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How Data-Driven Decisions *Might* Help Indie Ebook Authors Reach More Readers
The presentation discusses how data-driven decisions can assist authors in reaching more readers through platforms like Smashwords, which allows self-publishing and ebook distribution. Key findings include that price, word count, and persistent marketing efforts impact sales success, with longer ebooks generally performing better. Additionally, the data reveals that free ebooks generate the most downloads, suggesting strategic pricing is crucial for maximizing revenue.
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How Data-Driven Decisions *Might* Help Indie Ebook Authors Reach More Readers
- 1. MONEY MONEY MONEY: HowData-Driven Decisions *Might* Help Authors Reach More Readers RT Booklovers Convention April 11, 2012 Mark Coker Founder, Smashwords Twitter: @markcoker
- 2. This presentation wasfirst given at the Chicago RT Booklovers convention on April 11, 2012 On April 25, I modified it to include notes so Slideshare viewers have better context through which to understand the data Visit http://www.slideshare.net/smashwords/presentations to access a wide variety of other presentations from Mark Coker
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- 4. My wife Lesleyannis a former reporter for Soap Opera Weekly Magazine. We wrote a novel, Boob Tube, that explores the wild and wacky world of daytime television
- 5. Despite Representation byTop Literary Agency, Every Publisher Rejected it • Previous soap opera-themed novels had not performed well in the marketplace • Publishers reluctant to take a chance on the book • The experience opened my eyes to Big Publishing
- 6. The Big PublisherChallenge • Books judged on perceived commercial potential • Publishers unable to take a risk on every author • Thousands of great writers denied opportunity to reach readers • Books forced out of print too soon
- 7. My Answer: Smashwords •Ebooks !! • Provide writers free tools to become their own ebook publishers • Open up the printing press to all • Open up distribution to major ebook stores • Ebooks are immortal • Smashwords is now the world’s largest distributor of self-published ebooks
- 8. Indie ebooks publishedat Smashwords 100000 92,000 + 80000 60000 40000 28,800 20000 6,000 140 0 2008 2009 2010 2011
- 9. How Smashwords Distribution Works • UPLOAD • Upload a Microsoft Word file, formatted to our Style Guide • Free conversion to 9 ebook formats • Ready for immediate sale online • DISTRIBUTE • Distribution to multiple major retailers • GET PAID • Author receives 85%+ of net = 60% list from major retailers
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- 11. Smashwords Makes EbookPublishing and Distribution Easy
- 12. WRITING A GREATBOOK IS DIFFICULT (and nothing is more important than a great book)
- 13. YOU WROTE ASUPER FAB BOOK
- 14. Let’s Examine DataThat Provides Clues to Possible Viral Catalysts
- 15. What’s a ViralCatalyst? • A viral catalyst is something that makes your book more available, accessible, desirable and enjoyable to readers • Read the Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success (it’s FREE!) to learn how viral catalysts spur word-of-mouth
- 16. Navigating Data-speak (the dangers of “average”)
- 17. ??? Useful (and not-so-useful)discoveries start with simple questions
- 18. ??? So I asked questions We looked at about nine months of sales data, aggregated across the Smashwords distribution network Some findings are useful, some were just fun
- 19. Smashwords Distribution Network
- 20. Q: Do authors whochange prices frequently sell more books?
- 21. Impact of PriceChanges • Conclusions not clear cut • Small sample sizes of Top 10, Top 40 not statistically significant • Not a clear cause and effect of price changes to increased sales • Quite possible authors who change prices frequently are also promoting their books more actively
- 22. Impact of PriceChanges
- 23. Q: If ebooks areimmortal, how do sales develop over time?
- 24. How Sales Develop • This set of data looks at aggegrated “Classes” of all titles published in a certain month, are still published, and how their sales developed from month one to month two to (etc…) • Key findings: • Strong overall growth as ebook market develops and some titles achieve viral word of mouth • A lot of randomness: Different classes, even separated by one month, exhibit dramatically different growth patterns • Could speak to the outsize influence of a small number of breakout hits in each class
- 25. Smashwords Class ofJune 2009
- 26. Smashwords Class ofJuly 2009
- 27. Smashwords Class ofAugust 2009
- 28. Smashwords Class ofJanuary 2009
- 29. Q: How might anindividual title develop at a retailer?
- 30. How Sales Develop:Single Retailer, Single Title • This set of data looks at individual titles at the Apple iBookstore • Key findings: • Different books develop differently over time • Sales rise and fall, then rise and fall again, based on various factors (randomness, luck, author promotions, new title releases, retailer promos) • If authors don’t maintain persistent presence across all retailers, they miss the spikes and miss opportunity to harvest the benefit • Unlike print books, which quickly go out of print, ebooks are immortal and can yield income for years
- 31. Slow boil, breakout,slow boil, breakout • This title was selling relatively well (5-10 copies a day) then benefited from major national press coverage (spike #1) then feature placement in Apple email promo (spike #2). After each spike, sales settled at higher level than previous.
- 32. Slow boil, slowbuild, breakout, slow boil • This title did nothing for a month, but then started growing organically through word of mouth. This book is likely to enjoy many many years of solid performance as new readers discover it.
- 33. Slow boil, breakout,slow boil, smaller breakouts • Another title that did nothing at first, but then spiked, dropped, and spiked again. Titles like this are likely to continue selling well, and will often break out into their genre bestseller lists many times.
- 34. Quick build, breakout,slow boil • Sold well right out of the gate, then built, then spiked before dropping back to slow boil. This title is also likely to experience future breakouts as the author releases new titles, does promos, and as new groups of readers discover the book.
- 35. Quick breakout toslow steady boil • Another title that will yield the author significant income over time. Books like this that sell copies every day usually earn solid reviews. Titles like this are primed for breakouts if author takes right steps.
- 36. Slow boil tobreakout • This is the chart for Ruth Ann Nordin (the only author for which I obtained permission to reveal her identity) and her book, An Inconvenient Marriage. This book had already been a bestseller at Kobo 12 months before it suddenly broke out at Apple to become the #1 romance title in the store. The Apple spike was prompted by a new title release, price changes, and possibly also a free promotion for a separate title on her list. More discussion in my “Secrets” book.
- 37. Q: What’s the idealword count for ebooks?
- 38. Do Readers PreferLonger Books? • For the average book, yes. Clear pattern that longer books dominate our bestseller lists
- 39. Do Readers PreferLonger Books? • This looks at bestseller bands. Trend is even more prominent. Ebook buyers prefer longer form.
- 40. 60% of Top20 Bestsellers Longer than 100K Words
- 41. 53% of Top40 Longer than 100K
- 42. Q: Do Romance ReadersPrefer Different Lengths?
- 43. Yes. 90% ofTop 10 Romance Bestsellers under 100,000 words
- 44. 78% of top40 Run under 100K
- 45. Romance Readers Prefer~80,000 Words
- 46. Q: Do erotica readersprefer longer or shorter?
- 47. Average Word Countfor Bestselling Erotica
- 48. Q: What price movesthe most units?
- 49. FREE • FREE movesmore ebooks • ~100X more downloads on average • Powerful platform builder • Powerful sales catalyst for series or deep backlists
- 50. Q: What impact doesprice have on unit sales?
- 51. Impact of Priceon Unit Sales • This set of data examines how price impacts unit sales • 1.0 = normalized reference point. For example, books priced in $2.00-$2.99 price band sell 6.2 times more units than books priced $10.00+ • Key findings: • Low prices sell more units • $1.00-$1.99 price point underperforms
- 52. How Price ImpactsUnits Sold
- 53. Q: How are Smashwordsauthors pricing their books?
- 54. Prices are slowlytrending downward Source: http://blog.smashwords.com/2012/03/does-agency-pricing-lead-to-higher-book.html
- 55. Q: What are themost common price points?
- 56. How Many Booksare Priced at Each Price Point?
- 57. Q: What prices earnthe author the greatest amount of money?
- 58. What Price Earnsthe Author the Greatest Yield? • We know low price yields more unit sales, but what price yields the greatest profit for the author? • Key findings: • $.99 to $1.99 underperforms, about 60% below average • $2.99 to $5.99 appears to be sweet spot for indie authors and small presses • Data indicates that some authors are probably underpricing their works, and might want to experiment with slightly higher prices
- 59. What Price YieldsHighest Earnings?
- 60. Q: How many bookssell well?
- 61. How Many IndieEbooks Sell Well? • Sales distribution is a “power curve” not a “ bell curve” • Key findings: • Most books do not sell well (very important for authors to set realistic expectations, and take long term approach to platform building) • Sales distribution characterized by small minority of titles selling extremely well, thousands of moderate sellers, and then a long tail of poor sellers • Authors should implement best practices (read the Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success for ideas!) to drive their performance to the left of the curve • As books increase sales rank and move to the left of the curve, their actual sales increase quickly, especially in top 5,000
- 62. Sales Distribution Across Smashwords Network (Normalized to 1.0 = average)
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- 65. Romance Sales Across Smashwords Network • Romance, on average, sells 2.2 times better than the average indie ebook at Smashwords (interesting!)
- 66. Erotica Relative Sales Performance
- 67. Q: What’s the optimalprice per word?
- 68. ~ 3.5 centsper 1,000 words • The outlier is a 27,000 word ebook priced at $2.99. Indicates that some authors might have ability to price popular works higher
- 69. Final Thoughts • Data-driven publishing decisions are irrelevant without a great book • Numbers provide hints at reader preferences • Don’t write a longer (bloated) or shorter book unless that’s what the story demands • If your story demands 200,000 words, go for it! • Information, properly applied, can become a viral catalyst • Read the Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success for other viral catalysts
- 70. Free Ebook PublishingResources • NEW! Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success (best practices of successful authors) • Smashwords Book Marketing Guide (how to market any book at no cost) • Smashwords Style Guide (how to format and publish an ebook)
- 71. Thank you forlistening! Connect: Twitter: @markcoker Facebook: facebook.com/markcoker Web: www.smashwords.com Blog: blog.smashwords.com (offers email subscription option) HuffPo: huffingtonpost.com/mark-coker