Housing Market Outlook
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
Chief Economist
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSยฎ
Presentation at NAR Midyear Legislative Meetings
Washington, D.C.
May 12, 2011
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Residential Housing Market Outlook - NAR's Chief Economist Lawrence Yun
1. Housing Market Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSยฎ Presentation at NAR Midyear Legislative Meetings Washington, D.C. May 12, 2011
18. Qualified Renters who can buy a Median Priced Home 2005 2010 Median Price $219,000 Median Price $173,100 Mortgage Rate 6% Mortgage Rate 5% Down payment 10% Down payment 10% Monthly Payment $1,180 Monthly Payment $840 Qualifying Income $56,600 Qualifying Income $40,300 How many renters have at least this income? 7,700,000 (21% of renters) How many renters have at least this income? 15,000,000 (39% of renters)
20. Distress Sales: 30% to 40% of Transactions Will Remain Significant for Next 2 years
21. # of Serious Delinquent Mortgagesโฆ Mostly Borrowers prior to 2009 (90+ days late or in foreclosure process) In 2010, there were 1.5 million distressed salesโฆ need to wait 2.7 years
33. Current Savings Rate = 6% Takes 9 years to save $20,000 based on average $2,200 per year
34.
35. CPI Inflation and PPI Inflation (% change from one year ago) Prices falling on consumer electronic products : Smartphone1 = $200 to Smartphone2 = $200 is computed as falling prices; even though your wallet did not get any relief