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Team a facebook presentation

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"Team A" final presentation for Consulting Skills & Frameworks, Fall 2012. …

"Team A" final presentation for Consulting Skills & Frameworks, Fall 2012.

Product pitch: "Facebook Stream" - a web browser from Facebook allowing users to seamlessly browse the web while enjoying the tools of Facebook. Stream also allows Facebook to collect unique data about users to offer more relevant and targeted ads, promotions, and information.

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  • DONE
  • DONE
  • ADD SOURCE

    1 billion users
    Enhancing experience– what rockmelt did
    Business cycle, growth stage– not ready to cut costs
  • Davis, Grant. Entrepreneur. June 2012 “Browsing with Friends”
    Asks a variety of questions about user
  • RockMelt user interface
  • MC go back and highlight different features
    Facebook chat
    Notifications
    Quick access to Apps
    Traditional web page
  • **Clean up $6MM cost savings
    **Source
  • DONE

    Based off the partnership between Mozilla and Google, Facebook would make $78M in revenue because it already has a large user network.
    NEED SOURCE FROM REED!!!!! For web browser market share

    http://25labs.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/web-browser-usage-share.jpg

  • Erin looking to finish
  • ** add source
  • ******
  • DONE
  • *******
  • Key milestones in RockMelt history indicate its status as an early-stage, but promising, start-up
  • Search engine industry statistics
  • Search engine financial comparables
    http://clients1.ibisworld.com.libproxy.lib.unc.edu/reports/us/industry/majorcompanies.aspx?entid=1982
  • Search engine financial (cont’d)
  • http://25labs.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/web-browser-usage-share.jpg
  • Advantages of Chrome
    http://www.google.com/googlebooks/chrome/small_34.html
  • http://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/timeline.png?w=640
  • Estimated cost of developing a web browser…
  • …is more than cost of acquiring RockMelt
  • Breakdown of RockMelt valuation
  • http://technorati.com/technology/article/1-billion-facebook-users-now-or/
  • Assumption on number of Facebook mobile-only users
  • Transcript

    • 1. Facebook Stream Team A: Erin Gibson, Zack Hargett, Lexi Jankun, Reed Romine, Mary Catherine Wilkison 1 November 29, 2012 Increasing market value through company acquisition and revenue growth
    • 2. 2 Grow Facebook revenue by expanding into a social networking web browser By year 5, exceed analyst-projected revenue by $1.26B to achieve 20% increase in market value Executive Summary Acquire RockMelt Establish Strategic Partnerships Adapt Stream to Mobile Platform • Integrate software • Become first social network browser • Partner with bing as default search engine • Incorporate apps & ads to drive revenue • Engage mobile-only users • Enhance experience by linking detailed user data
    • 3. Acquire Facebook must increase market value by growing revenue through a social network web browser 3 Cutting cost is not a viable option Opportunity for revenue growth via Web browsers Leverage network to enhance customized experience • Customer expansion • Capital Investments • Advertisement 1 Billion Facebook users Cost Synergies Revenue Growth $30.59 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 0% $25.43 $27.85$30.59$33.67$37.15 5% $25.99 $28.48$31.29$34.45$38.02 10% $26.54 $29.10$31.98$35.23$38.90 15% $27.10 $29.72$32.68$36.01$39.77 20% $27.66 $30.35$33.38$36.79$40.64 25% $28.22 $30.97$34.08$37.58$41.52 30% $28.77 $31.59$34.77$38.36$42.39 Source: M&A Valuation Model
    • 4. Acquire Facebook Stream will leverage Facebook user information through “Likes” & browsing history to customize experience 4 Source: Team Analysis; New York Times Data on User Preferences DataonUserHistory Note: Size of plot denotes number of users Google Chrome • 310 MM users • Data through cookies Facebook • 1 B users • Data through demographic questions & Likes Facebook Stream • Estimated 80 MM users in Y1 • Data though cookies, Likes, & demographic questions Google + • 25 MM users • Data through demographic questions & limited cookies RockMelt • 1.2 MM users • Data through limited cookies & demographic questions
    • 5. Acquire Facebook Stream combines chat, notifications and web browsing to enhance user experience 5 Source: RockMelt Browser
    • 6. Acquire Facebook Stream combines chat, notifications and web browsing to enhance user experience 6 Source: RockMelt Browser
    • 7. Acquire Facebook Stream combines chat, notifications and web browsing to enhance user experience 7 Source: RockMelt Browser
    • 8. Acquire Facebook Stream combines chat, notifications and web browsing to enhance user experience 8 Source: RockMelt Browser
    • 9. Acquire $105 $110 $115 $120 $125 $130 Organic Development Acquiring Rockmelt WebBrowserStart-upCostsFacebook will take advantage of cost and time efficiencies by acquiring RockMelt to create Facebook Stream 9 COST SAVINGS cost savings Acquisition of RockMelt provides for $6MM in cost savings and 2 years time savings in the launching of Stream TIME SAVINGS time savings Assimilation Costs M&A Fees Stand-Alone Value * In Million $USD Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Development Negotiations Stream Launch Due Diligence Adaptions to FB Stream Stream Launch 2013 2014 Source: Team Analysis
    • 10. Establish * In Million $USD Strategic Partnership with Microsoft’s bing will earn Facebook Stream revenues of $105M 10 105 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Revenue Mozilla revenue from Google search deal 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Web Browser Market Share Internet Explorer Firefox Chrome Other Microsoft will partner with Facebook Continue relationship with Mozilla Completely reliant on search traffic Competing Web Browsers Leaving would cause loss of traffic & money $ Case Study Google/Mozilla Source: Extremetech; Computerworld; 25labs
    • 11. Establish Stream + “Facebook Bay” External Ad Network + Partnerships will position Facebook to compete with Google 11 Facebook Google Social Network Web Browser Ad Network Search Engine Facebook Stream Facebook Bay bing Google + Chrome AdSense Google Facebook Bay external ads target Stream users based on “Likes” AND user history (cookies)
    • 12. Establish Developing partnerships with key businesses could increase user engagement and generate $101MM in revenue 12 Paid 35% Free 65% By Year 5, Facebook will generating $101.07MM per year by offering paid applications to Stream users $101 $- $50 $100 $150 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Revenue from Apps 0% 50% 100% Price Breakdown Facebook App Developer App. Store Facebook gain 5% of Paid App. Revenue * In Million $USD Source: Thechromesource; Team Analysis
    • 13. Adapt Expanding Facebook’s browser to the mobile platform will improve ability to customize Stream to user preferences 13 1 Billion 600 MM 113 MM Facebook users Facebook mobile-only users Facebook desktop & mobile users Facebook Stream Mobile can always be with you, on the go Placement Targeting Desktop (News Feed + Side Bar) Desktop News Feed Mobile News Feed 1 2 3 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 1.20% $0.00 $0.10 $0.20 $0.30 $0.40 $0.50 $0.60 $0.70 $0.80 $0.90 $1.00 Desktop (News Feed + Sidebar) Desktop News Feed Mobile News Feed 1 2 3 Cost per Click Click through Rate Source: TechCrunch Source: SEC.gov
    • 14. Impact With 410 MM users adopting Stream by 2017, Facebook will generate $11.9B in 2017 14 $10,645 $11,908 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 StreamRevenue TotalFacebookRevenue Increasing trend of Stream Adopters Among Facebook Users 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 MillionUsers Current Revenue Projection Projected Revenue with Steam Additional Revenue from Stream Non-Stream Adopters Stream Adopters Revenue of $11.9B in 2017 * In Million $USD Source: Team Analysis
    • 15. Impact $26.50 $27.00 $27.50 $28.00 $28.50 $29.00 $29.50 $30.00 $30.50 $31.00 $0.00 $200.00 $400.00 $600.00 $800.00 $1,000.00 $1,200.00 $1,400.00 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 FacebookStockPrice AdditionalRevenuefromStream Facebook Stream will result in $1.26B added revenue in 2017, achieving a stock price of $30.63 15 bing Royalties Other Search Engine Royalties App. Purchases Advertisements * In Million $USD In bing Royalties In Other Search Engine Royalties In App. Purchases In Advertisement Source: Team Analysis; See Financial Appendix
    • 16. Impact Risk & Mitigation 16 Risk Rating Risk Mitigation Strategy Rockmelt will not allow Facebook to acquire Leverage ability to discontinue current partnership and pursue acquisition of similar companies. Insufficient customer demand for Facebook browser Implement aggressive marketing campaign to raise user awareness Uncertainty surrounding bing partnership acceptance Seek partnership with Yahoo! or other search engine X X Probability Impact X Source: Team Analysis
    • 17. 17 Grow Facebook revenue by expanding into a social networking web browser By year 5, exceed analyst-projected revenue by $1.26B to achieve 20% increase in market value Executive Summary Acquire RockMelt Establish Strategic Partnerships Adapt Stream to Mobile Platform • Integrate software • Become first social network browser • Partner with bing as default search engine • Incorporate apps & ads to drive revenue • Engage mobile-only users • Enhance experience by linking detailed user data
    • 18. General  Introduction to Team A  Analysis of alternative ideas Due Diligence - RockMelt  Key leaders (Management)  Key Investors  Milestones Social Networking Marketing  Industry Data  Facebook Market Share of Social Networks  Growth Strategies  LinkedIn Revenue Streams Search Engine Industry Analysis  Microsoft Facebook Partnership  Search Engine Industry Market Shares  Search Engine Financials (1, 2)  Web Browser Market Shares  Advantages of Chrome Marketing Plan  Target Market  Marketing Examples (1, 2) Finance  Costs ◦ Developing web browser ◦ Acquiring RockMelt ◦ Conversion costs  Valuation of RockMelt  Valuation of Facebook’s Current Stock Price  Cost vs. Revenue Sensitivity  Team Income Statement Analysis (1,2)  Facebook Annual Income Statement  Advertising Revenue  Applications Revenue  Stock Price Growth with Total Revenue  Royalties from Search Engines  Comparables ◦ Google Chrome Adoption Rate ◦ Flash Player Adoption Rate Mobile  Growth of Facebook Users  Facebook Ads on Various Media  Facebook Mobile Only Users
    • 19. 19 Erin Gibson • B.S. in Business Administration • Double Major in Spanish Zack Hargett • B.S. in Business Administration • Concentration: Consulting Reed Romine • B.S. in Business Administration • Concentration: Consulting Mary Catherine Wilkison • B.S. in Business Administration • Concentration: Finance and Consulting • Minor in French Lexi Jankun • B.S. in Business Administration • Concentration: Consulting • Double Major in Spanish
    • 20. 20 Analysis of alternative ideas for increasing market value Alternative Capital Investment Feasibility Long-term impact Value to customers Value to users Buy Twitter Monetize Mobile App Organic browser development Create professional network Acquire RockMelt Source: Team Analysis
    • 21. 21 Eric Vishria, age:48 Chief Executive Officer Formerly VP of Marketing, Opsware (later acquired by Hewlett-Packard for $1.65 BB). B.S., Stanford University Tim Howes, age:52 Chief Technology Officer Previously developed Netscape browser; considered a global leader in software engineering. Ph.D., University of Michigan Key members of RockMelt management team ensure company is a relatively safe investment Source: RockMelt.com; Crunchbase
    • 22. 22 Marc Andreessen Investor Currently sits on Board of Directors for Facebook. Ben Howowitz Investor Former co-founder and CEO of Opsware (acquired by HP); VP of Business Technology Optimization for Software at HP. RockMelt has solid capital backing, including one current Facebook Board member Source: RockMelt.com; Crunchbase
    • 23. 23 November 2010 June 2011 October 2012 Key milestones in RockMelt history indicate its status as an early- stage, but promising, start-up Source: RockMelt.com
    • 24. 24 Social Networking industry data Source: IBISWorld, Social Networking Industry Report
    • 25. 25 Facebook has 60.7% of market share and over 845 million users Source: IBISWorld, Social Networking Industry Report
    • 26. 26 Growth strategies Source: IBISWorld, Social Networking Industry Report
    • 27. 27 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 MillionsofDollars Revenue LinkedIn Revenue from Monetized Solutions Premium Subscriptions Marketing Solutions Talent Solutions LinkedIn had 90 million users at the end of 2011; the company now has 187 million users Due to an increase in the number of users, LinkedIn has generated more revenue from monetized solutions Source: Forbes.com
    • 28. 28 Facebook Microsoft’s Bing • In 2007, Microsoft spent $240 MM for a 1.6% stake in Facebook • In 2010, Microsoft’s bing and Facebook teamed up for a “social search” Source: Forbes: Microsoft Adds New Friends to Revamped Bing Search Service Why Facebook should partner with Microsoft’s Bing
    • 29. 29 Search Engine industry statistics Source: IBISWorld, Search Engine Industry Report
    • 30. 30 Search engine financials Source: IBISWorld, Search Engine Industry Report
    • 31. 31 Search engine financial (cont’d) Source: IBISWorld, Search Engine Industry Report
    • 32. 32 Web Browser market share Source: 25labs
    • 33. 33  Able to identify security concerns on individual tabs and prevent from spreading elsewhere (Sandboxing- process isolation)  Javascript virtual machine  Effective limiting of memory use  Use of history to enable quick access to most visited sites  Compatible with APPLICATIONS  PlugIns separated into its own process Advantages of Chrome Source: Google Chrome
    • 34. 34 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Age Groups Mean # of friends on main network Median # of friends on main network Social Network marketing would be most effective if targeted towards Millennials Source: Mintel Oxygen: Overview of Social Networking
    • 35. 35 New! Try Facebook Stream today 310 MM unique daily visitors 3% download from home page 9 MM downloads Simply placing advertisement on Facebook home page may yield substantial downloads Source: Pingdom.com
    • 36. 36 Facebook Stream has arrived! Take this tour to learn about the all new Facebook oriented web browser, then download the browser for free! Worldwide Facebook update will publicize Stream to all 1B Facebook users Source: Team Analysis
    • 37. 37 •Effort Applied (E) = ab(KLOC)b b [man months] •Development Time (D) = cb(Effort Applied)d b [months] •People required (P) = Effort Applied / Development Time [count] Basic Constructive Cost Model •Software project (Classified as “semi-detached”) •ab = 3.0 •bb = 1.12 •cb = 2.5 •Db = 0.35 Assumptions •Codebase Size: 6,449,950 lines •Estimated Effort:1,952 person-years •Average Employee Salary: $65,000 Inputs Estimated Organic Development Costs: $127 MM Estimated cost of developing a web browser… Source: Team Analysis
    • 38. 38 • $114.29 MM RockMelt Valuation • $1.5 MM in total acquisition fees Assumptions • $5.2 MM Development/ Conversion Costs Estimated Acquisition + Development Costs: $121 MM …is more than cost of acquiring RockMelt Source: Team Analysis
    • 39. 39 160 Employees on project $60,000 avg. salary 6 month duration of conversion $5.2 MM Total Conversion Cost Assumptions Breakdown of conversion costs Source: Team Analysis
    • 40. 40 $40 MM total 35% sold in equity $114.29 MM Assumption Valuation VC Funding raised Breakdown of RockMelt valuation Source: Rockmelt.com
    • 41. 41 Valuation of Facebook’s current Stock Price Source: Yahoo! Finance, Google Finance; M&A Valuation Model; SEC Facebook Inc. Form 10-Q
    • 42. 42 Cost vs. Revenue Sensitivity test to gain 20% increase in stock price Projected 5 year Revenue according to current Yahoo! Analyst estimates Revenue with added 2% increase over analyst estimates 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 4,756.7 5,804.8 6,916.6 8,093.4 9,335.9 10,645.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 4,756.7 6,025.9 7,315.6 8,721.7 10,250.5 11,908.4 Source: Yahoo! Finance, Google Finance, M&A Valuation Model
    • 43. 43 Current Profit & Loss of Facebook 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Revenue Zynga $696.58 $830.00 $971.20 $1,120.31 $1,277.40 Advertisements $5,108.24 $6,086.64 $7,122.16 $8,215.62 $9,367.58 Total Revenue $5,805 $6,917 $8,093 $9,336 $10,645 Cost & Expenses Cost of revenue 860.00$ 1,032.00$ 1,238.40$ 1,486.08$ 1,783.30$ R&D 388.00$ 504.40$ 655.72$ 852.44$ 1,108.17$ General and administrative 707.00$ 777.70$ 855.47$ 941.02$ 1,035.12$ Total costs & expenses 1,955.00$ 2,314.10$ 2,749.59$ 3,279.53$ 3,926.58$ Gross Profit $3,849.82 $4,602.53 $5,343.77 $6,056.40 $6,718.40 Addl. Profit & Loss from Stream millions 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Addl. Revenue Bing Royalties $105.00 $111.43 $128.57 $167.14 $190.71 Other Search Engine Royalties $18.53 $19.60 $22.21 $27.34 $30.72 App. Purchases $13.27 $27.93 $50.27 $73.17 $101.07 Advertisements $84.32 $239.99 $427.28 $646.97 $940.89 Total Revenue $221 $399 $628 $915 $1,263 Income Statement for Current Yahoo! Analyst estimates and addl. Revenue Source: Yahoo! Finance, Google Finance; M&A Valuation Model; SEC Facebook Inc. Form 10-Q
    • 44. 44 Total Profit & Loss of Facebook with Stream Browser 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Revenue Zynga $696.58 $830.00 $971.20 $1,120.31 $1,277.40 Bing Royalties $105.00 $111.43 $128.57 $167.14 $190.71 Other Search Engine Royalties $18.53 $19.60 $22.21 $27.34 $30.72 App. Purchases $13.27 $27.93 $50.27 $73.17 $101.07 Advertisements $5,192.56 $5,036.99 $6,143.32 $7,333.73 $8,650.65 Total Revenue $6,026 $7,316 $8,722 $10,251 $11,908 Cost & Expenses Cost of revenue 860.00$ 1,032.00$ 1,238.40$ 1,486.08$ 1,783.30$ R&D 388.00$ 504.40$ 655.72$ 852.44$ 1,108.17$ General and administrative 707.00$ 777.70$ 855.47$ 941.02$ 1,035.12$ Total costs & expenses 1,955.00$ 2,314.10$ 2,749.59$ 3,279.53$ 3,926.58$ Gross Profit $4,070.94 $5,001.48 $5,972.10 $6,971.01 $7,981.78 Percent Growth over last year 23% 19% 17% 14% Income Statement for Facebook with addition of Stream Source: Yahoo! Finance, Google Finance; M&A Valuation Model; SEC Facebook Inc. Form 10-Q
    • 45. 45 Facebook Annual Income Statement and expense assumptions In Millions of USD (except for per share items) 12 months ending 2011- 12-31 12 months ending 2010-12- 31 12 months ending 2009- 12-31 12 months ending 2008-12- 31 Asssumed Growth Revenue 3,711.00 1,974.00 777 272 Other Revenue, Total - - - - Total Revenue 3,711.00 1,974.00 777 272 Cost of Revenue, Total 860 493 223 124 Percentage growth 74.44% 121.08% 79.84% 20.00% Gross Profit 2,851.00 1,481.00 554 148 Selling/General/Admin. Expenses, Total 707 305 205 156 Percentage growth 132% 49% 31% 10.00% Research & Development 388 144 87 47 Percentage growth 169.44% 65.52% 85.11% 30.00% Depreciation/Amortization - - - - Interest Expense(Income) - Net Operating - - - - Unusual Expense (Income) - - - - Other Operating Expenses, Total - - - - Total Operating Expense 1,955.00 942 515 327 Operating Income 1,756.00 1,032.00 262 -55 Interest Income(Expense), Net Non-Operating - - - - Gain (Loss) on Sale of Assets - - - - Other, Net 10 -1 2 -1 Income Before Tax 1,695.00 1,008.00 254 -56 Source: Yahoo! Finance, Google Finance; M&A Valuation Model; SEC Facebook Inc. Form 10-Q
    • 46. 46 Google 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Revenue $8,580 10,733.58$ 11,701.75$ 12,757.25$ 13,907.95$ 15,162.45$ 16,530.10$ Advertisements $8,323 $10,412 $11,351 $12,375 $13,491 $14,708 $16,034 Facebook 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Revenue $5,804.82 7,546.27$ 8,323.53$ 9,180.86$ 10,126.48$ 11,169.51$ 12,319.97$ Advertisements* $4,934.10 $6,414.33 $7,075.00 $7,803.73 $8,607.51 $9,494.09 $10,471.98 Stream 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Revenue $221.12 $398.94 $628.33 $914.62 $1,263.39 Advertisements $84.32 $239.99 $427.28 $646.97 $940.89 0 Percent Revenue from Ad. 38% 60% 68% 71% 74% Revenue growth based on yahoo! Estimates Advertising Revenue Source: The Verge
    • 47. 47 * three months ended September 30, 2012 Google 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Revenue 11,526.00$ 14,419.03$ 15,719.62$ 17,137.53$ 18,683.34$ 20,368.57$ 22,205.82$ Applications $173 $216 $236 $257 $280 $306 $333 Stream 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Revenue $221.12 $398.94 $628.33 $914.62 $1,263.39 Application $13.27 $27.93 $50.27 $73.17 $101.07 *based on Google chrom Percent Total Revenue 6% 7% 8% 8% 8% Revenue growth based on yahoo! Estimates Next Year Next 5 Years Google 25.10% 9.02% Facebook 30% 10.30% Applications Revenue *based on Google chrome, account for time taken to penetrate market Source: Yahoo! Finance, Google Finance; M&A Valuation Model; SEC Facebook Inc. Form 10-Q
    • 48. 48 Stock Price Growth with Total Revenue $23.00 $24.00 $25.00 $26.00 $27.00 $28.00 $29.00 $30.00 $31.00 $32.00 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Revenue Stock Price Source: M&A Valuation Model; Team Analysis
    • 49. 49 Revenue 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Bing $105 111.43$ 128.57$ 167.14$ 190.71$ 225.00$ Other Search Engines $18.53 19.59842 22.21154 27.33728 30.71604 35.39658 Royalties from Search Engines Mozilla Revenue from Search Royalties 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Revenue from Google Search Royalties $49 $52 $60 $78 $89 $105 $138 Growth From Previous Year 6.12% 15.38% 30.00% 14.10% 17.98% 31.05% Revenue from other search engines $57.65 $61.18 $70.59 $91.76 $104.71 $123.53 $161.88 Growth From Previous Year 5.77% 13.33% 23.08% 12.36% 15.24% 23.69% Stream Revenue Based on Mozilla Revenue Source: Computer World
    • 50. 50 Source: The developer’s guide to browser adoption rates Google Chrome adoption rate
    • 51. 51 Source: The developer’s guide to browser adoption rates Flash Player adoption rate
    • 52. 52 Current growth rate: 5.54% Source: 1 Billion Facebook Users: Now or Later, Technorati Growth of Facebook users
    • 53. 53 Source: Tech Crunch Facebook Advertisements on various media
    • 54. 54 Assumption on number of Facebook mobile-only users Source: Team Analysis