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Flavio Bernardotti
Flavio Bernardotti

Socom indonesia scenario_jtrs

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MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-1 XYZ 01/13/15 Terrorist Scenario – South East Asia
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-2 XYZ 01/13/15 Terrorism • Al Qaeda linked bombing of Australian Embassy in Indonesia on Sep 8, 2004
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-3 XYZ 01/13/15 JI comments… • "We decided to settle accounts with Australia, one of the worst enemies of God and Islam ... • "We advise all Australians in Indonesia to leave, or we will make it a grave for them, God willing • Australian government has ignored previous warnings and taken part "in the war against our brothers in Iraq and supported the invading forces." Jemaah Islamiya (JI) - Southeast Asian arm of al Qaeda
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-4 XYZ 01/13/15 Terrorist Scenario – Indonesia • Regional Summary • Current Threat Conditions • U.S. National Security Objectives – CINC Operational Objectives • Blue Force Structure – ASEAN Member Force Structure – Coalition Force Structure – Force Employment
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-5 XYZ 01/13/15 Regional Summary • Formerly Dutch East-Indies • Of 17,000 islands, 6,000 are inhabited • East-west expanse: 3,200 miles; equivalent distance = Ireland to Iran • 200nm Exclusive Maritime Economic Zone • 12nm Maritime Territorial Zone • 240 million people – 19 languages • Muslim – 88%; Christian – 8%; Other – 3% Indonesia – A country of unrest; A country vital to the world economy
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-6 XYZ 01/13/15 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest Sukarno 1945-1967 • United S.E. Asia/Island ethnic groups through diplomacy backed by force at the end of WWII • Assumed “Presidency” maintaining control through military • Lost conflict to gain Malaysia as part of Indonesia • Internal unrest and a failed military coup in 1966 ultimately removed him from power the following year
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-7 XYZ 01/13/15 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest Suharto 1967-1998 Sukarno 1945-1967 • Senior military officer under Sukarno • Used military to control dissident groups seeking more autonomy/independence from the central government • Won seven “unopposed” elections until economic catastrophe and internal dissatisfaction with military controls forced him to step down
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-8 XYZ 01/13/15 Habibie 1998-1999 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest Suharto 1967-1998 Sukarno 1945-1967 • Suharto’s Vice-President and hand-picked successor • Stepped in to run the Government until the 1999 elections could be held • The country’s first truly democratic elections
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-9 XYZ 01/13/15 Habibie 1998-1999 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest Suharto 1967-1998 Wahid 1999-2001 Sukarno 1945-1967 • Unable to revive the economy, separatist activity increased • Military abuses cause intense protest & migration of refugees • Muslim radical groups strengthen their foothold • Parliament removes him from office
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-10 XYZ 01/13/15 Habibie 1998-1999 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest Suharto 1967-1998 Wahid 1999-2001 Sukarno 1945-1967 Sukarnoputri 2001-2004
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-11 XYZ 01/13/15 Current President • Indonesia’s first-ever directly elected President • Pledged to outlaw al Qaeda linked JI
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-12 XYZ 01/13/15 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-13 XYZ 01/13/15 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-14 XYZ 01/13/15 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-15 XYZ 01/13/15 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-16 XYZ 01/13/15 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-17 XYZ 01/13/15 Indonesia – Vital to the World Economy Indian Ocean Pacific Ocean South China Sea Malacca Strait • 600nm long, 17 to 54m deep • Primary conduit for Indo- Europe to E. Asia maritime traffic – Virtually all E. Asia oil shipped through the Malacca Straits (36% of all ship traffic) – Over $1.1 trillion (U.S.) in goods transit annually – 50,000 ships transit each year; 137/day • 60% of Malaysia/Indonesia fish catch comes from Malacca Straits Malacca Strait
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-18 XYZ 01/13/15 Pacific Ocean South China Sea Sunda Strait • Secondary conduit for Indo- Europe to E. Asia maritime traffic – Adds 2 sailing days to route – Can not absorb overflow should Malacca Strait close Sunda Strait Indian Ocean Malacca Strait Indonesia – Vital to the World Economy
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-19 XYZ 01/13/15 Pacific Ocean South China Sea Indian Ocean Malacca Strait Lombok/Makassar Straits • Primary conduit for Indo- Europe to Pacific maritime traffic – Adds 5 sailing days to route should Malacca Strait close • Lombok Strait handles all shipping traffic between Australia and East Asia Sunda Strait Indonesia – Vital to the World Economy Lombok Strait Makassar Strait
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-20 XYZ 01/13/15 Indonesia Al Qaeda Connection •Guerrillas of Free Aceh Movement - GAM – Muslim separatist, 4,000 strong demand independence of Aceh Province – Hosted bin Laden’s #2, Ayman Al- Zawahiri & al Qaeda’s former military chief, Mohammed Atef in June 2000 •Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) – Demand creation of an Islamic state consisting of portions of Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, & Indonesia – Responsible for Christmas 2000 & Bali bombings – Lieutenants trained in Camp Chaldun, Afghanistan; created sleeper cells across Indonesia
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-21 XYZ 01/13/15 Threat Summary • Indonesia intelligence believes GAM and JI have formed a cooperative alliance – The alliance has been independently confirmed by CIA operatives in-country GAM’s objective is to gain world recognition for their 28-year independence struggle & force the Government to the bargaining table or replace the current administration with one that will negotiate JI wants to devastate the Indonesian economy prior to the 2004 general election so that the administration will topple or be unelectable
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-22 XYZ 01/13/15 Threat Summary • GAM and JI strategies may be designed to take advantage of the recent merging of Islamic political parties in Indonesia – The Crescent Moon and Star Party (PBB) and the National Awakening Party (PKB) have consolidated party platforms for the 2004 election Pledge to fight rampant corruption, particularly at the local and provincial levels where Government officials and the military receive kickbacks from illicit gambling, prostitution, and drug businesses Pledge to build a “religious police force” to enforce Sharia-based laws – Combined, the two parties command and unprecedented 35 to 40% of the voters which will overcome the four remaining parties
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-23 XYZ 01/13/15 GAM/JI Course of Action • Disrupt Indonesia’s oil and gas and tourist industry – Targets:  Foreign hotels, night clubs, and tourist attractions across the country and random kidnapping of foreigners  Off-shore oil rigs in Malacca Strait  Natural gas liquidization plants in Aceh • Disrupt world shipping traffic in the straits – Methods:  Piracy  Ship-to-shore missiles/artillery  Mine-laying  Scuttling in the channel • Intelligence has determined Aceh and JI intend to simultaneously disrupt commercial shipping in all primary straits in S.E. Asia
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-24 XYZ 01/13/15 Malacca Strait Malacca Strait Closure • Would effect over 50% of the worlds shipping vessels • Would require all of the world’s excess shipping tonnage to make up the lost tonnage due to increased number of sailing days through alternate routes Shoreline strike zone Narrowest Point: Singapore Strait – 1.5nm
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-25 XYZ 01/13/15 Malacca Strait Shoreline strike zone Narrowest Point: Singapore Strait – 1.5nm
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-26 XYZ 01/13/15 Malacca Strait Shoreline strike zone Narrowest Point: Singapore Strait – 1.5nm
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-27 XYZ 01/13/15 Malacca Strait Indonesia Malaysia Narrowest Point: Singapore Strait – 1.5nm Shoreline strike zone Singapore
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-28 XYZ 01/13/15 Alternate Routes Sunda Strait Lombok Strait Shoreline strike zone
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-29 XYZ 01/13/15 Sunda Strait Sunda Strait Lombok Strait Sunda Strait Java Sumatra
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-30 XYZ 01/13/15 Lombok Strait Sunda Strait Lombok Strait Lombok Strait Bali
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-31 XYZ 01/13/15 U.S. National Objectives • Assist South East Asia nation’s efforts to identify and remove terrorist threats within their borders • Prevent South East Asia terrorist organizations from closing Indonesia’s sea lanes and creating a world economic crisis • Protect commercial ships transiting Indonesia’s sea lanes traffic from terrorist attack thereby minimizing costly insurance increases
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-32 XYZ 01/13/15 U.S. National Strategy • Support the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) to keep the sea lanes open – ASEAN nations monitor ports and shoreline access to straits – ASEAN coalition partners (including the U.S.) form picket lines at entrances to the straits • Through bi-lateral agreements support Indonesian, Thailand, and Malaysia military and domestic police forces in coordinated counter-terrorism operations against GAM & JI – Economic aid, law enforcement assistance, and cooperative military counter-terrorist operations
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-33 XYZ 01/13/15 ASEAN Coalition for Sea Lane Protection • Association of South East Asia Nations providing forces to maintain sea lanes – Indonesia – Malaysia – Philippines – Singapore – Thailand • Coalition partners providing forces to maintain sea lanes – Australia – Britain – China – Japan – United States
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-34 XYZ 01/13/15 ASEAN Coalition for Sea Lane Protection Coalition Combatants Coalition Combatants Coalition Combatants Coalition Combatants USCINCPAC PACAF Combatants PACFLT Combatants SOCOM Combatants CINC JTF-Seal Coalition Commands Coalition Commands Coalition CommandsCoalition Commands Operational & Tactical Control USSTATCOMUSTRANSCOM Supporting CINCs Tactical Control Operational Control
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-35 XYZ 01/13/15 Sea Lane Protection AOR Indonesia ASEAN Malaysia Thailand Philippines China & Japan Australia United States Great Britain ASEAN Coalition
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-36 XYZ 01/13/15 Sea Lane Protection – U.S. Forces Malacca Strait AOR Frigate (FFG-7) 2 Mouth of Malacca Strait Destroyer (DD) 3 Mouth of Malacca Strait MCS-12 1 Malacca Strait - CH-53E helos 8 - SAR helos 2 - EOD team 1 MCM 2 Malacca Strait SSN (Fast Attack) 1 Malacca Strait P-3 3 Singapore Spec. Forces Team 1 Assigned to Indonesia Marine Spec. Forces Company to board ships MC2A* 2 Singapore KC-10* 2 Singapore Makassar Strait AOR PACFLT Assets PACAF Assets Frigate (FFG-7) 2 North of Makassar Strait Destroyer (DD) 2 North of Makassar Strait MCS-12 (retired) 1 Makassar Strait - CH-53E helos 8 - SAR helos 2 - EOD team 1 MCM 2 Makassar Strait SSN (Fast Attack) 1 Makassar Strait P-3 3 Mactan AB, Philippines Spec. Forces Team 1 Assigned to Indonesia Marine Spec. Forces Company to board ships MC2A* 2 Mactan AB, Philippines KC-135* 2 Mactan AB, Philippines SOCOM Assets Platform Qty Location Platform Qty Location *MC2A and Tankers also support U.S. Counter-Terrorist operations
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-37 XYZ 01/13/15 Sea Lane Protection – Coalition Forces Frigate (FFG) - ANZAC class 2 South of Lombok Strait Off-shore Patrol Boat (PBG) – Fremantle class 3 South of Lombok Strait Mine Countermeasure (MCM) – Bandicoot class 2 Lombok Strait Frigate (FFG) - Adelaide class 1 North of Lombok Strait Off-shore Patrol Boat (PBG) – Fremantle class 3 Nouth of Lombok Strait Frigate (FFG) - ANZAC class 2 Flores Sea Frigate (FFG) - Adelaide class 2 Flores Sea Off-shore Patrol Boat (PBG) – Fremantle class 6 Flores Sea Off-shore PG (PBG) 4 Flores Sea Mine Countermeasure (MCM) – Huon class 2 Flores Sea Maritime Patrol Aircraft (AP-3C) 8 Darwin, Australia Refueling Aircraft (KC-135) 3 Darwin, Australia Frigate (FFG) – Type 23 Duke Class 2 South of Sunda Strait Frigate (FFG) – Type 22 Broadsword Class 1 South of Sunda Strait Destroyer (DDG) – Type 42 2 North of Sunda Strait Mine Countermeasures (MCMV) – Sandown Class 2 Sundra Strait Frigate (FFG) Type 53HT-H – Jianghu IV Class 3 South China Sea Destroyer (DDG) Type 51 – Luda II Class 2 South China Sea Patrol Boat (PBG) Type 21 – Huangfeng Class 5 South China Sea Frigate (FFG) – Mursame Class 2 South China Sea Destroyer (DDK) – Takanami Class 2 South China Sea Maritime Patrol (P-3C) 5 Kuching, Malaysia Aussie Assets British Assets Platform Qty Location Chinese Assets Japanese Assets
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-38 XYZ 01/13/15 Sea Lane Protection – ASEAN Forces Frigate (FFG) – Ahmed Yani Class 2 South Entrance to Malacca Strait Corvette – Kapitan Patimura Class 4 South Entrance to Malacca Strait Patrol Boat (PB) – Kal Kangean Class 8 Malacca Strait Patrol Boat (PB) – Kujang Class 5 Malacca Strait High Speed Patrol Craft – Kodjo Class 12 Malacca Strait Mine Countermeasures (MCM) – Kondor-II Class 3 Malacca Strait & South Entrance Maritime Patrol Aircraft – N22B Searchmaster SAR 5 Malacca Strait Frigate (FFG) – Samadikun Class 3 Karimate Strait, Java Sea Corvette – Kapitan Patimura Class 6 Karimate Strait, Java Sea Patrol Boat (PB) – DKN 504 Class 10 Karimate Strait, Java Sea Mine Countermeasures (MCM) – Kondor II Class 3 Karimate Strait, Java Sea Maritime Patrol Aircraft – N22SL Searchmaster SAR 6 Karimate Strait, Java Sea Frigate (FFG) – Ahmed Yani Class 2 South Entrance to Makassar Strait Corvette – Fatahilah Class 3 South Entrance to Makassar Strait Fast Attack Boat – Sibaru Class 6 Makassar Strait & South Entrance Patrol Boat (PB) – Kal Kangean Class 8 Makassar Strait Maritime Patrol Aircraft – N22 Searchmaster SAR 8 Makassar Strait Frigate (FFG) – Lekiu Class 2 Malacca Stait Corvette – Kasturi Class 2 Malacca Strait Patrol Boat (PB) – Sri Selangor Class 16 Malacca Strait Mine Countermeasures (MCM) – Mahamiru Class 2 Malacca Strait Maritime Patrol Aircraft – B200T Super King Air SAR 4 Malacca Strait Indonesia Assets Platform Qty Location Malaysia Assets
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-39 XYZ 01/13/15 Counter-Terrorism Operations Thai Combatants Malaysian Combatants Indonesian Combatants USSOCOM SOCOM Combatants PACAF Combatants Thai Commands Malaysian Commands Indonesian Commands Operational & Tactical Control USSTATCOMUSTRANSCOM Supporting CINCs Operational & Tactical Control Tactical Coordination Operational Coordination
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-40 XYZ 01/13/15 Counter-Terrorism Task Force AOR JI: Malaysia JI: Thailand JI: Central Sulawesi, Indonesia GAM: Aceh, Indonesia
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-41 XYZ 01/13/15 U.S. Force Structure – Counter Terrorism Aceh/Malacca Strait AOR MC2A* 2 Singapore E-2C 2 Singapore KC-10* 2 Singapore Rivet Joint 1 Singapore F-15E 12 Penang, Malaysia RQ-1B,Predator-B 1(4) Penang, Malaysia RQ-7, Shadow 600 4(3) BandaAceh Aceh, Indonesia Sulawesi/Makassar Strait AOR SOCOM Assets Air Assets MC2A* 1 Mactan AB, Philippines E-2C 2 Mactan AB, Philippines KC-135* 2 Mactan AB, Philippines Rivet Joint 1 Singapore F/A-18 8 Mactan AB, Philippines F-16 8 Mactan AB, Philippines RQ-1B, Predator B 1(4) Ujungpandang, Sulawesi RQ-7, Shadow 600 2(3) Poso, Sulawesi, Indonesia SOCOM Unit Qty Assigned with: Special Forces Team 2 Kopassus, Combat Group I, - Aceh Special Forces Team 1 Kopassus, Combat Group V (Counter- Terrorism) - Aceh ISR Coordination Team 1 Kopassus, Combat Group IV (Intel) - Jakarta Special Forces Team 2 21st GKN Sungei Udang, Malaysia Special Forces Team 1 1st Inf. Div. Changwat Trang, Thailand SOCOM Unit Qty Assigned with: Special Forces Team 2 Kopassus, Combat Group II, Sulawesi * Same assets are supporting USCINCPAC Sea Lane Protection effort
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-42 XYZ 01/13/15 MC2A Employment Predator Shadow 600 JTIDS E-2C F-15E MC2A
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-43 XYZ 01/13/15 100 300 200 400 500 100 200 300 400 500 B1 B2/CAOC B3 E2-C RC-135W M C 2A KC-135R F-22 (4) Predator A Predator #2 / Predator B 600 NM USN Firescout Orbit Areas SOCOM Teams Bases Predator Orbits Firescout Orbits Kopassus Combat Group I Kopassus Combat Group V 1st Inf /Special Ops 21 GKN Shadow UAV Orbits Terrorist Bombing N S HSV-2
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-44 XYZ 01/13/15 Indonesia Malaysia Thailand SOCOM Assets KC-10 Singapore M C 2A RJ Shadow UAV E-2C Predator-B SOCOM Teams 21 GKN 21 GKN 1st Inf. Div./Special Ops F-22(4) Kopassus Combat Group V Kopassus Combat Group 1 F-15E (4) 30 min Gnd Alert MC2A
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-45 XYZ 01/13/15 Population Density Sulawesi, Indonesia Kalimantan, Indonesia Global Hawk (SIGINT) 21 GKN Kopassus Combat Group II Kopassus Combat Group II KC-135 F/A-18 (4) 30 min Gnd Alert Mactan AB, PI MC2A F/A-18 (4) E-2C 18001700 Shadow UAV Predator-A/B SOCOM Teams MC2A 1600 Predator A 0 Bases - GS Predator A -100
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-46 XYZ 01/13/15 Population Density SOCOM Assets Sulawesi, Indonesia Kalimantan, Indonesia Global Hawk 21 GKN Kopassus Combat Group II Kopassus Combat Group II KC-135 F/A-18 (4) 30 min Gnd Alert Mactan AB, PI MC2A F/A-18 (4) E-2C Shadow UAV Predator-B SOCOM Teams MC2A
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-47 XYZ 01/13/15 Population Density SOCOM Assets Sulawesi, Indonesia Kalimantan, Indonesia Global Hawk (SIGINT) 21 GKN Kopassus Combat Group II Kopassus Combat Group II KC-135 F/A-18 (4) 30 min Gnd Alert Mactan AB, PI MC2A F/A-18 (4) E-2C Shadow UAV Predator-A/B SOCOM Teams MC2A Ujungpandang (UAV Base)
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-48 XYZ 01/13/15 Indonesia Malaysia SOCOM Assets KC-10 Signapore M C 2A RJ Shadow UAV E-2C Predator-A/B SOCOM Teams 21 GKN 21 GKN 1st Inf. Div./Special Ops F-22(4) Kopassus Combat Group V Kopassus Combat Group 1 F-22 (4) 30 min Gnd Alert MC2A Thailand G -H aw k
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-49 XYZ 01/13/15 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 100 200 300 400 500 B1 – Paya Lebar B2 – Penang B3 – Polonia
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-50 XYZ 01/13/15 100 300 200 400 500 100 200 300 400 500 B1 B2 B3 E2-C RC-135W M C 2A KC-135R F-22 (4) Predator A Predator A
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-51 XYZ 01/13/15 Population Density SOCOM Assets Sulawesi, Indonesia Kalimantan, Indonesia Global Hawk (SIGINT) 21 GKN Kopassus Combat Group II Kopassus Combat Group II KC-135 F/A-18 (4) 30 min Gnd Alert Mactan AB, PI MC2A F/A-18 (4) E-2C Shadow UAV Predator-A/B SOCOM Teams MC2A Ujungpandang (UAV Base)
MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-52 XYZ 01/13/15 Western Theater 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 100 400 300 200 500 500 Base 1

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Socom indonesia scenario_jtrs

  • 1. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-1 XYZ 01/13/15 Terrorist Scenario – South East Asia
  • 2. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-2 XYZ 01/13/15 Terrorism • Al Qaeda linked bombing of Australian Embassy in Indonesia on Sep 8, 2004
  • 3. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-3 XYZ 01/13/15 JI comments… • "We decided to settle accounts with Australia, one of the worst enemies of God and Islam ... • "We advise all Australians in Indonesia to leave, or we will make it a grave for them, God willing • Australian government has ignored previous warnings and taken part "in the war against our brothers in Iraq and supported the invading forces." Jemaah Islamiya (JI) - Southeast Asian arm of al Qaeda
  • 4. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-4 XYZ 01/13/15 Terrorist Scenario – Indonesia • Regional Summary • Current Threat Conditions • U.S. National Security Objectives – CINC Operational Objectives • Blue Force Structure – ASEAN Member Force Structure – Coalition Force Structure – Force Employment
  • 5. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-5 XYZ 01/13/15 Regional Summary • Formerly Dutch East-Indies • Of 17,000 islands, 6,000 are inhabited • East-west expanse: 3,200 miles; equivalent distance = Ireland to Iran • 200nm Exclusive Maritime Economic Zone • 12nm Maritime Territorial Zone • 240 million people – 19 languages • Muslim – 88%; Christian – 8%; Other – 3% Indonesia – A country of unrest; A country vital to the world economy
  • 6. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-6 XYZ 01/13/15 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest Sukarno 1945-1967 • United S.E. Asia/Island ethnic groups through diplomacy backed by force at the end of WWII • Assumed “Presidency” maintaining control through military • Lost conflict to gain Malaysia as part of Indonesia • Internal unrest and a failed military coup in 1966 ultimately removed him from power the following year
  • 7. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-7 XYZ 01/13/15 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest Suharto 1967-1998 Sukarno 1945-1967 • Senior military officer under Sukarno • Used military to control dissident groups seeking more autonomy/independence from the central government • Won seven “unopposed” elections until economic catastrophe and internal dissatisfaction with military controls forced him to step down
  • 8. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-8 XYZ 01/13/15 Habibie 1998-1999 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest Suharto 1967-1998 Sukarno 1945-1967 • Suharto’s Vice-President and hand-picked successor • Stepped in to run the Government until the 1999 elections could be held • The country’s first truly democratic elections
  • 9. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-9 XYZ 01/13/15 Habibie 1998-1999 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest Suharto 1967-1998 Wahid 1999-2001 Sukarno 1945-1967 • Unable to revive the economy, separatist activity increased • Military abuses cause intense protest & migration of refugees • Muslim radical groups strengthen their foothold • Parliament removes him from office
  • 10. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-10 XYZ 01/13/15 Habibie 1998-1999 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest Suharto 1967-1998 Wahid 1999-2001 Sukarno 1945-1967 Sukarnoputri 2001-2004
  • 11. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-11 XYZ 01/13/15 Current President • Indonesia’s first-ever directly elected President • Pledged to outlaw al Qaeda linked JI
  • 12. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-12 XYZ 01/13/15 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
  • 13. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-13 XYZ 01/13/15 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
  • 14. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-14 XYZ 01/13/15 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
  • 15. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-15 XYZ 01/13/15 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
  • 16. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-16 XYZ 01/13/15 Indonesia – A Country of Unrest
  • 17. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-17 XYZ 01/13/15 Indonesia – Vital to the World Economy Indian Ocean Pacific Ocean South China Sea Malacca Strait • 600nm long, 17 to 54m deep • Primary conduit for Indo- Europe to E. Asia maritime traffic – Virtually all E. Asia oil shipped through the Malacca Straits (36% of all ship traffic) – Over $1.1 trillion (U.S.) in goods transit annually – 50,000 ships transit each year; 137/day • 60% of Malaysia/Indonesia fish catch comes from Malacca Straits Malacca Strait
  • 18. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-18 XYZ 01/13/15 Pacific Ocean South China Sea Sunda Strait • Secondary conduit for Indo- Europe to E. Asia maritime traffic – Adds 2 sailing days to route – Can not absorb overflow should Malacca Strait close Sunda Strait Indian Ocean Malacca Strait Indonesia – Vital to the World Economy
  • 19. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-19 XYZ 01/13/15 Pacific Ocean South China Sea Indian Ocean Malacca Strait Lombok/Makassar Straits • Primary conduit for Indo- Europe to Pacific maritime traffic – Adds 5 sailing days to route should Malacca Strait close • Lombok Strait handles all shipping traffic between Australia and East Asia Sunda Strait Indonesia – Vital to the World Economy Lombok Strait Makassar Strait
  • 20. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-20 XYZ 01/13/15 Indonesia Al Qaeda Connection •Guerrillas of Free Aceh Movement - GAM – Muslim separatist, 4,000 strong demand independence of Aceh Province – Hosted bin Laden’s #2, Ayman Al- Zawahiri & al Qaeda’s former military chief, Mohammed Atef in June 2000 •Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) – Demand creation of an Islamic state consisting of portions of Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, & Indonesia – Responsible for Christmas 2000 & Bali bombings – Lieutenants trained in Camp Chaldun, Afghanistan; created sleeper cells across Indonesia
  • 21. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-21 XYZ 01/13/15 Threat Summary • Indonesia intelligence believes GAM and JI have formed a cooperative alliance – The alliance has been independently confirmed by CIA operatives in-country GAM’s objective is to gain world recognition for their 28-year independence struggle & force the Government to the bargaining table or replace the current administration with one that will negotiate JI wants to devastate the Indonesian economy prior to the 2004 general election so that the administration will topple or be unelectable
  • 22. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-22 XYZ 01/13/15 Threat Summary • GAM and JI strategies may be designed to take advantage of the recent merging of Islamic political parties in Indonesia – The Crescent Moon and Star Party (PBB) and the National Awakening Party (PKB) have consolidated party platforms for the 2004 election Pledge to fight rampant corruption, particularly at the local and provincial levels where Government officials and the military receive kickbacks from illicit gambling, prostitution, and drug businesses Pledge to build a “religious police force” to enforce Sharia-based laws – Combined, the two parties command and unprecedented 35 to 40% of the voters which will overcome the four remaining parties
  • 23. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-23 XYZ 01/13/15 GAM/JI Course of Action • Disrupt Indonesia’s oil and gas and tourist industry – Targets:  Foreign hotels, night clubs, and tourist attractions across the country and random kidnapping of foreigners  Off-shore oil rigs in Malacca Strait  Natural gas liquidization plants in Aceh • Disrupt world shipping traffic in the straits – Methods:  Piracy  Ship-to-shore missiles/artillery  Mine-laying  Scuttling in the channel • Intelligence has determined Aceh and JI intend to simultaneously disrupt commercial shipping in all primary straits in S.E. Asia
  • 24. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-24 XYZ 01/13/15 Malacca Strait Malacca Strait Closure • Would effect over 50% of the worlds shipping vessels • Would require all of the world’s excess shipping tonnage to make up the lost tonnage due to increased number of sailing days through alternate routes Shoreline strike zone Narrowest Point: Singapore Strait – 1.5nm
  • 25. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-25 XYZ 01/13/15 Malacca Strait Shoreline strike zone Narrowest Point: Singapore Strait – 1.5nm
  • 26. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-26 XYZ 01/13/15 Malacca Strait Shoreline strike zone Narrowest Point: Singapore Strait – 1.5nm
  • 27. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-27 XYZ 01/13/15 Malacca Strait Indonesia Malaysia Narrowest Point: Singapore Strait – 1.5nm Shoreline strike zone Singapore
  • 28. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-28 XYZ 01/13/15 Alternate Routes Sunda Strait Lombok Strait Shoreline strike zone
  • 29. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-29 XYZ 01/13/15 Sunda Strait Sunda Strait Lombok Strait Sunda Strait Java Sumatra
  • 30. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-30 XYZ 01/13/15 Lombok Strait Sunda Strait Lombok Strait Lombok Strait Bali
  • 31. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-31 XYZ 01/13/15 U.S. National Objectives • Assist South East Asia nation’s efforts to identify and remove terrorist threats within their borders • Prevent South East Asia terrorist organizations from closing Indonesia’s sea lanes and creating a world economic crisis • Protect commercial ships transiting Indonesia’s sea lanes traffic from terrorist attack thereby minimizing costly insurance increases
  • 32. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-32 XYZ 01/13/15 U.S. National Strategy • Support the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) to keep the sea lanes open – ASEAN nations monitor ports and shoreline access to straits – ASEAN coalition partners (including the U.S.) form picket lines at entrances to the straits • Through bi-lateral agreements support Indonesian, Thailand, and Malaysia military and domestic police forces in coordinated counter-terrorism operations against GAM & JI – Economic aid, law enforcement assistance, and cooperative military counter-terrorist operations
  • 33. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-33 XYZ 01/13/15 ASEAN Coalition for Sea Lane Protection • Association of South East Asia Nations providing forces to maintain sea lanes – Indonesia – Malaysia – Philippines – Singapore – Thailand • Coalition partners providing forces to maintain sea lanes – Australia – Britain – China – Japan – United States
  • 34. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-34 XYZ 01/13/15 ASEAN Coalition for Sea Lane Protection Coalition Combatants Coalition Combatants Coalition Combatants Coalition Combatants USCINCPAC PACAF Combatants PACFLT Combatants SOCOM Combatants CINC JTF-Seal Coalition Commands Coalition Commands Coalition CommandsCoalition Commands Operational & Tactical Control USSTATCOMUSTRANSCOM Supporting CINCs Tactical Control Operational Control
  • 35. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-35 XYZ 01/13/15 Sea Lane Protection AOR Indonesia ASEAN Malaysia Thailand Philippines China & Japan Australia United States Great Britain ASEAN Coalition
  • 36. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-36 XYZ 01/13/15 Sea Lane Protection – U.S. Forces Malacca Strait AOR Frigate (FFG-7) 2 Mouth of Malacca Strait Destroyer (DD) 3 Mouth of Malacca Strait MCS-12 1 Malacca Strait - CH-53E helos 8 - SAR helos 2 - EOD team 1 MCM 2 Malacca Strait SSN (Fast Attack) 1 Malacca Strait P-3 3 Singapore Spec. Forces Team 1 Assigned to Indonesia Marine Spec. Forces Company to board ships MC2A* 2 Singapore KC-10* 2 Singapore Makassar Strait AOR PACFLT Assets PACAF Assets Frigate (FFG-7) 2 North of Makassar Strait Destroyer (DD) 2 North of Makassar Strait MCS-12 (retired) 1 Makassar Strait - CH-53E helos 8 - SAR helos 2 - EOD team 1 MCM 2 Makassar Strait SSN (Fast Attack) 1 Makassar Strait P-3 3 Mactan AB, Philippines Spec. Forces Team 1 Assigned to Indonesia Marine Spec. Forces Company to board ships MC2A* 2 Mactan AB, Philippines KC-135* 2 Mactan AB, Philippines SOCOM Assets Platform Qty Location Platform Qty Location *MC2A and Tankers also support U.S. Counter-Terrorist operations
  • 37. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-37 XYZ 01/13/15 Sea Lane Protection – Coalition Forces Frigate (FFG) - ANZAC class 2 South of Lombok Strait Off-shore Patrol Boat (PBG) – Fremantle class 3 South of Lombok Strait Mine Countermeasure (MCM) – Bandicoot class 2 Lombok Strait Frigate (FFG) - Adelaide class 1 North of Lombok Strait Off-shore Patrol Boat (PBG) – Fremantle class 3 Nouth of Lombok Strait Frigate (FFG) - ANZAC class 2 Flores Sea Frigate (FFG) - Adelaide class 2 Flores Sea Off-shore Patrol Boat (PBG) – Fremantle class 6 Flores Sea Off-shore PG (PBG) 4 Flores Sea Mine Countermeasure (MCM) – Huon class 2 Flores Sea Maritime Patrol Aircraft (AP-3C) 8 Darwin, Australia Refueling Aircraft (KC-135) 3 Darwin, Australia Frigate (FFG) – Type 23 Duke Class 2 South of Sunda Strait Frigate (FFG) – Type 22 Broadsword Class 1 South of Sunda Strait Destroyer (DDG) – Type 42 2 North of Sunda Strait Mine Countermeasures (MCMV) – Sandown Class 2 Sundra Strait Frigate (FFG) Type 53HT-H – Jianghu IV Class 3 South China Sea Destroyer (DDG) Type 51 – Luda II Class 2 South China Sea Patrol Boat (PBG) Type 21 – Huangfeng Class 5 South China Sea Frigate (FFG) – Mursame Class 2 South China Sea Destroyer (DDK) – Takanami Class 2 South China Sea Maritime Patrol (P-3C) 5 Kuching, Malaysia Aussie Assets British Assets Platform Qty Location Chinese Assets Japanese Assets
  • 38. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-38 XYZ 01/13/15 Sea Lane Protection – ASEAN Forces Frigate (FFG) – Ahmed Yani Class 2 South Entrance to Malacca Strait Corvette – Kapitan Patimura Class 4 South Entrance to Malacca Strait Patrol Boat (PB) – Kal Kangean Class 8 Malacca Strait Patrol Boat (PB) – Kujang Class 5 Malacca Strait High Speed Patrol Craft – Kodjo Class 12 Malacca Strait Mine Countermeasures (MCM) – Kondor-II Class 3 Malacca Strait & South Entrance Maritime Patrol Aircraft – N22B Searchmaster SAR 5 Malacca Strait Frigate (FFG) – Samadikun Class 3 Karimate Strait, Java Sea Corvette – Kapitan Patimura Class 6 Karimate Strait, Java Sea Patrol Boat (PB) – DKN 504 Class 10 Karimate Strait, Java Sea Mine Countermeasures (MCM) – Kondor II Class 3 Karimate Strait, Java Sea Maritime Patrol Aircraft – N22SL Searchmaster SAR 6 Karimate Strait, Java Sea Frigate (FFG) – Ahmed Yani Class 2 South Entrance to Makassar Strait Corvette – Fatahilah Class 3 South Entrance to Makassar Strait Fast Attack Boat – Sibaru Class 6 Makassar Strait & South Entrance Patrol Boat (PB) – Kal Kangean Class 8 Makassar Strait Maritime Patrol Aircraft – N22 Searchmaster SAR 8 Makassar Strait Frigate (FFG) – Lekiu Class 2 Malacca Stait Corvette – Kasturi Class 2 Malacca Strait Patrol Boat (PB) – Sri Selangor Class 16 Malacca Strait Mine Countermeasures (MCM) – Mahamiru Class 2 Malacca Strait Maritime Patrol Aircraft – B200T Super King Air SAR 4 Malacca Strait Indonesia Assets Platform Qty Location Malaysia Assets
  • 39. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-39 XYZ 01/13/15 Counter-Terrorism Operations Thai Combatants Malaysian Combatants Indonesian Combatants USSOCOM SOCOM Combatants PACAF Combatants Thai Commands Malaysian Commands Indonesian Commands Operational & Tactical Control USSTATCOMUSTRANSCOM Supporting CINCs Operational & Tactical Control Tactical Coordination Operational Coordination
  • 40. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-40 XYZ 01/13/15 Counter-Terrorism Task Force AOR JI: Malaysia JI: Thailand JI: Central Sulawesi, Indonesia GAM: Aceh, Indonesia
  • 41. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-41 XYZ 01/13/15 U.S. Force Structure – Counter Terrorism Aceh/Malacca Strait AOR MC2A* 2 Singapore E-2C 2 Singapore KC-10* 2 Singapore Rivet Joint 1 Singapore F-15E 12 Penang, Malaysia RQ-1B,Predator-B 1(4) Penang, Malaysia RQ-7, Shadow 600 4(3) BandaAceh Aceh, Indonesia Sulawesi/Makassar Strait AOR SOCOM Assets Air Assets MC2A* 1 Mactan AB, Philippines E-2C 2 Mactan AB, Philippines KC-135* 2 Mactan AB, Philippines Rivet Joint 1 Singapore F/A-18 8 Mactan AB, Philippines F-16 8 Mactan AB, Philippines RQ-1B, Predator B 1(4) Ujungpandang, Sulawesi RQ-7, Shadow 600 2(3) Poso, Sulawesi, Indonesia SOCOM Unit Qty Assigned with: Special Forces Team 2 Kopassus, Combat Group I, - Aceh Special Forces Team 1 Kopassus, Combat Group V (Counter- Terrorism) - Aceh ISR Coordination Team 1 Kopassus, Combat Group IV (Intel) - Jakarta Special Forces Team 2 21st GKN Sungei Udang, Malaysia Special Forces Team 1 1st Inf. Div. Changwat Trang, Thailand SOCOM Unit Qty Assigned with: Special Forces Team 2 Kopassus, Combat Group II, Sulawesi * Same assets are supporting USCINCPAC Sea Lane Protection effort
  • 42. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-42 XYZ 01/13/15 MC2A Employment Predator Shadow 600 JTIDS E-2C F-15E MC2A
  • 43. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-43 XYZ 01/13/15 100 300 200 400 500 100 200 300 400 500 B1 B2/CAOC B3 E2-C RC-135W M C 2A KC-135R F-22 (4) Predator A Predator #2 / Predator B 600 NM USN Firescout Orbit Areas SOCOM Teams Bases Predator Orbits Firescout Orbits Kopassus Combat Group I Kopassus Combat Group V 1st Inf /Special Ops 21 GKN Shadow UAV Orbits Terrorist Bombing N S HSV-2
  • 44. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-44 XYZ 01/13/15 Indonesia Malaysia Thailand SOCOM Assets KC-10 Singapore M C 2A RJ Shadow UAV E-2C Predator-B SOCOM Teams 21 GKN 21 GKN 1st Inf. Div./Special Ops F-22(4) Kopassus Combat Group V Kopassus Combat Group 1 F-15E (4) 30 min Gnd Alert MC2A
  • 45. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-45 XYZ 01/13/15 Population Density Sulawesi, Indonesia Kalimantan, Indonesia Global Hawk (SIGINT) 21 GKN Kopassus Combat Group II Kopassus Combat Group II KC-135 F/A-18 (4) 30 min Gnd Alert Mactan AB, PI MC2A F/A-18 (4) E-2C 18001700 Shadow UAV Predator-A/B SOCOM Teams MC2A 1600 Predator A 0 Bases - GS Predator A -100
  • 46. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-46 XYZ 01/13/15 Population Density SOCOM Assets Sulawesi, Indonesia Kalimantan, Indonesia Global Hawk 21 GKN Kopassus Combat Group II Kopassus Combat Group II KC-135 F/A-18 (4) 30 min Gnd Alert Mactan AB, PI MC2A F/A-18 (4) E-2C Shadow UAV Predator-B SOCOM Teams MC2A
  • 47. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-47 XYZ 01/13/15 Population Density SOCOM Assets Sulawesi, Indonesia Kalimantan, Indonesia Global Hawk (SIGINT) 21 GKN Kopassus Combat Group II Kopassus Combat Group II KC-135 F/A-18 (4) 30 min Gnd Alert Mactan AB, PI MC2A F/A-18 (4) E-2C Shadow UAV Predator-A/B SOCOM Teams MC2A Ujungpandang (UAV Base)
  • 48. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-48 XYZ 01/13/15 Indonesia Malaysia SOCOM Assets KC-10 Signapore M C 2A RJ Shadow UAV E-2C Predator-A/B SOCOM Teams 21 GKN 21 GKN 1st Inf. Div./Special Ops F-22(4) Kopassus Combat Group V Kopassus Combat Group 1 F-22 (4) 30 min Gnd Alert MC2A Thailand G -H aw k
  • 49. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-49 XYZ 01/13/15 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 100 200 300 400 500 B1 – Paya Lebar B2 – Penang B3 – Polonia
  • 50. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-50 XYZ 01/13/15 100 300 200 400 500 100 200 300 400 500 B1 B2 B3 E2-C RC-135W M C 2A KC-135R F-22 (4) Predator A Predator A
  • 51. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-51 XYZ 01/13/15 Population Density SOCOM Assets Sulawesi, Indonesia Kalimantan, Indonesia Global Hawk (SIGINT) 21 GKN Kopassus Combat Group II Kopassus Combat Group II KC-135 F/A-18 (4) 30 min Gnd Alert Mactan AB, PI MC2A F/A-18 (4) E-2C Shadow UAV Predator-A/B SOCOM Teams MC2A Ujungpandang (UAV Base)
  • 52. MIT Lincoln Laboratory999999-52 XYZ 01/13/15 Western Theater 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 100 400 300 200 500 500 Base 1