Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
2. 2
I Overview of the macroeconomic situation
II Overview of the Banking sector in Estonia
III Swedbank Estonia
- Market shares/volumes
- Financial results
- Credit portfolio
4. 4
Estonian macroeconomic environment
• 2006-2007 Estonian rapid GDP growth was based on internal consumption and
inflow of external money
• Now GDP growth is negative (-0,5%, Eurostat)
• Consumer confidence is dropping bringing down internal consumption
• Residential real estate market is illiquid and prices are down around 20 %
• Import is declining (-6% in August yoy), export growth is still strong (+8% in August
yoy)
• Economy is rebalancing, but further development depends on success in building
more competitive export companies.
• Dependence on foreign funding still high – loan deposit ratio ca 189%
• KEY Issues:
– How are our export target countries economies doing?
– Access to liquidity?
5. 5
GDP growth has dropped to negative area
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008p 2011p
6. 6
Belief into the future has vanished
But there is strong effect of international financial crisis
Confidence indexes
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
May-02 May-03 May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08
industry
consumer
construction
retail
service
7. 7
Low confidence is reflected in the consumption
Annual growth of retail sales
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08
retail total cars and related items other goods clothes furnishings etc
During the last months the car sales down average by 38%, incl. new
cars 24%, used cars 47%
8. 8
Without consumption there is no production …
Growth of industrial production
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08
industrial production
manufacturing industry production
export sales
internal market sales
9. 9
But rumors about death of core Estonian export are
exaggerated
Annual export growth
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08
-400%
-300%
-200%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
electronics passanger cars other goods mineral products (rhs)
10. 10
Labor cost per hour in Euros/ 2006
0 10 20 30 40
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Finland
Sweden
Germany
11. 11
There is no dominant sector in Estonian export
(Jan-Aug 2008, change in the brackets)
groceries (13.8%)
chemical
products (18.3%)
electronics
(+13.2%)
machinery etc
(+7.8%)
vehicles (-0.1%)
others (6.5%)
textiles
(-1.8%) mineral products
(-21.2%)
wood, paper
(-2.7%)
13. 13
The components of CAD, % to GDP
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2007 2008 6M
goods and services FDI reinvested
FDI dividends interests
other private sector return/transfers EU funds
Estonian government payments
14. 14
Real estate market: Estonia
Gradual correction in residential market since April 2007
Market situation
• Lower numbers of transactions, longer sale
periods and decreasing prices in residential real
estate
• Apartment prices down -22% from peak in Apr’07.
Further decrease is likely.
• Difficult to sell apartments in unfinished buildings
• Largest decrease in transactions of land plots due
to higher construction costs and higher risk to
complete the construction without a profit
Market outlook
• Several developers have liquidity problems and
stock of unsold apartments is increasing. It is
likely that prices on new apartments will continue
to decrease
• Risk of tenants reducing their office areas. Start-
up office projects and office buildings with weak
concepts and poor quality will be most affected
• The quality of tenant mix, rental agreements,
location, popularity of retail centers will be crucial 10
12
14
16
18
20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
EUR/m2/month
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Vacancyrate
Rent rate Vacancy rate
Tallinn apartment price and transaction development
Tallinn office rent and vacancy development
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08
EUR/m2
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Nooftransactions
No of deals (rhs) Average price (lhs)
Source:
* Residential data – Estonia land board
** Office data – credit analysts data
20. 20
Highlights
• Long-term focus maintained on core strategic strengths - performance culture,
credit skills, wide distribution and strong team
• Short-term focus on managing the business through the economic cycle with
particular focus on productivity and asset quality
• Steps taken in the beginning of 2007 have slowed down credit growth and the
trend is expected to continue throughout 2008. As a result, minor deterioration in
market shares has been visible and is also expected going forward. However, no
major change is expected.
• Employee productivity is being monitored closely and employee growth will be
negative during 2008 given slowdown in volume growth. Operational efficiency
program is gradually rolled out in all countries.
• Credit teams have been strengthened and work-out processes are being reviewed
to a more pro-active stance. Asset quality indicators (credit losses, overdues) have
risen according to expectations
21. 21
Loans and Deposits
Deposits (group consolidated) *
90
117
-115
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08
EURm
Loans (incl leasing&factoring)
change *
229
255
118
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
EURm
Loan (incl leasing&factoring)
change 9m 2008
602
1,411
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
BB Est Market
EURm
Deposits' change 9m 2008
(bank solo)
155
408
-50
200
450
700
BB Est Market
EURm
Loan (inl leasing and factoring) to deposits
100%
150%
200%
250%
12/06 03/07 06/07 09/07 12/07 03/08 06/08 09/08
Rest of the Market Swedbank Estonia
* According to Management reporting (consolidated). Trade Finance portfolio was taken into Estonian books from
January (loan +111 m EUR; deposits +71 m EUR) This change was eliminated from 1Q 2008 change
24. 24
Performance against mid-term financial
targets
*Net loan losses = (changes in general and special provisions + net write offs) / credit portfolio at the beginning of the
year
<0.35%0.55%0.76%Net loan losses
168.9%
38%
32%
-14%
YTD 2008
<42%
>20%
>20%
BBTarget
168.9%Loan to deposit ratio
36%Cost-income
32%ROE on actual equity
-15%EBT growth, YoY
Q3 2008Estonia
33. 33
Large corporate portfolio
Credit losses relatively isolated in the real estate sector
Estonia Rating 6&7 exposures by industries
0 20 40 60 80 100
Commercial real
estate
Production
Retailing
Transportation
Other EURm
Q4 2007
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Large corporate risk profile
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1 1- 2 2- 3 3- 4 4- 5 5- 6 6- 7
Q4 2007
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
• Downgrades in large corporate (exposure >
EUR 0.8m) portfolio has been
counterbalanced with lending to customers
with low risk
• The main part of 6&7 ratings comes from
real estate sector (in particular residential
real estate development & early
development)
34. 34
Lending by sectors
Portfolio, (9053 EURm) Sept 2008
Other
22%
Individuals
44%
Transport
5%
Retail &
Wholesale
5%
Real-estate
mgmt
15%
Construction
3%
Industry
6%
35. 35
Real estate portfolio
Most sensitive part of portfolio to current changes in macro
environment. Developments according to expectation.
• The residential real estate development is the most
sensitive sector in Baltic Banking portfolio.
Sensitivity’ has started to appear in overdue and
default figures of corporate portfolio.
• Around 60% from total Real Estate
portfolio are cash flow generating
properties with good tenant mix.
• Properties under development process
(25% of RE portfolio) are currently affected the
most by decreasing prices and liquidity in the
market.
• Additional defaults in residential real estate
development sector are anticipated in 2008, but no
major surprises are expected due to previously
implemented portfolio limitations and individual
level monitoring. Restructuring capacity has been
put in place.
Real Estate
23%
6%
25%
25%
15%
6%
Office
Production &
Warehouse
Residential
Retail
Land plots
Other
36. 36
Other sectors under close watch
Transportation
Trucking companies are facing problems due to increasing fuel prices and lagging freight rates. This
global problem has started to reflect in Baltic Banking provisions (especially in SME segments) since the
beginning of the year.
Retail & wholesale
Well performing sector with low levels of overdues, but potentially vulnerable to decreasing consumption
Wood processing
Raw material price increase coupled with sales price downwards pressure have a negative impact on
Baltic wood processing industry. Current portfolio quality is around average with only few problem cases
observed. Additional problems may occur after export duties will be imposed on Russian round wood as
there is dependence on imported round wood in Estonia.
* Overdues over 60 days / 12 months old portfolio
38. 38
Mortgage delinquency rates*
Percentage of outstanding amount of loans
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Swedbank
Estonia
USA
UK
Spain
Australia
Canada
France
Finland
Portfolio quality better than in more stable
developed markets
*Mortgages >90 days in overdues / portfolio
Note: Loans refer to mortgages for all countries except Finland and Italy where they include all loans to the households sector.
For Italy, they refer to new bad debts during the year as a percentage of outstanding loans.
39. 39
Mortgage portfolio
Mortgage risk profile
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Portfolio, Dec-07 Portfolio, Sept-08
0
50
100
150
200
250
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Growth Portfolio (right hand scale)
Portfolio
• Employers in difficulties – lower workload, loss of work, problems with salary (drop or delay in payment): mainly in
companies connected to real estate, construction, transport, industrial goods, furniture and wood industry
• Change of employment
Main reasons for payment difficulty
40. 40
Mortgage LTV (indexed market values)
Portfolio average LTV below 60%
• Apartment / private house price drop in EE (- 22% from peak)
has reduced positive effect from portfolio ‘maturing’
• Higher LTV portfolio issued for safe ‘home loan’ segment
• No difference observed in overdue / default levels for ‘high’
and ‘low’ LTV segments.
Estonia
64%
68%63%
0
250
500
750
1000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
EURm
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
21yAverage maturity
59%LTV, total portfolio - August '08
*Should be treated as conservative evaluation (do not
account for guarantees and other non-residential RE
collaterals)
EE
Indexed LTV values and
maturity for private apartments
/ houses*
Mortgage LTV and portfolio by year of origination
Mortgage portfolio - LTV
0%
10%
20%
0-
10%
10-
20
20-
30
30-
40
40-
50
50-
60
60-
70
70-
80
80-
90
90-
100
>100
Back book, Sept 08
41. 41
Summary
• Growth of Estonian economy has stopped
• Resulting fast rebalancing of the economy.
• Still high dependence on foreign funding (but not directly from the
international markets)
• Swedbank Estonia is showing relatively strong results, yoy income declined
by 14% caused by increasing loan losses and losses from equities trading.
• Efficiency still high
• The Bank’s main activity is managing credit portfolio and improving
efficiency
• Credit portfolio quality is deteriorating. Residential real estate development
under growing stress. No spillover to other sectors.
43. 43
Portfolio quality
Credit losses driven by real estate defaults
• Credit losses mostly driven by worsening macro situation
• Real estate (in particular residential real estate development projects) is the main driver of credit losses
• Trend is in line with updated credit loss forecast level
Estonia
0.55%31.6Total
0.06%0.1- Other
0.34%0.6- Car leasing
1.79%3.0- Consumer products
1.30%1.0- Revolving
0.13%2.7- Mortgage
0.27%7.5Private individuals
0.67%6.4SME/SSE companies (exposure <0.8m EUR)
0.32%2.1- Other
-0.16%-0.4- Transportation
0.45%0.8- Retailing
0.43%1.0- Production
1.76%14.3- Commercial real estate
0.84%17.8Rated companies (exposure >0.8m EUR)
RatioEURmNet loan losses, YTD 9m 2008
44. 44
Key financials
Estonia
29 bp57 bp50 bp58 bp76 bpNet loan losses
2.57%
38.0%
32.2%
83
153
153
113
298
YTD
2008
2.75%
36.0%
40.0%
131
178
178
107
298
YTD
2007
-7%
-37%
-15%
-15%
5%
-1%
12%
14%
Q3
% ∆YoY
-261
2
3
3
-2
5
-115
118
Q3
∆ QoQ
2,789
2.41%
39.9%
31.5%
26
49
49
40
99
4,998
8,128
Q2
2008
-36%
-14%
-14%
6%
0%
YTD
% ∆ YoY
4428EVA on allocated equity
2,7292,528Employees (FTE)2
105104Revenues
3638Expenses
2.74%
34.4%
38.5%
62
62
4,360
7,217
Q3
2007
52EBT
8,246Loans
4,883Deposits
2.76%Net interest margin
36.3%Cost-income
32.2%Return on equity1
52Net income
Q3
2008
in millions of EUR
1 ROE is calculated based on Swedbank capital allocation: 8.4% for the Baltics
2 without Group and IT
45. 45
Provisioning principles
• Credit portfolio losses are recognised through special and portfolio provisions
• Main guidelines for estimating provisions:
• Key regulations for provision estimation are: provisioning principles and provisioning rates
• Supplementary regulations are: LGD methodology and rating methodology
• Current provisions constitute 1.05% of credit portfolio (111 EURm portfolio provisions and 106 EURm
special provisions)
• General and special provision rates are back-tested once per year. Historically provisions have always
covered loan losses with a reserve
product specific LGDOverdue >90 daysFixed rate based on product typeRetail
fixed LGD (based on asset type for
leasing)
Overdue >90 daysFixed rate for all portfolioSME
Individual assessment based on
Net present value (based on
discounted value of revalued
collateral and cash flow)
Rating 6 - 7
default frequency (based on rating) *
LGD (based on credit analyst estimate)
Large corporate
Special provisioning for
impaired assets
Impairment trigger
Portfolio provisions
(for performing portfolio)
Portfolio segment
LGD – loss given default
46. 46
Regular process of outstanding loan review
• Portfolio quality improvement measures introduced already in 2007
– Increased risk margin in certain sectors (eg real-estate)
– Portfolio limitation and close individual level monitoring for higher risk segments
– Stricter product conditions (LTV, service ratio, previous credit history). Ongoing review
and adjustments Improved credit assessment process through better credit decision
support applications (scoring/rating tools)
• Share of real estate sector decreasing, existing portfolio regularly scrutinized
• Strengthened risk units
– Increased number of people dealing with problem loans
– Strengthened workout team
– Increasing cooperation with Swedabnk FR&R team
– Improved the quality and increased frequency of portfolio quality reporting
• Targets for new origination quality
• Regular loan review process includes
– Overall portfolio stress test once a year
– Extensive portfolio analysis 2x per year, monthly/quarterly portfolio reviews + ad hoq
individual portfolio deep-dive analysis
– Monthly "watch list” report
– IRB portfolio scoring 1x per month
• On the individual loan basis:
– Client rating review minimum 1x per year + review subject to material events
– Rating classes 5 and higher are subject to more frequent assessment
– Quarterly financials/covenants assessment
– For SME/SSE and private portfolio weekly overdue report (with client names identified)
47. 47
Credit quality management process
• Proactive management of watch list clients
– Private clients - communication on step-by-step actions to take before falling into
overdues. Development of standard remedial action to ensure serviceability of the credit
(assistance in family budget planning, restructuring of payments, postponement of
payments for temporary income loss; assistance in voluntary sale of assets)
– Corporate clients - proactive communication, frequent client meetings and positive
attitude to find solutions
• Overdue management - concentrates on time horizon from occurrence of distress situation
(either through late payment or on the bases of client information) to moving credit over to
restructuring or workout phase. The primary focuses in overdue management is:
– Process design for fast and prudent management of overdues, clear process ownership
– Constant re-evaluation of the tactics on their effectiveness and adequacy
– Clearly set timing and channel of client contacts
– Build capacity to work with distressed clients and adequate training of employees
– Centralized decision making
– Internal target setting and incentives to reach targets
– Up to time reporting and follow up on taken activities
• Distressed debt restructuring
– Defined tactics of restructuring. Solutions to ensure client serviceability of the debt
(based on industry of the client, collateral structure)
– Extended capacity to work with distressed clients
– Effective solutions for collected collaterals handling