BSEF 2013 macroeconomy Oleg Ustenko

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BSEF 2013 macroeconomy Oleg Ustenko

  1. 1. New economic realities: a quest for sustainable sources of economic development of the Black Sea region Oleg Ustenko Executive Director, The Bleyzer Foundation TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY October 24-25, 2013, Crimea І V INTERNATIONAL BLACK SEA ECONOMIC FOR
  2. 2. a quest for sustainable development… • Export-led recovery remains unimpressive on Eurozone weaknesses and a slower growth in Russia. • Tighter access to external borrowing limits the growth of investment and consumer spending, especially in smaller countries. • Consumer led recovery looks particularly shaky in Ukraine on concerns of weak public finances, slowing exports and surging external funding needs. • Credit growth to private sector is sluggish, especially in Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria. • A shift toward investment-based growth is not happening on poor investment climate, especially in Russia and Ukraine. • Higher private domestic and foreign investments are essential to unlock potential sources of economic growth in energy, infrastructure, transportation and agriculture. TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  3. 3. Economic Growth % annual change Source: IMF TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  4. 4. Per capita GDP based on PPP, thousand current international dollars Source: IMF TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  5. 5. Sources of Economic Growth contributions to GDP growth, percentage points UKRAINE Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  6. 6. Sources of Economic Growth contributions to GDP growth, percentage points RUSSIA Source: World Bank TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  7. 7. Sources of Economic Growth contributions to GDP growth, percentage points TURKEY Source: World Bank, OECD TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  8. 8. Sources of Economic Growth contributions to GDP growth, percentage points BULGARIA Source: World Bank, OECD TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  9. 9. Sources of Economic Growth contributions to GDP growth, percentage points ROMANIA Source: World Bank, OECD TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  10. 10. Sources of Economic Growth contributions to GDP growth, percentage points GEORGIA Source: World Bank, Asian Development Bank, TBF TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  11. 11. The End of The Credit Boom credit to private sector, % annual change Source: IMF, World Bank TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  12. 12. Macroeconomic vulnerabilities consumer prices, % annual change Source: IMF TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  13. 13. Macroeconomic vulnerabilities current account, % of GDP Source: IMF TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  14. 14. Macroeconomic vulnerabilities general government revenue minus expenditure, % of GDP Source: IMF TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  15. 15. Macroeconomic vulnerabilities gross government debt, % of GDP Source: IMF TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  16. 16. Macroeconomic vulnerabilities Credit Default Swaps, percentage points Source: Deutsche Bank AG TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  17. 17. Investment Climate Ease of doing business rank Index of Economic Freedom Global Competitiveness Index Government effectiveness, percentile rank (higher number better performance) Corruption Perception Index Source: World Bank, WEF, Transparency International, The Heritage Foundation TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY

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