Volatility Comparison, Public & Private Real Estate

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This chart compares the volatility measured by two real estate indexes: the FTSE NAREIT PureProperty index, which measures unlevered investments in listed REITs, and the NCREIF Transaction Based Index, which measures unlevered investments in institutionally owned real estate. The results indicate that listed real estate is no more volatile than unlisted real estate: the difference in measured volatility between listed REITs and private equity real estate investments is because (1) most measures of listed REIT returns reflect the use of leverage whereas leading measures of private real estate returns subtract the effects of leverage, and (2) leading measures of private real estate returns are based not on transactions but on appraisals, which smooth measured returns relative to actual returns. Questions? Contact me at bcase@nareit.com.

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This document summarizes 61 independent academic studies of private equity investment performance, with at least one key quotation from each study, plus a web link to each one. Most of the empirical evidence suggests that private equity investments perform relatively poorly, but some reach the opposite conclusion--generally those that do not take into account leverage or illiquidity risk. Several of the studies investigate the ill effects of poor alignment of interests between investment managers and their investors. Some find evidence that investment managers manipulate their reported returns while they are raising capital for a follow-on fund; others find evidence that investment managers make poor investments to deploy unused capital. One shows that the way returns to private equity funds are measured makes it possible to achieve no better than average results for decades but to report spectacular performance. Questions? Contact me at bcase@nareit.com.

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This bibliography has web links and quotations from 16 independent academic studies of the relationship between listed equity REIT returns and unlisted real estate returns (direct holdings or private equity funds). These papers do not address which real estate investments provide better returns. See my separate bibliography at http://www.slideshare.net/casebrad/bibliography-on-public-and-private-real-estate for studies comparing performance. Questions? Contact me at bcase@nareit.com.

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Shows the implied optimal allocations to listed U.S. equity REITs and private equity real estate funds following core, value add, and opportunistic strategies, based on net total returns reported for the historical period 1993q1-2013q3. The minimum-volatility real estate portfolio would have included nearly 5% in listed U.S. equity REITs. Private real estate return measures lag behind actual returns by about 4-5 quarters, producing a "temporal diversification" benefit: when real estate markets turn down, measured returns for private investments are usually still increasing; when measured returns on private real estate finally turn down, listed returns are often already rising. The chart shows an example of an implied optimal allocation for an 8.5% target long-term average net return. It also shows the real estate portfolio allocation that would have maximized risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ratio) over the historical period with 39.1% invested in opportunistic real estate funds, 38.0% in core funds, and 23.0% invested in listed equity REITs. The reason this chart is not updated is that the NCREIF-Townsend Fund Indices for private equity real estate funds following value-add and opportunistic strategies were discontinued after 2013Q3. Questions? Contact me at bcase@nareit.com.

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1. Volatility Comparison, Listed and Private Real Estate Unlevered Capital Appreciation and Total Returns, 2000q1 – 2014q3 Capital Appreciation Total Return Listed U.S. Equity REITs (unlevered) U.S. Private Equity Real Estate (unlevered) Listed U.S. Equity REITs (unlevered) U.S. Private Equity Real Estate (unlevered) Apartment 10.45% 10.67% 10.53% 10.74% Industrial 12.50% 10.48% 12.61% 10.61% Office 10.43% 10.62% 10.53% 10.62% Retail 11.18% 10.91% 11.28% 11.07% East Region 11.28%* 10.91% 11.39%* 10.04% Midwest Region 9.92%* 9.99% 9.97%* 10.06% South Region 10.68%* 10.27% 10.77%* 10.36% West Region 11.60%* 10.68% 11.68%* 10.73% Aggregate 10.48%* 10.54% 10.58%* 10.62% All figures are annualized based on standard deviation of quarterly returns, 2000Q1-2014Q3. Listed U.S. equity REIT returns measured by the FTSE NAREIT PureProperty® index series; unlisted U.S. real estate returns measured by the NCREIF Transaction Based Index (NTBI). Quarterly returns for NTBI are measured using all available properties that transacted during each quarter; quarterly returns for PureProperty are measured on the basis of only the last stock transaction in each quarter. *Includes health care and hotel properties, which are slightly more volatile. Source: NAREIT analysis of data from FTSE and NCREIF. 0

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