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40 Years of the Web and where the mobile web is going.

40 Years of the Web and where the mobile web is going.

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Accelerate to Accelerate to Presentation Transcript

  •   
    AccelerateTO
    Web meets World
    Nov 2010
    CONFIDENTIAL | TRADE SECRET
  • t = now
  • Web 0.1 : Beta [t-40] 1G
    Bomb Proof
    Networks
    Vint Cerf
    Dr. Martin Cooper
    Wired Web: 7
    Impact: Universities connected
    Mobiles: 7,000
    View slide
  • Web 1.0 [t-20] 2G
    Wired Web: 520,000 Mobiles: 7,000,000
    Impact: Links
    View slide
  • Web 1.0 [t-15] 2G
    Wired Web: 16,000,000 Mobiles: 98,000,000
    Impact: E-commerce ramps
  • Web 1.0 [t-12] 2G
    1969 1972 1976 1982 1989 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2004 20052006 2008 2009
    Wired Web: 147,000,000 Mobiles: 469,200,000
    Impact: Search and SaaS
  • Web 1.0 : Dies [t-10] 2.5G
    Wired Web: 361,000,000 Mobiles: 709,000,000
    Impact: Tactical retreat & rebuild
  • Web 2.0 : Social [t-6] 3G
    People connected: 817,000,000
    Impact: Social Web ramps
    Mobiles: 1,744,000,000
  • In the beginning… [t-3]
  • 3G
    Web 2.0
  • Web 3.0
  • 1969 1972 1976 1982 1989 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2004 20052006 2008 2009
    Web 2.0 [t-2] 4G
    DJIA
    lost 53% of its value
    Wired Web: 1,586,000,000 Mobiles: 4,269,600,000
    Impact: Massive GDP shifts
  • Web 3.0 : Web meets World [t-1]
    1969 1972 1976 1982 1989 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2004 20052006 2008 20092010
    People connected: 1,668,000,000
    Mobiles: 4,646,000,000
    Impact: Web meets World
  • Just starting to get faster…
    13
  • 10,000,000,000 units?
  • Open Mobile: $s follow usage = $1,000,000,000
    15
  • Smart Phones > PCs
  • 4 Horse Race?
  • 6 Months ago….
  • “iPad will chop Netbook sales 
    by 50 percent”
    Brian Dunn, CEO Best Buy
    WSJ Sept 17th
  • Last month….
  • End of….
    • PCs
    • Record labels
    • Newspapers
    • Books
    • Credit Cards
    • Law firms
    • Banks
    • …..
  • 40th month of “smart”……
    325,000,000 users 300%
    236,000,000 units 300%
    300,000 apps 100%8,000,000,000 dls 500%22,000,000 a day 700%
    22
  • Now = Web 3.0 [t-0]
    1969 1972 1976 1982 1989 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2004 20052006 2008 20092010
    Wired Web: 1,966,514,816
    Mobiles: 5,155,651,438
    Population: 6,845,609,960
    Impact: Web is World @ 28% & 71%
  • 40 years of acceleration
  • What’s next [t+1]
  • What’s next [t +4 ]
    Open Mobile
    • Open radios (wifi, 3G, 4G)
    • Open OS & Multiple OS
    • Open Applications
    • Open APIs
    1969 1972 1976 1982 1989 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2004 20052006 2008 2009 2014
    Smart Phones: 1,000,000,000
    People connected: 4,000,000,000
    Impact: $14 Trillion (30%) GDP
    26