-€1,000m). Mid-caps
120 were the standout and strongest performers and increased
29 pts in the 9 month period, whilst small-caps increased
110 21 pts and large-caps 19pts. Mid-caps, as well as small-
caps were more affected by the Sub-prime crisis during the
100 September 2008-March 2009 period (see newsletter # 1);
catch-up was overall done by the end of H1-2011.
90
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Sectors’ Evolution and Valuation
Share Price EBITDA Multiple
Evolution EV as of March 31, 2011
Ranked by performance, Hardware/Equipment, IT
Services, Media/Web and Telecom Operators
Jul.10-Mar.11 EV/EBITDA10 EV/EBITDA11
segments all went up by more than 20pts in the
Hardware/Equipment 61% 8.1x 6.7x period. Except Telecom Operators, all these
segments were already part of the best performers
Telecom Operators 21% 5.3x 5.2x
during the H1-2010 period. Hardware/Equipment
IT Services 30% 7.9x 6.9x stands out in particular, gaining 61pts supported by
strong positive evolution of a few Large-caps such as
Software 17% 10.8x 9.4x
Alcatel Lucent (+100%), Nexans (+42%) and
Media/Web 23% 6.6x 6.3x STMicroelectronics (+37%). Software, which posted
the best performance in H1-2010, relatively slowed
Cleantech 14% 8.9x 7.9x
down while Cleantech and Life Sciences are still
Life Sciences 5% 7.0x 5.1x lagging behind. EV/EBITDA average is at 6x for
European Tech companies, showing that European
Other 32% 9.5x 7.6x
valuations are not impacted by the "Tech Bubble" in
Total CTI 20% 6.9x 5.9x the US and China.
2 Listed European Technology Companies – Clipperton Finance Newsletter #3 - Jul.10-Mar.11
3. 2. companies and deals
top performers – share price evolution (Jul.10-Mar.11)
Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap
100% Alcatel Lucent 188 % Blinkx 188 % Blinkx 503% Tonna Electronique 503% Tonna El
84% Spectrics 146% 146% CEVA 216% 216%
XP Power XP Powe
CEVA
58% ITV 133% E2V Tech 133% E2V Tech 200% Cast 200% Cast
49% Schneider Electric 130%
Spir Communication Spir Communication 193% 193%
Lectra Lectra
130%
45% BT Group 121% Euro ns Scienti c 161% 161%
Egide Egide
121% Euro ns Scienti c
companies to watch
Vivendi
Share Price (€)
22
Market Cap (€bn) 25.2 unlock shareholder’s value from these
21 independent assets? 10 years after the
Share price evolution
20 (Jul.10-Mar.11)
24% 2001 bubble burst, Messier’s vision of
the integration of digital content &
19
11/10 Revenue (€bn) 29.0/28.9 telecom is somehow materializing now
18
11/10 EBITDA* (€bn) 6.9/6.7 through the smartphones penetration,
17 the iPhone & Android eco-systems and
EV/EBITDA11* 5.8x
16 100% Alcatel Lucent 100% the convergence of Internet & TV.
Alcatel Lucent
Market figures as of March 31, 2011
However, Vivendi seems to have been in
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by % of ownership 84% Spectrics idle mode for a while in terms of
Strong corporate activity at Vivendi holding company and more as a
58% ITV 58% synergies between the different units.
ITV
since the start of the year: after receiving diversified telecomSchneider Electric
49% & media group
49% This is why the Group has announced
Schneider Electric
a significant cash inflow from the sale of made of 6 profitable entities with an
45%
that Sandrine Dufour, deputy CFO,
45% BT Group BT Group
its remaining stake in NBC Universal overall moderate growth prospect This was appointed to the role of “VP
($5.8bn) and from the positive should not be enough to push the stock Innovation”, reporting to the CEO, and
outcome of the legal dispute regarding out of the €15/30 share price funnel “responsible for strengthening the drive
Elektrim in Poland (€1.25bn from DT), where it has been stuck since the end of for innovation in the group and for the
Vivendi spent €7.95bn to acquire the the Messier’s era – today’s valuation is at emergence of new growth projects”, and
44% stake held by Vodafone in SFR – a 6x proportionate EBITDA, not a real why Vivendi is “putting more emphasis
transaction at 6.5x 2011 EBITDA bargain as the growth from the on organic growth and co-operation
multiple seen as “fully priced” by most emerging business in Morocco & Brazil between Vivendi’s business units”.
analysts. After this long awaited is not enough to compensate the Positive results on this front would be
transaction, on the one hand the stock sluggish growth potential from the best argument in response to the
becomes increasingly exposed to the European assets. Hence, the looming threat posed by the appetite of
French telecom market, and on the fundamental question remains activist investors for a full breakup of
other Vivendi should appear less as a unchanged: what is the strategy to the Group.
Ubisoft Entertainment
Share Price (€)
11
Market Cap (€m) 679 breakeven in sight, helped by the solid
10 performance from company franchise
Share price evolution
9 (Jul.10-Mar.11)
12% titles Assassin’s Creed (III) and casual
8
game Just. However, the company still
11/10 Revenue (€m) 1,085/1,028 trades at about 15x 2011 EBIT while
7
11/10 EBIT (€m) 48/(54) the share price maintains its downward
6 trend. The game-plan for recovery is
EV/EBIT11 15x
5
built on three pillars, games for HD
Market figures as of March 31, 2011
consoles focused on existing franchises,
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casual games (Wii & Kinect) and online
Se
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Ubisoft stock market performance has management’s latest estimates, 2010 games. On the casual games’ front,
been dismal since 2009, severely results (year ending in March 2011) Ubisoft suffered from the overall setback
underperforming all indexes and US show clear signs of improvements, with ofthe Wii market but has a head start
peers (EA, Activision). As per a 15/20% rebound in sales and on the MSFT Kinect platform thanks
3 Listed European Technology Companies – Clipperton Finance Newsletter #3 - Jul.10-Mar.11
4. to early R&D investment in this field. acquisition of multiplayer game engine indeed very different from the
The company should post about provider Quazal, while the French traditional video and online games: the
€300m revenues in casual games for FY company remains quiet in the new games most appeal to a female audience
2010. The picture is much less engaging growth segment of social gaming. In less over the age of 30 and the game play is
in the online games universe, with only than 3 years social gaming has become a based on self-expression and social
€16m revenues in H1. Ubisoft is being new billion dollar industry based on interactions. It will be interesting to see
dwarfed in the online arena by global virtual goods monetization on social in the coming months if Ubisoft
leaders Activision-Blizzard (World of networks such as Facebook. Reacting to manages to break out in this critical
Warcraft) and EA whose digital revenue the stellar growth of social gaming space with its own talent and games
target in 2011 is $750m, and even pure leader Zynga, EA and Disney have franchises. Today their most successful
play companies like Ankama in France. replied with the acquisitions of Zynga’s social game, CSI, counts about 0.3m
Ubisoft’s current focus is on multiplayer challengers PlayFish and Playdom. The daily active users when Zynga’s hits are
online games as evidenced by the recent recipe of success in social games seems above 20m.
Delticom
Share Price (€)
80
Market Cap (€m) 757 Secondly, outside Europe, where
70 Delticom is currently doing less than
Share price evolution
(Jul.10-Mar.11)
74% 25% of its revenue: the company
60
already operates in North America and
50
11/10 Revenue (€m) 458/419 the recent (Dec-2010) acquisition of a
11/10 EBITDA (€m) 49/48 majority stake in the leading Asian
40 player (Tyrepac) gives, as stated by
EV/EBITDA11 14x
Delticom’s CEO, “an important
30 Market figures as of March 31, 2011
building block in our long-term Asian
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strategy”. Other acquisitions could
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help the company take leading
Founded in 1999 by two former Germany enforcing the use of winter
positions in specific regions and would
managers from Continental, Delticom tyres.
be very much supported by a sound
has reached a dominant position in Actually Delticom has a strong growth
financial position with a net cash
Europe with an estimated 50% market opportunity, at a global scale. First in
position of €57m, no debt and an
share in online tyre sales, notably Europe: the dominant position of the
operating cash flow of €30m+ in
thanks to its client base (4m), its company (5 times bigger than its main
2011.
network of fitting partners as well as competitors) will enable it to fully
This overall solid company’s position
its price advantage. benefit from the online market
has been well validated by the market
The next challenge is now to sustain growth, mainly driven by the growth
as the stock price rose by 74% in the
this profitable growth. Looking at of the online penetration. Indeed, this
Jul.10-Mar.11 period and the
2011 forecasted revenue (€458m) one penetration , currently at 7%, is
Enterprise Value was at 14x
might think the business is slowing expected to grow, as tyres are well-
EBITDA2011 in late March 2011.
down as the company expects a 6.4% suited to online purchase: clearly
Delticom has now the opportunity to
growth in 2011 revenue vs. 35% in defined, standardized, easily
be the first e-commerce company
2010, but 2010 was an extraordinary comparable, objective purchase and
starting from a European country and
year mainly thanks to harsher than price attractiveness as wholesaler is cut
to become a dominant player at a
usual winter weather across Europe out. 30% online penetration, as in the
global scale. Somehow, the European-
leading to high demand and strong books market, can be seen as the long
based Amazon of Tyres.
prices, as well as new legislation in term target.
4 Listed European Technology Companies – Clipperton Finance Newsletter #3 - Jul.10-Mar.11
5. 3. focus software
companies to watch
Sage
Share Price (£)
310
300 Market Cap (£bn) 3.6 battleground with players including
290 Liquid, Xero, Netsuite, SAP and
Share price evolution
280
(Jul.10-Mar.11)
23% Microsoft.
270
260
During the next 12-24 months Sage
11/10 Revenue (£bn) 1.5/1.4 will begin to apply its SaaS model
250
240 11/10 EBITDA (£m) 408/395 beyond SMBs and to applications
230
aimed at the middle market, an
220 EV/EBITDA11 9.3x
210 Market figures as of March 31, 2011
important strategy, as addressing the
middle market would give Sage’s
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online tools more of a shelf life.
The Newcastle-based, accountancy 2011, and significantly all regions Sage has targeted its US healthcare
and business management software reported positive revenue growth for segment as a prosperous vertical, and
and services giant, which serves more the first time since 2007. its products are likely to capitalise on
than six million businesses Sage’s annual figures were well the opportunities presented by the
worldwide, grew earnings in 2010, received by the market and its share Healthcare Stimulus. It is predicted
recording £388m in EBITDA, a 4% price jumped over 5% on the day of that the Electronic Healthcare Record
increase from £373m in 2009 (up release (1st December 2010). (EHR) market will grow from
14% when exceptional restructuring With a strong operating cash flow of $2,250m in 2011 to nearly
charges in 2009 are taken into £429m and a significant reduction in $13,000m by 2016. Notably 60% of
account). This was largely a result of net debt (from £439m in September practices in the EHR market are in
tight cost control, particularly in 2009 to £220m in 2010), Sage is in a specialities aligned with Sage’s
North America. strong financial position moving offerings.
During the period revenues were flat forward. Sage continued to convert Sage’s healthcare performance in H1
(slightly contracting by 0.3% from profit to cash, with a profit to cash 2011 was however contrasted. The
£1,439m, 2009, to £1,435m, 2010). conversion of 123% during H1 2011, Integry product, accounting for 53%
This masks an improvement in the further helping to reduce debt. of revenues grew healthily at 8% but
quality of revenue, with a shift away In January 2011 Sage launched a new Medial Manager and other products
from lower margin activities such as web based accounting product – Sage contracted. Overall revenue for Sage
professional services (down 4%), One. Currently a UK-only product Healthcare contracted 5% in H1
towards the more higher margin and targeting smaller companies and 2011. Although proceeding with
recurring ‘subscription based’ revenue individuals, it signals Sage’s response caution, it is expected that the
streams (up 2%) to form 66% of to the growing threat from cloud stimulus will begin to positively
total revenue. Revenue growth based SMB software start-ups, and in impact revenues during H2 2011.
momentum continued during H1 doing so joins the cloud accounting
Dassault Systèmes
Share Price (€)
60
Market Cap (€bn) 6.6
solutions for automotive, aerospace,
58
capital goods and shipbuilding. Main
56 Share price evolution
11% products continue to be CATIA
54 (Jul.10-Mar.11)
(flagship product, product lifecycle
52
50
11/10 Revenue (€bn) 1.7/1.6 management, 42% of DS revenue)
48 11/10 EBITDA (€m) 531/427 and ENOVIA (collaborative PLM,
46
13% of revenue); other PLM
EV/EBITDA11 11x
44 solutions account for 15% of revenue
Market figures as of March 31, 2011
and other CAD solutions for 15%.
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Services only generate 10% of the
Dassault Systèmes remains a global confirmed this; in all of its core company’s revenue. Last but not least,
leader in Product Lifecycle segments and industries, DS has a the firm’s exposure to Japan seems
Management (PLM) software, a high and increasing market share: it limited as the vast majority of its
market that is estimated to be worth holds an overall 25% share of business in Japan is recurring.
$12-15bn, with a solid growth. The Computer Aided Design (CAD) Compared to other European
company’s 2010 results have software, and 30-35% of PLM Software vendors, DS has a very
5 Listed European Technology Companies – Clipperton Finance Newsletter #3 - Jul.10-Mar.11
6. stable customer basis, with only 29% as the two companies had signed in could either come from the
of its software revenue originating June 2008 an MOU to provide the continued deployment of its PLM
from new licences – versus 70% in aerospace and defense industry with offering in growth segments like High
the case of Autonomy and 50% for Intercim's web-based manufacturing Tech, consumer goods, energy and
Software AG. Compared to its direct operations management solution. life sciences, or from a move into a
competition, the company continues So what next, from here? The market new vertical or family of software. In
to show a far better performance, does not price the company as that respect, a significant acquisition
with a 25% operating margin, versus generously as some of its less could be a logical option, particularly
17% for Autodesk and 11% for PTC. performing peers. At the same time, if the company’s valuation continues
In March, DS announced the DS is a dominant player on its to improve. In the world of global
acquisition of Intercim for an market, with strong profitability software vendors, DS is now a
enterprise value base of $36.5m. metrics and a proven technological medium sized player, clearly not at
With this deal, it looks at leadership. The group has partly critical size yet when compared with
strengthening its PLM offering by a managed to diversify over the past peers like SAP and the US players.
continuum of products and solutions years into new segments, such as The high ownership of the Dassault
from engineering to the factory industrial equipment, technologies, Group in the company could provide
operations. This acquisition will not and more importantly consumer to be an impediment on that route, as
reduce the company’s exposure to the goods and health. The important it may not want to accompany the
aerospace and automotive sectors, question will now be its ability to company in an aggressive acquisition
which account for half of its revenue, expand out of its natural market. This strategy.
selected deal
Misys acquisition of Sophis - November 12th, 2010
Mysis Share Price (rebased to November 12th 2010 value)
130
Misys Figures 2010 2011 est
The market has continued to validate
120 Misys’ strategy over the past year – and
110
Revenue (£m) 371 448 since its turnaround plan established in
100 EBITDA (£m) 87 112
2007, Misys’ share price has increased
by 62% since January 2009,
90
EV/Rev 5.0x 4.2x meanwhile the FTSE 100 only
80 increased 7%. Since the Sophis deal
EV/EBITDA 21x 17x
70 was announced (November 25th 2010),
the share price grew by 25% (vs. 4%
Market figures as of March 31, 2011
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for FTSE 100). If this acquisition is
The acquisition of Sophis, announced justified this apparently high price with successfully managed, Misys will be in a
on November 12th, was approved by anticipated synergies of £40m to £50m very favorable position to secure its
Misys’ shareholders on February 11th, over three years. These synergies should competitive advantage in an otherwise
and was officially closed on March 1st. come both from up-sales to existing generally unstable environment for
The company headquartered in Misys and Sophis customers and from financial services – affected in
Dublin but with its roots in France, new customers, thanks to Misys’ global particular by regulatory changes and
was owned by Advent International and distribution network. Though the mergers. The main risks one can
its management. Misys employed company’s medium-term revenue identify are related to the integration
3,500 people worldwide and its growth target range remains at 5-8%, of the new structure, in particular for
operating margin in 2009 (year end operating margin targets were moved R&D and sales, and the related
May 2010) was of 23%, while Sophis up to over 20%. diversion of the management’s time
employed 360 people, with a client It should also be mentioned that to and attention. But all in all, this
base of 130 financial institutions, finance this acquisition, Misys transaction appears as a very smart
including 80 buy-side customers and repurchased 169 million of its own move to an otherwise aging company
total revenue of €74m. The acquired shares for a total of £525m and such as Misys, and should help the
company had an outstanding returned £145m to its shareholders management team build a leading
reputation and financial performance, following the disposal of its Allscript player in financial services, with
with an operating margin of 40%. The holdings. The Current market sustainable size and recognized
price paid by Misys corresponds to a capitalization of the company was thus technological leadership.
2009 EV/EBITDA multiple of 15x for significantly reduced, now down to
a 6x sales multiple. The management £1.1 bn as of end of March.
6 Listed European Technology Companies – Clipperton Finance Newsletter #3 - Jul.10-Mar.11
7. 100 companies
80
France 32% 256
60
Large Cap 91% 77
Germany 27% 207
40
disclaimer Total 100% 684
20
This document has been produced by Clipperton Finance (“Clipperton”) and is communicatedCap you solely for your
Mid
to 7% 188
419
0 Small Cap 2%
information and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or
Total related financial instruments.
100% 684
This newsletter expresses only Clipperton’s views on the European high tech and media landscape and does not express
in any case any judgment of the future trends on the capital market evolutions.
No representation or warranty (expressed or implied) is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness,
accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein and, accordingly, none of Clipperton’s officers or employees
accepts any liability whatsoever arising directly or indirectly from the use of this document.
composition of clipperton technology index (cti)
cti composition - by country cti composition - by size of company cti composition - by sector
Market Cap Weight # of Market Cap Weight # of Market Cap Weight # of
companies 100 companies 100 companies
33% 99
41% 221 80 80
UK
Life Sciences
60 60 Telecom Operators 24% 20
Large Cap 91% 77
France 32% 256 40 40 Media/Web 12% 166
8% 115
Software
20 20
Germany 27% 207 23% 284
Mid Cap 7% 188
419
0 Other
0 Small Cap 2%
Total 100% 684
Total 100% 684 Total 100% 684
clipperton finance
Based in Paris and London, Clipperton Finance is a European corporate finance boutique dedicated to the High Tech
and Media industries. Clipperton is focused on start-up and high-growth companies in the Internet, Software, Telecom,
Components, CleanTech, MedTech and Media spaces, advising them in their financial transactions: fundraising/capital
increases and Mergers & Acquisitions. Over the past years the company and its team have successfully structured
numerous high level international transactions in the European High Tech sector.
For more information, visit www.clipperton.net
Contacts
Nicolas von Bülow, Partner 100Thibaut Revel, Partner
Market Cap Weight # of
companies Alexis Barba, Associate
nvonbulow@clipperton.net 80
trevel@clipperton.net
33% 99 abarba@clipperton.net
Market Cap Weight # of
100 companies Life Sciences
60 Telecom Operators
80
Mike Callow, Senior Associate 24% 20
mcallow@clipperton.net 40 Media/Web 12% 166
60 Software
8% 115
Large Cap 91% 77 20
23% 284
40 0 Other
Total 100% 684
20
Mid Cap 7% 188
Small Cap 2% 419
0
Total 100% 684
France | 10, rue du Mont Thabor - 75001 Paris
UK | 58 Grosvenor Street - London W1K 3JB
Market Cap Weight # of
100 companies
33% 99
80
Life Sciences
7 Listed European Technology Companies – Clipperton Finance Newsletter #3 - Jul.10-Mar.11
60 Telecom Operators 24% 20
40 Media/Web 12% 166
8% 115
Software
20